BA’s Top 10 Prospects

by Geoff Young on Feb 07, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Read ‘em and weep.

  1. Josh Barfield, 2b
  2. Freddy Guzman, of
  3. George Kottaras, c
  4. Travis Chick, rhp
  5. Tim Stauffer, rhp
  6. Matt Bush, ss
  7. Justin Germano, rhp
  8. Sean Thompson, lhp
  9. Brad Baker, rhp
  10. Paul McAnulty, of/1b

General impressions: Some people are down on Barfield because he lost a lot in terms of batting average last year. I look at the fact that none of his other skills deteriorated on moving up a level (.395 XBH/H last year vs .368 the year before; .092 BB/AB vs .091) and his defense improved. Plus, with Mark Loretta firmly entrenched with the big club, there is no hurry with Barfield.

Guzman is too high (I still see him as a borderline starter), Stauffer is too low. Kottaras is starting to garner much-deserved attention and could be at the top of next year’s list. Calling McAnulty an outfielder is a bit of a stretch; on the other hand, John Kruk managed to have a decent career out there so ya never know.

The other thing I notice is that this is a very thin list. Barfield and maybe Kottaras or Stauffer are the only guys who have a chance to be impact players. And I’m being generous with the latter two. The Pads need to do a better job of drafting and developing players. Sure, some guys are contributing now and some others landed the club a legit middle-of-the-order hitter. But when you’re operating on a tight budget, you can’t afford to let the cupboard get empty, right?

Of the Padres’ top picks in the draft over the past 10 years, only four have made the big leagues (Ben Davis, Kevin Nicholson, Sean Burroughs, and Khalil Greene). Only Burroughs and Greene have been real contributors, although Stauffer is very close.

Kevin Goldstein, who put together this list, will be chatting about it today at noon, PT, over at BA. I won’t be able to participate, but maybe you can. Go represent!

Go Read Some Stuff

by Geoff Young on Feb 04, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Happy Friday. Here are some interesting tidbits I’ve come across recently:

  • Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders (Baseball Musings). Brian Giles behind Gary Sheffield? No worries, Brian, you’re in good company – Vlad Guerrero, J.D. Drew, Bobby Abreu. Some really weird numbers.
  • Talking Shop with the Big Boys (Dodger Thoughts). Jon offers some thoughts on a seminar he attended on sports coverage in the 21st century. Seems a lot of folks still don’t really know or care about blogs and blogging. Their loss.
  • Interview with the Umpire Information System Operator (Mike’s Baseball Rants). What is an Umpire Information System operator? He’s the guy that runs QuesTec, Curt Schilling’s favorite machine. Very detailed look at what his job entails and how the system works.

University of Texas at Tony Gwynn Stadium this weekend: 6 PM tonight, 1 PM tomorrow and Sunday.

Flop Swap

by Geoff Young on Feb 03, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

The Padres have dealt Jake Gautreau (2001, 14th pick overall–24 slots ahead of David Wright and twice the price) to Cleveland for Corey Smith (2000, 26th pick overall). Smith, who turns 23 in April, was rated as the Indians’ #13 prospect in the Baseball America 2004 Prospect Handbook. Some excerpts from his entry in that book:

While Smith clearly has good tools, the Indians are still waiting for him to have a breakthrough season… He has above-average bat speed and strength, but hasn’t translated his raw power into homers… Smith also has a plus arm but is a defensive liability at the hot corner. Poor footwork and uncertain hands have led to him leading his league’s third baseman in errors in each of his four pro seasons.

Comments from the 2002 book, in which Smith was rated the Tribe’s top prospect, are more encouraging:

The muscular Smith was a shortstop in high school, but the Indians wasted no time in moving him to third base, where they feel his size and power potential make him a more natural fit. In Smith’s two years as a pro, the transition to third base has gone much better offensively than defensively. Club officials downplay his struggles with the glove, partly because his upside with the bat is so vast… He loves the game and works hard to improve his weaknesses. He’s intelligent and has tremendous athleic ability as well as an aptitude for learning… He seems to rise to the occasion offensively and is a very tough out with men on base. Despite his obvious physical gifts, his biggest strength may be his passion. He’s a potential franchise cornerstone once he reaches the big leagues.

This strikes me as a classic “change of scenery” type of trade, along the lines of Ben Howard for Blaine Neal last spring. Give a former hot prospect a shot to start over in a new organization and have a career. With luck, both young men will be able to take advantage of their new situations and make something happen.

The folks over at Tribe Report like the deal from the Indians’ standpoint. Ryan at the Indians Compendium offers his take, which is basically the same as mine. Probably much ado about nothing, but you never know…

Slow News Day

by Geoff Young on Feb 02, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Watched the July 5 Brian Lawrence/Roger Clemens matchup last night. Pads won, 2-1, to take sole possession of first place in the NL West. Coincidentally, in my post from the day after that game I took a mid-season look at my BTF Padres Preview.

Which reminds me, keep those comments coming for this year’s edition. Which in turn reminds me, if an anvil falls on your head in a forest, does it still hurt like hell?

A few items of note over at Padres.com:

  • Prospect rebounding for Padres Hooray, a Javier Martinez sighting.
  • Mailbag: Getting into positions Couple of gems here: “Burroughs needs to be more aggressive, while Nevin has to adjust to the reduced power numbers at PETCO.” Amen, brother. It also looks like Xavier Nady has the inside track for fourth outfielder. Baby steps.
  • Around the Horn: Outfielders Mostly fluffy piece with one encouraging note: “In 2005, Nady will not be thrust into a starting role, but manager Bruce Bochy has already said that he’d like to get his power threat between 300-400 at-bats.”

That’s all for now. Please use this link for suggestions about this year’s BTF Padres preview. Use the regular comment link below if you want to talk about anvils.

Padres Preview Ideas?

by Geoff Young on Feb 01, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

I’ll be doing the Pads’ preview for BTF once again this year. Thought I’d check to see if anyone has ideas on stuff we need to address. Here are a few key points I’m thinking about:

  • Who/what was responsible for the big turnaround in 2004, and will the club build on momentum in 2005?
  • How Petco Park played in its first season and will it continue to play that way in the future?
  • Khalil Greene and Jake Peavy were the young players to emerge last year; who will it be this year?
  • Dave Freakin’ Roberts.
  • Does Ryan Klesko have anything left in the tank?
  • Are Scott Linebrink and Akinori Otsuka for real?
  • What happened to Josh Barfield?
  • Never mind Barfield, is everyone convinced about Mark Loretta?
  • Who are the prospects most likely to help in 2005 and beyond?

If you think of anything else we should talk about, leave a comment. The article won’t run till March, so we’ve got some time. If you need a refresher, here are the last two I did:

Odds and Ends
  • Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders (Baseball Musings). David Pinto continues his look at defense. Center fielders who ranked higher than Jay Payton in 2004: Wily Mo Pena, Corey Patterson, Andruw Jones. Those who ranked lower than Payton: everybody else.
  • Probabilistic Runs? (Chronicles of the Lads). Angels blogger attempts to convert David’s values into something more tangible, i.e., runs. Khalil Greene saved the Padres about 2 1/2 runs in 2004 over what an average shortstop would have allowed.
  • Sutcliffe leaves Channel 4 (NC Times). Too busy working with minor-league pitchers and ESPN. “…Mark Grant and Tony Gwynn will pick up the bulk of Sutcliffe’s workload with new radio voice Tim Flannery available for duty.” Sutcliffe for Gwynn? Works for me.
  • All About Arbitration (Hardball Times). An informative look at arbitration (that thing the Padres don’t do) and the results it has yielded over the years.

That’s all for now. Don’t forget to leave your suggestions for this year’s Padre preview in the comments.

From the Archives: Deivi Cruz

by Geoff Young on Jan 31, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Jan. 31, 2002 — Three years ago today we were welcoming Deivi Cruz to Padre Nation, optimistic that he would help the Friars in a support role. What we said:

Padres inked former Tiger shortstop Deivi Cruz to a 1-year deal worth $600K. Good low-risk signing. The right-handed hitter will back up left-handed hitters Ramon Vazquez and Sean Burroughs on the left side of the infield… He’s nothing special, but with a grand total of 36 big-league at-bats under the collective belts of Vazquez and Burroughs, a guy like Cruz makes a lot of sense.

There’s the optimism. What we also said:

If Cruz gets more than 250 or so plate appearances, something has gone horribly wrong.

There’s the realism. And we concluded:

As for Cruz, I see nothing but positives. He’ll be reunited with former Tiger shortstop Alan Trammell. He should be hungry and eager to prove himself after slowly going down the tubes in Detroit… Basically, he’s a great insurance policy with very little risk.

What actually happened, of course, is that Cruz wasted logged 547 PAs in a Padre uni in 2002, hacking his way to a .263/.294/.366 performance while the club’s best defensive shortstop, Vazquez, played second base.

Lesson learned: This still was a good low-risk signing. The failure was in having Cruz play everyday. As a relatively inexpensive insurance policy, he made a lot of sense. As a starting shortstop, he was a disaster. Think of it this way: You buy a six-pack of Rolling Rock because it’s on sale at Longs. If you run out of the good stuff (Boddington’s, Newcastle, Sam Adams), you can open the fridge and find something other than your brother-in-law’s old Coors Light. Cruz was our Rolling Rock. If deployed properly, he would’ve been a bargain. As it is, he left a bad taste in our mouth.

In unrelated news, Dave Roberts is excited about playing for his hometown Padres. Here’s hoping he makes us all look like raving idiots.

Random Stuff

by Geoff Young on Jan 27, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

No time to talk. Here are a few items that have caught my eye over the past couple weeks. Enjoy!

  • Thompson Tuesdays (Yahoo). Second installment is much better than the first. Thoughts on helping teach kids learn to play ball, off-season workouts, and the life of a minor leaguer.
  • Are you Positive? (Baseball Musings). This one’s been out there for a while, but it’s still relevant. David Pinto expresses his concern over false positives in steroid testing. There may not be a good solution.
  • Rock Paper Scissors Spock Lizard. Forget where I found this. Has anybody played it?
  • “What Goes On” – The Beatles Anomalies List. A lengthy collection of “little sounds and curiosities which can be found within the Beatles’ recordings.”

Bits and Pieces

by Geoff Young on Jan 25, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Two weeks later and I’m still fighting this bug. A few quick hits, and I’ll try to put something more substantial together tomorrow:

  • Probabilistic Model of Range (Baseball Musings). David Pinto takes a real close look at defense. I’d try to describe the work he’s doing, but I wouldn’t do it justice. Fascinating stuff. If you’re up for some numbers and ideas, check it out.
  • Drying Off the Spitty 1910s, Part 1: The Seasons (Hardball Times). Steve Treder debunks some assumptions about when the modern live ball era began.
  • Sean Thompson journal (Yahoo). Padre prospect shares his thoughts on baseball. Not a lot of insight, but it’s a nice idea.
  • Sparks signs minor league deal with Padres (Yahoo). “Sparks would make $550,000 if he makes the big league roster, and can make another $200,000 in performance bonuses. If he’s in the minors, he’ll make $15,000 a month.” Can anyone seriously envision a scenario in which Sparks makes the club? Nevermind, I don’t want to know.

Back to bed. Until next time…

Miguel Asencio: International Man of Mystery

by Geoff Young on Jan 21, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

My readers rock. Thanks to y’all, this blog pretty much writes itself some days.

LynchMob points us to this article over at Baseball Prospectus. It praises Kevin Towers for the job he’s done signing good players on the cheap, citing in particular Chris Hammond. But here’s the real attention grabber:

He reminds me of Johan Santana in 2000, who like [Miguel] Asencio was a 21-year-old pitcher who struggled after he was plucked out of A-ball in the Rule 5 draft.

Oh. My.

The above is actually a quote from the Baseball Prospectus 2004. How did the two compare in the minors?

          IP  ERA  H/9 BB/9  K/9 WHIP
Asencio  444 3.22 7.86 4.13 6.58 1.33
Santana  383 4.56 8.70 3.57 9.41 1.36

Okay, first of all, Santana is a freak. His ERA in the big leagues is a full point lower than it was in the minors. Plus all but 49 of his minor league innings came in A-ball. That’s not the usual route to a Cy Young Award.

As for Asencio, he had a much lower ERA than Santana and was tougher to hit. On the downside, Asencio’s command isn’t anywhere near Santana’s. Higher walk rate, much lower strikeout rate. Nice surface numbers in 2001, but he was in a pitcher-friendly league (FSL) and his peripherals were just average. How about the scouting reports?

From John Sickels’ 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook:

He throws an easy 92 MPH, hitting 94 MPH on occasion, with more velocity possible as he fills out. His changeup is very good considering his experience level, and he made strides with the curve last year… He knows how to change speeds, and I’m optimistic about his long-term prospects, though I want to see better ratios before going overboard with the grade.

Sickels gave Asencio a grade of B-minus, the same as he gave that year for Padre farmhands Tagg Bozied, Eric Cyr, Ben Howard, and Ramon Vazquez.

From Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2002:

He has two pitches that are ready for [the major-league] level: a 90-94 mph fastball that chews up bats and the best changeup in the system. Ascencio occasionally will flash a plus curveball but is far from doing so on a consistent basis.

BA rated him the #6 prospect in the Royals system, behind Roscoe Crosby and ahead of Ken Harvey. The #6 prospect for the Pads that year was the aforementioned Howard.

Well, Ben Howard is considerably less exciting than Johan Santana. Still, the reports read like those of a guy who if healthy belongs in the big leagues.

Bottom line: The Padres gave up nothing to get Asencio, and he could end up being useful. That’s a gamble you take every time.

Minor Deals

by Geoff Young on Jan 20, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

According to Padres.com, the Friars have inked right-handers Joe Dawley, Brian Falkenborg and Danny Patterson, and catcher Michel Hernandez to minor league deals. (Thanks to Derek in yesterday’s comments for the heads-up on this item.)

Dawley, Falkenborg, and Hernandez all have had cups of coffee. Patterson has 350 big-league relief appearances under his belt over a 9-year career with the Rangers and Tigers. According to Baseball-Reference.com, among his most similar pitchers are Jim Mecir, and former Padres Donne Wall and Brian Boehringer. Seems like a good insurance policy for Blaine Neal/Rudy Seanez.

In other news, John Sickels profiles hurler Tim Stauffer. Sickels notes Stauffer’s command, instincts, and work ethic as strengths. Sickels is concerned about some of Stauffer’s ratios at Triple-A, particularly the home run rate, and cautions against rushing him to the big leagues despite good surface numbers at Portland last year. Sickels sees him as a future #3 starter.