First off, the Lahman Database abso-freakin-lutely rocks. Everybody knows this, but it still has to be said.
An article in yesterday’s U-T talks about Adam Eaton taking the next big step and realizing his immense talent this season. It mentions that Eaton is fully recovered from August 2001 elbow surgery and looking for better results. He is working with pitching coach Darren Balsley to “smooth out” his delivery to make things easier on his elbow and shoulder. He’s also trying to tighten his curveball. Although it is a thing of beauty, the theory goes that the big looping pitch Eaton employed last year isn’t well suited to the current environment.
I can’t speak to that. But thanks to Lahman, I can examine Eaton’s numbers and compare them with other pitchers of the past 25 years.
In looking at Eaton’s line from last year, the first thing I notice is – well, the high ERA. But the second thing is the terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio. And the third thing I notice is that he was just 26.
So this got me to thinking (uh-oh, danger Kerry Robinson): Since 1980, how many pitchers under age 28 have posted an ERA over 4.50 and a K/BB ratio over 2.70, and how did they fare in the following season(s)? To the chalkboard…
Player Yr Age IP ERA K/BB
Milton,Er 02 27 171 4.84 4.03
Milton,Er 00 25 200 4.86 3.64
Rusch,Gl 01 27 179 4.63 3.63
Woodard,St 99 24 185 4.52 3.31
Perez,Od 03 26 185.1 4.52 3.07
Castillo,Fr 96 27 182.1 5.28 3.02
Bosio,Ch 87 24 170 5.24 3.00
Eaton,Ad 04 27 199.1 4.61 2.94
Lohse,Ky 03 25 201 4.61 2.88
Heaton,Ne 87 27 193.1 4.52 2.84
Sirotka,Mi 98 27 211.2 5.06 2.72
Avery,St 95 25 173.1 4.67 2.71
Millwood,Ke 00 26 212.2 4.66 2.71
Hurst,Br 85 27 229.1 4.51 2.70
Is it me, or does this list scream “unfulfilled potential” to you? Almost all of these guys were pretty hot prospects at one time. Eric Milton has been teasing his various employers and their fans for years now. Glendon Rusch finally started to put it all together in 2004 for the Cubs. Steve Woodard came out like a cannon before slowly sputtering his way out of the big leagues. Mike Sirotka showed promise, but injuries ended his career by age 29. Steve Avery was already in steady decline by age 25 and well on his way to uselessness. Frank Castillo and Neal Heaton were high draft picks who had a few decent seasons but for the most part were journeymen. Chris Bosio was a good pitcher when healthy, but his style was very different from Eaton’s. Who knows about Kyle Lohse.
That leaves Odalis Perez, Kevin Millwood, and Bruce Hurst as our great hopes. Perez’ season looks like a fluke, as it was surrounded by two very good years with almost identical peripherals to those he posted in 2003. Hurst followed his performance with a true breakthrough, compiling a career-best 140 ERA+ over 25 starts in 1986.
Both of those guys, however, are lefties with arsenals very different from that of Eaton. Which brings us to Millwood.
In 1999, Millwood had what looked like a breakthrough season for the Braves, notching a 162 ERA+ over 228 innings. His peripherals were strong, and at age 24, Millwood appeared poised to slide into the elite ranks among pitchers. However, in the five seasons since, his ERA+ has been 100, 102, 127, 103, 90. Three average, one above average, one below. Millwood has maintained his strong strikeout-to-walk ratio during that time, thus giving folks hope that one day he will return to his 1999 form.
Eaton right now is like Millwood, but without the faux breakout year under his belt. Eaton’s statistical record shows promise (good and improving K/BB) as well as shortcomings (high HR rate). It is full of the same inconsistencies that litter his individual starts. Eaton can dominate for stretches, then fall apart in an instant. The stuff is there, but the results are not.
The Padre faithful hold out hope that one day, like Matt Clement before him, Eaton will be able to match stuff and results. (They also hope that, unlike Clement, he’ll do it while he’s still in San Diego.)
When I decided to isolate pitchers similar to Eaton in a few key respects, I did so with the intention of finding some young guns who just needed a little time to harness their ability. Instead, I got a list of solid, but not great, pitchers who never quite put it together. My real hope was to find ammunition for my belief that Eaton can still step up his game and move into elite pitching circles.
The ammo ain’t there, folks. Or if it is, I’m looking in the wrong places. I suppose at this point I’ll be reasonably happy if Eaton follows Millwood’s path. Happier than I would’ve been as a Braves fan watching Millwood follow that path after his 1999 season, anyway.
Other Stuff
On Wednesday we looked at Jake Peavy. Now PFS76 points us to John Sickels’ Young Pitcher Symposium on Peavy. The ensuing discussion about repertoire is interesting. A lot of folks rave about Peavy’s changeup. I’m partial to his fastball, but honestly I don’t think about any single pitch when I think about Peavy. I think more about his aggressiveness, intelligence, and ability to locate.
Finally, if you’re in the San Carlos area this Saturday night (i.e., tomorrow), swing by the Second Wind and check out my band Chin Waggers. We’ll be rockin’ the house from 9 PM till they make us go home. Stop on by and say hey. I’m the guy with the guitar…
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