Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

• Ryan Klesko‘s disappearing power? Guess someone forgot to tell Klesko: he smacked two homers in a 16-7 victory over the Rox.
• Chris Lindshield at SportsCentral identifies Mark Loretta as The Most Underrated Player in Baseball. Damn straight he is.
• Over at San Diego Spotlight, Rich Campbell is calling for the Pads to extend Ramon Hernandez‘ contract. He’s 29 years old and he’s the first really good catcher the Padres have had in a very long time. I’m with Rich on this one.
• Kevin Nicholson sighting: former Padre first-round pick signs with the Somerset Patriots of the Atlantic League. Not what anybody had in mind, I’m sure.

I should be working on the preview, but despite your best efforts, I’m still having trouble motivating myself to write about Darrell May. The best I can say is that “more left-handed than Ismael Valdez” is gaining momentum as a catchphrase.

Speaking of May, he struggled again in Wednesday’s loss to Oakland. Everyone is downplaying it, and we should remember how miserably Brian Lawrence did in the Cactus League last spring. But still…

Meanwhile, the folks over at Baseball Analysts have put together their preview of the NL West. The discussion is lively, even if some of the assertions (e.g., “Jason Schmidt is, by far, the best pitcher in the division”, “No, just think of him [Sean Burroughs] as Jerry Royster, without Royster’s strengths: speed and versatility”) are a little baffling. David Pinto disagrees with their conclusion, preferring both the Dodgers and Padres to the Giants.

And on the prospect front, the Pads take a beating again. John Sickels uses several different methods to demonstrate how San Diego’s farm system is among the worst in baseball. There’s no need to fear, Grady Fuson is here.

Finally, LynchMob points out that Will Carroll has posted his Padres Team Health Report [subscription] over at Baseball Prospectus. On a red/yellow/green scale (think stoplights), Ryan Klesko and Woody Williams are red, while Phil Nevin, Mark Loretta, Sean Burroughs, Dave Roberts, Brian Giles, Jake Peavy, Tim Stauffer, and Trevor Hoffman are yellow. Carroll says we shouldn’t expect Klesko’s power to return and that there’s a “dropoff ahead” for Williams. He also notes that due to less playing time earlier in his career, Loretta isn’t as battered as many middle infielders his age. Carroll is another who doesn’t believe Burroughs has any power, dismissing the notion that knee and shoulder problems played a part in last year’s outage. Like many of us, Carroll is rooting for Stauffer based on the young hurler’s integrity; obviously the shoulder remains a concern, although it appears not to be giving him any trouble now.

One thing that Carroll mentions which is interesting is that due to the Padres having so many injury-prone players in the heart of the lineup (Klesko, Nevin, and potentially Giles – about whom Carroll notes that players of his body type tend to start having knee and back problems at this stage in their careers), they need to keep guys around who can play multiple positions. Players such as Xavier Nady and Eric Young take on increased significance in this environment.

Interesting stuff. Any questions? I’ll see if I can follow up with Carroll and get clarification or expansion on some of this.

I’m about three-quarters of the way through with my Padres Preview for BTF. Here’s a sneak peak at a player near and dear to our hearts, Khalil Greene:

This time last year, the shortstop job was wide open in San Diego. Greene took control in spring and proved to be one of the stabilizing influences on the ballclub until a freak injury ended his season in early September. Last year in this space I said: “Greene frequently is compared to Rich Aurilia, and if Greene takes the job, he’ll hit about like Aurilia did in his first full season (.266/.319/.407).” Turns out we underestimated Greene’s hitting ability, as he finished up at .273/.349/.446 (including a whopping .294/.337/.647 in 85 at-bats as leadoff hitter). Particularly encouraging was his second half showing. Greene hit .293/.351/.540 after the All-Star break and likely would have won Rookie of the Year honors had he not broken his right index finger on a bad hop grounder with two weeks to play. Here’s a quick comparison between Greene’s first full season and those of a couple other heralded young shortstops:

        Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ WS
Greene   24 554 .273 .349 .446 112  20
Jeter    22 654 .314 .370 .430 101  18
Tejada   23 674 .251 .325 .427  91  20

Defensively Greene doesn’t have spectacular range but he has good instincts and a quick release on his throws. He also turns the double play well and doesn’t panic. Greene was one of the keys to the Padres’ big turnaround in 2004. If he stays healthy, he should build on his rookie season and be a very productive hitter at the bottom of the order, with 20+ homers a real possibility.

In Other News

• Over at Fanstop, Lost Gonzo points to a Peter Gammons article that identifies Tim Stauffer and Paul McAnulty as two rookies to watch this season.
• Alex Sanchez has been released by the Tigers. He’s basically a younger version of Dave Roberts. Makes you wonder why Detroit wasn’t able to get something for him, no?
• Speaking of Roberts, it looks like Ben Johnson might be the one to get the call if the Padres need a short-term replacement in center.
• According to this article at the NC Times, getting Xavier Nady 350+ at-bats continues to be a priority. Quoth Bruce Bochy: “We need to run him out there as much as possible.”
• Minor-league pitchers hope they can stick (NC Times). The Padres are leaning toward a 12-man pitching staff, with Blaine Neal, Steve Sparks, and Randy Williams leading the charge for the last spot. Others, including Joe Dawley, Brian Falkenborg, and Danny Patterson, are considered longshots.
• Baseball America rankings casts doubt on prospects for Padres (U-T). Of course, the brightest prospects have graduated to the big club or moved to Pittsburgh. I also agree that many evaluators are way too down on Tim Stauffer and Matt Bush. With Stauffer, his performance and demeanor suggest greater things; with Bush, we don’t know much beyond the fact that he’s young and a good athlete.
• Great Literature Made Better By Adding Kevin Millar (Surviving Grady). Nothing to do with the Padres, but this is freakin’ hilarious.

Pads beat the Mariners yesterday, 4-3. One hit each from 11 different players. Paul McAnulty doubled in his only trip to the plate. Xavier Nady, getting the start at third, singled and stole a base in four at-bats. Although he was reported to be out six weeks with a bum elbow, Freddy Guzman did appear as a pinch runner. He ran for Ramon Hernandez and was caught stealing.

On the pitching side, Brian Lawrence surrendered all three runs in just four innings of work before giving way to a bullpen that shut down the M’s the rest of the way. Akinori Otsuka, working the seventh, allowed one hit and struck out three. (Speaking of Aki, is it great to see those Corky’s Pest Control commercials again or what?)

In Other News

• Studes at Hardball Times looks at the luckiest and unluckiest players from 2004 and cites the unlucky ones as potential bounceback candidates. He likes Dennys Reyes to improve, Jake Peavy not so much. [via Daily Lancer]
• Padres trim roster to 46 (Scout.com). No surprises here, except possibly that Sean Thompson, who spent all last year in the Midwest League, has been optioned to Double-A Mobile.
• David Pinto is up to more crazy good stuff over at Baseball Musings. Go on and give his new toy a spin. Pretty cool, huh?

That’s all for now; more as it happens.

Remember the Potentially Cool Thing (TM) that I mentioned might be happening to Ducksnorts? Well, you can take the "might" out of that sentence. I still can’t tell you what it is, so I’ll just tease a little more. But it really is cool, and it will be happening very soon.

Meantime, here are some odds and ends I thought you might find interesting.

• BP 1999 Top 40 Prospect List Review (SOSH). As you are no doubt aware, I love these kinds of studies. [via Baseball Think Factory]
• The Transaction Guy likes the Padres’ signing of Peavy. And why not?
• Charting Range (Baseball Musings). David Pinto is taking his play-by-play defensive data and displaying it graphically. It’s in the development stages, but this is very cool stuff.
• Speaking of graphical displays, Major League Charts is a fun tool. It seems more interesting than useful at this point, but I’m glad to see folks thinking in different ways. This is how breakthroughs are made.
• Some thoughts on the steroid situation from Only Baseball Matters, Baseball Musings, and Futility Infielder. Seems many of us are wondering why this concerns Congress.
• And here are the rantings of some possibly well-intentioned but perhaps overly self-righteous lawmakers. If there’s anything that this mess needs right now, it’s rush to judgment. Yes, I’m certain that will make it all disappear.
• White Sox 6, Padres 3 (ESPN). Most of the damage came against Darrell May and Justin Germano over the first four innings. Brad Baker, Chris Hammond, and Blaine Neal each spun a scoreless frame. Xavier Nady, getting the start at third, had two hits including a homer. The bomb was an opposite field shot off Freddy Garcia.

That’s all for now. More as it happens…

My wife just found out that Dave Roberts is half Okinawan. I can’t say mean things about him anymore.

• Rockies 11, Padres 5 (ESPN). Two hits for Phil Nevin, homer for Michael Johnson. Scoreless innings from prospects Travis Chick and Rusty Tucker, and from NRIs Joe Dawley and Brian Falkenborg. Woody Williams surrendered 9 runs in 2 1/3 innings. Said Williams: “Obviously you want to get outs, but it wasn’t my day. … I’m not fazed a bit. Seven or eight years ago, it would’ve [bothered me], but you learn to deal with things as they come.”
• Bochy plans on May being his fifth starter (U-T). Steve Sparks and Tim Stauffer continue to impress. The former may end up in the bullpen, the latter looks to be back at Portland. Check out the sidebar: Mark Sweeney in center?

That’s all I’ve got for now…

• Anabreafullercaliangeles Angels 2, Padres 1 (ESPN). Starting at shortstop, Geoff Blum knocks two hits, including a homer. Xavier Nady singles in three at-bats, starting at third base and batting fifth. Solid pitching performances from Steve Sparks and Tim Stauffer.
• White Sox 7, Padres 3 (ESPN). Two hits for Phil Nevin. Another hit and RBI for Jon Knott. Kervin Jacobo? Didn’t he go somewhere in the minor-league phase of the Rule V draft? (Looks like the Pads re-signed him.) Three strong innings from Brian Lawrence.
• Congress Subpoenas Padres GM To Talk About Steroids (NBCSanDiego). No offense, but why do politicians so frequently sound like idiots when they open their mouths?
• Ben Davis Follow Up (PFS76). Seems the former #1 draft pick left a bad taste in a few mouths. Feel free to interpret that last sentence however you see fit.
• Padres Notebook: Peavy’s pact includes possible escalator ride (NC Times). LynchMob pointed us to this in yesterday’s comments. The gist of it is that Peavy gets a guaranteed $14.5M over the next four years and could earn as much as $25M depending on incentives. If I’m reading correctly, that latter scenario would have Peavy winning a Cy Young Award and the Pads picking up his option in 2009. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that if Peavy wins a Cy Young between now and then, he’ll have been well worth the money.

Actually, “Brewers Get Hammered” would have worked just as well. Anyway, the Friars busted out the whoopin’ sticks en route to an 18-5 victory over Milwaukee. Robert Fick, Ryan Klesko, and Jon Knott all homered for the Pads. Knott’s was a grand slam. Mark Loretta collected three hits, with Sean Burroughs, Paul McAnulty, and Phil Nevin adding two apiece. Jake Peavy allowed a run over three innings. Blaine Neal surrendered three runs on four hits (two homers) in his only inning of work. Line of the game:

               AB R H BI
J Barfield 2b   0 3 0 0

Among the kids, Knott and McAnulty are off to fast starts. McAnulty, the Pads #10 prospect according to Baseball America, is profiled in yesterday’s U-T.

In Other News

Didn’t think I could make it through an entire post without bullet points, did ya?

• Thompson Tuesdays (Scout.com) is back. Padres prospect Sean Thompson talks about his first big-league spring training appearance. I absolutely love that he is doing this.
• Padres happy former Arizona pitcher now on their side (NC Times). According to this article, Steve Sparks is “locked in a tight race with Blaine Neal and Randy Williams for the last of seven bullpen spots.” Interesting. That’s the first time I’ve heard his name mentioned as a possible reliever with the big club. Also: “A slight mechanical flaw spotted this spring by Padres pitching coaches has him tossing what he calls his crispest knuckleballs of the past few years.”

And that, my friends, is all for now.

• Padres 4, Angels 0 (ESPN). Adam Eaton, Scott Linebrink, Rusty Tucker, Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, and Sean Burroughs looking good. Is it great to see Tucker back or what? I have a sneaking suspicion we’ll see him in San Diego at some point this year.
• Notes: Eaton pleased with his progress (Padres.com). An update on Eaton’s new delivery, which keeps him from pitching across his body.
• Mailbag: What is Burroughs’ role? (Padres.com). Quoth John Schlegel: “…the bottom line is this is a very talented player and the club no doubt would like nothing better than for him to have a solid all-around season at the plate, with a little more pop and a little more consistent success at getting on base.” Notes also on Tim Stauffer, Brian Giles, and Andy Ashby.
• Young brings versatility, experience (Padres.com). Love the attitude: “I’m at the point where if you’re an athlete, you can basically play anywhere, whether it’s for a short period of time or a day at a time or whatever.”
• Padres’ Johnson opening some eyes (U-T). Thanks to several folks for pointing us to this article. Outfielder Ben Johnson is the prospect who came over from the Cardinals in the Carlos Hernandez deal a few years ago. What we said about Johnson in July 2001:
  

  Ben Johnson made a terrific throw from right field to keep a runner from scoring. This is not the first time I’ve been impressed by his arm. He’s also got a very quick bat but he needs to work the count better to take advantage of it. He swings a lot early in the count and then ends up either striking out or hitting a pitcher’s pitch. Johnson’s numbers are nice in and of themselves; taking into consideration his youth and relatively crude approach, they’re even more impressive. If he learns how to wait for his pitch, he could be a scary, scary hitter.

  What a strange day that was. It marked Oliver Perez’ Cal League debut and the game was cancelled due to a bomb threat. I’d forgotten about that.

On a completely unrelated note, Bertrand Smith’s Acres of Books is a fantastic store. If you’re ever in or near Long Beach, I highly recommend it. The place is huge and very well organized. I found an intriguing book called “Songs in the Key of Z” (which has its own web site) that details “outsider music,” including the likes of Syd Barrett, Captain Beefheart, Daniel Johnston, Wesley Willis (link is to a killer tribute album with free MP3s; “Cut the Mullet” is brilliant – just a heads-up, there is some swearing in here), Jandek, and more. Fascinating stuff.

Making progress on the BTF Padres Preview. I’m through the starting lineup and into the bench. Then it’s onto the pitchers, farm system, and front office. One thing I’ve noticed is that the first five hitters in the lineup are all age 33 or 34 and hail from SoCal. We should come up with a name for these guys: Freeway Five?

Or maybe not.

So here are some box scores (ESPN):

• Mar 3: Sea 5, SD 4 Jon Knott, Adam Eaton, Damian Jackson, Josh Barfield, and Paul McAnulty.
• Mar 4: Ana 6, SD 4 Jake Peavy, Michel Hernandez, Ben Johnson, Jackson, and McAnulty.
• Mar 5: SD 5, Sea 2 Joey Dawley, Brian Lawrence, Steve Sparks, Ramon Hernandez, Robert Fick (at catcher).
• Mar 5: SF 5, SD 4 Darrell May, Tim Stauffer, Chris Oxspring, Rusty Tucker, M. Hernandez, Jackson, Mark Sweeney.
• Mar 6: SD 9, Sea 6 Blaine Neal, Woody Williams, Xavier Nady (in center), Brian Giles, McAnulty, B. Johnson, Humberto Quintero, M. Hernandez.

And some other goodies.

• Closer (Hardball Times). Studes looks at the P rankings of big-league closers in 2004. “P is the measure of how important a situation is, based on its potential impact on Win Probability.” According to the article, “Trevor Hoffman had the highest P among all closers last year, primarily because almost half of his appearances occurred during a one- or two-run lead.”
• Stauffer thrives on skepticism (U-T). Stauffer draws comparisons to Khalil Greene for being underestimated by talent evaluators and for his competitiveness and poise.
• Padres Notebook: Klesko makes spring debut (NC Times). Reports on his balky left shoulder are good. Let’s hope that remains the case.
• Hernandez excels as mentor to pitchers (NC Times). Nice piece on the Man Who Wiped Our Memories of Wiki Bennett.
• How The Sausage Is Made: Inside The Ranking Process (BA). John Manuel talks about how Baseball America assembles its top 100 prospect list.
• Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects (Minor League Ball). John Sickels has former Padre David Pauley at #18.

That’s all for now. Back to the Padres bench…