Baker Added to Managerial Mix; Padres Sign Minor-League Free Agents
Fri, Nov 3, 2006
by Geoff Young
As you probably know by now, Dusty Baker will interview for the Padres managerial vacancy on Monday. Considering Baker brings a lot of the same things to the table that the departed Bruce Bochy did, this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Okay, actually it doesn’t make any sense to me.
David Pinto thinks “it’s simply a diversity interview” and he may be right. Like Bochy, Baker has a reputation as a good motivator of players, favors veterans, and will come with a hefty price tag. For a team that is said to be looking for “somebody who’s open-minded to new ways of doing things,” Baker wouldn’t seem to be the best fit.
I don’t know; right now this just seems weird more than anything else. It’s only an interview. If something comes of it and Baker actually ends up landing the job, we may have to throw a serious hissy fit or, at the very least, hide Jake Peavy and Chris Young. For now, though, we’ll just watch and see what the Pads do.
What’s more interesting to me (because my mind works in strange ways) are the minor-league free agents nabbed by the Padres. In the North County Times article referenced in the opening paragraph, Brian Hiro notes that Brian Myrow, Royce Huffman, Adam Shabala, Frank Brooks, Adrian Burnside, and Ryan Ketchner have been signed by the Pads. According to Hiro, Brooks and Burnside are expected to contend for a bullpen spot, while Shabala could stick as a reserve outfielder.
Myrow is a 29-year-old corner infielder with a career .424 OBP in over 2100 minor-league at-bats. He’s also got some pop (.498 SLG). Played in 19 games with the Dodgers in 2005 and spent last season in the Boston organization, mostly on the DL.
Huffman, who will be 30 next year, is the older brother of Padres 2006 second-round pick Chad Huffman. Like Myrow, Huffman gets on base (.385 OBP in 3400+ minor-league AB) but doesn’t hit for quite the power (.431 SLG). He’s primarily a first baseman, although he did see some action at second and short, as well as behind the plate, for Round Rock in 2006.
Shabala is a 29-year-old outfielder who has — say it with me — decent on-base skills (.358 OBP in 2400+ minor-league AB) and marginal power (.415 SLG). He’s spent each of the past three seasons with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate in Fresno. Made it into six games with the big club in 2005.
Brooks is a 28-year-old left-hander who had a cup of coffee with the Pirates in 2004, and maybe a lump of sugar in Atlanta the following season. His minor-league record is undistinguished, and I’m getting tired of writing about these guys. They all seem about the same to me.
Burnside is like Brooks, only he’ll be 30 next year and he has yet to reach the big leagues. Burnside hails from Australia.
Ketchner, yet another left-hander, turns 25 in April (a baby!) and actually has posted some decent numbers in the minors. He had a real nice season in the California League at age 21 while a member of the Seattle Mariners organization, then was dealt to the Dodgers. Oh, wow; he’s deaf. Ketchner also has had elbow troubles in the past. Man, I’m glad I didn’t give up here. I was getting pretty bored with all these non-descript guys approaching 30, but Ketchner’s is a great story. How can you not like having him in the organization? Very cool. I know I’ll be pulling for him.
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November 3, 2006 at 7:59 am
Can you thread-jack a comments section with the first comment?
Anyway, you HAVE to read Brian Hiro’s article regarding the Padres’ off-season plans.
Quoting:
If the Padres are to toss their hat in the ring for a big-ticket player, it likely won’t be for a pitcher, not with Peavy, Young and Hensley forming the basis of a rock-solid rotation. Rather, the Padres will use their cash to address a glaring lack of power, which manifested itself in the runs-deficient series against the Cardinals.
The Padres have set their sights a pair of big boppers in Soriano and Carlos Lee, who both happen to play left field, which happens to be one of the team’s biggest holes with Dave Roberts’ free agency leaving unproven youngsters Ben Johnson and Terrmel Sledge at the position. A conservative estimate of what it would take to land Soriano or Lee, who combined to hit 83 home runs last season, is $80 million over five seasons.
“They’re on top of our list,” a Padres official said. “But they’re on top of everyone else’s list, too.”
Another slugger at a need position who intrigues the Padres is third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who has batted at least .291 with 31 homers and 92 RBIs each of the past three seasons.
***
Very Interesting…
November 3, 2006 at 7:59 am
http://www.nctimes.com/article.....1_2_06.txt
Here’s the link
November 3, 2006 at 8:09 am
I dont think the pads will get a big free agent, I think they will go the trade route and get a Tejada, Rollen or dare I say it A-Rod.
November 3, 2006 at 8:10 am
Isn’t Dusty going to demmand a dollar amount similar to what Bochy was making? If so how does that fit into Aldersons grand scheme??
November 3, 2006 at 8:15 am
They will not hire Dusty, he is the same type of manager boch is. I think they interviewed him for 2 reasons:
1. Because he wanted to interview with the team and how can you not interview and interested 3 time manager of the year.
2. It’s a PR thing to show that they did interview a “big time” manager and still decided to go with a rookie.
November 3, 2006 at 9:22 am
#5 - you’re exactly right, plus I would add, from DB’s side, he could use a little more “heat” in the market around his name, so why not make some PR waves with the Pads? In fact, it’s probably a mutual benefit thing…DB knows the Pads don’t want his type of manager, but he gets benefit by increasing the “heat” around himself; KT knows he’s being used, but he gets the benny of having a 3time MoY template to compare the ‘kids’ too.
November 3, 2006 at 11:13 am
I disagree about the Baker thing. He has weaknesses, we all admit that, but don’t we also have to agree that he’s probably of the few best motivators in ALL of baseball? And if we agree to that, and IF he understands his weaknesses, and IF he’s willing to acquiesce to the front office’s desire of HOW the team should play (ie. no bunting, limited hit-and-run, limiting pitch counts, etc.), then shouldn’t he be considered for our manager, especially if he’s willing to work for a reasonable contract?
November 3, 2006 at 11:51 am
I’m not a knee-jerk anti-Dusty guy but that’s a lot of ifs. My main issue with Dusty is he’s too similar to Bochy. I believe changing managers is an opportunity to change the culture and personality of the team and I don’t see that Baker offers that. And I can’t imagine him taking the kind of money people have speculated a Bud Black would take.
I think Hiro is right on about the FA market. We need a power bat much more than we need another starter. I have to think we’re going after a left fielder given the lack of interest in Dave Roberts. Lee or Soriano or maybe a Sheffield trade, Iwamura at 3rd, a few mid level starters and a Towers bargain bullpen would be enough to get us to 90 wins I think.
November 3, 2006 at 11:53 am
Geoff, I’m not sure if you and I agree on this, but from my extensive study of minor league baseball over the past few years, I’ve noticed that the minor league free agent signings are a lot of throwing a bunch of stuff at a wall and seeing what sticks.
You have a very solid point about a lot of these guys blending together; same tools, same makeup, same breaking ball, same average power, etc. You may catch lightning in a bottle once in a while (or every few years if you’re the Braves, for instance), but these are mostly depth guys at Portland and San Antonio, if they even draw a check from the Padres in 2007.
Minor league free agents are as follows:
- The injury-prone guy with a bunch of upside
- The million dollar talent with the five cent head
- The guy that plays 8 positions and doesn’t hit well enough to start 140 games at any of them
- The “great character” (read: no discernible on-field skills) guy
- The “oh, that guy” veteran who has been with a couple or three big league teams and done just enough to get farmed back and bounce around more
At least they didn’t sign 582 guys to NRI deals like the 2006 Nationals, so there is that.
November 3, 2006 at 12:13 pm
re: 7
I guess it’s good to stay open-minded on Bochy, but just I don’t see how he would be a good fit. He’s great at changing the culture (using his motivation to do it) with a losing team like the Cubs. But the Padres don’t have a losing culture. I’m not sure this team needs much motivation. With Barfield, Greene, Ben Johnson and some of these young guys, they need a teacher who can eliminate their mistakes.
Then, his weaknesses are many. He is not a sabermetric manager. “The clogging up the bases” comment has made the rounds here, but he also said he doesn’t believe a player reaches his peak until his early 30s or beyond. Plus, there’s no way I would Baker around three young pitching talents like Peavy, Young and Hensley.
That’s a lot of weaknesses just to have his “motivation,” which would worth very little, considering the Padres are a winning team, not a losing one.
November 3, 2006 at 12:14 pm
Anthony… Did you read my Zito piece on my ‘blog (re: Hiro’s article)? I think Soriano and Lee are highly likely to be Nevin/Klesko albatroses at the end of their contracts. I do not see Zito breaking down or regressing as much as I do those two. I agree with you on Iwamura (though I would prefer trading for Marte or Fields, especially Marte), and I would go for signing Alou.
As I pointed out in my Zito article, we scored 731, and allowed 679 runs. That’s a 52 run difference. Zito, by himself, would save 25 runs or so. Alou/Johnson/Sledge + Marte or Iwamura would probably add 10-15 runs. Now we’re talking about a 85-95 run differential and well over 90 wins.
November 3, 2006 at 12:24 pm
Kevin (and everyone else),
Please don’t misunderstand me, I don’t WANT Baker here, but I’m just not worried about him interviewing with us, and I can see potential positives.
If you asked me who I wanted if I was hiring based on what I know right now, I really like what little I know about Manny Acta, I like Hillman… I would probably chose between those two with what little I know.
November 3, 2006 at 12:31 pm
I know you’re not endorsing him. I just don’t see any positives.
November 3, 2006 at 12:41 pm
Heh, of course I read your blog. What else am I going to do at work besides read about the Padres?
The more I read about Lee the less I like him, especially the Heyman article on si.com that mentions he’s up to 270 pounds. I don’t expect Soriano to regress as much as a lot of people seem to to think but the money he’s supposedley asking for is crazy.
I’m not anti-Zito, I just think this team needs someone with 30+ homer power. There’s no one in the lineup that other teams fear, no one they really pitch around. What about an Adam Dunn trade? Everyone is saying the Reds are looking to move him and he’d have no trouble hitting the ball out of Petco.
One thing I like about Zito is I can see him aging fairly well. Left handers with a big curve seem to be able to last forever and his lack of injuries is a good sign.
November 3, 2006 at 12:45 pm
The ‘96 yankees never had a 30 HR player… We need power to win, but several guys who hit lots of 2Bs and 20ish HRs is more than enough.
November 3, 2006 at 1:15 pm
Anthony, I am a huge fan of Adam Dunn (mostly because he looks like me when he takes his shirt off…soft, pudgy and cute), but I bet KT and the gang worry about K rate when we already have guys like Cameron and Branyan ending rallies. Man, those 40+ bombs would be fun though.
Zito’s numbers seem to be in decline each of the past 4 years. I don’t like the increase in walks, decrease in K’s, and his overall effectivness on a game-to-game basis does not seem to be #1 material…since he is asking for the moon (thanks JP Richardi and Scott Boras), I think we pass and go for middle rotation types and add a bat.
I still think Ensberg ends up as our 3b next year and that LF will be manned by Alou/Sledge/Johnson/Misc. fill in guy.
November 3, 2006 at 1:21 pm
I’d have to see a lot more material before believing that Dusty Baker is a master motivator. He won in SF when his GM gave him Bonds, Kent, Schmidt, and enough other parts. I don’t see how he motivated those players to perform well, since they’ve performed as well or better without him.
November 3, 2006 at 1:27 pm
If we can put up a .360 OBP like the 96 Yankees then I can live without 30 homers. I actually think Adrian Gonzalez has 30 HR potential but it’s a big dropoff after him. Cameron might get 20, Giles won’t. Piazza is a big question mark even if he comes back. Greene can hit 20-25 if he’s healthy, which seems unlikely. Branyan can definitely hit 25+ but might not get on base enough to make it worth it.
Anyway, Zito + Iwamura + Alou sounds pretty good to me. Or Soriano + Meche + Huff. I just don’t want to see Aurilia + Ted Lilly + Luis Gonzalez or some other pre-Petco type of move. And I damn sure don’t want to hear how the market wasn’t right and we decided to put the money back into our farm system or something. Sign an impact player and strike some fear into the rest of the division.
November 3, 2006 at 1:27 pm
Alou may be injury-prone bc of his age, but he had the highest SLG % of any free agent hitter in ‘06:
Alou: .571
A-Ram: .561
Soriano: .560
Thomas: .545
Lee: .540
And his career averages are .301/.368/.516
Alou hit .301/.352/.571 in 2006 (98 games, 345 AB)
A two year deal for Alou may be the best bargain in baseball this offseason and allow us to get Zito who as Anthony opined, “I can see [Zito] aging fairly well. Left handers with a big curve seem to be able to last forever and his lack of injuries is a good sign.”
November 3, 2006 at 1:46 pm
Peter, one thing I noticed in your Zito report was a lack of discussion on his K/BB Rate (second most walks in the AL this season and almost the lowest # of k’s he has ever had) and the fact that he is just above .500 over the past 4 years (55-46).
I just don’t see how he would be worth anywhere near 5/$75.
November 3, 2006 at 2:15 pm
Yeah, as I posted the article last night, I noticed that didn’t get into very many stats with Zito. I was too tired to revise and happy w/ what I had (in hindsight, I should have used more stats).
I was not attempting to hide the negative…
I did point out that he had a rather pedestrian 1.40 WHIP… Maybe this is another way he is like Tom Glavine.
Glavine’s yearly WHIP has fluxuated from a low of 1.09 in 1991 to a career high 1.48 in 2003 (I’m not counting a 1.74 in his rookie 1987 when he threw 50.2 IP). Furthermore Glavine posted 1.40+ WHIP in ‘90, ‘94, ‘99, ‘01, and ‘03. And while ERA suffered in those years, he still posted decent ERAs (4.28, 3.97, 4.12, 3.57, and 4.52) in those years.
Glavine’s career BB/SO totals are 1399/2481. Having agonized through Glavine starts (I used to be a Braves fan) I can say he willingly allows walks, but refuses to throw the ball over the heart of the plate. Zito’s numbers appear that he pitches with a similar style…
Interesting rate stats comparing the two:
Glavine: 3.46 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.38 K/9
Zito: 3.55 ERA, .125 WHIP, 6.90 K/9
November 3, 2006 at 2:16 pm
Obviously that should be a “1.25 WHIP” for Zito…
November 3, 2006 at 2:19 pm
Congratulations to Mike Cameron, who Padres.com has announced won his 3rd Gold Glove award.
November 3, 2006 at 2:24 pm
Nice!
Speaking of GG-caliber CF-defense, I read today that the Giants are hot after Gary Matthews Jr. He’d be ideal defensively for that park (as well as for Colorado’s) but I would expect a HUGE offensive drop-off if moves away from Arlington and into AT&T…
November 3, 2006 at 2:39 pm
Breaking News!
Padres Named Greg Riddoch manager!
November 3, 2006 at 2:39 pm
of the Eugene Emeralds of the Northwest League (A)
November 3, 2006 at 2:44 pm
Wow, that’s great for Cameron. What a great all around year he had.
I’d love to see the Giants sign Mathews. He’s going to have a huge dropoff no matter where he plays and they’ll be stuck with a 4th outfielder type as their everyday CF. Plus you know Bochy will keep running him out there even if they have a better alternative, because he’s now a Proven Veteran.
I’m hoping we’ll settle on a manager soon so we can get the ball rolling on all these moves. Anyone care to offer predictions as to who it will be and when we’ll find out? I say Bud Black and next Tuesday afternoon.
November 3, 2006 at 3:00 pm
Reports are we hope to have our Manager in place by Thursday…
I’ll bite on the report and say Hillman/Thursday
November 3, 2006 at 3:15 pm
I agree Peter, I think it’s going to be Hillman
Congrat’s to MC for GG
November 3, 2006 at 3:28 pm
Jamey Newberg (newbergreport.com) developed a relationship w/ Grady Fuson when Fuson was with the Rangers. He and I exchaged e-mails this week and he says Fuson REALLY likes Hillman… Take that for what it’s worth…
November 3, 2006 at 3:36 pm
I think Wotus is the sleeper here. They got our guy, so we get theirs.
November 3, 2006 at 3:56 pm
For what it’s worth, here’s my take on the moves/roster for next year (OK, I admit some of them may be dreams):
Moves:
CY, Greene & possibly Liney for A-Rod (NYY pick up a sizeable chunk of A-Rods paycheck since the three we give up are pretty cheap)
Alou and Zito as FA’s
Roster/Lineup:
POS - Starter (Backup)
RF - Giles (Johnson)
CF - Cameron (Sledge)
1B - Gonzales (Walker, Branyon)
SS - A-Rod (Blum, Walker)
LF - Alou (Johnson, Sledge)
3B - Branyon (Walker)
2B - Barfield (Walker, Blum)
C - Piazza (Bard/Bowen) (maybe one of these 3 gone)
P - Zito, Peavy, Hensley, M. Thompson, SP#5
7-8-9 RP, Strickland, Merideth, Hoffman, RP#’s4-6 (maybe 7)
I think this equals 25 people
If this were to come true, it would be a very formidable line up. Just think what A-Gon might do with those bats around him. With Piazza catching, he might bat #3 with AGon going 6 and the others sliding down.
November 3, 2006 at 4:24 pm
I’m going to go with Bud Black and Thursday.
I’m still confused at what I would do if I were the Padres but one thing is for sure I am way more pissed about Dave Roberts leaving then I am about Bochy and Flan. I’d rather get something for Giles and keep Dave.
November 3, 2006 at 5:01 pm
Count me in on the Hillman bandwagon. Plus, I think that his connection with the Japanese League is a plus, since I think that Iwamura is the Pads’ target for 3b. The 3b FA class is weak this year with A Ramirez the only quality guy out there, and he’s too expensive for our blood. We don’t have much to trade, yet, and KT and SA will want to keep our pitching intact. (SA quoted, where, I can’t remember, but essentially saying, “If we can keep our pitching where it is, and add some offense, next year we’ll be formidible.”) The posting fee is a one year hit, leaving us some flexibility for FA signing this year, and money available next year when the FA class may look better.
November 3, 2006 at 5:22 pm
LOL @ KRS1…
Roberts was good, heck, he was above average, but which player would you rather have?
Player A .374 OPB & .397 SLG
or
Player B .360 OBP & .393 SLG
???
A = Roberts, B = Giles…
I think Giles rebounding is more likely than Roberts sustaining… Furthermore, Roberts plays a position where we can add power, without subtracting defense, Giles was among the top 3 defensive RFers last year, there’s no way we maintain both players (Roberts & Giles) defensive excellence and get better offensively. LF is simply the easier position to fill…
November 3, 2006 at 5:22 pm
LaMar, I think I want Marte over Iwamura…
November 3, 2006 at 5:25 pm
Obviously in a dream scenario, we land Soriano, Zito, Masuzaka, and Ramirez. But we’re not adding $60 million of salary plus putting up $20-25m in “post” money.
Coming out of the fantasy world, I trade Linebrink (maybe plus Sweeny or a lower-ranked minor league arm) for Marte, and sign Alou and Zito… That adds probably $20m
November 3, 2006 at 6:24 pm
I’m good with Marte. I like Josh Fields, too. But, we don’t have much to trade. Weren’t there rumors that we tried to get Marte or Fields at the trading deadline by offering up Linebrink, but no one was taking? With either Marte or Fields we’d have young prospects with a bright future, but not much big league experience. In fact, if we had Marte or Fields at 3b, our entire infield would have a total of about 5 total years of major league experience, 3 of which would be Khalil. Maybe that’s why Boch left. That much inexperience in the infield would have resulted in his right eye lash going prematurely grey. Oh, wait. . . .
November 3, 2006 at 7:12 pm
Soriano is a lazy fielder and a dumb baserunner who only cares about individual stats. I watched him this season here in D.C. I would not like to see him with the Padres.
November 4, 2006 at 7:46 am
I’m betting Bud Black, Wednesday.
I think picking Hillman for his association with the Japanese leagues, in an attempt to influence the Japanese players to sign with us is a dumb, shortsighted move. First, no guarantee they actually do follow him, but either way if he’s not the guy (and if you’re picking him just for the Jap. league ties he must not be) you’re stuck with him managing the team.
I’m with KRS1 on this, as I have been since August - put Giles on the market. I know his #s looked ok per # 35, but he’s on a rocket sled to mediocrity if he isn’t already there, and playing in Petco he’s not slowing that descent down anytime soon. This offseason you can still get some buyers on the “move BG out of Petco and he’ll hit you 30 with a .400 OBP” story. Next offseason, after an even worse season, no chance and you’re still stuck paying him that big contract.
November 4, 2006 at 9:05 am
Anyone else see the article about Cameron’s gold glove where he came out in favor of Baker?
I have a problem with this..players should not publicly try to influence the manager selection b/c where does that put you when the selection doesn’t go your way? If a player wants to privately express a preference to the front office, by all means (just don’t expect that to carry much weight), but why do it in the papers?
Plus, I’d rather have a manager that earns the players’ respect, rather than having it assumed before he even gets there.
November 4, 2006 at 10:02 am
Clayton, I have no problem with what Mike did…now, if he were to come out AFTER a hire and whine about “they should have hired….”? That would be something I would not appreciate, but I think that it is perfectly acceptable for a guy to say that he would enjoy playing for Dusty as long as he does so in a positive manner.
November 4, 2006 at 10:48 am
Sorry I’m a little behind on the comments. Big stuff on the way for Ducksnorts — more info at the beginning of December, but preparations are taking all my time right now.
Anyway, some thoughts:
#9: Brian, I think you’re dead-on. The one thing that has struck me the past couple of season is the emphasis in the Padres organization on guys who get on base. Last year it was Jack Cust, this year it’s Myrow. Not bad players to have in the minors if those are the types of guys you want your prospects to emulate.
#19: Peter, it’s amazing to me how effective Alou continues to be when healthy. You defnitely need a guy who can be ready to start 40-50 games in his place, but I’d have no problem seeing Alou in San Diego next season.
#40: Clayton, I agree that picking Hillman only because of his association with the Japanese leagues is silly. That said, if Grady Fuson likes him, that’s good enough for me.
#42: Bingo, Rich. The only real downside is that the U-T is using Cameron’s sentiments in the headline, which might get some folks who are more familiar with Baker’s name than with his actual track record overly excited at the prospect of bringing in a veteran guy with experience. Plus, if Cameron ends up being disappointed when (oh please, oh please) the Padres hire someone else, obviously that’s not a good thing.
Great discussion, guys. Keep it up!
November 4, 2006 at 11:27 am
35.
Peter it’s not that I think DR is a better player than Giles but I really like having a real leadoff hitter and a guy with above average speed. If DR leaves then we loose both. Not to mention you can’t actually tell me that you think Giles is a $11 million a year player. So maybe I’m just really saying I’d rather keep the only real leadoff hitter we have, the only real speed we have, great defense, and probably around $20 million dollars. I know Giles is a really funny guy with his highlights and his X-MEN”ish” bright orange skin and his walking around the clubhouse naked every chance he gets but when his money could be used so much more wisely I just can’t justify paying him what we do for what he does.
November 4, 2006 at 11:49 am
If Giles is declining and overpaid what exactly could we expect to get in return? Giles had the worst year of his career last year, Roberts one of his best, and Giles was still more valuable. Giles is only 6 months older than Roberts and hasn’t been nearly as fragile over his career. Giles will never be what he was in Pittsburgh and may not be worth $11 million but he’s still productive.
If we get rid of Giles who’s out there that can play RF and provide more offense and defense? Soriano and Lee can’t handle right. Sheffield? Alou? Now if we end up with Sledge/Johnson in right and Branyan at 3rd I have more of a problem with not bringing Roberts back. But Peter is right, it’s a lot easier to find an upgrade for Roberts in LF than for Giles in RF.
I do agree that a good leadoff hitter is valuable but it’s not a requirement. I’d be fine with Giles leading off if it comes down to it.
November 4, 2006 at 12:30 pm
I was actually thinking about moving Roberts to right and getting a bigger bat for left. I think that Giles would be great in a line-up where he was a compliment and not the big guy or in a smaller park.
November 4, 2006 at 1:10 pm
Rettenmund is on record with saying Giles swing is off and that he can fix him. And Anthony is right, there is no way we get someone to 1, pick up all of Giles’ contract, and 2, give us a solid return. If we could trade him, I’m not against that. But to expect us to find a RF who is better than Giles (who in an awful year still managed a near-800 OPS) isn’t likely. And who said speed is really all that critical in a leadoff hitter? Keep in mind, not only does Giles rack up BB, he avoids strikeouts and has enough speed that he can go 1st to 3rd on single easily.
“I was actually thinking about moving Roberts to RF…” What? Roberts barely has enough arm for CF…
Let’s look at the economics of this:
Expected 2007 salaries:
Roberts: $4m (Anyone think he won’t get $4m w/ lack of quality CF on the market?)
Giles: $9m (not $11m as has been reported)
Then let’s figure that if we traded Giles, we might have to pick $1-2m (let’s be conservative and suggest $1m)
The savings is actually only $4m (and less if Roberts gets a bigger contract which he easily could).
Now we have an extra $4m to go after Lee, Soriano, Alou, Ramirez, whomever… But we don’t have a good defensive RF, and now we’re lacking Giles’ on-base skills…
November 4, 2006 at 1:49 pm
Doc’s arm is barely adequate in LF, poor for a CF and prohibitively weak for RF.
I’m not saying Giles is necessarily the best choice for a leadoff hitter but he does make up for the speed deficit in some pretty positive ways, like 30+ doubles, double digit homers and being extremely agressive in breaking up the DP. Giles at leadoff would be the kind of move I’d expect from a manager who’s not afraid to think outside the box. Whether he’d accept it is another story.
November 4, 2006 at 2:05 pm
Accept it? Do you get to tell your boss what you will and won’t do?
Can I get a job there?
November 4, 2006 at 2:35 pm
I doubt there would be any problems from Giles as long as he gets to play every day. The more I think about it the more I’d like to see him lead off. We could have a pretty strong top of the order:
Giles
Barfield
Gonzalez
LF or 3B (Soriano, Sheffield, A Ramirez,) or Piazza
Piazza or Iwamura
Cameron
Greene could end up back in the 8 hole depending on who we pick up for 3B and LF.
Has anyone seen any estimates on what the posting fee for Iwamura might be? Or is he a free agent?
November 4, 2006 at 2:47 pm
Iwamura is being posted, probably over $10m, but less than $15…
November 4, 2006 at 2:49 pm
Anthony, I agree, I don’t think Giles would be upset w/ leading off…
November 4, 2006 at 3:09 pm
Good discussion guys, and I agree completely on keeping Giles and having him bat leadoff. That will be quite exciting for me if we have a manager open enough to do that.
My preferred plan for next year: Iwamura at 3B (assuming Ramirez is out of our league, and/or just stays with the Cubs), Zito and a ~$4 million innings eater for the rotation, and letting Johnson have a shot at taking the left field job. Zito will be well overpaid, but we do have the money to spend and I think he’s a better bet for consistent productivity than Soriano and Lee, who just really scare me. Alou does sound like a good, cheap risk, but the potential for injuries there scares me. Plus, I think Ben Johnson could put up a .350 OBP and a .450 SLG, which would be great production for us.
November 4, 2006 at 3:14 pm
Paul R. and I were talking about an hour ago… We (well, really he more than I) came up with some more LF options for the Padres.
Carl Crawford or Rocco Baldelli
Craword is not as exciting of a possibility to me as is Baldelli, but he hit .305/.348/.482 w/ 20 2B, 16 3B, and 18 HR in ‘06 with 58 SB, 9 CS, and a 37/85 BB/SO ratio…
Crawford is unquestionably talented, but his 2B and HR are more likely be negatively affected by Petco’s dimmensions. Contract info here: http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=217
Baldelli hit .302/.339/.533 with 24 2B, 6 3B, and 16 HR with 10 SB and 1 CS and 14/70 BB/SO…
Baldelli had a lot more power 16 HR in 250 fewer AB than Crawford. he’s played CF and could handle RF but LF in Petco is more demanding as well. He would never have the desired on-base skills, but he probably be Soriano like w/out the non-hussle issues - maybe Garrett Anderson is a better comp. Either way, with Crawford, Dukes, Young, and Baldelli either Crawford or Baldelli is available…
The Padres would like be able to get Baldelli for Hensley + Carrillo.
November 4, 2006 at 3:15 pm
I’d still rather have Marte than Iwamura
November 4, 2006 at 3:36 pm
I like Ben Johnson but I’m a little skeptical still. Bringing in Alou on the Piazza plan (lots of days off even when healthy) might be a good option. At least that leaves us open to getting a big time LF at the deadline if anyone is dumping. Of course you can’t count on that (see 3B last year).
Crawford and Baldelli are intriguing but hasn’t Tampa been hard to deal with? Or did they get a new management team? TB might as well be in AA for all I know about them.
November 4, 2006 at 4:46 pm
55: I’ll absolutely take Marte over Iwamura. But I think I’d take Carillo and Iwamura over Marte, which is likely the choice.
For people that know more than me: how is Johnson defensively?
November 4, 2006 at 5:37 pm
Ben Johnson is good enough defensively to handle (not be exceptional) CF and has at least the equal of Giles’ arm (Cameron’s might be the strongest of the OF corps).
I think we can get Marte for Linebrink + a low-level arm (ie. not giving up Carrillo).
November 4, 2006 at 5:38 pm
Anthony, yes, Tampa has been hard to deal with, but that reputation was made during the previous regime’s control. It was perputuated when they didn’t do Marte-Lugo-Renteria three-way and wanted another prospect, but you can still ask.
November 4, 2006 at 6:13 pm
From MLB.com
Outfielder Gary Sheffield apparently won’t have to wait until Sunday’s deadline to learn if his contract option will be picked up by the Yankees. Several reports said the Yankees were planning to trigger the $13 million option Saturday night and begin entertaining trade offers from six teams, including the team that knocked them out of the playoffs — the AL champion Detroit Tigers.
In addition to the Tigers, the Astros, Indians, Rangers, Padres and Orioles all have inquired about the slugger, who played in only 39 games last season because of a wrist injury. The Cubs may have interest, too, according to a source.
Among those who could intrigue the Yankees are Detroit pitcher Wil Ledezma, San Diego reliever Scott Linebrink and Texas catcher Gerald Laird.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/.....p;c_id=mlb
November 5, 2006 at 2:06 am
Exciting new rumor on the Padres’ third base situation:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6139030
Because one recently underperforming Giles in San Diego is definitely not enough. I guess I would rather see Linebrink still in San Diego and Iwamura signed at third base. Marte, Fields, and Ensberg are also much preferred options. Failing all those, I guess Giles does represent an upgrade over Branyan at third.
Marc Normadin offers a convincing case for a team to take a chance on Giles bouncing back in 2007. Of course, that was done in the context of Giles playing second base, not third.
November 5, 2006 at 2:06 am
Oops, here’s the link to the Normandin article:
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5565
November 5, 2006 at 7:45 am
I’ve been a Marcus Giles fan, but I didn’t watch his 2006 season very carefully…
After reading the BP article, he sounds a lot better than I would have expected. He’s not a dead pull hitter, so PETCO could be harsh on the right-hander. On the other hand, we watch a bunch of pull hitters try to pull off-speed breaking pitches and ground them to middle infielders. So maybe the non-pull thing would be a good.
I’m “open” to him, but like Ben B. in #61, I prefer Marte or some of the other candidates.
November 5, 2006 at 8:16 am
#36, #55, #58, #63. Peter, how do you feel about Marte?
November 5, 2006 at 11:55 am
Did anyone see Tim Sullivan’s odds today? I assume he thinks Baker is the favorite, but I doubt he actually is.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....livan.html
November 5, 2006 at 12:05 pm
Yep, saw that, Kevin. I’ve got to believe it’s going to be Black or Hillman. I’d be happy with either of them or Oquendo. I’m pretty neutral on Wallach and Wotus. I really wish Baker’s name wasn’t even in the mix at this point — if he’s being considered, there’s a chance he might get the job; I haven’t looked at his track record closely but off the top of my head, I’m thinking he’d be Bochy without the ability to handle a pitching staff.
November 5, 2006 at 1:29 pm
#45 - Anthony, I’m assuming you are using some quantitative formula like VORP or something in your contention that Giles was more valuable than Roberts. I haven’t looked that up, but assuming you’re correct, this is a perfect example of where purely numbers-driven analysis gets you in trouble. Any reasonable person observing the padres this year can tell you Roberts was vastly more valuable than Giles. It’s not even a contest. Giles put up mediocre numbers and consistently failed to come through in high-leverage situations. I lost count of weak GIDPs from him. Once you factor in compensation, it’s a runaway. Giles should forfeit half his game checks this year for the sad excuse for a season he gave.
#61 - interesting…anyone know if MGiles can play 3rd or is it Todd Walker all over again? Does he also come with orange skin? Is that an inheirited trait?
November 5, 2006 at 3:12 pm
“Any reasonable person observing the padres this year can tell you Roberts was vastly more valuable than Giles”
Really? I wouldn’t say that at all, I mean there numbers were close as far as OBP and SLG, but those extra 100 AB’s from Giles do count for something. Combine that with Giles playing a more difficult defensive position and I think its actually fairly clear that Giles was more valuable. If you want to say he wasn’t worth his paycheck I think every single person would agree, but what can you do about that now?
As far as the manager goes-I am deathly afraid of Baker going into the interview and saying that he will accept advice from the front office as far as lineups, in game decisions and how to handle the pitching staff, just to make sure he gets the job.
Of course if Baker were really to let a statistics minded bench coach help him while concentrating on motivating players(according to everyone his specialty) I guess it wouldn’t be a complete disaster……until Peavy throws 145 pitches in a 12-1 game on April 15th.
November 5, 2006 at 3:19 pm
Alderson/Towers aren’t dumb enough to ask, “Will you accept advice/orders from the front office?” They’ll ask, “How do you view the role of the relation between the front office and manager?” And, “How do you reconsile your tactical style to our on-base philosophies?”
November 5, 2006 at 4:09 pm
re: 25+26 … Steve, you stole my post … I just about had a heart attack reading the agate print in my newspaper yesterday … “Padres sign Greg Riddoch as manager” … OUCH!!! … “for the Eugene Emeralds” … WHEW
November 5, 2006 at 5:34 pm
re: 68
Roberts should have been in every game, not sitting against all those lefties. Giles clearly should have been sitting far more than he did. Another reason why I’m only sad in a sentimental way that Bochy is gone. Overall, he made a ton of decisions I disagreed with.
It’s not even close. Giles was dead weight in the lineup 75% of the games he was out there. Roberts was by contrast a dynamic force leading off and disrupting on the basepaths 75% of the games he was out there.
I’m sorry, I am just severely anti-Giles. Never liked giving up Perez and Bay for him, and the sentiment has gotten worse and worse. Now, this offseason decision to let DR go and not attempt to trade Giles instead just pours salt in the wound.
November 5, 2006 at 7:10 pm
I think one thing Giles has going for him is his presence in the lineup. I have no numbers to prove this, but what we have currently behind him (Sledge and Johnson) was a tremendous drop-off, and more of a drop-off than they were when Roberts was out. If you remember the final game of the three game series in St Louis at the end of the season, Giles sat out with a knee problem and Sledge played right. The entire lineup just seemed much worse, even though I believe Gilly was the only regular not in there. I think he might be the most important guy in the lineup, if only because of how it makes pitchers attack the hitters around him.
November 5, 2006 at 9:14 pm
71: I’d just like to say that you’re wrong.
Dave Roberts:
WPA: -1.21
-WPA: -9.68
+WPA: 8.47
OPS Wins: -1.86
Clutchiness: -0.63
Brian Giles:
WPA: 1.12
-WPA: -12.78
+WPA: 13.89
OPS Wins: 0.59
Clutchiness: 0.51
Surprisingly, your selective memory differs from the actual record of events.
November 5, 2006 at 9:18 pm
Glossary:
WPA: Win Probability Added
-WPA: Loss Advancement
+WPA: Win Advancement
OPS Wins: .025 * (1.7 * OBP + SLG - 1) * PA
Clutchiness: WPA - (OPS Wins * pLI)
pLI: Average Leverage Index per Plate Appearance