Geez, this is supposed to be the off-season. Busy, busy, busy…
- Two articles in today’s U-T on Bud Black, formally introduced Thursday night as the Padres’ new manager: The Buddy system and Compromise or consensus, it’s Bud’s job. Interesting look at Black, as well as the process that led to his hiring.
- Padres’ new manager is feeling ‘fabulous’ (North County Times). The usual stuff, plus a non-update on the Darren Balsley situation: “After speaking with Balsley on Wednesday, Black said he’s inclined to bring him back, although negotiations on a new contract remain in Towers’ hands.” Well, okay; let’s get it done, then.
- 2006 All-OOPs Team (Baseball Analysts). Rich Lederer identifies the most overrated offensive players in 2006. Ex-Padre Jay Payton makes the list, while Josh Barfield merits an honorable mention.
- Roster management and why it’s important (USS Mariner). Fascinating discussion on the nuances of building a big-league team. Very well thought out, plus it contains gems like, “This is why catchers with odd skillsets seem at times like fetish objects of the stathead community.”
- Net Stolen Bases: Leaders and Laggards (Baseball Analysts). Who were the most efficient base stealers in 2006? Well, Dave Roberts led the National League, and as a team, the Padres were second to the Mets. Defensively, the Pads were, um — hey, would you look at that offense!
- Gold Gloves by team? Interesting concept. Jeff at Lookout Landing identifies the Padres as the best defensive team in the big leagues. This makes for a nice companion piece to Chris Dial’s individual NL Gold Gloves from a couple weeks ago. We all know this already, but that really was a spectacular outfield last year.
- Crunch on This (Dodger Thoughts, via Baseball Musings). Jon Weisman talks about the J.D. Drew incident. Drew, in case you missed it, opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, thus becoming a free agent. Apparently the Dodgers didn’t see this coming. The salient points for Padres fans are:
- Drew is a Scott Boras client, and the Pads just shipped the last one of those (Barfield) out of town, so forget it.
- I like Ned Coletti better as the Dodgers GM than Paul DePodesta. Of course, in a perfect world, they’d bring back Tommy Lasorda.
- Chasing the Big Numbers 5 – Wins (Batters Box). How do some of today’s brightest young starting pitchers compare against the all-time greats at a similar stage in their careers? This piece is looking strictly at wins, but it’s an interesting read.
- Evaluating Managers, Part 3 (Baseball Think Factory). Man, I’m behind on my reading. I’ve only had a chance to skim this one, but it promises to be a fun read. Chris Jaffe attempts to determine the influence different managers have on their team’s success. Bruce Bochy does well according to Jaffe’s methodology, placing 12th among 34 managers examined. Surprisingly, Dusty Baker shows up at #6. Jaffe goes into pretty good detail on several of the managers. Fun stuff.
I could go on, but I’m out of time. Is it spring training yet?
160 Comments
First things first, happy birthday to the USMC…now if we can only do something about the frequency of deployments overseas (7-months deployed, 7-months home, 7-months deployed, etc).
I was unaware that Barfield was a Boras client, so given that there are now no longer any Boras clients on the Padres I think it would be safe to say that we could narrow the number of FAs under consideration by scratching out the names of the Boras clients. Basically, we won’t see Zito or Drew here anytime soon, so who are the alternatives? I hope Balsley didn’t pick Boras as his agent.
Based upon what I heard SA say on XX the other night, Iwamura at second and the left-handed SP (Igawa?) seem to be possibilities from Japan. IMHO, we need a big right-handed stick (or 2) in the lineup…who are some of the non-Boras possibilities?
Sheffield is the chief RH basher available, also Burrell and Lee. Lee is a FA who, I believe, is repped by Boras, so he might be out. Burrell is available, but is owed quite a bit of money over the next 2 seasons. However, he’s probably a bit better than Lee (better fielder, draws a lot more walks), and the Padres could have him for a bag of balls and a couple signed bats, if they wanted him. The Phillies have soured on him, which is a bit of a red light, but considering they gave up on Abreau, traded him for nothing, and he was dominant in NY last season might give more insight into the Phils front-office than any perceived deficiencies in Burrel’s abilities. He’s only had one bad season, ‘03, when he hit 209 but still drew 72 walks and hit 21 Hrs. His line last year, in what was widely viewed as a disappointment, was:
144G 462AB 80R 24(2b) 29HR 95RBI 98BB 131K .258 /.388/ .502
The other two guys (Sheff and Lee) are going to be more expensive. I think Drew is a better option than all of these guys, but he is a Boras client and is very obviously a selfish player far more concerned with money than anything else. He’s a straight up mercenary, and an oft-injured one at that.
Doesn’t Koozy look alot like CR Jr?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20061109-9999-1s9barfield.html
I was talking to Peter Friberg yesterday and I couldn’t remember who it was and when I look at his picture this morning it hit me. It Cal’s bodydouble.
2: Drew’s injury history and representation make him a less than desirable target. Burrell is interesting, though. I’d like to see the Padres look into acquiring him.
I’m with you, Richard. I’d love to see Burrell come to SD. He’s one of those guys with power that will play in any park.
Maybe Burrell IS the “named” guy that KT and SA have alluded towards?
Someone call Philly Billy at XX to see if KT has asked him to call Burrell and try to covince him to waive his no-trade clause to San Diego
#4 and 5
The more I look at it, I am also warming up to Burrell. Despite the Phillies’ lack of confidence in him, there’s not much in the record to fault. Having said that, his contract is more than a little unwieldy, and I can’t imagine Philly would take on any of his money to get rid of him. Still, he’s an absolute masher, only 29 years old, and a much better option than Sheffield or Lee, IMHO. And we could get him for, literally, nothing. McAnulty alone might be enough.
Pat Burrell’s RISP is pretty scary, but he’s actually a better offensive player than I thought. Very nice OBP considering his BA. He’d definitely come cheaper than Sheff, right? Philly’s dying to drop him.
friarfan: I have seen numerous places showing that Burrell’s low BA with RISP is a one year fluke. In 2005 he was one of the best hitters in baseball in those situations. By comparison, Soriano had a similarly low BA with RISP this year and in 2005. Burrell would be a great addition, and he has a two year contract paying him less annually than Lee, Soriano, and Drew will get for longer term deals.
I’m on the Burrell-bandwagon…
Just out of curiosity — and mainly because I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere — now that JD Drew may head to Boston, what’s the thought about Trot Nixon getting on somewhere? I almost wonder if he might be better to have around than Giles, because a) he’s cheaper and b) he can work a count.
Of course, Giles’ contract makes a move prohibitive, but Nixon seems like a pretty decent option for someone to grab on the cheap somewhere.
This from the Phillies official website http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061106&content_id=1735305&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi
“Regardless of whether they land Soriano, the Phillies will continue to shop left fielder Pat Burrell, and they remain willing to absorb a good portion of the $27 million he’s owed over the next two seasons.”
Sounds like he may even be “cheap” relatively speaking, and depending on what they are expecting in return.
One question though, it sounds like he has the bat they are looking for. Whats the problem, besides their lack of confidence in him?
I’m excited by the possibility of acquiring Burrell as well, for all of the reasons listed above. His park adjusted OPS is below .800 for the last two years, but I do think that getting out of Philly would lead to big seasons for him, even with Petco’s spacious dimensions. He’d fit great in the middle of our lineup for the next few years.
I’m also intrigued by Iwamura, but if we’re going to have to teach someone how to play 2nd, what about Nomar instead. This lineup looks pretty potent to me:
Giles LF
Garciaparra 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Burrell LF
Cameron CF
Bard C
Kouzmanoff 3B
Greene SS
It would have to be one of the better lineups in the NL. If we can add Igawa as well, I think we’ve had a pretty good offseason.
It looks like Glavine may be filing for free agency today (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2655800), I’d like to see the Padres make a run at him if he does (he apparently has the same agent as David Wells).
How about Josh Williingham for LF? I am sure the Marlins would listen to an offer seeing how badly they need pitching.
Glavine is only listening to two teams: Atlanta & New York…
Buster Olney is reporting the Red Sox may have bid between $38 and $45 million for Matsuzaka. Insane.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2656687
#17
I read that too, but it wouldn’t hurt to at least inquire. Maybe he would show a little interest if we signed Maddux as well (for that old Atlanta feel). By the same token, he may be afraid to come to San Diego for fear that he would be mugged for the Cy Young he won in ‘98 that many Padre fans thought should have gone to Trevor Hoffman.
#18
If that’s true, and they’re the top bidder, who are the leading candidates for Boston to move to clear out some salary?
19:
The Cy Young Award should have gone to Kevin Brown.
20: Manny?
I bet Peter is pissed… The TIGERS just got Sheffield!
Me I am just happy to see him taint someone else’s clubhouse with his “team” attitude!
The Tigers have acquired Gary Sheffield. The Yankees received three pitching prospects, inlcuding a top level one. The Tigers received permission to negotiate with Sheffield and reached an agreement on an extension.
It doesn’t sound like the Padres were players for Sheffield.
Bummer. I was loving the idea of Sheff II. Anyhoo, moving on…Pat the Bat’s Park-adjusted OPS worries me, but I agree he’ll be primed for a fresh start getting out of Philly. Trade the OG for him. OG could maybe have a good power year at Citizens Bank Park. Net-net on the salary is pretty close…
#14: my problem with that lineup is the leadoff man. I do not believe OG will walk as many times in the #1 spot as he did in the #3 hole. Then you’re stuck with something like .260/.300/.350 from your leadoff guy, with no SB potential for upside.
#20/#22 – Manny would certainly make 2007 a very interesting year on and off the field for the usually personality-less Padres (with the exception of the times when Wells rolls onto the roster).
Sheffied was one of the guys I wanted, but nec. the guy I wanted the most… I’m glad we didn’t give up more than 3 prospects.
I heard at our watercooler that Garciaparra signed. I don’t know with whom. Anybody hear anything?
Singned where San Diego?
oh… I guess that’s what happens when I forget to read everything!
Accoding to ESPN, Igawa has been given permission by his Japanese club to persue an MLB career.
I can’t find anything anywhere on Nomah, and I ask the supposed source, and he said no, he hadn’t heard anything, so sorry about starting that rumor!
Free Agents can’t sign until Sunday.
What do you folks think about the ssssnakes new uni’s? It seems like everyone is going red or blue lately. I wonder if it has anything to do with the one world government theory :>)
Thanks for the reminder Mitch
Although they can sign with their old club, so he could have signed with the doggers, but apprently didn’t, yet.
So I’ve read 3 different things toady reguarding Matsuzaka…
1. Being that the team that posted Matsuzaka was upset that the winning bid was so low and were discussing letting him go at all.
2. The Red Sox bid around 40 million to get him.
3. That the Rangers have won with a top bid over 30 million.
Also on http://www.mlbtraderumors.com there is a link up asking for a translation because it is some sort of asian language that is supposed to say that the Yankees have won.
So in other words, all the teams that were supposed to be serious about him have apparently won. That $20 – $30 million posting fee he was supposed to bring in was accurate. And that last rumor I heard the other day about the actual posting fee landing around $11 million sounds like it probably true too.
I wish I could get paid for writing and circulating false rumors too!
KRS1: I’ve been reading all those same rumors thinking, “Who’s got the lousiest sources our of this crowd?”
Clayton, I’m curious what makes you think teams are less likely to walk Giles if he bats leadoff. Are the Padres’ 2 & 3 hitters likely to be more frightening relative to Giles than our 4 & 5 hitters were this past year? I really don’t think teams were intentionally walking Giles to get to Piazza and Gonzalez. The guy simply has great plate discipline.
This about Koozy’s from his former AAA manager on scout.com
http://padres.scout.com/2/588919.html
“For me, the thing that makes Kevin special is what nobody sees,†Lovullo said. “People see him hitting nearly .400 on offense, and they see him hitting home runs and driving the ball and making good plays on defense.
But what I get to see is what is inside these clubhouse walls. It’s a guy who is passionate about baseball. It’s an intense competitor who has a strike-first attitude. He wants to attack you before you even think about jumping on him. He has a championship mentality. “
Sounds like a good guy to have on your team.
Clayton-
I have to agree with #39. If Garciaparra is batting behind Giles he’ll get pitched around quite a bit more than when Josh Bard was hitting clean-up behind him for chunks of last year. Walks certainly can be related to protection in the lineup, but I don’t think that there is anyway that Giles will post a .300 OBP in his career. He’s not going to lose almost 100 points on his OBP because Nomah is backing him up.
Also, like Peter, I’m glad that the Padres did not pay for Sheffield if that was the price. I wonder how much salary the Yankees are picking up. Sanchez is a pretty high price to pay, to say nothing of the other two prospects that the Yankees got in the deal. Cashman seems to have made a pretty good deal here. He bought himself another top 15 RHP prospect and rid himself of a sulking slugger in the same deal.
3 in a row!
I’d love to see the Padres talk to Tampa about one of their surplus OFers. I’d be thrilled to see Baldelli in a Padres uniform. They might be interested in Linebrink as a closer, no?
With all the Burrell discussion, here’s a link to a recent Crasnick article at ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2653713
Didn’t KT already guarantee Ben Johnson a starting spot in the Pads 2007 outfield?
44 – I would seriously doubt it.
Johnson is pretty good, but he’s only a starter if we were getting .300/.400/.600 seasons out of Giles. With Giles’ current production levels, we need more out of LF to counteract Giles’ decline (even w/ his decline, he’s still a valuable player).
Paul R & I were just discussing potential trade solutions between San Diego and Philly. We agreed that a Linebrink-Headley for Burrell-Floyd made sense for both teams. If either team felt slighted, the other team could throw in a low-level arm.
What about Catalanotto, Craig Wilson for cheap LF?
46: Wilson’s more of a first baseman, isn’t he?
In one sense I wouldn’t mind Wilson, but he’s essentially an older, less-athletic Ben Johnson.
I want one of:
Burrell
Alou
Soriano
even Luis Gonzalez
or let Terrmel Sledge start before Wilson…
Someone’s likely already posted this (and if so, I apologize) … here’s one man’s (Yahoo’s Jeff Passan) look at 101 free agents … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=A0Je5S6KRlVFiG8BwwMRvLYF?slug=jp-freeagents110906&prov=yhoo&type=lgns … decent preview.
48: I’m okay with three of those four names. Bet you can’t guess which one I’ against. ha
Today Philly (“Shrill”) Billy was saying how the Padres had to show us fans they were serious and go out and sign Soriano…
Now, keep in mind, unlike Richard, I’m not anti-Soriano (I am anti-Soriano if it takes a 6-year deal), but I wanted to call in on the show and ask Billy if he could choose a San Diego World Series or an Alphonso Soriano-signing, which would he choose?
Now I don’t think a Soriano-signing would preclude a trip to the WS for the Padres, but he could cost enough to prevent us from doing other stuff which might prevent us from going to the WS…
51: Are you in favor of a $75M, 5 year deal?
Also, in response to the Philly Billy assertion, I’d say the Padres showed they were serious when they let Bochy walk, then traded a fan favorite.
re: 53 … right on! SA is one serious dude … I like him!
53 – EXACTLY!
And let another fan-fave (Roberts) walk in a FA year…
I’d probably do 5/$75 – I think – but only after I had tried to sign Alou…
I’d rather do 5/$75 for Zito than Soriano…
56: Me, too. And I’m not that high on Zito.
55: I’m really not sure Soriano is even a $10M/year guy.
Unrelated, can we all agree that Kouzmanoff cannot be nicknamed “Kouz?”
Oh come on, where’s the sense of literary fun? If we name him Kouz, then his HRs can be Kouz-missles…
60: See, but even that still sounds dirty.
I must be getting old an becoming un-hip, I don’t get it…
Keith Law has a new analysis on ESPN.com, of Sheff and Barfield trades. He writes that “San Diego got one of the stathead darlings of the moment in Kevin Kouzmanoff, and they’re talking about giving him an everyday role in left field. … ”
Has anyone else reported this?
… “I think he’s a singles/doubles hitter, with fringe-average power at best, that might play at third base, where his range is limited and his hands a little hard, but it won’t play in left.”
One other Keith Law tidbit. He did a Top 40 FAs. Zito was No. 15. Pitchers ahead of him: D-Mat (2), Jason Schmidt (4), Roger Clemens (5), Andy Pettite (6), Mike Mussina (11) Ted Lilly (12) and Gil Meche (13).
There isn’t an obvious “bang-for-your-buck” component to the article, but it must be implied. Ted Lilly over Zito?
Thought I’d post just to see if I remembered how. But seriously enjoying reading the, as usual, great analysis and fine writing from GY and the intelligent discussion of the ’snortin’ gang.
My only comments on the off-season thus far: very pleased to have Black on board, definitely like the Kouz pick up, altho’ mostly cause of the nickname, and think the Burrell idea is the best I’ve heard lately (tho’ I find Alou intriguing as well).
Only thing new to add to the discussion is actually just a reminder. As I pointed out in the aftermath of the Linebrink-Betemit non-deal, Linebrink’s trend is downhill:
Year – ARP – Fair RA:
2004 – 32.6 – 1.53
2005 – 22.3 – 2.21
2006 – 12.6 – 3.44
His perceived value is still quite high. So… SELL…SELL… SELL! while you can still get something tasty.
Law & I used to exchange e-mails quite a bit. But I think he’s just wrong, wrong, wrong on this one.
I’ll take consistent above-average over possibly great but oft-injured (Pettite) every day of the week.
Schmidt is better than Zito?
I’d love to sign Meche. He has a chance to regain the form a lot us saw, but his best ERA is 3.78. His 2nd best ERA is 4.48… Better than Zito?
I can see why Riccardi let Law go…
66: A number of people whose opinions I respect considered that more an indictment of Ricciardi. Personally, I don’t know what to make of that situation.
Apologies for the spam, I asked Geoff and he said it was ok to post this here.
If anyone is into OOTP2006, I’m part of a new league that still has a few openings. We’re starting in 1975 and some of the available teams are slotted very high in the draft. This is your chance to manage Nolan Ryan, Reggie Jackson and even Randy Jones. Open teams: Detroit, KC, Minnesota, Texas, Philly, the Cubs, Houston, San Francisco and Atlanta. Remember, there’s an inaugural draft so whatever team you pick you still have a shot at Jerry Turner and Enzo Hernandez!
Unlike most OOTP leagues we have a fee of $20 per calendar year, which will be donated to charity. Details are still being worked on but most likely the league will vote on who gets the donation.
You can get more details here:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showthread.php?t=132497
If you’re not familiar with OOTP, it’s an incredibly deep baseball sim that’s great for solo play or online leagues. Personally I think it’s a lot more fun than fantasy baseball and it’s something to pass the time during the off season.
Richard, Paul-
As the leadoff guy, Giles will see more strikes next year. He’s consistently shown over the last 2 years that he can’t do much with them. Doesn’t matter who’s hitting #2 or #3, no pitcher wants to get the leadoff guy on, and knowing how his bat has declined will induce more pitchers to dare him to hit it. So yes, to me it seems very probable his walks will decline significantly w/o a corresponding gain in average or power.
In the paper today Towers announces that the Padres did bid on Iwamura and that his possible acquisition does not change plans for Kouz. Iwamura would be a 2B or super-utility guy. Sounds like a pretty good use of a versatile player. I hope that we get him and that he can play second.
Okay, I’m confused.
Recently reported facts/opinions are:
We get Kouzi (I prefer that, since it rhymes with Uzi), who KT says will play 3rd base. Law, however, in his ESPN blog, says Kouzi is projected by the Pads as a left fielder.
The UT reports that we bid on Iwamura. While Iwamura plays 2nd, and has said he’d play anywhere, he’s the Japanese equivalent of a gold glover at 3rd. So, is Law right and KT is merely putting up a smoke screen on Kouzi?
KT, also in the UT says that Piazza and DR remain possibilities “if we can find a “power bat.” Absent some other openings being created via trades, 2nd base and LF seems our only location to add said “power bat.” (Unless you believe Law, then 3b also fits.) If you throw out Law’s statement, then 2B has to be the target for a “power bat,” since DR wouldn’t remain if the “power bat” comes from LF.
I haven’t figured out a scenario that makes all these pieces fit. Anyone else have any ideas or should I put this in the off-season mis-direction doublespeak?
Here’s the U-T article referenced in #70.
I haven’t heard anyone but Law talk about Kouzmanoff in LF. Seems to me that Iwamura would play 2B. I also find it interesting that, according to the same U-T article, the Pads will explore the possibility of signing J.D. Drew.
Since DePodesta signed Drew to the Dodgers, I figured that he was the type of player that fit our “profile” assuming we have one. However, I’m not a big fan of J.D., since I don’t like his injury history and, although I may be wrong, he looks like he dogs it.
Drew opted out of $11MM per, right? Is he really worth more than that to the Padres? Maybe…I have to admit I don’t care much for him, but that’s sort of superficial based on him a) being a Dodger; b) seeming to have an attitude; c) always being injured and d) having Boras for an agent.
I was at a Dodgers game last year where Drew absolutely dogged it on a softly hit ball hit to right field. He had a very good shot at catching it but pulled up very early and played it on the bounce. It didn’t look like he would have had to dive for it either, just run really hard and scoop it. It wasn’t hit hard enough to go far if it got past him. Even the Philly fan I was sitting next to was amazed that he didn’t hustle. Granted it’s just one play and maybe he had injury concerns but it looked really bad.
The Kouz to LF scenario doesn’t make a lot of sense since 3B has been a black hole. I would think he’ll get every chance to prove himself at the hot corner.
The only scenario I can see where Roberts comes back is we sign Soriano and let him play 2B. If that happens and Iwamura comes in as a replacement for Blumhorn we’ll have a pretty powerful and flexible lineup.
Another potential topic for conversation comes from a comment that SA threw out on the XX interview last Wed. He said that he believed that Bud Black’s inexperience in the NL could be offset by hiring a strong bench coach. I take it from that comment that Tony M. is not considered to be a strong bench coach by SA. Any ideas on a replacement?
Law is an idiot. Kouz is here for 3B. If he plays his way off it, LF could be a possibility.
Clayton (#68), you said, “[Giles has] consistently shown over the last 2 years that he can’t do much with them.”
Huh?
In 2005 Giles had 38 doubles and 15 home runs.
In 2006 Giles had 37 doubles and 14 home runs.
Furthermore in each year he had 100+ BB and 60ish SO (115/64 in ‘05 & 104/60 in ‘06)… He even had nearly the same amount of hits each season (164 in ‘05 and 159 in ‘06). The difference was, in 2006 he had 604 AB and in 2005 he had 545 AB. So his rate-stats decreased…
I expect Giles to have a bit of a bounce-back season in ‘07.
Career: .295/.408/.525
2005: .301/.423/.483
2006: .263/.374/.397
I expect something like .280/.390/.450 next year out of Giles.
Thank you to all veterans and members of the military for your service to our country.
Thanks goodness Detriot picked up Sheff.
Regarding J.D. Drew, the worst a player can do is strike out. Putting the ball in play at least gives baserunners the opportunity to advance.
The ideal player is a guy who walks quite a bit, doesn’t strike out at all, and has power and the athleticism & ability to excell defensively.
for instance check out this ideal player:
Career: .325/.398/.579 760 BB & 369 SO… And he played at least a very good CF…
That player was Joe Dimaggio
Now I’m not comparing J.D. to Joltin’ Joe, but Drew walks roughly as much as much as he strikes out and he doesn’t strike out as much as a lot of guys w/ his power…
Peter – on what could you base Giles having a bounceback year? He’s a year older, still in Petco, and if you believe the rumours about his past success, still off the juice. Plus, he’s got a fat contract and has not shown any real passion for the game…the kind of passion that would get you motivated to prove others wrong. That doesn’t mean he dogs it, but I don’t ever see him with any kind of chip on his shoulder.
I would love to see it (a bounceback season), don’t get me wrong, but I can’t see how you can expect it. The HR/doubles #s you show prove the point…sure he’s hitting mid-30’s 2Bs, but he’s done that every year. It’s not that he’s replaced HRs w/ 2Bs due to Petco, he just gets out more.
1999: 33 2Bs / 39 HRs
2000: 37/35
2001: 37/37
2002: 37/38
then the decline:
2003: 34/20 –> this is where KT bought, which is what I hate
2004: 33/23
2005: 38/15
2006: 37/14
At his age, players don’t rebound like you’re predicting w/o either chemical help (Bonds) or a burning fire in their belly to prove critics wrong. The former better not be an option, and he doesn’t ever show anything like the latter.
Clayton, on what are you basing your assertion that Giles doesn’t play with passion? I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone come in harder trying to break up a double play. I consider his level of effort to be a strength, not a weakness.
As for bouncing back, players tend to regress to the mean. Last year looks like an aberration — particularly in the power department. Peter’s projection seems pretty reasonable to me.
Geoff, I’m not doubting hustle, I doubting the overall commitment to work harder this offseason to get better, the passion to overcome his decline. I just don’t see it, and I watch almost every Padre game. Would love to be wrong. Breaking up double plays in the heat of the game is different from working hard in December/January/February rather than hitting the beach and taking it easy. Especially at his age.
He’s not regressing back to the previous mean. His new level is what it is, and he’ll have to fight to get above it – which is where I think he’d rather tan and surf than work harder than before. Just my prediction. I hated trading Bay and Perez for him, hated giving him a huge contract last year, and continue to feel like he isn’t worth the money.
Guys of his caliber don’t fall off the table, they gradually get worse…
David Juctice is a good comp:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats_historical/mlb_player_locator_results.jsp?playerLocator=justice
Look at his career numbers: .279/.378/.500
He had some randomly bad years mixed in w/ some good ones but he followed a basic downward trend. That’s why I predict what I do for giles. Notice I don’t predict above career average levels, I predict him continuing to bring down his career numbers. Just better than last year.
Interesting. I don’t know what Giles’ work habits are like in the off-season, but it seems curious to me that a guy would slack off over the winter and then bust tail during the season.
I’m also not ready to base his “new level” on a single season versus previous history. What Giles did last year is way out of line with anything he’d done prior to that.
David Justice may be a good comp…trust me, I more hope you’re right than I am. I’m just worried that I am and if KT doesn’t do something about it we’ll all regret it next year, especially with him batting leadoff.
I propose “K2″ as a “nickname” for our new Kevin Kouzmanoff!
PF – I don’t think your un-hip … or else I am … wait, that’s very likely … anyway, I think it’s the “ooze” part of “Kouz” that Richard’s objecting to … at least that’s the part I’m objecting to … and the cliche element …
Eh, I’m not big on “nicknames” anyway … took me forever to figure out who “Big Papi” was … and when I read #64, I still don’t know who “D-Mat” is (Don Mattingly???) …
re: hot stove … I’d be happy signing Eaton &/or Meche … I want the Padres to spend their big money on a bat … I’d have been happy with Sheffield … I’m mixed on Soriano … down on Lee … up on Aramis (but now he doesn’t really fit, does he) … I’d be OK with Drew … how about Nomar for 2B? … if we have to “go cheap”, then how about Dellucci?
84 – some guys are just gamers. They love competing, but once you take them out of the game, the will to exert maximum effort fades.
I don’t personally know or observe him, so take it for what it’s worth. I know I’ve read more than once what a laid back guy he is off the field, how much he enjoys the offseason, etc. Add that to the perfect tan he sports every spring (and the subsequent need to supplement it w/ the spray on once he doesn’t have the time to lay out every day).
Anyway, my dream of swapping OG for the Sheff is dead. If he’s still there next year, I’ll cheer as hard as ever, hoping I get proven wrong.
Here’s 2 notes from rotoworld.com … based on articles in the UT …
The Padres have some interest in retaining free agent Mike Piazza, but adding a power-hitting left fielder appears to be the priority.
If GM Kevin Towers spends big to fill the hole in his outfield, he’ll likely be content to have Josh Bard catch and Rob Bowen serve as the backup. “There’s a chance,” Towers said when asked if Piazza could return. “If we go into the season with Bard and Bowen, I’ll be very comfortable. With Mike, it all depends on whether we acquire another power bat.”
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
Alfonso Soriano-OF- Nationals Nov. 11 – 12:21 pm et
Padres GM Kevin Towers dismissed a radio report that his team is the heavy favorite to land free agent Alfonso Soriano.
“Those are just rumors,” Towers says. “That’s not to say we don’t have an interest in him. It’s talk radio. This time of year we’re on a different guy every day. We’ll have a better sense of the
… I’m good with both of those positions.
Here’s one more interesting note …
Padres signed LHP Ryan Ketchner to a one-year contract.
Ketchner was an intriguing prospect a couple of years ago, but he missed 2005 following Tommy John surgery and was only able to throw 26 2/3 innings last season, though he did have a 1.69 ERA. While the Padres are giving him a major league contract, this isn’t a signing with 2007 in mind. Ketchner, who turns 25 in April, figures to spend the entire year in the minors. He doesn’t have any service time, so the Padres will retain his rights for six years if they’d like. He might be a decent fifth starter or middle reliever by 2008.
And I’d be OK with the Padres being the team that takes a chance on Jose Guillen … that seems to be the kind of gamble that pushes a team like the Padres over the top, if he regains an ability to OPS @ .850 (= .350 + .500).
I looked at Guillen, his success seems flukish. Plus the way he struggled in RFK (another big park) worries me.
Back to Giles, look at Baseball-References’s comps for him:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gilesbr02.shtml
1. Larry Doby (924) *
2. Bobby Abreu (920)
3. Wally Berger (916)
4. Ryan Klesko (909)
5. Tim Salmon (896)
6. Scott Rolen (894)
7. David Justice (892)
8. Raul Mondesi (891)
9. Hack Wilson (891) *
10. Hal Trosky (887)
I’d be interested in Kevin’s take on Guillen, as he must have observed him pretty closely in DC. From my old DC days, he seemed to be more head case than he was worth. Add the injuries last year and you have a disaster on your hands. Buuuut… he might be one of those head cases that if you’re the team that shows him some love he’ll bust his butt for you.
I think some of the discussion about Giles needs to include the fact that he has injured his knee both of the past 2 years and played through it.
If he’s healthy a bounce back year is certainly possible, its not like he’s 40+ like Bonds.
The idea of 2 guys with reasonable expectations to post .390+ OBP in Giles and JD Drew is certainly interesting especially with Adrian Gonzalez increasing his BB rate during the year last season.
M.A. (#94), well put
What’s the thinking on Klesko? Is he done or is he finally healthy? If healthy I’d think he could post numbers similar to Peter’s forecast for Giles. If we brought in Soriano at 2B I could see Klesko on a cheap contract in a LF platoon with Johnson. At least with Bochy gone there’s little chance he’d be our starting 1B.
My brother read a book about Tony LaRussa a month ago or so and in the book it said that Drew never really showed any desire for the game. That was also very apparent whenever I watched him play personally, and it just seems like he never exerted more than minimal effort. Couple that with leaving $33 million and a team that tied with us for the second best record in the National League, and I don’t know if he has the type of attitude you want in a player.
Also, he’s only a career .202/.345/.372 hitter at Petco Park and has struck out in almost 27% of his at-bats here. Of course if he played for us he wouldn’t be facing our pitching, but I still think it’s worth mentioning.
I say if Drew can hit .300/.400/.500 and provide good defense while only giving 50%, then hey, let him slack off. We’re only paying for how he has performed while not playing hard.
There are some valid question marks for Drew though. How will he hit at Petco Park? Will he age well? Can he stay reasonably healthy over the course of his contract?
I, too must be getting old and cranky, because I just don’t get it either…
Everyone says he doesn’t hustle, he doesn’t work hard, he doesn’t have a passion for the game, etc… However, the numbers he puts up are more than solid. Like Ben B. said, he that’s what we get out of Drew from a half-ass effort, then he’s one of the most talented hitters EVER.
I don’t think he’s going half-speed, I think his play just looks that way. When he would come to the plate against us down the stretch, he worried me more than anyone.
Maybe Drew and Burrell have both been stigmatized by fans expecting them to be something more than they are. When there’s high expectations and a guy doesn’t meet them and he’s naturally gifted enough to make it look easy, fans might say he’s lazy.
I also think in Drew’s case there’s still a perception based on his actions when the Phillies drafted him. That branded him as selfish and with every injury there’s speculation that he’s not really hurt.
Line me up on the OG side. Merv R said that he is going to work with Giles in the off-season to fix a flaw in his swing. He said it’s the same thing he did with Finley when he was here. I’m betting on a better year next year from Giles.
For those still not getting it, Kouz is phonetically identical to a nickname for, uhhhh, a southern portion of the female anatomy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Bad_Jokes_and_Other_Deleted_Nonsense/Body_Parts_Slang#Vagina_C
I think the reason many Ducksnorters may not familiar with the term is that it has always seemed to me to be a more popular term among women than men.
And, LM, D-Mat would be Matsuzaka, about whom Clay Davenport says the only major league pitcher that has been clearly better over the last 4 seasons is Johan Santana – thus the extraordinarily high reported posting fee bids.
I hope the Mervelous One is right. I’ll hope for the best from the OG, while secretly hoping he gets dealt.
Wasn’t Couse the nickname for Bob Cousy? I know the term dprat is referencing, but don’t think it’s the first thing that comes to mind.
What time tomorrow does the FA signing period begin? Should we expect any big surprises?
103: FWIW, I’ve never heard that term, despite being, er, in possession. I think of Bob Cousy, and perhaps the Planet Koozbain. Meanwhile, and though I realize there’s no gender crossing involved, guys named “Dick” seem to do all right…
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think a different nickname is called for at all. I’m just trying to clarify why some may not like it. “Kouz” sounds good to me.
I thought that one was pretty common. Hearing Tom Heinsohn refer to Bob Cousy as Cooz on Celtic broadcasts always made me snicker.
Uh…I don’t think I want this guy anywhere near our clubhouse.
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9794857/2
“Still, given Drew’s, uh, eccentricities — soft, fragile, viewed with disdain in many parts of the clubhouse after an odd post-wild card-clinching interview on the Dodgers’ radio network when he talked more about how happy he was with his own statistics than anything to do with the team clinching a playoff spot — the only better news for the Dodgers than shedding the rest of this deal would be if a vintage Sandy Koufax showed up in Vero Beach this spring. “
I remember a story coming out of LA just before DePodesta was, uh, temporarily semi-retired early. McCourt was quoted as saying that neither he nor DePodeste paid any attention to the clubhouse chemistry when putting together the team a few years ago, despite Tracy raising some concerns while it was happening. I remember McCourt admitting that Tracy was right about those concerns.
Shortly after, however, Tracy and DePodesta were both history. I also recall Moores saying that he didn’t ask a lot, but he did ask that the players who played here should get along together.
I think that any thought of a J.D. Drew signing should be looked at carefully.
Despite what Towers said in the paper, I don’t see the Padres signing Drew. He left 3/33 on the table with the Dodgers. I can’t see the Padres spending much more than that on a 31 year old with his injury concerns. Maybe somebody will (Boras is anything but an idiot), but I hope it’s not us. I especially don’t want to go more than 4 years, which is certainly what Boras will be angling towards.
Among remaining LF options I’d like:
1. Burrell (lots of salary paid-low cost to acquire).
2. Rocco Baldelli (Inexpensive-long-term contract; breakout season last year)
3. Alfonso Soriano (5th year of contract frightens me)
4. Drew (I don’t want to go more than 3 years on a guy with his injury issues)
5. Carlos Lee (Poor defense, long-term contract…seems like a bad risk)
4.
Paul, Paul, Paul… we talk daily…
ALOU!
Modifying Paul’s list – here’s mine
1. Alou (still hitting and at 40, he won’t be as expensive or require as many years)
2. Burrell (lots of salary paid-low cost to acquire).
3. Rocco Baldelli (Inexpensive-long-term contract; breakout season last year)
4. Alfonso Soriano (5th year of contract frightens me)
5. Drew (I don’t want to go more than 3 years on a guy with his injury issues)
6. Carlos Lee (Poor defense, long-term contract…seems like a bad risk)
Shifting the discussion to college football, I haven’t watched a USD game until right now… what’s the deal with this Josh Johnson guy? He seems too good to be playing for USD.
Are the D-Rays shopping Baldelli? Unless I’ve missed something, that would surprise me a bit, given that they’ve more or less just got him back from that freak injury. He’s a terrific kid, and I’d love to see him on either of my teams, but I’d be surprised if they moved him.
I don’t know what the story is w/ his recruitment, but the USD head coach, Harbaugh, said he’s easily an NFL QB…
They’re listening to offers for Crawford & Baldelli, though I don’t know anyone who thinks Baldelli will be the one leaving town. But it never hurt to ask.
The D’Rays have Crawford, Baldelli, and Delmon Young, plus B.J. Upton will likely be an OF. And Elijah Dukes is also an OF whose talent is immense and his trade-value is low… The two who would hurt the team the least in leaving and get the most return are Crawford & Baldelli…
re: Kouzmanoff
OK, OK. Why does everyone have to have a nickname that someone plays off their real name? Sheff, T-Mac, A-Rod, etc.
Real nickname are Oil Can, the Bird, etc.
I’m calling him Kevin Kouzmanoff.
115: The Sports Xchange has him projected currently as a 6th or 7th rounder in ‘08.
Richard (119), there are a lot of undrafted starting QBs in the NFL right now…
Crawford I see as trade bait; Baldelli I don’t. Though of course you’re right that it never hurts to ask!
120: I thought the 6th/7th rounder status was a positive when I typed it. Check this out:
“Big-time college recruiters missed out on Johnson because he was only a 5-foot-11, 145-pounder when he attended recruiting combines the summer before his senior year.”
He’s 6-3, 190 now.
When I hear Kouzy (koozy), I think of the foam soda can holder that keeps your drink colder longer. I never in a million years would have made the connection with the wikipedia label. Mayve I’m a little sheltered, but I am not ashamed of it.
I like Kouzy. I think its what the guys clubhouse will call him as well.
Too good to be playing for USD? I don’t think so.
–Class of ‘91, and proud of it.
re: 123
Kouzy is different than Kouz, which the the one that sounds like a body part.
123: Kouzy is different from Kouz.
Manny Acta is the new manager of the Nationals.
I was surprised he didn’t get an interview here.
Scouring (did I spell that right?) GoogleNews links for baseball news and I came across this:
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/15990850.htm
Marlins Seeking Bullpen Help
“Bullpen help and a center fielder top the Florida Marlins’ wish list heading into what could be another challenging offseason for general manager Larry Beinfest and his staff.”
I don’t know if they have anything we want, but I’d be willing trade some of our surplus for something good (don’t anyone get crazy and suggest Cabrera, they’re keeping him).
Another interesting tidbit:
Padres: They don’t appear involved in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes, but are reportedly hot for a couple of other Japanese veterans. The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres did submit a bid for Yakult third baseman Akinori Iwamura, and Japan Today reports that they are also interested in pitcher Ken Kadokura.
A 33-year-old right-hander who went 10-9 for the Yokohama BayStars, Kadokura is an unencumbered free agent, not bound to the posting process.
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061111&content_id=1739235&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp
Bagwell officially filed for free agency, I wonder if he’d play Gonzalez’ caddy?
Bagwell isn’t healthy enough to do that.
Yeah, apparently he filed as a formality and will join the Astros front office…
Re: 128
That is funny that you mention that… since I already mentioned it with post #16.
All this Giles bashing is just so absurd, not to mention baseless. Let’s see, a guy who goes all out, all the time, in the OF, who doesn’t come out of the lineup when sick or injured, who is the most agressive baserunner at breaking up the DP in MLB doesn’t have passion for the game? Doesn’t make any sense to me.
He’s “consistently shown over the past two season that he can’t do much with” strikes. First of all you can’t even have a trend with only two data points, but setting that aside, how does a season with a .301 average and a season with a .263 average show any consistency to not be able to handle strikes? Others have already shown how consistent his other numbers were (2B, HR, BB, K’s, even R’s and RBI were all remarkably similar), the only big drop was in BA, which is a rate stat that does tend to fluctuate from year to year.
There’s no reason to believe his BA won’t rebound 20 or 30 points next year, which will have a corresponding positive impact on both OBP and SLG. If you’re expecting to get 30 HR out of an aging left handed bat in Petco, you’re going to be disappointed. However, to imply Giles doesn’t have passion for the game or is not a productive player is unsupportable.
134: Thanks for that. I didn’t have the desire to further address the issue.
We could ask the Marlins about Jeremy Hermida, to see if they’re completely crazy and somehow soured on him after one poor season. Willingham, too, although he had a good season. I don’t really see the Marlins trading key pieces like those guys, though.
Questioning the character of baseball players in general by outsiders is completely ridiculous. Giles has done fantastic job working and playing hard and always giving his all.
There is some evidence that Giles’ batting average this year wasn’t a fluke. His BABIP took a huge hit this year. Last year he had a career high BABIP; this year it’s a career low. However, his line drive percentage took a big hit this year, and BABIP correlates roughly with line drive percentage + .12. His ISO power has also decreased steadily since 2002 (obviously part of this is park effects). His ground ball percentage has been steadily increasing over that time as well, which is probably related to the slugging. Conclusion: Giles is past his prime and has been declining, but should be good for a decent bounce back season next year with some adjustments. His walk rate has continued to be excellent even as his power has declined, and his K rate has decreased consistently with his power.
Richard, re 113: Here’s a link from the UT about Johnson. It’s a great story.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/usd/20061103-9999-lz1s3playmake.html
134 – I’m not questioning his character. I’m questioning whether at his age and with his fat contract he’ll want to sacrifice and work hard this offseason to get better. He’s been in a decline no one wants to talk about since 2002. It’s like we all want to pretend we got a great player, when we got a good one who’s now trending to mediocre. That’s nothing against him – he’s getting older and hitting in a park that does him no favors.
Richard’s post on his comparables is a good example – those are certainly fine folks to be compared to. What were those names after the ‘02 season? Probably much more impressive.
He’s never been the leadoff guy before, and just blindly assuming his BB trends will straight-line into next year in that slot is, in my opinion, where we’ll get in trouble.
Again though, that’s nothing about character at all.
I think everyone is pretty well agreed that Giles is in decline. The diference lies in the degree to which folks believe he’ll rebound. It’s possible that he’ll drop off the face of the planet, a la Ray Lankford. But it’s also possible that he’ll bounce back in the vein of, say, Moises Alou.
Actually, Alou is a fascinating guy to study when talking about Giles. Here are Alou’s OPS+ and RC/27 over a 7-year stretch:
Age | OPS+ | RC/27
——————
32 | 157 | 8.58
33 | 151 | 9.86
34 | 138 | 8.25
35 | 100 | 5.05
36 | 113 | 5.82
37 | 128 | 7.44
38 | 141 | 7.76
As compared to Giles:
Age | OPS+ | RC/27
——————
32 | 148 | 7.94
33 | 126 | 6.34
34 | 148 | 7.41
35 | 105 | 5.10
36 ?
37 ?
38 ?
This doesn’t prove anything, of course, in terms of which path Giles will follow, but it at least gives us a historical context. If Giles does bounce back, he won’t be the first.
I would LOVE for him to age like Alou…minus the whole peeing on the hands thing.
Slight correction to #139: Alou was injured and missed his entire age 32 season so the first line represents him at age 31.
138: If memory serves, few stats correlate yty like BB rate.
Drawing walks is about strike zone judgment and plate discipline. It’s not about all this nonsense of where a player hits in a lineup.
Nonsense? Right…..where a guy hits, who hits behind him, that has NO bearing? That’s silly.
144: While there is an effect, it is MUCH smaller than you seem to think it is.
re: 144
The effect isn’t so large that it makes a walk guy not a walk guy or a home run guy not a home run guy. It’s never worked that way. Bill James figured that out 20 years ago. The difference is small. The difference is so small that we don’t know whether it’s because of the player’s batting order.
Ok, fine….I’m watching the Chargers implode here, hence the short fuse.
#45, start of the 4th quarter. Feeling better?
Philip Rivers is god.
149: I think that goes without saying after today.
Wow, Ducksnorts is *THE* place to spend the winter, *THANKS* … and keep it up guys & gals!!!
Thanks, dprat … I nominate #103 for “comment of the year” … you can’t get much more “educational” than a link to Wikipedia’s page on “Bad Jokes and Other Deleted Nonsense/Body Parts Slang” … that’s a resource I’m going to need and use for the rest of my life
(it’s seems almost worth asking GY to include it in his list of links on the right side of this blog … whacha think, GY?)
Now, can someone explain “OG” to me?
151: OG = “Orange” [Brian] Giles
LOL – I saw that thought “original gangsta” (early 90’s hardcore-rap fan – sorry) and didn’t know how it fit. Either way, I didn’t get it… LOL
That term is to contrast him with his brother, should we acquire him, who can be known as “NOG” or non-orange Giles.
This just in: without a pass rush, Chargers D is in deep doo-doo. Thank goodness for Philip Rivers.
re: 154
In other words, thank God for God.
When I see NOG, I think of Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira.
154: Is there any defense that isn’t in trouble when the opposing QB has 6 seconds to pass?
seriously…Castillo can’t get healthy fast enough, and Merriman’s still got 2 games to go.
Couldn’t believe Hardwick came back in the game…that ankle looked shattered on that play.
best nickname: Bill “Spaceman” Lee
Also, is Dierdorf the biggest jackass ever?