Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Started yesterday morning with a delicious loco moco breakfast at the hotel. Watched the koi in the pond get fed.

Walked over to Ala Moana and had malasadas (portuguese donuts) filled with haupia (coconut custard). Then ate a plate lunch with kalua pig, lau lau (pork wrapped in spinach), chicken long rice, and lomi salmon. Wandered around the mall–found a great ukelele shop and briefly fantasized about plugging one of the electric models into my Marshall amp and cranking out “Purple Haze” or some other similarly inappropriate tune. Strolled along the beach, then caught House of the Flying Daggers at the local theater. And of course, we always finish up with a dinner buffet with various brothers-in-law. In Hawai’i, it’s all about food and family.

I could get used to this.

Today’s photo is of a little peninsula near Ala Moana beach park. I don’t know what it’s called, but it looked nice.

What doesn’t look so nice is the Padres giving a bunch of potentially useful resources to the Red Sox for painfully little (painful because I was wrong about the petroleum jelly; the Sox supplied none).

My wife thinks that the “petroleum jelly” remark could offend some folks. I tell her that I agree but that it isn’t as offensive as this trade. Let’s take a closer look at just how bad it was.

The first question I ask myself is, What were the Padres trying to accomplish here? What was the motivation for this deal? They moved two useful big-league position players, a legit pitching prospect, and cash for a 33-year-old outfielder with a career 679 OPS. Why?

I’ve been wracking my brains and there are only two possibilities I can conceive:

• Kevin Towers had grown tired of referring to Woody Williams for Ray Lankford as his worst trade ever.
• Theo Epstein is a Jedi Master who convinced Towers those weren’t the players he was looking for.

Unfortunately neither of these hypotheses helps us (although neither hurts as much as the trade itself). So we ask other questions. Such as, Was Roberts worth any of the resources San Diego coughed up? (Never mind whether he was worth all of them.)

Dave Roberts vs Jay Payton

         Age   AB  BA OBP SLG OPS+
Payton    32 2382 285 335 443 100
Roberts   33 1294 259 335 344  82

Payton is a year younger and has a career OPS nearly 100 points higher than Roberts. Neither one is particularly adept at getting on base, but Payton has a lot more pop. Roberts hit .175/.238/.246 against southpaws last year. Not sure how he’s done historically in that regard but the guess here is that he’ll be platooned on the basis of his 2004 performance. Defensively, it’s tough to compare the two because Roberts primarily played left field last year. His range factor in left was about middle of the pack. Same in center, although it was much higher in Los Angeles than in Boston.

Bottom line: Significant offensive downgrade. Negligible defensive change. I wouldn’t trade Payton straight up for Roberts.

Dave Roberts vs Ramon Vazquez

         Age   AB  BA OBP SLG OPS+
Roberts   33 1294 259 335 344  82
Vazquez   28  995 262 334 344  85

Vazquez is 5 years younger, hits about the same, and has greater defensive utility. Even with arbitration impending, Vazquez should be less expensive than Roberts. Both of these guys would make excellent bench players. Neither is great in a starting role, although at his age, Vazquez seems more likely to improve.

Bottom line: Pretty much a wash. The one other thing this does is forces the Padres to use Geoff Blum in the role Vazquez would have occupied. Indirectly, this constitutes a minor downgrade. I could see trading Vazquez for Roberts straight up if I had a better option than Blum to replace the former.

Dave Roberts vs David Pauley

This one’s a little tougher to judge because Pauley hasn’t yet pitched in the big leagues. Hasn’t come close, even. But entering 2004 he was the Padres #8 prospect according to Baseball America. Pauley ranked higher than, among others, Justin Germano and Chris Oxspring. Does Pauley have huge upside? No. But he could be a solid mid-rotation option in a year or two. Think Brian Lawrence.

Bottom line: Pauley isn’t a great prospect, but the Padres system isn’t all that strong right now, and he’s got enough potential to make this look real bad soon. I would want more than a bit player for a guy like Pauley. I wouldn’t trade Pauley straight up for Roberts.

Dave Roberts vs $2.65M

Roberts is eligible for arbitration. I don’t know how much he’ll end up getting, but he made $975k last year so I’m guessing it’ll be in the $1.2 – 1.5M range. Assuming it’s $1.5M, this would essentially be giving up $4.15M in exchange for Roberts’ services. Richard Hidalgo signed for $5M this year. Is Roberts worth about 80% of Hidalgo?

Bottom line: I’d rather have the money.

In short, I could almost see trading Vazquez for Roberts. Actually, I don’t have a huge problem with that. But Payton, Pauley, and $2.65M is pure profit for the Red Sox. When this rumor first reared its ugly head, I said Red Sox fans should be happy if it happened. Now that it’s happened and Boston has picked up a solid prospect and cash (BTW, does it strike anyone else as odd that the Red Sox need the Pads’ money?) in addition, they should be downright delirious. Their GM moved a spare part for a starting position player, a solid utility player, a solid prospect, and a chunk of change. Folks, it really doesn’t get much better than that.

Unless, of course, you’re a fan of the Padres.

What Others Are Saying

• sdwebguy has some nice things to say about Roberts, but likes the deal for the BoSox.
• Dan at BTF thinks Boston did just fine on this one.
• U-T gives the facts and this irritating quote: “This is not a deal we did to save money,” said Towers. “By the time we sign Dave, the money will be close to equal.”
• Another BTF thread mostly comes down in favor of the Red Sox.
• Transaction Guy weighs in and–oh go read it yourself, this is depressing me.
• Scout.com offers a little info on Pauley as well as the role former Padre minor leaguer Henri Stanley played in all this. (Hint, the Red Sox sent Stanley to LA straight up in a deal for Roberts last summer. This was just months after the Padres had traded Stanley to Boston for a PTBNL and cash. That’s right, Boston used a Padre castoff to acquire three more Padres and some money. Angry yet?)
• Rich at San Diego Spotlight seems pretty neutral on the trade.

I’m sure all the Red Sox blogs have something to say as well. You can go find those on your own if you’re so inclined. I don’t even want to look at those right now, let alone link to them.

Meantime, I stand by my original assessment of the trade: Ugh.

I’m on dial-up this week, so only after I’d composed today’s entry did I learn of the Padres-Red Sox trade. If you missed it, the Pads sent Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez, David Pauley, and $2.65M to Boston for Dave Roberts and undisclosed amounts of petroleum jelly. Analysis will follow in the coming days, as soon as I can come up with something more insightful than “ugh.”

Put me behind the wheel of an automobile for 12-14 hours, no problem. Stick me on a plane for less than half that time and I’m a complete basket case. And we haven’t even gotten to the Drunk Chick (TM) across the aisle from me. I’m not saying that her headphones were too loud, but there ought to be a law against inflicting “Sussudio” on humans three times in one day.

Fortunately an excellent Indonesian buffet on Kapi’olani and time with family have put me in a better frame of mind.

I’ll be posting a picture each day while I’m in Hawai’i. Today’s is the view from our hotel in downtown Honolulu. We’re about three blocks from everything here, which is good because we didn’t rent a car. Skip past the photo to get to our scouting report.

And now we turn to page 309 of The Scouting Report: 1990 to learn more about ESPN analyst and former Mariner second baseman Harold Reynolds:

His best weapon is his speed on ground balls, giving him the ability to leg out a lot of infield hits. His slashing, chopping swing is not picture perfect, but it’s effective as he makes solid contact… Some feel that Reynolds should be more selective and improve his on-base percentage via the walk… Reynolds bunts well and likes to drag the ball, but could probably do so even more than he does now… Harold is a team player and does all the little things that are important… Reynolds has the speed to be among the top base stealers in the AL… He’s not reading the pitchers well and has been caught stealing 47 times in the last two season… No one plays second base better than Reynolds… His range is exceptional and his instincts outstanding… Reynolds is also fearless at turning the double play.

Reynolds led the AL in percentage of swings put into play (59.9%) in 1989. He had the second worst stolen base percentage (58.1%).

After hitting .300/.359/.369 in 1989, Reynolds finished at .252/.336/.347 the following season. The good news was he drew a career-high 81 walks in 1990. The bad news was his batting average dropped by 48 points, dragging his on base percentage with it.

Reynolds led the AL in stolen bases in 1987 (60), in triples in 1989 (11), and in at-bats in 1990 (642). For his career, he hit .258/.327/.341 in over 1300 games. Reynolds had more walks (480) than strikeouts (417) as a big leaguer.

As for his defense, I’m not the biggest believer in range factors, but in this case they bear out the visual evidence. Here is how he compared against the league in each of his seasons as a full-time starter:

Yr    RF  LgRF
86  5.50  4.34
87  5.34  4.48
88  4.90  4.40
89  5.41  4.51
90  5.18  4.53
91  5.10  4.44
92  4.96  4.60
93  4.98  4.54
tot 4.99  4.48

Reynolds’ best comp is Mickey Morandini. The rest of his top 10 comps all spent the bulk of their career in the 1970s or earlier.

Hope you enjoyed that little look back at the career of Harold Reynolds. We’ll focus on Padre broadcaster Mark Grant in our next installment, tentatively scheduled for this Friday.

Congratulations to the San Diego Chargers for clinching the AFC West yesterday. I did not think they’d win more than five games this year, but there they are at 11-3, headed to the playoffs for the first time since 1995. Kudos to Marty Schottenheimer, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Antonio Gates, and all the other unlikely heroes that have made it all possible.

Turning to the baseball world, I have some questions about free agency. Since I started informally tracking free agent signings for my own amusement this winter, I’ve come to wonder what, if any, relationship there has been historically between the size of a player’s contract and:

1. his past performance
2. his future performance
3. the signing team’s winning percentage
4. the signing team’s attendance

Does the most money go to the best players? If so, do those players continue to be the best? Do teams that spend the most money see the most improvement on the field or at the ticket gate?

For example, I have trouble imagining how throwing $7.5M at two guys in their mid- to late-30s who combined to hit .273/.329/.372 in over 1000 plate appearances will help the Giants win more than 91 games next year. Sure, it’s possible that the Giants will improve in 2005. And I suppose it’s possible that their improvement could be attributable to the additions of Mike Matheny and Omar Vizquel. But it doesn’t seem very likely.

I guess what it really comes down to is this: Are teams spending their money wisely? If the answer is yes, then we should see some results. If the answer is no, then the owners really need to stop whining about financial losses and learn how to make better use of their resources.

No revelation in any of this. I’d just like to see some of these questions answered.

On a totally unrelated note, I picked up the Bill James Handbook 2005 the other day. I’m probably reading it on the plane as you’re reading about me reading it on the plane.

Anyway, there are some pretty cool nuggets in here. You can learn stuff like:

• Petco Park was the hardest place in the big leagues for lefties to hit homers last year (it was also, with the exception of Hiram Bithorn Stadium in Puerto Rico, the hardest place for righties to leave the yard).
• Petco Park was the easiest place in the big leagues to field ground balls (just 26 errors in games involving the Padres at home, as opposed to 51 on the road).
• Although Petco squashed a lot of home runs, it didn’t depress overall scoring much more than Qualcomm did in 2002-2003 (runs scored index of 85 over those two years versus 82 last season).
• With Woody Williams replacing David Wells in the rotation, the Padres actually look to be stronger against lefties. Southpaws hit .278/.299/.536 against Wells in 2004, and just .223/.298/.368 against Williams.
• Mark Loretta led the league in away batting average last year (.368).
• Loretta finished third in batting average against LHP (.352). Two other Padres made the top 10: Phil Nevin checked in at #9 (.324) and Ryan Klesko one slot ahead of him (.325). Klesko was the only left-handed hitter in the bunch.
• Speaking of Klesko, he was 10th in the NL with a 946 OPS in the second half.
• Among NL pitchers, only David Wells and Ben Sheets threw a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone last year than Adam Eaton.
• Trevor Hoffman led NL relievers with a .087 opponent batting average with RISP. Only Armando Benitez (.220) had a better opponent OBP than Hoffman’s .242.
• Brian Lawrence had the slowest average fastball in the NL (83.2 MPH). Only Tim Wakefield (75.9) and Jamie Moyer (81.6) were slower in all of baseball. Lawrence also threw a greater percentage of sliders than all NL pitchers other than Randy Johnson and Matt Clement.

You’ll also find goodies like 2005 player projections, career projections, injury projections (fascinating stuff), and of course win shares. (Quick: What do Eric Byrnes, Eric Chavez, Jeff Conine, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko, Javy Lopez, and Corey Patterson have in common? All finished with 19 win shares last year. Proves nothing, but still kinda fun.)

That’s all for now. Gotta pack…

In the comments to yesterday’s entry, Derek asked about a couple of current rumors involving the Padres.

The first (Rocky Mountain News) has Preston Wilson coming to San Diego for Jay Payton and Xavier Nady.

Money? Wilson is due $12M in 2005. Payton will get $3.5M next year. Nady, obviously, is young and comparatively cheap.

Wilson and Payton both had down years in 2004, so let’s look at how they did the previous year, when they played side by side in Colorado:

     PA  BA OBP SLG BB  SO OPS+
JP  658 302 354 512 43  77 112
PW  661 282 343 537 54 139 115

Pretty similar. How about 2002:

     PA  BA OBP SLG BB  SO OPS+
JP  481 303 351 488 29  54 115
PW  582 243 329 429 58 140 101

This isn’t really helping Wilson’s cause. Payton is about 1 1/2 years older than Wilson, and he will cost $8.5M less. And the Rockies want Nady, too?

Sorry but I don’t see how this helps the Padres at all. As I said yesterday, take Nady out of the deal and send $8M the Padres way, maybe you have something. The decision makers need to remember that Payton’s bad year doesn’t necessarily make him a bad player. Don’t panic.

The second rumor (USA Today) has Payton and Brian Lawrence headed to Texas for Alfonso Soriano.

From a talent standpoint, this one makes a little more sense. And if it weren’t for the fact that the Padres already have one of the best second basemen in baseball and not a lot of depth in the rotation, I’d probably be excited.

Okay, Soriano can hit the ball a long way. But much of his value derives from the fact that he plays second base. With Mark Loretta stationed there for the Pads and Josh Barfield on the way, it’s hard to imagine Soriano playing second in San Diego.

Third base? He’s played 10 games there in the big leagues and committed 4 errors. And what do you do with Sean Burroughs then?

Center field? Soriano’s next game in the outfield will be his first. Not that he couldn’t do it, but if the goal is to get a center fielder, then why not get one?

As for the money, Soriano is arbitration eligible and is expected to command in excess of $7.5M. Lawrence will earn $2.25M this year and $3.5M in 2006. We’ve already touched on Payton.

So the finances appear to work out okay. But who replaces Lawrence in the rotation: Dennys Reyes? As it stands, Woody Williams and Darrell May are replacing David Wells and, essentially, Ismael Valdez. Probably a slight dropoff there overall, but at least you’ve got a couple of guys who have made it through a big league season taking a regular rotation turn. Asking Reyes to replace Lawrence is a bit much (and I happen to like Reyes).

The only reason I can think for the Padres to make this deal would be to flip Soriano to another team for a starting pitcher to replace Lawrence. Don’t ask me for names, this is pure speculation. Just thinking along here.

When all is said and done, I’m in agreement with Rich over at San Diego Spotlight on this one. A deal for Soriano could go down, but it seems like a lot of other teams need him more than the Padres do.

I’d forgotten how irritated I was when the Padres signed David Wells last January. To quote myself:

This is the savior? This is the man to lead the Padres’ young rotation? This is a 41-year-old guy with a good appetite and a bad back. I don’t get it. This was the off-season things were supposed to happen. There were a few nice moves made. The deal with the A’s wasn’t great but it filled a gaping hole. Kevin Towers built a potentially very solid bullpen on the cheap. But right now it looks like the Pads are planning to go into the season without a true center fielder and without a true #1 starter. One or the other I could stomach. But I thought one of the points of assembling such an inexpensive bullpen was that it would help free up money for a Mike Cameron or a Greg Maddux. No offense, but Eugene Kingsale and David Wells isn’t an acceptable substitute.

The rant actually goes on for 13 paragraphs and then picks up again a few days later. In retrospect, I’m glad the Padres didn’t sign Maddux for the money he ended up getting (3 years, $24M). And Wells contributed more to the ballclub than I’d thought he would. In particular, I may have underestimated the impact he would have on the younger pitchers:

When Wells hangs ‘em up after the season (assuming his back and other body parts hold up that long), who is going to step in to replace him? Sign Maddux to a 2- or 3-year pact, and you don’t need to ask that question. The only thing I can figure is that Towers doesn’t think this is the year for the Padres and he’s punting again, saving his money for the #1 pick in the June draft and/or members of the 2004-05 free agent class.

Well, I guess the answer to my question is your NL ERA champ, Jake Peavy. And again, I’m very glad the Pads didn’t sign Maddux to a long-term deal. As for saving money for this year’s free agents, two things:

1. There have been some truly awful signings so far.
2. The winter is young and there is still plenty of time to make deals.

Speaking of nabbing guys late in the game, that last quoted paragraph finishes with a plea to sign Jay Payton:

But how much longer is this cycle going to persist? We were told that this winter would be different, that the Padres would make some moves. And we watched as player after player signed elsewhere, and the pool of available talent slowly dried up. Jay Payton is still available and by most accounts can play a passable center field. Not that he’s great, but even just as a gesture?

I still think the Payton signing was a smart one, even if it didn’t work out last year. He’s a good enough player to bounce back if given the chance.

Back to Wells, an article in today’s U-T gives a little insight into how negotations between he, his wife, and the Padres unraveled at the 11th hour. I’m grateful to Wells for what he brought to the Pads last year. But I’m also grateful to Kevin Towers for not offering him a second year guaranteed. No matter how disappointed some people may be (myself included) that Wells isn’t coming back, for Towers to have tried to compete with the Red Sox financially would have been stupid.

For those who feel somehow betrayed by Wells, remember that this is who he is. Two years ago Wells backed out of a deal with the Diamondbacks to rejoin the Yankees. And recall the circumstances that surrounded his coming to San Diego.

This is nothing new for Wells. It’s his nature; no harm, no foul. I’m sure the Padres and many fans probably feel jilted, but you know what? Get over it. And no blaming of Towers for the fact that Wells is a flake.

We move on. And with or without Boomer, we kick ass in 2005.

The good news is, the Padres didn’t participate in the Major League phase of the Rule V draft. They did grab LHP Arturo Lopez from the Dodgers and SS Christian Herrera from the Pirates in the Triple-A phase. They also lost 3B Kervin Jacobo (to Mariners), OF Josh Carter (to Phillies), and OF Marcus Nettles (to Nationals). Whole lotta movement, without much consequence.

We turn now to page 265 of The Scouting Report: 1990, home to two 22-year-old prospects, Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens and, of course, Deion Sanders. Yes, that Deion Sanders:

With tons of talent and an ounce of experience, “Neon Deion” flashed on and off the New York scene twice in 1989… But he is not really ready to play major league baseball. Deion showed discipline at bat, usually looking at the first pitch. For someone who looks like he is swinging an axe, Sanders is very effective putting the bat on the ball… On the basepaths, Deion takes a large lead and runs with great speed… It would be great fun to watch Sanders develop as a baseball player. But anyone who saw him leave his team in the middle of a game, to sign with the Atlanta Falcons, must believe that his interests lie elsewhere.

At this stage in his baseball career, Sanders had a total of 50 big-league plate appearances, during which he hit .234/.280/.404. In a career that spanned parts of nine seasons, Sanders hit .263/.319/.392. He finished second in the NL in stolen bases in 1994 and 1997 despite playing just 92 and 115 games, respectively. He also led the league in triples in 1992 with 14 in 325 plate appearances. Sanders finished with 558 hits, including 43 triples and 39 homers. He also stole 186 bases at a 74% success rate.

As a football player, Sanders has been named to the Pro Bowl eight times. As a baseball player, his best comps are guys like Mike Kingery, Henry Cotto, Junior Felix, and Jacob Brumfield. Obviously it takes a special talent to be able to play two different sports at such a high level, but one wonders what Sanders was even doing playing baseball. He was a decent enough player, but it’s hard to imagine a guy who is world class in one sport finding contentment in being merely “decent” in another.

We’ll go over the report of former Mariner second baseman and current ESPN analyst Harold Reynolds in Friday’s edition. After that, Jeff Brantley, Rob Dibble, Mark Grant, Steve Lyons, and Rick Sutcliffe remain among announcers. If none of those appeal, we’ll move over to managers and GMs.

How ’bout those Chargers? 10-3 and marching toward a playoff berth. Led by a quarterback who hadn’t done much in his first two years and in whom many folks had lost faith. Remind you of anyone?

In baseball news, according to ESPN, 58 players have signed big-league contracts so far. All but one of those (Geoff Blum) have dollar figures listed. Here are the averages:

Hitters (30)
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr  Age
1.67  3.47 35.1

             2004 stats
 AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
336 91 18  2 10 30 55 .271 .333 .427

Pitchers (27)
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr  Age
1.74  4.59 33.9

            2004 stats
 IP  ERA  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
124 4.02 1.324 9.07 0.98 2.84 6.18

Ages are as of July 1, 2005. Qualitative stats may not match quantitative due to rounding.

The hitter closest to average is Damian Miller, the pitcher is Paul Wilson:

Miller
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr Age
   3  2.83  35

             2004 stats
 AB   H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
397 108 25  0  9 39 87 .272 .339 .403

Wilson
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr Age
   2   4.1  32

            2004 stats
   IP  ERA  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
183.2 4.36 1.388 9.41 1.27 3.09 5.73

Color me unimpressed with this year’s free agent market. There have been a few good signings, but way too much money is being thrown at mediocre players, particularly starting pitchers. The best value signings so far, according to this observer:

• Cal Eldred StL, 1 yr/$600k
• John Halama Bos, 1 yr/$1M
• Richard Hidalgo Tex, 1 yr/$5M
• John Mabry StL, 1 yr/$725k
• Matt Mantei Bos, 1 yr/$750k
• Matt Morris StL, 1 yr/$2.5M
• Dennys Reyes SD, 1 yr/$550k
• Glendon Rusch ChN, 2 yr/$4M
• Rudy Seanez SD, 1 yr/$550k
• Todd Walker ChN, 1 yr/$2.5M

Then again, I’m a cheap SOB.

According to ESPN, the Red Sox have signed David Wells to a contract that guarantees him $8M in 2005 and could be as worth as much as $16-18M over two years. And the U-T reports that the Padres are trying to move Jay Payton and Ramon Vazquez to Boston for Dave Roberts.

I’m good with the Pads not trying to compete with Boston for the services of Wells. God bless Boomer for finding the money, but it would not have been very responsible for the Padres to give him that kind of deal.

As for the trade rumor, here are the career numbers of the three players involved:

         Age   AB  BA OBP SLG OPS+
Payton    32 2382 285 335 443 100
Roberts   33 1294 259 335 344  82
Vazquez   28  995 262 334 344  85

If the Red Sox are able to swing this deal, their fans should be happy.

These days most of the talk about Bonds centers on steroids and on his involvement with BALCO, which is a shame because he’s launching an all-out assault on one of the most hallowed records in baseball. I don’t know enough about steroids to offer much analysis on that point. However, I do know that if Bonds is using ‘em, then probably so are a lot of other players and none of them are putting up the numbers Bonds is.

There’s gaining a competitive advantage, and then there’s being a great player. Let’s not, in light of recent events, lose sight of the fact that Bonds has been and continues to be a great player.

That out of the way, we turn to page 573 of The Scouting Report: 1990, where we meet a 25-year-old Bonds (listed at 6-1, 185 lbs.):

…Pittsburgh still is unsure exactly where Bonds should fit into the batting order. Bonds has been mainly a leadoff man with Pittsburgh and has done well in that role… But Bonds also has home run power, making people think he could hit lower in the order… Barry has generally hit poorly with runners in scoring position… He goes after too many bad pitches with men on base, and particularly when the game is on the line… [Bonds] often falls into the rut of holding his hands too close to his body. Thus, he is very vulnerable to hard stuff inside from righthanders… Often, he will refuse to swing at any inside pitch and is frequently called out on strikes… Bonds has outstanding speed and led the Pirates with 32 stolen bases last year… Bonds is perfectly suited to left field and has become one of the top defensive players in the league at that position.

Bonds saw the second most pitches (2,528) in the NL in 1989 and had the lowest home batting average (.204). He was third in walks (93), and fourth in steals of third (7) and intentional walks (22).

Bonds hit .248/.351/.426 in 1989. His OPS+ was 125 (it hasn’t been below 161 in any single season since then). This was the last season before he really became Barry Bonds. The following year marked Bonds’ first 30-homer season. It also saw him break 100 RBI for the first time (actually it saw him break 60 RBI for the first time).

It would have been nearly impossible to foresee Bonds’ threat of the all-time home run mark based on his first four seasons. Clearly he was a good ballplayer, but his comps back then were guys like Tom Brunansky, Jeff Burroughs, and Jack Clark. Solid performers, occasional All-Stars, deserving of a few HOF votes. But certainly no threat to Hank Aaron.

Here are the home run totals of some active players after their age 24 season:

              HR
Rodriguez,Al 189
Griffey,Ke   172
Pujols,Al    160
Jones,An     150
Gonzalez,Ju  140
Guerrero,Vl  136
Dunn,Ad      118
Glaus,Tr     118
Sierra,Ru    114
Chavez,Er    105
Bonds,Ba      84
Sosa,Sa       70
Palmeiro,Ra   33

That’s just off the top of my head. So there are at least 10 guys out there right now who had more homers than Bonds at that age.

Factoids about Bonds:

• Played alongside former big-league outfielders Mike Devereaux and Oddibe McDowell at Arizona State.
• OPS has been above 1.000 every year since 1992.
• OPS has been above 1.200 every year since 2001.
• Has finished first or second in walks every year since 1990, except for 1999, when he played in just 102 games.
• His slugging percentage has been higher than league OPS in three of the past four seasons.
• Top comps at age 24: Brunansky, Burroughs, Clark, Andre Dawson, Harold Baines, Lloyd Moseby, Chet Lemon, and Dwight Evans.
• Top comps at age 39: Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, Aaron, Palmeiro, Ted Williams, Reggie Jackson, Stan Musial, Carl Yastrzemski, and Eddie Murray. All but Palmeiro are in the HOF. Obviously this is a collection of the greatest ever to play the game.

Bonds has never been a favorite of fans, teammates, or the media. But there is no denying his greatness. Before the current steroid issue, detractors pointed to his lack of a World Series ring. Now many of those same people will cry that Bonds’ accomplishments are tainted. To them I would ask:

1. Do steroids improve motor skills and hand-eye coordination?
2. Are other big-league ballplayers taking steroids? If so, why aren’t they seeing similar results in their performance?
3. Cortisone is a steroid that acts as an anti-inflammatory medication. Many athletes receive cortisone injections to allow them to compete when otherwise they couldn’t. You might say it enhances their ability to perform. Are their accomplishments tainted as well?

History will be the judge of Bonds. All I can say is it has been a genuine pleasure to watch the guy play over the years. Sure, I wish he wouldn’t beat up on the Padres so much, but I’m glad to have been around to see him play.

Finally, as always BaseballLibrary.com has an excellent bio on the man.

We’ll look at Deion Sanders on Tuesday. After that, we move onto announcers. Choices are Jeff Brantley, Rob Dibble, Mark Grant, Steve Lyons, Harold Reynolds, and Rick Sutcliffe. Talk to me…