Playoff IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (8 Oct 06)

by Geoff Young on Oct 08, 2006 (401) Comments

first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: Woody Williams (12-5, 3.65 ERA) vs Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.09 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets

Do I like the Padres chances in this one? Depends on the context, I suppose. I like them better than, say, the Dodgers’ or the Yankees’ chances. Maybe not quite as good as the Cardinals’ chances. Then again…

The Padres have won eight of Woody Williams’ last nine starts dating back to August 13, the lone exception being a 7-4 loss at Arizona on August 28. And the last time Chris Carpenter faced the Padres in St. Louis, on September 26, he coughed up six runs en route to a 7-5 loss at the hands of the Friars.

Grasping at straws? Maybe. A little. But there’s still a game on the schedule, which in my book means anything is possible.

As for Game 3, I haven’t had much to say. To call Saturday’s victory “great” is an understatement, as without it, the season would be over for San Diego. Chris Young’s abuse of Albert Pujols was particularly impressive (although apparently not to Pujols). That said, the club’s lack of timely hitting remains problematic and is a topic that demands serious evaluation over the winter. Hitting 1-for-25 with runners in scoring position over a three-game series isn’t a solution to anything worth solving.

I guess the most that I can say about Game 3 is that the Padres survived it, and as long as they keep doing that, they’ve got a chance. For more detailed coverage of the game, I’d point you to my colleagues, Rich Campbell, Peter Friberg, and Vinay Kumar.

Speaking of Rich, thanks to the Dodgers and Yankees both being eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday, tonight’s Game 4 coincides with the Chargers game, which is being played here in San Diego. This doesn’t bother me, as football tends not to cross my radar until Thanksgiving, but for those torn, or even just looking for a good Chargers blog, I encourage you to visit Rich’s excellent Chargers Confidential.

Otherwise, feel free to hang out with us here at Ducksnorts as we watch what we hope won’t be the Friars’ final game of 2006. Go Padres!

Playoff IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (7 Oct 06)

by Geoff Young on Oct 07, 2006 (478) Comments

first pitch: 10:09 a.m., PT
television: ESPN2
matchup: Chris Young (11-5, 3.46 ERA) vs Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.12 ERA)
previews: Padres.com
buy tickets

I’ve got a nice, big pot of coffee going. Fall is in the air, and it feels good. (Folks who haven’t lived in these parts very long can’t tell when seasons change — they need an anvil more than a gentle pat on the back when it comes to that sort of thing.)

The Padres are on the brink of elimination, but today is a new day and they’re ready to go. Dave Roberts isn’t conceding anything and he asks us not to give up on the Pads either. Fair enough, I suppose.

There’s talk that Khalil Greene may get the start at shortstop on Saturday. I know it’s nice to think that getting our regular guy back out there will cure what ails the Padres, but before everyone gets too excited, recall that Greene is just 3-for-36 with 15 strikeouts since August 1. All three hits are singles.

Chris Young, meantime, takes his road show to St. Louis. Young, as you know, hasn’t lost an away game since the Van Buren administration. (He’s also taller than an adult male Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi but we’re not going there just now.)

On the Cardinals’ side, they’ll be sending out another beatable pitcher in Jeff Suppan. But, as they proved on Thursday in San Diego, being beatable isn’t always enough to lose.

The St. Louis staff, led by pitching coach Dave Duncan, has had a plan in the first two games and executed it with precision: throw curveballs to Padres hitters, and then throw more curveballs. You can bet the Pads will see more of those from Suppan on Saturday.

The antidote to the Cards’ approach, of course, is to adjust and to hit the curveball. Or whatever Suppan and company sling toward the plate, really. Because the game is about making adjustments. So if the Padres are geared up for the curveball today, I’d imagine that the Cardinals have a contingency plan in case that strategy isn’t working for them.

One of the problems in facing a team coached by the likes of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, as we’ve seen in the first two games of the series, is that it’s exceptionally difficult to outprepare or outmaneuver them. Even with superior talent (believe it), the Padres weren’t even remotely comptetitive in the first two games. Sure, blame San Diego’s lack of execution. But give credit to LaRussa and Duncan for coming up with a workable plan, and to their players for buying into that plan and making it happen.

The Cardinals aren’t the better team in this series, but they don’t care. They’re going out and kicking ass anyway. And if the Padres don’t find a way to make that stop real soon, in a house full of red, we’ll all have to buy a ticket to the land of wait till next year.

I’m not ready for that just yet. Are you?

Might As Well Jump

by Geoff Young on Oct 05, 2006 (77) Comments

Hey, if it’s good enough for David Lee Roth, it’s good enough for me. Oh, wait, I’m the guy who’s supposed to be talking everyone down from the ledge. But then, I’d be the only one jumping.

Ah, who am I kidding. It’s only baseball. ;-)

Analysis? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Analysis

Not much to say, really. The Padres got dominated by a lousy pitcher. And from Section 308, it looked like plate umpire Bill Welke was a bit unclear on the concept of balls and strikes. That’s about it.

Blood Type: B Positive

Okay, so what are some good things that happened on Thursday at Petco Park? It was tough, but I managed to find a few:

  • Navy SEALS parachuting onto the field before the game
  • Trevor Hoffman receiving a guitar autographed by AC/DC’s Angus Young before the game
  • Trevor Hoffman catching the ceremonial first pitch from Lee Smith
  • Ryan Klesko lining a sharp pinch single to left in what might have been his final home at-bat as a member of the San Diego Padres
  • Tremendous crowd support throughout the game even when the team was busy sucking eggs
  • Not having to watch the Cardinals celebrate in our house this year

And look, I even have some photos. The astute (or even just conscious) among you will recognize that there are no shots from the game itself. I actually took several of those, but they’re all variations on the “Padres not doing anything” theme that we’re trying to avoid here.

Eleven more wins to the world championship. Keep the faith. Even when it makes absolutely no sense to do so, keep the faith.

Navy SEAL parachutes onto field at Petco Park before a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman receives guitar autographed by AC/DC's Angus Young. Bullpen catcher Mark Merila stands to right.

San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman and former big-leaguer Lee Smith, whose career saves record Hoffman broke, hug before a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres at Petco Park.

Playoff IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (5 Oct 06)

by Geoff Young on Oct 05, 2006 (582) Comments

first pitch: 1:09 p.m., PT
television: ESPN
matchup: David Wells (3-5, 4.42 ERA) vs Jeff Weaver (8-14, 5.76 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | ESPN
buy tickets

Two in-season acquisitions hook up this afternoon at Petco Park, as fans of both teams try to figure out how to accommodate MLB’s decision to schedule NLDS games during the middle of the day. I’m fortunate enough to have tickets to Thursday’s contest and an understanding boss. Others have to follow along on radio or the Internet at work, or watch the game on TiVo when they get home. Face it, the scheduling stinks. And so does losing the opener on Tuesday.

But you know what? Those are things we cannot control, and today is a new day. And if you need justification for your optimism, look no further than today’s starter for the Cardinals, Jeff Weaver.

Aside from the fact that Weaver is about as volatile a pitcher as you’ll find in the playoffs this side of Brad Penny, he also plays into the strength of the Padres lineup:

Jeff Weaver Lefty/Righty Splits
  vs LHB vs RHB
Year AB BA OBP SLG AB BA OBP SLG
2006 350 .340 .396 .609 352 .267 .310 .438
2003-05 1219 .308 .371 .526 1183 .234 .271 .368
Stats courtesy ESPN.

Heck, Weaver’s been getting knocked around by lefties since his days at Fresno State.

So, what does this mean for the Padres? We’ll probably see Todd Walker at second (actually, we’ll definitely be seeing Walker — dude is hitting .381/.409/.667 against Weaver in 21 career at-bats). And, with Friday being a travel day, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Josh Bard behind the plate.

On the other side, David Wells has no appreciable lefty/righty splits, but a few Cardinals have had success against him in the past, namely Jim Edmonds (.314/.351/.629 in 35 AB), Juan Encarnacion (.292/.320/.583 in 24 AB), and Scott Rolen (.444/.444/1.222 in 9 AB).

And how about Wells’ famous post-season experience? I have to admit, he’s got a pretty impressive line (120 IP, 109 H, 25 BB, 81 SO, 3.15 ERA, 10-4 W-L). The usual disclaimers about past performance apply, of course, but I’m liking what I’m seeing.

I’ll be out at the ballpark today so you’re on your own for this one. Talk it up and be good to one another. When I come home, I’ll post photos, hopefully of San Diego’s first playoff victory in 8 years. Go Padres!

We Acknowledge, We Move On

by Geoff Young on Oct 04, 2006 (112) Comments

Very frustrating loss in the opener Tuesday afternoon at Petco Park. The Padres, on the national stage for the second straight post-season and commanding more positive attention than perhaps they are accustomed to, came out flat against the Cardinals and never really were in this one.

Jake Peavy matched Chris Carpenter pitch for pitch through the first three innings before faltering in the fourth. After Chris Duncan led off that inning with a base hit, Albert Pujols stepped to the plate. Peavy induced Pujols to pop up behind the plate for an apparent out. Unfortunately, Mike Piazza didn’t pick up the ball immediately off the bat and misjudged it, the ball falling harmlessly to the grass beneath his feet. Pujols proceeded to battle Peavy and, as great hitters will do, eventually found a pitch to his liking and drove it out over the fence in center field, giving the Cardinals a 2-0 lead.

Not Pitching but Throwing

Peavy, whose intensity on the mound usually works in his favor, struggled after the Pujols homer, becoming more of a thrower than a pitcher. Whether Peavy was still thinking about the dropped popup is something only he knows, but the results were not good, as the Cardinals scored another run in the inning to take what would prove to be an insurmountable 3-0 lead.

Peavy’s accomplishments as a big leaguer at such a young age are impressive and not to be dismissed. That said, his first two career playoff starts have been nothing short of disastrous. Last season a broken rib suffered during the division-clinching celebration helped explain his poor performance. In Game 1 of this year’s NLDS, an inability to make quality pitches when needed proved to be Peavy’s downfall.

Unfortunately for the Padres, the Carpenter they faced Tuesday afternoon wasn’t the same pitcher they knocked around in his final regular-season start. Instead, it was the version that won the NL Cy Young Award in 2005 and that should receive serious consideration for same this year.

Poor Roster Management, Wasted Opportunities

The Friars did have their chances late, loading the bases with one out in the seventh. With a lefty reliever on the mound and Rudy Seanez due up, Bochy sent Mark Bellhorn to the plate. The only real fault with this strategy is that Bellhorn hasn’t reliably hit big-league pitching for a long time. Since the beginning of the 2005 season, Bellhorn’s line is a staggering .201/.306/.351 in 553 at-bats. It’s possible that he might run into one or the pitcher might walk him, but you don’t count on it. We are talking about a batter who has failed to make contact in over 31% of his plate appearances over the past two seasons.

Chart showing outcome of Mark Bellhorn's plate appearances during 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Given what we know about Bellhorn, it came as no surprise to see him strike out in that at-bat. It’s easy to get down on the guy, but we shouldn’t — he was doing what he does. The thing that boggles the imagination is that Bellhorn was brought into that situation at all. It’s not like his inability to hit just snuck up on everyone. We’ve had plenty of advance warning.

So, why was Bellhorn at the plate at such a critical point in the game? A good question, although not necessarily the right one. The likely answer is that Bellhorn was the one available player on the roster that Bochy was most comfortable calling on at that time. And now you see the right question: Why is Bellhorn even on the post-season roster?

I have no clue.

What I do know is that, as a result of Bellhorn’s and — let’s be honest — virtually everyone else’s inability to execute on offense, the Padres offered precious little resistance against a St. Louis ballclub that looked, at least for one day, much stronger than advertised. The Cardinals may have backed into the playoffs, but on Tuesday, they backed up and over the Padres. It was not a proud day for the Pads or their fans, which raises another point: We need to stop complaining about the lack of respect given the Padres by the national sports media. For one thing, respect isn’t given, it’s earned. What, exactly, have the Padres done to earn anyone’s respect? Obviously you and I love them because we are fans, and we’re justifiably proud of what they’ve done because we understand the context — three consecutive winning seasons is unprecedented in this franchise’s history. It’s a big deal.

To us.

Perception Is Reality

And now, a brief refresher course for the faithful on how I imagine the average baseball fan perceives the Padres:

  • They’re owned by the guy who invented McDonald’s, right? Oh, he’s dead? Sorry, I didn’t know.
  • Isn’t that the minor-league team Dave Winfield played for before he joined the great and glorious Yankees?
  • Isn’t that the minor-league team Ozzie Smith played for before he joined the Cardinals?
  • Oh yeah, they’re the team that got spanked by the Tigers in the 1984 World Series.
  • Right, and then they got spanked by the great and glorious Yankees in the 1998 World Series, hallelujah, praise be Richie Garcia.
  • What’s up with Roseanne Barr butchering the Star-Spangled Banner? Is that a west coast thing? I don’t get it.
  • Sure, I remember Tony Gwynn — he’s that Ichiro Suzuki wannabe who hit one out at Yankee Stadium one time.
  • Trevor Hoffman? He’s that Mariano Rivera wannabe. You know what would make Hoffman good? If he played for the great and glorious Yankees.
  • Wait, which part of LA is San Diego? Is it near Long Beach or am I thinking of some other place?

In other words, the Padres aren’t exactly on everyone’s radar. You and I may love ‘em, but most folks feel about them the way I feel about, say, the Yankees or the Red Sox, which is to say, not at all.

The other reason we need to stop complaining about “lack of respect” (you knew I’d get back to that, right?) is simple and goes a little like this: Who cares what anyone else thinks? We know that our Padres are a solid ballclub and that’s good enough for me — at least until they do something a little more worthy like, I dunno, win the World Series. For now, though, the focus should be on watching these guys battle and not on what some yahoos in Connecticut think about our team.

Put it another way: What do you think about Connecticut?

Exactly.

Last I Checked, “Series” Means More Than One

Okay, so what else do we know about the Padres? We know that they’ve been remarkably resilient throughout the season, that they never do things the easy way, and that they got beat by the best St. Louis had to offer. And I think, if we’re honest with ourselves, we know that the Padres can take these guys. After all, what has changed? The Padres lost a game. And it sucked. I mean, it really sucked. But these things happen. Off day on Wednesday, then we’ll all meet back at Petco Park on Thursday and watch the Pads get out there and do what they do.

With any luck, we end that day laughing at our misery over Game 1 and see the boys off to St. Louis tied in the series. Plenty of baseball yet to be played. Time will let us know whether Tuesday marked the beginning of the end or merely served as a bump in a much longer road. Until I see good, hard evidence to the contrary, I’ll stick with the latter theory.

So. Who’s with me?

Playoff IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (3 Oct 06)

by Geoff Young on Oct 03, 2006 (639) Comments

first pitch: 1 p.m., PT
television: ESPN
matchup: Jake Peavy (11-14, 4.09 ERA) vs Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.08 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
buy tickets

Playoffs are upon us. We’ve already analyzed this series to death (pitchers and position players), but I’d just like to point out that Jake Peavy finished the season very strong and Chris Carpenter posted a 4.70 ERA over 97 2/3 innings in 15 starts on the road this season.

Otherwise, it’s good to have our season extended, hopefully by more than just a little bit. Talk it up, and go Padres!

NLDS: Padres – Cardinals Series Preview, Position Players

by Geoff Young on Oct 02, 2006 (14) Comments

Okay, this took a little longer than I’d anticipated. Having first examined the pitchers, we now turn our attention to the position players.

Catcher

There are two huge positional mismatches in this series, and catcher is the first. Padres catchers led the NL with 31 homers and were second to the Atlanta Braves with 107 RBI. As a unit, they hit .300/.362/.509. The Cardinals, meantime, had one of the biggest black holes of any team at any position in baseball this year behind the dish, hitting a combined .221/.277/.328.

Padres

By picking his spots, manager Bruce Bochy (a former catcher) was able to get the most out of veteran Mike Piazza, who caught just 99 games for the Friars in 2006. Piazza responded by hitting .283/.342/.501 in 399 at-bats. His defensive deficiencies are overblown, with the only real problem being that he bounces almost all of his throws to second base (he nailed just 12% of would-be base stealers). Piazza appears to have a good rapport with his pitching staff and does a nice job blocking the plate. Primary backup Josh Bard came over from Boston because he couldn’t catch Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball. Thankfully for the Padres, Bard does just about everything else very well. He hit .333/.404/.522 in 231 at-bats (including 18 AB with the Red Sox) and removed any temptation Bochy might have had to overwork Piazza. With Piazza basically catching three games out of every five and Bard taking the other two, there wasn’t much playing time for Rob Bowen. That said, Bowen had his uses, namely pinch running and/or coming in to replace Piazza behind the dish late in games. He hit .245/.339/.394 in 94 at-bats on the season. Almost all of his damage was done before the All-Star break, as Bowen hit just .188/.264/.313 in 48 second-half at-bats.

Cardinals

Yadier Molina and ex-Padre Gary Bennett did almost all of the catching for St. Louis in 2006, with Molina getting the bulk of the work. Molina hit an unbelievable .216/.274/.321 in 417 at-bats, but provided steady defense. An anti-Piazza of sorts (don’t forget the pepperoncinis!), Molina nailed 44% of runners attempting to steal against him. Bennett did his usual yeoman’s work behind the dish (although he threw out a mere 10% of potential base stealers) and hit .223/.274/.331 in 157 at-bats.

First Base

The Padres were in the bottom third in terms of production at first base, hitting .299/.358/.494. The Cardinals have the best hitter in baseball manning the position, and it shows. St. Louis first basemen hit a combined .325/.416/.641.

Padres

Local product Adrian Gonzalez, in his first season with the Padres and his first full season in the big leagues, saw nearly all the action at first base this year. An unknown coming into the season, Gonzalez took permanent control of the job when Ryan Klesko went down with injury. Gonzalez possesses a sweet left-handed swing that allows him to hit for a high average and drive the ball out of all parts of the park. He led the club with a .304 batting average and 24 homers, and finished third with 82 RBI (just one behind club leaders Mike Cameron and Brian Giles). Gonzalez ended up with a solid .304/.362/.500 line and was equally effective at home or on the road, as well as facing left-handed or right-handed pitching. He was a steady presence in the lineup, which you wouldn’t necessarily expect from a first-year player. In the field, Gonzalez features soft hands, terrific footwork around the bag, and strong baseball instincts. He won’t get serious consideration because he’s new to the league and he plays in San Diego, but Gonzalez is a Gold Glove caliber defender at first base in the vein of, say, Wally Joyner or J.T. Snow.

Cardinals

How do you analyze Albert Pujols? He’s the best hitter in baseball. Sorry, that’s all I’ve got. No, wait. He’s the best hitter in baseball and it’s not close. Also, don’t pitch to him with the game on the line. Dude is sick with the stick, dig?

Second Base

This is one of the most evenly matched positions in the series. Both San Diego and St. Louis were below average at second base, with the Padres hitting .274/.315/.415 at the keystone corner and the Cards checking in at .263/.326/.375.

Padres

Josh Barfield enjoyed a fine rookie campaign, hitting a solid .280/.318/.423 in 539 at-bats and playing better defense than we expected. That said, at 23 years old, he remains a work in progress. He’ll sit against tough right-handers in favor of the veteran Todd Walker (.278/.356/.398 in 442 AB), who was acquired from the Chicago Cubs in a deadline deal. Neither Barfield nor Walker is a guy you bank your hopes and dreams on, but they get the job done.

Cardinals

Aaron Miles, Ronnie Belliard, and Hector Luna all split time at second base. Belliard (.272/.321/.401 in 548 AB with Cle and StL) provided most of the offense, while Miles (.263/.324/.347 in 426 AB) was more of scrappy utility type guy. Luna was shipped to the Indians for Belliard at the end of July. Presumably Belliard will see most of the action this post-season.

Third Base

The hot corner (or “not” corner as we like to call it in San Diego) is the other positional mismatch. For the season, San Diego third basemen were the least productive in the NL, batting just .230/.304/.356. The scary part is that, due to a couple of late acquisitions, those numbers are much better than they were a month and a half ago. The Cardinals, meantime, were among the best at the position, with a combined .305/.379/.554 line.

Padres

Vinny Castilla was brought in to shore up a position that had been disastrous in 2005. Remarkably, he made it even worse, hitting .232/.260/.319 in 254 at-bats before being released mid-July. Another off-season acquisition, Mark Bellhorn, took over from Castilla and was nearly as bad, finishing up with a .190/.285/.344 line in 253 at-bats. Todd Walker was brought in to replace Bellhorn but hadn’t played the position in eight years and, despite producing at the plate, had problems throwing the ball to first base. Finally, Russell Branyan came over from Tampa Bay and took the job, hitting .292/.416/.556 in 72 at-bats with San Diego. It says something about how desperate the situation was that Branyan, who only joined the club on August 24, accounted for 40% of the Padres’ home runs at the position. Geoff Blum also saw some time at third (as well as at shortstop and second base).

Cardinals

Scott Rolen bounced back from an injury-plagued 2005 and once again did a great job at the plate and in the field. (Incidentally, how come all the Comeback Player of the Year talk centers around Nomar Garciaparra and nobody’s paying attention to this guy?) Rolen hit .296/.369/.518 in 521 at-bats, and when he wasn’t out there, Scott Spiezio was picking up the slack quite nicely, batting .272/.366/.496 in 276 at-bats while filling in as needed at the infield corners, in left field, and occasionally even at second base. Not bad for a guy who went 3-for-47 over the entire 2005 season.

Shortstop

Neither team’s shortstops set the world on fire. The Padres hit .239/.302/.397 at the position, while the Cardinals batted .290/.350/.361. The starters for both clubs missed time due to injury, forcing reserves into more expanded roles.

Padres

Khalil Greene teased at various points in the season, most notably by hitting .361/.400/.619 in 97 July at-bats. Unfortunately, he injured a finger and went 3-for-36 with no extra base hits over the final two months to finish at .245/.320/.427. For the second straight season, Greene played in exactly 121 games and for the third straight season, he hit exactly 15 home runs. Consistency isn’t always a good thing. Geoff Blum (.254/.293/.366 in 276 AB) saw most of the time at shortstop in Greene’s absence, with Manny Alexander getting into a handful of games as well. Blum is susceptible to sliders down and in, and is limited defensively, but could come in handy if the Padres need a pinch hitter in the 14th inning.

Cardinals

David Eckstein bugs the heck out of me because he doesn’t play for my team. He’s the new Craig Counsell. Nothing about Eckstein suggests that he should be able to start at the big-league level except for the fact that he does. He hit .292/.350/.344 in 500 at-bats and continued to put absolutely every ounce of available energy into his throws to first. Aaron Miles filled in while Eckstein was on the shelf fom mid-August to mid-September.

Left Field

In what is becoming a familiar refrain, both clubs finished near the bottom of the pack at this position. The Padres left fielders hit .275/.340/.386 (the only team in the league not to clear the .400 SLG mark), while the Cards’ posted a .273/.344/.434 line.

Padres

Dave Roberts again provided a spark at the top of the San Diego lineup in 2006. Roberts hit .293/.360/.393 on the season and stole a career-high 49 bases in 55 attempts. Despite enjoying considerable success against lefties as well as righties, he often sat against southpaws, first in favor of veteran Eric Young (.203/.281/.313 in 128 AB with SD, but great “clubhouse presence”), then in favor of youngster Ben Johnson (.250/.333/.425 in 120 AB). Roberts, who had been overmatched as an everyday center fielder in 2005, showed much better instincts and generally looked more comfortable in left.

Cardinals

St. Louis didn’t really have an everyday left fielder. Rookie Chris Duncan (162) had the most at-bats among Cardinals who played the position in 2006, but several others saw significant time there as well. Duncan hit .293/.363/.589 in 280 at-bats, playing both corner outfield spots and also seeing some action at first base. Defensive specialist So Taguchi (.266/.335/.351 in 316 AB), lefty-swinging John Rodriguez (.301/.374/.432 in 183 AB), and the aforementioned Scott Spiezio were the other chief left fielders this season.

Center Field

Both teams feature marquee players who are, or should be, entering the decline phase of their careers. The Padres got terrific production at the position, with a combined line of .262/.347/.460. St. Louis, on the other hand, enjoyed slightly less success; its center fielders batted .252/.336/.404.

Padres

Mike Cameron, acquired in an off-season deal with the New York Mets, returned to the scene of a gruesome injury incurred in 2005 and responded with a big season for the Padres in spacious Petco Park. Cameron started all but a handful of games in center for San Diego, finishing with a .268/.355/.482 line and 25 steals in 34 tries. He established career highs in base hits and slugging percentage, and tied career highs in doubles and triples. Cameron also played Gold Glove caliber defense, giving the Padres their first true center fielder since Mark Kotsay departed following the 2003 season.

Cardinals

Jim Edmonds missed much of the season’s second half due to “post-concussion syndrome” but was effective when healthy, posting a .257/.350/.471 line in 350 at-bats. Those numbers are well below his usual standards, but they’re still pretty darned good. One thing Edmonds didn’t do well at all in 2006 was hit left-handers (.156/.198/.281 in 96 AB). So Taguchi and Juan Encarnacion (.278/.317/.443 in 557 AB), both right-handed hitters, also saw time in center.

Right Field

Once again, the Padres and Cardinals are in the lower half at this position. San Diego’s right fielders batted .263/.371/.398 on the season. Only the Florida Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies saw their right fielders knock fewer home runs. The Cards, meantime, hit a combined .272/.323/.469.

Padres

The days of Brian Giles being a dominant offensive force are long gone. His primary value now derives from being able to get on base, drive the occasional double into the gaps, and play Petco Park’s troublesome right field corner with grace and skill. Giles hit .263/.374/.397 in 604 at-bats and there is talk of moving him into the leadoff spot next year if Dave Roberts doesn’t return. Giles remains a tough out but more of a table setter now than a middle-of-the-order type.

Cardinals

Juan Encarnacion logged most of the time in right field for St. Louis. He was pretty much the same player in 2006 that he’s always been — reasonably good at many things, great at none. Doesn’t get on base much, but can pop one out of the yard every once in a while. Would it be fair to call him a poor man’s Raul Mondesi? Yes, I believe it would.

Whew, I’m beat. I’m sorry; could you repeat the question?

NLDS: Padres – Cardinals Series Preview, Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Oct 02, 2006 (77) Comments

For just the second time in club history (1984 World Series being the first), the San Diego Padres have home field advantage in a post-season series. In a rematch of the 2005 National League Division Series matchup, the Pads take on the St. Louis Cardinals.

This year’s version of the Padres would appear better equipped to take on the Cards than last year’s vintage. But even though the Pads finished the season winning 20 of their final 29 games while the Cardinals dropped 10 of their final 14, the club from St. Louis has significant playoff experience and shouldn’t be taken lightly. Fortunately, there are few more aware of that fact than the Padres, who were swept by the Cardinals just a year ago.

Rotation

Padres starters paced the National League with a stingy 4.10 ERA. The Cardinals finished at 4.79, good for 12th place in the league and worst among NL playoff teams. Among other teams, the Reds, Giants, Rockies, and Brewers all saw their starting pitchers post lower ERAs in 2006.

Padres

Chris Young led the charge for San Diego, finishing with an 11-6 record and a 3.46 ERA over 179 1/3 innings pitched. Young ranked sixth in the NL in ERA, seventh in K/9 (8.23), and first in batting average against (.206). He also was the least efficient pitcher in MLB, averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance. Young had severe home/road splits this season, so look for him to make a start at Busch Stadium. Young’s ERA on the road this year was 2.41 over 93 1/3 innings. He hasn’t lost away from home since August 12, 2005, when he dropped a 6-5 decision at Yankee Stadium while still a member of the Texas Rangers.

Clay Hensley, originally slated as one of the Pads’ setup men, stepped into the rotation when injuries hit and never left. In his first full big-league season, Hensley went 11-12 with a 3.71 ERA (10th in the NL) and was one of the Padres’ more pleasant surprises of 2006. Hensley is a ground ball specialist who, despite his success in the rotation this year, likely will be working out of the bullpen in deference to more seasoned veterans. Hensley does a great job of keeping the ball in the park, but because his pitches move so much, sometimes struggles with command.

Jake Peavy had an off-year by his standards, which is to say that most pitchers would kill for his numbers. He finished 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA over 202 1/3 innings and missed his second straight strikeout title (and his 2005 total) by one. Peavy had more trouble putting hitters away this season when he got ahead of them than he had over the past couple years, but came on very strong down the stretch, going 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA over 78 1/3 innings in his final 12 starts. He may not be quite the pitcher he was in 2004 or 2005, but when Peavy’s on, he’s still as tough as they come. And after last year’s playoff embarrassment, it’s a good bet that he’ll be prepared this time.

Woody Williams, given up for dead following a poor 2005 showing, came back strong and went 12-5 with a 3.65 ERA over 145 1/3 innings. His 4.46 K/9 won’t inspire a lot of fear, but he battles. One thing to note about Williams is that, although his ERA dropped by more than a full run in 2006, his peripherals weren’t all that different from those posted the previous season. His K/9 was well down, but his K/BB was virtually unchanged (2.06 this year vs 2.08 last), as were his BA/OBP/SLG numbers (.275/.330/.464 in 2005 vs .279/.328/.455 in 2006). It appears that Williams may have found the smoke and mirrors that were missing a season ago.

David Wells rounds out (pun intended) the rotation. Coming over from Boston just before the trade deadline, Wells made five starts for the Padres. He looked good in the first one and the last one, not so much in the others. The biggest things working in his favor are playoff experience and whatever other intangibles he might bring to the club — not only when he’s on the mound but also just in his presence. What those might entail, I haven’t a clue.

Cardinals

The St. Louis rotation begins and ends with Cy Young hopeful Chris Carpenter. His 3.09 ERA ranked second in the NL, while his 184 strikeouts were good enough for a sixth-place tie. Carpenter won the award in 2005, so this is no fluke. He’s a tough customer who promises to give the Padres fits, his last start against them (7 IP, 12 H, 6 R on 9/26 @ StL) notwithstanding.

If you want an example of why won-loss record is a poor indicator of a pitcher’s performance, take a look at Jeff Suppan’s 12-7 showing in 2006. His ERA of 4.12 was higher than Jake Peavy’s, and his K/9 of 4.93 is about half that of the Padres’ ace. Comparisons to Peavy are unfair, of course. We’re just making a point about silly statistics. Suppan is a smart pitcher who compares well to Woody Williams. He won’t lead you to the promised land, but he could lend a hand when you need it. He’ll keep the Cardinals in ballgames.

The rest of the rotation is a bit of a mess, and the Cardinals probably are wishing for more off days in the series. Mark Mulder is out due to shoulder surgery, which leaves some combination of Anthony Reyes (5-8, 5.06 ERA in 85.1 IP), Jeff Weaver (5-4, 5.18 ERA in 83.1 IP with the Cardinals, 8-14, 5.76 ERA in 172 IP overall), and Jason Marquis (14-16, 6.02 ERA). Anything is possible, but none of these guys would inspire much confidence in me if I were a St. Louis fan.

Bullpen

The Padres finished with the second best bullpen ERA in the National League. Only the New York Mets (3.25) had a lower ERA than the Pads’ 3.42. The Cardinals, meantime, were middle of the pack with a 4.06 ERA. The two teams finished 10th and 11th in the league in relief innings pitched, so neither was overly dependent on its bullpen.

Padres

The Padres relied heavily on its Big Three of Cla Meredith (1.07 ERA in 50.2 IP), Scott Linebrink (3.57 ERA in 75.2 IP), and Trevor Hoffman (2.14 ERA in 63 IP), with a dash of Alan Embree (3.27 ERA in 52.1 IP) thrown in for lefty goodness (hello, Chris Duncan and Jim Edmonds). Meredith came over in the deal that sent Doug Mirabelli back to Boston and, until a recent stretch where he was worked extremely hard, effectively slammed the door in the seventh inning for much of the season. Linebrink, who had been among the toughest relievers in the big leagues the past 2+ years, struggled in 2006, seeing his ERA finish well above career norms (3.00 entering the season). Hoffman works the ninth, and exclusively the ninth. The last time he pitched more than a single inning was when he surrendered 4 runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies en route to a 5-2 loss at Petco Park on August 13, 2005. Embree bounced back from injuries and was able to appear in a career-high 73 games.

Others potentially in the mix include Jon Adkins (3.98 ERA in 54.1 IP), Scott Cassidy (2.53 ERA in 42.2 IP), Brian Sweeney (3.20 ERA in 56.1 IP), and whichever of Clay Hensley or Woody Williams doesn’t make the rotation. Adkins was solid, if unspectacular, for much of the season. Cassidy was brilliant in April but suffered from acute gopheritis and spent most of the summer at Triple-A Portland, before returning to make five low-leverage appearances in September. Sweeney pitched well when called upon, which wasn’t often. At times it was easy to forget he was even on the big-league roster, and I think sometimes Bruce Bochy did. As for the long-man role, Hensley and Williams both started the season in the bullpen. Hensley finished his first full season #10 in the NL in ERA (3.71) but Williams has the experience. Also, Hensley was dominant as a reliever down the stretch in 2005, so the guess here is that he’ll end up in that role again this post-season. What will be interesting to see is whether Bochy is willing to use anyone other than Embree, Meredith, Linebrink, or Hoffman in key situations. He’s been overly dependent on those four down the stretch, and if he still doesn’t want to give others a meaningful role, he’ll need his starters to work at least six innings every time they toe the slab.

Cardinals

On the Cardinals side, closer Jason Isringhausen is out for the season with a hip injury, which has thrust youngster Adam Wainwright into the role. Wainwright was the Cards’ most effective reliever in 2005, posting a 3.12 ERA over 75 innings. Sinkerballer Braden Looper (3.56 ERA in 73.1 IP) is the Cardinals’ primary setup man, with Josh Hancock (4.09 ERA in 77 IP) and Brad Thompson (3.34 ERA in 56.2 IP) also making significant contributions. Tony LaRussa, master of the matchups, also has two southpaws at his disposal, which could prove troublesome for the Padres, whose lineup and bench is heavily stacked toward the left side. The potentially good news is that neither Tyler Johnson (4.95 ERA in 36.1 IP) nor Randy Flores (5.62 ERA in 41.2 IP) was particularly effective in 2006. LaRussa appears to employ a more diversified approach in managing his bullpen than does Bochy. I am not sure whether that’s an advantage or a disadvantage in a short series. I suppose it depends on how well the starting pitchers do. If they consistently work deep into games, then having a few studs in the ‘pen could be enough, but if they’re knocked around a bit, it’s nice to have reliable reinforcements ready at the call. The Cardinals appear to have the advantage in the depth department, with the Padres being stronger at the top.

Out of time. I’ll get the position players tonight.

Padres Win NL West

by Geoff Young on Oct 01, 2006 (26) Comments

Oh, man, that was a lot more difficult than it needed to be. Am I talking about Sunday’s clincher or the season as a whole, and does it matter? Well, a little of each, I suppose. And no, it doesn’t matter, because for the second straight season, the Pads have won the NL West. You know how many teams in this division have won it more often than the Padres since 1996? Here’s a hint: it starts with a “z” and rhymes with “hero.”

Seriously, you can look it up. Never mind, I already did:

SD: 4 (1996, 1998, 2005, 2006)
Ari: 3 (1999, 2001, 2002)
SF: 3 (1997, 2000, 2003)
LA: 1 (2004)
Col: 0

You know which team has the best record in the NL West since 2004? It’s the only team that hasn’t had a losing season in at least one of the last three:

SD: .529
LA: .519
SF: .499
Col: .434
Ari: .420

While the Dodgers were busy up north completing their sweep of the (a)pathetic Giants (could you at least pretend to have some pride?) on Sunday, the Padres jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead against Cy Young Award contender Brandon Webb. The Pads, never content to do anything the easy way, gave most of their lead back and barely hung on to win, 7-6. The Diamondbacks, for their part, repeatedly disrupted the action to pay homage to some departing free agent or other. Nice gesture, but maybe after the game would have been a more appropriate time.

My wife, reader Didi, and I watched the contest on the video screen at Petco Park. There were maybe a few hundred people out there, cheering on the Padres. We even did an impromptu a capella version of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” When Trevor Hoffman came on to work the ninth, everyone started chanting, “play the song!” and moments later, “Hell’s Bells” was pumping through the sound system.

Despite a nerve-wracking bottom of the ninth that saw Hoffman surrender two home runs and nearly the lead, the Padres won the ballgame and the division. Now we celebrate, but not too much. Winning the division is a mile post, not the goal. We acknowledge the accomplishment and prepare to reach the next mile post.

But we do celebrate. With that in mind, there will be a rally at Petco Park on Monday. I don’t know what exactly they have planned but here’s a look at the stage that was being set up on Sunday for the event:

Stage being set up at Petco Park for 'Rally Monday'.

After that, the NLDS sees the NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals come to town for games on Tuesday and Thursday. I’ll be at Tuesday Thursday afternoon’s contest, but we’ve got plenty to talk about between now and then. Meantime, enjoy the moment and get ready to rock the house when the Cards come to town.

Go Padres! Oops, I mean, Go National League Western Division champion Padres!

IGD: Padres @ Diamondbacks (1 Oct 06)

by Geoff Young on Oct 01, 2006 (169) Comments

first pitch: 1:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (11-5, 3.57 ERA) vs Brandon Webb (16-7, 2.88 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
buy tickets

The Padres are in the playoffs, and that’s awesome. But on Sunday they have a chance to take the NL West. Regardless of post-season matchups (they’re all good teams, otherwise they wouldn’t be there — and as Peter points out, “if the Padres keep winning, they’ll win the World Series”), the division title is the goal now. To win it, the Padres will have to go through the guy who currently gets my vote for NL Cy Young (sorry, Trevor), Brandon Webb.

I’d give you the full breakdown, but as has been the case for much of the past month or so, my analytical tendencies have been pushed aside by the kid who just wants to see his team win. Honestly, who can think at a time like this?

On another note, I’ll be out at Petco Park watching this one on the big screen. I know some others of you will be out there as well. This is way last minute for a meetup, but anyone who can make it, let’s get together right around home plate of the kids’ baseball field at, say, 1:30 p.m. I’ll be wearing my Aki “Yosshaa!!” T-shirt and Ducksnorts trucker hat.

Now, let’s beat those Snakes and take this thing. Go Padres!