Playoff IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (6 Oct 2005)
Thu, Oct 6, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 10:05 a.m., PT
television: ESPN2
matchup: Pedro Astacio vs Mark Mulder
preview: Yahoo!
Whatever else folks might say about the Padres, nobody can accuse them of quitting on themselves or their fans. As they have done all year, the Padres on Tuesday battled back after finding themselves in a precarious situation. They almost stole a victory despite falling behind 8-0 early and losing ace Jake Peavy to a fractured rib.
No, they didn’t win. But neither did they quit.
Condescension or Comprehension?
You will hear a lot of experts speak in condescending tones about the Padres because of their regular season record, the quality of play in the NL West, and whatever reason happens to be convenient. That shouldn’t be too surprising: condescension requires a good deal less effort than any genuine attempt at comprehension. It is much easier to dismiss the Padres with a sneer, a guffaw, a rolling of the eyes than it is to examine the situation and try to figure out whether the “obvious outcome” really is obvious.
With that in mind, one question we might consider is how the Game 2 starters have fared against the batters they are likely to face:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astacio vs current Cardinals | 203 | .335 | .378 | .581 |
| Mulder vs current Padres | 84 | .393 | .458 | .571 |
Neither starter has shown much of an ability to retire guys on the other team. For the Cardinals, Larry Walker (.500/.533/.846 in 26 AB) and Albert Pujols (.364/.333/1.182 in 11 AB) have posted silly numbers against Astacio. The only guy who hasn’t owned Astacio is Game 1 hero Reggie Sanders (.265/.315/.490 in 49 AB), and even he’s done reasonably well.
For the Padres, the sample is a lot smaller. Joe Randa (.375/.409/.625 in 40 AB) and Eric Young (.389/.500/.556 in 18 AB) are the only current Friars who have logged more than 10 at-bats against Mulder. Former top prospect Xavier Nady has faced Mulder three times and has two singles and a double. The Padres have been reluctant to give Nady much of a chance as a starter, but now might be a time to stick him in the lineup.
Battle of Bullpens?
If we are to believe these numbers ― and given the sample size against Mulder and the Padres’ Jekyll-and-Hyde offense, it’s hard to know what to believe ― we would be right to expect both teams to score some runs.
If that is the case, then the game could become a battle of the bullpens. Based on their respective showings in Game 1, such a battle would seem to favor the Padres (4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO on Tuesday, vs 3.0, 10, 5, 1, 3 for the Cardinals).
I Feel Fine, I Feel Happy
Here’s the thing about the Padres: They won’t die. You whack them on the back of the head, you think they are dead. Next thing you know, they want to go for a walk.
They’re stubborn that way.
The Punch Line
Nobody is giving the Padres a chance to win. Nobody really even wants the Padres to win. It’s bad for business, you know?
But here’s the crazy thing. If the Pads can hit Mulder as they have in the past and get to him early, and if Astacio can give his team even 5 solid innings (which he’s been able to do more often than not since coming over from Texas), they have a fighting chance. And assuming that the Padres are prepared to fight, that just might be enough.
Crazy, right? I think I’ll go for a walk now.
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October 6, 2005 at 4:41 am
I woke up today feeling very confident that the Padres will be victorious. I don’t know why.
I hear Nady and Johnson are starting today.
October 6, 2005 at 5:05 am
http://www.stltoday.com/stltod.....enDocument
Just wondering: What type of tip would this cabbie expect to get after being a jerk?
October 6, 2005 at 7:10 am
I don’t know about a win today, but the Padres do bounce back after getting beatup and I’m counting on that phenomonon to carry the day. Curretly trying to figure out a way to play hooky in the afternoon. Any ideas.
October 6, 2005 at 7:16 am
Are the media wrong in ignoring the comeback, bullpen performance, and the fact that we outhit them, or are we (padre fans) naively overanalytical in pointing those out?
October 6, 2005 at 7:38 am
I don’t think the media is totally wrong. The Cards are heavily favored, so I imagine that anything short of a loss doesn’t really matter. We are overly analytical, but — after our 7 year playoff drought– can you blame us?
October 6, 2005 at 8:06 am
I wish they would do a little more analysis and see that, with a healthy Greene, Eaton, Loretta, and Hernandez, this is an 86-89-win team, not unlike so many others who entered the playoffs without all this fuss. In Game 1, they lost their best pitcher to a freak injury, had several unlucky bounces, and still performed competitively against the best team in the NL. But the only story going around is that they suck, and they showed it in Game 1. And what gets to me is that they supposedly “showed it” by and missing squibblers, grounding into double plays, and throwing wild pitches. If anything, the squibblers, DPs, and WP are circumstances that led to the loss DESPITE their performance! But the Padres simply sucking and showing it is the better story, I guess.
October 6, 2005 at 8:19 am
Cards are best team in the Majors at 100-62. Padres of course at the worst of the playoff teams 82-80.
So it understandable when the MSSM (mainstream sports media) favors the Cards. But baseball a sport where things get nutty, especially in a short series.
Again, today’s game comes down to Padre clutch hitting. We have pitching, we have the bully, we get runners on, but we must get them over to win. Tuesday’s game shows we can do it so I have faith. 5 runs is generally plenty for Peavy.
How bout the ATL getting punked by the BornAgains dispite AJ’s heroics, pitching, pitching, pitching.
October 6, 2005 at 8:33 am
Hey, trying to write about clutch hitting. Fascinating topic. Anybody have some thoughts they want to share?
Some guys have it, others don’t, sometimes its the eighth hitter like Green who comes through. I’ve distilled the Padres plight this season down to lack of clutch hitting. Now I want to try to understand what clutch hitting is.
Thanks
October 6, 2005 at 8:50 am
Geoff, I think the Padres’ bullpen only threw 3.2 innings yesterday.
Going back to the regular series game, I found that (thank goodness, he’s no longer with the Padres) Tim Redding pitched in the losing game in the St. Louis series. Man, that was bad. Eleven runs in the first inning.
Padres’ bullpen beat the Cardinals’ by a step for the season.
Oh, and Giles had the 5 RBI game in the early series too. Excellent. I hope he bats 3rd today.
GO Padres!
October 6, 2005 at 9:04 am
Damn, you’re right. It was only 3.2 innings. These late nights are killing me. Thanks, Didi.
October 6, 2005 at 9:11 am
Paul Swydan, whom many of us met at the Pizza Feed, wrote this today … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4518 … which starts off with this statement …
Unlike the first day of the postseason, which featured three mediocre games, there was a playoff atmosphere Wednesday as all games were hotly contested.
… to which I just fired off the following email …
Paul -
It’s not obvious to me that the Padres/Cardinals game on Tuesday was “mediocre” compared to a “hotly contested” Astros/Braves game on Wednesday … after all, the Padres brought the winning run to the plate in the 9th … the Braves did not. (nor did the Yanks, for that matter)
Yes, the Padres are doomed … but we, their fans, remain sensative
Your fan …
Howard Lynch
… and to which he replied as follows …
Howard,
I understand what you’re saying, but the Braves/Stros was 4-3 for like 5 innings, while the Cards/Pads was 8-0,8-1 for like 5 innings. Maybe it’s just me, but I’d rather watch the 4-3 game. I did enjoy the finish of Pads/Cards, but it was only 10 minutes of action compared to Braves/Stros, which didn’t break open until the 8th.
Thanks for reading and writing,
Paul
… feels good to have spoken up! We can make a difference!
October 6, 2005 at 9:18 am
PM … check out http://www.baseball1.com/bb-da.....lutch.html … and/or go to baseballprospectus.com and search for “clutch” … count me in the camp of non-believers … these guys are good enough that they can/should be “clutch” all the time … which means that they never are!
October 6, 2005 at 9:23 am
Perhaps the definitive write-up of clutch theory … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=2724 …
October 6, 2005 at 9:30 am
I, too, am oddly confident. Over at BP, they have our odds of winning this series down to 20%, but frankly that’s better than I was expecting. CUP HALF FULL!
I’ve set up a home altar to Pedro, and am praying one of the kids (Ben X. Greene) makes a statement today. ‘Til the Padres season ends, I will be drinking from The Perpetually Half-Full Chalice, and hoping that’s not Kool-Aid in there.
Amen! Shalom! Namaste! Go get ‘em, boys.
October 6, 2005 at 9:41 am
Did anyone make a sacrifice to Jobu?
October 6, 2005 at 9:45 am
Also, I’m seeing now that the game will start at 1:05 p.m. PT, not 10:05 a.m. as earlier reported. Shoot, I’ve got the VCR queued up for the wrong time. Somebody will have to be my eyes and ears for this one.
I swear, I checked that a bazillion times. Sometimes I really hate MLB.
October 6, 2005 at 9:49 am
In keeping with the theme of unbridled optimism, Geoff, any chance of your putting up a countdown to our WS championship? You can set it at 11, and by 4:30 this afternoon, you’ll need to change it to 10.
October 6, 2005 at 10:08 am
Arrrg! 1:00-3:00 conference call… Damn these people with their unrealistic expectations of productivity during the playoffs!
October 6, 2005 at 10:18 am
WS countdown. Hmmm, I kinda like that idea. I’ll see what I can whip together…
October 6, 2005 at 10:41 am
A 1-3 conference call in SD today is insane. I could not even imagine . . . In case everyone wants to know the viewpoint back East of the Padres, just know that I have been hearing Jake Peavy jokes for 2 days now. I am tired of talking about his ribs.
My only solace is that both the Yanks and the Sox (Red ones) lost last night, so it’s pretty quiet around here.
October 6, 2005 at 10:59 am
Jake Peavy jokes, eh? There’s nothing funnier than broken ribs I suppose. Sounds like you live in a pretty classy part of the world.
October 6, 2005 at 11:03 am
Thanks, LM I’ll check those links out!
2-hour conf calls, what fun. My 2 o’clock got cancelled by a dodger fan-hmmmm.
Feeling good about the Padres too. Play good ball and see what happens. And please, please, a few clutch hits. Like in the Angel win last night, nice clutch hitting.
October 6, 2005 at 11:18 am
Diss.
October 6, 2005 at 11:20 am
joking, Geoff, don’t worry
October 6, 2005 at 11:21 am
jokin, Geoff, don’t worry
October 6, 2005 at 11:24 am
whoops.
October 6, 2005 at 11:46 am
LOL. Thanks, Eric.
October 6, 2005 at 12:03 pm
NG: sorry to read that you have to put up with so much classy jokes. Do share some good ones, though.
Tell them to slow down, lest their jokes cracked them some ribs. Unless, those are not funny enough to crack themselves up.
They’ll shut up by the time the sun is down today. Yes, they will. I’m feeling a win today.
GO Padres!
October 6, 2005 at 12:23 pm
My part of the world isn’t THAT bad. I just live among Yankee\Red Sox\Mets fans.
Only way to shut them up is if the Pads win. Actually, the Mets fans have been a pretty morose group the last few years . . .
October 6, 2005 at 1:02 pm
Giles in CF:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=251006124
October 6, 2005 at 1:05 pm
Wow, absolutely no respect from the Baseball Tonight crew in the pregame show. They laughed (literally) about what the Cardinal bats have done to Pedro in the past and about the weak lineup the Padres are using today. One guy said, “I don’t see how they can even win a game in this series.” Pissed me off. Love to shove this game right down their throats.
October 6, 2005 at 1:10 pm
I hope they laughed about what the Padres bats have done to Mulder in the past, because they’ve hit him even harder.
October 6, 2005 at 1:12 pm
Game on….EY fouling ‘em off…5 pitches in abd the count is 1-2.
October 6, 2005 at 1:12 pm
7th pitch leads to routine 6-3
October 6, 2005 at 1:12 pm
baseballdirect.com has this lineup …
E. Young, LF
M. Loretta, 2B
R. Hernandez, C
B. Giles, CF
K. Greene, SS
J. Randa, 3B
X. Nady, 1B
B. Johnson, RF
P. Astacio, P
October 6, 2005 at 1:14 pm
Ah Yoga, calms the mind. Hernandez could have used some Yoga on Tuesday. Anyway, play ball!!!
Go Padres!!!
October 6, 2005 at 1:17 pm
Hernandez again swings at ball 4 on a 3-1 count, fouls it off, then grounds out on next pitch to end inning.
October 6, 2005 at 1:17 pm
Ramon took 3 pitches? That’s a good sign already!
October 6, 2005 at 1:18 pm
Mulder threw 18 pitches (7 balls, 11 strikes)
October 6, 2005 at 1:18 pm
Yes, that’s something. I think that was 17 pitches from Mulder.
October 6, 2005 at 1:19 pm
Thanks, LM, I was counting in my head - now that’s a mistake!
October 6, 2005 at 1:21 pm
Eckstein singled to center … I can hear the laughter
October 6, 2005 at 1:22 pm
Aw, c’mon; Eckstein isn’t *that* bad.
October 6, 2005 at 1:23 pm
6-4-3 inning over
October 6, 2005 at 1:23 pm
BTW, I like this OF configuration today. If Roberts were in left, it’d probably be the best we have.
October 6, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Giles hits the ball off Mulder’s glove, but recovers and throws him out just in time.
October 6, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Pujols grounded into a double play … ah, a victory over 2 nemisi in 1 swing
October 6, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Four batters, four ground outs from Mulder.
October 6, 2005 at 1:28 pm
Greenie walks
October 6, 2005 at 1:28 pm
Gameday provides pitch counts, # of ball, # of strikes. Mouseover the pitchers picture.
October 6, 2005 at 1:29 pm
K.Greene walked … let the rally BEGIN!
October 6, 2005 at 1:30 pm
Randa drills Mulder, everybody safe
October 6, 2005 at 1:31 pm
Trainer checking on Mulder
October 6, 2005 at 1:32 pm
He’s taking a couple throws…and staying in.
October 6, 2005 at 1:32 pm
the plural of nemesis is nemisi? awesome!
October 6, 2005 at 1:33 pm
Hits Nady…bases full
October 6, 2005 at 1:34 pm
Hit him in lower left leg.
October 6, 2005 at 1:34 pm
Sorry, guys. I checked it out; pl. is “nemeses”.
http://www.webster.com/cgi-bin.....va=nemesis
October 6, 2005 at 1:35 pm
Randa infield single to short
Nady was hit by a pitch,
… bases loaded!
October 6, 2005 at 1:36 pm
Ben K’s
October 6, 2005 at 1:36 pm
Eric … you & I can stick with “nemisi”
October 6, 2005 at 1:36 pm
Arrgghhh
October 6, 2005 at 1:37 pm
I wonder if Bochy thought about PH’ing Roberts for Johnson???
October 6, 2005 at 1:37 pm
3 LOBs damn. Where is our Clutch mojo?
October 6, 2005 at 1:38 pm
Mulder now at 37 pitches (15 balls, 22 strikes) after just 2 IP …
October 6, 2005 at 1:39 pm
Johnson did about the worst thing he could do there by striking out. I wish Bochy would have put someone more experienced in the 8 spot.
October 6, 2005 at 1:39 pm
did BJ just swing at balls 3 and 4?
October 6, 2005 at 1:40 pm
Mulder has gone back to the training room between innings for a closer look at his arm.
October 6, 2005 at 1:41 pm
Pedro gets ahead of Walker 0-2 … I’m not watching … is he just “goin’ after ‘em”?
October 6, 2005 at 1:42 pm
Pedro K’s Walker…and then Greene makes a very nice catch of Sanders’ liner for out #2
October 6, 2005 at 1:43 pm
Strike 3 on Walker was high, inside, probably not a strike - Walker wasn’t pleased with the call
October 6, 2005 at 1:46 pm
On Ben’s K…on 2-0, the pitch was a strike…he just missed, same on the final strike. But on 2-1 count he swung at one out of the zone.
October 6, 2005 at 1:46 pm
Our Pedro has faced 6 hitters in first 2 IP … 20 pitches (8 balls, 12 strikes)
October 6, 2005 at 1:47 pm
Loretta lines one-out single to left
October 6, 2005 at 1:48 pm
Loretta singled to left … let the RALLY begin!
October 6, 2005 at 1:49 pm
Aaaaaack, cable went out!!! Appears to be only effecting ESPN & ESPN2!!!!!!
October 6, 2005 at 1:49 pm
the Cards starters are obviously vulnerable. Frustrating that we haven’t taken advantage of it, with all these LOB.
October 6, 2005 at 1:52 pm
OK, ESPN2 is back…and in commercial. Wha’happned?
October 6, 2005 at 1:53 pm
Somebody else try to start the next RALLY please … so far, I’m 0-for-2
October 6, 2005 at 1:53 pm
dprat, while you were away …
B.Giles grounded out, third baseman Abraham O.Nunez to first baseman Pujols.
October 6, 2005 at 1:53 pm
LynchMob, you are the Padres’ nemesis
October 6, 2005 at 1:55 pm
& Hernandez?
October 6, 2005 at 1:56 pm
Oh, my, Khalil boots a DP ball
October 6, 2005 at 1:57 pm
Bad hop - on the replay, it came way up on him
October 6, 2005 at 1:58 pm
Mulder gets down the bunt on 0-2 after looking really bad on the first two attempts…damn
October 6, 2005 at 2:01 pm
Hot smash to Nady, he comes home, but Nunez beats the throw.
October 6, 2005 at 2:03 pm
Nady had to stretch to get to the ball, came up, Pedro was not moving quick enough to first…his only play was at the plate. Boch argued the call, but Nunez was safe. Based loaded now for Pujols.
October 6, 2005 at 2:04 pm
This is sounding a lot like the beginning of Tuesday’s game. Our guy is outpitching theirs but getting no help from his offense or defense.
October 6, 2005 at 2:05 pm
No disrespect to Ben Johnson, but I’m sure wishing Jocketty would’ve coughed up Pujols right about now.
October 6, 2005 at 2:06 pm
Walking Pujols here isn’t the worst thing that could happen …
October 6, 2005 at 2:06 pm
Walks Pujols. 8 balss in last nine pitches. 2-0 Cards
October 6, 2005 at 2:07 pm
Hensley is up in the pen
October 6, 2005 at 2:08 pm
Hang on … let’s let Padro close to the door on this rally … 2 down t’aint bad …
October 6, 2005 at 2:08 pm
AAAAGGHGAGHHAHGHGHHGHGHHHH!
October 6, 2005 at 2:09 pm
that’s all I have to say
October 6, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Yes…Walker K’s. Needed that.
October 6, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Eric … are you OK?
October 6, 2005 at 2:10 pm
Hmmm…Reggie up with bases loaded…seems familiar
October 6, 2005 at 2:10 pm
I hope Pedro doesn’t have a broken rib …
October 6, 2005 at 2:11 pm
Eric … did you break a rib?
October 6, 2005 at 2:13 pm
YES! Reggie K’s. Wow, how long was that half inning. I think Mulder had surgery and a couple minor league rehab starts in the interim.
October 6, 2005 at 2:13 pm
Attaboy, Pedro! Fastball up?