How High Hoffy?

by Geoff Young on Nov 29, 2005 (23) Comments

In the comments to yesterday’s review of left field, Didi informed us that the New York Mets had signed Billy Wagner to a very silly deal. With Wagner headed to the Big Apple for a reported 4 years/$43M, on top of the already large wads of cash thrown at the likes of Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry, I can’t help but wonder what the impact on Trevor Hoffman‘s price will be.

If you’re keeping score at home, here are the relievers who have signed so far:

Free Agent Relievers Who Have Signed, Plus Hoffman
Pitcher Age Yrs Amt G IP ERA K/9 K/BB BA OBP SLG
Scott Eyre 34 3 $11M 86 68.1 2.63 8.56 2.50 .200 .286 .288
Chad Harville 29 1 $525k 45 45.1 4.77 7.15 1.33 .256 .371 .452
Bobby Howry 32 3 $12M 79 73.0 2.47 5.92 3.00 .191 .237 .277
B.J. Ryan 30 5 $47M 69 70.1 2.43 12.80 3.85 .208 .284 .288
Billy Wagner 34 4 $43M 75 77.2 1.51 10.88 4.35 .165 .229 .265
Trevor Hoffman 38 - - 60 57.2 2.97 8.43 4.50 .235 .277 .344
Age is as of July 1, 2006; stats are for 2005 season.

Hoffman is older than Ryan and Wagner, and clearly nowhere near as dominant. Hoffman’s 2005 numbers aren’t all that much better than those of Eyre or Howry but of course he has 380 more career saves than they do combined.

I dunno, I’m thinking in the neighborhood of 2 years for $16M plus some kind of option for a third year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Can the Padres afford to go that high? And if they can, should they? Peter wonders if the Phillies might be interested.

And this doesn’t affect only Hoffman. Other open questions include:

  • In the current market, how much is Rudy Seanez worth? He’s older than Eyre and Howry, and has an injury history. But he’s also a more dominant pitcher. Does 2 years for $7M sound about right, and should the Padres go that high? The real value in Seanez last year was identifying him as a guy who might be worth significantly more than the $550k he made, which in fact he was.
  • Who are this winter’s versions of Seanez and Chris Hammond? We’re looking for guys who will come cheap but who have upside. Harville is a good example, although his track record is pretty mixed. I like Hector Carrasco, but I fear he’s no longer under anyone’s radar after the season he had. Is Chad Fox worth a gamble? His profile – high strikeout rates, can’t stay healthy – is similar to that of Seanez. How about Jay Powell? He used to be pretty good. Same with Felix Rodriguez, and he’s coming off a down year. Heck, Paul Quantrill did a decent job during his brief stay in San Diego; I wouldn’t mind seeing him return.

What do you think?

2005 in Review – Left Field

by Geoff Young on Nov 28, 2005 (13) Comments

If you enjoy a train ride, you can leave Solana Beach just before 7 a.m. and arrive at Santa Barbara in time for lunch. If you go on a Sunday, you can eat an excellent brunch at Eladio’s, just a few blocks from the station, toward Stearns Wharf. Then you can walk around the beach, hop back on the train, and be back home in time for a late supper.

Incidentally, this train also stops in Anaheim, right at the stadium where the Fullerton Angels of Brea play. Pay a little extra for business class so you can stretch out and relax along the way.

Further south, of course, is where the Padres play. In our continuing review of the Padres’ 2005 season, we next look at left field. Surprise, it’s not as bad as you remember.

[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS]

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO SEC RC/27
Padres left fielders .262 .361 .412 .130 .151 .309 5.40
MLB rank 24 6 18 4 20 10 16
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF
Padres left fielders .985 2.09
MLB average .984 1.94
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Eleven players appeared in at least one inning in left field for the Padres in 2005. Ryan Klesko logged about 64% of the left field innings, with Eric Young picking up another 11%. The remaining 25% were split among Xavier Nady, Damian Jackson, Ben Johnson, Adam Hyzdu, Paul McAnulty, Miguel Ojeda (don’t get me started), Robert Fick, Mark Sweeney, and Brian Giles.

Ryan Klesko

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .291 .399 .448 .152 .157 .368 6.50 127
2005 .248 .358 .418 .144 .170 .345 5.18 112
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF
Klesko .981 2.04
MLB average .984 1.94
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

I don’t have league averages for zone rating, but Klesko checked in at .864. As measured by range factor and zone rating, there was virtually no difference between Klesko and Pittsburgh’s Jason Bay last season. To me this says more about range factor and zone rating than about Klesko or Bay, but that’s a rant for another day.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

If he can stay healthy (as of this writing he was experiencing some discomfort in his throwing shoulder – not the one that was hurt before), there’s no reason to believe Klesko can’t approach the goals he’s set for himself this year (.320 batting average, 15 homers, .400 on base percentage).

Positives

  • Maintained solid plate discipline.
  • Doubled home run output from previous season.

Negatives

  • Disappeared after All-Star break (.211/.328/.323).
  • Set career lows in SLG and RC/27; lowest OPS+ since he hit .261/.334/.490 for the Braves in 1997.
  • Player without a position in a league that doesn’t use the DH.
  • Large contract, no-trade clause.

Outlook

Klesko is transforming himself into Matt Lawton without the speed or defense. That’s not exactly what you want out of a guy making the kind of money Klesko makes but it’s more useful than, say, Phil Nevin would be.

Klesko is better suited to the AL at this point in his career but isn’t likely to be moving from San Diego any time soon. However, due to physical issues and the lack of anyone else to fill the position, he probably will be moving back to first base in 2006.

Toward the end of last season, the Padres experimented with Klesko in the #2 hole, which actually wasn’t a bad idea. If he can continue to draw walks, and if he can concentrate on hitting line drives into the gaps instead of trying to yank balls out of the park, Klesko could contribute in a Lyle Overbay/Raul Ibanez kind of way.

Eric Young

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .288 .377 .381 .107 .093 .283 4.80 91
2005 .275 .356 .380 .110 .105 .282 4.42 103
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF
Young 1.000 2.52
MLB average .984 1.94
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Geoff Blum and Eric Young are the backup infielders. Both can play anywhere; Young brings a little more to the table at the plate and could spell Roberts in centerfield against lefties.

Positives

  • Maintained most of his offensive skills despite advanced age and moving from one of best hitters environments to one of worst.
  • Highest OPS+ since 2000, when he hit .297/.367/.399 as the starting second baseman for the Chicago Cubs.
  • Plays with tremendous enthusiasm and is a great influence on some of the younger guys.

Negatives

  • Spent much of the season on the DL thanks to a dislocated shoulder incurred on a spectacular catch in center field on Opening Day at Petco Park.
  • Isn’t the base stealing threat he once was.

Outlook

Young is probably the most energetic player to wear a Padres uniform since Eric Owens called San Diego home in 1999 and 2000. He is the kind of player I go to the ballpark to watch practice his craft.

Although Young’s days as a regular are well behind him, his versatility in the field, studied approach at the plate, and (uh-oh) character still make him an asset to a big-league club. Young has re-signed with the Padres for 2006 and will be asked to fill the same role he did last year, hopefully without so much time on the DL.

Happy Thanksgiving

by Geoff Young on Nov 23, 2005 (24) Comments

I spent most of my money on beer and baseball... The rest I wasted.

I picked this up at one of my favorite antique shops in Temecula. On one level, it’s stupid fun; but on another, it’s a good reminder to do the things you like (and by extension, be with the folks you like). And in my book, if you’re able to accomplish those goals, then you have every reason to be thankful.

I hope you and yours have a very happy Thanksgiving. Eat well, and enjoy time with friends and family. And if you can’t take any more football or the ramblings of a certain uncle on your mother’s side who shall remain nameless, feel free to swing by Ducksnorts and talk about whatever’s on your mind. I’m off until December 1 but I’ll be checking the comments, so if you have any ideas on topics we should discuss this off-season, maybe throw those in there as well.

See you on the flip side…

You Might Not Be Your Team’s Third Baseman of the Future if…

by Geoff Young on Nov 23, 2005 (1) Comments

2005 in Review – Shortstop

by Geoff Young on Nov 21, 2005 (26) Comments

For our 10th anniversary my wife and I are travelling around Southern California, hitting all the places we ordinarily take for granted ― Palm Springs, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Barbara, Temecula. It’s like the Cal League tour, with less baseball and more wife.

Saturday morning we drove up the mountain to Julian, stopping at Dudley’s Bakery for danishes and loaves of bread along the way. The road winds through some beautiful country and goes well with a generous helping of Jimmy Eat World’s Bleed American.

Speaking of which, if there is a better constructed pop song than “Sweetness,” I’d like to hear it. Actually, the entire album is well put together. Reliable, consistent, strong.

I’m not sure all of those words apply to Padres shortstops in 2005, but for the most part they were pretty good. And with Khalil Greene just entering his prime, shortstop shouldn’t be a concern for the Padres or their fans in the near future.

[Previous entries in this series: catcher | first base | second base | third base]

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO SEC RC/27
Padres shortstops .237 .297 .392 .069 .155 .247 4.00
MLB rank 28 26 12 14 6 11 17
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF
Padres shortstops .966 4.09
MLB average .976 4.51
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

As he has since reaching the Show late in 2003, Khalil Greene saw most of the action at shortstop for the Padres. Damian Jackson, Jesse Garcia, and Geoff Blum filled in while Greene was hurt, with Wilson Valdez and Manny Alexander also seeing some time at the position. Even Sean Burroughs played two innings. Hey, if Dave Magadan could get some time at short back in the day, why not Burroughs?

Khalil Greene

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .273 .349 .446 .096 .173 .379 5.37 112
2005 .250 .296 .431 .053 .181 .431 4.32 97
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF DP/9
Greene .971 4.14 .559
MLB average .976 4.51 .660
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Defensively Greene doesn’t have spectacular range but he has good instincts and a quick release on his throws. He also turns the double play well and doesn’t panic. Greene was one of the keys to the Padres’ big turnaround in 2004. If he stays healthy, he should build on his rookie season and be a very productive hitter at the bottom of the order, with 20+ homers a real possibility.

Positives

  • Demonstrated that power wasn’t a fluke, improving on rookie numbers.
  • Increased consistency on defense.
  • Leads by example; young but already a good clubhouse presence.

Negatives

  • Made two trips to DL.
  • Big step backward in plate discipline; some might attribute this to less time in the #8 hole, but even when he did hit in that spot, he wasn’t drawing walks (8 in 142 AB in 2005; 38 in 262 AB in 2004).
  • Showed less range in the field than he did as a rookie.

Outlook

Injuries and declining walk rates are legitimate concerns with Greene. He plays solid defense, has good pop for a middle infielder, and despite his calm demeanor is an intense competitor. His list of comparable players at the same age is all over the map, from guys like Dave Nilsson, Todd Zeile, and Jeff Kent at one end of the spectrum to the likes of Orlando Cabrera, Ernest Riles, and Neifi Perez at the other. And of course his top comp is A’s young shortstop Bobby Crosby.

On a team in transition, Greene is one of the few certainties. He already is the Padres all-time leader in home runs RBI (thanks, Pat, for the correction) at shortstop. If Greene can regain some of the plate discipline he displayed as a rookie and continue to develop his power, he could quickly vault into the top tier of shortstops. Even if he falls a little short of those heights, he’ll be a fixture in San Diego for years to come.

Nady for Cameron – Part 3

by Geoff Young on Nov 16, 2005 (67) Comments

This may come as a shock to those who know me, because I am one of the biggest Xavier Nady supporters around, but I actually like this deal for the Padres. My first choice would have been to give Nady a shot to play everyday, but it was pretty apparent to folks who watched the club last year that getting him in the lineup wasn’t exactly a priority. Given that fact, flipping him for a part that Bruce Bochy presumably will find a way to use made perfect sense.

In Mike Cameron, the Padres get their first legitimate center fielder since Mark Kotsay was shipped to Oakland following the 2003 season. Cameron had been courted by the Padres following Kotsay’s departure but preferred to play on the East Coast, forcing the Friars to settle for Jay Payton. Neither Payton nor his successor, Dave Roberts, was particularly well suited to play center field in Petco Park’s spacious outfield.

Cameron has posted an OPS+ of 104 or more each of the past 7 seasons. His high during that period is 124 (he hit .267/.353/.480 for Seattle in 2001), so he isn’t great but he’s consistently above average. Cameron strikes out a ton but draws his share of walks. He also has good power for center field, knocking 25+ homers on three separate occasions and sporting a career ISO of .193 (that’s a tick below guys like Mike Sweeney and Miguel Tejada).

Cameron’s list of comparable players through age 32 is solid but not great. His most comparable player, former Padre Ruppert Jones, was finished at that age. Darrell Evans went on to hit 230 more home runs. Others such as Dave Henderson, Ron Gant, and Howard Johnson had varying degrees of success.

Bottom line? The Padres appeared reluctant to use Nady in an everyday capacity. He’s still only 27 years old, so it’s too early to give up and relegate him to a utility role. Hopefully he’ll get a shot in New York to show what he can do. Personally, I’d love to see him go Jason Bay on the world because, well, I’ve been following Nady for a long time and want him to do well. But even if he doesn’t end up being the player I think he can be, I hope he at least gets the opportunity he deserves and couldn’t seem to get in San Diego.

On the flip side, if Cameron is healthy, he helps cover the gaps at Petco Park and gives the Padres a fairly proven right-handed power option. Yeah, he adds a lot to the payroll, but I have to believe the Padres see the writing on the wall with Brian Giles and are prepared to let him walk in a year where the weak free agent crop tips the scales against teams that aren’t willing to shell out big bucks for less than top shelf talent, let alone someone like Giles.

I think the deal is pretty even talentwise in the short run, with Cameron filling a greater need for the Padres than Nady would have. Factor in that the Padres apparently weren’t willing to use Nady, and I’m okay with this. I look forward to seeing what a legitimate center fielder (no offense to Roberts, who was a pleasant surprise to me this season but who really is a fourth outfielder) can do at Petco Park, and I’ll continue to root for Nady in a Mets uniform.

Except, of course, when he plays the Padres. ;-)

Nady for Cameron – Part 2

by Geoff Young on Nov 16, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

This is the collage piece of things I’ve written about Xavier Nady over the years. Welcome Mets fans and anyone else wondering who the heck Nady is.

Looking for other people’s reactions? You want this entry. Looking for my commentary? Hang on, I haven’t written it yet. Okay, now I have.

Xavier Nady takes a rip in the on-deck circle at Lake Elsinore

At his peak, Nady should develop into a .280+ hitter with 30-35 homer power. If he remains at second, Nady could be a Jeff Kent-type run producer. If he moves to first base or left field, he’ll still be a darned good offensive player but probably not in the elite ranks that he could join at a more offense-deficient position. Regardless, Nady has the potential to be a solid big-league regular for years to come, with a few All-Star Game appearances a good possibility. (11 Aug 2001))

There’s an interesting discussion going on over at a Padre message board I recently discovered (in the sense that Columbus “discovered” America) about Nady’s upside. The names being thrown out for comparison are Pat Burrell, Paul Konerko, and Dean Palmer. These all seem like reasonable comps to me. Konerko is probably the one that Nady reminds me most of from an approach standpoint.

The potential downside of Nady? I was leafing through some old Sickels books the other night and discovered a disturbing similarity between Nady’s line at Elsinore at age 22 and that of former Angel and Padre third baseman George Arias in the same park at the same age 7 years earlier. Lest we be quick to dismiss this concern, recall that Arias came from a major university program and was very well regarded as a prospect — at least as well regarded as Nady is now. (28 Jun 2002)

If he can lick the injuries and build on what he accomplished during the final two months of last season, expect Nady to arrive in San Diego sometime around the All-Star break [2003]. Although he may not put up big numbers right away, he’ll eventually be a force in the middle of the order. The peak of .280 with 30+ homers I projected for him last year still sounds about right to me. (15 Jan 2003)

Before the injury to Phil Nevin, Nady was slated to spend the year at Portland. Instead, he was pushed to learn a new position at the big-league level. He started out strong, failed to adjust when the league figured him out, went back to Triple-A, and finished strong with the big club. Nady’s career path has been a little skewed due to his own injuries and those of others, but take a look at how he compares with another guy who came up relatively late and blossomed in his second season:

    AB  BA OBP SLG ISO
XN 371 267 321 391 124
MO 535 282 326 415 133

 XB/H BB/K AB/HR OPS+
  273  324  41.2  92
  272  528  38.2  93

MO is Magglio Ordonez and hit .301/.349/.510 the following year, with 31 homers. No two players follow the same path, of course, but Nady has had success in the past and it’s not unreasonable to think that given 550 at-bats he could post a .285ish BA, 825ish OPS, and 25 or so jacks. That’s about what Nady’s numbers would look like if he took a similar jump to that made by Ordonez at age 25. Will it happen? Who knows. But I like Nady’s chances more than his 712 OPS as a rookie ordinarily would warrant. (9 Jan 2004)

I still believe that Nady is good enough to play every day. But right now what the numbers tell me is that he’s good enough to abuse bad pitching, and the jury is out on the rest. (We’re looking at who Nady has had the most success against, not how he’s fared against all pitchers.) Viewing things in that light, I can at least understand Bruce Bochy’s reluctance to expose his young slugger to some of the league’s better pitchers. (22 Aug 2005)

Nady for Cameron – Part 1

by Geoff Young on Nov 16, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Okay, I’m going to fire off three separate entries on the Xavier Nady for Mike Cameron deal that apparently is going to happen (pending a physical of Cameron to make sure his eyesight is okay after his horrendous collision with Carlos Beltran at Petco Park this past season).

The first one is just pretty much a linkfest to other sources without commentary. The second one will be sort of a collage piece of things I’ve written about Nady over the years to help Mets fans and other curious folk. And the last one will be commentary, or what passes for such around these parts.

Ready? Go!

[Update 17 Nov 2005, 7:08 a.m. PT]

Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Nov 16, 2005 (16) Comments

So nobody wanted to talk about the mess that was third base last year, and who can blame ‘em? Let’s see if we can come up with some less embarrassing topics for discussion today.

  • Steroid penalties much tougher with agreement. In case you missed it, under the new proposal (it still needs to be ratified by MLB and the union), first-time offenders get a 50-game suspension, second-timers get 100 games, and a third strike carries a lifetime ban.
  • David Pinto weighs in on the subject, and El Lefty Malo provides an interesting quote about amphetamines from Braves catcher Johnny Estrada.
  • I’ve always been more or less agnostic on the whole steroids thing. I don’t know if that was a head-in-sand reaction on my part or what, but my position changed after hearing Dr. Andy Andres talk about their effect at the First Pitch Arizona symposium. His was the first discussion of steroids in baseball I’d heard that wasn’t littered with rhetoric. Dr. Andres, who teaches a class on sabermetrics at Tufts University, holds a Ph.D. in Nutritional Biochemistry and Physiology and approached the subject from a medical standpoint. Fascinating stuff, and I’m now pretty well convinced there is a problem with steroids in baseball.
  • Moving on, Padres prosepct Sean Thompson gets a little giddy while waiting for baseball to return (Scout.com). We’re with you, Sean.
  • In Lyle Spencer’s latest mailbag at Padres.com he answers questions about Kenji Jojima, Jacque Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Jarrod Washburn, Josh Barfield, Carl Crawford, and more.
  • Catching Up With Mr. Talented (Sports Central). Sara Normand has a solid interview with Padres prospect Matt Lauderdale, who in addition to his catching duties is “interested in architecture and design.” Lauderdale talks a lot about non-baseball stuff in this one, and it makes for a refreshing read.
  • Ed Barnes and Brian Wilmer at The Writers have been doing some fantastic podcasts, including their latest with Diamondbacks prospect Carlos Quentin. The Chula Vista native and USDHS (Mark Prior, Barry Zito, a chick I dated in college) grad talks about his experience at Stanford, his approach at the plate, and what it will take to get to the next level. It’s a good listen, and I’m not just saying that so they’ll have me on the show. ;-)

Tunes: Howie Day, Hapa, Bad Religion, They Might Be Giants, AiM, Rush, Bel Canto, Dead Can Dance, Elliott Smith, This Mortal Coil.

2005 in Review – Third Base

by Geoff Young on Nov 14, 2005 (4) Comments

Ah, third base. You say hot corner, I say black hole. Let’s call the whole thing off. It’s possible that the situation could have been worse for the Padres in 2005, but I’m hard pressed to imagine how. With what’s lined up for next year, we may yet find out.

[Previous entries in this series: catcher | first base | second base]

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO SEC RC/27
Padres second basemen .254 .319 .365 .076 .111 .205 4.03
MLB rank 24 21 28 19 29 27 23
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF
Padres third basemen .960 2.64
MLB average .958 2.77
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Sean Burroughs began the season as the starter but with his offensive production continuing in free fall, the Padres brought in veteran Joe Randa, who garnered most of the playing time down the stretch. In between, World Series hero Geoff Blum also saw action at third base, providing some of the best defense the Pads offered there in 2005. Damian Jackson, Xavier Nady, Robert Fick, Manny Alexander, and Mark Loretta round out the cast of thousands that played third for the Friars.

Sean Burroughs

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .298 .348 .365 .055 .067 .179 4.57 92
2005 .250 .318 .299 .076 .049 .141 3.13 71
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF DP/9
Burroughs .962 2.80 .219
MLB average .958 2.77 .188
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

I expected Burroughs to make steady progress last year before breaking out in 2005. Well, he didn’t exactly improve his game, but I still look for him to step up this year. The difference is, now he pretty much has to in order to remain a part of the Pads’ long-term plans.

Positives

  • Good defender; quick reactions, plus range, soft hands, increasingly accurate arm.
  • Still very young.

Negatives

  • Hit for no power; not worried about homers but with his size and the large gaps at Petco Park, he should be hitting 35+ doubles a year.
  • Rest of offensive game deteriorated as well; pulled the ball so infrequently that opponents usually stationed left fielder in and near the line so that balls which otherwise might fall for singles or doubles would be caught.

Outlook

Burroughs is at a crossroads and appears to have worn out his welcome in San Diego. He has terrific athletic ability but has had trouble translating tools into usable skills. He is still young enough to turn his career around but he shouldn’t be regressing offensively at this stage.

The lack of power is particulary alarming. Over the past two seasons, more than 83% of Burroughs’ hits have been singles. That’s slightly higher than Juan Pierre‘s percentage (82) over that same period. If you play center field, hit for a high batting average, and steal 50+ bases a year, you can get away with that for a while and call it a decent career. If you play third base and hit .250, you can be the new Wayne Krenchicki.

Joe Randa

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .287 .343 .408 .074 .121 .295 5.02 100
2005 .276 .335 .452 .077 .176 .405 5.44 105
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF DP/9
Randa .967 2.47 .156
MLB average .958 2.77 .188
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Randa’s numbers include his time with the Padres and the Reds. With the Pads he hit just .256/.303/.395. His defensive numbers also took a nosedive: .955 FPct, 2.19 RF, .146 DP/9.

Expectations

None. Didn’t begin the season in San Diego.

Positives

  • Slight power upgrade over Burroughs.
  • Killer smile.

Negatives

  • After hitting well in Cincy, regressed to 2001 version on coming to San Diego; batting average and power numbers were disappointing.
  • Mediocre defense; inferior reliability and range compared to Burroughs and Geoff Blum.
  • Cost two good (not great) pitching prospects.

Outlook

With Vinny Castilla coming over from Washington (as well as Justin Leone from Seattle), Randa won’t be back with the Padres in 2006. But as one of the few “name” third basemen available in a weak free-agent crop, Randa will land a starting gig somewhere and likely will be overpaid on the basis of the solid numbers he posted in Cincy before his trade to San Diego.

Geoff Blum

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .215 .266 .348 .065 .133 .397 3.10 61
2005 .229 .296 .345 .080 .116 .315 3.38 74
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct RF DP/9
Blum .950 3.27 .255
MLB average .958 2.77 .188
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Blum’s numbers include time with the Padres and the White Sox. With the Friars, he hit .241/.321/.375. At third base, he had a .965 FPct, 3.20 RF, and .274 DP/9. He basically was a better defensive version of Randa who also could play other positions and who didn’t cost the Padres two pitching prospects.

Expectations

Generic backup infielder.

Positives

  • Versatile; did a great job filling in for Khalil Greene at shortstop early in season.
  • Decent pop in his bat.
  • Cool first name.

Negatives

  • Poor plate discipline.
  • Poor range at second base and shortstop.
  • Productivity decreased as playing time increased.

Outlook

Traded to White Sox for minor league LHP Ryan Meaux, Blum hit the winning homer in Game 3 of the World Series. Blum, who lives in Southern California and whose wife gave birth to triplets during the season, is a free agent who would like to sign somewhere closer to home, possibly with the Padres.