Odds and Ends

by Geoff Young on Feb 18, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

The other day I asked why there aren’t more blogs about the Padres. Well, now there are! Check ‘em out when you have a moment:

Hot damn, we’re gonna take over the world, I tell ya.

In other news, longtime reader LynchMob points us to this article over at Baseball Prospectus. Seems BPro’s PECOTA projection system sees Dave Roberts as a downgrade from last year’s Padre leadoff hitters. (Not everyone can hit .294/.337/.647 in that role like Khalil Greene did.)

Their system also takes an overly negative view of Mark Loretta and Phil Nevin, among others. My favorite line is this: “Mark Loretta is coming off a career year and isn’t at an age where players continue to get better.” In last year’s book, you may recall, Prospectus called Loretta a “good utility infielder and a mediocre regular”; he promptly took his game to new levels at age 32. One wonders what BPro’s latest comments will inspire him to do for an encore. :-)

The article concludes: “Put it all together and the Padres might have a tough time competing with the Giants and Dodgers in 2005, as the roster stands.” I don’t know about all that, but I do know there are worse things in the world than being underestimated.

A few other items of note:

  • Trendlines (Baseball on Blake Street). Rox blog has an interesting look at NL West over next 10 years. Sees immediate success for Pads, followed by a drought.
  • Defensive Regression Analysis: Complete Series (Hardball Times). This is dense, and I’ll need some time to absorb all of it. But I’m glad to see folks thinking about defense.
  • Fantasy Firefight (Baseball Prospectus). Need a reminder of just how much MLB loves its fans?

That’s all for now. Enjoy the long weekend…

Predicting the Future, Badly

by Geoff Young on Feb 17, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Three years ago today that’s exactly what I was doing, giving WAG projections for the Padres 2002 pitching staff. WAGs on top, reality on the bottom.

                  IP   ERA BB  SO
Jarvis, Ke       180  4.94 55 121
                  35  4.37 10  24

Jones, Bo        180  5.05 52 104
                 108  5.50 21  60

Lawrence, Br     165  3.73 52 122
                 210  3.69 52 149

Tomko, Br        160  4.40 58 119
                 204  4.49 60 126

Tollberg, Br     145  4.06 39 100
                  62  6.13 19  33

Middlebrook, Ja   80  4.81 34  47
                  35  5.09 15  28 (w/SD)
                  51  4.73 22  42 (tot)

Baerlocher, Ry    75  5.18 32  49
                  --  ---- --  --

Hoffman, Tr       65  3.21 18  66
                  59  2.73 18  69

Tankersley, De    65  4.14 27  56
                  51  8.06 40  39

Fikac, Je         60  3.32 24  51
                  69  5.48 34  66

Embree, Al        55  4.91 21  50
                  29  0.94  9  38

Nunez, Jo         55  3.94 22  48
                   1  0.00  1   0

Davey, To         50  4.27 24  45
                  21  5.57 11  21

Herndon, Ju       50  5.19 19  22
                  --  ---- --  --

Clontz, Br        45  4.55 21  32
                  --  ---- --  --

Eaton, Ad         40  5.16 18  29
                  33  5.40 17  25

Bynum, Mi         30  5.15 14  21
                  27  5.27 15  17

Trujillo, J.      30  3.70 12  23
                   3 10.12  6   3

Bartosh, Cl       25  4.12 14  19
                  --  ---- --  --

Howard, Be        25  4.50 17  21
                  11  9.28 14  10

Peavy, Ja         25  4.06 11  18
                  98  4.52 33  90

I did pretty well with Lawrence, Tomko, and Hoffman; okay with Jones, Middlebrook, Eaton, and Bynum; not so good with the rest. I’d say I nailed 3 out of 21. Hey, it’s better odds than the lottery…

You Were Expecting Something Other Than Bullet Points?

by Geoff Young on Feb 16, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

  • Ranking the NL rotations (SI, via BTF). Jacob Luft has the Padres ranked ninth. Behind the Giants? Uh, sure. The Mets at four? Okay, Pedro is great. But Tom Glavine is 39 years old, and Kris Benson, Steve Trachsel, and Victor Zambrano scream mediocrity. For the Friars, Luft seems to like Darrell May too much and Jake Peavy not enough. He also doesn’t give enough credit to the middle three.
  • Scoping the San Diego Rotation (Dodger Thoughts). Jon offers his take on the Friars’ starting five. He likes Peavy, but is underwhelmed by the others. I’ve “helped out” in the comments. Dodger fans attempt to be snarky. Some of them seem to think the Padres view the Dodgers as their arch-rival. Don’t flatter yourselves. :-)
  • Hernandez a ‘Fearless’ Leader (ESPN). In one of the more surreal articles you’re likely to see this winter, Phil Rogers cites Ramon Hernandez as the best at blocking the plate. As my wife said, without prompting, “But that’s the one thing he doesn’t do,” before hastening to add, “although he is cute.”
  • CBS Sportsline offers its Pre-spring Power Rankings (via Athletics Nation). Padres check in at #10.
  • Mailbag: Padres’ punch enough? (Padres.com). Mike Scarr likes Sean Burroughs’ chances to drive the ball more now that he’s out of the leadoff spot. He looks for Xavier Nady to get 350+ at-bats in a reserve role. If we repeat these to ourselves enough, they just might happen!
  • Spring Preview ’05 – San Diego Padres (MSNBC). Tony DeMarco checks in with his thoughts. Good to see I’m not alone in thinking Adam Eaton will break out this year. Be nice if Eaton would do his part and stop making me look bad. ;-) DeMarco seems to really like the addition of Dave Roberts (“should steal 50-plus bases”) and acknowledges that Khalil Greene should have won the ROY award last year. He also notes that “Ryan Klesko needs to make peace with his surroundings” (I think he means Phil Nevin, but the point is the same).

Grady, Riki, and Robert – Oh, My!

by Geoff Young on Feb 15, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Sorry ’bout the extreme lameness of that title. Hard to keep coming up with new ones that don’t stink. Anyway, here ya go…

Random Stuff

by Geoff Young on Feb 14, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Not much going on right now. I had to dig for even this much…

That’s all I’ve got today.

Housekeeping

by Geoff Young on Feb 12, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Updated some stuff over there on the right:

  • Fixed link to USA Today.
  • The excellent Mariners blog formerly known as Leone for Third is now called Lookout Landing.
  • Padres Nation has gone dot com.
  • Added link to The Cubdom, another outstanding blog about the Cubbies (which reminds me, how come we don’t have more blogs about the Padres?). Anyway, check it out; good stuff.
  • This is huge: John Sickels has a new blog called Minor League Ball that promises to be a must-read.
  • Shameless plug for my other blog, Mental Shrapnel. It’s a process journal for a recording project I’m working on; the link is there mostly for my own benefit, but you’re more than welcome to stop on by if interested.
  • Added link to the Baseball Cube, a great resource for minor-league stats, draft info, etc.

I also removed a few links that were either dead or might as well have been. As always, if you find any sites that might interest Ducksnorts readers, please let me know.

P.S. Thanks to whoever entered “You can see what I search on this Geoff? Porn, porn, and more porn!!!!” into the search engine. I needed the laugh. :-)

Fried Friday

by Geoff Young on Feb 11, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Hope those last couple of posts weren’t too depressing. One of the problems with examing something very closely is it’s real easy to find things that don’t look good, or at least not as good as you’d hoped. But we learn from the process, so we persist.

Without rhyme or reason, here is some stuff that has been piling up on the virtual desk over the past week or so:

  • Chicken to Make First Petco Appearance (ESPN). “‘From a bird’s eye perspective, I think it’s an unflappable ballpark,’ said Ted Giannoulas, the San Diego resident who has been entertaining sports fans since 1974 with his brand of fowl humor while dressed in a chicken costume.” Where is PETA and why aren’t they protesting that sentence?
  • Petagine Boston-bound (Japan Times). Former Padre returns to North America. I’m holding out for the SNL episode where he tells a room full of statheads to get a life. And before anyone asks, yes, I’ve kissed a girl.
  • Baseball Amateur Draft is More of A Crapshoot Than (Scout.com). It’s not the most thorough study in the world (those in glass houses…), but Martin Lee comes up with some interesting findings. This is geared toward the Giants and Brian Sabean, but here’s an eye-opener: “Even for teams picking in the first 10 picks, there is about a 1 in 9 chance of picking a Star. Given that these top picks get anywhere from $3-5 million in bonus and contract, a regularly lousy team could end up spending $30 million just to get that one star in 9 years of drafting.”
  • Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders (Baseball Musings). Of the 41 players ranked, who finished last? Ryan Klesko – oops, pow, surprise! On the bright side, we may finally have found a defensive metric that matches what our eyes tell us.
  • The Best and Worst Teams of the Trade (Hardball Times). From yesterday’s comments: “Studes over at Hardball Times has examined every trade made in MLB from 1961-2002 and found that the Padres are third best (behind only the Royals and ChiSox) in terms of a measure he calls Net WSAB (has something to do with win shares).” Those of you still recovering from our look at the Pads’ recent drafting history might want to read this.

There it is. Have an excellent weekend, and we’ll get it going again on Monday…

Pitchers Drafted: 1995-2004

by Geoff Young on Feb 10, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

I promised it would be better, and it is:

Yr Rd Player            IP   ERA  WHIP
95  4 Kolb,Br         14.0  4.50 1.929
95  6 Walker,Ke       92.1  4.29 1.375
96  9 Middlebrook,Ja  54.2  5.10 1.354
97  2 Howard,Be       45.1  4.96 1.610
97  9 Herndon,Ju      42.2  6.33 1.875
97 11 Maurer,Da       19.2  5.49 1.627
98 16 Watkins,St      14.1  6.28 1.465
98 17 Lawrence,Br    738.0  3.91 1.310
98 19 Fikac,Je        95.1  4.34 1.343
98 30 Cyr,Er           6.0 10.50 2.000
99  1 Bynum,Mi        64.0  7.73 1.734
99 15 Peavy,Ja       458.1  3.53 1.294
00 13 Germano,Ju      21.1  8.86 2.109
Total               1666.0  4.26 1.375

The bad news is, only two pitchers drafted and signed by the Padres over the past 10 years have logged 100+ IP for the big club. The good news is, their names are Brian Lawrence and Jake Peavy.

One first-round pick has made it to the big club, and it wasn’t pretty. Last Padre first rounder to pitch more than 100 innings for San Diego? 1991 draftee Joey Hamilton.

But hey, who needs a first rounder when you snag guys like Lawrence and Peavy in the teens? Peavy compares pretty well with the first pitcher taken in 1999:

            G    IP  ERA  WHIP  H/9 BB/9  K/9
Peavy,Ja   76 458.1 3.53 1.294 8.34 3.30 8.22
Beckett,Jo 77 430.1 3.49 1.257 7.86 3.45 9.22

Hard to judge the 2003 and 2004 drafts just yet, but only 21 players drafted by the Padres since 1995 have made it to the big club. Of those, only Ben Davis, Sean Burroughs, Xavier Nady, Khalil Greene, Lawrence, and Peavy have had a significant impact.

The good news? All but Davis are currently with the team, although what they plan to do with Nady remains anyone’s guess…

Position Players Drafted: 1995-2004

by Geoff Young on Feb 09, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

We’ve been lamenting how thin the Padres farm system is and how few impact players it’s produced over the years. But what are the hard numbers?

Following is a list of every position player drafted and signed by the Padres from 1995 to 2004 who reached the big club. Stats are those compiled while in San Diego.

Yr Rd Player         G   AB HR   BA  OBP  SLG
95  1 Davis,Be     258  845 19 .250 .332 .367
95  2 Alvarez,Ga    11   13  0 .154 .214 .231
95 30 Allen,Du       9   12  0 .000 .143 .000
97  1 Nicholson,Ke  37   97  1 .216 .255 .330
98  1 Burroughs,Se 339 1232 10 .289 .345 .374
98 42 Pelaez,Al      3    8  0 .250 .250 .250
00  2 Nady,Xa      145  449 12 .265 .319 .396
02  1 Greene,Kh    159  549 17 .266 .340 .441
Total              961 3205 59 .267 .333 .383

Wait, it gets worse. I won’t even get into Todd Helton, the #8 pick overall in 1995 (and the Pads’ second round pick in 1992). But here’s what Jose Cruz, the player taken after Davis in 1995 has done:

Yr Rd Player      G   AB  HR   BA  OBP  SLG
95  1 Cruz,Jo  1058 3826 175 .250 .336 .455

I guess if you want a silver lining–and I’m really reaching here–it’s that Greene is about to pass Davis as the most prolific home run hitter the Padres have drafted over the past 10 years. And if Greene hits 12 homers this year, he’ll have the most bombs by a Padre draftee as a Padre since 1985 round 12 pick Jerald Clark.

Last time the Padres drafted a guy who hit more than 30 career home runs for the big club? They did it twice in 1981 with first rounder Kevin McReynolds and third rounder Tony Gwynn.

Ugh.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the pitchers. I promise, it’ll be better.

BA’s Padres Chat

by Geoff Young on Feb 08, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Excellent chat with Kevin Goldstein yesterday to follow up on his Top 10 list. I strongly encourage you to read the transcript if you haven’t already, but here are a few highlights:

  • Likes Paul McAnulty’s bat but questions his glove. Also notes his ranking at #10 is an indictment of the Padres system.
  • Mentions that some in Pads’ front office see Freddy Guzman’s upside as Juan Pierre and think that Guzman is their best prospect. [Ed note: He draws more walks than Pierre, and I see him as more of a cross between Pierre and Quilvio Veras. That's his best case, and it's not an impact player. Sorry, it just isn't.]
  • Sees Josh Barfield’s 2003 season as more representative of his abilities than last year’s showing: “His batting average was really the only dip in the road last year — he made progress in many other aspects of his game — most importantly power and defense.” [Of course, Ducksnorts readers already knew that. ;-) ] Calls him a “legitimate .270-.290 hitter with 20+ home run power.” Included Barfield in his personal top 50 prospects.
  • Mentions J.J. Furmaniak as a possible future utility guy at the big-league level.
  • Likes Tagg Bozied’s power and indicates that his fast start last year was due to a change in approach at the plate, resulting in better bat speed. Also notes that he, Jon Knott, and Xavier Nady pretty much have no place to go in the San Diego organization. [Must resist urge to bring up contracts of Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin.]
  • Mentions pitcher Ben Kroschell as one to watch. Also Jared Wells, whose numbers have yet to match his stuff.
  • Defends the pick of Matt Bush, whom he envisions as a “very good defensive shortstop who hits 6th or 7th in the lineup.” Says his arm is a “true 75-80.”
  • Nobody seems too excited about Tim Stauffer: “Fantastic control and a deep arsenal project him as a starter, but he’s not a blow them away guy than makes one think of him as a one or a two.” [I'm thinking Brian Lawrence with more oomph and less movement on his fastball.]
  • On Brad Baker: “I don’t see Baker as a closer, and that might just be because i see closers as fireballers.” [Fortunately, the Padres don't seem to share this sentiment; see Hoffman, Trevor.]
  • Notes that the Padres “seem to get more talent from non-traditional areas than most.”
  • David Pauley would have been in the 11-15 range if he hadn’t been given away to the Red Sox. [Given the paucity of talent in the system, this comes as a shock to me; I'd have guessed around 6-10. Maybe Kevin Towers saw something in Pauley that gave him pause?]
  • Calls U2 “utter frauds.” [They're not for everyone, but "frauds"? I'm no great fan myself, but those cats can flat-out play.]
  • USD alum Greg Sain doesn’t make the top 30.
  • On Travis Chick: “I have no clue what the Marlins were thinking, and from everyone I talked to, neither does anyone else. I think Chick is an outstanding prospects and some compare his total package to that of Curt Schilling, which is high praise indeed, but also far too much to expect at this point from a 20-year-old with about 1/2 of a great season.” [Did beer come shooting out of your nose, too? Schilling. Oh my. Keep an eye on him.]
  • Mentions OF Ben Johnson and LHP Fabian Jimenez as sleepers.

That’s the quick and dirty. Seriously, go read the whole thing over at BA. Good stuff…