Friday Links (10 Nov 06)
Fri, Nov 10, 2006
by Geoff Young
Geez, this is supposed to be the off-season. Busy, busy, busy…
- Two articles in today’s U-T on Bud Black, formally introduced Thursday night as the Padres’ new manager: The Buddy system and Compromise or consensus, it’s Bud’s job. Interesting look at Black, as well as the process that led to his hiring.
- Padres’ new manager is feeling ‘fabulous’ (North County Times). The usual stuff, plus a non-update on the Darren Balsley situation: “After speaking with Balsley on Wednesday, Black said he’s inclined to bring him back, although negotiations on a new contract remain in Towers’ hands.” Well, okay; let’s get it done, then.
- 2006 All-OOPs Team (Baseball Analysts). Rich Lederer identifies the most overrated offensive players in 2006. Ex-Padre Jay Payton makes the list, while Josh Barfield merits an honorable mention.
- Roster management and why it’s important (USS Mariner). Fascinating discussion on the nuances of building a big-league team. Very well thought out, plus it contains gems like, “This is why catchers with odd skillsets seem at times like fetish objects of the stathead community.”
- Net Stolen Bases: Leaders and Laggards (Baseball Analysts). Who were the most efficient base stealers in 2006? Well, Dave Roberts led the National League, and as a team, the Padres were second to the Mets. Defensively, the Pads were, um — hey, would you look at that offense!
- Gold Gloves by team? Interesting concept. Jeff at Lookout Landing identifies the Padres as the best defensive team in the big leagues. This makes for a nice companion piece to Chris Dial’s individual NL Gold Gloves from a couple weeks ago. We all know this already, but that really was a spectacular outfield last year.
- Crunch on This (Dodger Thoughts, via Baseball Musings). Jon Weisman talks about the J.D. Drew incident. Drew, in case you missed it, opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, thus becoming a free agent. Apparently the Dodgers didn’t see this coming. The salient points for Padres fans are:
- Drew is a Scott Boras client, and the Pads just shipped the last one of those (Barfield) out of town, so forget it.
- I like Ned Coletti better as the Dodgers GM than Paul DePodesta. Of course, in a perfect world, they’d bring back Tommy Lasorda.
- Chasing the Big Numbers 5 - Wins (Batters Box). How do some of today’s brightest young starting pitchers compare against the all-time greats at a similar stage in their careers? This piece is looking strictly at wins, but it’s an interesting read.
- Evaluating Managers, Part 3 (Baseball Think Factory). Man, I’m behind on my reading. I’ve only had a chance to skim this one, but it promises to be a fun read. Chris Jaffe attempts to determine the influence different managers have on their team’s success. Bruce Bochy does well according to Jaffe’s methodology, placing 12th among 34 managers examined. Surprisingly, Dusty Baker shows up at #6. Jaffe goes into pretty good detail on several of the managers. Fun stuff.
I could go on, but I’m out of time. Is it spring training yet?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 10, 2006 at 9:37 am
First things first, happy birthday to the USMC…now if we can only do something about the frequency of deployments overseas (7-months deployed, 7-months home, 7-months deployed, etc).
I was unaware that Barfield was a Boras client, so given that there are now no longer any Boras clients on the Padres I think it would be safe to say that we could narrow the number of FAs under consideration by scratching out the names of the Boras clients. Basically, we won’t see Zito or Drew here anytime soon, so who are the alternatives? I hope Balsley didn’t pick Boras as his agent.
Based upon what I heard SA say on XX the other night, Iwamura at second and the left-handed SP (Igawa?) seem to be possibilities from Japan. IMHO, we need a big right-handed stick (or 2) in the lineup…who are some of the non-Boras possibilities?
November 10, 2006 at 9:59 am
Sheffield is the chief RH basher available, also Burrell and Lee. Lee is a FA who, I believe, is repped by Boras, so he might be out. Burrell is available, but is owed quite a bit of money over the next 2 seasons. However, he’s probably a bit better than Lee (better fielder, draws a lot more walks), and the Padres could have him for a bag of balls and a couple signed bats, if they wanted him. The Phillies have soured on him, which is a bit of a red light, but considering they gave up on Abreau, traded him for nothing, and he was dominant in NY last season might give more insight into the Phils front-office than any perceived deficiencies in Burrel’s abilities. He’s only had one bad season, ‘03, when he hit 209 but still drew 72 walks and hit 21 Hrs. His line last year, in what was widely viewed as a disappointment, was:
144G 462AB 80R 24(2b) 29HR 95RBI 98BB 131K .258 /.388/ .502
The other two guys (Sheff and Lee) are going to be more expensive. I think Drew is a better option than all of these guys, but he is a Boras client and is very obviously a selfish player far more concerned with money than anything else. He’s a straight up mercenary, and an oft-injured one at that.
November 10, 2006 at 9:59 am
Doesn’t Koozy look alot like CR Jr?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....field.html
I was talking to Peter Friberg yesterday and I couldn’t remember who it was and when I look at his picture this morning it hit me. It Cal’s bodydouble.
November 10, 2006 at 10:07 am
2: Drew’s injury history and representation make him a less than desirable target. Burrell is interesting, though. I’d like to see the Padres look into acquiring him.
November 10, 2006 at 10:24 am
I’m with you, Richard. I’d love to see Burrell come to SD. He’s one of those guys with power that will play in any park.
November 10, 2006 at 10:26 am
Maybe Burrell IS the “named” guy that KT and SA have alluded towards?
November 10, 2006 at 10:35 am
Someone call Philly Billy at XX to see if KT has asked him to call Burrell and try to covince him to waive his no-trade clause to San Diego
November 10, 2006 at 10:37 am
#4 and 5
The more I look at it, I am also warming up to Burrell. Despite the Phillies’ lack of confidence in him, there’s not much in the record to fault. Having said that, his contract is more than a little unwieldy, and I can’t imagine Philly would take on any of his money to get rid of him. Still, he’s an absolute masher, only 29 years old, and a much better option than Sheffield or Lee, IMHO. And we could get him for, literally, nothing. McAnulty alone might be enough.
November 10, 2006 at 10:57 am
Pat Burrell’s RISP is pretty scary, but he’s actually a better offensive player than I thought. Very nice OBP considering his BA. He’d definitely come cheaper than Sheff, right? Philly’s dying to drop him.
November 10, 2006 at 11:24 am
friarfan: I have seen numerous places showing that Burrell’s low BA with RISP is a one year fluke. In 2005 he was one of the best hitters in baseball in those situations. By comparison, Soriano had a similarly low BA with RISP this year and in 2005. Burrell would be a great addition, and he has a two year contract paying him less annually than Lee, Soriano, and Drew will get for longer term deals.
November 10, 2006 at 11:35 am
I’m on the Burrell-bandwagon…
November 10, 2006 at 11:49 am
Just out of curiosity — and mainly because I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere — now that JD Drew may head to Boston, what’s the thought about Trot Nixon getting on somewhere? I almost wonder if he might be better to have around than Giles, because a) he’s cheaper and b) he can work a count.
Of course, Giles’ contract makes a move prohibitive, but Nixon seems like a pretty decent option for someone to grab on the cheap somewhere.
November 10, 2006 at 11:50 am
This from the Phillies official website http://philadelphia.phillies.m.....p;c_id=phi
“Regardless of whether they land Soriano, the Phillies will continue to shop left fielder Pat Burrell, and they remain willing to absorb a good portion of the $27 million he’s owed over the next two seasons.”
Sounds like he may even be “cheap” relatively speaking, and depending on what they are expecting in return.
One question though, it sounds like he has the bat they are looking for. Whats the problem, besides their lack of confidence in him?
November 10, 2006 at 11:57 am
I’m excited by the possibility of acquiring Burrell as well, for all of the reasons listed above. His park adjusted OPS is below .800 for the last two years, but I do think that getting out of Philly would lead to big seasons for him, even with Petco’s spacious dimensions. He’d fit great in the middle of our lineup for the next few years.
I’m also intrigued by Iwamura, but if we’re going to have to teach someone how to play 2nd, what about Nomar instead. This lineup looks pretty potent to me:
Giles LF
Garciaparra 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Burrell LF
Cameron CF
Bard C
Kouzmanoff 3B
Greene SS
It would have to be one of the better lineups in the NL. If we can add Igawa as well, I think we’ve had a pretty good offseason.
November 10, 2006 at 12:10 pm
It looks like Glavine may be filing for free agency today (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2655800), I’d like to see the Padres make a run at him if he does (he apparently has the same agent as David Wells).
November 10, 2006 at 12:14 pm
How about Josh Williingham for LF? I am sure the Marlins would listen to an offer seeing how badly they need pitching.
November 10, 2006 at 12:15 pm
Glavine is only listening to two teams: Atlanta & New York…
November 10, 2006 at 12:24 pm
Buster Olney is reporting the Red Sox may have bid between $38 and $45 million for Matsuzaka. Insane.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2656687
November 10, 2006 at 12:25 pm
#17
I read that too, but it wouldn’t hurt to at least inquire. Maybe he would show a little interest if we signed Maddux as well (for that old Atlanta feel). By the same token, he may be afraid to come to San Diego for fear that he would be mugged for the Cy Young he won in ‘98 that many Padre fans thought should have gone to Trevor Hoffman.
November 10, 2006 at 12:28 pm
#18
If that’s true, and they’re the top bidder, who are the leading candidates for Boston to move to clear out some salary?
November 10, 2006 at 12:30 pm
19:
The Cy Young Award should have gone to Kevin Brown.
November 10, 2006 at 12:31 pm
20: Manny?
November 10, 2006 at 12:41 pm
I bet Peter is pissed… The TIGERS just got Sheffield!
Me I am just happy to see him taint someone else’s clubhouse with his “team” attitude!
November 10, 2006 at 12:42 pm
The Tigers have acquired Gary Sheffield. The Yankees received three pitching prospects, inlcuding a top level one. The Tigers received permission to negotiate with Sheffield and reached an agreement on an extension.
It doesn’t sound like the Padres were players for Sheffield.
November 10, 2006 at 12:58 pm
Bummer. I was loving the idea of Sheff II. Anyhoo, moving on…Pat the Bat’s Park-adjusted OPS worries me, but I agree he’ll be primed for a fresh start getting out of Philly. Trade the OG for him. OG could maybe have a good power year at Citizens Bank Park. Net-net on the salary is pretty close…
#14: my problem with that lineup is the leadoff man. I do not believe OG will walk as many times in the #1 spot as he did in the #3 hole. Then you’re stuck with something like .260/.300/.350 from your leadoff guy, with no SB potential for upside.
#20/#22 - Manny would certainly make 2007 a very interesting year on and off the field for the usually personality-less Padres (with the exception of the times when Wells rolls onto the roster).
November 10, 2006 at 1:27 pm
Sheffied was one of the guys I wanted, but nec. the guy I wanted the most… I’m glad we didn’t give up more than 3 prospects.
November 10, 2006 at 1:35 pm
I heard at our watercooler that Garciaparra signed. I don’t know with whom. Anybody hear anything?
November 10, 2006 at 1:40 pm
Singned where San Diego?
November 10, 2006 at 1:41 pm
oh… I guess that’s what happens when I forget to read everything!
November 10, 2006 at 1:44 pm
Accoding to ESPN, Igawa has been given permission by his Japanese club to persue an MLB career.
November 10, 2006 at 1:48 pm
I can’t find anything anywhere on Nomah, and I ask the supposed source, and he said no, he hadn’t heard anything, so sorry about starting that rumor!
November 10, 2006 at 1:50 pm
Free Agents can’t sign until Sunday.
November 10, 2006 at 1:50 pm
What do you folks think about the ssssnakes new uni’s? It seems like everyone is going red or blue lately. I wonder if it has anything to do with the one world government theory :>)
November 10, 2006 at 1:52 pm
Thanks for the reminder Mitch
November 10, 2006 at 1:53 pm
Although they can sign with their old club, so he could have signed with the doggers, but apprently didn’t, yet.
November 10, 2006 at 2:01 pm
So I’ve read 3 different things toady reguarding Matsuzaka…
1. Being that the team that posted Matsuzaka was upset that the winning bid was so low and were discussing letting him go at all.
2. The Red Sox bid around 40 million to get him.
3. That the Rangers have won with a top bid over 30 million.
Also on http://www.mlbtraderumors.com there is a link up asking for a translation because it is some sort of asian language that is supposed to say that the Yankees have won.
So in other words, all the teams that were supposed to be serious about him have apparently won. That $20 - $30 million posting fee he was supposed to bring in was accurate. And that last rumor I heard the other day about the actual posting fee landing around $11 million sounds like it probably true too.
I wish I could get paid for writing and circulating false rumors too!
November 10, 2006 at 2:11 pm
KRS1: I’ve been reading all those same rumors thinking, “Who’s got the lousiest sources our of this crowd?”
November 10, 2006 at 2:11 pm
Clayton, I’m curious what makes you think teams are less likely to walk Giles if he bats leadoff. Are the Padres’ 2 & 3 hitters likely to be more frightening relative to Giles than our 4 & 5 hitters were this past year? I really don’t think teams were intentionally walking Giles to get to Piazza and Gonzalez. The guy simply has great plate discipline.
November 10, 2006 at 2:37 pm
This about Koozy’s from his former AAA manager on scout.com
http://padres.scout.com/2/588919.html
“For me, the thing that makes Kevin special is what nobody sees,” Lovullo said. “People see him hitting nearly .400 on offense, and they see him hitting home runs and driving the ball and making good plays on defense.
But what I get to see is what is inside these clubhouse walls. It’s a guy who is passionate about baseball. It’s an intense competitor who has a strike-first attitude. He wants to attack you before you even think about jumping on him. He has a championship mentality. “
Sounds like a good guy to have on your team.
November 10, 2006 at 3:17 pm
Clayton-
I have to agree with #39. If Garciaparra is batting behind Giles he’ll get pitched around quite a bit more than when Josh Bard was hitting clean-up behind him for chunks of last year. Walks certainly can be related to protection in the lineup, but I don’t think that there is anyway that Giles will post a .300 OBP in his career. He’s not going to lose almost 100 points on his OBP because Nomah is backing him up.
November 10, 2006 at 3:21 pm
Also, like Peter, I’m glad that the Padres did not pay for Sheffield if that was the price. I wonder how much salary the Yankees are picking up. Sanchez is a pretty high price to pay, to say nothing of the other two prospects that the Yankees got in the deal. Cashman seems to have made a pretty good deal here. He bought himself another top 15 RHP prospect and rid himself of a sulking slugger in the same deal.
November 10, 2006 at 3:22 pm
3 in a row!
I’d love to see the Padres talk to Tampa about one of their surplus OFers. I’d be thrilled to see Baldelli in a Padres uniform. They might be interested in Linebrink as a closer, no?
November 10, 2006 at 3:23 pm
With all the Burrell discussion, here’s a link to a recent Crasnick article at ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2653713
November 10, 2006 at 4:17 pm
Didn’t KT already guarantee Ben Johnson a starting spot in the Pads 2007 outfield?
November 10, 2006 at 4:49 pm
44 - I would seriously doubt it.
Johnson is pretty good, but he’s only a starter if we were getting .300/.400/.600 seasons out of Giles. With Giles’ current production levels, we need more out of LF to counteract Giles’ decline (even w/ his decline, he’s still a valuable player).
Paul R & I were just discussing potential trade solutions between San Diego and Philly. We agreed that a Linebrink-Headley for Burrell-Floyd made sense for both teams. If either team felt slighted, the other team could throw in a low-level arm.
November 10, 2006 at 5:35 pm
What about Catalanotto, Craig Wilson for cheap LF?
November 10, 2006 at 6:06 pm
46: Wilson’s more of a first baseman, isn’t he?
November 10, 2006 at 6:46 pm
In one sense I wouldn’t mind Wilson, but he’s essentially an older, less-athletic Ben Johnson.
I want one of:
Burrell
Alou
Soriano
even Luis Gonzalez
or let Terrmel Sledge start before Wilson…
November 10, 2006 at 7:53 pm
Someone’s likely already posted this (and if so, I apologize) … here’s one man’s (Yahoo’s Jeff Passan) look at 101 free agents … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns … decent preview.
November 10, 2006 at 8:00 pm
48: I’m okay with three of those four names. Bet you can’t guess which one I’ against. ha
November 10, 2006 at 8:46 pm
Today Philly (”Shrill”) Billy was saying how the Padres had to show us fans they were serious and go out and sign Soriano…
Now, keep in mind, unlike Richard, I’m not anti-Soriano (I am anti-Soriano if it takes a 6-year deal), but I wanted to call in on the show and ask Billy if he could choose a San Diego World Series or an Alphonso Soriano-signing, which would he choose?
Now I don’t think a Soriano-signing would preclude a trip to the WS for the Padres, but he could cost enough to prevent us from doing other stuff which might prevent us from going to the WS…
November 10, 2006 at 9:13 pm
51: Are you in favor of a $75M, 5 year deal?
November 10, 2006 at 9:20 pm
Also, in response to the Philly Billy assertion, I’d say the Padres showed they were serious when they let Bochy walk, then traded a fan favorite.
November 10, 2006 at 9:33 pm
re: 53 … right on! SA is one serious dude … I like him!
November 10, 2006 at 9:34 pm
53 - EXACTLY!
And let another fan-fave (Roberts) walk in a FA year…
I’d probably do 5/$75 - I think - but only after I had tried to sign Alou…
November 10, 2006 at 9:42 pm
I’d rather do 5/$75 for Zito than Soriano…
November 10, 2006 at 9:47 pm
56: Me, too. And I’m not that high on Zito.
November 10, 2006 at 9:48 pm
55: I’m really not sure Soriano is even a $10M/year guy.
November 10, 2006 at 9:49 pm
Unrelated, can we all agree that Kouzmanoff cannot be nicknamed “Kouz?”
November 10, 2006 at 9:57 pm
Oh come on, where’s the sense of literary fun? If we name him Kouz, then his HRs can be Kouz-missles…
November 10, 2006 at 10:00 pm
60: See, but even that still sounds dirty.
November 10, 2006 at 10:04 pm
I must be getting old an becoming un-hip, I don’t get it…
November 10, 2006 at 10:50 pm
Keith Law has a new analysis on ESPN.com, of Sheff and Barfield trades. He writes that “San Diego got one of the stathead darlings of the moment in Kevin Kouzmanoff, and they’re talking about giving him an everyday role in left field. … ”
Has anyone else reported this?
… “I think he’s a singles/doubles hitter, with fringe-average power at best, that might play at third base, where his range is limited and his hands a little hard, but it won’t play in left.”
November 10, 2006 at 10:56 pm
One other Keith Law tidbit. He did a Top 40 FAs. Zito was No. 15. Pitchers ahead of him: D-Mat (2), Jason Schmidt (4), Roger Clemens (5), Andy Pettite (6), Mike Mussina (11) Ted Lilly (12) and Gil Meche (13).
There isn’t an obvious “bang-for-your-buck” component to the article, but it must be implied. Ted Lilly over Zito?
November 10, 2006 at 10:57 pm
Thought I’d post just to see if I remembered how. But seriously enjoying reading the, as usual, great analysis and fine writing from GY and the intelligent discussion of the ’snortin’ gang.
My only comments on the off-season thus far: very pleased to have Black on board, definitely like the Kouz pick up, altho’ mostly cause of the nickname, and think the Burrell idea is the best I’ve heard lately (tho’ I find Alou intriguing as well).
Only thing new to add to the discussion is actually just a reminder. As I pointed out in the aftermath of the Linebrink-Betemit non-deal, Linebrink’s trend is downhill:
Year - ARP - Fair RA:
2004 - 32.6 - 1.53
2005 - 22.3 - 2.21
2006 - 12.6 - 3.44
His perceived value is still quite high. So… SELL…SELL… SELL! while you can still get something tasty.
November 11, 2006 at 12:04 am
Law & I used to exchange e-mails quite a bit. But I think he’s just wrong, wrong, wrong on this one.
I’ll take consistent above-average over possibly great but oft-injured (Pettite) every day of the week.
Schmidt is better than Zito?
I’d love to sign Meche. He has a chance to regain the form a lot us saw, but his best ERA is 3.78. His 2nd best ERA is 4.48… Better than Zito?
I can see why Riccardi let Law go…
November 11, 2006 at 12:48 am
66: A number of people whose opinions I respect considered that more an indictment of Ricciardi. Personally, I don’t know what to make of that situation.
November 11, 2006 at 7:58 am
Apologies for the spam, I asked Geoff and he said it was ok to post this here.
If anyone is into OOTP2006, I’m part of a new league that still has a few openings. We’re starting in 1975 and some of the available teams are slotted very high in the draft. This is your chance to manage Nolan Ryan, Reggie Jackson and even Randy Jones. Open teams: Detroit, KC, Minnesota, Texas, Philly, the Cubs, Houston, San Francisco and Atlanta. Remember, there’s an inaugural draft so whatever team you pick you still have a shot at Jerry Turner and Enzo Hernandez!
Unlike most OOTP leagues we have a fee of $20 per calendar year, which will be donated to charity. Details are still being worked on but most likely the league will vote on who gets the donation.
You can get more details here:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.co.....p?t=132497
If you’re not familiar with OOTP, it’s an incredibly deep baseball sim that’s great for solo play or online leagues. Personally I think it’s a lot more fun than fantasy baseball and it’s something to pass the time during the off season.
November 11, 2006 at 9:37 am
Richard, Paul-
As the leadoff guy, Giles will see more strikes next year. He’s consistently shown over the last 2 years that he can’t do much with them. Doesn’t matter who’s hitting #2 or #3, no pitcher wants to get the leadoff guy on, and knowing how his bat has declined will induce more pitchers to dare him to hit it. So yes, to me it seems very probable his walks will decline significantly w/o a corresponding gain in average or power.
November 11, 2006 at 9:42 am
In the paper today Towers announces that the Padres did bid on Iwamura and that his possible acquisition does not change plans for Kouz. Iwamura would be a 2B or super-utility guy. Sounds like a pretty good use of a versatile player. I hope that we get him and that he can play second.
November 11, 2006 at 9:44 am
Okay, I’m confused.
Recently reported facts/opinions are:
We get Kouzi (I prefer that, since it rhymes with Uzi), who KT says will play 3rd base. Law, however, in his ESPN blog, says Kouzi is projected by the Pads as a left fielder.
The UT reports that we bid on Iwamura. While Iwamura plays 2nd, and has said he’d play anywhere, he’s the Japanese equivalent of a gold glover at 3rd. So, is Law right and KT is merely putting up a smoke screen on Kouzi?
KT, also in the UT says that Piazza and DR remain possibilities “if we can find a “power bat.” Absent some other openings being created via trades, 2nd base and LF seems our only location to add said “power bat.” (Unless you believe Law, then 3b also fits.) If you throw out Law’s statement, then 2B has to be the target for a “power bat,” since DR wouldn’t remain if the “power bat” comes from LF.
I haven’t figured out a scenario that makes all these pieces fit. Anyone else have any ideas or should I put this in the off-season mis-direction doublespeak?
November 11, 2006 at 9:48 am
Here’s the U-T article referenced in #70.
I haven’t heard anyone but Law talk about Kouzmanoff in LF. Seems to me that Iwamura would play 2B. I also find it interesting that, according to the same U-T article, the Pads will explore the possibility of signing J.D. Drew.
November 11, 2006 at 9:53 am
Since DePodesta signed Drew to the Dodgers, I figured that he was the type of player that fit our “profile” assuming we have one. However, I’m not a big fan of J.D., since I don’t like his injury history and, although I may be wrong, he looks like he dogs it.
November 11, 2006 at 10:08 am
Drew opted out of $11MM per, right? Is he really worth more than that to the Padres? Maybe…I have to admit I don’t care much for him, but that’s sort of superficial based on him a) being a Dodger; b) seeming to have an attitude; c) always being injured and d) having Boras for an agent.
November 11, 2006 at 10:19 am
I was at a Dodgers game last year where Drew absolutely dogged it on a softly hit ball hit to right field. He had a very good shot at catching it but pulled up very early and played it on the bounce. It didn’t look like he would have had to dive for it either, just run really hard and scoop it. It wasn’t hit hard enough to go far if it got past him. Even the Philly fan I was sitting next to was amazed that he didn’t hustle. Granted it’s just one play and maybe he had injury concerns but it looked really bad.
The Kouz to LF scenario doesn’t make a lot of sense since 3B has been a black hole. I would think he’ll get every chance to prove himself at the hot corner.
The only scenario I can see where Roberts comes back is we sign Soriano and let him play 2B. If that happens and Iwamura comes in as a replacement for Blumhorn we’ll have a pretty powerful and flexible lineup.
November 11, 2006 at 10:30 am
Another potential topic for conversation comes from a comment that SA threw out on the XX interview last Wed. He said that he believed that Bud Black’s inexperience in the NL could be offset by hiring a strong bench coach. I take it from that comment that Tony M. is not considered to be a strong bench coach by SA. Any ideas on a replacement?
November 11, 2006 at 10:31 am
Law is an idiot. Kouz is here for 3B. If he plays his way off it, LF could be a possibility.
Clayton (#68), you said, “[Giles has] consistently shown over the last 2 years that he can’t do much with them.”
Huh?
In 2005 Giles had 38 doubles and 15 home runs.
In 2006 Giles had 37 doubles and 14 home runs.
Furthermore in each year he had 100+ BB and 60ish SO (115/64 in ‘05 & 104/60 in ‘06)… He even had nearly the same amount of hits each season (164 in ‘05 and 159 in ‘06). The difference was, in 2006 he had 604 AB and in 2005 he had 545 AB. So his rate-stats decreased…
I expect Giles to have a bit of a bounce-back season in ‘07.
Career: .295/.408/.525
2005: .301/.423/.483
2006: .263/.374/.397
I expect something like .280/.390/.450 next year out of Giles.
November 11, 2006 at 10:32 am
Thank you to all veterans and members of the military for your service to our country.
Thanks goodness Detriot picked up Sheff.
November 11, 2006 at 10:46 am
Regarding J.D. Drew, the worst a player can do is strike out. Putting the ball in play at least gives baserunners the opportunity to advance.
The ideal player is a guy who walks quite a bit, doesn’t strike out at all, and has power and the athleticism & ability to excell defensively.
for instance check out this ideal player:
Career: .325/.398/.579 760 BB & 369 SO… And he played at least a very good CF…
That player was Joe Dimaggio
Now I’m not comparing J.D. to Joltin’ Joe, but Drew walks roughly as much as much as he strikes out and he doesn’t strike out as much as a lot of guys w/ his power…
November 11, 2006 at 10:53 am
Peter - on what could you base Giles having a bounceback year? He’s a year older, still in Petco, and if you believe the rumours about his past success, still off the juice. Plus, he’s got a fat contract and has not shown any real passion for the game…the kind of passion that would get you motivated to prove others wrong. That doesn’t mean he dogs it, but I don’t ever see him with any kind of chip on his shoulder.
I would love to see it (a bounceback season), don’t get me wrong, but I can’t see how you can expect it. The HR/doubles #s you show prove the point…sure he’s hitting mid-30’s 2Bs, but he’s done that every year. It’s not that he’s replaced HRs w/ 2Bs due to Petco, he just gets out more.
1999: 33 2Bs / 39 HRs
2000: 37/35
2001: 37/37
2002: 37/38
then the decline:
2003: 34/20 –> this is where KT bought, which is what I hate
2004: 33/23
2005: 38/15
2006: 37/14
At his age, players don’t rebound like you’re predicting w/o either chemical help (Bonds) or a burning fire in their belly to prove critics wrong. The former better not be an option, and he doesn’t ever show anything like the latter.
November 11, 2006 at 11:04 am
Clayton, on what are you basing your assertion that Giles doesn’t play with passion? I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone come in harder trying to break up a double play. I consider his level of effort to be a strength, not a weakness.
As for bouncing back, players tend to regress to the mean. Last year looks like an aberration — particularly in the power department. Peter’s projection seems pretty reasonable to me.
November 11, 2006 at 11:08 am
Geoff, I’m not doubting hustle, I doubting the overall commitment to work harder this offseason to get better, the passion to overcome his decline. I just don’t see it, and I watch almost every Padre game. Would love to be wrong. Breaking up double plays in the heat of the game is different from working hard in December/January/February rather than hitting the beach and taking it easy. Especially at his age.
He’s not regressing back to the previous mean. His new level is what it is, and he’ll have to fight to get above it - which is where I think he’d rather tan and surf than work harder than before. Just my prediction. I hated trading Bay and Perez for him, hated giving him a huge contract last year, and continue to feel like he isn’t worth the money.
November 11, 2006 at 11:35 am
Guys of his caliber don’t fall off the table, they gradually get worse…
David Juctice is a good comp:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/.....or=justice
Look at his career numbers: .279/.378/.500
He had some randomly bad years mixed in w/ some good ones but he followed a basic downward trend. That’s why I predict what I do for giles. Notice I don’t predict above career average levels, I predict him continuing to bring down his career numbers. Just better than last year.
November 11, 2006 at 11:41 am
Interesting. I don’t know what Giles’ work habits are like in the off-season, but it seems curious to me that a guy would slack off over the