Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (8-11, 4.72 ERA) vs Matt Cain (2-1, 1.71 ERA)
preview: USA Today

Avalanche or roadblock
I was a snowball in hell
Avalanche or roadblock
A jailer trapped in his cell

Money’s all broke, and food’s going hungry
If it wasn’t for disappointment
I wouldn’t have any appointments

Unfortunately, they are Giants and they won’t go away. Somebody do me a favor and shoot me an e-mail when it’s safe to watch again.

first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (7-14, 4.74 ERA) vs Noah Lowry (12-12, 3.82 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

magic number: 15

Dearest Padres of San Diego:

Thank you ever so much for scoring three runs in the first inning of our recent base ball match and then refraining from scoring further runs so that we might rally against you and claim victory for our side, thus enabling our humble clubs to remain in a playoff race which, by all rights, should have ended long ago. Your gesture showed tremendous compassion for your fellow man and will be acknowledged in the grandest way possible should we somehow manage to overtake your detachment and win the esteemed National League West title. Your considerable efforts toward our cause will be known to all who follow our great and noble sport. Again, we give thanks to you for the tremendous opportunity you have provided us. You have truly gone above and beyond the call of sportsmanship, and we shall not soon forget your graciousness, your gentility, and, of course, your gifts.

Humbly and very respectfully yours,
Mssrs. Brad Penny and Kevin Correia

first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (12-7, 5.83 ERA) vs Kevin Correia (2-5, 4.31 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

magic number: 15

[Note: When I first started working on this, the matchup was supposed to be between Eaton and Jason Schmidt. No such luck, but I thought the comparison between the two was interesting enough to post, so that's what you're getting. Also, Barry Bonds is scheduled to return to the Giants lineup Monday night. We'll talk more about that after it actually happens, hopefully in the context of how the Padres won despite his presence.]

Because Jason Schmidt shows up at #8 on Adam Eaton‘s list of similar pitchers through age 26 at Baseball-Reference.com, because both pitchers hail from the state of Washington, and because we all get a good junior-high-school laugh when we say Eaton-Schmidt, I decided to take a look at how these two pitchers compared with one another at roughly the same stage in their careers. Thanks to David Pinto’s Day by Day Database, it was a breeze:

You already know this, but I have to say it anyway. The following is not a representation of what Eaton will do in the future. It is merely a look at what someone who exhibited characteristics similar to those of Eaton at roughly the same stage in their careers went on to do. The best we can do is speculate that Eaton might follow a similar path. With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s what Schmidt has done:

Basically, Schmidt made huge strides in hit prevention, home run prevention, and strikeouts, and a more modest improvement in walk prevention. That’s a recipe for a major breakthrough.

What about individual game dominance (where dominance is arbitrarily defined as 7+ IP, 10+ SO, or 2+ (IP-H))? Have a look:

This still tells us more about Schmidt than about Eaton, but it’s instructive in its way. Schmidt started going deeper into games (a relative strength of his to begin with), and kicked his dominant games into high gear. I don’t know how those numbers compare with the entire league, but here’s what the Padres starters have done since 2000 (through September 9, 2005), a span of 950 games:

Schmidt’s early-career high-strikeout and low-hit games are fairly well in line with a decent sample of Padres starters. Again, his ability to go deep into games has always been pretty good. Eaton’s numbers are all slightly above average among Padres starters. Maybe it would help to see how Eaton compares with another current Padre, Jake Peavy:

Not much help, but this does point up just how terrific Schmidt has been over the past 5 years. I think Peavy has taken over the title of best starting pitcher in the NL West (keep your eye on the Giants’ Matt Cain, though), but he’s still not approaching some of the dominance that Schmidt has displayed over the latter part of his career.

So, what does any of this have to do with Eaton? It’s pretty clear that he and Schmidt share a lot of characteristics through their first 770 or so innings in the big leagues. It’s also clear that Schmidt made a monumental leap and was able maintain his new level of performance for a very long time. Also ― and this is where things get a little more subjective ― if you watch Schmidt, he’s got #1 starter stuff. Eaton? Not quite. He has a great arm, but he’s probably closer to Andy Ashby than Kevin Brown, if you get my drift. And there’s certainly no shame in that.

To summarize: Could Eaton take a leap similar to the one Schmidt took? Yes, but don’t count on it. Is it reasonable, based on their early-career numbers, to expect such a leap from Eaton? Probably not; more likely, Schmidt is the aberration. Does this mean Eaton won’t take a step up at some point in the near future? No, but it probably won’t be as big as the one Schmidt took. What is the most likely scenario for Eaton? Slow, steady improvement over the next few years; with no statistical evidence whatsoever to back me up on this, I believe the Eaton we saw earlier in the year before he landed on the DL is the Eaton we’re going to see in 2006.

first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (12-7, 5.83 ERA) vs Brad Penny (6-9, 3.82 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

magic number: 15

Fun with anagrams: Carhop Hank squares off against Brandy Pen. I don’t know what that means either, but it’s Sunday; you were expecting, perhaps, something more?

first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: Clay Hensley (0-0, 2.25 ERA) vs Derek Lowe (9-13, 3.77 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
magic number: 16

No, he’s not Jake Peavy, but Hensley has done a terrific job since being recalled from Portland. After 16 relief appearances for the Pads, the 25-year-old right-hander makes his first big-league start and I, for one, am psyched.

You won’t find Hensley on any prospect lists because he’s a little long in the tooth by prospect standards and he doesn’t throw a bazillion miles an hour. But Hensley has an idea of how to pitch, and everything he throws has movement. Brian Lawrence with stuff.

I like the way the Padres have eased Hensley into a role with the big club and that they’re giving him a spot start against the Dodgers. This is a guy who, if he shows anything as a starter (which he did in spades at Triple-A this year), I’d love to see in the 2006 rotation.

Among the three twentysomethings and the two vets with large contracts, there might not be an immediate opening, but it’s nice to know that guys like Hensley, Tim Stauffer, and Cesar Carrillo (and even Chris Oxspring) are knocking on the door and available if needed. This depth helped soften the blow of losing two good young arms to Cincinnati in the Joe Randa deal.

Speaking of Carrillo, he’s starting tonight at Elsinore in the Cal League playoffs. First pitch, 7:05 p.m. I may head up there; then again, after last weekend’s road trip, I may just hang out on the couch and have a beer or two. Because that’s the kind of wild and crazy guy I am.

But enough about me. Let’s beat the Dodgers. Let’s keep whittling away at that magic number and get into the freakin’ playoffs. I’m psyched. Are you psyched? I said, ARE YOU PSYCHED?

Go get ‘em, boys!

first pitch: 7:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (7-11, 4.85 ERA) vs D.J. Houlton (5-8, 5.23 ERA)

Hey, welcome to analysis-free Friday. As Rich Campbell points out over at San Diego Spotlight, the Padres’ magic number is at 17. Even the thought of having to face D.J. Houlton again can’t bring me down from that.

Anyway, that was perilously close to analysis. We’re not going there. Instead, we’re going here:

Friday Links

• Behind the Scenes with Padres GM Kevin Towers (Portland Beavers). Towers, who grew up in Oregon, talks about Clay Hensley, Ben Johnson, and a whole slew of other stuff (Sean Burroughs behind the plate?). Great interview, full of the candor we’ve come to expect from Towers.
• You Can Count on It (Hardball Times). I’m loving the analysis (oops, there’s that word again) these guys are doing. We know Brian Giles is good at getting into a hitter’s count, but now, thanks to Dan Fox, we know exactly how good he is at it.
• Matt Varner finishes second in Rolaids Relief (Scout.com). From the article: “Four different closers in the San Diego Padres system led their respective league in saves.” More curious than meaningful, but there it is.
• Prospects expected to be long gone by now (Ft. Wayne Journal Gazette). Sarah Trotto takes a closer look at youngsters Mike Ekstrom, Matt Bush, and Yordany Ramirez. She has another piece on Matt Lauderdale.
• Rocket from the Crypt Calls It Quits (San Diego Blog). Nothing to do with baseball, but these guys have been a big part of the local music scene for a long time and they rock.
• Last, but certainly not least, check out Dictionaraoke, where “the fun of karaoke meets the word power of the dictionary.” Seriously, if you can visit only one link today, make it this one. [Tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to my favorite copy-editing blog, A Capital Idea.]

That’s all for now. Go Pads!

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (7-14, 4.83 ERA) vs Sunny Kim (4-2, 4.50 ERA)

Random Thoughts

• Nice outing from Adam Eaton Wednesday night. He’s not quite back where he was before the injury, but he’s getting closer all the time. Padres seriously need him to step up down the stretch.
• How huge was Akinori Otsuka‘s strikeout of Todd Helton to end the eighth? Aki fell behind Helton 3-0, and we assumed he was being pitched around. But Aki battled back to full count and got Helton swinging on a fastball. I think Aki and Ramon Hernandez were the only two people in the park expecting anything other than a slider.
• Ben Johnson now has 10 big-league hits; 9 are for extra bases.
• Did you ever expect Jeff Kent and Armando Benitez to be two of our biggest heroes at this point in the season?
• Remember the fuss over Brian Giles‘ home/road splits earlier in the year? For the season, there’s a nearly 200 point difference in OPS, but check out the numbers since June 1:
  

  Brian Giles Home/Road Splits from June 1 to September 7, 2005

  	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	XB/H	AB/HR
  Home	156	.314	.409	.506	.192	.327	26.0
  Road	130	.308	.445	.446	.138	.350	130.0

  And compare those with his numbers before June 1:

  Brian Giles Home/Road Splits from April 1 to May 31, 2005

  	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	XB/H	AB/HR
  Home	76	.197	.347	.303	.105	.400	inf
  Road	107	.355	.466	.682	.327	.526	15.3

  Sort of skews the overall results:

  Brian Giles Home/Road Splits from April 1 to September 7, 2005

  	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	XB/H	AB/HR
  Home	232	.276	.388	.440	.164	.344	38.7
  Road	237	.329	.455	.553	.224	.436	29.6

  Points? Two of ‘em: 1) pay attention to sample size; 2) maybe Giles has a better idea of how to hit at Petco than some folks give him credit for (after all, he did have a slightly higher OPS at home in 2004 than on the road).

That’s all I’ve got. Let’s finish the series with a win and head to LA with a little momentum. Go Pads!

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (9-3, 3.90 ERA) vs Jeff Francis (12-10, 5.87 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

The Giants are now in second place. Thanks to Jeff Kent‘s heroics for the Dodgers Tuesday night, San Francisco remains 5 back of the Padres, who literally threw away another game against the Rockies.

Ten walks to Colorado hitters? Miguel Olivo flipping a ball into the dugout while it’s still in play, allowing Todd Helton to score what proved to be the winning run from first on a routine fly out to left? Manny Alexander at first base (if only for two batters, before Bruce Bochy made yet another double switch)?

Wake up, folks; there’s a division to be won here. Padres still have to stink less than everyone else for that to happen. Now would be an excellent time to stop making stupid mistakes and start playing good baseball.

Other Stuff

• Batted Balls and DIPS (Hardball Times). The quest for reliable predictors of future pitching performance continues. Pretty heady stuff here. Chad Cordero‘s numbers are particularly interesting.
• Whatever Happened to Ichiro? (Hardball Times). David Gassko examines Ichiro Suzuki‘s decline and finds that it is, in fact, a decline. I guess plans for him to become the player people think Tony Gwynn was are on hold for now.
• And Here’s the Pitch … (Hardball Times). Are these guys writing all the good stuff? So it seems. I am fascinated by the fact that Dave Roberts has hit the fewest number of foul balls per plate appearance among big leaguers over the past five years. Anectodally it seems like he battles at the plate.
• Padres’ scouting guru ga-ga over top picks (NC Times). John Maffei takes a look at the Padres system.
• Rockies no pushovers: Last in NL West is best recently (NC Times). Brian Hiro notes that the Pads are 5 games worse than the Rox since June 1.
• Padres take no chances, examine Peavy’s shoulder
  (NC Times). From the article: “Padres trainer Todd Hutcheson described Peavy’s problem as an impingement of the rotator cuff.” Peavy is expected to make his next start this Saturday at Los Angeles.
• Pulling A Lenny: Evolution, Prevolution & Lenny Harris’ Deboning of the Marlins (Management by Baseball). Don’t let the unwieldy title scare you away; this is a good read. I’d try to summarize it but I always have trouble putting Jeff Angus’ work into neat little boxes. You’ll have to read it for yourself.

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (12-6, 5.79 ERA) vs Aaron Cook (3-1, 3.76 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

The talk show yahoos are hereby invited to stop asking whether the Padres should be embarrassed to go to the playoffs if they finish the season with a losing record. Here’s the deal: Somebody has to win the NL West; that’s just the way it works. You have a problem with that, talk to Bud Selig. Otherwise, zip it; you’re making yourself sound like an idiot.

Somebody has to represent the NL West in the playoffs. Get over it already.