by Geoff Young on Mar 27, 2005
John Sickels has posted his community projections for Khalil Greene. They peg him at .279/.352/.458. Sickels himself expects a slight decrease in power this year due to his home park and looks to 2006 for a breakout. My personal expectation is that Greene is going to shock some folks with numbers around .274/.345/.490. I’m perfectly well aware that this is above and beyond what most rational people are projecting, but I’m heavily influenced by four factors:
- Greene has shown a good ability to make adjustments. He hit .293/.351/.540 after the All-Star break last year; in 2003 he hit .275/.327/.406 at Double-A Mobile, and .288/.346/.442 after promotion to Triple-A Portland.
- Lots of doubles, improving plate discipline. This is always a good sign.
- Natural strength. He did put a ball on top of the Western Metal Supply Co. building in left field last year. It landed foul, but that was as impressive a shot as I’ve seen at Petco. Greene isn’t a kid with marginal power; he’s a guy making the adjustment to big-league pitching and learning how to drive the ball at that level.
- We still don’t have enough data points on Petco to know exactly how it will play going forward. If last year was even a little bit of a fluke in terms of being an extreme pitchers park, it’s not unreasonable to think he could hit 10-12 homers at home, as opposed to the three he hit as a rookie. If he does that, repeats his road performance, and stays healthy, 25+ home runs isn’t out of the question.
Okay, I realize that’s a lot of “if’s” but I don’t think this scenario is as far fetched as it might initially seem. Let me put it this way: If Greene significantly outperforms most projections for him, I won’t be among those surprised. On a more global note, this reminds me of one of the shortcomings of the current “stathead revolution”: In predicting the future, we tend to use previous outputs as inputs into systems that deliver more outputs. This makes sense because (a) we know that much can be learned about the future by looking at the past and (b) it’s difficult to quantify other factors that may deserve consideration. There’s not much to say about the first point, but with regard to the second, the fact that something isn’t easily quantifiable doesn’t justify its exclusion from an equation. Dismissing intangibles or whatever else doesn’t show up in the stat line makes no more sense to me than taking it on a scout’s faith that a kid’s 95+ mph fastball alone is going to make him a front-line starter in the big leagues. Numbers may not lie, but they can withhold the truth. Unfortunately I’m much better at asking questions than answering them, so I’m not sure how to resolve this dilemma.
On another note, if anyone else has projections for Greene, feel free to leave ‘em in the comments.
by Geoff Young on Mar 27, 2005
[Ducksnorts has been around since before the Padres' last World Series appearance, and the blog was started while Rickey Henderson and Dave Magadan were still on the active roster. I don't like to get too hung up on the past but every now and then we'll be digging up material "from the vault" as a reminder of where we've been. What follows is the inaugural Ducksnorts blog entry, originally posted June 12, 2001. Enjoy!]
We just got another dog this weekend, so I’ve taken to going home for lunch to check up on him and our other dog. Which also means I’m getting to watch some of the College World Series.
This afternoon I got to see a couple innings of the Tulane-Cal State Fullerton game. I saw Padres first-round pick Jake Gautreau bat. Good balance, good patience, nice approach to the ball. He hit a sharp grounder up the middle that looked like a base hit, but Fullerton second baseman David Bacani came out of nowhere to make a spectacular diving stop and turn it into an inning-ending double play.
In the bottom half of the inning Gautreau made a fine play of his own, sprawling for a bunt that was popped up into foul territory off third base. Bacani continued his heroics later in the inning, smacking a three-run homer that put Fullerton up, 6-0. Bacani is a senior, and I don’t believe he was drafted [Ed note: Bacani was drafted by the Mets in the 22nd round], but he made an impression on me when I saw him play back in 1999, and I still think he could do something at the next level if given the chance.
One other thing I have to mention is ESPN’s new center field camera angle. I’m all for innovation but only when it actually improves on what’s currently in place. It’s not as annoying as listening to Ray Knight (what is?) but one of the things I like to watch in the pitcher-batter matchup is how the ball breaks as it moves toward home plate. That’s easy enough to do with the camera low over the center field fence looking from right behind the pitcher into the catchers mitt, but good luck with this new angle. The only advantage I can see to what ESPN is doing now is that it’s easier to tell whether a pitch is inside, over the plate, or outside. That’s nice in limited quantities (watch the Cubs on WGN for a good example of how to use this technique properly) but it gets old pretty quickly. It’s disorienting to try and track the ball from that angle. Or maybe it’s just me.
Okay, enough of my whining. I’m starting to sound like Andy Rooney. Oh well, at least I don’t sound like Ray Knight.
by Geoff Young on Mar 25, 2005
Hi. I can’t come to the blog right now, but if you’d like to talk about tonight’s game between the Padres and the Oakland Athletics (6 p.m. on Channel 4), or just make snide remarks about my wig, please feel free to leave a comment. Keep it real, my brothers and sisters. Keep it funky. Keep it real funky.
by Geoff Young on Mar 24, 2005
Two articles on recently acquired Adam Hyzdu:
Also, I’ve added a few more links over there on the right. Thanks for the suggestions; keep ‘em coming!
by Geoff Young on Mar 24, 2005
Chin Waggers are playing tomorrow and Saturday night at Janie’s in Chula Vista if anyone’s interested in seeing some old guys make a lot of noise and generally act like idiots. I’ll be busting out my new “I Have Gas” t-shirt. Hey, we’re all about class.
Anyway, here are a few items of potential interest:
Finally, I am slowly getting all my links together over there on the right. If there’s something you like to read that I’m missing, please let me know.
by Geoff Young on Mar 23, 2005
John Sickels has posted some projections for Sean Burroughs. Here’s the piece that led to the community projections.
So, anyone here want to give it a go? Assume 500 AB, give me BA/OBP/SLG. Here’s my guess:
.304/.362/.432
I know it’s high, but I’m looking for a breakout year. How about you?
by Geoff Young on Mar 23, 2005
So are you itching for the regular season to begin, or is that just me? Quick reminder that my Padres Preview is up over at Baseball Think Factory. Check it out, leave some comments.
A few items of note:
- San Diego Padres ace Peavy feels he’ll be ready for home opener (Canadian Press). From trainer Todd Hutcheson: “Let’s say we’re cautiously optimistic.” This would be great, but there’s no hurry. The main goal is to make sure Peavy makes 30+ starts.
- Padres send Neal to Red Sox for Hyzdu (NC Times). Blaine Neal‘s departure leaves Steve Sparks and Randy Williams as the final contestants in “Who Wants to Be in a Big-League Bullpen?” Neal had a 6.43 ERA in camp. Sparks and Williams have ERAs over 7.00, and Williams injured his hip in Sunday’s game at Yuma. Adam Hyzdu, now 33 years old, broke Ken Griffey Jr.’s home run record in high school. In 318 big-league at-bats, he’s hit .233/.314/.462. He’s mainly a corner outfielder, although Kevin Towers calls him “experienced insurance at Triple-A” in case something should happen to Dave Roberts, so presumably he can play a passable center.
- Outfielder Hyzdu traded to San Diego for RHP Neal (Lakeland Ledger). A look from Boston’s perspective. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein says of Hyzdu: “His skill set is somewhat redundant with Jay Payton‘s at this point so it was going to be difficult for him to make the club or have a real role on this club until we had an injury.” This one also notes that Neal is out of options. It also shaves two years off of Neal’s age, but that’s another story.
- San Francisco 5, San Diego 3 (ESPN). Three hits from Brian Giles, two from Geoff Blum. Game was televised on Channel 4. Didn’t notice a huge difference in Adam Eaton‘s style but I wasn’t paying real close attention. Got my first look at Chris Hammond, and his change-up is as good as everyone says. He is not a lefty specialist.
- Nady may be Padres’ guy at hot corner (U-T). This one showed up a few days ago and folks got excited at the headline. If you read the article, though, you discover that they’re talking about Opening Day, when left-hander Joe Kennedy takes the mound for the Rockies. There’s also an article in today’s print version that talks about Sean Burroughs‘ search for more power. Writer Tim Sullivan notes that Burroughs is younger than last year’s ROYs, Jason Bay and Bobby Crosby. He also mentions Adrian Beltre as someone who blossomed after several years of holding pattern (although it should be noted that Beltre at least hit 20+ homers three times in his career before last year’s explosion). Burroughs, who didn’t want to tinker with his swing during the season last year, is working with hitting coach Dave Magadan to “eliminate some of the extraneous motion that has extended the length of his swing and expanded its arc.” Great quote from Towers: “I don’t care if he hits no home runs. If he ends up leading the league in doubles, I’ll be very happy.”
- Surgery leaves frustrated Bonds at ‘square one’ (ESPN). As you probably know by now, Barry Bonds may miss much or all of the 2005 season. As a Padres fan, I’m ecstatic. As a baseball fan, I’m a bit disappointed. Bonds sure looks and sounds like a guy who needs to be out of the spotlight for a while. Yeah, you kinda wish maybe he’d handle himself a little better (is 703 homers not enough to remove the chip from one’s shoulder?), but I also think he’s got some valid gripes about his portrayal by the media. It’s one thing for a guy like Ryan Leaf, who has accomplished absolutely nothing, to pull attitude. But let’s not forget that Bonds is one of the greatest ever to play the game of baseball. I hope he comes back and breaks Hank Aaron’s home run record. But maybe he can wait until the Giants are out of the race, right?
by Geoff Young on Mar 22, 2005
When the light’s on, it’s less dangerous. I feel stupid and contagious. But enough about me.
Welcome to Ducksnorts. To my current readers, this is the cool thing I’ve been talking about for a while. Was it good for you? (Hint: the answer is yes.) To those of you just stumbling onto us for the first time, glad you could make it. Grab a drink and sit a spell. Go on, any drink will do. We’ll wait.
Okay, so let’s get this awkward stuff out of the way. Things to know:
- Ducksnorts was born in 1997 with a rant about Hideki Irabu.
- About the name: A ducksnort is a bloop base hit that falls between fielders. The original idea was that Ducksnorts would cover stuff that the “big boppers” (i.e., mainstream media) might miss. Plus it sounds funny.
- I like email. I don’t always respond right away (family, job, etc.), but I do read everything. Drop me a line; the addy’s over there on the right.
- I grew up in LA and rooted for the Dodgers as a kid. I saw the error of my ways in the early ’90s and have been a Padre fan ever since.
- I’m 35 years old; married, with two dogs (adopted).
- I play guitar and “sing” in a local San Diego band, Chin Waggers. I’ll geek out on music every now and then, so bear with me. Also, I’m not above pimping my band’s gigs.
And probably the most important things to know about Ducksnorts are that it’s a work in progress and that it doesn’t happen without you. So if you have any ideas (and I know you do), please leave ‘em in the comments or shoot me an email. My goal is to make Ducksnorts a great place to come and talk baseball, so let me know you’re out there.
Finally, I need to say thank you to a few people:
- Christian, Evan, and everyone at A-B/MVN
- All my readers; you know who you are
- My wife, family, and friends
- Anyone else I’ve forgotten
That should cover it. Thanks again for visiting. Back to baseball…
by Geoff Young on Mar 20, 2005
Thanks to a late night out with my singer on Saturday, I overslept on Sunday morning and didn’t make it to Yuma till the top of the second. On the bright side, we got to play a semi-acoustic version of “Stacy’s Mom” to a near-empty house in an obscure part of town.
As for the game against the D’backs, the Padres won it, 17-9. Steve Sparks started and pitched reasonably well. Sparks flew through the first three innings, before sparks flew in the fourth (oh, how clever we are). Randy Williams, fighting for the last bullpen spot, worked a scoreless fifth before losing the plate and being victimized by a couple of misplayed fly balls in the sixth. Williams walked the first three batters of the frame, then served up a drive to left that Jon Knott broke the wrong way for and turned into a bases-clearing double. The next batter hit an RBI triple to left-center on a ball that Knott got a late jump on, tying the game at 9-9.
Xavier Nady got the start in center field and hit a two-run bomb to left-center. Two minor leaguers who don’t show up on anyone’s prospect lists that impressed were third baseman Brett Bonvechio and right fielder Drew Macias. The former hit a mammoth home run just to the left of dead center, while the latter knocked three hits, including a homer to right. Bonvechio was Boston’s 37th round pick in 2000 out of a Santa Clara high school. He hit .237/.309/.395 as a 22-year-old in the Midwest League last year, and Kevin Goldstein calls him an organizational guy, so there’s probably not much here. Interestingly, Bonvechio is the guy the Padres received from the Red Sox for the guy (Henri Stanley) they flipped for Dave Roberts. As for Macias, Goldstein doesn’t seem too impressed with him either. Macias hit .266/.340/.374 as a 21-year-old in the Midwest League and doesn’t possess overwhelming tools. The Padres drafted him in the 22nd round in 2001 but he didn’t sign, so they drafted him again the following year, this time in the 35th round.
Point of all this isn’t to waste your time with guys who are longshots to make significant contributions at the big-league level, but to let you know that these two kids had a real nice showing in a game that featured players who are household names. Even if Bonvechio and Macias don’t make it to the Show, they’ll always be able to say they knocked one out while wearing a Padre uni, alongside the likes of Phil Nevin and Sean Burroughs.
And lest we get too sentimental, I should also note that I got my first look at catcher George Kottaras, who is rated by some as a better prospect than Josh Barfield. (I’m impressed with what Kottaras has done so far, but in my book, catchers are like pitchers: wait till Double-A before getting too excited.) At the plate, Kottaras looks very comfortable. He’s got good balance and little wasted movement. That said, he took some ugly hacks on Sunday. Not surprising, given that he hasn’t yet had a single at-bat above Low-A ball. Anyway, it was just one game; how he does at Elsinore this year obviously will give us a much better idea.
by Geoff Young on Mar 20, 2005
It’s up: Looking Forward to 2005: San Diego Padres Preview. Have a read, let me know how you like it. Thanks again to everyone for the excellent suggestions. I tried to incorporate as many of them as possible. Sorry if I missed yours.
Yuma, Anyone?
I’m heading out there for this afternoon’s game against the Snakes. I’ll be wearing a Chin Waggers T-shirt:
Stop by and say hey if you find yourself in the neighborhood.
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