Friday Links (26 Jan 07)
Fri, Jan 26, 2007
by Geoff Young
News is a bit slow these days. Welcome to the calm before the storm. Here are a few items of potential interest:
- Padres 2007 FriarFest — Just a reminder that this is happening over the weekend. I’m planning to head down there on Saturday.
- Former hurler has instinctive feel for the game (ESPN, via LaMar in the comments). Jerry Crasnick profiles new Padres manager Bud Black. High praise from Angels GM Bill Stoneman, as relayed by Kevin Towers:
Bill told me, “If Bud wanted to be a GM, he could be a GM. If he wanted to be a manager, he could be a manager. And he could handle himself very well even if he was sitting down with the board members and the ownership of your club.”
- Sandy Alderson ‘69 nominated to run for College Board of Trustees (The Dartmouth). This is a must-read. Among other things, Alderson talks about putting Bill James’ then-radical theories on the importance of getting on base into practice:
I got a group of students at Stanford to do regression analyses to see if this approach made sense. I was convinced that it did. We gradually began to apply it in a lot of our decision making in our trades, drafts, acquisitions and so forth.
Big deal, right? Everybody’s doing it, right? In 1983, not so much. In retrospect, I probably was too reserved in my enthusiasm when Alderson was hired. I like what I’ve seen since he’s been here.
- What I love about spring training (ESPN, via Coronado Mike in the comments). If you’re looking for reasons to join us in Peoria at the end of March, you could do worse than read Josh Pahigian’s article.
- Portland Beavers Release 14-Game Spring Training Schedule - PCL (MLN - The Raw Feed). Something else to keep in mind for our trip to spring training is the Beavers’ schedule. Looks like they’ll be playing at home in Peoria that Sunday.
- I forgot to mention that I was on yesterday’s Suicide Fan podcast. We cover a lot of ground here, but I did manage to get in a little word about David Wells.
- ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Giants (Dodger Sims). I’ll leave the explanation to the author. The salient point is that, on paper, the Padres appear to match up very well with the Giants as both teams now stand.
Finally, if you’re interested in doing the spring training thing, drop me a line. Some of you have already contacted me, and I’ll be sending out an email this weekend or early next week to get the ball rolling on actual plans.
Happy Friday, folks. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
January 26, 2007 at 7:25 am
Charges against Peavy dismissed…
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....ote25.html
January 26, 2007 at 7:27 am
Wrong link…sorry. That was a Seattle story from Buster Olney’s blog with an interesting comment about Gil Meche…
Let’s try again…Charges against Peavy dismissed…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....peavy.html
January 26, 2007 at 7:56 am
On another note, both PLNU and USD play this afternoon at 2 p.m. I’ll be at the USD game.
January 26, 2007 at 8:30 am
MVN rates the GM’s and puts Kevin Towers at #5…
A quick question about this comment…”While the Padres farm system is not ripe at this point, Towers has been successful in the draft in the past, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to re-stock it in the near future. ”
Can anyone tell me when KT “has been successful in the draft”? And don’t tell me about Khalil Greene. I know that I have not been the biggest KT supporter since this past August (I was an apologist for a long time), but this seems a bit much.
The full article can be found here…
http://mvn.com/mlb-baseballist.....-managers/
January 26, 2007 at 8:47 am
Drafting players hasn’t been KT’s strong point, making trades and signing under-the-radar free agents has been. Here are the key names drafted under Towers’ watch so far (only guys who have reached the big leagues):
‘96: Jason Middlebrook (9, helped land Jason Bay)
‘98: Sean Burroughs (1), Brian Lawrence (17)
‘99: Mike Thompson (5), Jake Peavy (15)
‘00: Xavier Nady (2, landed Mike Cameron), J.J. Furmaniak (22, landed David Ross) Chad Cordero (26, didn’t sign)
‘01: Josh Barfield (4), David Pauley (8, helped land Dave Roberts) Jason Bartlett (13)
‘02: Khalil Greene (1), Paul McAnulty (12)
‘03: Tim Stauffer (1)
Peavy is the one impact player here. Middlebrook and Nady helped land impact players; Barfield may do the same. The jury is still out on Greene.
January 26, 2007 at 9:06 am
And Jason Bartlett has been playing pretty well for the Minnesota Twins this past season. So far, he hit for average with decent OBP, and he will improve next year hopefully. I haven’t checked his BABIP, however.
January 26, 2007 at 9:14 am
Does anyone know what % of drafted players reach the majors?
Obvious next question is what % of those become everyday players? Impact players?
How does KT match up against everyone else. My guess is that he is not particularly adept, maybe somewhat below average.
His strength is obviously the makings of the bullpen.
January 26, 2007 at 10:18 am
ESPN Hot Stove Heaters has an article today about the “Hottest Minor League System”…The Padres are singled out by ESPN, saying “There are a number of barren farm systems, but San Diego’s stands head and shoulders above … er, below the pack. ”
Go KT.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2742549
January 26, 2007 at 10:50 am
#7:
Jim Callis did a study at BA a while back focusing on the first 10 rounds from 1990 to 1997:
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....kdown.html
Here’s a comparison of what he found with what KT has done from 1996 to 2002:
from left to right: flops, coffee, fringe, regular, good, star
Callis ‘90-’97: 67.1%, 17.1%, 7.8%, 5.1%, 2.1%, 0.9%
Towers ‘96-’02: 82.6%, 11.6%, 1.4%, 2.9%, 1.4%, 0.0%
One of KT’s regulars (Barfield) could end up in the “good” category, and his only “star” (Peavy) wasn’t taken in the first 10 rounds. Still, that’s not pretty.
Go Grady Fuson!
January 26, 2007 at 11:16 am
Thanks Geoff…that was exactly what I was looking for.
What time are you heading to the Fest on Saturday?
January 26, 2007 at 11:19 am
Interesting how few JC players turn out…I would have figured them to be a bit better than HS because you have a little more time to seperate the good from the bad.
January 26, 2007 at 11:24 am
Anyone see the story linked in Olney’s blog about Padres and Phils discussing Aaron Rowand trade?
January 26, 2007 at 11:27 am
Clarification: not a story but a original BO item: The Phillies and Padres have kicked around a possible Aaron Rowand trade, a discussion that could continue after spring training begins. The two sides could have a natural match: The Phillies are looking for bullpen help, and the Padres would like to add a veteran outfielder, and a defense that included Rowand and Mike Cameron and Brian Giles could be exceptional.
January 26, 2007 at 12:13 pm
I would love the headline “Padres trade for Phillies Outfielder”.
Unfortunately, if it were Rowand coming to SD, it would be the wrong Phillies Outfielder…FREE PAT THE BAT!!!
January 26, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Random observation: I’d forgotten how well Greg Maddux’s older brother Mike pitched for the Pads in the early-’90s:
http://www.baseball-reference......mi01.shtml
Among relievers with 100 or more appearances with the club, only Scott Linebrink has a better ERA+.
January 26, 2007 at 12:42 pm
Re: 15 maybe we can snake him away from the brewers and have 3 sets of brothers on the team/coaching staff
January 26, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Re 11: CM, my take on JC players is that they are (for the most part) good high schoolers that didn’t get drafted by MLB or given a ride in at 4 yr University. Thats not to say that from time-to-time some good talent slips through the cracks, or develops a little later than most, but all-in-all I think it is another form of the independent minor leagues. Sometimes you get lucky and find a rough-hewn gem in a big pile of nice looking rocks.
That being said, it is organized baseball with the scouts visiting fairly often and that has some value in it for the ballplayers.
January 26, 2007 at 1:47 pm
PF4L…I wonder how many go on from JC to the University, then get drafted (I have a couple of friends that did this…none of them made it), and what those success #’s look like. Thanks for the answer.
January 26, 2007 at 2:57 pm
A little slap on the Padres found here:
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/.....ker?id=658
Just run your mouse over the Padres and you see their record and that they finished “Second in the NL West” in 2006…run your mouse over the Dodgers and you see them listed “First in the NL West”… Whoops…
January 26, 2007 at 3:51 pm
A good read about the “gyroball” … http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
January 26, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Keith Law joins the parade about the Pads’ farm system: The system’s best prospects are Kevin Kouzmanoff, a low-power corner bat just acquired from Cleveland, and pitcher Cesar Carrillo, who missed the last half of the season with elbow trouble. Years of unproductive drafts have really taken a toll here.
One oddity: He put the vaunted L.A. system at No. 17. No team was hurt by promotions - Kemp, Billingsley - than the Dodgers, he wrote.
January 26, 2007 at 4:53 pm
Job opportunities at Lake Elsinore … http://www.stormbaseball.com/index69.htm … could be some good times there …
January 26, 2007 at 5:03 pm
Inspired by your Transaction Haiku:
Cruising cross country
in a limousene to see
Gwynn enter the Hall
January 26, 2007 at 5:12 pm
Here’s a funny intro statement …
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_5090614
If Todd Helton would only take his creaky body, broken bat and $16.6 million salary and leave town, maybe the meatheads who own the Rockies could afford to buy a clue.
January 26, 2007 at 5:16 pm
Another:
Miles from Petco to
Hall? Two-Eight-Two-Eight. Tony
had more hits than that!
January 26, 2007 at 5:17 pm
#10: CM, I’m hoping to get there at or a little after 11 a.m. I’ll be wearing a CY jersey and Ducksnorts cap. Uh, and pants, of course.
#23: Thanks, Brian. Solid effort.
January 26, 2007 at 6:10 pm
Pants optional?
I will keep my eye out…trying to get there about the same time.
Blue Pads hat with a motorcycle jacket in tow.
January 26, 2007 at 7:03 pm
GY - thanks for the link about SA … that guy’s a STUD!
re: 23 & 25 … haiku *always* appreciated … thanks, BG! (question: what’s the “Transaction Haiku” you refer to?)
January 26, 2007 at 7:09 pm
This is old … from 11/2006 … but it’s a good recap/status of the farm system … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;sid=t510
January 26, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Adrian’s kickin’ some butt in winter ball … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd … it’s not obvious why he’s playing winter ball, is it?
January 26, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Lynch: Check the Transaction Haiku link way up near the top under GY’s ‘@ Knuckle Curve’ link.
For those of you who remember him as an Aztec:
Hit three thirty-eight,
won eight batting titles and
a nice jump shot too.
January 26, 2007 at 9:23 pm
Padres the worst according to ESPN? What a joke. The Padres have Kouzmanoff, Carrillo, and Hunter. There are a lot of teams w/ less talent the our Padres. The Nationals in particular have a barren system.
I’m not naive enough to think the Padres are a top 10, top 15 system, I think they’re in the 20’s but I’d suggest they deserve to be in the 23-5 range. These last two drafts have been nice.
January 26, 2007 at 9:49 pm
31 - I *love* transaction Haiku … *and* Tony Gwynn Haiku!!!
From Brown and Yellow
To Pinstripes of Blue and Orange
Tony Gwynn, Hit Man
http://www.baseballhalloffame......ncrement=9
January 27, 2007 at 7:41 am
32: C’mon, Peter. It’s not just ESPN. It’s virtually every single person who evaluates farm systems for a living.
Just how much are you willing to knock off for Carrillo’s injury and poor year? Anything at all?
There’s Kouzmanoff in AAA and Hunter in the lowest of A. Between them there’s nothing. Pitching is a blank.
There are NOT a “lot” of teams with less minor league talent than us. Washington is 1 team, and they’re a maybe. We should pass them this year.
January 27, 2007 at 9:55 am
34: To correct myself - Not “nothing” between Hunter and Kouzmanoff, but nothing that strong, either. Blanks, Huffman, Freese are all interesting, but not so different from what 28 other teams have. As we saw with some of our college draftees from 2005, big numbers in rookie ball don’t always continue.
Our top MI prospect is Luis Cruz, who had a 301 OBP this year, compared to a 281 lifetime mark. Antonelli will take that spot if he moves to 2b and if his lateral movement is enough for him to stay there. Our top C prospect is Nick Hundley, another questionable bat. We don’t have a CF prospect unless Antonelli goes there instead of 2b.
January 27, 2007 at 10:36 am
Kouzmanoff, Hunter, Huffman and Freese are all at least interesting. I’d imagine we’re pretty close to the worst in the Majors, though.
January 27, 2007 at 10:41 am
Kouzmanoff is a top bat, but he’s just one man and the scouts seem suspicious of him staying at 3b. I have no problem saying Hunter looks very good, but it was Arizona.
I like Freese a lot, but we have to be realistic. He could easily be Jon Knott Part Two. Knott could have been useful but he was never the kind of player who would be a big deal on a major league team or a big trade chip.
January 27, 2007 at 11:32 pm
Kouz is a light power guy who led all of the minors in SLG%??? Sometimes the scouts make NO sense whatsoever.