Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Oct 07, 2005 (0) Comments

Haven’t done one of these in a while. They’ve been piling up over here, and now I give them to you:

  • Laurence Simon at This Blog Is Full of Crap is keeping track of which bloggers are rooting for which team in the playoffs. He may also be sending folks over here to mock me in the comments. If you’re one of those people, welcome to Ducksnorts. :-)
  • Padres return home for Game 3 on brink of elimination (Yahoo!). Gotta love Dave Roberts‘ optimism: “We’re relaxed. Coming into this series we were the underdogs. We’ve got nothing to lose, and I think that we’ll go out and play like it.”
  • Xavier Nady shares his thoughts on Game 1 with the Monterey County Herald.
  • Kottaras, four others en route to AFL (Padres.com). In addition to C George Kottaras, the others are LHP Craig Breslow, RHP Jack Cassel, LHP Rusty Tucker, and 1B Michael Johnson. Not an overwhelming group, but some potentially useful parts.
  • David Jay at Scout.com also has some info on Padres in the AFL. Tucker, for one, seems to be having trouble throwing strikes.
  • The Padres have the lowest payroll among teams that made the playoffs this year. The second lowest belongs to the Chicago White Sox, who just finished a sweep of the Red Sox. Last year’s World Series champs had the second highest payroll in all of baseball in 2005. They also were outscored, 24-9, in their series.
  • In sad news, longtime blogger John Bonnes of Twins Geek fame is hanging ‘em up. I’m sorry to see John leave not only because I’ve been reading his stuff forever but also because I’ve actually had a chance to meet him and he’s a heckuva good guy. It’s tough to say goodbye, but I totally understand and respect his reasons for doing so. That said, the baseball blogosphere has taken a big hit. Best of luck, John.

Second Verse, Same as the First

by Geoff Young on Oct 07, 2005 (15) Comments

Wins needed for WS championship: 11

Give the Cardinals credit. They know what to do with opportunity. They see it, they pounce. They don’t screw around like some teams I know.

Those of us who have followed the Padres all season know that what we’ve seen in the first two games of the NLDS is pretty representative. They hit, but not when it counts. And they cannot play defense.

The Padres have hung tough, but they have not been able to do what the Cardinals have — execute when it matters. And right now, that is the difference in the series.

Good Hitting vs Efficient Hitting

The point of the game, of course, is to win. To do that, you need to score more runs than your opponent. To do that, in turn, you generally need to hit better than your opponent.

At the risk of veering off onto some weird philosophical tangent, how do we define good hitting? In the abstract, we often use metrics such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage to demonstrate how well an individual player or an entire team hits. We may say of a player or team that he is a “good” hitter if he meets or exceeds some predetermined measurable level.

But a game isn’t an abstraction. It is a contest between two teams, a battle for supremacy as measured by who scores more runs in the allotted time.

We can talk about correlations and such, but in the end, it comes down to who got the job done. This is especially true in a short series, where nobody has the luxury of letting things “even out” over the course of a much larger sample.

Which One Is Cardinal Fang?

Readers Didi and Jay threw out some revealing numbers during yesterday’s In-Game Discussion. I’ve consolidated what they found and tweaked the presentation:

Team Hitting, Games 1 and 2
Team AB BA OBP SLG GIDP LOB
Game 1
Padres 37 .351 .405 .486 3 10
Cardinals 33 .303 .378 .515 1 5
Game 2
Padres 33 .303 .395 .333 4 9
Cardinals 30 .200 .314 .267 1 7
Composite
Padres 70 .329 .400 .414 7 19
Cardinals 63 .254 .347 .397 2 12

I don’t know about you, but if somebody had told me the Pads would have a significantly higher average, OBP, and SLG than their opponent through the first two games, I’d have been pretty happy.

Now look at the Cardinals offense. They’ve basically hit like Gregg Zaun and parlayed it into 14 runs over two games. That’s hard to do. Some might attribute their production thus far to a ruthless efficiency. (Or, because they are Cardinals, perhaps an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope. But I digress.)

Stay Classy, San Diego — Except on Defense

In addition to the Pads’ inability to capitalize on opportunities, there is another point worth noting: The Padres appear to be completely outclassed on defense in this series.

I could give a lot of anecdotal evidence about positioning, jumps, throws, and such, but I’d like to concentrate on double plays. The Cards have turned seven of ‘em in this series, and as our esteemed guest CalvinPitt noted yesterday, they induced more double plays than any other team in the big leagues this year.

So I did a little research. During the regular season, the Cardinals averaged 1.221 twin killings per nine innings. As noted, that was the best mark in baseball (just ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates).

The Padres? They checked in at — brace yourself — .841 per nine. Only the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies were worse.

The Cardinals turned .380 more double plays per nine innings than did the Padres. If my math is correct, that means the Pads had to face an extra batter roughly every three games to get the same number of outs. (Tip o’ the cap to MLB.com for stats.)

How relevant is this to the current situation? Good question. Seven double plays in two games is pretty well off the charts. But as we are fond of saying, anything can happen in a short series.

Better Execution, Better Results

The larger point is that the Cardinals’ fielders shorten games for their pitchers and pick them up when they get into trouble. The Padres don’t. It’s that simple.

Look, we all knew going into this that the Cardinals were the better team. You don’t win 18 more games during the regular season by accident.

But I think some of us who have followed the Padres all season long are surprised that the final outcomes of the first two games haven’t been closer because we see the hitting numbers and have an idea in our head of what those should equate to in terms of runs and, by extension, victories. And when there’s a disconnect between expectation and reality, it’s frustrating.

Bottom line is that even though the Padres hitters are putting up solid numbers and the pitchers by and large have handled a very potent offense, this team simply cannot execute the way the Cardinals can. And when you think about it, there isn’t any shame in that. After all, the Cardinals did win more games than any other team in MLB this year.

And, of course, they have nice red uniforms.

Playoff IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (6 Oct 2005)

by Geoff Young on Oct 06, 2005 (243) Comments

first pitch: 10:05 a.m., PT
television: ESPN2
matchup: Pedro Astacio vs Mark Mulder
preview: Yahoo!

Whatever else folks might say about the Padres, nobody can accuse them of quitting on themselves or their fans. As they have done all year, the Padres on Tuesday battled back after finding themselves in a precarious situation. They almost stole a victory despite falling behind 8-0 early and losing ace Jake Peavy to a fractured rib.

No, they didn’t win. But neither did they quit.

Condescension or Comprehension?

You will hear a lot of experts speak in condescending tones about the Padres because of their regular season record, the quality of play in the NL West, and whatever reason happens to be convenient. That shouldn’t be too surprising: condescension requires a good deal less effort than any genuine attempt at comprehension. It is much easier to dismiss the Padres with a sneer, a guffaw, a rolling of the eyes than it is to examine the situation and try to figure out whether the “obvious outcome” really is obvious.

With that in mind, one question we might consider is how the Game 2 starters have fared against the batters they are likely to face:

Astacio and Mulder: Head-to-Head Matchups
  AB BA OBP SLG
Astacio vs current Cardinals 203 .335 .378 .581
Mulder vs current Padres 84 .393 .458 .571

Neither starter has shown much of an ability to retire guys on the other team. For the Cardinals, Larry Walker (.500/.533/.846 in 26 AB) and Albert Pujols (.364/.333/1.182 in 11 AB) have posted silly numbers against Astacio. The only guy who hasn’t owned Astacio is Game 1 hero Reggie Sanders (.265/.315/.490 in 49 AB), and even he’s done reasonably well.

For the Padres, the sample is a lot smaller. Joe Randa (.375/.409/.625 in 40 AB) and Eric Young (.389/.500/.556 in 18 AB) are the only current Friars who have logged more than 10 at-bats against Mulder. Former top prospect Xavier Nady has faced Mulder three times and has two singles and a double. The Padres have been reluctant to give Nady much of a chance as a starter, but now might be a time to stick him in the lineup.

Battle of Bullpens?

If we are to believe these numbers ― and given the sample size against Mulder and the Padres’ Jekyll-and-Hyde offense, it’s hard to know what to believe ― we would be right to expect both teams to score some runs.

If that is the case, then the game could become a battle of the bullpens. Based on their respective showings in Game 1, such a battle would seem to favor the Padres (4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO on Tuesday, vs 3.0, 10, 5, 1, 3 for the Cardinals).

I Feel Fine, I Feel Happy

Here’s the thing about the Padres: They won’t die. You whack them on the back of the head, you think they are dead. Next thing you know, they want to go for a walk.

They’re stubborn that way.

The Punch Line

Nobody is giving the Padres a chance to win. Nobody really even wants the Padres to win. It’s bad for business, you know?

But here’s the crazy thing. If the Pads can hit Mulder as they have in the past and get to him early, and if Astacio can give his team even 5 solid innings (which he’s been able to do more often than not since coming over from Texas), they have a fighting chance. And assuming that the Padres are prepared to fight, that just might be enough.

Crazy, right? I think I’ll go for a walk now.

Hey Adam, Could You Spare a Rib?

by Geoff Young on Oct 05, 2005 (9) Comments

Well. So much for the Padres sweeping the series, eh?

Thank you. Stick around; the jokes get worse.

Not quite the coming-out party that Jake Peavy and the Padres were hoping for Tuesday morning in St. Louis. On the other hand, folks who aren’t familiar with the Friars got a nice little 9-inning capsule of their season. The formula goes like this:

  1. Dig a large hole with sloppy defense and poor clutch hitting.
  2. Scratch and claw back to within striking distance.
  3. Come up just short.
  4. Lose a key player in the process.
  5. Better luck next time, or maybe not.

Peavy looked very strong in the early going, breezing through the first two innings except for a solo homer to Jim Edmonds. Then in the third, the Padres defense started doing what it does. Edmonds dunked a blooper into shallow left that Ryan Klesko couldn’t reach. After a Peavy wild pitch scored the Cards’ second run of the game, Reggie Sanders lined a shot toward Mark Sweeney at first. Sweeney couldn’t handle it, and the ball rolled into shallow right field for a two-run single. It was a tough play, but as ESPN broadcaster Jon Miller noted, “A real top notch first baseman would’ve gotten that ball.”

Meanwhile, Chris Carpenter wasn’t able to command his breaking ball early and the Padres had numerous opportunities to do damage. But double plays ended the second, third, and fourth innings, and the Pads came up empty. What else is new, right?

A grand slam off the bat of Sanders in the fifth made the score 8-0 and the game looked to be over. But the Padres, as has been the case most of the season, didn’t go down without a fight. They scored single runs in the seventh and eighth, and three in the ninth. Ramon Hernandez, representing the tying go-ahead (thanks to reader LynchMob for pointing this out in the comments) run, struck out against closer Jason Isringhausen to end the contest. So the Pads didn’t quite make it all the way back but they at least put a little fear into the Cardinals and their fans.

Or, rather, they would have put fear into the Cards if it weren’t for Peavy’s rib. Peavy, in case you missed it, has a fractured rib that apparently will knock him out the rest of the way. He thinks he broke it during last week’s celebration of the NL West title.

I did mention that the jokes get worse, didn’t I?

Here’s one for you, courtesy of longtime reader Eric in the In-Game Discussion:

Ironic that we could have won this game if Peavy hadn’t pitched. All our other pitchers shut them down today, and we ended up scoring 5 runs.

Hertz Donut.

Anyway, all is not lost. I hold out hope that the Padres can stave off the inevitable chorus of self-congratulatory “I told you sos” from a bunch of wags back east who don’t really know where San Diego is. Not that anything will stop them from doing that, because that’s what they do, but if the Pads can just shut ‘em up for a little while I’ll be happy.

Can the Padres win the series? Of course they can. If you truly believed that they didn’t have a chance, would you even watch? I’ll grant you, it’s not likely, but if Darrell May can beat Johan Santana, and Chan Ho Park can beat Pedro Martinez, anything is possible. Heck, even the 1984 Padres lost the first game of their series against the Cubs, 13-0.

Now you may ask, “Geoff, why are you so damned positive about this team?” Two reasons, neither of which has anything to do with baseball:

  1. In life, it’s generally easier to be negative than positive. I have a tremendous capacity for negative thinking myself. But I’m stubborn and don’t like to do things the easy way. So I stay positive.
  2. Being positive annoys people who aren’t. If there’s anything I like better than being positive, it’s annoying negative people. This probably isn’t the most noble reason to be positive, but go with what works for you.

Okay, enough of the pop philosophy. Right now the Padres need to regroup and play better baseball. They need to focus on Game 2 and find a way to overcome the loss of Peavy. And most of all, they need to stay away from those Hertz Donuts.

Playoff IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (4 Oct 2005)

by Geoff Young on Oct 04, 2005 (281) Comments

first pitch: 10:05 a.m., PT
television: ESPN
matchup: Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter
preview: Yahoo!

The moment we have all been waiting for is finally upon us. For the first time since October 21, 1998, the Padres are playing a post-season game. And thanks to the brilliant minds that run our national pasttime, it will be broadcast live on local television at 10 o’clock on a Tuesday morning.

Whether you are a Cardinals fan checking out Ducksnorts to get the dirt on your team’s playoff opponent, or your team’s season has come to an end and you’re curious to find out what all the fuss is about this baseball team that some feel is not playoff worthy, or you’ve been suffering all year long (and, in some cases, much longer) with these Padres of San Diego, I bid you welcome. And I promise that that last sentence was as pretentious as it ever gets around these parts.

As we do every game, we’ll be chatting about the contest and anything else that comes to mind. The structure is pretty loose. Add something if you feel like it, don’t if you don’t. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy your stay.

Okay, so if you work weird hours and are near a TV for this one, maybe tell us what’s happening. The pitching matchup for Game 1 has the potential to be brilliant:

Peavy vs Carpenter

Here’s how the two staff aces compare over all their starts this season.

Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter, 2005 Total
Pitcher IP/GS ERA H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 #P/IP GSc
Peavy 6.77 2.88 7.18 2.22 9.58 0.80 15.6 61.4
Carpenter 7.32 2.83 7.61 1.90 7.95 0.67 14.1 61.4

Peavy is more of a power pitcher, which means he can be very dominant but also that he isn’t as efficient as Carpenter nor does he go as deep into games. Interesting that their average game scores are identical.

How about their best and worst starts of the season? Here is the composite of the top 10 game scores for each this year:

Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter, 2005 Top 10 Game Scores
Pitcher IP/GS ERA H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 #P/IP GSc
Peavy 7.90 0.45 4.20 1.48 9.32 0.00 13.8 79.1
Carpenter 8.42 0.53 3.95 1.28 8.87 0.43 12.8 81.4

These are just sick numbers. Peavy’s best start of the season came June 20 at home against the Dodgers (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 SO); Carpenter’s came less than a week before (June 14) at Toronto (9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 SO). If both guys are on their game, this could be a classic postseason pitchers duel. Slight advantage to Carpenter.

And their 10 worst starts?

Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter, 2005 Bottom 10 Game Scores
Pitcher IP/GS ERA H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 #P/IP GSc
Peavy 5.80 6.57 10.80 2.82 9.23 1.72 17.9 42.5
Carpenter 5.65 7.33 12.42 3.66 7.96 1.27 16.8 38.1

When these guys explode, each does it in his own way. Peavy maintains his high strikeout numbers but becomes susceptible to the gopher ball. Carpenter, on the other hand, becomes eminently hittable and loses his control. Peavy’s lows aren’t quite as low as Carpenter’s.

Peavy’s worst start: July 21 at the Mets (5 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 4 SO); Carpenter’s worst: April 10 at the Phillies (3.1 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 2 BB, 2 SO).

Pitchers vs Hitters

Peavy has held current Cardinals hitters to a .230/.309/.391 line over 70 at-bats. Mark Grudzielanek (.455/.455/.727 in 11 AB) and Albert Pujols (.556/.667/1.000 in 9 AB) have done the bulk of the damage.

Current Padres hitters sport a line of .255/.297/.396 against Carpenter over 149 at-bats. Joe Randa (.281/.281/.563 in 32 AB) and Brian Giles (.313/.353/.500 in 16 AB) have had marginal success, as have Mark Sweeney and Robert Fick in very small samples.

Umpire

Ed Montague will call balls and strikes in Game 1. I don’t know what stock anyone puts into umpire stats (thanks to dprat for providing the link), but here are Montague’s numbers for the year:

           G   Inn   RA   BA  OBP  SLG Str%
Montague  33 597.1 5.48 .281 .342 .452 .630

Montague’s run total is highest among the 61 umpires who worked 30 or more games behind the plate in 2005. The batting average and SLG are also tops, while OBP checks in at #4. The percentage of pitches that were strikes is about middle of the pack. Like I said, I don’t know how much this really comes into play, but there it is.

Numbers Don’t Lie; People Who Use Numbers Lie

Thanks to Brian G. for updating us on the status of Dave Roberts, Winning Machine, in yesterday’s comments. If you missed it (and what’s your excuse?), here’s the deal: “The Padres are 58-43 (.574) when Dave Roberts starts.” Indications are that Roberts will be in the lineup Tuesday morning. Sweet.

Handy Stuff at Padres.com

I’m trying to pack a lot of info in here today, so not much commentary on these.

Cardinals Takes

Several Cardinals bloggers have gotten together and posted a roundtable discussion of their first-round playoff series against the Padres:

Two take-home lessons: First, there is some really well-considered discussion here. Second, we need more Padres bloggers. :-)

And of course, a Padres win this morning is mandatory. So grab a cup of coffee and hang out with us. These are good times.

Playoff Preview: Padres vs Cardinals

by Geoff Young on Oct 03, 2005 (24) Comments

So the Padres will play the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs. Let’s take a little look at this here series. For those of you joining us who don’t follow the Pads, welcome and I’ll see if I can help introduce this team to you. For those of you who hang out here all the time and know all the Enzos and Sixtos of Padres baseball, bear with me if I go into greater detail on some points than usual.

Disclaimers out of the way, here’s what we’ve got:

Schedule

Game 1: Tue., Oct. 4, @StL, Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter, 10 a.m. PT, ESPN
Game 2: Thu., Oct. 6, @StL, Pedro Astacio vs TBD, 10 a.m. PT, ESPN
Game 3: Sat., Oct. 8, @SD, everything else TBD
Game 4 (if needed): Sun., Oct. 9, @SD, Peavy vs TBD, everything else TBD
Game 5 (if needed): Mon., Oct. 10, @StL, everything else TBD

Position Players

Starters

Catcher

Pads: Ramon Hernandez, 369/.290/.322/.450 (AB/BA/OBP/SLG)
Cards: Yadier Molina, 385/.252/.295/.358

Hernandez missed all of August due to surgery on his left wrist. With a clean bill of health, his bat was one of the few the Padres were able to count on down the stretch, as he hit .319/.355/.522 after the All-Star break. Defensively, Hernandez calls a good game but is just okay at throwing out potential base stealers (25.7%) and doesn’t block the plate well.

On the flip side, Molina doesn’t hit much but he also completely shuts down the running game, having allowed only 14 stolen bases in 39 attempts this year. Padres don’t run much, so that shouldn’t be too much of a factor.

Advantage: Padres.

First Base

Pads: Mark Sweeney, 221/.294/.395/.466
Cards: Albert Pujols, 591/.330/.430/.609

Sweeney has 35 career homers in more than 1300 big-league at-bats; Pujols has 41 jacks in 2005 alone. Sweeney is a perennial fan favorite; Pujols is a perennial MVP candidate. Sweeney is a future ex-big-leaguer; Pujols is a future Hall of Famer.

Advantage: C’mon, were you even paying attention?

Second Base

Pads: Mark Loretta, 404/.280/.360/.347
Cards: Mark Grudzielanek, 528/.294/.334/.407

Last year Loretta was among the elite at his position in the big leagues. This year he has been hurt and his power has all but disappeared. Loretta can get on base and move runners around, but he’s no longer an offensive force. Defensively, his range factor (4.59) and zone rating (.818) are not up to par with his first two seasons with the Padres. Loretta still has the good hands and turns the double play well.

Grudzielanek did what he usually does ― hack his way to a slightly above-average offensive season ― and his defensive numbers this year are terrific (range factor 5.36, zone rating .861). He also was involved in more double plays (108) than any other second sacker in all of baseball.

Advantage: It kills me to say this because if he’s healthy, I take Loretta, but I have to give it to the Cardinals.

Third Base

Pads: Joe Randa, 555/.276/.335/.452
Cards: Abraham Nunez, 421/.285/.343/.361

Randa was having a career year with the Reds (.289/.356/.491) before coming to San Diego in a deadline deal. Since joining the Padres, Randa has reverted to version 2001, hitting just .256/.303/.395 in 58 games. He also is not the defender that erstwhile starter Sean Burroughs was, being fairly reliable but showing limited range (range factor 2.32, zone rating .802).

For the Cardinals, there is no Scott Rolen, which means most of the time has gone to utility player Nunez. The Cards lose a lot offensively, but Nunez has been solid in the field (range factor 3.20, zone rating .791). Nunez’ OPS after the All-Star break (664) is nearly 100 points lower than it was before the break (753).

Advantage: Padres, but not by much.

Shortstop

Pads: Khalil Greene, 436/.250/.296/.431
Cards: David Eckstein, 630/.294/.363/.395

Greene missed 41 games this year due to injury and didn’t build on his fine rookie campaign the way many folks expected. He can be pitched to (witness the low OBP), but he also possesses power uncommon in a shortstop (among those with 450+ PA, only Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Tejada, Bill Hall, Felipe Lopez, and Michael Young had a higher ISO than Greene’s .181). On defense, Greene positions himself well, has a strong arm, and makes highlight reel plays. However, his metrics aren’t great (range factor 4.14, zone rating .859).

Eckstein gets on base, hustles, and is a scrappy player. He lacks the arm for short but he doesn’t let that keep him from playing the position. Like the rest of the St. Louis infield, Eckstein has good defensive numbers (range factor 5.11, zone rating .833, 123 double plays ― second in the majors only to Pittsburgh’s Jack Wilson).

Advantage: Cardinals, but not by much.

Left Field

Pads: Ryan Klesko, 443/.248/.358/.418
Cards: Reggie Sanders, 295/.271/.340/.546

Klesko came to the Padres in a December 1999 trade from the Atlanta Braves that involved Sanders. Klesko led the club with 18 homers, the first time the Padres had failed to produce a single 20-homer guy in a non-strike year since 1988, When Carmelo Martinez topped out at 18 (that team, incidentally, finished the season 82-79). Klesko brings nothing to the table defensively and was MIA with the bat after the All-Star break (.210/.330/.325).

Sanders missed much of the season due to injury but still managed to knock 21 home runs despite just 295 at-bats. Sanders actually has a lower range factor and zone rating than Klesko. I have a pet theory that a park factor is at work here. Outfielders who call Petco Park home have numbers that make them look better than they are, and infielders experience the opposite effect. That’s a theory of mine, anyway.

Advantage: Cardinals.

Center Field

Pads: Dave Roberts, 411/.275/.356/.428
Cards: Jim Edmonds, 467/.263/.385/.533

Roberts had the best OPS of his career in 2005; Edmonds had the worst of his since 1999, and still more than 130 points separates the two of them. Roberts exceeded all expectations offensively but was a bit overmatched as an everyday center fielder. Edmonds is one of the best of his generation at the position.

Advantage: This might actually be more of a mismatch than at first base.

Right Field

Pads: Brian Giles, 545/.301/.423/.483
Cards: Larry Walker, 315/.289/.384/.502

Giles led the bigs with 119 walks and generally is the man around whom the Padres offense revolves. He also is a capable right fielder who plays the difficult corner at Petco with grace. Like most of the other San Diego outfielders, he doesn’t have a strong throwing arm. Unlike some of the others, however, he almost always knows what to do with it. He positions himself well, has a quick release, and generally throws to the right place. Giles plays hard and he plays smart.

Walker, like Sanders, spent much of 2005 hurt. He finished strong, hitting .330/.396/.543 after the All-Star break. I haven’t seen Walker play this year so I don’t know what his defense is like. He used to be an outstanding right fielder, with great instincts and a great arm, but that was many years ago. I would imagine that injuries have taken their toll on his defensive skills. Walker is, in many ways, similar to Giles ― “hard” and “smart” are two good words to describe Walker’s style of play as well.

Advantage: Padres.

Bench

Pads: Xavier Nady (.259/.320/.438), Sean Burroughs (.250/.319/.296), Damian Jackson (.255/.335/.342), Robert Fick (.265/.340/.365), Eric Young (.275/.356/.380), Miguel Olivo (.217/.246/.367), Ben Johnson (.213/.310/.467)
Cards: So Taguchi (.288/.322/.412), John Mabry (.240/.295/.407), John Rodriguez (.295/.382/.436), Hector Luna (.285/.344/.409), Einar Diaz (.208/.248/.277), Scott Seabol (.219/.272/.295)

For the Pads, Nady is limited mainly to first base, left field, and right field. He can play other positions but he won’t. Jackson is fast and can play anywhere on the infield or outfield, but has no arm. Fick can do about what Nady does, although he’ll also get behind the dish in a pinch. Young is a slightly better version of Jackson. Olivo hit .298/.336/.482 in 36 games with the Padres and provided a real shot in the arm when Hernandez was on the DL. Johnson has serious power from the right side and was a teammate of Pujols’ in the low minor leagues. He also has the best outfield arm. Burroughs is a slap-hitting lefty who is limited defensively to third base.

I’m guessing at the Cardinals’ bench. Looks like Rodriguez and Luna are the best of the lot. Mabry has been around a while and is comparable to Fick. Diaz is your standard-issue backup catcher.

Advantage: Looks pretty even to me. Maybe a slight advantage to the Padres, but probably not enough to make a difference.

Pitchers

Rotation

Pads: Jake Peavy (203.0 IP, 2.88 ERA, .217/.271/.363 BA/OBP/SLG), Pedro Astacio (126.2, 4.69, .271/.323/.447), Adam Eaton (128.2, 4.27, .275/.335/.438), Brian Lawrence (195.2, 4.83, .273/.329/.420), Woody Williams (159.2, 4.85, .275/.330/.464)
Cards: Chris Carpenter (241.2, 2.83, .231/.273/.351), Jeff Suppan (194.1, 3.57, .275/.335/.428), Mark Mulder (205.0, 3.64, .273/.339/.410), Matt Morris (189.2, 3.94, .276/.315/.426), Jason Marquis (207.0, 4.13, .262/.324/.427)

Over the past two seasons, Peavy is the best pitcher on the planet not named Roger Clemens. Peavy won the NL ERA title in 2004 and he won the NL strikeout title this year. Few people outside of San Diego seem to know who he is, but I’ll put him up against anyone. Astacio’s overall numbers are fairly pedestrian, but in 10 starts with the Pads, he has a tidy 3.17 ERA. There’s a good chance he’ll turn into a pumpkin before too long, but then again, he could be to this club what Sterling Hitchcock was to the 1998 team. Eaton has frontline stuff, but injuries and inconsistency have kept him from realizing his potential. His ERA is well over 6.00 since the All-Star break. Lawrence and Williams have gotten hit pretty hard this year. Williams probably gets the nod as the #4 starter due to his previous playoff experience. If Lawrence works out of the bullpen, maybe the Padres can limit his exposure to left-handed batters, who hit .300/.366/.475 off him this year.

Carpenter probably wins the 2005 NL Cy Young Award, and deservedly so. He had a tremendous season by any standards. To do it after all he’s been through in his career is remarkable. As for those other four starters, there’s not a lot separating them. Suppan is dependable, but his ERA seems a bit lower than it should be. His opponent batting numbers aren’t appreciably different from those of Astacio, Eaton, and Lawrence. Ditto Mulder. And the others have slightly higher ERAs, but nothing really stands out about any of them. Actually, that’s not true. What stands out about this staff is that these five guys made all but two of the Cardinals’ starts this year. That kind of continuity is hard to find.

Advantage: Cardinals, but it’s closer than you might think.

Bullpen

Pads: Clay Hensley (47.2, 1.70, .195/.266/.237), Scott Linebrink (73.2, 1.83, .209/.273/.312), Rudy Seanez (60.1, 2.69, .222/.297/.335), Trevor Hoffman (57.2, 2.97, .235/.273/.344), Akinori Otsuka (62.2, 3.59, .234/.336/.328)
Cards: Jason Isringhausen (59.0, 2.14, .203/.295/.292), Al Reyes (62.2, 2.15, .177/.261/.288), Cal Eldred (37.0, 2.19, .259/.353/.356), Brad Thompson (55.0, 2.95, .227/.293/.345), Ray King (40.0, 3.38, .293/.367/.446), Julian Tavarez (65.2, 3.43, .279/.347/.414), Randy Flores (41.2, 3.46, .240/.306/.390)

Hensley was stolen from the Giants in 2003 in a trade involving reliever Matt Herges. Hensley doesn’t throw hard but has good life on his pitches and is tough to hit. In a very short time, he’s worked his way into a key role in the Padres bullpen. Linebrink is the best reliever you’ve never heard of and could close for most teams in either league: Since the beginning of 2004, among relievers who have worked 140+ innings, only the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera has a lower ERA. Seanez destroys right-handers (.212/.274/.274). Hoffman isn’t the dominant closer he once was but still gets the job done. Second all-time in saves, the man who has entered to AC/DC’s “Hells Bells” since the Pads’ last playoff run in 1998 converted on all but 3 of his 46 save opportunities this season. Otsuka was Hoffman’s chief setup man in 2004 and for much of 2005 before running into some late-season trouble. Aki, as he is known around here, features a low-90s fastball and a slider that is often mistaken for a splitter because of its sharp downward movement. Aki’s command hasn’t been as strong this season as it was during his rookie campaign. Still, he has been nearly unhittable at home (36.2 IP, 1.23 ERA).

Isringhausen and Reyes have been absolutely lights out. Eldred is effective when healthy. I don’t know much about Thompson but his numbers are very solid. Looks like he could be the Cards’ version of Hensley. King is pretty much the definitive Tony LaRussa lefty specialist: Despite working just 40 innings, King led the team with 77 appearances. Righties hit .352/.432/.549 off him, while lefties were held to .247/.316/.365. Hello, Mr. Giles, I’ll be your server this evening. Tavarez and Flores are generic middle relievers. I don’t know if this is still the case, but it used to be that Tavarez could get a bit emotional at times. I’m guessing from his success that maybe he’s learned to channel that a bit. Flores gives LaRussa a second lefty, which is a little like giving Jimmy Page a second neck on his guitar: He doesn’t really need one, but as long as he has it, he’ll figure out a way to use it.

Advantage: Padres, but it’s closer than I was hoping.

Bottom Line

Unlike many pundits, I expect this to be a hard-fought battle. If the Padres are to win the series, they’ll need at least one starting pitcher other than Jake Peavy to step forward and take charge. Chances of that actually happening? I’m not real optimistic. Ultimately I think this series is going to come down to starting pitching depth, the hitting of Jim Edmonds and Albert Pujols, and the managerial experience of Tony LaRussa. I dearly hope I’m wrong, but I’ve got the Cardinals taking this thing in five games. I can’t even begin to tell you what I’d give to see the Padres make me eat my words.

IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (2 Oct 2005)

by Geoff Young on Oct 02, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (10-5, 4.51 ERA) vs Elmer Dessens (1-1, 3.65 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

Very strange to be writing this and knowing that the Padres have more games after today, the final game of the season. We’re not used to that around here.

This game is meaningless for everyone but the Dodgers fans who were out at Petco last night running smack. The real games of interest are the Cubs at the Astros (Greg Maddux vs Roy Oswalt; WGN, 11 a.m., PT) and the Phillies at the Nationals (Jon Leiber vs Hector Carrasco). If the Cubs and Phillies both win, the Astros and Phils play a one-game playoff. If the Astros win the wildcard, the Pads face St. Louis in the first round. If the Phils win it, the Pads square off against Atlanta. We’ll break everything down once we know for sure who the Padres are playing.

Other Stuff

There you go. Bring on the playoffs!

IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (1 Oct 2005)

by Geoff Young on Oct 01, 2005 (6) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (12-7, 5.86 ERA) vs Edwin Jackson (2-2, 7.23 ERA)

Sure, the games don’t mean much at this point, but it’s nice to see back-to-back good performances out of Brian Lawrence and Woody Williams. The Padres will need all the help they can get in the playoffs.

Park makes his pitch for a spot on the post-season roster tonight. Anything short of a no-no, and it’s a no-go.

Padres: Stay healthy, stay focused, keep your eyes on the prize. Remember that whoever you face in the playoffs will have a lot of explaining to do if you beat them. The world thinks you suck. You have nothing to lose. That makes you dangerous. We like dangerous. :-)

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IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (30 Sep 2005)

by Geoff Young on Sep 30, 2005 (4) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (8-12, 5.01 ERA) vs Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.63 ERA)

[I'm trying something a little different today. Chat about tonight's game here. And we also have a playoff roster thread going for folks who are more interested in looking forward.]

Padres finish up with three against the Dodgers. If the Friars can win two of those games, they’ll end up with a winning record. That would be nice, but what would be even better is to see Williams pitch a good game, like Brian Lawrence did Thursday night against the Giants.

I’m sitting this one out. I go to maybe 5-10 movies a year, but Friday is opening night for Serenity and I’ve been waiting the better part of two years for this one. Not quite as long as I waited for the Padres to return to the playoffs, but you get the idea.

Playoff Roster Decisions

by Geoff Young on Sep 30, 2005 (21) Comments

In Thursday’s comments, dprat pointed to John Maffei’s take on the playoff roster. Here is his “best-guess scenario” along with my reactions:

P: Jake Peavy, Adam Eaton, Woody Williams, Pedro Astacio, Brian Lawrence, Akinori Otsuka, Rudy Seanez, Scott Linebrink, Clay Hensley, Trevor Hoffman

I think he has this about right. I would set up the staff roughly as follows:

Games 1 and 4: Peavy
Games 2 and 5: Astacio
Game 3: Hensley (my guess is Bochy will go with the veteran Williams, although the skipper hasn’t ruled out the possibility of starting Hensley)

Hoffman gets the ninth, Linebrink the eighth, and Seanez the seventh. If Hensley doesn’t start, he could share setup duties with Seanez. That leaves Eaton, Lawrence, and Otsuka as long men.

With guys like Eaton and Lawrence available in the bullpen, Bochy can afford to go with just 10 pitchers on the staff. Either one of those guys could be summoned early in Game 3 if Hensley or Williams struggles out of the gate.

C: Ramon Hernandez, Miguel Olivo

Get Ramon rested and ready to go for the playoffs. Olivo is a capable backup, although he might not even get an at-bat.

INF: Khalil Greene, Mark Loretta, Joe Randa, Mark Sweeney, Sean Burroughs

Everybody is finally healthy at the same time. Sweeney gets the bulk of the time at 1B, with Nady possibly starting against Mark Mulder?

OF: Ryan Klesko, Brian Giles, Dave Roberts, Ben Johnson

Roberts is a gamer; despite the recent injuries, he’ll be good to go in center. Giles is a given in right. It will be interesting to see what Bochy does in left. Klesko is hitting .213/.330/.329 since the All-Star break. He’s not out there for his glove. Johnson is hitting just .229 on the year but 12 of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases. He also possesses the only legit arm among Padres outfielders and probably hasn’t been as well scouted by the Cardinals and Braves. I’d lean toward getting Johnson in the lineup as much as possible and hope for lightning in a bottle. The Padres will need to take some chances in the playoffs. This is a good place to take one.

UT: Eric Young, Robert Fick, Xavier Nady, Damian Jackson

No arguments here, although I don’t ever want to see anyone other than Greene at shortstop. Young is versatile, Fick is a good left-handed bat off the bench, and Nady has some right-handed pop but isn’t real well suited to a bench role.

Those are some of my thoughts. Other ideas?