Prospects from 1996, Revisited – Part 6

by Geoff Young on Aug 29, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

6. Minor League and Major League Stats

[This is a continuing series that will run periodically throughout the 2005 season. Start here for full details.]

Let’s look at the average minor-league stat lines (through 1995) for each of the different grades assigned by John Sickels in his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook. To save space, I’ve only included rate stats here.

Minor League Stats
Minor League Lines for Hitters
Grd BA OBP SLG BB/PA K/PA BB/K ISO XB/H
A .294 .369 .470 .106 .177 .601 .177 .341
A- .288 .357 .454 .096 .146 .661 .166 .329
B+ .290 .363 .439 .102 .157 .650 .149 .308
B .281 .355 .429 .102 .160 .635 .147 .308
B- .277 .346 .415 .094 .158 .596 .138 .303
C+ .276 .351 .422 .104 .166 .625 .146 .318
C .273 .348 .406 .103 .166 .616 .133 .296
C- .271 .340 .390 .094 .161 .587 .119 .273
tot .277 .349 .415 .100 .162 .614 .138 .300
Note. PA is AB + BB.

Prospects in the Grade A group had the highest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They walked a little more than average, and struck out a lot more. One thing that doesn’t show up in the chart above is the fact that they hit an unusually large number of triples. This is due primarily to Bobby Abreu (50 triples, 1952 at-bats) and Johnny Damon (44, 1599).

Minor League Lines for Pitchers
Grd ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB
A 3.14 7.80 0.56 3.50 9.10 2.60
A- 2.63 7.11 0.56 2.93 8.51 2.90
B+ 3.22 7.67 0.51 3.57 8.10 2.27
B 3.33 8.01 0.54 3.06 7.86 2.57
B- 3.43 8.10 0.60 3.42 7.63 2.23
C+ 3.56 8.17 0.56 3.73 7.79 2.09
C 3.58 8.47 0.59 3.34 7.19 2.15
C- 3.83 8.60 0.61 3.63 7.10 1.96
tot 3.55 8.27 0.58 3.48 7.51 2.16

Members of the A- group had the best ERA, were hardest to hit, and allowed the fewest walks. The Grade A group struck out the most batters. Generally speaking, the pitchers with the higher grades were harder to hit and struck out more batters than those with lower grades. Interestingly, there was very little difference from top to bottom in terms of home run rates.

Major League Stats
Major League Lines for Hitters
Grd BA OBP SLG BB/PA K/PA BB/K ISO XB/H
A .284 .359 .470 .105 .174 .603 .186 .360
A- .304 .362 .482 .083 .110 .757 .178 .335
B+ .268 .331 .433 .085 .163 .523 .164 .346
B .266 .332 .416 .090 .150 .602 .150 .329
B- .267 .335 .421 .093 .171 .544 .154 .337
C+ .262 .328 .429 .089 .187 .474 .167 .353
C .266 .331 .405 .089 .164 .542 .139 .307
C- .261 .325 .394 .086 .176 .487 .133 .307
tot .271 .337 .429 .090 .163 .553 .158 .334
Note. PA is AB + BB.

Players in the A- group have the highest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Five members of the A- group have batting averages above .300 (minimum 2000 at-bats: Vladimir Guerrero, .325; Nomar Garciaparra, .322; Jason Kendall, .306; Mike Sweeney, .305; Shannon Stewart, .303), whereas only two members of the A group do (Derek Jeter, .315; Abreu, .307). [Note that Garciaparra's batting average has dropped 10 points from .332 since the conclusion of the 2001 season.]

The on-base percentages of the A and A- groups are almost identical. Each group has three representatives among the top 10 (Grade A: Abreu, #2, .408; Jeter, #5, .385; Scott Rolen, #7, .378; Grade A-: Guerrero, #3, .390; Kendall, #4, .387; Sweeney, #8, .377). [Guerrero has moved from #9 to #3 on this list since the initial study. Sweeney has bumped Garciaparra out of the top 10.]

One interesting change from the initial study is the shift in distribution of slugging percentages. From 2002: “The two highest slugging percentages belong to members of the A- group (Guerrero, .587; Garciaparra, .570), while the only two Grade A players to make it into the top 10 are Abreu (#5, .522) and Rolen (#7, .508).”

Now, there is an even split among members of the A group (Abreu, #5, .522; Rolen, #6, .520; Andruw Jones, #10, .493), the A- group (Guerrero, #1, .589; Garciaparra, #3, .549; Sweeney, #7, .498), and the B group (Giles, #2, .550; Richie Sexson, #4, .528; Trot Nixon, #9, .496).

Every group on the whole became less patient at the plate upon reaching the Show. All but the A-, B, and C groups struck out more as big-leaguers. Members of the A- group made much better contact at the highest level (.110 K/PA) than in the minors (.146 K/PA). The A- group also is the only one to significantly improve its BB/K (.661 in minors, .757 in bigs).

Every group in the study had better raw power numbers in the big leagues than in the minors. The C+ and C- groups improved their numbers the most (jump from .146 to .167 ISO and .318 to .353 XB/H for the former, .119 to .133 ISO and .273 to .307 XB/H for the latter). The B group saw its power improve the least (.147 to .150 ISO and .308 to .329 XB/H).

As with the minor league numbers, and again not showing up in the chart, players in the Grade A group have hit a disproportionate number of triples. Damon (74 triples, 5553 at-bats), Jeter (42, 5513), and Abreu (41, 4140) are largely to blame.

Major League Lines for Pitchers
Grd ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB
A 4.31 8.82 0.98 3.67 7.44 2.03
A- 4.83 9.57 1.25 3.41 5.85 1.72
B+ 4.20 8.72 1.10 3.66 7.07 1.93
B 5.00 9.94 1.27 3.40 6.13 1.80
B- 4.93 9.69 1.14 3.90 5.78 1.48
C+ 4.68 9.63 1.11 3.45 6.18 1.79
C 4.70 9.28 1.11 4.05 6.58 1.63
C- 4.82 9.67 1.20 3.64 6.13 1.68
tot 4.66 9.43 1.14 3.69 6.39 1.73

In the original study, the gap between the best group (B+) and second best (A) was pretty large in terms of ERA (4.12 to 4.66). The gap has narrowed considerably (4.20 to 4.31), thanks in large part to the emergence of Jason Schmidt and the very sharp declines of Chan Ho Park and, to a lesser degree, Danny Graves and Dustin Hermanson.

The B+ group has been toughest to hit, the B group the easiest. The A group has the lowest home run rate, the B group the highest. The C group has walked the most batters, while the A group has fanned the most and displayed the best overall command.

Unlike the hitters, only one group has shown improvement in any statistical category on reaching the big leagues (the C+ group dropped its walk rate from 3.73 to 3.45 per 9 IP). The C- group has shown the least amount of degradation from minors to majors in terms of ERA (3.83 vs 4.82), the C group in terms of H/9 (8.47 vs 9.28) and strikeout rate (7.19 vs 6.58 per 9 IP), and the A group in terms of HR/9 (0.56 vs 0.98).

Overall, the pitching prospects have had much worse numbers at the big-league level than in the minors:

Minors vs Majors: Pitchers
  ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB
Minors 3.55 8.27 0.58 3.48 7.51 2.16
Majors 4.66 9.43 1.14 3.69 6.39 1.73

Next time we’ll check to see what, if any, characteristics players who have become big-league stars share. Until then, enjoy!

IGD: Padres vs Rockies (28 Aug 2005)

by Geoff Young on Aug 28, 2005 (21) Comments

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (3-10, 5.36 ERA) vs Jamey Wright (6-15, 5.70 ERA)

After Saturday night’s loss, the Pads find themselves seeking to avoid a sweep at the hands of last place Colorado.

Astacio hasn’t faced enough current Rockies to make it worth the effort, but Wright has seen a lot of these Padres over the years. As a group, they are hitting .321/.409/.511 off Wright in 190 at-bats. Brian Giles, Joe Randa, and Mark Loretta have done the most damage.

Putting the Bat on the Ball

For his career, Wright is averaging 4.81 K/9 over 1284.1 IP. Wright’s high water mark for seasons in which he has amassed 100+ innings was 5.96 K/9, in 2001 with Milwaukee.

Opponents this year are hitting .281/.333/.480 against Astacio (think Preston Wilson). They are hitting .300/.382/.487 against Wright (think Sean Casey). Day game? Expect runs and a battle of the bullpens. Advantage, Padres, but we’ll see.

I’ve got family obligations today, so you’re on your own. Enjoy!

Death by Paper Cuts

by Geoff Young on Aug 27, 2005 (1) Comments

Arrived at our seats Saturday night about two minutes before first pitch. Cory Sullivan steps to the plate, fouls the second pitch of the game off to the third base side. Ball nearly hits me.

It’s one of those nights. Later, I see myself on the giant video screen. I envy folks who genuinely believe that’s the coolest thing ever. I’m in desperate need of a shave and haircut. And a team that can score runs.

Brian Lawrence pitched a heckuva game, but made a couple of mistakes in the fifth. First, he plunked Sullivan on an 0-2 count with runners at second and third. He fanned Luis Gonzalez for the second out, but then surrendered the grand slam to Todd Helton, which was the game winner. Also, the infield single by Omar Quintanilla to lead off the inning was a play that should have been made.

The offense continues to sputter. Nobody beyond Brian Giles and Mark Sweeney can be depended on to deliver (and even Sweeney has had a rough two nights against the Rockies). Damian Jackson makes shortstop look a lot harder than it needs to be.

These guys are a frustrating bunch to watch.

Stupid Things I’ve Said This Year: Part 1

by Geoff Young on Aug 27, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Just holding myself accountable. We’re limiting the discussion to baseball. My wife probably could start a whole new blog if we wanted to extend this to other categories.

  • March 23, 2005
    Projected Sean Burroughs to hit .304/.362/.432. [He was hitting .255/.327/.302 before being shipped back to Portland.]
  • March 27, 2005
    Projected Khalil Greene to hit .274/.345/.490. [He is hitting .257/.304/.427 but has made two extended trips to the DL.]
  • March 29, 2005
    Got a little too excited about the Humberto Quintero/Tim Redding trade. [It didn't really work for either team, although at least Quintero is still with the Astros.]
  • March 31, 2005
    • Picked the Pads to finish 87-75 and win the wild card. [It will take a minor miracle for them to win as many as 87 games; thankfully they won't need that many to win the NL West.]
    • Projected Adam Eaton to win 15 games and finish with a sub-3.80 ERA. [He was well on his way before getting hurt.]
    • Predicted Jake Peavy would get at least one vote for the Cy Young Award. [Too early to know for sure, but I'm sticking by this one.]
    • Projected Xavier Nady to hit .297/.355/.512. [He's hitting .262/.315/.469.]
    • Predicted the Padres wouldn’t re-sign Ramon Hernandez. [This is pretty much a no-brainer now.]

IGD: Padres vs Rockies (27 Aug 2005)

by Geoff Young on Aug 27, 2005 (16) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (7-12, 4.58 ERA) vs Sunny Kim (2-2, 5.18 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

Five observations from Friday night’s game:

  1. The Jake Peavy bobblehead they gave away bears an eerie resemblance to some generic white guy. Also, the head bobbles.
  2. Adam Eaton isn’t quite ready for prime time. In the third inning, he led off by walking pitcher Jeff Francis after jumping ahead in the count, 0-2. Leadoff man Cory Sullivan followed with a double to right after also falling behind, 0-2. Eaton’s stuff looked okay, but the command isn’t there yet.
  3. This winter, the Padres need to pick up some more arms. In the outfield. It’s embarrassing to watch opposing baserunners repeatedly run at will against the guys that are out there now. Dave Roberts was supposed to help the defense, but he’s overmatched as an everyday center fielder. Brian Giles does an okay job. Everyone else – Damian Jackson, Ryan Klesko, Eric Young – is a converted infielder who looks a bit lost out there. I hate to say it, but I miss Jay Payton.
  4. Brian Fuentes owes Garrett Atkins a nice steak dinner. Miguel Olivo absolutely scorched a pitch down the third base line that Atkins turned into a rally-blunting double play in the ninth. Roberts, inserted as a pinch runner for Xavier Nady, was the lead out on that play. Curious to bring a guy in to run at first base and not have him steal second.
  5. The Rockies are the only team in the NL West that won, so the Padres continue to lead the Battle of Who Could Care Less.

IGD: Padres vs Rockies (26 Aug 2005)

by Geoff Young on Aug 26, 2005 (16) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (9-2, 3.76 ERA) vs Jeff Francis (11-9, 6.01 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

So the Rockies are in town for the weekend. As you know, they are in last place in the dismal NL West, but just how bad is this team?

Well, um, actually the Rox have a better record than the Padres since the All-Star break. Ouch. No, really, they do:

Padres and Rockies Since the All-Star Break
  W L RS RA
Rockies 17 22 163 206
Padres 15 22 135 187

The good news, if you’re a Padres fan, is that the Rockies are 15-43 on the road this season. They are hitting just .232/.296/.362 (sort of a cross between Henry Blanco and Royce Clayton, God forbid) away from Coors Field and have been outscored, 307-188.

I Get By with a Little Help from My Friends

Jeff Francis, tonight’s starter for Colorado, actually has a higher ERA on the road (7.24) than at Coors (5.02). Go figure. He also shows up near the top/bottom of some pretty weird statistical categories: second in the NL in run support with 6.75 runs/game; second from the bottom in opponents’ OPS at .884; third from the bottom in pitches/inning at 17.3. Also, right-handed hitters are batting .326/.389/.525 against Francis this year.

On the other side, Adam Eaton makes his first big-league start since getting slapped around at Detroit on June 15 and subsequently landing on the DL. Eaton hasn’t thrown enough innings to qualify, but he’s been the beneficiary of 6.35 runs per game this year, which is remarkable given that the Padres are scoring 4.29 runs per game behind everyone.

The Padres, who are running guys out there that even the Texas Rangers couldn’t use, desperately need Eaton to return to form and provide some stability to a rotation that – beyond Jake Peavy – doesn’t instill fear in the hearts of artichokes, let alone big-league hitters.

And speaking of help, the Rockies defeated the Dodgers again in LA Thursday night. Better yet, Colorado saw four relievers throw a total of 76 pitches in the process. Not only did the Rox beat one of the Padres’ chief “competitors” in the divisional “race,” they also worked their bullpen pretty hard doing it. Sounds good to me.

Okay, so to recap:

  • Padres need a good start out of Eaton.
  • Both pitchers get huge run support when they start.
  • Righties destroy Francis.
  • Rockies bullpen is thin after beating LA.
  • Artichokes?

There you go. Let’s beat the Rockies.

Links, Just Links

by Geoff Young on Aug 25, 2005 (1) Comments

I don’t like to pull this too often, but if you’re not into reading about the way things were when dinosaurs ruled the earth, here are some links to articles you may find interesting. Feel free to provide your own commentary on these or anything else.

From the Vault: Lusty Latin and the Devil Rays

by Geoff Young on Aug 25, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

[After taking the series from the Astros with a win Wednesday night, the Padres are taking the day off, and so am I. This post originally ran May 7, 2002. Enjoy!]

Made it back from Vegas without losing too much money. Didn’t catch a ballgame but I did participate in a supplemental draft for my NL Vegas Scoresheet league. Picked up Joe Borowski, Eddie Oropesa, Chad Zerbe, and Brad Lidge. Hey, I was grateful to get even those guys.

Blew most of my money on video poker, with a few sports bets thrown in for good measure. Picked Lusty Latin to win the Kentucky Derby. He was an 18-1 shot, a few experts seemed to think he didn’t suck, and I liked the name. What the heck. Of course he then proceeded to finish 15th in a field of 18. Lusty Latin. The Devil Rays of the Kentucky Derby.

Speaking of the D-Rays, I picked them to beat the Red Sox Saturday night. First start for Derek Lowe after his no-no, up against Joe Kennedy. Good odds: $1.85 on the dollar. And for a while it looked like my boys were gonna come through for me. Until he came to bat. Shea Hillenbrand popped a pinch-hit grand slam in the ninth to win it for Boston. So much for that. Tampa Bay. The Lusty Latin of Major League Baseball. Sigh.

Loverboy and Toto played a free concert on Fremont Street Saturday. I didn’t catch it myself but I understand it was worth the price of admission. No signs of Journey or Kansas. Actually, a Toto-Kansas double bill might be cool, in a Wizard of Oz kind of way.

I can’t tell you how close I came to buying a naked lady lighter from one of the gift shops. You know, just in case Anne Wilson showed up and Loverboy decided to break out “Almost Paradise” or something. Loverboy. The Devil Rays of ’80s Canadian hair bands.

But the weekend wasn’t a total loss. I did pick up a $34 ukelele. My wife bought it for me. Can’t wait to slap a pickup on that thing and run it through my Marshall. Heh.

Anyway, we’ve drifted pretty far off the subject here, which is baseball. So how about a little Padre news? Ben Howard had a shaky second start and has been moved to the bullpen. Brian Tollberg, who relieved Howard and kept the Pads in the game Friday night, returns to the rotation, while Matt DeWitt heads to the DL to replace Kevin Jarvis. As I’ve said before, letting Howard work out of the bullpen, where he can let loose and work on his secondary pitches, might not be such a bad idea.

No need to be alarmed by Dennis Tankersley‘s recent one-batter start at Chattanooga. After allowing a leadoff single, Tank was removed following a 91-minute rain delay. Also at Mobile, right fielder Ben Johnson knocked a couple dingers last week. He’s got his numbers up to a respectable .252/.352/.383.

And at Elsinore, Xavier Nady played his first game in the field Sunday afternoon. He went 0-for-2 while patrolling left field. If all goes well, he should move up to Triple-A Portland within the next week or two. Second baseman Jake Gautreau continues to swing a hot bat and is now hitting .292/.354/.438.

There you go.

IGD: Padres vs Astros (24 Aug 2005)

by Geoff Young on Aug 24, 2005 (23) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (10-6, 6.07 ERA) vs Ezequiel Astacio (2-6, 6.21 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

After Tuesday night’s epic matchup, Wednesday promises to be a bit of a letdown. Still, the Padres have put themselves in position to win a series against a good team. And the rest of the division continues to play with an alarming amount of apathy.

I’m still too pumped from the Jake Peavy – Roger Clemens battle to really analyze Park vs Astacio. Somehow it just doesn’t seem very interesting to me.

So, what else is going on?

Other Stuff

Well, I guess not a lot else is going on. I’ll be out at the game again tonight so talk it up, y’all!

Peavy vs Clemens: One for the Ages

by Geoff Young on Aug 23, 2005 (8) Comments

Wow. Just wow. That was vintage Jake Peavy. He got himself into a little trouble in the third and again in the sixth but worked his way out of both jams, and that was pretty much the game.

I mostly have photos today, with very little analysis. Enjoy…

In the Bullpen

Jake Peavy warms up in the bullpen Roger Clemens warms up in the bullpen

Roger Clemens warms up in the bullpen

I was able to get some shots of Peavy from directly above the Padres bullpen behind left center. I couldn’t get over to the visitors’ bullpen before Roger Clemens was finished warming up; this was as close as I got.

Game Time

Jake Peavy delivers outside to Adam Everett Roger Clemens pitches to Jake Peavy

Left: Peavy got ahead 0-2 against Adam Everett in the third, then ran the count full before giving up a double just inside the third base line.

Right: I love Peavy’s swing on this pitch. I don’t think he made contact here, but he did single against Clemens a little later in the game.

Pivotal Plays

Jake Peavy pitches to Roger Clemens

Jake Peavy keeps dealing

 Brian Giles takes Roger Clemens deep to right

Left: (top) This is the beginning of the end of the third inning rally for Houston. After getting the first two runners on base, the Astros basically bunted themselves out of the frame. Note Xavier Nady charging in from first base. Clemens got the bunt down but Nady pounced on it and fired to third for the out. Willy Taveras followed with a bunt that Miguel Olivo grabbed and fired to third to again nab the lead runner. (bottom) Peavy was relentless. This isn’t the best photo but it gives a good look at Peavy’s delivery.

Right: Brian Giles goes yard, providing the second of the only two runs in Tuesday night’s game. Clemens, Giles, Brad Ausmus, and home plate umpire Jeff Nelson all are looking out toward right field, beyond which the ball landed.