Ducksnorts Fantasy Baseball

It’s that time of year again. Coronado Mike has been good enough to set up a free 12-team 5 x 5 league for us at ESPN. Drop me a line if interested, and I’ll send out an invite. First-come, first-served.

[Update: Apparently the invite I sent didn't work; I'm investigating this now. If I sent you one and you can't get in, hang tight and we'll get you hooked up asap. Thanks!]

[Update #2: We've sent out invites to the first 12 folks who requested them; assuming everyone accepts, the league is now closed. Thanks!]

Cheap Relievers at Hardball Times

No, the relievers aren’t actually there. This is just my latest article at THT. Enjoy. :-)

Spring Training Notes (18 Feb 07)

Wait, I’m here on a Sunday? It must be spring training. Ah, it feels good just to say that. To the Notemobile:

Right-hander Chris Young is working on his changeup. I know a lot of us marveled at Young’s ability to get guys out seemingly with one pitch at times last year, so this can only help. Quoth pitching coach Darren Balsley: “It’s not like we’re coming up with a new pitch. He’s got a good one.” Okay, then; let’s see more of it this season.

Left fielder Terrmel Sledge has arrived in camp early with a positive attitude. He’s also checking in at 195 pounds, down from last year’s 210. Fewer fried foods and desserts, more cross-training.

Tim Sullivan has a nice little piece on Sledge in the U-T with some choice quotes:

All I can do is go out there and bust my tail. My destiny lies in my own hands. It’s no one else’s fault. It’s all on me. So it’s good in that way because I have control of the situation. I know I’m in position to excel. This is my shot.

Here’s hoping it works out for him and the Padres.

Greg Maddux made his Padres debut on Saturday. The U-T’s Tom Krasovic marvels at his fielding prowess, while Lyle Spencer at Padres.com notes Maddux’s emphasis on the present: “What you did yesterday doesn’t matter. It’s what you do now.”

Spencer also points out that Maddux and new Padres manager Bud Black once faced each other in a June 11, 1991, matchup at Wrigley Field. The Giants won the game, though neither pitcher figured in the decision. Maddux popped into a double play in his only at-bat against Black, while Black struck out and flied to left against Maddux.

Down on the farm, Cesar Carrillo is making progress. The right-hander, who strained a ligament in his throwing elbow last summer, has thrown three bullpen sessions this spring and is slated to start the season at Triple-A Portland if healthy. Quoth GM Kevin Towers:

We want to take him along slowly. We want to be cautious with him because he’s one of our top young pitching prospects we have in our system. We have our fingers crossed that there won’t need to be a surgical procedure.

Towers also hopes that Carrillo will be in San Diego by the end of the season. I think most of us can get behind that sentiment.

Finally, Spencer has penned an article on everyone’s favorite trade target, Scott Linebrink. Nice quote from Trevor Hoffman, talking about what the loss of Linebrink would mean to the team:

Let’s not look at it just from the bullpen’s standpoint — he’s an integral part of this team’s success. I think it’s extremely flattering to him that he’s sought after by other clubs, but there’s a reason for that.

There it is. Happy spring training, folks. Go Padres!

Padres’ 2007 Opening Day Roster: Our Best Guesses

We had 21 entrants in our little contest. Here is the consensus:

SP: Clay Hensley (21), Greg Maddux (21), Jake Peavy (21), David Wells (21), Chris Young (21)

RP: Heath Bell (11), Doug Brocail (13), Trevor Hoffman (21), Scott Linebrink (20), Cla Meredith (21), Royce Ring (19), Scott Strickland (13)

C: Josh Bard (21), Rob Bowen (17)

INF: Geoff Blum (21), Russell Branyan (21), Marcus Giles (21), Adrian Gonzalez (21), Khalil Greene (21), Kevin Kouzmanoff (21), Todd Walker (19)

OF: Mike Cameron (21), Jose Cruz Jr. (19), Brian Giles (21), Terrmel Sledge (20)

Numbers in parentheses represent how many entrants had player on their opening day roster. Most of the questions are in the bullpen, which should come as no surprise. We also expect Marcus Giles to score the Padres’ first run of the season.

Good luck, everyone!

Friday Links (16 Feb 07)

Super lightning style today.

  • Manager Black ready to be second-guessed (San Diego Union-Tribune). Tim Sullivan talks about new manager Bud Black. A lot of fluff, but one passage stood out for me

    There’s some things that we can’t let you know. (Maybe) a guy is having personal problems at home and something happened and he didn’t get any sleep at night and he’s just a wreck. Or a guy has a little bit of a bad (hamstring). Maybe our pinch runner has a little bit of a leg problem. And we can’t run him on a certain night where it looks like a perfect situation to run.

    Something to bear in mind as we dissect every move during the spring and summer. :-)

  • New boss, same routine for Padres (North County Times). Skip to the notes: Adrian Gonzalez, Russell Branyan, and Paul McAnulty all arrived to camp early. Gotta love it.
  • Gaslamp Ball Interview with Paul DePodesta Part III. Dex and jbox wrap things up today. They cover the relationship between team chemistry and winning, the importance of balancing statistical analysis with traditional scouting methods, and more. Fantastic stuff!
  • Notes: Buddies battling for roster spot (Padres.com). Leo Rosales? Sean Thompson? Hey, it could happen. Here’s the disturbing part: “When the season opens in San Francisco, new manager Bud Black will be carrying 11 or 12 pitchers, most likely 12.” Ack, no more 12-man staffs.

Also, a few notes:

  • I know I’m way behind on my emails. I’ve read everything but I haven’t had a chance to respond. If you haven’t heard from me about something, I heartily apologize; things will clear up once the book is done.
  • Speaking of the book, thanks to everyone who has volunteered to help. If you haven’t heard from me yet, don’t worry — you will. :-)
  • We’re getting a Ducksnorts fantasy league started. Coronado Mike is leading the charge on that. Feel free to discuss in the comments.
  • Tonight at 11:59 p.m. PT is the deadline to enter the 2007 Opening Day Roster Contest.

Happy Friday, everyone. Go Padres!

Pitchers and Catchers

Can you feel it? Pitchers and catchers report today (spring roster). What can we expect in ’07? A couple of articles this morning may hold some clues. Hint: throwing strikes is good.

First, the guys at Gaslamp Ball continue their interview with Paul DePodesta. Among many other things, DePo talks about how difficult but important it is to measure defense:

I think there is a lot of work being done in general with defensive metrics. I don’t think there are any that people are perfectly happy with. There is a lot more subjectivity with defense. It’s also just a lot tougher to measure. The primary reason being, as of right now, we can’t measure where every single player starts. So just measuring ultimately the outcome deprives us of the beginning context of the play, which is critically important if you are going to use it as a reliable metric. So we’re all going to keep trying because it is a critical element of the game and can’t just be overlooked.

This goes hand in hand with something DePodesta mentioned in Part 1 of the interview, that rotation newcomers Greg Maddux and David Wells “force contact.” We’re basically looking at the Minnesota Twins model here: Get pitchers to throw strikes and put your defense to work.

Another point DePodesta makes relates to innovation, which is paramount to the success of a “small-market team”:

We certainly don’t want to be behind the curve, but we also more importantly and more positively, we want to be on the cutting edge as much as we can. Sandy has a reputation and history of being on the cutting edge.

That last sentence is an understatement. Sandy Alderson was reading and applying the wisdom of Bill James back when most baseball folks thought James was a nutcase.

I also love DePo’s eloquent reminder of baseball’s appeal:

We know we don’t have this game figured out. That’s kind of the beauty of baseball is that we know we never will.

Can I get an amen from the congregation?

Meanwhile, over at the U-T, the emphasis on “throwing to contact” also turns up in Tom Krasovic’s article. One area where the Padres have been able to gain a competitive advantage in recent years is through building a cheap but effective bullpen. Here’s a great quote from GM Kevin Towers:

With relievers, it’s easier to get somebody who is on the rebound, if you identify the right type of pitcher.

Did you notice the way Towers just slipped “if you identify the right type of pitcher” in there like it’s no big deal? Folks, that’s why he gets paid the big bucks.

Spring training begins now. Yeah, I think I can feel it.

. . .

Reminder: Your picks for 2007 Opening Day roster are due by 11:59 p.m. PT Friday (tomorrow). Winner gets a spiffy Ducksnorts T-shirt.

Help Wanted

There is no great writing, only great rewriting.
– Louis Brandeis

Are we there yet?
– me

I have a small favor to ask. I’ve got three chapters that need a good read through, and I could use your help. One is on the ’98 season, one is on Gwynn’s 3000th hit, and one is on Kevin Towers’ trade record. The first two run roughly 25 pages combined, while the latter is that long on its own. I’ll need a fairly quick turnaround — the end of the weekend, if possible — so it would be great if we could split up the work.

If interested and available, please drop me a line. You will have my undying gratitude.

For everyone else, here are a couple of fantastic reads:

Enjoy!

Tuesday Open Thread

Some possible items of discussion:

Or whatever else strikes yer fancy…

Gossage Inducted, Masur Hired, San Diegans Too Laid Back

That got your attention, didn’t it? Goose Gossage will be inducted into the San Diego Hall of Champions Tuesday night. This might not be the Hall of Fame that Gossage, who now resides in Colorado, had been hoping for, but he’ll take it. He’ll also take the opportunity to grace the world with some choice quotes. Here’s my favorite:

But back then, we were our own setup men. Guys like Rollie (Fingers), Mike Marshall, Sparky Lyle, Dan Quisenberry and myself were our own setup men. I worked the seventh and the eighth as well as the ninth.

I’ll tell you one thing, to sit in the dugout after getting out of an eighth-inning jam waiting for the ninth is apples and oranges from coming in from the bullpen to start the ninth fresh. I think the setup guy often faces a tougher situation than the closer.

I actually took a cursory look at Gossage’s workload in 1975 a while back over at Knuckle Curve. What I found shocked me. For instance, he worked three innings or more in just over a third of his appearances that year, and faced 20 or more batters in a game on six different occasions. Can you imagine asking a closer to do something like that now?

The other point worth mentioning is Gossage’s final sentence in the previous quote about the importance of setup men, which echoes what many sabermetricians have been claiming for years. I expect he arrived at his findings in a slightly different manner, but the conclusion remains the same.

Yes, But Can He Play Guitar and Get Runners Thrown Out at the Plate?

The Padres have hired Andy Masur to join mainstays Ted Leitner and Jerry Colemen in the radio booth this season. Masur takes over for Tim Flannery, who followed Bruce Bochy to San Francisco and became the Giants’ third base coach. Masur previously hosted pregame and postgame shows for the Chicago Cubs, so his memories of 1984 might be a little different from ours. ;-)

Hey Man, We Lost — Bummer, Dude

Mark Zeigler advances a few interesting theories about why San Diego hasn’t seen a big winner in any of the major sports. I think he may be onto something. Key quote from sports psychologist Steven Ungerleider:

It’s a laid-back culture and a laid-back sports culture, and you’re not going to have as high expectations to win. That can send a message to athletes and owners: ‘We want to win, sure. But it’s not the end of the world. We’re also interested in other things. We’re interested in having fun.’

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I’d like to see more of a killer instinct from my teams. On the other, I’m not sure it’s worth the tradeoff of having to exist in an environment where winning is all that matters. At the risk of sounding incredibly elitist, living in San Diego is pretty much its own reward. If you don’t believe me, go to a public place sometime and eavesdrop on tourists plotting ways to blow their life savings so they can move their family of five into a closet behind some laundromat in Encanto.

This brings me to the next point Zeigler makes. It’s one that frustrates me to no end. I’m not a native San Diegan but I’ve lived here for nearly 20 years and I’ve been in SoCal for all but the first year or so of my life. Quoth Scott Sarver, former baseball coach at Point Loma Nazarene University:

How long does it take you to find a fan of another team in San Diego? About two minutes. How long would it take you in Green Bay? There are just so many other (sports) cultures here that it contributes to the softening of our own culture, because you don’t have everyone on the same page.

It’s not just sports, of course; it’s anything. I’ve complained numerous times about displaced New Yorkers who can’t find “good pizza” in San Diego. Hey, I know where you can get some “good pizza”; c’mon, I’ll give you a ride to the airport.

Not that folks from other places aren’t welcome. Obviously they are. But why not make at least some effort to adapt to the existing culture? I’m from Los Angeles; I don’t hate the Dodgers the way a lot of Padres fans do but I sure as heck hope we beat ‘em every time. And I don’t spend my days pining for LA. If I liked it so damn much, I’d be living there now.

Anyway.

San Diego is too laid back? It’s full of expats from other places? Former Padres pitching coach Dave Stewart ain’t buying it:

It has absolutely nothing to do with the city. It has everything to do with who’s in the uniforms. You get to a certain point, and the only thing that matters is what a player does in that situation on that day.

I admire Stewart’s stand-up attitude, but I wonder if he’s missing something. Or maybe I’m the one missing something. Like, say, a championship team?

2007 Home Opener at Tony Gwynn Stadium

Here are a few photos from SDSU’s 7-4 victory over Santa Clara on Friday night:

Tony Gwynn Stadium at San Diego State University

SDSU left-hander Donnie Hume

SDSU catcher Frank LoNigro, with unidentified Santa Clara batter

Also, did you realize that Tony Gwynn didn’t wear #19 during his playing days at SDSU? I took a photo of the Aztec Wall of Fame beyond right field that documents this, but it came out blurry. Gwynn wore #28. Who wore #19? That would be Padres manager Bud Black. :-)