Playoff IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (4 Oct 2005)
Tue, Oct 4, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 10:05 a.m., PT
television: ESPN
matchup: Jake Peavy vs Chris Carpenter
preview: Yahoo!
The moment we have all been waiting for is finally upon us. For the first time since October 21, 1998, the Padres are playing a post-season game. And thanks to the brilliant minds that run our national pasttime, it will be broadcast live on local television at 10 o’clock on a Tuesday morning.
Whether you are a Cardinals fan checking out Ducksnorts to get the dirt on your team’s playoff opponent, or your team’s season has come to an end and you’re curious to find out what all the fuss is about this baseball team that some feel is not playoff worthy, or you’ve been suffering all year long (and, in some cases, much longer) with these Padres of San Diego, I bid you welcome. And I promise that that last sentence was as pretentious as it ever gets around these parts.
As we do every game, we’ll be chatting about the contest and anything else that comes to mind. The structure is pretty loose. Add something if you feel like it, don’t if you don’t. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy your stay.
Okay, so if you work weird hours and are near a TV for this one, maybe tell us what’s happening. The pitching matchup for Game 1 has the potential to be brilliant:
Peavy vs Carpenter
Here’s how the two staff aces compare over all their starts this season.
| Pitcher | IP/GS | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 | #P/IP | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peavy | 6.77 | 2.88 | 7.18 | 2.22 | 9.58 | 0.80 | 15.6 | 61.4 |
| Carpenter | 7.32 | 2.83 | 7.61 | 1.90 | 7.95 | 0.67 | 14.1 | 61.4 |
Peavy is more of a power pitcher, which means he can be very dominant but also that he isn’t as efficient as Carpenter nor does he go as deep into games. Interesting that their average game scores are identical.
How about their best and worst starts of the season? Here is the composite of the top 10 game scores for each this year:
| Pitcher | IP/GS | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 | #P/IP | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peavy | 7.90 | 0.45 | 4.20 | 1.48 | 9.32 | 0.00 | 13.8 | 79.1 |
| Carpenter | 8.42 | 0.53 | 3.95 | 1.28 | 8.87 | 0.43 | 12.8 | 81.4 |
These are just sick numbers. Peavy’s best start of the season came June 20 at home against the Dodgers (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 SO); Carpenter’s came less than a week before (June 14) at Toronto (9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 SO). If both guys are on their game, this could be a classic postseason pitchers duel. Slight advantage to Carpenter.
And their 10 worst starts?
| Pitcher | IP/GS | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 | #P/IP | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peavy | 5.80 | 6.57 | 10.80 | 2.82 | 9.23 | 1.72 | 17.9 | 42.5 |
| Carpenter | 5.65 | 7.33 | 12.42 | 3.66 | 7.96 | 1.27 | 16.8 | 38.1 |
When these guys explode, each does it in his own way. Peavy maintains his high strikeout numbers but becomes susceptible to the gopher ball. Carpenter, on the other hand, becomes eminently hittable and loses his control. Peavy’s lows aren’t quite as low as Carpenter’s.
Peavy’s worst start: July 21 at the Mets (5 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 4 SO); Carpenter’s worst: April 10 at the Phillies (3.1 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 2 BB, 2 SO).
Pitchers vs Hitters
Peavy has held current Cardinals hitters to a .230/.309/.391 line over 70 at-bats. Mark Grudzielanek (.455/.455/.727 in 11 AB) and Albert Pujols (.556/.667/1.000 in 9 AB) have done the bulk of the damage.
Current Padres hitters sport a line of .255/.297/.396 against Carpenter over 149 at-bats. Joe Randa (.281/.281/.563 in 32 AB) and Brian Giles (.313/.353/.500 in 16 AB) have had marginal success, as have Mark Sweeney and Robert Fick in very small samples.
Umpire
Ed Montague will call balls and strikes in Game 1. I don’t know what stock anyone puts into umpire stats (thanks to dprat for providing the link), but here are Montague’s numbers for the year:
G Inn RA BA OBP SLG Str%
Montague 33 597.1 5.48 .281 .342 .452 .630
Montague’s run total is highest among the 61 umpires who worked 30 or more games behind the plate in 2005. The batting average and SLG are also tops, while OBP checks in at #4. The percentage of pitches that were strikes is about middle of the pack. Like I said, I don’t know how much this really comes into play, but there it is.
Numbers Don’t Lie; People Who Use Numbers Lie
Thanks to Brian G. for updating us on the status of Dave Roberts, Winning Machine, in yesterday’s comments. If you missed it (and what’s your excuse?), here’s the deal: “The Padres are 58-43 (.574) when Dave Roberts starts.” Indications are that Roberts will be in the lineup Tuesday morning. Sweet.
Handy Stuff at Padres.com
I’m trying to pack a lot of info in here today, so not much commentary on these.
- Padres facts and figures
- Padres monthly recap. Winning months were May, August, and September.
- Cardinals-Padres: Quick hits. Likes the Cards in four.
- Cards, Padres reach expectations
- Peavy ready for Game 1 assignment. I’m very excited for Peavy. I don’t think people around the country have a clue how good this guy is. If he brings his A game to the table (and he usually does), folks are in for a real treat.
Cardinals Takes
Several Cardinals bloggers have gotten together and posted a roundtable discussion of their first-round playoff series against the Padres:
- Part 1 (Viva El Birdos)
- Part 2 (CardNilly)
- Part 3 (bellyitcher)
- Part 4 (Get Up, Baby!)
- Part 5 (The Birdwatcher)
- Part 6 (Cardinals Diaspora)
Two take-home lessons: First, there is some really well-considered discussion here. Second, we need more Padres bloggers. 
And of course, a Padres win this morning is mandatory. So grab a cup of coffee and hang out with us. These are good times.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 4, 2005 at 6:02 am
Another who likes the Pads in 5:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
October 4, 2005 at 6:39 am
From Buster Olney:
Division Series: Boston beats the White Sox, 3 games to 2; Angels beat the Yankees, 3 games to 1; Houston over Atlanta, 3 games to 2; Padres over St. Louis, 3 games to 2.
Championship Series: Angels over Boston in six games, Houston over San Diego in five games.
World Series: The Angels over the Astros in six games. The Most Valuable Player: John Lackey.
ONLY 3.5 hours ’til gametime!!!!! There’s no way I’m going to be completely focused at work today.
October 4, 2005 at 6:56 am
Thanks for the link, Geoff. D’Albenzio says “EVEN” at 2b and SS. That’s very interesting. Every other analysis I’ve read gives the Cards the edge at those positions. I think I would give the Cards edge at SS for the following reasons:
1) Eckstein: proven commodity in the playoffs, consisten performer during the season. He’s a .300 hitter in 80 postseason ABs.
2) Eckstein had a better season then Greene, plain and simple — he hit .294 and struck out only 44 times in 630 ABs. He scored 90 runs and drove in 61.
I love KG, and I really hope he comes through, but at this point, Eckstein is a better SS.
October 4, 2005 at 7:23 am
Woody, not Eaton, gets Game 3:
http://www.nctimes.com/article.....200201.txt
October 4, 2005 at 8:16 am
10 am start. There has got to be a TV that gets ESPN around this building somewhere. Maybe in a lab somewhere. Time to start hunting.
Remember in 98, watching the Pads beat the Atl in a Lab at Qualcomm. Tiny little TV and about 50 Eng geeks trying not to make too much noise. Ah, the salad days.
in 84, remember watching every pitch at Montys at SDSU, another early game, with a beer or five in my hand. Thats when Montys served beer. (PS, i did manage to graduate)
My daughter’s math teacher has promised to have the game on TV. Bless his heart.
Of course, my wife, and probably yours, is oblivious to this important moment in SD sports history and she’s at home with two TVs.
I feel a sore throat coming on, Cough, cough.
October 4, 2005 at 8:20 am
PM - you must be contageous … cough, cough … I think I can hang on for about another hour and 40 minutes … cough … cough
October 4, 2005 at 8:20 am
Woody is starting game 3? We have four-five better starters than Williams…
October 4, 2005 at 8:29 am
Crap, the TVs in the meeting rooms don’t get anything. Don’t the Eexecs at corporate headquarters understand whats going on? Oh, wait, they are in Ohio and thier teams didn’t make the playoff, although the Indians came close.
Is there a sports bar in RB? Oh right, next to the shuffle board courts.
The pisser is I’m facing north and can’t get radio either. Guess its Gameday and IGD. Love the IGD, but want to see the Pads introduced. At least I have a computer.
October 4, 2005 at 8:39 am
Less than 90 minutes… sorry to hear about you guys that can’t see the game. One of the joys of self-employment…I’m really busy with “meetings” from 10am till at least 1 pm today. My Thursday is looking quite crowded in the afternoon as well.
Let’s go boys…it’s time to shock the world and show that we belong.
October 4, 2005 at 8:48 am
Anybody taping the game for later use?
October 4, 2005 at 8:51 am
Keep us informed Mark, love to hear how the announcers trash the Padres, which I’m sure they will. Just like the Chargers at no chance in NE. Ha!!!
October 4, 2005 at 9:02 am
Tho’ I cursed my fate at the time, working some weekends on a project last month is now paying off BIG TIME! I’m walking outta the office in 45 minutes, driving home, and sitting my ass down in front of the TV at home - alone - no interruptions (gotta be back by 1:30, so no extra innings today, please). Damn, is it time yet? I got me them playoff butterflies…LET’S GO!
October 4, 2005 at 9:11 am
Dayn Perry at BP (one of their best writers, by the way, and also a huge Cardinal fan) has an analysis of the Padres/Cardinals series today. Here’s the last paragraph:
“Prediction
The presence of Jake Peavy, the extra day of rest and the downward spiraling of Chris Carpenter mean this is very much a series. The Pads take both of Peavy’s starts, but the other San Diego starters and that porous defense can’t keep runs off the board. St. Louis in five.”
October 4, 2005 at 9:18 am
Can I go see the game with you, Dprat?
Man, lucky you. Enjoy!
Let us know if the announcers are being down on the Padres.
I’m a bit worried about the defense. Here’s hoping Ben Johnson gets in the game. And X coming off the bench to mash the winning run in.
Getting goosebumps, already. Let’s go Padres!
October 4, 2005 at 9:23 am
Heard the cafateria has cable TV. Hurray!!! Snack time coming up. Also heard of a secret watering hole here in RB. Might be eating lunch out today.
Gee drat, must be nice. Could have easily called in sick today, didn’t cross my small mind though. Shows the rut I’m in:). Go Padres!
BTW, how pathetic is the once mighty Dodger organization? Plasche rips them a new one in the LATimes today. What happened to that once classy baseball org? Where have you gone Mr. O’Malley?
October 4, 2005 at 9:32 am
My favorite place to “vote” for individual honors (MVP, Cy Young, ROY) is at BP … here’s a pointer …
Baseball Prospectus is once again proud to host the Internet Baseball Awards.
Vote today on the four major postseason awards in each league, and be entered into a drawing for a free year on BP Premium access! Voting ends October 12, so make your voice heard today!
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/iba/
October 4, 2005 at 9:51 am
Man…I can’t wait for this game to start. As for the prediction of Dayn Perry…I think that’s at least a fair prediction as opposed to the ones who are saying Cards in 3 games. I still think that people are overlooking how well Astacio has pitched and we very well could win both games in St. Louis.
Surprisingly…Morgan and Miller..keeping it pretty balanced in the preview..
October 4, 2005 at 9:56 am
The best broadcaster in his price-range. Joe Morgan, OTOH, well, he’s a baseball elitest so I guess he as a right to be arrogant.
October 4, 2005 at 9:56 am
Snack Time!
October 4, 2005 at 9:56 am
Okay, I’ve got the coffee fired up and a bowl of corn flakes ready to go. Bring on the baseball.
I’m glad we get Morgan and Miller. A lot of statheads give Morgan grief but I really enjoy listening to those two.
October 4, 2005 at 9:59 am
Kruk and Reynolds on baseball tonight both picking the Padres to win today.
October 4, 2005 at 10:00 am
Pads: Roberts cf, Klesko lf, Loretta 2b, Giles rf, Sweeney 1b, Hernandez c, Greene ss, Randa 3b, Peavy p
Cards: Eckstein ss, Edmonds cf, Pujols 1b, Walker rf, Sanders lf, Grudz 2b, Nunez 3b, Molina c, Carpenter p
Give Bochy credit for keeping Klesko in the #2 hole. Also, I believe this is the first time the Padres have used this particular lineup all year.
October 4, 2005 at 10:02 am
I can’t stand Morgan.
But anyway, I’m watching the game here in D.C. It’s 1 p.m., I work night, plus I’m off today anyway. But I had a wreck this morning, so I need something good to do now.
I don’t know how much I will come downstairs to give updates. Maybe Richard or dprat can carry the load.
Let’s go, Jake.
October 4, 2005 at 10:03 am
I’ll be here as well for updates..
Joe Morgan saying that he believes that the Padres do have a chance to win this series.
October 4, 2005 at 10:03 am
Morgan: “Jake Peavy is capable of cutting down on any lineup.” Damn straight he is.
October 4, 2005 at 10:04 am
Wow, a new lineup for the playoff.
Indeed, this is a new day.
Let’s play ball!
October 4, 2005 at 10:04 am
I’m at home watching, BTW. I’ll be here all morning.
October 4, 2005 at 10:05 am
Man…is there anything cooler than watching your team in the playoffs?
October 4, 2005 at 10:06 am
Well, the past couple weeks is the first time the team has all been healthy, so the lineup looks good. If the Padres do win the series, everyone will say it’s a huge upset, but this is a 90-win team that had a bunch of injuries.
October 4, 2005 at 10:08 am
Let’s get it on…
October 4, 2005 at 10:11 am
Damn, caf TV doesn’t get ESPN, its off to the watering hole, no beer, I promise. Go PAdres!
October 4, 2005 at 10:12 am
Why is Lo batting 3rd?
October 4, 2005 at 10:12 am
Roberts lines sharply to Walker in right on a breaking ball. Good swing, but one out.
October 4, 2005 at 10:13 am
I’m going to try to avoid following over here, because I’m still working on my playoff preview. But I’m one of the few writers… probably anywhere… that’s picking you guys to upset the Cardinals. So don’t make me look bad and get it done! Go Pads.
October 4, 2005 at 10:13 am
Joe Morgan– the curveball isnt’ as sharp as it should be
October 4, 2005 at 10:13 am
Joe Morgan– the curveball isnt’ as sharp as it should be
October 4, 2005 at 10:13 am
Carpenter looks beatable. His curve ball isn’t moving, and he’s missing with location.
October 4, 2005 at 10:14 am
Walk to Klesko..
October 4, 2005 at 10:14 am
Klesko walks.
October 4, 2005 at 10:15 am
C’mon boys..lets get one in the first..
October 4, 2005 at 10:15 am
Wow. How is Loretta looking in the box?
October 4, 2005 at 10:15 am
Morgan talking about Carpenter’s effect on the running game. Of course, Pads don’t run.
October 4, 2005 at 10:16 am
He doesn’t look very comfortable…his swing looks bad
October 4, 2005 at 10:16 am
Zone’s a little tight considering there’s a Cy Young candidate on the mound. That’s encouraging.
October 4, 2005 at 10:16 am
Well, if you can’t hit the ball anymore, walk. Right on Klesko!
October 4, 2005 at 10:17 am
Zone is very tight…
October 4, 2005 at 10:18 am
Easy fly to center. Loretta battled. Let’s go Gilly.
October 4, 2005 at 10:18 am
Loretta doesn’t belong in the top 3 of the batting order. Boch is a little off.
October 4, 2005 at 10:18 am
If nothing else…Carpenter has thrown a boat load of pitches here in the first
October 4, 2005 at 10:19 am
That one did break… Nothing in the first.
October 4, 2005 at 10:20 am
generous strike 3 call on Giles..considering Carpenter was all over the park with his control in that inning..
October 4, 2005 at 10:20 am
Interesting call on strike three to Giles. Looked a little low to me. Carpenter gets through the first with 23 pitches.
October 4, 2005 at 10:20 am
Giles struck out looking? How can that be?
October 4, 2005 at 10:21 am
The irony of the walk leader caught looking at ta third strike. Ouch.
October 4, 2005 at 10:21 am
Let’s go, Jake!
October 4, 2005 at 10:22 am
2 pitches..1 out…fly ball to Klesko
October 4, 2005 at 10:22 am
Anyone else wearing ‘98 gear today? I’ve got the NL Champions shirt working.
October 4, 2005 at 10:23 am
Mike, that’s because Giles generally doesn’t swing at balls out of the zone.
October 4, 2005 at 10:23 am
That last pitch to Giles was definitely low.
October 4, 2005 at 10:23 am
Geez, how did that get out? Come to Petco sometime.
October 4, 2005 at 10:24 am
Damn. A HR!
October 4, 2005 at 10:24 am
Edmonds HR to left..1-0 Cards
October 4, 2005 at 10:24 am
OUCH!!!
October 4, 2005 at 10:25 am
Good news is that Peavy looks good other than the 1 pitch..
October 4, 2005 at 10:26 am
No panic. Peavy made one bad pitch and Edmonds hammered it. Peavy has the good stuff going today. He got Pujols on a weak grounder to short and abused Walker to end the inning.
October 4, 2005 at 10:27 am
The good news is then, the Padres will be able to hit HR as well.
October 4, 2005 at 10:27 am
10 pitches, 1 HR, no balls. What did Edmond hit, a fastball? Was it a mistake pitch.
October 4, 2005 at 10:27 am
Peavy didn’t throw a ball in that inning, did he…
October 4, 2005 at 10:28 am
Looked like a fastball out over the plate and Edmonds hammered it to left..
October 4, 2005 at 10:28 am
Not sure what type of pitch, but it was pretty much down the middle and didn’t move.
October 4, 2005 at 10:30 am
C’mon Albert, keep jawing. Get tossed.
October 4, 2005 at 10:30 am
Sweeney beats out a grounder to first… looked to me like he was out.
October 4, 2005 at 10:30 am
Not over the plate…it was low & outside…a strike, but on the edge…give Edmonds credit.
October 4, 2005 at 10:31 am
Carpender is up to 27 pitches, 15 strikes, 12 balls. Glad to see us working the pitch count.
October 4, 2005 at 10:31 am
Sweeney was quite out.
October 4, 2005 at 10:31 am
Sweeney beats out a grounder to first… looked to me like he was out.
October 4, 2005 at 10:31 am
Yep, I think we caught a break there.
And we just caught another. Let’s take advantage.
October 4, 2005 at 10:32 am
Sweeney was definitely out…but good break for Ramon as Eckstein misses a line drive.. 2 on …no one out
October 4, 2005 at 10:33 am
How bout Randa playing the role of Jim Leyritz from ‘98 this year..
October 4, 2005 at 10:34 am
Carpenter seems to be finding his curve ball.
Admin note: There is, understandably, a longer than normal lag time on comments. Hang tight.
October 4, 2005 at 10:34 am
Pitching round Randa, how’s jake at the plate?
October 4, 2005 at 10:35 am
6-4-3 double play.. damn
October 4, 2005 at 10:35 am
Damn, does Randa do *anything* other than hit into DPs?
October 4, 2005 at 10:35 am
Hate to say, but that is three LOBs already. Crap!
October 4, 2005 at 10:35 am
He plays a roughly average third base.
October 4, 2005 at 10:36 am
Did Greene swing at the first pitch?
October 4, 2005 at 10:36 am
That only took Carp 12 pitches.
October 4, 2005 at 10:37 am
yes…I think Greene did swing at the first pitch.
October 4, 2005 at 10:37 am
Khalil did swing at the first pitch. I was fooled by the swing, thought it had a chance to find the gap.
October 4, 2005 at 10:38 am
Man…Peavy looks good..
October 4, 2005 at 10:38 am
Wow, Jake has yet to throw a ball. Impressive.
October 4, 2005 at 10:39 am
Book on Sanders hasn’t changed in 14 years.
October 4, 2005 at 10:39 am
Jake is on. We won’t need to score many, but we will need some.
October 4, 2005 at 10:40 am
Greene’s plate discipline has been a disappointment this year.
October 4, 2005 at 10:40 am
Peavy sounds like he’s on. Nunez just got a hit. C’mon Jake, shut ‘em down!
October 4, 2005 at 10:41 am
Nunez hit a good pitch…just slapped it through the 5.5 hole..
Octo