There’s been some discussion recently on the value of Brian Giles. Specifically, did his 2006 season (.263/.374/.397) represent an aberration or the beginning of the end?

Giles turns 36 in January, so it’s tempting to believe that the latter is the case. However, there is precedent for a player performing at a very high level up until his mid-30s, declining, and then re-establishing himself in his late-30s. And we actually don’t have to look that far back to find such a player.

But before we go there, let’s check out some other players who are comparable to Giles according to Baseball-Reference.com:

Players Similar to Brian Giles through Age 35

Name	Years	AB	OPS+
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Bob Johnson	1933-1941	4878	137
Larry Doby	1947-1959	5348	136
Fred Lynn	1974-1987	5985	133
Tim Salmon	1992-2004	5723	129
Ryan Klesko	1992-2006	5249	131
Dante Bichette	1988-1999	5415	106
Ellis Burks	1987-2000	6044	125
David Justice	1989-2001	5227	130
Paul O’Neill	1985-1998	5645	126
Ray Lankford	1990-2002	5547	123

For what it’s worth, Giles’ OPS+ (142) was higher than that of any of his comparables. Most of this is due to his freakish ability to get on base. Acknowledging that, here is how each of these players did from age 36 to the end of their careers.

Players Similar to Brian Giles through Age 35: The Aftermath

Name	Years	AB	OPS+
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Bob Johnson	1942-1945	2042	141
Larry Doby	N/A	N/A	N/A
Fred Lynn	1988-2000	940	104
Tim Salmon	2005-2006	211	113
Ryan Klesko	N/A	N/A	N/A
Dante Bichette	2000-2001	966	103
Ellis Burks	2001-2004	1188	129
David Justice	2002	398	106
Paul O’Neill	1999-2001	1673	103
Ray Lankford	2003-2004	200	102

Johnson improved, but that was during World War II, when many of MLB’s best and brightest were serving their country and the talent pool was diluted. Doby, whose career started just after Johnson’s ended, played his final big-league game at age 35.

Lynn and Lankford are the names that Padres fans fear. Each of those fine players saw their skills erode almost completely while in San Diego.

Salmon, Klesko, and Justice all suffered injuries that caused each to miss significant time. Salmon didn’t play in his age 36 season, bounced back in a limited role the following year, and then retired. Klesko collected only a handful of at-bats in his age 35 season and it remains to be seen where he goes from here. Justice retired following his age 36 season due to injuries.

Bichette? He shows up on this list, but his complete inability to draw a walk makes him a terrible comp. Burks looks like a potentially good point of reference, but he never really faced the kind of dropoff that Giles has faced. The main similarity here is that both Burks and Giles are among the most underrated hitters of their time.

O’Neill probably is the most analogous hitter of this bunch, but except for 1994 (his and Giles’ age 31 season are eerily similar), he really is a poor man’s Giles. When O’Neill’s production dropped late in his career, it wasn’t from such great heights. The slope of his decline, in other words, was very gentle. As with Burks, there was no precipitous dropoff from which to rebound.

Having found no suitable comps from Giles’ age 35 list, I investigated further. One name that didn’t appear in the original list kept showing up in comps for previous ages: Moises Alou.

Alou was #1 on Giles’ list through age 28. He was #2 through age 29, #5 through age 30, #2 through age 31, #10 through age 32, #9 through age 33, and #10 through age 34. Suffice to say, their respective careers are more than a little analogous:

Moises Alou and Brian Giles, Age 31 – 35

Age	Name	OPS+	RC/27	ISO	XB/H	BB/SO
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
31	Alou	157	8.58	.270	.423	.966
	Giles	173	10.07	.324	.541	1.824
32	Alou	injured
	Giles	148	7.94	.215	.408	1.810
33	Alou	151	9.86	.268	.373	1.156
	Giles	126	6.34	.191	.364	1.113
34	Alou	138	8.25	.223	.347	1.000
	Giles	148	7.41	.182	.372	1.859
35	Alou	100	5.05	.144	.293	.770
	Giles	105	5.10	.131	.327	1.733

Despite missing his age 32 season, Alou followed a fairly unremarkable path: slight decline through age 34, then precipitous drop at age 35. Giles’ progression is a little less linear: steady drop, then slight rebound, then big drop.

Two things I find interesting here are the changes in strike zone judgment and in isolated power. Both players mostly maintained a constant BB/SO ratio throughout their mid-30s, with one notable exception in each case.

Giles experienced a severe drop at age 33 that accompanied a minor drop in overall production. In truth, though, it was no worse a drop than had occurred the previous season, without any real change to his BB/SO.

When Giles slumped at age 35, his plate discipline was only slightly worse than it had been at age 34 (and still very good by most standards). In other words, he still appeared to be recognizing pitches as well as ever; he just wasn’t able to do as much with the ones he actually atttempted to hit.

Alou’s game, on the other hand, pretty much deteriorated all at once. Like Giles, his power went into serious hibernation (although the slope wasn’t quite as steep); unlike Giles, however, Alou also gave ground in the plate discipline area.

Intuitively, we might expect such a broad decline of one’s offensive game at that age to be irreversible. But with Alou, at least, this hasn’t been the case:

Moises Alou, Age 36 – 39

Age	OPS+	RC/27	ISO	XB/H	BB/SO
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
36	113	5.82	.182	.367	.940
37	128	7.44	.284	.443	.850
38	141	7.76	.197	.314	1.302
39	132	7.24	.270	.462	.903

Alou showed a slight rebound at age 36 in all aspects of his game, and has leveled off at a high (albeit not as high as during his prime) level from age 37 to 39. None of this, of course, is any guarantee that Giles will follow a similar path. It should, however, provide at least some hope to folks who are convinced he is the second coming of Lankford.