Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

The Padres have brought back old friend Woody Williams, signing the 38-year-old right-hander to a 1-year deal worth a guaranteed $3.5M. The contract could be worth as much as $14.5M over two seasons if he makes 15 starts in 2005.

Williams essentially is a slightly better than league average starter at this stage in his career. He battles, though, and his presence should rub off on the younger pitchers. He could be this year’s David Wells.

On the other hand, Wells may be this years Wells. Maybe the signing of a veteran pitcher like Williams will send a message that the Padres are serious about fielding a contender now, and get Boomer back in the fold sooner rather than later. Kevin Towers is hoping so.

Also coming to San Diego are free agents Geoff Blum and Eric Young (only the U-T is reporting the Young signing).

Blum is a career .254/.316/.398 hitter who can play just about anywhere. He’s an older, less patient version of Ramon Vazquez.

Speaking of Vazquez, with arbitration hanging over his head, his days as a Padre appear to be nearing an end. Too bad. For a fraction of the cost, he could probably do as well as, or better than, Cristian Guzman if given the chance. I doubt Vazquez has much trade value, though.

Anyway, here is the Pads’ 2005 rotation as it now stands:

Rotation '05 sal          '04 stats
                     IP   H BB  SO HR  ERA
Peavy       ???   166.1 146 53 173 13 2.27
Lawrence  $2.25M  203.0 226 55 121 26 4.12
Williams  $3.5M   189.2 193 58 131 20 4.18
Eaton     $3.2M   199.1 204 52 153 28 4.61
May       $3.2M   186.0 234 55 120 38 5.61

That’s pretty solid. Get Wells in there instead of May, and it’s damn good. Fired up? Hell yeah, I am. The Padres may be cheap, but they appear to be spending their money wisely. It’s not like they’re throwing three year contracts at the likes of Kris Benson, Jon Lieber, or Jaret Wright.

Sign Wells to a deal similar to that of Williams. Get Mark Sweeney for the bench. Grab another reliever cheap. (Scott Williamson, anyone? Sure, he’s hurt all the time, but why not try for lightning in a bottle. The Red Sox just inked Matt Mantei to a 1-year deal worth $750k. I’ll bet Williamson could be had for a little more than that.)

Things are happening. Without a lot of fanfare, and without a lot of money, things are happening. Pretty cool if you ask me…

We’re launching an 800+ page web site tomorrow that I’ve been working on since August and I’m fried, so we’ll keep this short and sweet.

According to ESPN’s Transactions page the Padres have offered arbitration to David Wells. Yahoo! backs it up, noting that they now have until January 8 to work out a deal. Sounds like the two sides are trying to get something done. The club declined arbitration to everyone else, most notably Andy Ashby and Antonio Osuna.

Some interesting names not offered arbitration: Scott Williamson, Troy Glaus, Esteban Yan, Chris Hammond, Jeff Kent, Tony Batista, Al Leiter, Richard Hidalgo, Jeromy Burnitz, Mark Sweeney. Hard to believe Glaus can be signed without forfeiting a draft pick, while Vinny Castilla cost the Washington Whatevers a first-rounder. Glaus hasn’t been healthy since 2002, but he has 182 homers and he’s still only 28 years old. He could be a real nice pickup for someone.

Free Agents

We ran one of these last month. A few more guys have signed; here are your average free agents so far:

Hitters (18)
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr  Age
1.67  2.38 34.6

           2004 stats
 AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
299 80 17  1  8 25 47 .268 .328 .409

Pitchers (11)
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr  Age
1.82  4.23 33.5

              2004 stats
 IP  ERA  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
106 4.03 1.306 8.79 0.92 2.97 6.31

Ages are as of July 1, 2005. Qualitative stats may not match quantitative due to rounding.

Three observations:

• Of the 29 players who have signed, only 2 will be under 30 years old next year (Cristian Guzman and Dennys Reyes).
• This is a real good time to be a mediocre pitcher entering your decline phase.
• Reyes and Rudy Seanez look better and better with each passing day, as does the Cubs’ Glendon Rusch.

Ah yes, 1989. Kenneth Branagh’s version of Henry V was in theaters. Milli Vanilli hit #1 three times. And Roger Clemens finished the season with 17 victories, to give him 95 in his brief big-league career.

The Rocket’s entry in The Scouting Report: 1990 is found on page 45. Here are some of the highlights:

Roger Clemens is still among the premiere pitchers in baseball, but his performance has steadily declined over the past four years as he makes the change from complete power pitcher to sometime power pitcher… Arm and shoulder injuries have caused Clemens to dabble in forkballs, sliders and sidarm pitches… Despite his arm problems, Clemens made all but one of his starts and again pitched more than 250 innings [he topped 250 IP four straight years, from age 23 to 27]… He isn’t afraid to knock a big hitter off the plate to establish his territory… He is the workhorse of the Boston staff and one of a few franchise players in baseball.

Clemens led the AL in pitches thrown (4,243), pickoff throws (295), and caught stealing (17), and finished second to Nolan Ryan in strikeouts (fanning 230 at age 26, finishing 71 behind the 42-year-old Ryan).

The Rocket followed four years of steady decline with 21 wins and a 1.93 ERA in 1990, which should have been good enough for his third Cy Young Award. Unfortunately for him, that was the year Bob Welch managed to win 27 games. A quick look at how Clemens and Welch did in 1990:

       IP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9  ERA ERA+
RC  228.1 7.61 0.28 2.13 8.24 1.93 211
BW  238.0 8.09 0.98 2.91 4.80 2.95 126

I wonder how many times in the past 40 or so years a pitcher has won 25+ games while striking out fewer than 5 batters per 9 innings. Still, it’s hard to feel too bad for Clemens, who does have seven Cy Young Awards and an MVP to his credit.

Factoids about Clemens:

• Was born in Dayton, Ohio (not, as I’d assumed, Texas).
• Has struck out 200+ batters in a season 12 times.
• Has never struck out 300 batters in a season.
• Has finished among the top 10 in ERA 13 times in his career; 11 of those were top 5.
• Has finished among the top 10 in wins 12 times in his career; 11 of those were top 5.
• Higher SO/9 at age 41 (9.15) than in any season from ages 26-31 (ranging from 7.51 to 8.86).
• Worked 10 complete games at age 23, 18 at age 24, and 14 at age 25.
• Top comps for career: Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, John Clarkson, Steve Carlton, Don Sutton, Lefty Grove, Randy Johnson, Jim Palmer, Eddie Plank, and Bert Blyleven. Maddux and Johnson will be in the HOF, Blyleven should be in it, the rest already are.

Sure, his kids all have names that start with “K” and he sometimes gets confused with a bat in his hands, but the guy has been one heckuva great pitcher. Baby, we won’t ever forget your number.

Like I said, I’m not real interested in talking about BALCO and steroids. It’s not that I don’t have an opinion or don’t care–obviously this is all pretty disturbing stuff for anyone who loves the game of baseball–but right now there is so much flying around that it’s hard to separate fact from fiction. I don’t know what MLB will or should do about the situation, and I don’t know what impact this will have on the way players of our era are viewed by future generations.

I’ve already gone on longer than I’d intended. I will say that some of the more well-considered commentary I’ve seen is coming from Baseball Musings and Dodger Thoughts. Go visit them or one of the other fine blogs on the right for more discussion on steroids.

So, closer to home, what’s going on? Sean Burroughs will be getting a raise. Thanks to service time already accrued, Burroughs is eligible for arbitration. His salary is expected to top $1M. Scott Linebrink and Ramon Vazquez are the other Padres eligible for arbitration. The club is also working on a long-term deal for Jake Peavy.

Woody Williams, Jose Lima, and Paul Byrd are mentioned as possible fallback options if the Padres don’t re-sign David Wells. Here’s how each of them did in 2004:

    Age     IP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9  ERA ERA+
WW   38  189.2 9.16 0.95 2.75 6.22 4.18 100
JL  "32" 170.1 9.41 1.74 1.80 4.91 4.07 102
PB   34  114.1 9.68 1.42 1.50 6.22 3.94 110

All were roughly league average last year, all are over 30, and all have great control. Lima and Byrd cough up a ton of homers. Lima has anemic strikeout totals.

Given Byrd’s injury history and the fact that he won the fewest (8) games among the three last year, he’d probably be the cheapest. I wouldn’t give him more than a 1-year deal and I’d want it laced with incentives.

I still like the trade Jonny German and I came up with (see comments) where Vazquez would go to Toronto for Josh Towers:

Age     IP   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9  ERA ERA+
 27  116.1 11.45 1.24 2.01 3.95 5.11  95

Sure there are some serious holes in that line, but he’s young and cheap. And it’s not like the Pads have big plans for Vazquez.

Then again, the U-T seems to think a deal with Wells is close so this may all be a pointless exercise anyway. Note that hidden toward the end of the article, Mark Sweeney and Eric Young are mentioned as possible free agent targets:

         Age  PA  BA OBP SLG BB SO OPS+
Sweeney   35 215 266 377 508 32 51 110
Young     38 402 288 377 381 43 28  91

Sweeney is one of the better left-handed pinch-hitters in the game. Young draws walks and mainly plays second base and left field, although he’s got experience everywhere except behind the plate and at first base. Veterans with on base skills? Makes sense to me.

Of course, it’s all speculation at this point. There are still some very good in-house candidates for jobs as well. We’ve already talked about Brad Baker on the pitching side. On offense, guys like Jon Knott and Jake Gautreau (assuming he isn’t taken in the Rule V draft) are probably as ready as they’re going to be and deserve a shot, either in San Diego or somewhere elsewhere.

Anything could happen and it probably will. Stay tuned…

At the eye doctor:

Doc: See that “E” up there?

Me: Um…

Doc: Kind of?

Me: Sure, let’s say I do.

Well, I may not be able to see, but I can talk baseball. We turn now to page 629 of The Scouting Report: 1990 for a detailed look at Mr. Padre:

Gwynn knows the strike zone like a pitcher, and has the knack of hitting the ball exactly where it is pitched… He is that rare player who is virtually impossible to stop… Gwynn has improved tremendously in this department [baserunning], developing into a viable 40-steal a year player… Gwynn is not comfortable in centerfield, feeling that covering all that ground wears down his legs. He’s barely passable there, but still one of the league’s best in right… Gwynn is one of those who lead by example. His work habits are second to none. No matter how well he is hitting, he can be found in the batting cage or studying videos. He also has no qualms about playing hurt.

Listed at 5-11, 199 lbs., Gwynn led the NL in percentage of swings put into play (61.0%), singles (165), and batting average with two strikes (.315) and against RHP (.351). Overall, he hit .336/.389/.424, winning the fourth of his eight batting titles. His OPS+ of 133 was right in line with his career OPS+ of 132. He played 86 games in center (career high), 73 in right. At this stage in his career, Gwynn had 1354 hits, 45 homers, 221 stolen bases, and 233 strikeouts.

Factoids about Gwynn:

• Is all-time leader in assists at SDSU.
• Drafted as a point guard by the NBA San Diego Clippers the same day the Pads’ drafted him in the third round.
• Finished in Top 10 in NL batting average 15 consecutive years (1984-98).
• Was NL All-Star every year from 1984-99 except 1988 (he did win the batting championship that year).
• Won five Gold Glove awards.
• Stole 30+ bases four times (1984, 1986, 1987, 1989).
• Enjoyed best season at age 34 (.394/.454/.568).
• Lowest OPS+ in a season with 400+ PA was 112, in 1990.
• Top comps at age 29: nobody who played after 1938; Edd Roush, Elmer Flick, and Zack Wheat are in the HOF.
• Top comps for career: Wheat, Rod Carew, Paul Waner, Wade Boggs, Sam Rice, Roberto Clemente, Heinie Manush, George Sisler, Sam Crawford, and Vada Pinson. All but Boggs and Pinson are in the HOF.

Speaking of Boggs, here’s how his career totals match up against Gwynn’s:

       G   AB    R    H  2B  HR  RBI
WB  2439 9180 1513 3010 578 118 1014
TG  2440 9288 1383 3141 543 135 1138

      BA  OBP  SLG OPS+   BB  SB
WB  .328 .415 .443 130  1412  24
TG  .338 .388 .459 132   790 319

Boggs drew walks, Gwynn stole bases. There you go.

For a closer look at Gwynn’s HOF credentials, check out guest columnist David Marshall’s excellent Kelternizing Gwynn series that appeared in this space in the spring of 2003. Also, BaseballLibrary.com has some good biographical info on the man and his career.

Hey cool, “blog” is Merriam-Webster’s word of the year. How sweet is that?

Anyway, I mentioned last week that while I was in Phoenix I picked up a copy of The Scouting Report: 1990 at a used bookstore. I’ve been flipping through the book every now and then, and I thought it might be fun to take a quick look at some of these while we’re waiting for the 2005 season.

Without further ado, here are a few excerpts from Finley‘s entry found on page 19:

Everyone in the Baltimore organization thinks this 14th-round pick could be a great one… Finley undercut a few balls, and his lean build [he was listed at 6-2, 175 lbs.] is representative of someone who should hit a lot of line drives… He throws well and plays centerfield like a young Fred Lynn… In the International League Finley was considered such an outstanding prospect that some observers rated him a better prospect than Greg Jefferies… He looks like he’s been around forever, though he’s only 24. He really is a natural.

Finley hit .249/.298/.318 in 217 at-bats in his first exposure to the big leagues. Lofty comparisons here. Lynn won the AL ROY and MVP in 1975. He won four Gold Glove awards and was named to nine all-star teams (he also retired as a Padre, following the 1990 season). Jefferies, a former first-round pick of the Mets, had been named Minor League Player Of The Year by Baseball America in both 1986 and 1987.

Here are their respective career totals:

       G   AB    R    H  2B  HR  RBI
SF  2289 8471 1327 2336 405 285 1071
GJ  1465 5520  761 1593 300 126  663
FL  1969 6925 1063 1960 388 306 1111

      BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
SF  .276 .337 .450 108
GJ  .289 .344 .421 106
FL  .283 .360 .484 130

Although Finley’s qualitative numbers are similar to those of Jefferies, Finley has lasted a lot longer. Lynn was a better player than both. If he’d stayed healthy, he’d be a serious HOF candidate right about now.

Factoids about Finley:

• Has never hit .300 in a single season.
• Has hit 10 or more triples in a season five times and is the active leader with 109 career three-baggers.
• Hit more homers at age 39 (36) than between the ages of 27 and 30 (34).
• Didn’t hit more than 11 homers in a season until age 31, when he hit 30.
• Top comps at age 30: Jerry Mumphrey, Mookie Wilson, Brett Butler, Doug Glanville, Dave Martinez, Joe Orsulak, Randy Winn.
• Top comps at age 39: Jose Cruz, Don Baylor, Chili Davis, Dave Parker, Ellis Burks, Tony Perez, Gary Gaetti.
• Is 15 home runs shy of joining Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Andre Dawson, and Willie Mays as the only big-league hitters to hit 300 homers and steal 300 bases in their career.

I’m going to run one or two of these each week during the off-season. Who should I profile next? Candidates include Wade Boggs, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Tony Gwynn, and Deion Sanders. Talk to me. Who’s it gonna be?

The Padres have signed LHP Dennys Reyes to a 1-year deal worth $550k. Earlier this month we identified Reyes as a guy Kevin Towers and company should target.

You had to figure the Pads would grab another lefty. And with Glendon Rusch staying in Chicago, that left John Halama, Ron Villone, and Reyes as the best available options in the price range.

Reyes has big-league experience starting and relieving. He keeps the ball in the park and he strikes out a fair amount of hitters. An added benefit is that Reyes hails from Mexico, always a consideration in the San Diego/Tijuana market.

I’m sure some folks won’t be happy that the Pads are signing bargain basement guys like Reyes and Rudy Seanez, but if we accept the club’s publicly stated working budget of $65M, then these are exactly the types of players they should be grabbing. Guys who aren’t expensive and who have some upside.

The Padres have laid out $1.1M total for Reyes and Seanez. Here are their combined numbers from 2004:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
154.0 153 15 69 137 4.32 8.94 0.88 4.03 8.01

Not great, but I’ll take it over 3 years/$22.5M for this:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
200.1 202 15 61 134 4.31 9.07 0.67 2.74 6.02

You could argue that the Padres should loosen up the purse strings and go after more high profile talent. Maybe they should. And maybe they will.

Me? Right now I’m happy to see them choose raiding the bargain bins over throwing long-term money at the likes of Benson, Troy Percival, and Omar Vizquel.