Nice of me to show up on a Friday, eh? Here are projections for Padres hitters according to the Bill James Handbook 2007
A few general observations are in order: Bill James appears to weigh minor-league stats more heavily than the others (his projections for some players are Kouzmanoff the charts), while Chone and ZiPS appear to ding Padres hitters a bit in terms of power — not sure if that’s a park factor thing or what, but there you go.
Finally, there are other systems out there — namely PECOTA and Ron Shandler — that I didn’t use. This is no reflection on either of them; both do fine work, but I don’t have access to their numbers and I think four is probably enough to give you the general idea.
Okay, to the players.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .283 | .401 | .464 |
| Chone | .273 | .381 | .431 |
| Marcel | .274 | .377 | .435 |
| ZiPS | .279 | .386 | .423 |
| Average | .277 | .386 | .438 |
All four systems project a rebound in batting average for Giles the Elder. James is extremely optimistic about Giles’ OBP and SLG. Everyone else seems him as around .380/.430. That’s about what Kevin Youkilis did for the Boston Red Sox in 2006.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .287 | .345 | .473 |
| Chone | .276 | .341 | .444 |
| Marcel | .294 | .354 | .483 |
| ZiPS | .289 | .350 | .475 |
| Average | .287 | .348 | .469 |
Some variance here, as we might expect for a young player without much of a track record. Chone’s SLG is 30-40 points lower than all the others. Nobody thinks Gonzalez will repeat his .300 batting average. His average line is almost identical to what Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman did last year.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .283 | .348 | .434 |
| Chone | .272 | .342 | .423 |
| Marcel | .293 | .363 | .463 |
| ZiPS | .281 | .356 | .424 |
| Average | .282 | .352 | .436 |
Bard must have been a real pain to project. His 2006 was so out of line with anything he’d done in the past. Marcel is less skeptical of his improvement last year than are the others. I’ll be happy with any of these. Bard’s average line bears strong resemblance to what Ramon Hernandez did in his two seasons with the Padres.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | |||
| Chone | .260 | .329 | .409 |
| Marcel | .269 | .341 | .430 |
| ZiPS | .280 | .347 | .435 |
| Average | .270 | .339 | .425 |
Marcel and ZiPS are pretty close for McAnulty. Chone doesn’t like him as much, but even that projection should be enough to earn him a spot on some big-league team’s bench, especially if he can play even a passable third base. The average line is similar to what Shawn Green did in 2006.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .231 | .329 | .475 |
| Chone | .230 | .332 | .447 |
| Marcel | .248 | .341 | .479 |
| ZiPS | .244 | .340 | .454 |
| Average | .238 | .336 | .464 |
Geez, who cares what the batting average is. That’s a mighty productive player. Guys like Eric Chavez and Brandon Inge are getting paid big bucks to put up those kinds of numbers.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .317 | .378 | .546 |
| Chone | .272 | .329 | .451 |
| Marcel | .267 | .336 | .447 |
| ZiPS | .279 | .334 | .452 |
| Average | .284 | .344 | .474 |
The bad news: We really need to dismiss the James projections; I’d love to see Kouzmanoff outproduce Aramis Ramirez this year, but it’s not going to happen. The good news: Everyone else has Kouzmanoff at around .270/.330/.450. If he does that, he’s basically a younger, cheaper Adrian Beltre.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .281 | .361 | .436 |
| Chone | .262 | .342 | .396 |
| Marcel | .283 | .357 | .430 |
| ZiPS | .276 | .356 | .406 |
| Average | .276 | .354 | .417 |
There’s pretty good consensus for Non-Orange Giles in terms of batting average and OBP. ZiPS doesn’t like his power, and Chone doesn’t like his entire game. The average line is about what the White Sox’ Tadahito Iguchi did last year.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | |||
| Chone | .228 | .365 | .377 |
| Marcel | .278 | .343 | .444 |
| ZiPS | .232 | .366 | .403 |
| Average | .246 | .358 | .408 |
The Marcel projection makes no sense. If he does nothing else, Cust will draw walks. Realistically, we’re looking at the 39-year-old version of Kenny Lofton without speed, defense, or batting average. Not very appealing, is it?
Okay, it’s my wife’s birthday, and I’m going to get in big trouble if I try to finish this right now. We’ll wrap up tomorrow.
Happy Friday!
I wonder why there is no interest in Cust from any of the AL teams? He seems like he can hit and get on base, but is just a horrific defender.
Does anyone know what happened to Park? I just did a search and notice he was offered arbitration along with all sorts of people who went to the Giants. But that’s all I could find on him.
Did we resign him? Is he just going to be a bullpen guy? And did he ever find a doctor that could plug up his innards?
Some of you math-wizards…what’s the difference in the Pads’ lineup if you take the best projection from each hitter vs taking the worst projection from each hitter? And how does that compare to ’06 or ’05? What about vs league average?
1: This really bothers me as well. PECOTA from baseball prospectus is really optimistic on him, giving a park neutral line of .256/.389/.469. My only explanation for an AL team not giving him a chance is that many general managers are incompetent.
PECOTA likes OG, AGon, PMac, Branyan, Kouz, and Cust more than most of the other projections, especially PMac’s & Branyan’s SLG, likes NOG a little less and Bard a lot less than the other systems…
PECOTAs:
OG – 282/394/460
AGon – 289/355/481
Bard – 270/346/410
PMac – 268/348/463
Branyan – 240/346/499
Kouz – 290/348/499
NOG – 264/342/408
Cust – 250/386/454
Those PECOTA OBP projections are pretty sweet. Throw in Cameron’s 348, Sledge’s 353, and of those expected to get the lion’s share of the PAs, the only hiccup is Khalil’s 332.
re: #1 … don’t you think there are a lot of guys with Cust’s skills? The answer to your wonder would seem to be supply & demand, imo. If an NL team has a guy like Cust, don’t you think AL teams have 1-2 of their own?
1090 reporting Wells has been signed by the Padres. No numbers yet, but there are a few incentives. Bud Black likes the depth of his pitching. REACTION!
re: 4 … http://dictionary.reference.com/search?r=2&q=incompetent … I don’t think it’s true that “that many general managers are incompetent” I’m as strong of a believer in “the numbers” as anyone, but the real world is much more complicated than any model of it that I’ve yet seen. Perhaps players with “horrific” defensive skills are not as valuable to AL teams as you suppose? Perhaps there are “off-the-field issues”? Perhaps there are many players with his skillset already in most AL organizations? Perhaps the Padres think he’s worth more in their org than what they can get for him in a trade? (Why did he sign wit the Padres to begin with? Seems likely that AL teams have already passed on him.)
UT is reporting it now as well:
Wells, who turns 44 on May 20, is guaranteed $3 million for 2007 but can make up to $7 million in incentives, most of which are based on games started.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20070119-1751-bn19wells.html
We’ve got to have the best top to bottom rotation in the NL now, right?
re: 8 – I *love* depth in general … it’s underrated by most fans … ie. players 18-25 on the roster have a bigger impact than most fans appreciate / understand …
If you think about it, our 11 to 12 man pitching staff is deep in talent. The every day players may not be “superstars,” but the bench is deep, can hit and we have some versatility. My problem is, without Bellhorn, who will we have to kick around?
12: I really do hate the concept of the 12 man pitching staff.
GY and all y’all DS’ers: Thanks for the projections and discussion. I’m pretty pumped about what I’m seeing. Pessimistic projections for guys like Bard, NOG and Kouz still make us look pretty good. Even a PECOTA line from Bard would be amazing considering we acquired him, AND Meredith, for a guy who could only approach those numbers as a backup catcher once in an 11 year career.
Re: 12 Don’t worry, we still have Blum.
I have been saying for a while that the Padres minor league system lacks upper level star power but has a BUNCH of lower level prospects who are both talented and intriguing. And while I’ve yet to see any mainstreme prospect expers say the same thing, today BA essentially validated my opinion. Today BA released the scouting reports on players who just missed their teams top 30 prospects lists.
As I contend, the Padres have a ton of depth in their lower minors and among the 54 players profiled by BA, 4 are Padres: Rayner Contreras, Luis Durango, Neil Jamison, and John Madden.
While these low-level prospects may not excite you keep in mind many top prospects on various teams came from the 20′s of their teams’ previous year’s top 30…
Kevin Kouzmanoff was #23 in Cleveland’s top 30 in ’06
Cla Meredith was #20 for Boston
Dan Uggla was #29 for the Marlins
Ryan Theriot was #24 for the Cubs
Boof Bonser was #25 for the Twins
(not as lowly rated) Tyler Johnson & Chris Duncan were 15 & 16 for the Cardinals…
I could go on. The bottom line is, the Padres organization isn’t baseball’s crown jewel, but it does have a lot of talent.
I’m pumped!
15: Just what I was about to say. Agree completely.
9: You’re right, I really have no idea of possible deeper reasons. Your defense explanation makes sense: in the age of carrying 12 pitchers, teams don’t want to handicap themselves with a guy that can’t play in the field unless he hits like Thome, Thomas, or Ortiz. Cust isn’t a sure bet and could use a platoon partner, which would kill your bench depth. I still think his hitting would upgrade the team more than the loss of flexibility would hurt it.
Glad to hear Wells is signed. We could still use some more rotation depth.