Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

The Pads have signed Sean Burroughs to a 1-year contract worth $1.675M guaranteed + $200k in bonuses based on plate appearances. That’s comparable to what the Reds gave Joe Randa (1 year/$2.15M) as a free agent. Here are their respective stats from last year (ages are for 2005 season):

           Age  AB  BA OBP SLG
Burroughs   24 523 298 348 365
Randa       35 485 287 343 408

Seems about right. This might’ve been a good time to try and lock up Burroughs long-term. His value likely never will be lower.

As we mentioned in the comments on Friday, Scott Linebrink has inked a 2-year, $2.275 deal with the Padres. He’ll get $910k this year and $1.365M in 2006.

The Padres also signed RHP Miguel Asencio and outrighted Darrell May to Portland. Sending May to Triple-A apparently was a paper move designed to allow the Padres to sign Asencio, who will start the season on the 60-day DL and is expected back after the All-Star break. May remains the projected fifth starter to begin the season.

Mike Scarr responds to questions about these latest moves over at Padres.com. No news yet on Sean Burroughs, who is eligible for arbitration, although the NC Times indicates that he and the club are making progress on a 1-year deal. Stay tuned…

USD vs Alumni this afternoon. Game was fugly (13-0 current squad when we left in the sixth), but it sure beats watching basketball on television. Among many others I’m forgetting, Tom Caple, Josh Hansen, Joe Lima, Mike McCoy, Jose Ortega, and Greg Sain all represented the Alumni.

Greg Sain waits for his pitch.

The catcher wore red.

Unidentified Alumni submariner.

Just started reading Alan Schwarz’ The Numbers Game. I’m only through the first chapter but already it’s a good read. Among other things, I’ve learned that range factor was first introduced as a defensive metric in the 1870s, ’round about the same time people first started complaining about players caring more about stats and money than about winning. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.

Speaking of Schwarz, he takes a look at different ways of measuring patience at the plate (ESPN, via BTF). Some revealing insights, artfully presented.

And speaking of baseball history, Baseball Musings points us to the Spalding Base Ball Guides, 1889 – 1939 (Library of Congress). You can really lose yourself in these. It’s like traveling back in time.

Back to the present: What more could the Padres have done this off-season?

On the pitching side, assuming they reach a deal with Scott Linebrink, I think the bullpen is about as good as it could be. Maybe the Pads could’ve gone with someone like Billy Koch, Matt Mantei, or Esteban Yan instead of Rudy Seanez, but that’s nitpicking.

As for the rotation, there are a few moves that might have helped:

• Hang onto Dennis Tankersley, see what he can do. Given that they’d pretty well lost faith in him, though, it made sense to move the guy.
• Sign Wade Miller. If they could wait for Adam Eaton, then why not Miller? Power pitcher with big upside.
• Sign Matt Morris. I’m not even a huge Morris fan, but I also assumed he would command around $7-8M a year and never seriously considered him for the Pads. At the price he ended up signing for, he’d have been a mighty good fit. For one thing, he’s cheaper than Darrell May.

I don’t understand how a market that drastically overvalues mediocre pitching (Kris Benson, Jon Lieber, Derek Lowe, Eric Milton, Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright, etc.) can see Miller and Morris earn $4M between them next year. I would’ve loved to slot either of these guys into the 2005 rotation.

Catching? Not much happening there. They’ve got three guys capable of playing at the big-league level, which is great because catchers are always getting dinged. And then there’s George Kottaras in the low minors. No change needed.

Infield? The Padres are pretty set in terms of starters. And there weren’t a lot of good backup types on the market this winter. Miguel Cairo, Damion Easley, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Hernandez, and Todd Walker were probably the best of the lot. Can any of them legitimately play shortstop on more than an emergency basis? I dunno. This, incidentally, is another reason Ramon Vazquez should have been worth more to the Padres or in trade. He ended up re-signing with Boston at 1 yr/$700k. How is that not a better deal than, say, Craig Counsell at 2 yrs/$3.1M?

I guess Geoff Blum is okay, but I’d have kept Vazquez. Failing that, I’d have given J.J. Furmaniak or Jake Gautreau a shot. Furmaniak is more versatile defensively and has demonstrated more power in the minor leagues, Gautreau is a more polished all-around hitter. Neither has much left to prove in the minors. Not a huge deal, but I’d have saved the money on Blum and given one of the kids a chance.

Outfield? We figured the Friars would look to move Terrence Long and Jay Payton. I have no real problem with the Long deal because they essentially redistributed their bad contracts, unloading a relative strength (outfield) for a relative weakness (starting pitching). And conceptually I’m fine with moving Payton if it means getting something of value in return, particularly if it helps clear some payroll.

Given the Padres’ biggest areas of need, I’d have tried to move Payton for a starting pitcher and/or a utility infielder. On the Red Sox, I’d have been asking about Byung-Hyun Kim and Kevin Youkilis. These wouldn’t be great fits for the Pads but at least they’d have potential value.

Not to harp on it, but trading Payton for another outfielder didn’t make much sense from the Padres standpoint. Is sitting Xavier Nady behind the likes of Dave Roberts really part of the master plan? You know, the plan that kept Nady out of the Brian Giles deal two years ago?

And if the idea was to try somebody other than Payton or Nady in center field, then why not take a chance on Richard Hidalgo? Heck, even Todd Hollandsworth or Dustan Mohr might’ve been interesting.

Hindsight is 20-20, and you never know what guys are going to sign for until they actually do sign. But in retrospect I think this is what I’d have done:

1. Signed Miller
2. Signed Hidalgo
3. Traded Payton and Vazquez to the Red Sox for Kim
4. Not signed Blum, instead giving Furmaniak a shot at the utility job

You add about $6M to next year’s payroll, you pick up three intriguing guys with upside. What’s not to like?

That’s what I’d have done. How ’bout you?

First, a correction. The other day when I was talking about the Chris Hammond signing, I referred to Antonio Alfonseca as an example of a guy getting around $2.5 to put up worse numbers. I’d missed that Alfonseca restructured his deal due to a herniated disc in his back.

Anyway, here’s a quick statistical comparison between the new Padres and the players they replace from last year’s squad. Numbers are cumulative for years 2002-2004, ages are as of July 1, 2005:

             Age    IP  ERA  WHIP
Wells,Da      42 614.0 3.88 1.205
Williams,Wo   38 513.7 3.71 1.236

Valdez,Is     31 481.0 5.00 1.391
May,Da        33 527.3 4.81 1.390

Witasick,Ja   32 175.7 3.23 1.304
Hammond,Ch    39 192.7 2.06 1.189

Osuna,An      32 155.0 3.48 1.374
Seanez,Ru     36  87.7 4.52 1.449

Hitchcock,St  34 148.3 5.16 1.517
Reyes,De      28 203.3 5.36 1.633

        H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WS
Wells  9.60 1.00 1.25 4.97 39
Wllms  8.71 0.88 2.42 6.31 31

Vldz  10.18 1.53 2.34 4.04 18
May    9.81 1.66 2.70 5.63 27

Wtsck  8.04 0.87 3.69 7.84 11
Hmmnd  8.13 0.47 2.57 6.63 26

Osuna  8.94 0.41 3.43 8.65 15
Seanz  8.01 1.03 5.03 9.75  6

Hitch 10.31 1.40 3.34 6.86  4
Reyes 10.05 1.06 4.65 7.35  9

Here’s the cumulative stat line from 2002 to 2004 for the above guys (age is averaged):

           Age     IP  ERA  WHIP
Outgoing  34.2 1574.0 4.23 1.319
Incoming  34.8 1524.7 4.15 1.348

      H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WS
Out  9.61 1.13 2.26 5.55 87
In   9.16 1.13 2.98 6.45 99

Generally got guys who put the ball past hitters a little better but who don’t throw quite as many strikes. Slight downgrade from Wells/Valdez to Williams/May in the rotation, slight upgrade from Witasick/Osuna to Hammond/Seanez in the bullpen. If Seanez is healthy, he could match Osuna. As Hitchcock was the wild card last year, so will Reyes be this year.

And the hitters:

            Age   AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/K  WS
Payton,Ja    32 1503 .289 .344 .460 0.61  45
Roberts,Da   33 1129 .261 .341 .349 0.93  39

Long,Te      29 1361 .253 .304 .395 0.46  29
Sweeney,Ma   35  339 .245 .333 .434 0.46   8

Vazquez,Ra   28  960 .264 .338 .348 0.57  25
Blum,Ge      32 1127 .255 .311 .390 0.52  23

Robinson,Ke  31  481 .262 .298 .339 0.38   9
Young,Er     38 1315 .271 .348 .380 1.26  27

Outgoing   30.0 4305 .269 .325 .401 0.53 108
Incoming   34.5 3910 .261 .334 .379 0.78  97

Got older at four spots. Except for Roberts, none of these guys should get more than 250-300 PA so that’s probably not a big deal. Slightly lower batting average and slugging, better on base. Big drop from Payton to Roberts in center, potential drop from Vazquez to Blum on the infield, upgrades from Long to Sweeney and from Robinson to Young in the outfield.

Still wish there was a way the Padres could’ve done all that without losing Payton. Or Vazquez. Or David Pauley. Or a big wad of cash.

I’m hurtin’ here, so this will be another quick one. Watched a little of the Padres’ June 11 victory over the Yankees on Channel 4 last night. Great pitching by Adam Eaton, and what a bomb Phil Nevin hit off Gabe White in the ninth. Is it baseball season yet?

This time last year: Vlad gets his wings, Kendall is (again) rumored to be coming to San Diego, and the Padres eye free agent Jay Payton.

In other news, Minor Details reports that John Sickels’ “Down on the Farm” column will be closing up shop over at ESPN.com come Feb. 1. Most of you are familiar with Sickels’ work by now. If not, you should be. He’s been at the very front of baseball prospect analysis for more than a decade. Best of luck to John in wherever his travels take him.

There’s probably other stuff going on, but I’ve exceeded my quota for sitting upright.

Still recovering from the weekend. Great shows, thanks for asking. This will be short:

• SDSU Aztecs. Alumni game Sat., Jan. 22. Three against Texas Feb. 4 – 6. Fullerton Mar. 1. Padres at Petco Park Mar. 30.
• USD Toreros. CETYS Sun., Jan. 16. Three against Cal Poly Jan. 21 – 23. Northridge Feb. 1. USC Mar. 15. Pepperdine Apr. 15 – 17. LMU May 13 – 15.
• UCSD Tritons. Alumni games Jan. 15 & Feb. 4. Vanguard Feb. 5.
• PLNU Sea Lions. Three against Northwood U. (Tex.) Jan. 28 & 29.

Go out there and watch some baseball…

First off, congrats to the Chargers on their fine season. Even though they fell a bit short, they came a lot farther a lot faster than most people could have imagined (myself included; I had their best case as 5-11). What a great year for pro sports in San Diego. This was the first time both major franchises finished with a winning record since 1992, when the Padres went 82-80 and the Bolts were 11-5.

In fact, this is just the third time ever that the Pads and Chargers have finished with winning records in the same year:

       Pads  Bolts
2004  87-75  12-4
1992  82-80  11-5
1978  84-78   9-7

Geez, you could actually make a case for 2004 being the best year ever in San Diego pro sports history. I suppose you could go with 1963, when the Chargers won the AFL championship. Then again, there were only eight teams in the entire league.

Anyway, as noted in the comments of Friday’s entry, the Padres have signed LHP Chris Hammond to a 1-year deal worth $750k.

Hammond came up through the Reds organization back in the early-’90s as a starter. He had one decent season with the Marlins, in 1995, posting a 3.80 ERA over 24 starts. He then worked his way out of the big leagues after three starts in 1998.

Hammond re-emerged with the Braves in 2002 as a full-time reliever. After nearly four years out of the big leagues and in a new role, he posted a 0.95 ERA in 76 innings. He followed up with ERAs under 3.00 for the Yankees and A’s in the following two seasons. Here is Hammond’s stat line since resurrecting his career:

   IP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9  ERA  WHIP
192.2 8.13 0.47 2.57 6.63 2.06 1.189

In a market where the likes of Antonio Alfonseca, Rheal Cormier, Dustin Hermanson, and Bob Wickman are commanding $2.5M per year, I’ll take Hammond’s production for that price any day of the week. Sure, he’s 39 years old. But Cormier is 38, and here’s what he’s done the last three seasons:

   IP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9  ERA  WHIP
225.2 7.38 0.68 3.31 6.46 3.31 1.188

Not bad, but is that really worth 2 years for $5.25M? I dunno. But I’m pretty sure I’d rather have Hammond at $750k for 1 year.

I know some of Padres nation isn’t thrilled with the relative inactivity of the home club this off-season, and that’s understandable given what other teams are doing. In the coming days and weeks we’ll take a closer look at what exactly the Friars have done and how the current version compares with last year’s squad.