Playoff Roster Decisions
Fri, Sep 30, 2005
by Geoff Young
In Thursday’s comments, dprat pointed to John Maffei’s take on the playoff roster. Here is his “best-guess scenario” along with my reactions:
P: Jake Peavy, Adam Eaton, Woody Williams, Pedro Astacio, Brian Lawrence, Akinori Otsuka, Rudy Seanez, Scott Linebrink, Clay Hensley, Trevor Hoffman
I think he has this about right. I would set up the staff roughly as follows:
Games 1 and 4: Peavy
Games 2 and 5: Astacio
Game 3: Hensley (my guess is Bochy will go with the veteran Williams, although the skipper hasn’t ruled out the possibility of starting Hensley)
Hoffman gets the ninth, Linebrink the eighth, and Seanez the seventh. If Hensley doesn’t start, he could share setup duties with Seanez. That leaves Eaton, Lawrence, and Otsuka as long men.
With guys like Eaton and Lawrence available in the bullpen, Bochy can afford to go with just 10 pitchers on the staff. Either one of those guys could be summoned early in Game 3 if Hensley or Williams struggles out of the gate.
C: Ramon Hernandez, Miguel Olivo
Get Ramon rested and ready to go for the playoffs. Olivo is a capable backup, although he might not even get an at-bat.
INF: Khalil Greene, Mark Loretta, Joe Randa, Mark Sweeney, Sean Burroughs
Everybody is finally healthy at the same time. Sweeney gets the bulk of the time at 1B, with Nady possibly starting against Mark Mulder?
OF: Ryan Klesko, Brian Giles, Dave Roberts, Ben Johnson
Roberts is a gamer; despite the recent injuries, he’ll be good to go in center. Giles is a given in right. It will be interesting to see what Bochy does in left. Klesko is hitting .213/.330/.329 since the All-Star break. He’s not out there for his glove. Johnson is hitting just .229 on the year but 12 of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases. He also possesses the only legit arm among Padres outfielders and probably hasn’t been as well scouted by the Cardinals and Braves. I’d lean toward getting Johnson in the lineup as much as possible and hope for lightning in a bottle. The Padres will need to take some chances in the playoffs. This is a good place to take one.
UT: Eric Young, Robert Fick, Xavier Nady, Damian Jackson
No arguments here, although I don’t ever want to see anyone other than Greene at shortstop. Young is versatile, Fick is a good left-handed bat off the bench, and Nady has some right-handed pop but isn’t real well suited to a bench role.
Those are some of my thoughts. Other ideas?
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September 30, 2005 at 5:23 am
FYI everyone, Boch indicates in the article below that he’ll probably go with 11 pitchers:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
I guess the odd man out here would probably be Burroughs. I’d think they’d want to keep Ben Johnson on the roster.
September 30, 2005 at 6:53 am
Well, regardless of the decision of who the last man is, you have to like the depth. I mean, we have a lot of guys that can play multiple positions capably. That will give Bochy some flexibility to go with the hot hand. That is, of course, provided that someone does indeed get hot.
I’m thinking prime candidates are Giles, Loretta and Sweeney. Of course, I’d take Hernandez or Greene in the clutch any day. So, yeah, maybe the entire team will get hot.
Everyone think that Sweeney will get most of the PT at 1B?
September 30, 2005 at 7:12 am
Nick, I think it’s got to be Sweeney at 1B. Fick offers more flexibility off the bench and Nady is sort of in limbo. I wonder if Klesko will get any time there in the series against the Dodgers to see if he’s of any use there. But I think Sweeney is probably a better option. As long as he doesn’t have to make any throws, I’ll be happy.
I don’t know why you’d need 11 pitchers in a 5-game series but whatever. I agree that Johnson probably has a leg up on the last position spot. He has some power and is about the only guy who can make strong throws from the outfield.
September 30, 2005 at 7:34 am
I think I’d like to see Burroughs on the roster over an extra pitcher as well. I mean the guy’s only hitting .250, but I just keep going back to that GW 2B in SF.
He mentioned after the game that it’s the most relaxed he’s felt all year. As silly as it sounds, you need guys like that playing (or at least backing up) in the postseason.
I’d take him over Breslow. And, heck, Burroughs can pitch too, right?? Ha ha
September 30, 2005 at 9:38 am
The absolute HORROR contained in the U-T’s article about Bochy wanting 11 pitchers was that the 11th would be HAMMOND, not Breslow. Frankly, I think it’s a toss-up between Burroughs and Breslow for the 25th spot. But there is no way Hammond belongs in this discussion. If it’s true that this is the current thinking, it’s more misplaced loyalty to a veteran from Bochy.
September 30, 2005 at 9:40 am
I think that both Hammonds and Breslow will make the roster for the first round series against the Cardinals to match-up against Edmonds and Walker. Personally I would only carry one of Eaton, Williams or Lawrence as they only need 3 starters for the 1st round. I would start Peavy, Astacio and Eaton and carry Trevor, Linebrink, Aki, Seanez, Hensley, Hammonds and Breslow in the pen which leaves room for 15 batters on the roster.
September 30, 2005 at 9:56 am
Eaton, Lawrence, and Williams can pitch in relief. I’d rather have any of them pitch to Edmonds in the 7th than Breslow or Hammond.
September 30, 2005 at 9:58 am
IIRC, Breslow was recalled on September 1. Isn’t he ineligible for the postseason unless someone like Hammond comes down with a mysterious DL-qualifying injury?
September 30, 2005 at 10:02 am
If Bochy carries 11 pitchers, the Johnson vs Burroughs thing seems easy to me. Let’s take the guy with the OPS that’s 216(!) points higher, even if his AVG is .229. He’s also the one that you can put into the starting line-up without wincing. And he’s got two things the Padres are short on, speed and a decent outfield arm. All Burroughs offers is a capable defensive back-up to Randa. Leave Burroughs off, and Randa gets 100% of the playing time at 3B. Admittedly, that doesn’t inspire, but it is sufficient - and Burroughs is not an improvement. In an emergency, DJ, Fick, even Loretta has some 3B experience.
Or Bochy could put Nady there. Oops, gotta go, just saw a pig fly past my window.
September 30, 2005 at 10:04 am
EY too is an emergency option at 3B.
September 30, 2005 at 10:15 am
Gotta watch out for those pigs.
Yes, Breslow was recalled Sept. 1 so he would be ineligible. I’d rather see Hammond than Breslow if the choice came down to that. Hammond has been horrible in the second half but he has a track record and he’s a smart pitcher.
Breslow is a great story and I hope he can be a part of next year’s staff, but he has 16 big-league innings to his credit and has issued 13 walks. I would be very hesitant to bring him into any kind of meaningful situation, which means why not keep an extra hitter.
I actually can see the case for Hammond. The idea doesn’t excite me, but I at least understand it.
September 30, 2005 at 10:36 am
Is it too early to dream about a Peavy/Zito front of the rotation next year?
September 30, 2005 at 10:49 am
No, it’s never too early to dream. Just remember that three of the five spots most likely belong to Woody, B-Law, and Chan Ho Park.
Do I know how to kill a mood, or what?
September 30, 2005 at 10:50 am
Depending on how Woody is pitching tonight, I’m thinking of having Woody pitch the second game in St. Louis as his numbers there is very very good and the HR given up was way fewer than outside Busch.
Also, Pedro’s numbers are better in Petco so he can pitch game 3 at home.
I sure hope Hammond is good in the playoff. Maybe a few tuneup in the Dodgers series. And pitch with no men on to start.
Although, Seanez has been quite good against lefty (.236 BAA vs .214 righty).
September 30, 2005 at 11:15 am
Thanks, TF & Geoff, for the clarification on Breslow. Sorry he’s not eligible ’cause I’d take him in a heartbeat over this:
12.1 H/9
2.8 HR/9
2.3 BB/9
3.3 K/9
8.38 ERA
That’s Chris Hammond from July 1 to date. And that’s being brought in primarily to face left-handed batters. So this is where “The Book” leads to a really awful roster decision. And if he’s actually used in an even mildly important situation, think good thoughts for me, ’cause if you’re in the same room, you’d probably be able to see the aneurysm throbbing under my skin just before it bursts.
So if it’s Hammond or Burroughs for #25, I think you see where I’m going.
September 30, 2005 at 12:31 pm
As far as Breslow being called up on Sept. 1st it doesn’t matter as Guzman is on the DL and they can replace him with anyone on the 40 man roster.
September 30, 2005 at 1:11 pm
Tom: Really? If so, that’s one heckuva loophole.
As for the rotation, I’m fascinated to see what Bochy ends up doing. Peavy has to be a lock for Games 1 and 4. Beyond that, all we really know is that there are three games to be divvied up among Williams, Eaton, Hensley, and Lawrence, with the odd men out working out of the ‘pen.
This weekend against LA could be an audition for some of those spots, no?
September 30, 2005 at 1:39 pm
I heard during the game last night that because of the playoff schedule..that Peavy could pitch 3 times in the first series. There’s an off day between games 1 and 2. Still…I’d go with Peavy, Williams, Astacio, Peavy Games 1-4 and hope that’s good enough..
September 30, 2005 at 8:38 pm
re: Just remember that three of the five spots most likely belong to Woody, B-Law, and Chan Ho Park.
Woody is a free agent, the Padres hold option, and I hope they don’t pick it up.
Park is under contract. But the Padres shouldn’t pitch him just because he will be making $10 mil. That’s backward thinking. It’s smarter to pay him $10 mil to stay out of the way.
I hope that between Peavy, Hensley and the first-round pick out of Miami, Eaton and Lawrence are great fourth and fifth starters because that’s really what they are.
September 30, 2005 at 9:21 pm
Woody made enough starts to trigger his option for next year.
October 1, 2005 at 9:11 pm
That]s too bad.