Tuesday Links

Just a few links for you to chew on today.

  • Padres Hot Stove: Changes (Scout.com). John Conniff gives his takes on the moves that should be made. This one showed up in the comments a few days ago but it’s still relevant and worthy of discussion. I’d really like to see Eric Young return, because he was the cause of most everything positive that happened for the Padres in the playoffs. I also think Conniff is dead on in his assessment of Josh Barfield and Clay Hensley. A lot of food for thought here.
  • Padres start staff purge (Scout.com). This is a little stale, but in case you missed it, the Padres have let go first base coach Davey Lopes, third base coach Rob Picciolo, utility man Damian Jackson, and a couple others. I didn’t have a real problem with Picciolo; I don’t know that I’ve ever been happy with a third base coach, and if I have been, it’s because I never noticed him. There’s a thankless job for you. As for Lopes, I don’t know what all his responsibilities were, but it’s mighty disappointing that a team with such a great baserunner on staff couldn’t figure out a way to tap into his expertise and get a clue out there.
  • Richard B. Wade at Friar Faithful did a nice job the other day of breaking down the current Padres contract situation. Cool chart, aside from the part where Ryan Klesko and Chan Ho Park are eating so much of the pie. But it’s not Richard’s fault the Pads have committed over $21 million to those guys for next season.
  • Johnson, Smith starring in AFL (Padres.com). Quick rundown of how the Pads’ representatives in Arizona are doing thus far.
  • D-Backs eyeing Towers; GM considering options (U-T). I’m not going to get into this until something actually happens. Right now it’s all speculation. I will say I’m glad to see that pitching coach Darren Balsley will return. For those who don’t know, he’s been working with Jake Peavy since both were at Elsinore in 2001. No need to break up that tandem.
  • Ed Barnes of The Writers has started doing a podcast with Brian Wilmer. Good stuff; give ‘em a listen.

That’s all for now. More as it happens.

2005 in Review – Catchers

So I’m wearing my Ducksnorts T-shirt the other day and someone actually says, “Okay, I’ll bite. What’s a ducksnort?” I explain, and he is the better for it.

Ducksnorts. Educating the world, one person at a time. Whether they like it or not.

Anyway. We’re talking about catchers today.

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO SEC RC/27
Padres catchers .288 .332 .433 .058 .145 .213 4.82
MLB rank 3 7 6 21 16 16 7
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.

Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Olivo saw the bulk of the playing time, with Robert Fick, Miguel Ojeda, David Ross, and Phil Nevin also strapping on the tools of ignorance at times. For the most part, Padres catchers hit pretty well relative to the big-league average in 2005.

We’ll look at Hernandez and Olivo in greater detail below. Fick and Nevin will be examined with the first basemen, while Ojeda and Ross probably don’t merit discussion.

Ramon Hernandez

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .276 .341 .477 .081 .201 .387 5.54 116
2005 .290 .322 .450 .046 .160 .308 5.21 109
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct CS% SBA/9 Inn/PB
Hernandez .988 .257 .782 134.3
MLB average .992 .294 .756 154.0
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Hernandez improved his batting average in 2005, but every other aspect of his offensive game deteriorated to various degrees. Part of this was due, no doubt, to injuries. How much is anyone’s guess. Defensive metrics for catchers are a little iffy, so don’t put too much stock into the numbers above. Hernandez remains a solid contributor behind the plate, but comes with risk and a presumably high price tag.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Last year [2004] Hernandez displayed the batting eye of two years ago and improved on the power numbers of 2003. The only negative was that he played in just 111 games, due in large part to an injury sustained while trying to block home plate. Assuming Hernandez stays healthy, look for more of the same from him both at and behind the dish.

Positives

  • Good offense from a premium position. Hit especially well down the stretch (.319/.355/.517 post-ASB), after returning from DL.
  • Pitchers apparently like working with him, although his CERA was nothing special (4.04, vs 4.15 for entire team). Then again, who knows what value lies in CERA.

Negatives

  • Spent two separate stints on the DL due to wrist injury. Played in just 99 games.
  • Only adequate on defense. Threw out just 25.7% of would-be base stealers, roughly in the bottom third among catchers. Doesn’t block plate well, as we had heard from his days with the A’s and confirmed in 2004.

Outlook

Hernandez is a free agent. Thanks to the Red Sox shelling out big bucks for Jason Varitek a year ago, Hernandez likely will do well for himself in the open market. At the end of spring training, before his injuries, I speculated that he would get around $34 million for 4 years. Hernandez’ second-half offensive surge should offset most concerns about the wrist, so that estimate still seems reasonable to me.

I didn’t like the idea of 4 years for a 30-year-old catcher in March, and I don’t much care for it now. Because you never know when a catcher’s decline phase will begin. But as Keith Woolner concluded in his 2000 study:

Perhaps we should abandon the idea of catchers developing more slowly, and recognize that the physical demands of the position will tend to reduce both the length of their peaks and the length of their careers.

Also, the track record going forward of Hernandez’ most similar batters through age 29 isn’t real promising. The only guys from the past 20 years who did anything were Terry Kennedy and Tony Pena, and neither of them had much success late in their careers.

Those seem like pretty compelling reasons for a team with the Padres’ resources not to get in a bidding war for Hernandez’ services. The Mets are rumored to be interested in Hernandez (although they also are looking at the Angels’ Bengie Molina). Regardless, it’s very unlikely that Hernandez will be playing his home games in San Diego next season.

Miguel Olivo

Summary

Offensive Capsule
  BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H RC/27 OPS+
2004 .233 .286 .439 .061 .206 .457 4.06 86
2005 .217 .246 .367 .028 .150 .362 3.05 63
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.
Defensive Capsule
  FPct CS% SBA/9 Inn/PB
Olivo .983 .304 .600 98.6
MLB average .992 .294 .756 154.0
Stats courtesy of ESPN.
Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

The numbers for Olivo include his time in Seattle, where he contributed almost nothing (an alarming .151/.172/.276 in 152 AB). With the Padres he hit .304/.341/.487 in 115 AB and did a terrific job of shutting down the running game (just .470 SBA per 9 innings; not quite Yadier Molina territory, but slightly ahead of guys like Brad Ausmus and Joe Mauer).

Expectations

None. Olivo began the season as a member of the Seattle Mariners. He came over in a deal for the disappointing Miguel Ojeda, and the assumption was that two teams were swapping lousy backup catchers.

Positives

  • Cost almost nothing (Ojeda and a minor-league reliever).
  • Good athlete who runs well and has some pop in his bat.
  • Young enough (turns 27 next July) that his second-half improvement could be legitimate.

Negatives

  • Atrocious strike-zone judgment. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2005 was an even 10:1, and it’s right around 5:1 for his career.
  • Head isn’t always in game (he cost the Pads a key game when he forgot how many outs there were and flipped a ball into the dugout against the Rockies).
  • Only previous offensive success came with the White Sox in the first half of 2004, so we can’t be sure if his strong finish this year represents a turnaround or a small-sample fluke.

Outlook

Olivo is eligible for arbitration. He made $400k last year. Based on his career numbers, he shouldn’t command a huge jump in 2006. Based on what he showed the Padres in the second half of the season, he’s probably worth signing to a 1- or 2-year deal.

At worst, Olivo makes a good stopgap until George Kottaras is ready. At best, Olivo learns some plate discipline and becomes a solid big-league backstop in his own right. A lot more upside than downside here. Olivo has to be the early favorite for the starting job next year.

Friday Notes

Slow news day. Go nuts.

Other stuff you can do: leave your thoughts on the season, buy Ducksnorts gear, go see Serenity, tell me to stop telling you what to do.

That’s all for now. Season review begins Monday.

Off-Season Schedule

I tried to be spontaneous once. Didn’t work out as I’d planned.

Bad jokes aside, here’s the general idea for the off-season. I’ll be posting at least three times a week for most of the winter (except right around Thanksgiving). Everything is subject to change but I’ll try to stick to the below as much as possible:

  • Oct. – Dec.: 2005 review. I’m still doing research and ironing out the exact format, but this is going to be pretty thorough. I plan to tackle one position a week starting next week.
  • Nov. 4 – 6: AFL road trip. I’ll be attending First Pitch Arizona this year. Some pretty big-name prospects out there this winter.
  • Nov. 19 – 27: Break time. My wife and I are celebrating our 10th anniversary this year. The least I can do is stop blogging for a week and a half, right?
  • Dec. – Jan.: Prospects from 1996, Revisited. Lesson learned: Don’t plan a huge research project during the baseball season if you’re also covering the season on a daily basis and have a full-time job, family, etc. But I’m stubborn, so I’m going to finish this thing if it kills me.

Those are the big ones. I also have some Bruce Bochy stuff I’m working on with a few esteemed colleagues. That should run at some point during the winter.

And, of course, whatever else comes up that might be of interest to us. Some possibilities include off-season meetups and maybe even a book (along the lines of the Best of 2003 compilation; I probably would have to charge for this, so I’ll only do it if there’s overwhelming interest).

Finally, I’ll also be working on a long-delayed musical project if anyone is interested in following that.

Okay, there it all is. We should have plenty to talk about until spring. :-)

Notes and Links

Happy Wednesday. We’ll start looking back at the 2005 season in excruciating detail next week. Meantime, have some links:

There you go. Rough off-season schedule Thursday or Friday, followed by insanely detailed deconstruction of 2005 season starting next week.

Enjoy!

Your Thoughts on the Season?

So, we’re going to leave this one real open-ended. In fact, I’m not going to provide any direction. Let’s hear ‘em.

Mad Props and English Muffins

Okay, no English muffins. I just wanted to formally thank a bunch of folks who helped make Ducksnorts happen this past season. If you feel you belong on this list and aren’t, I apologize for the oversight. Please assume you are there as well.

In no particular order:

Man, do my lips hurt. Anyway, if you’re not on the list and you feel you should be, assume I screwed up and forgot to put your name in there.

And this is not a goodbye of any kind. We’re just getting started here. Lots to cover during the off-season. Stay tuned…

At Least They Kept Kicking Back

The rest of the world can be as smug as they want to be, but when all is said and done, I’m proud. The Padres got kicked around pretty good in the NLDS, but they kept kicking back. Yeah, they got swept in the first round of the playoffs (hey, at least they did it for a lot less money than the Red Sox did), but they never stopped battling.

The Padres again got one of their better hitters up to the plate in the ninth representing the tying or go-ahead run after digging themselves into an unbelievably deep hole. (Note to self: Stop spotting the team with the best record in baseball 7+ run leads.) Never should’ve even come to that, but you know the Padres. Can’t do anything the easy way.

Unfortunately, the bell never really rung for the Padres in this series until the sixth inning. In innings 1-5, the Pads were outscored, 19-2, by the Cardinals. From the sixth inning on, the Friars took over, finishing with a 9-2 advantage.

If the Pads had been able to get any kind of starting pitching, this could have been a real interesting series. As it is, the Padres were competitive in all three games, which I think is more than most folks expected. Although there were games that looked like they might become blowouts, there were no 14-2 affairs here.

A Tale of Two Innings

The deciding game was similar to the previous two in another respect. Once again, ability to execute made all the difference.

Game 3 hinged on two innings, or more accurately, two half-innings: The top of the second, and the bottom of the fifth.

Top of the Second

Abraham Nunez strikes out swinging.
Yadier Molina singles to right.
Matt Morris grounds into a fielder’s choice, pitcher to shortstop.
David Eckstein homers to left.
Jim Edmonds doubles to right.
Albert Pujols is intentionally walked.
Larry Walker is hit by a pitch.
Reggie Sanders doubles to left.
Mark Grudzielanek flies to center.

4 runs, 4 hits, 2 left on base.

The recaps I’ve been reading so far don’t even mention this, but the key to the inning was Morris’ at-bat. With one out and a slow runner on first, Morris dropped down a sacrifice bunt. He hit it right back to Woody Williams, who threw to second for one. Unfortunately, the relay throw from Khalil Greene to Robert Fick at first wasn’t handled cleanly (I’d need to watch the replay to see where things went wrong, and I am in no mood to watch the replay), allowing Morris to reach base and the inning to continue.

I’ll grant that Woody still can’t be giving up a homer to Eckstein or plunking Walker (on an 0-2 count!), but if the play on Morris is made, it’s still a 1-0 game at that point. Woody wasn’t pitching real well anyway, so who knows what would have happened. One thing is for sure, though: The crowd would have been a lot more into a 1-0 game going into the fifth than a 5-0 game.

I, for one, was completely deflated by this time. I was watching my team prove all the jackass commentators right. And don’t get me started on the Cardinals fans in our section. Really, don’t get me started.

Bottom of the Fifth

Anyway, the other key point in the contest came in the bottom of the fifth. The Cards had just scored twice in the top half of the inning to extend their lead to 7-0. Then this happened:

Khalil Greene flies to center.
Joe Randa doubles to left.
Eric Young singles to right.
Dave Roberts grounds to second.
Mark Loretta singles to left.
Brian Giles singles to left.
Ryan Klesko strikes out swinging.

2 runs, 4 hits, 2 left on base.

It would be easy to focus on Klesko’s strikeout, but he had a terrific at-bat. He fouled off four two-strike pitches before finally going down.

The key play here was Greene’s fly to center. As is his custom, Greene hacked at the first pitch he saw. This time, he got a hold of one. Most parts of the park, it’s gone. But he hit it to dead center and Edmonds made one of his ridiculous catches jumping into the wall.

I don’t think the ball would have left the yard, but with almost anybody else in center, Greene is standing on second with a double. If that had happened, Klesko would have come up with three runs already in and just one out.

Ramon Hernandez, who batted behind Klesko, led off the sixth with a single up the middle. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that if Edmonds doesn’t catch Greene’s drive, the Padres score four or five runs in the fifth and knock Morris out of the game.

No Sour Grapes

Yeah, I know. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Don’t get me wrong. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cardinals are the better team. The above just serves to illustrate exactly how they are the better team.

The Padres couldn’t turn a double play, and it cost them four runs. The Cardinals got a spectacular catch out of their center fielder, and it saved them at least one run, possibly more. That’s your ballgame, your series, and your season.

Trevor Time, One Last Time?

The other great story in Saturday night’s game was the standing ovation Trevor Hoffman received when he entered the game in the ninth. We’ll start talking about these things in earnest shortly, after the dust has cleared and we’re all able to think a little more clearly, but the crowd knew that this might be their last chance to see Hoffman pitch as a member of the Padres.

If that turns out to be the case, I’m real glad I was there to be a part of it.

Okay, Now What?

Now, I’m taking a few days off because I desperately need them. I’ll probably be back with something by the middle of the week. At the very least, I’ll have a rough agenda for the off-season. We’ll have a lot to talk about, but all in due time.

Thanks to everyone for hanging out and chatting with me during the season. As always, it has been a blast.

And with that, he awkwardly ended the post…

Playoff IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (8 Oct 2005)

Wins needed for WS championship: 11

first pitch: 8:00 p.m., PT
television: ESPN
matchup: Woody Williams vs Matt Morris

previews: Yahoo! | ESPN | Padres.com

Come on down and meet your maker
Come on down and make the stand
Come on down, come on down,
Come on down and we’ll make the stand.

Last time I personally attended a big-league playoff game? 1985. Cardinals at Dodgers. It must’ve been Game 1 or Game 2 (retrosheet.org), but I can’t remember which. My friend Brad’s father had tickets through his company. We sat somewhere in the outfield (right center, if memory serves, which it probably doesn’t), next to a hot chick. I was 16 at the time, so when I say “hot chick,” I mean she probably was breathing, bipedal, or maybe a little of each.

Anyway, I haven’t been to a post-season contest in 20 years. Do I care that the Padres are down, 2-0? Well, I’d rather they were up, 2-0, or even split. But a playoff game is a playoff game, and I’ll take it.

Tonight marks the 14th time a big-league post-season game will have been played in San Diego. The Padres are 7-6 thus far but have lost their last four (two each to the Braves and Yankees in 1998). For those of you still searching for a bright side, remember that the Padres were outscored by the Cubs, 17-2, in first two games of the 1984 NLCS. Anything can happen.

Matchups

Both of Saturday night’s starting pitchers have had good success against the batters they will be facing in Game 3:

Williams and Morris: Head-to-Head Matchups
  AB BA OBP SLG
Williams vs current Cardinals 151 .245 .287 .371
Mulder vs current Padres 158 .259 .310 .380

Williams basically turns everyone into Adam Everett. The guy who has done the bulk of the damage against Woody, believe it or not, is Abraham Nunez (.526/.545/.789 in 19 AB). Woody has handled the rest of the lineup pretty well (Mark Grudzielanek and Jim Edmonds have sub-500 OPS against him, in a decent chunk of at-bats). Woody has faced Albert Pujols three times: two outs and a solo homer.

The line against Morris looks a lot like what Jose Reyes did this year. Brian Giles (.417/.481/.750 in 24 AB) and Ryan Klesko (.360/.407/.560 in 25 AB) have had the most success against Morris. Wouldn’t it be great to see Klesko bust out again? Despite Petco Park’s reputation, he does hit better at home (.250/.367/.438) than on the road (.247/.349/.400). Still, that 651 OPS after the All-Star break is pretty brutal.

About San Diego

Hi, and welcome to San Diego. There are a few things you should know about our fine city:

  • Due to a comical and/or embarrassing series of events, we don’t have a mayor. Basically, the former mayor resigned in July due to a pension fund scandal. A few days later, his replacement, a city councilmember, was convicted for taking bribes from a strip club owner. And none of this would have happened if the folks who voted for a write-in candidate in the previous election had remembered to fill in the bubble next to her name in addition to writing her name (or if the folks who count the ballots had the sense to figure out what writing in her name meant regardless of whether a bubble was filled in, depending on your perspective). I’m not trying to get political here; the important thing is, the city is kind of a mess when it comes to these things. But don’t worry, you’ll be plenty safe here.
  • We have the best Mexican food outside of Mexico. Yeah, you’ll find the usual McTaco type franchises, but I’m convinced those exist only for tourists who can’t or don’t want to deal with real Mexican food. Steer clear of Old Town. It’s a nice enough place to visit and walk around but the food there, while good enough, tends to be overpriced. If you’re looking for some serious carne asada or carnitas, check out the Ducksnorts Unofficial Guide to San Diego Taco Shops. I can’t personally vouch for all of these places, but I can vouch for all the folks who vouch for ‘em. Follow this guide, and you’ll get some good food.
  • I’m told the beaches are nice. I live about 10 minutes away, and I can’t manage to drag my butt down there more than once or twice a year. How lame is that?
  • There is some great music coming out of SD. Troy Johnson is the man on the scene, and he gave us a few of his favorites during a Ducksnorts interview back in July.
  • There’s lots of stuff to do and see here, but I don’t know what any of it is. Try the San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau. They might have some good ideas.

About the Series

  • Padres manager Bruce Bochy on Saturday’s game (Scout.com). The national story is how much the Padres suck and that they don’t belong in the playoffs. Bochy nails the real story: “Coming into the new ballpark, we wanted to contend. We came close last year. Now we’re in post-season. That was the plan all along.” I am so fired up for this one.
  • The Padres are hoping everyone is fired up at tonight’s game. John Maffei at the NC Times talks about the effect the home crowd could have on the Padres in Game 3.
  • Larry Borowsky over at Viva El Birdos noticed our discussion of execution and defense following Game 2 and provided a link to something he’d written about the keys to the Cardinals’ success back in July. The numbers are revealing. What the Cardinals are doing in this series (outscoring the opposition despite being outhit by them) is no fluke; they’ve been doing it all year. They play good defense, they run the bases well, they turn an obscene number of double plays. Simply put, they play great baseball. Thanks, Larry, for the heads-up.
  • Curtis Bunn over at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution also talks about the Cardinals’ ability to execute. The team simply doesn’t make mistakes.
  • Everybody loves MLB’s scheduling during the playoffs. Seriously, has anyone in San Diego or St. Louis been able to watch every inning of this series? The damning thing for the Cardinals is, this isn’t the first time Bud Selig has pulled this move. There wouldn’t seem to be a lot of ways to interpret the statement, “I told our people, No more 10 p.m. starts. That’s the end of it.”
  • The Frustration Factor (The Right Place). In which “Mr. Right” attempts to “quantify or measure suffering” as applied to fans of baseball franchises. An interesting read, with some cool charts at the end. The Padres are 10th among current franchises in their present market in terms of post-season appearance frequency (post-season appearances divided by years of existence) at 11.1%. That puts them just ahead of the Detroit Tigers (10.9%) and behind the Cincinnati Reds (11.9%).

Meetup Before the Game

Remember, if anyone wants to meet before the game, my wife and I will be at The Field. We’re planning to head down around 5:30 or so. I’ll be wearing a faded 1998 National League Championship shirt and blue cap with silver “SD” on it.

Come on down and we’ll make the stand.

Impromptu Playoff Meetup

My wife and I are heading over to The Field before Saturday night’s game at Petco. If anyone wants to join us, we’ll be there about 5:30 p.m. and probably stick around till 6:30 or 7.

I don’t care what the odds are; I haven’t been to a playoff game in 20 years and I am pumped. Nothing will be able to wipe the smile off my face.