While we’re waiting for the Padres to name a manager, there’s plenty else to keep us occupied. First, GM Kevin Towers’ option has been picked up through 2008. Love him or hate him, he’ll be with the Padres for a couple more years.
Remember all the talk about Sandy Alderson’s presence as CEO being a sign that Towers was on his way out? Of course you do, because it’s been going on since the day Alderson arrived in San Diego. From Alderson himself:
I’ve been saying for a year and half that people should not jump to conclusions or try to anticipate what might happen. This is part of a structure that we’re trying to create, and there’s no reason that Kevin and most other member of the organization can’t be part of what we have going forward.
Yeah, but reality isn’t nearly as much fun as a conspiracy theory.
The other “news” (which isn’t really, because we’ve known about this, or at least anticipated it, for a very long time) is that the Padres are making no effort to re-sign left fielder Dave Roberts. Instead, the club is focusing its efforts on getting some much-needed help for the middle of the lineup.
Look, Roberts has been the catalyst of two division winners, and he’s been orders of magnitude more valuable than I imagined possible when the Pads acquired him from Boston in December 2004, but the guy turns 35 in May and is coming off two career years. Check this out:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | XB/H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with Padres | 910 | .285 | .358 | .409 | .270 |
| elsewhere | 1294 | .259 | .335 | .344 | .206 |
Roberts had more extra base hits (70) in two seasons with the Padres than he’d had in his entire career (69) leading up to his tenure in San Diego. I’m grateful for what he’s done here, and I hope he’s able to swing a sweet deal based on his performance in 2005 and 2006. But in all honesty, Roberts strikes me as one of the more likely candidates to be overpaid commensurate to his actual value this off-season.
Even at his very best, Roberts is a 35-year-old left fielder (not a center fielder, as we all learned in 2005) with a 767 OPS. Is there room for a player like that on the Padres? At the right price, I think there is.
At the right price, the Pads have a guy named Terrmel Sledge on the roster. Am I suggesting that Sledge is a long-term (or even short-term) solution in left field? No. What I’m acknowledging, and what I believe the Padres recognize as well, is that left field is a position that needs to carry a little more offense than Roberts, even at his best, could provide. In other words, Roberts shouldn’t be starting for the Padres in 2007.
Assuming the Padres are able to bring in someone with pop (Carlos Lee?), Roberts, if he remained, likely would be relegated to fourth outfielder status. How much would you be willing to pay a fourth outfielder? Given what other teams are likely to offer Roberts, would that be enough? And would Roberts be happy, after having been the full-time leadoff hitter for two seasons, in a reduced role?
Sledge, on the other hand, is 5 years younger than Roberts. His career OPS is 775, higher than Roberts’ OPS with the Padres the past two years. Again, we’re not necessarily talking about an everyday player, but if the role you’re looking to fill isn’t that of a starter, then is Sledge really a worse option than Roberts? Even without the difference in salary, I’d say the answer is no. Once you factor in the money, it’s pretty clear that the advantage belongs to Sledge.
Of course, whatever happens, someone will need to manage these guys…
this whole Barfield deal could mean
A. the Padres like their 2B/sS prospect Cruz(?)
B. Antonelli could be the next 2Bman
C. Walker could be re-signed?
D. the arm they get might be part of next year’s bullpen
I think the pads really want Soriano, not Giles. Giles is just a smokescreen to get people around the league think the pads aren’t interested in Soriano. Although the pads don’t have the resources the yankees or mets have they have something to offer the Soriano would love. A chance to play 2B and no other team that is chasing him can give him that opportunity.
Or hey, there’s always ray durham. a little injury prone but 898 OPS playing at ATT/PacBell. Not a bad line, and since he’s already 35 or so he won’t be expecting a long contract…
I’m with Kevin on Soriano…not expecting him to continue that level of performance, he’ll definitely be commanding huge dollars that could be better deployed (by a team like the Padres) elsewhere. Don’t like what I’m hearing him say about laziness, etc. Haven’t seen him playing in person, so have to trust someone who has.
Sheffield! Sheffield! Sheffield!
Love the Bud Black hire, not so hot on trading away Barfield despite liking KK’s hitting #’s in the minors…
# 48
I can arrange that!
I would rather have Brian Giles give me a Padre Hug with tanning lotion then have Sheff in a Padre uni. Speaking of which, I was all for dumping BG as out next declining vet $$$ sponge, but now I want to give him one more chance. REACTION!!!
A. Josh Barfield was similar to the 2005 version of the Padres in that his success was based on just one great month and five subpar ones. He was virtually benched for the playoffs and has a poor OBP, definately marks against him in regards to Alderson.
B. I like the 2B options out there this off-season. All seem like aging bargains, something that KT is in love with.
C. Marcus Giles stinks, let’s face it. Do we really need to El Cajon natives in one starting lineup?
I can’t wait for more dealings!
Listening to 1090 in the car just made me want to get home sooner and read the Ducksnorts takes. How can people call up and say they know nothing about Kouzmanoff but they hate the deal? He could be the second coming of Pujols for all they know. This wasn’t a case of trading a good young player because he makes too much money or we wanted a broken down veteran.
As someone said earlier, SA is on record as saying that 2B is an easy position to fill. I love Barfield as much as anyone but if we can replace him with Marcus Giles we don’t lose much and we’ve filled our 3B hole with one of the best options out there. Plus KT got another one of his throw-in arms and those have worked out well lately.
As for LF, I’d prefer Sheffield or Alou over Soriano or Lee. I read somewhere that the Yankees are probably going to have to pay half his salary to get any kind of value in return. Sheff at $6.5 million could be a nice bargain but I’d take him at full price if it means we don’t have to deal anyone. If he breaks down we still have Johnson and Sledge, both of whom I feel will play a much larger role next year. I think Black is going to be a little better about forcing Giles to take some days off.
Does this mean Linebrink for Marcus Giles? The brothers Giles in the 1 and 2 holes in the lineup?
We need to come up with a nickname for Kouzmanoff. That name is too long to type and KK looks a little too close to KKK. And Kouz just sounds kind of gross.
My wife threatened to smuggle a steak into Sea World once to shut me up …
How do you spell 2?
I really hate the Barfield trade. Like I REALLY hate it. We had control of Josh, who gave every indication if being at the least, a solid major league second baseman, for the next five seasons. Three of the the better prospects in the system, Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli, and David Freese, are all third baseman, so I really doubt Kouzmanoff is so good that he’s worth trading a cheap, effective, major league second baseman. There’s not even any guarantee that Kouzmanoff will start next season. This is just opening up even more holes than we had before.
Also, that list of available second baseman is very underwhelming. Just because there are lot out there doesn’t mean we need to go get one.
This makes the Mark Loretta-Doug Mirabelli trade that much worse. When we dealt MLo, we at least had Barfield behind him. But now we have nobody behind him. I don’t see any upside to this trade.
Surfin’ Bird, does your last name start with H?
Does anyone know of the analogous “Ducksnorts” site for the Indians? There might be a few of their fans that follow their AAA team closely that are posting about the trade that will give us an idea of what they think of KK and Brown.
#64
This link will take you to the home page of the Gaslampball.com equivalent for the Cleveland Indians. There are some links there to other Indian sites as well. FWIS, they seem to like the trade.
That should be FWIW, not FWIS…
Of course they are also looking at some of Barfield’s minor league stats and saying they are from San Diego….big difference.
Found this one to answer my own questions, I didn’t see one post that didn’t like the deal; mostly because of (1) they had a log jam at 3rd, (2) Kouz has had injury issues and (3) they are out of options with Brown so he had to be on the roster (I think that is what a couple of guys said ???).
http://www.letsgotribe.com/story/2006/11/8/14626/5473#commenttop
Ray Durham had a career year and is going to get overpaid by someone. Loretta is not the player he was. He had the year he had this year (4th best of his career) hitting ahead of the best hitters in baseball, Papi and Manny.
Also, Kouzmanoff’s #s in the Arizona Fall League:
.409/.480/.682.
Additionally, further examination of his minor league numbers indicate that he is more than just a power hitter. He projects to walk 50-60 times, K just over 100, and ground into less then 10 DP.
I like this trade every way you look at it. Barfield was nothing special, hate to break it to you. He is simply not a disciplined hitter. I think KT was going to get one of these guys (Marte or Kouzmanoff). Barfield was the better price to pay for Kouzmanoff than what the price for Marte would have been (Khalil Greene? Peavy?). Though, I am not sure Greene’s an upgrade over Peralta.
62: Antonelli projects at second base.
I really hope they’re not after Soriano. The guy is a dog. Terrible defender, doesn’t hustle. I’m not too crazy about Lee either. Even though Sheff is a huge jerk, he can still rake, he plays a decent OF and he plays hard
If they’re going to spend some dough, I’d rather they post for Iwamura (sp?), try to get Sheffield and maybe try to sign Mulder.
I think this was a pretty good deal, even though it’s tough seeing Barfield go. Maybe Balsley (if he’s here) and/or Black can get that Brown kid straightened out — the prospect of a Padre pitcher not named Linebrink or Peavy throwing in the mid 90s is pretty nice.
As for KK — what do they have to lose, really? If the kid can hit, stick him in there, as long as he’s decent at 3B, he’ll be a huge upgrade.
Just think — we’ll never have to see Bellhorn or Walker at third EVER AGAIN!!! Isn’t that great??
72
Josh Barfield is what we lost.
73: That’s not that big of a loss.
Barfield (tough, hard nosed kid who can hit) can be replaced by:
– Giles (tough, hard nosed guy that can hit)
– Loretta (tough, hard nosed guy that can hit)
– Iwamura (I don’t know much about him other than he’s supposedly fast and strikes out a lot)
– Soriano (this option makes me puke, but he’s there, I guess)
All more expensive (and older) options, but it’s much harder to get a decent 3b these days than a decent 2b.
So the next rumored move is Linebrink for Giles. What do you guys think? Seems like a lot to give up for Giles considering he had an off year but it might be time to get what we can for Linebrink.
And what’s with all these rumors of the Mets trying to trade Milledge and Heilman for Peavy? It sounds like a bunch of wishful thinking from Mets fans and media. From what little I’ve seen of Milledge I want no part of him and this is probably the worst time to trade Peavy, when his perceived value is low.
I’d love to see Loretta again, but I think he’s going to the Mets. My money is on Giles or Iwamura
76
People talking about that Mets trade are living in a dream world. Heilman’s good, but Millege has proved that he’s a prospect, and that’s it.
I heard the Metsies are shopping Heilman to the Devil Rays (I forget who they were supposed to get back).
Linebrink for Giles . .. I don’t know about that one. That seems like we’re not getting equal value.
I realize that supposedly Alderson says that second basemen are easy to find, but I don’t think you’re going to find one who will hit .290-.300, knock out 10-20 home runs, play good defense, and is under control for the next five seasons for a very reasonable price. The fact that he doesn’t walk a lot doesn’t take away from his other good qualities. And on top of that, he’s not worth trading when you’re a) creating a hole, and b) bringing in a guy who plays the same position as some of the best hitters we have in the minor leagues.
Just listened to SA on XX. Have to admire him coming onto the radio once a week and say what’s going on.
Explanation of Barfield trade: The biggest problem he had was the fact that he was a young player with whom the fans had formed a connection. The deal came up quickly and Cleveland was going to go in a different direction unless they acted quickly. Because of the weakness at 3rd, they decided to do it. He also said that 2nd base is a much easier position to fill than 2nd. He said Barfield did well last year and they were pleased, but 2nd is just a much easier position to field.
Johnson: Said he expects he will have the same role with the club he did last year, although things could change. Johnson would have to earn more playing time in spring training or early part of the year. Also said Cameron and Giles were likely not to be going anywhere.
Sheffield for Peavy: Not a chance. In fact, he laughed when he was told about the rumor. Interestingly, though, he was initially asked about the rumors of a trade with one of the New York teams with Peavy. He said, “The one that is Peavy for Rodriguez straight up?” I don’t know if that was a trade possibility he knew about or whether he had heard a rumor.
Regarding Japanese Players: Probably not going to spend the posting fee on Matz. Now that Kouzmanoff is here, they’ll have to look at Iwamura again and compare with FA’s for 2B to see if he’s a better option than local FA’s. He said that Corroda (sp?) was on their radar, but he is staying in Japan. He did say that Iwamura is someone they have interest in, more interest than Mulder as a LHSP.
There are only a million first baseman available at pretty much all times. I don’t see us with any desire to trade Adrian Gonzalez. I think Sandy’s rationale is pretty poor right now.
This is gonna take a very long time to get used to. Josh was one of my favorite players and well yeah.
WOW.
I got busy and just found out about the new Manager (happy it’s not Dusty) and the trade of Barfield (not so happy) for a slugging third baseman (happier).
Seems a little rash to trade Barfield. He’s quite good and young and he’ll get better, I think. On the other hand, the Padres also got a young power hitter at third base plus an arm.
This seems to point more at the scarcity of third baseman talents in the MLB for the Padres to get. I hope it works out.
As for ’07 second baseman, I’m not too high on Marcus Giles and wouldn’t want just a straight swap with Linebrink. Maybe another arm from the Braves would be added.
Speaking of LF, how about the Korean outfielder that was also posted? I think he played in WBC and did pretty well.
No Soriano, please, he’s a dog. Alou might be a good power platoon. No Sheffield, either. Too much headache.
What am I to do with the Ducksnort limited edition Barfield got your back shirt now?
SD Padres Gal: you can still have Barfield’s baby. Just make sure to raise the baby as a Padres’ fan.
I really like a Linebrink for Giles trade, and I think it helps both sides. Giles is a good bet to bounce back from last year’s down year and hit .290/.370/.430, which is probably better than what Barfield would have done. Giles is a younger, cheaper, better bet than most of the free agents out there. I have confidence that someone else in the bullpen will appear.
My suggestion for a nickname for Kouzmanoff: the ‘off.
And I do like the idea of Alou, mixed in with Johnson and Sledge, in left.
Good stuff LaMar, thanks for that update.
What do folks think of Mark DeRosa as a second base option?
Possible fluke year, but the guy can play anywhere…
Thanks, LaMar. I happened to catch the tail end of SA’s interview and he also mentioned interest in Japanese LHP Kei Igawa:
Igawa’s stats
I am working on writeups about the hiring of Black and the Barfield/Kouzmanoff trade. Hope to have something up by 10 p.m. PT.
81: Barfield isn’t Gonzalez, at the plate or in the field, as much as you can compare 2B to 1B.
Listening to XX all day, it’s funny to hear fans – as they (we) do – overvalue the hometown guy. I was shocked and would have liked to see Barfield stay but the comparisons to Roberto Alomar and “future perennial all-star” proclamations that I heard are just silly.
I am still wondering how you replace the 70 or so stolen bases that Barfield/Roberts would have given us. A look at our current team speed is worrisome:
C-Bard (None)
1B-Gonzalez Less than None)
2B-?
SS-Greene (10 steals?)
3B-Kouz (None)
LF-?, but looking for power not speed
CF- Cameron (20-30 steals)
RF- Giles (None)
That is pretty bleak.
I’m afraid this FO isn’t going to put much value on speed.
Who besides Brian Giles might bat leadoff?
Is there a leadoff hitting 2B available?
Isn’t a good leadoff hiter very hard to find?
Roberts, unlike Giles, is not yet in the downward phase of his career. (How many players peak at 35 anyway?) I hope somebody can tell me a better option that won’t force us into a station to station nightmare.
I am still looking for a good leadoff “hiter”, by the way.
Is anyone listening to the Coach right now, fielding a call from someone upset about Moneyball? Two crudely drawn perceptions that I’m tired of: The Padres just want a “yes man” and “Moneyball can’t win championships.” It just seems to me that nuance gets trounced in these debates. It’s so much easier to draw conclusions and get riled up by making generalizations, I guess.
Most callers on XX are idiots…
First Moneyball isn’t what most people are saying when they say Moneyball teams don’t win championships. The following Power/Walks/Anti-small-ball teams have won recent World Series: ’05 White Sox, ’04 Red Sox, ’02 Angels, ’01 Diamondbacks, ’95, ’98-’00 Yankees… None of those teams were teams that relied on stolen bases and bunting. All of those teams hit lots of doubles and lots of home runs and walked a fair share of times…
Moneyball says, “We can’t afford to out-spend you, so we’ll outsmart you.”
88: You realize you’re talking about something in the neighborhood of six runs, right?
94: 70 SB, 11 CS
I’m actually not 100% sure of the run values off the top of my head. That may actually be close to 15 runs rather than 6. At any rate, it’s a small number.
Richard,
Who cares about how many runs their worth? Stolen bases are entertaining.
I’m talking about the neighborhood of slow ass Padres teams that routinely can’t score runners from second base on singles to the outfield. I have seen enough groundouts where the runner (Piazza, Gonzalez, Giles) aren’t even in the frame when the first baseman catches the throw.
Give me some team speed!
Good gourd, my grammar is atrocious.
The 2005 White Sox? We all know small ball brought a world championship to the South Side. I’ve fried my brain debating that issue on msg. boards, yelling at talk-show callers and writing columns in my head. Must. Let. Go. The A’s organization has a giant bullseye on its back, thanks in part to Michael Lewis. Until the Silicon Valley Athletics win a WS, “Moneyball” will be a failure in the minds of many. Heck, didn’t the Red Sox win the ’04 series because the Doctor stole a base?
Final post of the night for this sudden post whore: I dig speed, too. I can’t imagine having that many sloths doesn’t possibly cost a win or three. I also get the argument that you don’t score an extra run for crossing the plate a second or two faster.
99: I wasn’t trying to say that having sloths doesn’t hurt you. It does. Being below average running the bases costs you runs. I was just trying to make the point that losing 70 stolen bases isn’t anywhere near the big deal the number 70 seems to suggest.