Ducksnorts

So the Padres will play the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs. Let’s take a little look at this here series. For those of you joining us who don’t follow the Pads, welcome and I’ll see if I can help introduce this team to you. For those of you who hang out here all the time and know all the Enzos and Sixtos of Padres baseball, bear with me if I go into greater detail on some points than usual.

Disclaimers out of the way, here’s what we’ve got:

Schedule

Game 1: Tue., Oct. 4, @StL, Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter, 10 a.m. PT, ESPN
Game 2: Thu., Oct. 6, @StL, Pedro Astacio vs TBD, 10 a.m. PT, ESPN
Game 3: Sat., Oct. 8, @SD, everything else TBD
Game 4 (if needed): Sun., Oct. 9, @SD, Peavy vs TBD, everything else TBD
Game 5 (if needed): Mon., Oct. 10, @StL, everything else TBD

Position Players

Starters

Catcher

Pads: Ramon Hernandez, 369/.290/.322/.450 (AB/BA/OBP/SLG)
Cards: Yadier Molina, 385/.252/.295/.358

Hernandez missed all of August due to surgery on his left wrist. With a clean bill of health, his bat was one of the few the Padres were able to count on down the stretch, as he hit .319/.355/.522 after the All-Star break. Defensively, Hernandez calls a good game but is just okay at throwing out potential base stealers (25.7%) and doesn’t block the plate well.

On the flip side, Molina doesn’t hit much but he also completely shuts down the running game, having allowed only 14 stolen bases in 39 attempts this year. Padres don’t run much, so that shouldn’t be too much of a factor.

Advantage: Padres.

First Base

Pads: Mark Sweeney, 221/.294/.395/.466
Cards: Albert Pujols, 591/.330/.430/.609

Sweeney has 35 career homers in more than 1300 big-league at-bats; Pujols has 41 jacks in 2005 alone. Sweeney is a perennial fan favorite; Pujols is a perennial MVP candidate. Sweeney is a future ex-big-leaguer; Pujols is a future Hall of Famer.

Advantage: C’mon, were you even paying attention?

Second Base

Pads: Mark Loretta, 404/.280/.360/.347
Cards: Mark Grudzielanek, 528/.294/.334/.407

Last year Loretta was among the elite at his position in the big leagues. This year he has been hurt and his power has all but disappeared. Loretta can get on base and move runners around, but he’s no longer an offensive force. Defensively, his range factor (4.59) and zone rating (.818) are not up to par with his first two seasons with the Padres. Loretta still has the good hands and turns the double play well.

Grudzielanek did what he usually does ― hack his way to a slightly above-average offensive season ― and his defensive numbers this year are terrific (range factor 5.36, zone rating .861). He also was involved in more double plays (108) than any other second sacker in all of baseball.

Advantage: It kills me to say this because if he’s healthy, I take Loretta, but I have to give it to the Cardinals.

Third Base

Pads: Joe Randa, 555/.276/.335/.452
Cards: Abraham Nunez, 421/.285/.343/.361

Randa was having a career year with the Reds (.289/.356/.491) before coming to San Diego in a deadline deal. Since joining the Padres, Randa has reverted to version 2001, hitting just .256/.303/.395 in 58 games. He also is not the defender that erstwhile starter Sean Burroughs was, being fairly reliable but showing limited range (range factor 2.32, zone rating .802).

For the Cardinals, there is no Scott Rolen, which means most of the time has gone to utility player Nunez. The Cards lose a lot offensively, but Nunez has been solid in the field (range factor 3.20, zone rating .791). Nunez’ OPS after the All-Star break (664) is nearly 100 points lower than it was before the break (753).

Advantage: Padres, but not by much.

Shortstop

Pads: Khalil Greene, 436/.250/.296/.431
Cards: David Eckstein, 630/.294/.363/.395

Greene missed 41 games this year due to injury and didn’t build on his fine rookie campaign the way many folks expected. He can be pitched to (witness the low OBP), but he also possesses power uncommon in a shortstop (among those with 450+ PA, only Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Tejada, Bill Hall, Felipe Lopez, and Michael Young had a higher ISO than Greene’s .181). On defense, Greene positions himself well, has a strong arm, and makes highlight reel plays. However, his metrics aren’t great (range factor 4.14, zone rating .859).

Eckstein gets on base, hustles, and is a scrappy player. He lacks the arm for short but he doesn’t let that keep him from playing the position. Like the rest of the St. Louis infield, Eckstein has good defensive numbers (range factor 5.11, zone rating .833, 123 double plays ― second in the majors only to Pittsburgh’s Jack Wilson).

Advantage: Cardinals, but not by much.

Left Field

Pads: Ryan Klesko, 443/.248/.358/.418
Cards: Reggie Sanders, 295/.271/.340/.546

Klesko came to the Padres in a December 1999 trade from the Atlanta Braves that involved Sanders. Klesko led the club with 18 homers, the first time the Padres had failed to produce a single 20-homer guy in a non-strike year since 1988, When Carmelo Martinez topped out at 18 (that team, incidentally, finished the season 82-79). Klesko brings nothing to the table defensively and was MIA with the bat after the All-Star break (.210/.330/.325).

Sanders missed much of the season due to injury but still managed to knock 21 home runs despite just 295 at-bats. Sanders actually has a lower range factor and zone rating than Klesko. I have a pet theory that a park factor is at work here. Outfielders who call Petco Park home have numbers that make them look better than they are, and infielders experience the opposite effect. That’s a theory of mine, anyway.

Advantage: Cardinals.

Center Field

Pads: Dave Roberts, 411/.275/.356/.428
Cards: Jim Edmonds, 467/.263/.385/.533

Roberts had the best OPS of his career in 2005; Edmonds had the worst of his since 1999, and still more than 130 points separates the two of them. Roberts exceeded all expectations offensively but was a bit overmatched as an everyday center fielder. Edmonds is one of the best of his generation at the position.

Advantage: This might actually be more of a mismatch than at first base.

Right Field

Pads: Brian Giles, 545/.301/.423/.483
Cards: Larry Walker, 315/.289/.384/.502

Giles led the bigs with 119 walks and generally is the man around whom the Padres offense revolves. He also is a capable right fielder who plays the difficult corner at Petco with grace. Like most of the other San Diego outfielders, he doesn’t have a strong throwing arm. Unlike some of the others, however, he almost always knows what to do with it. He positions himself well, has a quick release, and generally throws to the right place. Giles plays hard and he plays smart.

Walker, like Sanders, spent much of 2005 hurt. He finished strong, hitting .330/.396/.543 after the All-Star break. I haven’t seen Walker play this year so I don’t know what his defense is like. He used to be an outstanding right fielder, with great instincts and a great arm, but that was many years ago. I would imagine that injuries have taken their toll on his defensive skills. Walker is, in many ways, similar to Giles ― “hard” and “smart” are two good words to describe Walker’s style of play as well.

Advantage: Padres.

Bench

Pads: Xavier Nady (.259/.320/.438), Sean Burroughs (.250/.319/.296), Damian Jackson (.255/.335/.342), Robert Fick (.265/.340/.365), Eric Young (.275/.356/.380), Miguel Olivo (.217/.246/.367), Ben Johnson (.213/.310/.467)
Cards: So Taguchi (.288/.322/.412), John Mabry (.240/.295/.407), John Rodriguez (.295/.382/.436), Hector Luna (.285/.344/.409), Einar Diaz (.208/.248/.277), Scott Seabol (.219/.272/.295)

For the Pads, Nady is limited mainly to first base, left field, and right field. He can play other positions but he won’t. Jackson is fast and can play anywhere on the infield or outfield, but has no arm. Fick can do about what Nady does, although he’ll also get behind the dish in a pinch. Young is a slightly better version of Jackson. Olivo hit .298/.336/.482 in 36 games with the Padres and provided a real shot in the arm when Hernandez was on the DL. Johnson has serious power from the right side and was a teammate of Pujols’ in the low minor leagues. He also has the best outfield arm. Burroughs is a slap-hitting lefty who is limited defensively to third base.

I’m guessing at the Cardinals’ bench. Looks like Rodriguez and Luna are the best of the lot. Mabry has been around a while and is comparable to Fick. Diaz is your standard-issue backup catcher.

Advantage: Looks pretty even to me. Maybe a slight advantage to the Padres, but probably not enough to make a difference.

Pitchers

Rotation

Pads: Jake Peavy (203.0 IP, 2.88 ERA, .217/.271/.363 BA/OBP/SLG), Pedro Astacio (126.2, 4.69, .271/.323/.447), Adam Eaton (128.2, 4.27, .275/.335/.438), Brian Lawrence (195.2, 4.83, .273/.329/.420), Woody Williams (159.2, 4.85, .275/.330/.464)
Cards: Chris Carpenter (241.2, 2.83, .231/.273/.351), Jeff Suppan (194.1, 3.57, .275/.335/.428), Mark Mulder (205.0, 3.64, .273/.339/.410), Matt Morris (189.2, 3.94, .276/.315/.426), Jason Marquis (207.0, 4.13, .262/.324/.427)

Over the past two seasons, Peavy is the best pitcher on the planet not named Roger Clemens. Peavy won the NL ERA title in 2004 and he won the NL strikeout title this year. Few people outside of San Diego seem to know who he is, but I’ll put him up against anyone. Astacio’s overall numbers are fairly pedestrian, but in 10 starts with the Pads, he has a tidy 3.17 ERA. There’s a good chance he’ll turn into a pumpkin before too long, but then again, he could be to this club what Sterling Hitchcock was to the 1998 team. Eaton has frontline stuff, but injuries and inconsistency have kept him from realizing his potential. His ERA is well over 6.00 since the All-Star break. Lawrence and Williams have gotten hit pretty hard this year. Williams probably gets the nod as the #4 starter due to his previous playoff experience. If Lawrence works out of the bullpen, maybe the Padres can limit his exposure to left-handed batters, who hit .300/.366/.475 off him this year.

Carpenter probably wins the 2005 NL Cy Young Award, and deservedly so. He had a tremendous season by any standards. To do it after all he’s been through in his career is remarkable. As for those other four starters, there’s not a lot separating them. Suppan is dependable, but his ERA seems a bit lower than it should be. His opponent batting numbers aren’t appreciably different from those of Astacio, Eaton, and Lawrence. Ditto Mulder. And the others have slightly higher ERAs, but nothing really stands out about any of them. Actually, that’s not true. What stands out about this staff is that these five guys made all but two of the Cardinals’ starts this year. That kind of continuity is hard to find.

Advantage: Cardinals, but it’s closer than you might think.

Bullpen

Pads: Clay Hensley (47.2, 1.70, .195/.266/.237), Scott Linebrink (73.2, 1.83, .209/.273/.312), Rudy Seanez (60.1, 2.69, .222/.297/.335), Trevor Hoffman (57.2, 2.97, .235/.273/.344), Akinori Otsuka (62.2, 3.59, .234/.336/.328)
Cards: Jason Isringhausen (59.0, 2.14, .203/.295/.292), Al Reyes (62.2, 2.15, .177/.261/.288), Cal Eldred (37.0, 2.19, .259/.353/.356), Brad Thompson (55.0, 2.95, .227/.293/.345), Ray King (40.0, 3.38, .293/.367/.446), Julian Tavarez (65.2, 3.43, .279/.347/.414), Randy Flores (41.2, 3.46, .240/.306/.390)

Hensley was stolen from the Giants in 2003 in a trade involving reliever Matt Herges. Hensley doesn’t throw hard but has good life on his pitches and is tough to hit. In a very short time, he’s worked his way into a key role in the Padres bullpen. Linebrink is the best reliever you’ve never heard of and could close for most teams in either league: Since the beginning of 2004, among relievers who have worked 140+ innings, only the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera has a lower ERA. Seanez destroys right-handers (.212/.274/.274). Hoffman isn’t the dominant closer he once was but still gets the job done. Second all-time in saves, the man who has entered to AC/DC’s “Hells Bells” since the Pads’ last playoff run in 1998 converted on all but 3 of his 46 save opportunities this season. Otsuka was Hoffman’s chief setup man in 2004 and for much of 2005 before running into some late-season trouble. Aki, as he is known around here, features a low-90s fastball and a slider that is often mistaken for a splitter because of its sharp downward movement. Aki’s command hasn’t been as strong this season as it was during his rookie campaign. Still, he has been nearly unhittable at home (36.2 IP, 1.23 ERA).

Isringhausen and Reyes have been absolutely lights out. Eldred is effective when healthy. I don’t know much about Thompson but his numbers are very solid. Looks like he could be the Cards’ version of Hensley. King is pretty much the definitive Tony LaRussa lefty specialist: Despite working just 40 innings, King led the team with 77 appearances. Righties hit .352/.432/.549 off him, while lefties were held to .247/.316/.365. Hello, Mr. Giles, I’ll be your server this evening. Tavarez and Flores are generic middle relievers. I don’t know if this is still the case, but it used to be that Tavarez could get a bit emotional at times. I’m guessing from his success that maybe he’s learned to channel that a bit. Flores gives LaRussa a second lefty, which is a little like giving Jimmy Page a second neck on his guitar: He doesn’t really need one, but as long as he has it, he’ll figure out a way to use it.

Advantage: Padres, but it’s closer than I was hoping.

Bottom Line

Unlike many pundits, I expect this to be a hard-fought battle. If the Padres are to win the series, they’ll need at least one starting pitcher other than Jake Peavy to step forward and take charge. Chances of that actually happening? I’m not real optimistic. Ultimately I think this series is going to come down to starting pitching depth, the hitting of Jim Edmonds and Albert Pujols, and the managerial experience of Tony LaRussa. I dearly hope I’m wrong, but I’ve got the Cardinals taking this thing in five games. I can’t even begin to tell you what I’d give to see the Padres make me eat my words.

Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.

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