Interview: Will Carroll

by Geoff Young on Apr 04, 2005 (3) Comments

Back in March, we took a look at Will Carroll’s Padres Team Health Report [subscription] at Baseball Prospectus. Will is the author of Saving the Pitcher and The Juice: The Real Story of Baseball’s Drug Problems. Recently he was gracious enough to answer some questions for Ducksnorts in a Q&A format. Enjoy!

Ducksnorts: Thanks very much for your time. Can you say anything about Jake Peavy’s workload thus far and what impact it might have on his future?

Will Carroll: The big jump from 98 to 195 innings [Ed note: from 2002 to 2003] is worrisome, especially after some arm problems in the following season. He came back well. I’d like to see him get a bit more efficient, clean up his mechanics just a tad more, and then I think he’ll be even better and an even safer bet to collect a Cy or two.

DS: You don’t expect Ryan Klesko’s power to return. Are there any players in recent history who have had injuries similar to Klesko’s, and if so, how did they perform after getting hurt?

WC: There’s not really good comps for him. Add in the ballpark effects and it gets even worse. Spring has been kind, and if his shoulder really has healed, that’s certainly a positive. His situation isn’t as serious as [Richie] Sexson or [Shawn] Green, so dial that back and that’s the best comp.

DS: Can Dave Roberts keep his hamstrings healthy and will it matter?

WC: It will certainly matter. The difference between Roberts and … who? [Xavier] Nady? [Freddy] Guzman? … is big, especially in certain situations. I’m not sure I count on [manager Bruce] Bochy to creatively manage his lineup. I’d say Roberts can stay healthy if his PAs are in the 400s.

DS: Quick follow-up on Roberts: It looks like he may start the season on the DL due to a groin strain. This would put Nady in center. You’d said, “The difference between Roberts and … who? Nady? Guzman? … is big, especially in certain situations.” Now that we may see Nady on Opening Day, would you care to elaborate on this statement? Is there anything else you think Padres fans should know?

WC: I think the big differences are in how they play the game. Roberts was acquired as part of the “adjust to the ballpark” move and without him, how else did they adjust exactly?

DS: What is the long-term outlook for Tim Stauffer and his shoulder?

WC: He’s certainly played well this spring. His velocity appears to be returning to the levels the Padres drafted him for and I’m told it has nasty sink. He’s supposed to be a smart pitcher with a lot of people comparing him to some good pitchers. Most interesting comment I’ve heard is that he’s a “right handed crafty lefty.”

DS: In terms of injury risk, is there an appreciable difference between kids drafted out of high school, JC, and college?

WC: That’s one I’d really like to study more. Getting the data in the minors is next to impossible. What’s more important is that the injuries we see in the majors are almost always occurring in high school, college, maybe before. We need some sort of legislation by the controlling entities to get serious about reducing pitching arm injuries.

DS: Catherine Bach or Catherine Oxenberg?
WC: Oxenberg. Sucker for an accent.

I’d like to thank Will Carroll once more for taking the time to talk with Ducksnorts. Read more of Will’s work at Baseball Prospectus and The Juice Blog.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Rockies

by Geoff Young on Apr 04, 2005 (57) Comments

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams vs Joe Kennedy

With Dave Roberts on the DL, Khalil Greene leads off for the Padres in today’s opener. Greene hit .432/.488/1.027 in 37 at-bats at Coors in 2004 and was the Padres’ best leadoff hitter overall last season:

Padres Leadoff Hitters in 2004

Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Apr 02, 2005 (3) Comments

Needless to say, we didn’t make it to Elsinore. Anybody out there have a report? Anyway, here’s some stuff that’s come across my desk over the past few days:

  • Sabernomics Simple Projection System. What it says. He also has projections for pitchers.
  • Storm roster nearly final (NC Times). Jeff pointed us to this in the comments a few days ago. Big names are C George Kottaras and LHP Sean Thompson.
  • La Vida DePo (Dodger Thoughts). Jon interviews Dodger GM Paul DePodesta. A little long, but worth it. This is a wonderful read.
  • Klesko still frustrated by Petco Park’s dimensions (Yahoo!). In other news, fans still tired of hearing about it.
  • NL EWSL Standings (Baseball Crank). The Crank has the Padres at 88-74 and winning the NL West.
  • Baseball Musings has the Padres finishing second behind the Dodgers in their NL West Preview. Although David favors LA, he concedes that “the Dodgers and Padres are really a toss-up.”
  • Scout.com has rosters for Low-A Ft. Wayne and Double-A Mobile. SS Matt Bush is the big name at the former; RHP Travis Chick and 1B/OF Paul McAnulty are the ones to watch at the latter. We have any readers in or near either of those towns? I’d love to hear some reports during the season. Drop me a line.
  • There is no truth to the rumor that Congress is investigating whether these coins are larger than their in-circulation counterparts.
  • Nothing to do with baseball, BlogPulse is a cool blog search tool that I recently found. [via The RSS Weblog]

Predictions?

by Geoff Young on Mar 31, 2005 (9) Comments

So, anybody have predictions for this season? Here are a few of mine:

  • Padres finish 87-75, make playoffs as wild card
  • Adam Eaton has a breakout year: 15 wins, sub-3.80 ERA
  • Jake Peavy gets at least one Cy Young vote
  • Xavier Nady has a breakout year: .297/.355/.512
  • Tim Redding is the #5 we’ve all been waiting for (gotta like his Padre debut)
  • Ramon Hernandez deal doesn’t get done

Some individual projections of mine and various readers (feel free to add yours):

Sean Burroughs

me: .304/.362/.432
Evan: .297/.354/.382
Richard: .295/.355/.405

Khalil Greene
me: .274/.345/.490
Anthony: .285/.363/.492

Xavier Nady
me: .297/.355/.512

Self-Promotion Department

  • I wrote a little something called Meet the San Diego Padres for SportsFan Magazine. I need to work on my smarm.
  • Chin Waggers at Second Wind Navajo in San Carlos this Friday and Saturday night. We’re more fun than watching Ricky Stone pitch, and a lot cheaper. Guess I still need to work on my smarm.

Finally, I’ve got a cool little interview coming up for you next week. It’ll be our first at Ducksnorts, and I think you’ll like it.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs SDSU Aztecs

by Geoff Young on Mar 30, 2005 (13) Comments

Woody Williams toes the slab for the Padres, Will Miller goes for SDSU. ¡Digame, amigos!

Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Mar 30, 2005 (7) Comments

Padres vs Aztecs tonight at Petco, 7 p.m. Or if you’re lazy, cheap, and in town like me, catch it on Channel 4. Maybe we’ll get an in-game discussion going.

Can the Padres Afford Hernandez?

by Geoff Young on Mar 30, 2005 (3) Comments

Yesterday in the comments, longtime reader Brian G posed the following:

Many people have posited that by trading Humberto Quintero, the Padres are indicating that they’re committed to signing Ramon Hernandez to that long-term contract he’s going to want at the end of this season. (1) What do you think he’s going to want (years and dollars), (2) If he asks for what you think he’s going to ask for, will the Padres sign him and (3) Is that a deal you would make if you were GM?

Assume no “San Diego discount.”

Great question, Brian, and one I’m sure is on a lot of our minds. Let’s take a closer look.

Five starting catchers (defined fairly loosely) signed this off-season as free agents. Here they are (along with Hernandez), with their length of signing, dollar amount, age, and “traditional” offensive numbers over the past two years:

              Yr $M    Age  AB   R HR RBI   BA
Matheny,Mi     3 10.5   34 826  71 13  97 .249
Miller,Da      3  8.5   35 749  73 18  94 .254
Pierzynski,A.  1  2.25  28 958 108 22 151 .292
Varitek,Ja     4 40     32 914 130 43 158 .284
Wilson,Da      1  1.75  36 635  55  6  76 .246
Hernandez,Ra            29 867 115 39 141 .275

Here are some more “stathead” numbers for each over that same period:

                OBP  SLG OPS WS
Matheny,Mi     .308 .352 660 23
Miller,Da      .325 .387 713 25
Pierzynski,A.  .340 .437 777 35
Varitek,Ja     .371 .497 867 35
Wilson,Da      .289 .324 613 14
Hernandez,Ra   .336 .466 802 32

A.J. Pierzysnki’s personality sure is costing him. Anyway, how about defense? Here are some of the more interesting metrics for catchers:

                Inn   CERA SBA CS%
Matheny,Mi     2074.3 4.26 109 .26
Miller,Da      1893.3 4.06 150 .33
Pierzynski,A.  2187.7 4.22 132 .22
Varitek,Ja     2138.0 4.35 184 .22
Wilson,Da      1644.7 4.31 106 .27
Hernandez,Ra   2098.0 3.71 183 .25

Why is Mike Matheny making all that money? I’d assumed he was a superior defensive backstop. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re not as good as I’d expected.

So, acknowledging the small sample here, what can we say about Hernandez? Well, the bad news for the Padres is that Jason Varitek does seem to be a pretty good comp. Varitek has slightly better traditional and stathead offensive stats, and slightly inferior defensive numbers. He’s also three years older than Hernandez.

My WAG left in the comments (3 years/$15M) looks kinda silly now. Assuming the market doesn’t change drastically next winter and he stays relatively healthy, Hernandez should be in for a hefty raise. So my more educated guesses are:

  • In the $8-9M/yr range, at either 3 or 4 years. I’ll say 4 years/$34M.
  • With Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin still on the books, and a bunch of the kids about to start earning real money, I don’t see how.
  • I’d be reluctant to go for a fourth year with a catcher. Beyond that, it depends on the budget I’ve got. Maybe 3 years/$25M?

The Red Sox, who are fond of complaining about the Yankees’ spending, overpaid to keep Varitek around, and that may end up costing the Padres. Unless (a) Hernandez is willing to take less to remain in San Diego, (b) the market changes dramatically, or (c) John Moores expands the payroll dramatically, I have a hard time seeing how the Padres are going to make this work. I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect Hernandez will be too expensive for Moores’ taste.

Season Previews and More Trade Reaction

by Geoff Young on Mar 29, 2005 (4) Comments

Season Previews

  • Christian has posted the NL West Preview at All-Baseball. My contribution is weaker than I’d have liked, but I stand firmly behind what I said about Gary Bennett, Donaldo Mendez, and Eddie Oropesa.
  • Two guys named Neil living on the other side of the Atlantic make their picks. One of ‘em likes the Dodgers first, the Padres second; the other has the order reversed. They acknowledge that Jake Peavy is a legit Cy Young candidate and see Dave Roberts as lighting a spark. Good blog, gents, but that name is a bit unwieldy: “3,079 Miles to Fenway, 3,448 miles to Yankee Stadium.”
  • TBOM’s 2005 NL Predictions. He likes the Padres in the West.

Local Coverage of the Humberto Quintero/Tim Redding Deal

  • Padres get Redding to plug hole in rotation (NC Times). Quoth Kevin Towers: “Redding is somebody we’ve always liked… He has above-average stuff — above-average fastball, above-average life, above-average breaking ball. He struggled a little bit last year with his command. We think a change of scenery might be good for him.” Michel Hernandez, who has played well this spring, will start behind the dish at Portland and be ready if needed. There is also talk that George Kottaras could jump to Double-A Mobile. I hope they mean during the season and not right away.
  • Trade for Astros fastballer could fill big need at No. 5 (U-T). Covers a lot of the same ground as the NC Times article. They need to get over Ismael Valdez, though. Even when he was here and winning games, he wasn’t very good.
  • Redding dealt to Padres (Houston Chronicle). And from the other side, sounds like a change of scenery was definitely in order. From the article: “Only a year ago, the Astros could have received top prospects or a proven major leaguer for Redding. His value dropped each month, and the Astros couldn’t find any takers for him at the winter meetings.” Buy low, right?

Quintero for Redding

by Geoff Young on Mar 29, 2005 (12) Comments

As noted in the comments yesterday, the Padres have traded C Humberto Quintero to the Astros for RHP Tim Redding. I’ll preface this by saying I’m a big fan of Quintero. I love his hustle and enthusiasm. And I love that he was able to have such uncanny success against Randy Johnson last year. But here’s the thing about Quintero. He’s 26 years old and until last season, he never really hit much. Check out Q’s OPS at every minor league stop where he’s had 100+ plate appearances:

Age Lvl  AB OPS
 20  R  155 676
 21  A  248 589
 22  A  197 651
 22  A+ 154 547
 23  A+ 160 459
 23  AA 125 614
 24  AA 386 732
 25 AAA 259 819

For his minor-league career, he’s hitting .271/.316/.348 in just over 1800 at-bats. A little perspective is in order here, in the form of Gary Bennett and Mike Matheny:

            AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Quintero  1812 .271 .316 .348
Bennett   2245 .250 .319 .362
Matheny   1193 .246 .304 .354

Here is how their respective minor-league numbers look per 500 at-bats:

           AB  H  2B 3B HR BB  SO
Quintero  500 135 26  2  3 22  54
Bennett   500 125 24  1 10 46  78
Matheny   500 123 27  2  8 38 113

I guess it’s possible that Quintero could develop into a starting catcher based on his defensive skills, a la Matheny, but it seems more likely that he’ll be a career backup. Given that the Padres have two superior options at the big-league level in Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Ojeda, and that one of their best position prospects, George Kottaras, is a catcher, Quintero was pretty expendable.

As for Redding, I’ve seen him compared to Darrell May on the basis of a poor 2004, but there are a few obvious differences:

  • May is 33, Redding is 27
  • May is lefty, Redding is a righty
  • May throws in the mid-80s, Redding throws in the mid-90s

Redding had a very nice 2003 season at age 25 and looked poised to take the next step. It didn’t happen, and now he finds himself in San Diego with a new opportunity. Redding may or may not turn out be a useful part, but he’s an excellent gamble. The guy has stuff, he’s young, he has pedigree, and he’s had some success at the big-league level. Check out his minor-league numbers:

 IP    H/9 BB/9  SO/9
554.0 6.82 4.45 10.80

As recently as 2001, Redding was considered by many to be a top-notch prospect. A few excerpts:

From Baseball America’s 2001 Prospect Handbook:

Managers rated Redding’s fastball the best in the FSL. He repeatedly hits the mid-90s, and he’s capable of touching 98 mph with a four-seamer that rides or getting filthy sink with a two-seamer. His power curveball can be unhittable, and at times his changeup is above-average.

From John Sickels’ 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook:

Redding was a 20th-round draft pick in 1997, but he has a 95-MPH fastball, a hard slurve and sharp control. All of his ratios were strong: K/BB +51 percent, K/IP +44 percent, H/IP +19 percent… Grade B+

From Baseball Prospectus 2001:

Redding vaulted into prospect status after he was moved to the bullpen in mid-1999, though the Astros made the unconventional move of putting him back in the rotation in 2000. He was phenomenal, finishing third in the minors with 192 strikeouts. His control needs work, and he probably needs another year in the minors, which the Astros will happily give him. He should be on all the prospect lists in 2002.

Redding’s big-league comps are an interesting mix and probably represent his upside (Carl Pavano, Billy Swift), his downside (Jack Armstrong, Ken Dixon), and something in between (Bob Walk). Personally I look at him as a poor-man’s Adam Eaton: a kid with talent who hasn’t quite figured out what to do with it yet. Redding could flame out and be nothing. But he also could be an adjustment or two away from turning into a mid-rotation starter. [Update: I neglected to give my good friend Medea's Child credit for planting this seed in my head.] He’s a better gamble than Jaret Wright was in 2003. And at what cost: a catcher in the Bennett/Matheny mold? I like Quintero, but this is a deal you make every time. Even if Redding doesn’t pan out for the Padres, he at least has a chance to contribute in a meaningful way, which is more than Quintero likely would have gotten in San Diego.

Geez, am I looking at this trade way too closely or what?

Other reactions:

  • Baseball Babble thinks the deal helps both clubs but isnt too excited for either side.
  • Peter at Padres RunDown isn’t real thrilled from the Padres perspective. He views Redding more as a journeyman than a potential up-and-comer. Fair enough. It’s entirely possible that I’m seeing things in Redding that simply aren’t there. Wouldn’t be the first time.

Spring Training Notes

by Geoff Young on Mar 28, 2005 (3) Comments

Good shows this weekend. But really, when is turning your amp up to 11 and screaming at the top of your lungs not a good thing?

Speaking of the weekend, Padres took two out of three. That’s the good news. The bad news is nobody seems to want the #5 spot in the rotation. You know, the one that was handed to Darrell May last week? Here’s how the contestants are doing this spring:

          IP    H HR BB SO  ERA
May       14.1 21  1 10  7 9.42
Stauffer  10.1 14  1  4  8 4.35
Germano    9.0 14  1  1  3 8.00

More on May a little further down. Long story short: It’d be nice to see him pitch better but I ain’t losing sleep.

Box scores:

And here are some other items of interest:

  • Stauffer on fast track to Majors (Padres.com). Think this kid gets it? Quoth Stauffer: “I’m not a guy who’s going to go up there and try to blow people away… I’ve got a few pitches, and if I don’t have it all one day I still have enough to give my team a chance to win, eat up some innings and try to keep the pitch count down.”
  • Quickly developing Stauffer could be next for Padres’ rotation (NC Times). More about pitching’s answer to Khalil Greene. From the man himself: “I was successful because I was able to throw off-speed pitches for strikes and get ahead in the count. I tried to let batters put the ball in play rather than trying to strike guys out. If you do that, you can go deeper into games.” He may not be the Padres’ best prospect, but I’m pretty sure he’s my favorite.
  • May news at the NC Times and the U-T. Fastball clocked at 84 mph. Pitcher clocked to the tune of nine hits and eight runs in two-thirds of an inning. It’s a little disturbing to see the #5 starter rocked this hard so close to Opening Day. On the other hand, May does have a career ERA of 4.98 in over 500 big-league innings, so it’s hardly surprising. Nobody expects May to carry the ballclub. I think most of us are just hoping he isn’t any worse than Ismael Valdez was last year. Point is, this should change nothing. May remains a stopgap solution until a better one is ready to be implemented. He had a bad outing, and I’m sure he’ll have more. But Andy Ashby will be eligible to join the big club on May 1, and Stauffer and Justin Germano should be ready to contribute soon after that. May won’t last the year in the rotation. No need to get too worked up here.
  • The guys at Gaslamp Ball have a nice interview with NC Times reporter Brian Hiro. As they proudly (and correctly) proclaim, the interview doesn’t suck.
  • Speaking of interviews, Peter at Padres RunDown is soliciting questions for an interview with Baseball America’s Kevin Goldstein. Be sure to swing on by and offer up some ideas.
  • And yet another interview, this one with Bill James at Sons of Sam Horn [via Balls, Sticks & Stuff by way of Baseball Musings]. It’s a long but fascinating read. To say that James is a knowledgable baseball guy is an understatement of the highest order, but what really makes him for me is when he says things like this: “Public vulgarity is rampant; that’s not a good thing, because for one thing it takes all the fun out of private vulgarity.” He also has some interesting thoughts on diversity in ballpark dimensions and aging patterns of lefty pitchers.

I’m working on some interviews of my own. No timetable yet, but I hope to have something shake out before too long. Stay tuned.