Padres Return to Playoffs

by Geoff Young on Sep 30, 2006 (21) Comments

In my preseason preview at Baseball Think Factory, I predicted that the Padres would fall off a bit from last year’s performance and finish with 80 wins. At the All-Star break, on the strength of their solid first-half performance, I revised my original estimate upward to 85 victories.

I’m happy to report that, thanks in part to Saturday afternoon’s 3-1 triumph over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Padres have exceeded even my revised, more optimistic total and now have 87 wins on the season. More importantly, for the first time in the franchise’s 38-year history, the Friars have reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons.

Among the many endearing aspects of this year’s Padres is the resiliency they’ve shown throughout the season. How many times have they been dismissed by a national sports media that had no interest in seeing a team from San Diego reach the playoffs? The assumption was that the Padres would fade down the stretch, wilt under the pressure, be devastated by a historical loss at Dodger Stadium on September 18 or a crushing home run off the bat of Albert Pujols a little over a week later.

Too bad the media didn’t get buy-in from the guys playing the games before making those proclamations.

On September 1, the Padres found themselves down by 4 games to a surging Dodgers club that had made a number of high-profile moves at the trade deadline, and were hanging on to the NL wild card by the narrowest of margins. The Pads’ record at the time was 68-66. Since then, in what is supposed to be a stretch of season that separates the men from the boys, the men from San Diego have gone 19-8.

All that’s left to decide now is which of the Padres and Dodgers enter the post-season as NL West champions and which as the wild card. If the Padres win on Sunday, they’re champs due to their 13-5 record against Los Angeles in 2006. If the Pads lose, they still win the division if the Dodgers somehow lose to a flat Giants team that seems more interested in going home for the winter than in playing baseball.

Either way, the Padres are returning to the dance. And as the 1987 Twins, 1997 Marlins, and 2003 Marlins (among others) can attest, once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen.

There’s no denying that now is a good time to be a fan of the San Diego Padres. Enjoy it.

IGD: Padres @ Diamondbacks (30 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 30, 2006 (361) Comments

first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: David Wells (2-5, 4.80 ERA) vs Juan Cruz (5-6, 4.27 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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Despite every outcome working against the Padres on Friday night, Baseball Prospectus has their odds of reaching the post-season at 95.8% with two games remaining. Clay Hensley made one bad pitch Friday (and upon further review, it wasn’t that bad of a pitch — Eric Byrnes went down and got it) and Livan Hernandez did what he does, which is throw a lot of junk and leave the opposition frustrated when he’s on. I’m not making excuses, just noting that sometimes you have to give the other team credit for coming out and competing when there isn’t necessarily anything in it for them beyond pride.

It’d be nice to see the Giants do the same against the Dodgers, but that is neither here nor there.

David Wells gets the start Saturday night for the Padres. I’d like to say something positive here, but I’m not feeling terribly inspired, so we’ll leave it at that. On a brighter note, the only members of the bullpen Bruce Bochy seems to trust have had two straight days off and should be good to go for these final two regular-season games.

Current Diamondbacks have had a fair amount of success against Wells, hitting .299/.322/.502 against him in 221 at-bats. The main culprits have been Luis Gonzalez (.409/.435/.773 in 22 AB), Eric Byrnes (.467/.529/.733 in 15 AB), and Robby Hammock (.500/.500/1.100 in 10 AB).

On the flip side, Juan Cruz gets the start for the Snakes. Matt Vasgersian and Tony Gwynn mentioned during Friday night’s telecast that Arizona manager Bob Melvin plans to give Cruz two innings before turning the game over to originally scheduled starter, Enrique Edgar Gonzalez. Both throw right-handed, although Cruz (801 OPS vs LHB, 626 OPS vs RHB) has much more pronounced lefty/righty splits than does Gonzalez (747 821 OPS vs LHB, 781 797 OPS vs RHB).

Scoreboard watching? Yeah, a little:

Don’t bonk. Go Padres!

IGD: Padres @ Diamondbacks (29 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 29, 2006 (132) Comments

first pitch: 6:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (11-11, 3.73 ERA) vs Livan Hernandez (12-13, 4.95 ERA)
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I never saw the morning til I stayed up all night
I never saw the sunshine til you turned out the light
I never saw my hometown until I stayed away too long
I never heard the melody, until I needed a song.

It has nothing whatsoever to do with baseball, but this is one of my favorite Tom Waits songs of all time and “San Diego” is in the title.

So there. Go Padres!

Friday Open Thread (29 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 29, 2006 (101) Comments

I had a few links gathered up but ran out of time to assemble them. Maybe you have some of your own to share. Or maybe you just want to bask in the glow of Thursday night’s victory over the Diamondbacks.

Anyone going to Phoenix to watch the games in person this weekend? Or even out to Petco Park to watch them on the giant screen? I’m planning to head downtown for the Sunday afternoon contest.

But enough about me. What’s on your mind?

IGD: Padres @ Diamondbacks (27 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 28, 2006 (139) Comments

first pitch: 6:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (10-14, 4.13 ERA) vs Miguel Batista (11-7, 4.36 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
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Unfortunately the Padres couldn’t hold off the Cardinals on Wednesday, and the Rockies couldn’t hold off the Dodgers, so the Pads’ lead in the NL West is back down to 1 game. And the Phillies, who needed 14 innings to beat the Nationals, aren’t letting go of their wild card dreams just yet.

So, this is our season. Four games in Phoenix.

Nobody said it would be easy.

Jake Peavy goes for the Padres in the opener, and he’s gotten hot at just the right time. Peavy has a 2.61 ERA over 72 1/3 innings since the beginning of August, and his peripheral numbers are strong as well.

Miguel Batista gets the call for the Diamondbacks. His ERA is a very respectable 3.59 since the All-Star break, but the other numbers don’t necessarily support it. He’s been stingy with the long ball in the second half, but walking and striking out four batters apiece per game isn’t exactly a recipe for sustainable success. Batista also has posted a much higher ERA at home than away, and his extreme lefty/righty splits play into the Padres’ favor. Lefties are hitting .318/.403/.486 against Batista this year, while righties are at .255/.309/.363.

The Snakes might appear to be vulnerable, but they always play the Padres tough. And I don’t buy that non-contenders are just mailing it in at this point of the season. They’ve got professional ballplayers on their team, too. Everyone wants to win; that’s why they play the games.

Nobody said it would be easy. But it sure will be fun. Go Padres!

Till It Hurts, Kiddo

by Geoff Young on Sep 27, 2006 (222) Comments

Reliever Cla Meredith was supposed to get Tuesday night off. Didn’t happen. Then he was supposed to get Wednesday night off. Didn’t happen.

I can live with the loss. I can even live with Albert Pujols and his ridiculous pose after the home run. It’s cause for celebration when your team avoids getting swept at home in September and breaks a seven-game losing streak. Besides, Pujols will have to stand in against the Padres’ pitchers at some point next year. I don’t sweat that stuff.

But what in the world is Bruce Bochy doing with his young reliever? Meredith has been unhittable most of the season, but there are other guys in the bullpen who can get batters out every once in a while and it’d be nice to see Meredith’s right arm still attached to the rest of his body come the playoffs and beyond.

For the record, here is Meredith’s week:

9/21: 1.1 IP, 14 pitches
9/22: 0.1 IP, 5 pitches
9/23: off
9/24: 2.0 IP, 24 pitches
9/25: 1.1 IP, 17 pitches
9/26: 1.0 IP, 12 pitches
9/27: 0.0 IP, 2 pitches

I defend Bochy a lot — probably moreso than some folks are comfortable with — but this is just plain wrong. It puts unnecessary strain on Meredith’s arm and sends a bad message to the rest of the bullpen.

Seriously, if you’re going to give the guy a day off, just do it. If you have to tell him not to come to the ballpark, do it. Bringing in Meredith even for one batter on Wednesday was irresponsible, and I’d be saying that even if he’d gotten Pujols out.

IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (27 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 27, 2006 (113) Comments

first pitch: 5:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (11-5, 3.55 ERA) vs Anthony Reyes (5-7, 4.92 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
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The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres are tied for the big-league lead with 17 wins in September. The Twins have lost 8 games this month, while the Pads have lost 7.

Only the Toronto Blue Jays (2.66) have a better ERA than the Padres (2.80) in September. Opponents are hitting just .236/.298/.373 against Padres pitching. The club has outscored its opposition, 114-77, this month.

Tonight’s starter, Chris Young, has the second highest ERA (2.92) among Padres starters in September and he almost tossed a no-no last week. If ever there were a time to use the tired cliche “firing on all cylinders,” now would be it.

Go Padres!

Wednesday Morning Notes

by Geoff Young on Sep 27, 2006 (71) Comments

Just a few bullet points today. As always, feel free to add anything I may have missed:


  • Peter Friberg breaks down Albert Pujols’ at-bat against Cla Meredith in Monday night’s game. I’m in total agreement here; you just don’t see Pujols take swings like the one he took on that 2-2 pitch. Meredith had some sick, sick movement on that thing.
  • Peter’s also got a nice recap of Tuesday night’s victory and a look at who might play whom in the playoffs. It’s too early for me to seriously think about that latter question, but I think Peter makes two great points about the game last night. First, the home plate umpire was brutal — he took the bat out of Russell Branyan’s hands during a key at-bat in the seventh and did the same to Geoff Blum two batters later. Fortunately, Mike Cameron hit a two-run single between those two to give the Padres the lead. That single, incidentally, came on an 0-2 pitch that caught way too much plate. Yadier Molina was set up a foot outside, but a visibly exhausted Chris Carpenter missed his spot and Cameron made him pay.
  • Exhausted or not, Carpenter is a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate (heck, he won the thing last year), and I echo Peter’s sentiments that the Padres deserve a great deal of credit for coming back against a guy who hadn’t allowed more than four runs in a game at home all season. For kicks, here’s how Carpenter had performed over his previous five starts at Busch Stadium: 42 IP, 20 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 5 BB, 34 SO. Point is, when you beat a guy like that on his turf, it’s not something to take for granted. The Padres never were intimidated by one of the league’s finest and got to him in a way that few others have in 2006.
  • What else? Oh, yes — the folks at Outsider Radio were kind enough to have me on yesterday’s show. It’s mostly review material for you guys, but whatever we can do to spread the word. Big thanks to Brandon Rosage and Joe Jackson for letting me riff on the Padres for 20 minutes.
  • The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Khalil Greene is close to returning. Geoff Blum has done a surprisingly good job in his absence, but this is a totally different ball club if a healthy Greene is able to play in the post-season. Also, Brian Giles, who sprained an ankle while rounding second on Tuesday, will miss tonight’s finale. The injury isn’t considered serious and Giles is expected back in the lineup “within a few days.”
  • Others have mentioned this to me in private, and reader LaMar notes it in yesterday’s IGD comments: Why isn’t there much buzz about Kevin Towers as potential executive of the year? Jay ran some numbers the other day, and they paint a pretty compelling picture. As demonstrated by the “experts” who can’t figure out why the Padres are still contending this late in the season, Towers and the entire front office have done a tremendous job with this club.

We’ll have the IGD up and running at 4 p.m. PT as the Padres look to sweep the Cardinals in St. Louis. I’ve got a fever, and the only prescription is more playoffs. Go Padres!

IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (26 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 26, 2006 (272) Comments

first pitch: 5:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (10-5, 3.53 ERA) vs Chris Carpenter (15-7, 2.93 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
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Chris Carpenter continues his unlikely transformation from mid-rotation starter to perennial Cy Young Award contender via 1 1/2 years of inactivity due to injury. His is not the recommended career path for pitchers, but it’s hard to argue with success.

Looking for chinks in Carpenter’s armor? Good luck with that. Lefties hit him better than righties, which works in the Padres’ favor until you realize that lefties don’t hit him all that well (.254/.302/.406). His ERA since the All-Star break is a whopping 2.78. Carpenter has been remarkably consistent in 2006. In April his ERA was 1.80, and the following month 3.96. Just calibrating the instruments. In the four months that followed, Carpenter’s ERA has fluctuated mildly between 2.82 and 3.27.

Oh here, I think I found a weakness: Carpenter’s ERA on the road is 4.70. Too bad he’s pitching at home tonight, where it’s 1.46 over 117 innings. Opponents are hitting just .201/.245/.279 against Carpenter at Busch Stadium.

Incidentally, this is why you want home-field advantage in the playoffs if it comes down to Padres vs Cardinals: Carpenter’s road ERA of 4.70 is actually the best among St. Louis starters. As a team, the Cards are 34-47 away from Busch, with a 5.19 ERA. At home, they are much too comfortable, going 46-28 with a 3.86 ERA. As we learned last October, the less you have to face them in their house, the better.

Individual performances against Carpenter? Not much. Current Padres are hitting .200/.271/.369 against him. Mike Cameron (.211/.304/.579 in 19 AB) and Brian Giles (.313/.353/.500 in 16 AB) have had the most success. Russell Branyan and Mike Piazza have each homered off Carpenter and enjoyed some success in limited appearances. Todd Walker has the only other home run, but you can bet he won’t be in the lineup: his overall line against Carpenter is .063/.091/.156 in 32 at-bats. Is that even legal?

On the Padres’ side, Woody Williams hasn’t fared quite as well against his old uniform. Current Cardinals are batting .268/.322/.514 against the veteran. Damage is coming from the weirdest places, too. Williams has manhandled the likes of Scott Rolen (.118/.158/.118 in 17 AB) and Jim Edmonds (.158/.200/.158 in 19 AB) but is getting pummeled by Scott Spiezio (.273/.333/1.091 in 11 AB), Preston Wilson (.353/.450/.882 in 17 AB), Ronnie Belliard (.385/.471/.846 in 13 AB), and Juan Encarnacion (.417/.417/.667 in 13 AB). Williams has faced Albert Pujols just three times, allowing one hit — yes, a home run.

It’s scoreboard watching time, too. Other games of note today include the Phillies at Nationals, Astros at Pirates, and Dodgers at Rockies. I’ve highlighted all of those matchups over at Knuckle Curve for those interested.

Good to take that first one in St. Louis. Good to see Scott Linebrink close out the game while Trevor Hoffman got the night off after his record-setting performance on Sunday.

Today is another day. I know in this division, a 2-game lead seems huge, but the Dodgers aren’t going to go away quietly, so it’s back to taking care of business. Today’s matchup doesn’t necessarily work in the Padres’ favor, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned about the club from San Diego this season, it’s that they battle. If Williams can keep the game close for six innings or so and give his bullpen a shot against the Cardinals’ bullpen, the Padres have a chance.

And right now, a chance is all we need. Go Padres!

IGD: Padres @ Cardinals (25 Sep 06)

by Geoff Young on Sep 25, 2006 (221) Comments

first pitch: 5:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: David Wells (2-5, 4.80) vs Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.07 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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The Padres head to St. Louis in a matchup of the two NL division leaders that are still looking to clinch a playoff spot. The Padres’ magic number is 6, while the Cardinals’ is 5. The Friars also are up 2 1/2 games on St. Louis in the battle for home-field advantage in the first round.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

David Wells remains in search of his first win since returning to the Padres. Right now he is easily the weakest link in the rotation, and it’d be nice to see him get into a groove. The good news is, he hasn’t looked terrible in his four starts for San Diego. The bad news is, “hasn’t looked terrible” doesn’t really cut it when you’re gunning for the playoffs.

Current Cardinals are batting .293/.321/.537 against Wells in 147 at-bats. Scott Rolen (.444/.444/1.222 in 9 AB), Jim Edmonds (.314/.351/.629 in 35 AB), and Juan Encarnacion (.292/.320/.583 in 24 AB) have been the chief culprits.

Meantime, Jeff Suppan continues to excel at getting the maximum out of the minimum. He allows a ton of hits, he doesn’t have impeccable control, and he doesn’t strike people out. All he does is win games and post respectable ERAs. And unfortunately for the Padres, he’s got a couple other things working for him: Suppan has a 2.97 ERA over 97 innings at home this year, and a remarkable 2.04 ERA over 83 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. Difficult to explain, but there it is.

Current Padres are batting .326/.379/.624 against Suppan in 178 at-bats. Mike Piazza (.533/.533/1.533) has five homers in 15 at-bats. Dave Roberts (.667/.700/1.111 in 9 AB), Geoff Blum (.571/.571/.714 in 14 AB), and Brian Giles (.273/.370/.545 in 24 AB) also have enjoyed success against the finesse right-hander.

Big series at Busch begins tonight. Go Padres!