Mailbag: Special Vinny Edition

by Geoff Young on Nov 11, 2005 (12) Comments

The Adam Eaton to Texas rumors continue to float around but as yet, nothing has actually happened. Meantime, we’ve gotten some real good responses on the Brian Lawrence – Vinny Castilla trade so I thought I’d run a few letters, comments, and the like. Enjoy…

From the venerable and ubiquitous Anonymous:

I heard from a reliable (and completely trusted) source that the Padres were minutes away from releasing B-Law last year (right before Pedro Astacio went on the DL — when that happened, they kept B-Law on board).

B-Law was NOT a part of San Diego’s pitching plans. And Burroughs was playing his way out of the Padres’ third base plans.

Vinny hit .253/.319/.403 in Washington last year with 43 BB & 82 SO and 36 2B and 12 HR…

RFK and Petco both depress home runs at a high rate. But RFK seems (I haven’t looked at raw data) to be built in such a way to depress righties and lefties equally. Petco, on the the other hand, depresses power to right field much more than left.

You said, “Castilla is an older, cheaper version of Phil Nevin.”

I disagree. While Castilla isn’t the defensive whiz he once was, he’s not the butcher Nevin was at third base; furthermore Nevin’s power was to right-field power-ally, Castilla is a dead-pull hitter.

Castilla’s career numbers are .278/.324/.483.

I bet he’ll hit something along the lines of .265-.270/.315-.330/.440 with 25-30 doubles and 15-20 home runs…

There’s another reason why I like the deal… In a weak free agent market, signing [Joe] Randa might have required a multi-year deal. We don’t want to tie up infield positions with [Josh] Barfield on the way. We could attempt to re-sign [Mark] Loretta (moving him to third base after this season — though that’s not as likely)…

Furthermore, I’ve heard we saved $1.5M on the deal. [Ed.: From what I can gather, the cash the Pads sent to Washington makes the money issue pretty much a wash.]

This season we have roughly $20M coming off the books ([Brian] Giles, [Trevor] Hoffman, [Ramon] Hernandez — assuming we don’t re-sign any of them). And next year we rid ourselves of [Ryan] Klesko and [Chan Ho] Park’s contracts (another $22-24M)…

This year will be interesting, but ’07 should be exciting.

Thanks for writing. If that’s true about Lawrence, then it sounds like the Padres would’ve been happy to get anything for him. With kids like Clay Hensley and Tim Stauffer ready for a spot in the rotation, and Cesar Carrillo not far behind, it makes sense that Lawrence wouldn’t have been part of the long-term plan. And if moving Lawrence helps open up an opportunity for the youngsters (as opposed to, say, the return of David Wells), I can see the logic in that.

As for Castilla, I have concerns. Beyond Vinny’s age and health, fewer home runs were hit by right-handed batters in Petco Park than at any other park in baseball. Granted, RFK wasn’t too far off, but I don’t see Petco helping his situation much, if at all, in terms of power production.

On the other hand (and as long as we’re looking for silver linings), your point that the presence of Castilla will remove any temptation the Padres may have had to hand Randa a long-term deal is a good one.

It sure looks to me as though the Padres are making themselves as lean as possible now to position themselves well for 2007. That may not bring comfort to everyone, but with the division as weak as it is, the Padres could still be competitive next year despite not fielding a great team; and as you say, ’07 should be exciting.

From the Comments

Pat, in the comments to our initial trade report, pointed out a possible reason for Petco’s apparent suppression of homers to righties in 2005:

I think part of that lack of right-handed power at Petco was attributable to who the Padres right-handed batters were last season… I have [a] hunch that if you put out some right handers with power in the Padres lineup for a whole season (names like [Khalil] Greene, [Xavier] Nady and [Ben] Johnson come to mind), you might see a less extreme figure for Petco.

Chris from Captiol Punishment also checks in:

RFK is indeed deeper than the posted dimensions. It turns out that it’s about 390′ to the power alleys.

Vinny wasn’t really an extreme pull hitter. A lot of his power was from alley to alley, and he hit a lot of towering flyball outs that were run down in the gaps. Your park won’t be much of a help there.

I’m not sure whether he was unable to pull the ball because of injury or because his bat was getting slow. If you look at his last month or two, he hit decently. It’s just that his May-July was horrible.

You’ll quickly get frustrated watching him hack at the first pitch, but he seems like a nice guy, and he gets just enough big hits at key times to make you like the guy — even if you know he’s nothing special.

According to Padres.com, Petco is 387′ to right-center and 367′ to left-center. [As an aside, it is just unbelievable to me that the powers-that-be couldn't figure out the correct dimensions at RFK.] If most of Castilla’s power is to left-center, and he’s moving to a park where that area is 20-25′ closer to home plate, then maybe, just maybe, he can do something. I remain skeptical, but I’m willing to convert. :-)

The Fathers responds to this with a few thoughts of his own:

Chris… the hit charts for RFK showed that Vinny hit 6 of his 8 homers at or to the left of LCF (“380″), plus 14 of 21 doubles. In terms of his deep fly outs, it looks like a lot were hit to CF, as you indicate.

Just by eyeballing it, if some of his RFK doubles were wall balls, they could have been homers at the shorter LF-LCF gap at Petco. I realize that Petco goes to 402′ in deep LCF, but that is closer to CF than the straight-line gap, so Vinny might have lost an HR there.

For now, I’ll stick by my position that Petco will help Vinny more than RFK, or maybe I should say “hurt less”. :)

And I think the phrase “hurt less” probably sums it up as well as I could, so we’ll just stop there.

Other Reaction

  • Mark Normandin breaks down the trade at Beyond the Boxscore. I’m kinda old school when it comes to my sabermetrics (old school sabermetrics, LOL), but the most alarming aspect of his analysis to me is the chart showing just how far Sean Burroughs has fallen in a very short period of time. He is still just 25 years old and capable of putting together a Bill Mueller type career if things “click” for him. It kills me that it won’t happen in San Diego. I sure hope Burroughs is able to get back on the right track somewhere and make a name for himself beyond “that Little League pitcher.”
  • Padres, Nationals kick off the Hot Stove action (Statistically Speaking). Benjamin Kabak’s analysis includes this gem: “So the ever-active [Jim] Bowden lands another player who may or may not turn out to be the next John Patterson…” Quick show of hands: Who here thinks Lawrence has even a chance to become the next Patterson? Right, I thought so.

Okay, enough of that. We’ll see if anything comes of the Eaton talk this weekend. And on Monday, assuming we don’t have another trade to talk about, we’ll get back to our review of the positions with, interestingly enough, a look at third base. Until then, have a great weekend!

Notes from the AFL

by Geoff Young on Nov 09, 2005 (35) Comments

I had planned to take copious notes during my trip to the AFL. Unfortunately, I spent most of the time hopped up on flu medicine and found it hard to concentrate. But I am pretty good at remembering esoterica so I think we should be okay.

With the caveat that I saw most of these guys just once, here are some players who made an impression:

  • Oakland’s Daric Barton has a great approach at the plate. Reminds me a little of Brian Giles in the way he spits on anything that misses even by just a little. First at-bat I saw of his, he fell behind 0-2, then started taking pitches and fouling them off before eventually being retired. One scout at the symposium mentioned that Barton tends to hit the ball with a lot of topspin so the homers aren’t likely to come. Good looking hitter, though. Stiff at first base, probably more of a DH type.
  • The Padres’ Mike Johnson had some excellent at-bats the game I saw him. He put one out to center, and knocked another off the wall in the deepest part of the park. Yes, he’s old. No, he’s probably not a future big-league regular. But the guy can hit. I also saw southpaw Rusty Tucker work an inning, but it wasn’t enough to get a good feel for where he’s at these days. George Kottaras hit seeds as usual.

    George Kottaras waits for his pitch

  • The Yankees’ Eric Duncan is a big kid with a big swing. He looked okay but not as good as I’d expected. Maybe I was unduly influenced by what a scout said, but the ball didn’t seem to fly off his bat. Baseball America’s Jack Magruder reports on Duncan’s progress in the AFL.
    Rusty Tucker delivers to Eric Duncan
  • After seeing Florida’s Reggie Abercrombie, I understand now why scouts go nuts over him. The kid is big, strong, and very fast. I’m sure they look at him and think Mike Cameron. Watching him round the bases on a stand-up triple was something special. But obviously he’s got a lot of holes in his game.
  • The Mets’ Lastings Milledge probably was the guy who impressed me most out in Arizona. I expected the athleticism and speed. I did not expect him to hit everything so hard. The ball really jumps off his bat. Even his foul balls made noise. He hit a shot to left that hooked foul, but several of us were a little startled to see how far away from home plate it landed. I think we weren’t looking for him to drive the ball like that on such a consistent basis. Baseball America’s Jack Magruder has more on Milledge’s stint in the AFL.
  • Pittsburgh’s Brad Eldred is another big kid with a big swing. He will hit a mistake a long way.
  • Anaheim’s Jered Weaver looks a lot like his older brother, Jeff. Like his brother, Jered features a delivery that will cause problems for right-handers but allow lefties to get a good look at his stuff, which isn’t as good as Jeff’s. Weaver looked okay and he’s certainly a future big-leaguer, but I’m not losing any sleep over the Padres not drafting him. Cesar Carrillo looks better to me. Baseball America’s Chris Kline takes a closer look at Weaver.
  • Anaheim’s Kendry Morales is a big, strong kid with a nice swing. He wasn’t as disciplined as I’d expected, often taking defensive swings when he was ahead in the count. He sure looks like he should be able to mash, though, so maybe I caught him on a bad day.
  • Anaheim’s Brandon Wood broke Tagg Bozied’s AFL homer record. We saw him tie it. He has tremendous power and plays a passable shortstop. Most of the experts I talked to at the symposium said he, and not Stephen Drew, was the class of the AFL. They also expected him to move up the organizational ladder very quickly. Baseball America’s Jack Magruder offers his thoughts on Wood.
  • I caught my first glimpse of the Padres’ Corey Smith. He’s very thick, built like a fire hydrant. Smith knocked a homer when I saw him and looks like he has the strength to hit it out anywhere. He was at DH so I have no idea how well he can handle the hot corner. Looks like he should be able to make it at least as a right-handed bat off someone’s bench.
  • The Cubs’ Eric Patterson surprised me. He’s built along the lines of his brother, Corey, but has a more refined approach at the plate than I’d expected. Patterson laid off some pretty tough pitches and seemed to be willing to use the entire field. He didn’t overwhelm me, but the kid looks like he can play a little.

Also, the new stadium in Surprise is beautiful. Reminds me a little of the new park in Stockton, which is like a smaller version of Sacramento’s Raley Field. Some folks complain about cookie cutter ballparks, but I say if this is the new cookie, keep cutting.

Stadium at Surprise, Arizona

On Saturday we trekked down to Tucson for the UCLA-Arizona football game. I hadn’t been to a Division I football game in over 20 years. Judging from the outcome, I doubt the Bruins want me ever attending again. Anyway, here’s a shot of the crowd emptying onto the field after the home team won, 52-14.

University of Arizona students pour onto the field after 52-14 victory over UCLA

Other Stuff

That’s all for now. We’ll have more trade reaction on Friday, then a review of third base next week.

More Castilla Reaction

by Geoff Young on Nov 07, 2005 (16) Comments

I’m still recovering from the trip out to Arizona, but here’s a hodgepodge of reaction from various sources. Thanks again to my wife for getting the initial post out in a timely manner while I was away.

Padres Blogs

Local MSM

Nats Blogs

National Media

Projections for Castilla

  • BTF’s ZiPS: .230/.282/.382, 14 HR
  • Bill James Handbook: .249/.305/.381, 15 HR

ZiPS is for Petco Park, BJH is for RFK Stadium. Speaing of which, there are some who believe Petco will help Castilla. I’m not so sure:

HR by RHB in NL Parks, 2005

Cin: 115
Hou: 114
Mil: 113
Col: 108
ChN: 105
StL: 104
Ari: 88
Phi: 87
SF: 87
Atl: 79
LA: 78
Pit: 76
NYN: 74
Fla: 53
Was: 53
SD: 44

So, that’s a little more for you. We’re not done talking about this ― I’ve gotten quite a bit of e-mail from folks who have opinions on the deal. We’ll get to those later in the week, along with a report from the AFL.

Padres Add Statue to Collection

by Geoff Young on Nov 04, 2005 (23) Comments

Let me get this out of the way: I hate the idea of watching Vinny Castilla play third base for the Padres. A liability in the field and at the plate, Castilla is an older, cheaper version of Phil Nevin.

That said, I understand (but don’t defend) why the Padres made the trade. First, moving Brian Lawrence clears salary for beyond 2006. With Ryan Klesko and Chan Ho Park coming off the books after next season, assuming the Padres don’t make any bad signings this winter, they increase their flexibility heading into 2007.

[Update 11/6: Vinay points out in the comments that:

Lawrence's last guaranteed year is '06; the team has an option on him for '07 ($4.7M, IIRC). Unloading Lawrence doesn't help the team from a financial or flexibility standpoint in '07. In fact, I'd say it hurts their flexibility for '07; if they kept Lawrence, they'd have the option of paying him the $4+M for one season, or cut him loose.

Apologies for getting the details of his contract wrong. I was at a ballgame in Surprise, Arizona, and phoned this post in to my wife, who actually entered it into the computer for me. I didn't have access to as many resources as I would have liked but I thought it was important to at least say something. Thanks to Vinay for setting the record straight and making us all feel even better. ;-) ]

Second, Castilla is a hero in his native Mexico, the border of which lies about a half hour drive south of Petco Park. He may be well past his prime, but he is still marketable.

Again, I’m not defending the deal. As a fan, I don’t like it. But I can understand what the Padres are thinking.

I just wish they would think of something better.

DePo, Theo, Hoffo, and Zeppo

by Geoff Young on Nov 02, 2005 (31) Comments

First off, if you haven’t checked out our look back at second base in 2005 be sure to do so. We’re trying to figure out possible comps for Josh Barfield, and right now our best guess is Toronto’s Orlando Hudson.

Okay, on to the meaty stuff.

Dodgers Fire Paul DePodesta

Yeah, I’m on top of this one. Hey, if it’s less than a week, it’s still news, right? Anyway, my general thoughts are that, aside from injuries, there wasn’t a lot different between the 2004 playoff team and last year’s version.

The Brad Penny and Milton Bradley acquisitions were good moves, and for the most part DePodesta had his team headed in the right direction. From here it looks like the Dodgers panicked and didn’t let him finish what he’d started.

Oh well, their loss. As a Padres fan, I’m happy enough he’s out of the division. (My wife asks if there’s any chance DePodesta could come to San Diego. Honestly? I have no idea, but it’s an interesting question.)

Everybody’s got an opinion on this: Some of the more relevant are at Dodger Thoughts, 6-4-2, Baseball Analysts, Management by Baseball, and, perhaps most amusingly, Tommy Lasorda’s World.

Theo Epstein Resigns as Red Sox GM

I don’t know where to start. You know if it’s the Red Sox, it’s going to be covered absolutely everywhere. Try Google. Okay, I did and it takes me to Baseball Musings. Among other things, David Pinto expects the Red Sox to be contacting DePodesta. Sure, that makes sense.

In yesterday’s comments, Nick G. pointed to an article at Boston.com that mentions Kevin Towers as a possible successor to Epstein. I suppose I can see that, although getting Towers to move back east might be a tricky endeavor.

What I’m having trouble with is the “possibility of Alderson wooing Epstein to San Diego if Towers winds up with the Red Sox.” If there’s one thing we know about Alderson it’s that he’s big on saving money. If the Red Sox, with their deep pockets, weren’t willing to pony up for Epstein’s services, what makes anyone think the Padres will be?

What I’m about to say might sound like sacrilege to some, but GMs, like players, can be replaced. I don’t doubt that Epstein is a good GM, but if Towers were to leave San Diego, how many more wins would Epstein net the Padres than, say, David Forst? And would the difference in wins be justified by the difference in salaries?

We employ this line of thinking constantly when evaluating players. It’s why we rip the signing of guys like Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin. Sure, they’re good enough players (or at least they were), but how much value do they really add compared to other, cheaper options?

Conversely, we applaud locking up Jake Peavy to a long-term deal at a relatively low price because, by the end of the contract, who other than their accountants will be able to tell the difference between Peavy and Ben Sheets?

It stands to reason that GMs should be evaluated the same way. Again, none of this is to take anything away from Epstein or what he has accomplished. But he won a World Series in a huge market. Why would he take presumably less money to come back to San Diego? You might as well pencil Manny Ramirez in as the Padres’ cleanup hitter, because it ain’t gonna happen.

It is flattering, though, to know that some folks think it might be a possibility. See, San Diego is moving up in the world!

Trevor Hoffman

Thanks to the guys at Gaslamp Ball for pointing us to an article in Tuesday’s U-T stating that the Padres and Hoffman are far apart. Reportedly the Hoffman camp is seeking — brace yourself — between $25 and $27M over 3 years.

Let me say first that I adore Hoffman, and I love what he has done for both the franchise and the city. As Dex at Gaslamp Ball notes, the idea of the Padres without Trevor Time is hard to imagine.

That said, why in the world would a team with a presumed budget of $70-75M spend 11-13% of it on 38-year-old pitcher who worked just under 4% of the club’s innings last year? Maybe it’s me, but this doesn’t seem like the best investment.

Seriously, I don’t know of too many guys who bring more positive intangibles to a ballclub than Hoffman, but at the end of the day, it’s about production. And to commit $8-9M a year for a pitcher who throws 60 innings a season and who will be 40 at the end of the contract is, pardon my French, absolutely insane.

I love Hoffman, and I hope both sides are just posturing. Nothing would make me happier than to see him return at a reasonable (relative to the market) price and continue his pursuit of Lee Smith’s career save mark in a Padres uni. But if it’s not going to happen, I’m okay with having Scott Linebrink work the ninth.

As for Zeppo, that’s a story for another day. And another blog. Told by someone else.

Reminder: I’ll be in Arizona for the AFL starting Thursday and on through the weekend, so talk amongst yourselves. Pix and words early next week.

2005 in Review – Second Base

by Geoff Young on Oct 31, 2005 (14) Comments

The next stop in our review of the 2005 season is second base. As with most other positions for the Padres, due to injuries, the level of play wasn’t quite what was expected and the future is uncertain.

[Previous entries in this series: catcher | first base]

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO SEC RC/27
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.
Padres second basemen .262 .334 .337 .086 .075 .178 3.98
MLB rank 20 13 29 12 30 25 26

 

Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.
Padres second basemen .987 4.61
MLB average .981 4.98

Mark Loretta saw the bulk of the playing time at second base, with Damian Jackson filling in when Loretta landed on the DL. Geoff Blum, Eric Young, Manny Alexander, and Jesse Garcia also logged innings at the position. We’ll talk about Blum in our third base discussion, while Young will be covered with the center fielders. Alexander and Garcia? I’ve already said too much.

Mark Loretta

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
2004 .335 .391 .495 .082 .160 .313 7.28 136
2005 .280 .360 .347 .097 .067 .177 4.24 96

 

Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF DP/9
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.
Loretta .987 4.57 .603
MLB average .981 4.98 .680

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

A late bloomer, Loretta is 33 years old and shouldn’t be expected to post an OPS near 900 again. But even if he settles back into his 2003 level, he’s a premium talent at a premium position. With his consistent approach at the plate and ability to use the entire field, Loretta will continue to be a key part of the Padres offense.

Positives

  • Good line drive hitter who uses entire field.
  • Very sure hands at second base.

Negatives

  • Power disappeared, never got into a groove; injuries may have played a role, but it’s also possible he is entering the decline phase of his career.
  • Defense appears to be slipping a bit; range factor fell from 4.97 in 2004 to 4.57 last season (also turned fewer double plays per 9 innings – .679 in 2004 vs .603 in 2005).

Outlook

If Loretta is healthy, he can be productive, although probably not at 2003-2004 levels. With Sean Burroughs and Joe Randa both eligible for free agency, a thin market at third base, and Josh Barfield coming off a strong season at Triple-A, one option might be to move Loretta and his diminishing range to the hot corner. Loretta doesn’t have the power normally associated with the position, but neither did Burroughs or Randa, and if he’s healthy, he should provide decent production at third.

Damian Jackson

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
2004 .100 .206 .267 .118 .167 1.000 2.00 21
2005 .255 .335 .342 .096 .087 .200 3.89 87

 

Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF DP/9
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.
Jackson .993 4.96 .713
MLB average .981 4.98 .680

Note that Jackson had only 30 big-league at-bats in 2004, so take those numbers with the appropriate buckets of salt.

Expectations

None.

Positives

  • Versatile, able to play multiple positions.
  • Strong defensively at second base and in center field.
  • Draws some walks, still runs reasonably well.

Negatives

  • Weak throwing arm limits his usefulness on the left side of the infield.
  • Swing gets a bit long for a guy with so little power; streaky hitter.

Outlook

Signed a 1-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Expect more of the same.

Josh Barfield

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H
Stats courtesy of Baseball America and Baseball Cube.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
2004 (Double-A Mobile) .248 .313 .417 .083 .169 .380
2005 (Triple-A Portland) .310 .370 .450 .090 .140 .256

This is just for grins. Different levels, different hitting environments. Apples, oranges. I don’t have Major League Equivalencies handy for Barfield, so this will have to do. Like I said, just for grins.

Barfield turns 23 in December and provides some pretty serious pop from the second base position. He also plays better defense than he often gets credit for. Manager Bruce Bochy’s reluctance to hand over the reins to youngsters notwithstanding, Barfield wouldn’t be a bad option at second base for the big club in 2006.

Blogs Added

by Geoff Young on Oct 30, 2005 (1) Comments

Just added a couple new blogs to the ol’ blogroll:

  • Named after the Western Metal Supply Co. building that lies beyond the left field fence at Petco Park, metalsupply is mostly a Padres blog, although Mike also delves into other sports as well. He’s got a nice take on the Dodgers’ firing of Paul DePodesta.
  • Roto Authority covers baseball from a fantasy perspective (duh). There’s a cool look at the top 50 free agents of this off-season. Good food for thought here.

That’s enough for a Sunday morning. Be sure to check these fine blogs out when you have a chance and tell ‘em Ducksnorts sent you. :-)

The GM Remains the Same

by Geoff Young on Oct 28, 2005 (6) Comments

Looks like Kevin Towers will remain a Padre (thanks to Nick G. for tipping me off in Wednesday’s comments). The Diamondbacks are expected to name Red Sox Assistant GM Josh Byrnes as their new GM today.

Towers is quoted in the U-T as saying, “The perception that Sandy and I can’t co-exist is totally false. Our working relationship has been very good.”

Towers, though obviously not without his faults (who is?), has done a lot of good for this organization. I’m glad to see him stay.

Other Stuff

  • Padres lose their first two free agents. Minor-league catcher Nick Trzesniak, thought to be in the running for the backup job in 2006, has signed with the Rangers. Utility man Damian Jackson has signed with the Nationals.
  • Seanez to become a free agent (Padres.com). Rudy Seanez quietly put together a brilliant season for the Padres this year. I hope they can bring him back for an encore.
  • Profiler Ritterpusch sent packing (Orioles Warehouse). Apparently the O’s had a guy who did psychological testing on players, and he was quite passionate about it. I wonder how many teams do this sort of thing and to what degree.
  • Grid game. I’ve been addicted to this for a while (thanks to a reader who shall remain nameless unless he chooses to reveal himself), now it’s your turn. My high score is 3424.

That’s all for now. I’m taking the weekend off. We’ll get back on track Monday with our review of the second base position. Guaranteed to be more fun than a paper cut to the tongue!

Congratulations, White Sox!

by Geoff Young on Oct 26, 2005 (8) Comments

They did it. A mere 88 years after their last world championship, the Chicago White Sox are on top once again. Congratulations to the Pale Hose and their fans!

World Series IGD: White Sox @ Astros, Game 4

by Geoff Young on Oct 26, 2005 (27) Comments

first pitch: 5:00 p.m., PT
television: Fox
matchup: Freddy Garcia (14-8, 3.87 ERA) vs Brandon Backe (10-8, 4.76 ERA)

We said Game 3 would be close, and it was. But in the end, it came down to the Astros’ inability to cash in on 11 12 walks and former Padre Geoff Blum homering in the 14th inning in his first World Series at-bat.

The Astros now find themselves on the brink of elimination, to regurgitate an overused phrase, and they’ll need the performance of a lifetime from Brandon Backe to keep the series and their championship hopes alive. The pitching matchup in Wednesday night’s game looks like a mismatch, but Houston fans can take some comfort in knowing that Backe has done his best work this year at home. The flip side, unfortunately, is that Freddy Garcia has pitched very well on the road in 2005.

I hope the Astros are able to extend the White Sox a little bit. This has been a fun series and I’m not quite ready for the season to end. If Blum and Scott Podsednik can be heroes for the Pale Hose, then why not someone unexpected from the other side? I’ll go with Orlando Palmeiro. Yep, he’s going to win it for the home club in Game 4. I don’t know how, but he’ll find a way.