Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

first pitch: 12:05 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Adam Eaton (10-4, 4.10 ERA) vs Aaron Cook (5-1, 3.39 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Wednesday Recap

How clutch was Jake Peavy Wednesday night? Pads seriously needed innings out of their ace, and that’s precisely what they got. Their lead in the NL West remains at 5, with 11 games to play. The buzz around the country surrounding the Padres’ pursuit of the division title is deafening. Or it would be, if anyone cared.

Day Game Alert

Noon start for folks on the West Coast. No television. Ah yes, pennant fever.

Cook averages 3.28 K/9 IP over his career. This year, that number is even lower, 2.77. Despite the alarming lack of dominance, Cook has fared well in 2005. He may have hit upon a recipe for success at Coors: no walks and lots of ground balls (3.27 GB/FB ratio this year).

Eaton sports a 5.93 ERA since the All-Star break. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Padres really need a second starter to step up going into the playoffs. Right now it’s looking like that might be ― gasp ― Pedro Astacio. I’d sure feel a lot better if Eaton started pitching well again.

Division Winners with Negative Run Differentials

Padres current run differential is -52. Fueled by comments from Eric and Brian G. in Tuesday night’s IGD and thanks to the indispensable Lahman database, I found that four teams since division play began in 1969 have won their division with a negative differential:

1994 Rangers: -84 (strike, no playoffs)
1987 Twins: -20 (World Series champs, beating Cards in 7)
1984 Royals: -13 (swept in division series by eventual WS champ Tigers)
1997 Giants: -9 (swept in division series by eventual WS champ Marlins)

So if history is any guide, the Pads will win it all or lose to the team that does (or there will be a labor dispute). Similarities? Forget the Twins. They had four guys hit 28+ homers; barring a minor miracle, the Pads won’t have anyone hit 20.

This team probably most closely resembles the 1984 Royals squad, which had a stud (Bud Black) at the head of the rotation and a strong bullpen anchored by the late, great Dan Quisenberry (remember when a closer could work 129 innings?). The rest of the starting staff was pretty pedestrian, with guys like Larry Gura and Charlie Liebrandt playing the roles currently occupied by Woody Williams and Brian Lawrence.

The offense was a haphazard collection of veteran bats (Frank White, Hal McRae, Jorge Orta, George Brett), role players (Darryl Motley, Pat Sheridan, Dane Iorg), a competent leadoff hitter (Willie Wilson), and one real power threat (Steve Balboni). Okay, it’s not a perfect match, but there are some definite similarities between that team and the 2005 Padres.

Enough of my slapdash analysis. Time to take the series and wrap this thing up.

first pitch: 5:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (12-7, 2.98 ERA) vs Mike Esposito (MLB debut)

You lose by 19 runs, you get no “Magic Number” banner. Silver linings? Well, nobody got hurt.

Sean Burroughs made his big-league pitching debut and served up a three-run homer to Matt Holliday. Sure, it was an embarrassing loss, but I can think of worse things in the world. In fact, here are ten of them:

Ten Things Worse Than Losing 20-1 to the Rockies at Coors Field

1. Too much coffee and an “Elimidate” marathon
2. Nana Mouskouri
3. Cleaning bathrooms at a pre-school (trust me on this one)
4. Losing 20-1 to the Rockies at Petco Park
5. Stupid blog lists
6. Eggplant
7. Boat racing
8. The man scarf
9. Police Academy 6 (I don’t know for a fact that it’s bad, but I like my odds)
10. The skullet

Peavy goes for the Pads Wednesday night. I won’t guarantee a win, but I’m counting on it being better than a skullet.

first pitch: 5:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (8-11, 4.61 ERA) vs Jamey Wright (7-16, 5.73 ERA)
magic number: 8 –>

Padres overcame a Brian Lawrence meltdown to beat the Rox in the opener at Coors Monday night. The headlines will all sing the praises of Khalil Greene (and rightly so; he doubled and knocked two homers, including the game winner to lead off the ninth), but let’s not forget the efforts of Chan Ho Park, who kept the Friars in the game at a time when things could have gotten real ugly.

And is there a better reliever around than Scott Linebrink? The steady right-hander picked up his eighth win of the season after working two scoreless innings to keep the game close until Greene worked his magic. Since the beginning of 2004, exactly two pitchers who have worked 140 or more innings over the past two seasons have a better ERA than Linebrink: Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge.

Tuesday night, Woody Williams takes the hill. If they are to have any hope of getting deep into the playoffs, the Padres need someone other than Jake Peavy to step up. Williams is a good candidate. He’s a veteran who’s been around a while. After battling injuries and ineffectiveness for much of the second half, Williams is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three September starts. He isn’t throwing masterpieces but he’s getting the job done.

For scoreboard watchers, the Giants are at the Washington, and the Dodgers are at Arizona. The Giants are the only team still in it, and they’re not really in it. The Pads could win 3 of their last 13 games this year, and the Giants would have to win three times as many just to tie. We’ll keep an eye on things, but it’s pretty much a formality at this point.

Barry Bonds, meantime, can continue his pursuit of Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron. Then, like the rest of us, he can go home and watch the Padres in the playoffs.

first pitch: 5:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (7-15, 4.83 ERA) vs Sunny Kim (5-2, 4.57 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

magic number: 9

Who do I have to sleep with to get some Padres coverage now that football has started? Last night on local TV, I could watch a painfully detailed breakdown of the Chargers’ loss followed by an “oh yeah, the Padres won.” I expect that from ESPN, where everyone was too busy tripping on Barry Bonds‘ homer against the Dodgers to note that his Giants aren’t gaining any ground in the NL West. But how come we can’t get at least a little enthusiasm here in town for the Padres? Sure, they’re a .500 club but they’re going to the playoffs.

Instead we get about three-quarters of the front page of Monday’s U-T sports section devoted to the Chargers and how at 0-2, and with 14 games remaining, it’s going to be a “hard road to reach playoffs.” The Pads, who also have 14 games remaining and who mounted another great comeback on Sunday to win the brief homestand against the Nationals, are pushed to the bottom of the page, alongside boat racing.

Yes, I said boat racing.

It’s September and the hometown baseball team is on a collision course with the postseason for the first time since 1998, and all we hear about is football and boat racing? Look, I’ve got nothing against those fine sports, but what’s even on the line there?

I like the Chargers, have since the early Dan Fouts days when the crowd would boo him and call for James Harris, but it’s the middle of September. The Padres’ magic number is in single digits. The Chargers still have 14 games to right the ship. Almost 90% of their schedule has yet to be played. The Pads have 14 games to seal the deal. Please, let’s get our priorities straight, shall we?

Anyway.

Monday night’s game is a rematch of the September 8 contest at Petco. Neither starter figured in the decision that night, although both Lawrence (7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER) and Kim (6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER) pitched well. Pads won the game on a Robert Fick double in the 10th.

Other Stuff

• Pads are in danger of finishing the season without a single 20-homer guy for the first time since 1994, when Phil Plantier led the club with 18 bombs. That was a strike year; the last time the Friars didn’t have anyone reach 20 homers over a full season was 1988, when Carmelo Martinez topped out at 18. Interestingly, the Padres finished 83-78 that year, under Larry Bowa and Jack McKeon.
• Fuson called on to overhaul farm system (U-T). Lost in the winning is this move. Scout Grady Fuson’s role will expand, giving him “a more significant role both in player development and scouting,” according to GM Kevin Towers. Fuson, you will recall, is the man who drafted Jeremy Bonderman, Eric Chavez, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito, among others, for the Oakland A’s.
• Indians GM Shapiro had a plan, and now he’s getting lucky (U-T). Chris Jenkins dissects baseball’s biggest surprise of 2005. If you want to know how to win on a budget, obviously the A’s are a good place to start. But what the Indians have done this year, and how they’ve done it, is remarkable. More money is always nice but you don’t want to count on it. Spending smarter is something anyone can do, regardless of how much money they have.

Remember: No boat racing today, just baseball. Go Pads!

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (4-10, 5.18 ERA) vs Esteban Loaiza (11-10, 3.79 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
magic number: 10

So. That bit about Sean Burroughs having the Pads’ biggest hit of the year off Armando Benitez Wednesday afternoon? Sorry, son; you’ve been trumped by Khalil Greene and Ramon Hernandez.

Padres were down 5-0 with two out in the ninth. The game, for all intents and purposes, was over.

My wife and I had gone out to dinner with a group of friends, and the Pads were sinking fast in the seventh when we got home. We kept the TV on because Chris Oxspring was pitching, and he was one of our favorites when he was at Elsinore a few years ago.

Eric Young drew a walk to start the ninth, and it seemed a nice gesture, but nothing more. Hernandez proceeded to strike out and, after a pitching change, Brian Giles flied out to center for the second out. No cause for hope at all.

Then Xavier Nady singled and Nats manager Frank Robinson went to his bullpen again. This was an interesting choice, as the reliever that got pulled had thrown all of three pitches. I don’t know how Robinson normally operates, but the ninth inning felt overmanaged. I couldn’t figure out why he kept trotting different guys out there, but he knows his staff a lot better than I do so presumably there’s a reason.

Next guy comes in and throws two pitches to Joe Randa, who lines a single to score a run. Shutout is gone, so I’m relatively happy. Maybe if the Pads at least put up a little fight, they can come out strong on Sunday and avoid the sweep.

Now Robinson brings in his closer, Chad Cordero. Dude promptly walks Mark Loretta to load the bases.

Greene steps up to the plate representing the tying run. But I’m not going there because, I mean, nobody just comes up and hits a game-tying grand slam against the best closer in the league. This isn’t some scrub just up from the minors, it’s the guy leading the world in saves this year. Why harbor hope? It can only lead to disappointment.

Cordero misses with the first offering, and then the unthinkable happens. He leaves one out over the plate and Greene hammers it to left. But even this I’ve seen before and I’m assuming it will die on the track and we’ll go home, if not happy, then at least glad that the home team didn’t completely pack it in at the end.

But the ball doesn’t die on the track. It just keeps carrying and lands in the seats.

We’re stunned. We’re screaming, and we’re stunned. Folks in other parts of the country probably feel the same way about the Padres as I do about the Yankees or Red Sox, which is to say, not at all. If anything, they’ll tell you what an embarrassment the NL West is, which it is, and that will be the extent of their “analysis.”

But in these parts, every game is a battle. And the battle isn’t over until the final out has been recorded. Greene has kept the battle alive. His homer has allowed the Padres to play a little longer. Win or lose, the Pads have not gone gentle into Dylan Thomas‘ night, and I resolve to be okay with the outcome because, a few minutes earlier, it was all but decided.

You were as good as gone, living on borrowed time. Whatever happens after coming back from the dead is gravy.

What happens, of course, is that the Nats have used seven pitchers through nine innings. Six of them were needed to record what they presumed would be the final nine outs.

The Padres, meantime, haven’t used any of their top relievers because, frankly, they haven’t been competitive at any point throughout the game. This means Bruce Bochy has Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka, and Rudy Seanez all available.

Robinson has Jon Rauch.

No disrespect to Rauch, but if you’re the Padres, you’ve got to like your chances. Sure enough, the clubs trade volleys for a while longer before the Nats eventually give in, with Rauch serving up a three-run jack to Hernandez to end it in the 12th. The crowd is going nuts, the players are going nuts, my wife and I are going nuts.

This game, which had been utterly out of reach not long ago, has inexplicably turned in the Friars’ favor and now counts in the win column. The magic number is reduced to 10.

The team is still under .500 for the season, and folks around the country still won’t give the Pads a second thought when discussing the playoffs, but here we are. It’s the middle of September and the Padres are in the drivers’ seat, inching slowly and somewhat unsteadily toward the finish line.

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (10-4, 3.97 ERA) vs Hector Carrasco (4-3, 2.19 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

magic number: 11

Color me stupid, but despite the Pads’ poor play, I’m still pumped. Sure, the turning point turned out to be more of a hiccup. And the Friars probably won’t finish with a winning record. But as of this morning, the Pads have a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs. You know what? It ain’t pretty but I’ll take it.

A Little Perspective, Please

Padres won 87 games last year, for their first winning season since their World Series appearance in 1998. I predicted that the team would duplicate that record this season. Although it may have been a bit much to expect a team coming off a 21-game improvement to maintain all of its gains, I thought it was possible. I still think it was possible, although obviously it hasn’t worked out that way.

But when you think about it, is the point of the season to finish with x number of wins? I dunno, ask the 2001 Seattle Mariners.

I submit that the real point is to get into the playoffs and, once there, make the most of your opportunity. Yeah, it’s easy to get down on this year’s club (I speak from experience), but the bottom line is they are, regardless of reasons, in good position to go to the playoffs. From there, anything can happen: certainly more than if you’re sitting at home waiting for spring training.

Nice Analysis, Pollyanna; You Got Numbers to Go with That?

Funny you should ask. Check it out:

Now the question you have to ask yourself is, would you rather be 72-74 with a 5 1/2 game lead and 96.3% chance of making the playoffs or do you prefer 68-78 with an 18 1/2 game defecit and 0% chance of making the playoffs? Look, I’m not going to make the argument that the 2005 Pads are a real good team. But when you look at the bigger picture, and when you consider that 22 teams won’t be in the playoffs this year, I’m relatively okay with things.

How about you?

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (12-6, 2.93 ERA) vs John Patterson (8-5, 2.74 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

magic number: 12

As I’m writing this, ESPN has John Halama starting for the Nats Friday, with Patterson going on Saturday. I don’t know who will get the call, but Peavy vs Patterson is a lot more compelling so we’ll assume that’s the matchup.

You may recall that Patterson once was a top prospect in the Arizona organization (thank goodness he and Brad Penny aren’t part of the Snakes rotation these days). Healthy enough to make it through his first complete big-league season, Patterson is having a breakthrough year similar to what Peavy did in 2004. Here’s the tale of the tape so far this year:

Patterson isn’t quite at Peavy’s level, but there’s no shame in that. Assuming Patterson is good to go, this should be one heckuva duel.