Thoughts from Two Prospects

by Geoff Young on Mar 15, 2007 (8) Comments

I’m kind of in full promotional mode right now, so this will be brief. Just wanted to point out a couple of cool items out there:

  • Prospect Interview with Brent Carter. J.C. Bradbury, esteemed author of The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, did a little Q&A with Padres left-hander Brent Carter. Some choice snippets from Carter:

    If you’re a baseball fan, it’s hard not to like Moneyball. It’s been a few years since I have read it, but I remember the Chad Bradford story, and Giambi’s Hole pretty well. When it was first published it seemed the “Moneyball” concept was cutting edge stuff, so that’s what I really liked about it.

    Yep, everyone loves the Bradford story. And Scott Hatteberg; don’t forget him. Anyway, we’re talking about Carter. Check this out:

    Stat-heads are looked at differently. Some people think it’s a waste of time, but others, like me, try to use it as a tool I can use to help me get better. Perfect example — my batting average against (BAA) lefties last year was .377. That really hit home with me and told me that as soon as my Achilles got well enough for me to throw, then I have got to start working on a pitch that runs away from lefties.

    The interview continues in that manner; it’s a worthy read. Seriously, where else are you going to find someone asking a minor-league pitcher what he thinks about DIPS?

  • Prospect Diary: Dirk Hayhurst. I was going to save this for the weekly link roundup, but it’s too cool not to share right now. Over at Baseball America, right-hander Dirk Hayhurst checks in from spring training with his thoughts on the experience. This is great because it’s his own words and almost none of it has to do with baseball. Hayhurst arrived late to camp and didn’t get his first choice of living quarters. What to do, what to do:

    I managed to find another older guy in a suite without a roommate. He snores like a dragon and no one wanted to room with him (which explains his lack of an eager roomie candidate).

    I wanted a suite, so I took my chances. I know this guy, and I know his potential to rattle the walls, practically shaking the foundation of the building. I also know that for some strange reason people who snore always fall asleep faster then those who don’t. It’s like some cruel joke. This guy is also one of the guys who falls asleep fast and does not wake once he’s down for the night. I could already see myself waking up angry and launching something, anything, at him to shut him up so I could get some sleep. I am a light sleeper so I pretty much committed sleep suicide when I decided to room with him.

    Very entertaining read. Apparently Hayhurst is one of BA’s “featured diary scribes for 2007″ so I’m hoping we’ll get more of this throughout the season. I don’t know about you, but for me, these stories never get old.

That’s all for now. Oh yeah, don’t forget to buy the book. :-)

The Book Has Arrived!

by Geoff Young on Mar 14, 2007 (37) Comments

My grandmother died in January 2006 after living a long and rich life. Born in Albany, N.Y., not far from the Baseball Hall of Fame, she inadvertently fueled my passion for the game when I was a young boy. A friend of hers worked as the house doctor at Dodger Stadium in the mid-’70s and used to give her media sheets from games past, which she then gave to me. They had no value to her, but she saw how I pored over them as though they represented great truths of humankind. If only I would apply myself in other areas the way I did when examining baseball statistics, the written record of my heroes.

But I didn’t, and so here I am, fascinated by baseball and the story it tells, trying to further my understanding of what I still believe to be the great truths of humankind. My grandmother’s is the highest standard I know, and it is to her that I dedicate this book. I hope she finds it worthy. I hope you do, too.

Baseball is an unstoppable force that transcends individual lives. Thank you for sharing it with me…

The Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual is now shipping; author sold separately

Greene Feels at Home Away from Home

by Geoff Young on Mar 13, 2007 (32) Comments

The UT ran an article about Khalil Greene the other day. Tom Krasovic’s piece talked a little about Greene’s defense, his freak hand injuries, the strange fixation on his personality, and his severe home-road splits.

Today I’m not interested in his glove, his broken bones, or his even demeanor. Today I’m looking at how he has performed at and away from Petco Park.

Khalil Greene: Home vs Away, 2004 – 2006
  PA BA OBP SLG ISO XB/H PA/HR BB/PA
Home 745 .236 .306 .361 .125 .303 49.7 .090
Away 745 .277 .340 .507 .230 .497 24.8 .067
Stats courtesy of ESPN.

Weird that Greene has the exact same number of plate appearances home and away since the Padres moved downtown. Anyway, I didn’t realize just how much power he’s been flashing away from Petco Park — some players that had roughly the same ISO in 2006 are Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Nick Johnson, Miguel Cabrera, and Garrett Atkins.

To his credit, Greene seems to realize that he hits for more power on the road and has adopted a much more aggressive approach there. Let’s look at the yearly breakdowns:

Khalil Greene: Home vs Away, 2004
  PA BA OBP SLG ISO XB/H PA/HR BB/PA
Home 276 .241 .345 .338 .097 .236 92.0 .134
Away 278 .301 .353 .543 .242 .481 23.2 .075
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

Greene showed zero power at home in Petco Park’s first year of existence. Check out the walks, too. That rate at home is about what Kevin Youkilis did last year, while the road numbers are in line with Jose Reyes’ 2006.

Khalil Greene: Home vs Away, 2005
  PA BA OBP SLG ISO XB/H PA/HR BB/PA
Home 242 .256 .285 .399 .143 .333 40.3 .045
Away 234 .244 .308 .465 .221 .538 26.0 .060
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

Greene continued to show good power on the road. The patient approach at Petco Park disappeared, although he made some gains in the power department. Still, his overall numbers remained a bit shaky.

Khalil Greene: Home vs Away, 2006
  PA BA OBP SLG ISO XB/H PA/HR BB/PA
Home 227 .210 .282 .346 .136 .349 37.8 .086
Away 233 .280 .356 .507 .227 .483 25.9 .086
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

So, the power away from Petco Park appears to be legit. Greene’s road ISO is consistently above .220 and his XB/H is consistently above .480. In fact, his road ISO generally is among the best in the NL. In 2004, he was between Sammy Sosa and Jeff Kent, in 2006 the names were Adam Dunn and Lance Berkman, and last year they were Mike Piazza and Dan Uggla.

None of this should be taken as an apology for Greene or for Petco Park. He plays half his games there; he needs to learn how to use it to his advantage. Until he does, Greene’s overall numbers will continue to keep him in the company of Pedro Feliz and Miguel Olivo rather than the elite power hitters of the game.

Final Book Update

by Geoff Young on Mar 12, 2007 (25) Comments

Most of you already know this, but for anyone who has been living in a cave over the winter, I quit my job in November to work full time on the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual. I’m very pleased to announce that, thanks to the help of many kind folks, the project is nearly complete. Here’s a quick update:

  • The book is with the printer, and I should receive a proof copy by Wednesday, March 14; assuming all is well, the book will go on sale by the end of the week.
  • The price is $17.95 plus shipping and handling for paperback, or $9.56 for a PDF download; these price points ensure that my cut is the same regardless, so get whichever works best for you.
  • Padres CEO Sandy Alderson wrote the foreword; I can’t begin to express my gratitude to Mr. Alderson for taking time out of his busy schedule to make such a contribution.

Thanks again to everyone (and if you’re reading this, I’m talking to you) who helped make my dream a reality. I will let you know the moment the book goes on sale.

I’ve tried to keep the hype to a minimum so far, but now it’s almost time to act. Tell everyone you know: we’re just about ready to take over the world. Go Padres!

Gwynn Honored at Petco Park

by Geoff Young on Mar 11, 2007 (3) Comments

We made it down to the Tony Gwynn Classic held at Petco Park on Saturday. Among the many people in attendance to honor Gwynn were Padres owner John Moores, Padres CEO Sandy Alderson, former SDSU baseball coach Jim Dietz, former SDSU basketball coach Tim Vezie, Padres radio broadcaster Ted Leitner (serving as master of ceremonies), and several members of Gwynn’s immediate family.

Two articles I found:

Some photos I took:

Tony Gwynn at Petco Park

Banner honoring Tony Gwynn

Tony Gwynn at Petco Park

Spring Training IGD: Padres vs Rockies (10 Mar 07)

by Geoff Young on Mar 10, 2007 (19) Comments

first pitch: 12:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young, Doug Brocail, Cla Meredith, Steve Watkins, Adrian Burnside vs Rodrigo Lopez, Oscar Rivera, Matt Herges, Eric DuBose, Darren Clarke

Hello? Is this thing on? Welcome to our first IGD of the spring. Someone say something, please. Don’t make me sit here and talk to myself…

Friday Links (9 Mar 07)

by Geoff Young on Mar 09, 2007 (16) Comments

Before we get to the links, I have a quick book update. Actually, it’s that the update will come on Monday. Yes, this is a tease, but I promise I’ll make it worth your wait.

Onto the links:

  • Finding 8th hitter a major priority (San Diego Union-Tribune). Who are the candidates? Good question:

    Whoever bats eighth will be manning a crucial spot, Black said, because an effective No. 8 hitter is more apt to prevent the team’s pitcher from leading off an inning. Sledge, Greene and Kouzmanoff are among the candidates to replace Barfield, the team’s primary No. 8 hitter last year, and the bar was set fairly high.

    My personal opinion is that spot in the order doesn’t matter nearly as much as getting the right guys on the field. But that’s easy for me to say because I don’t have to bat. Khalil Greene has the most experience in that spot, batting .262/.349/.404 from the #8 hole in nearly 500 career plate appearances. As a point of reference, Padres #8 hitters notched a .257/.295/.386 line in 2006.

  • Lamar’s Brocail takes career to heart (Pueblo Chieftain). Here’s an angle on reliever Doug Brocail‘s comeback last year that I hadn’t considered:

    I wanted to prove a point. I didn’t feel like a stent was enough to take me out of the game… I knew it was kind of a guinea pig situation, but if it prolonged somebody else’s career, so be it.

    There’s also a great bit in here about Brocail’s relationship with former Tigers manager Buddy Bell. I love what Brocail says Bell told him during their time in Detroit: “You will probably never start again in your life, but there was no reason you should have ever been a starter either.”

  • Thompsons offer Padres double take on mound (Pueblo Chieftain). I’m pretty sure this is the last time I’ll reference a paper from Pueblo twice in the same post. Anyway, this one is on right-hander Mike Thompson and left-hander Sean Thompson.
  • Old faces may fill out Bevo lineup (Portland Tribune). A quick look at who might break camp with the Triple-A Portland Beavers.
  • Breit throws way into minors (cybersilhouette). Neat little article on minor-league right-hander Aaron Breit in the paper of his alma mater, Garden City Community College.
  • Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 31-40 (AaronGleeman.com). Kevin Kouzmanoff checks in at #35.
  • Best Base Runners in Baseball (Tiger Tales). I’ve known Lee Panas in the virtual world since we started chatting on the old AOL STATS message boards more than a decade ago. He always delivers the goods, and this is no exception. Former Padres Josh Barfield and Dave Roberts rank very highly on Lee’s list. Be sure to follow the link in the first paragraph to get a better idea of his methods. Good stuff.

Also, we’ve got a (relatively) new poll up asking how many different starting pitchers the Padres will use in 2007. Go make a difference, or at the very least, feel like you’re making one. ;-)

Finally, we’ll fire up the first IGD of 2007 for Saturday’s televised game against the Rockies. It starts at noon PT, so there’s no excuse not to check in before you head out to the Tony Gwynn Classic. Well, there are plenty of excuses, but just be here.

Happy Friday, and go Padres!

Hardball Times 2007 Season Preview

by Geoff Young on Mar 08, 2007 (24) Comments

While I’m putting the finishing touches on my own book, I should mentioned that The Hardball Times has published its first ever season preview book. From the site:

We think it’s somewhere in between a typical fantasy baseball magazine and an in-depth book like Baseball Forecaster or Baseball Prospectus. It contains three-year statistical projections for virtually all major leaguers and many minor leaguers, as well as reviews of every major league team and several general articles. When you purchase the book, you’ll also have access to a spreadsheet that contains all of the player projections.

It’s good stuff, and I’d say that even if I didn’t contribute the section on the Padres. ;-)

Young, Giles, McAnulty Strong in Padres ’07 TV Debut

by Geoff Young on Mar 07, 2007 (21) Comments

Got to watch my first Padres game on TV last night. Thanks to the magic of TiVo, I got to watch it again this morning. :-)

Yes, I forgot to set up an IGD. We’ll get the first one of the year going this Saturday for the game against Colorado. While we’re waiting for that glorious occasion, here are my notes from Tuesday’s contest:

  • The Diamondbacks had only three regulars in their lineup: Orlando Hudson, Conor Jackson, and Carlos Quentin.
  • Not that I want to get into fashion too much, but the gold band over the ear on the Padres’ caps this spring is hideous; it looks like a giant rubber band. Also, I’ll need some time to get used to the Diamondbacks’ new red tops; I kept thinking they were the Astros.
  • Chris Young looked great. He threw 41 pitches over three innings. By my count, 31 of those were fastballs, with all but one of the rest being breaking balls. Against the legit starters, he got Hudson to fly to center on a first pitch fastball in the first, fanned Jackson on a nasty slider down in the second (Mark Grant praised Young’s release point on this one), and gave up a ground ball single between short and third to Quentin in the second. Young also threw one changeup that I could see — a 1-0 pitch to Dave Krynzel in the third that had nice drop and that Krynzel swung over. The usual caveats about my untrained eye apply.
  • The movement on Brandon Webb’s pitches is sick. Pads did a nice job of waiting him out in the first, forcing him to throw around 30 pitches and scoring two runs in the process. Good approaches at the plate.
  • The U-T says that Brian Giles has improved his stance. I couldn’t tell a difference, but he had three terrific at-bats: two walks and a double to right on a 3-2 pitch from a lefty. I’d never heard of the pitcher (Evan MacLane) but he gave Adrian Gonzalez and Russell Branyan fits.
  • Khalil Greene had a real nice at-bat in the first, grounding an RBI single to right on a 2-2 sinker on the outer half. I’d love to see him use the entire field more this year. And stay healthy, but that goes without saying.
  • Jon Weisbarth interviewed Kevin Kouzmanoff (not in the lineup) after the second inning. Kouz praised Josh Barfield and acknowledged that he feels pressure but expressed confidence in his defense at third base. He hit a homer earlier in the day that smashed into the winshield of a car that belongs to a Channel 4 staffer. Quoth Kouzmanoff: “I thought it was guys from the other team, and that’s why we were aiming for those cars.” Nice save, rookie.
  • Contrary to what his line indicates, Scott Linebrink looked good. He had Hudson struck out to lead off the fourth but the plate umpire called the 2-2 pitch a ball and Hudson ended up drawing a walk. Linebrink then nearly struck out Jackson. After falling behind 3-0, the right-hander got Jackson to swing at a full-count pitch that he just got a piece of but that Bard couldn’t hang onto for the out.
  • Marcus Giles turned a beautiful double play to end the fourth. Took the feed from Greene and managed to turn and throw despite an onrushing Quentin. The throw was in the dirt, but Gonzalez made a nice scoop.
  • Branyan was credited with a double in the fourth. Looks great in the box score but it was a routine fly ball to center that clanked off Krynzel’s glove. No clue what the official scorer was thinking. Branyan’s clean swipe of third was impressive; pitcher forgot he was there, I guess.
  • Geoff Blum knocked a pinch-hit double to right. Yep, hanging slider.
  • Justin Upton is huge.
  • Terrmel Sledge, who didn’t play in the game, tells Weisbarth that his legs feel good. Is it me, or does Sledge look a little like Muhammad Ali?
  • Who the heck are Adam Shabala, Brian Myrow, and Aaron Rakers? I have no idea, but they all got into the game for the Padres.
  • Paul McAnulty, fighting Sledge for the starting left field job, looked good. He made a real nice play to cut off a ball headed to the gap in left-center, holding Alberto Callaspo to a single in the sixth. P-Mac also had terrific at-bats all night. He is ready and should be playing in the big leagues for somebody this season. I hope it’s us.
  • Scott Strickland worked behind in the count during his inning. Did a nice job getting out of a jam.
  • Royce Ring isn’t quite the knuckle dragger that Cla Meredith is. Ring’s delivery is more a low three-quarters.
  • Second baseman Craig Stansberry is very fast.
  • Shortstop Luis Cruz was completely overpowered by reliever Juan Cruz. I always forget about Juan Cruz. He’s a guy who still has big upside; I hate to see guys like that on the Diamondbacks.
  • Wally Joyner sighting in the eighth. Apparently he’s working with the minor leaguers.
  • Heath Bell has a herky-jerky delivery. He comes straight over the top. Grant and Matt Vasgersian compare his build to Pete Harnisch and Jason Jennings, especially the lower half; tree-trunk thighs. Bell gives up a run on three hits, but as with Linebrink, the line doesn’t do his performance justice. The first hit is a grounder up the middle that Stansberry backhands but can’t beat the runner with his throw. Then Bell had Danny Richar struck out on an 0-2 pitch that the plate umpire missed; Richar ended up knocking a single to left. The RBI single to Upton was legit. Regardless, Bell looked solid. He located his fastball and showed a nice curve.

Well, that’s what I saw anyway. Good to have games to talk about again.

Tuesday Links (6 Mar 07)

by Geoff Young on Mar 06, 2007 (19) Comments

Quick reminder to the folks here in San Diego that tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks will be televised on Channel 4 at 6 p.m. PT. Until then, here’s what’s going on:

Left Field

Who’s in left? Good question. The assumption has been Terrmel Sledge, but he’s really just the leading candidate headed into spring training. He’s also off to a nice start, so this could be answered sooner rather than later.

Pitching to Contact

Throw strikes. Get ahead in the count. Resolve at-bats as quickly as possible (in your favor, of course). Be economical, efficient. Work deeper into games. Save the bullpen, save yourself.

Okay, that was weird. Here’s what some other folks have to say on the matter:

  • Strong man on Padres’ mound (North County Times). Right-hander Jake Peavy is working on locating his fastball with greater consistency. One of the more aggravating things to watch last year was Peavy get ahead in the count and then take forever to put guys away. If he and Chris Young can improve their efficiency (hint: watch Greg Maddux and David Wells), they could be scary good.
  • Padres hurlers want contact (Padres.com). Young, for his part, points to an improved changeup as one weapon that will help him pitch with greater efficiency. I’ve done some research in this area, and if he Peavy and Young could get their pitches per plate appearance down to around 3.60, they’d each be able to work to two more hitters per game. Think that might help the bullpen a little?
  • Pitching to contact (via Baseball Musings). Just a little more fodder for the discussion.

Front Office

  • Moores is world serious(San Diego Union-Tribune). Yesterday we were talking about payroll. Here’s a little something to chew on: “[John] Moores, who projects a payroll of about $70 million for the Padres, lauded the White Sox for winning the 2005 World Series with a $75.2 million payroll that ranked 13th of 30 clubs; and the 2006 Cardinals who, after eliminating the Padres in the divisional playoffs, prevailed with an $88.9 million payroll that ranked 11th of 30.”
  • Building on some of the data I presented yesterday (this stuff is all in the book, BTW, which is tantalizingly close to being finished), here’s a quick rebuttal to those who might think it impossible to compete without spending obscene amounts of money:
    2001 – 2006 (average)
    Team Wins Rank Payroll Rank
    Yankees 98.67 1 $163,021,564.33 1
    A’s 95.5 2 $50,195,043.17 23
    Red Sox 91.5 5 $114,875,307.00 2
    Twins 90 6 $48,871,167.67 24
    Source: Baseball-Reference.com

    Just something to consider.

  • Towers explains contract renewal process (Friar John’s Blog). Hey look, a new Padres blog. Woo-hoo! Anyway, Friar John had a nice little chat with GM Kevin Towers about contract renewal, which may help shed some light on the recent case of Adrian Gonzalez. This is fascinating: “There was a $50,000 increase in this last CBA, which is a raise. Regardless of how you get it, it’s a raise and the ballclubs have to pay that raise. One thing that I think is lost here is that if Adrian had signed our offer at $391,500, he would have received the largest raise for a one-plus player in franchise history.”

Human Interest

What would spring be without a couple of feel-good stories? Fortunately, we’ve got two real good ones this year.

  • Farmhand Ketchner follows the lead of baseball’s most prominent deaf player (North County Times). This one talks about the role Curtis Pride has played in helping to push lefty Ryan Ketchner toward his dreams of becoming a big-league pitcher. My paternal grandparents were deaf, and aside from hearing, there really wasn’t anything they couldn’t do. Ketchner’s a long-shot to make the club out of camp, but it’s hard not to root for him.
  • Changing uniforms (San Diego Union-Tribune). Was signing Cooper Brannan a publicity stunt? The Padres deny it, although bringing on a combat veteran certainly didn’t hurt the club, which has close ties to the military, in that regard. Besides, it sounds like the kid has a pretty good arm. What’s to lose?

Stuff That Doesn’t Fit Anywhere Else

  • Making a case for the Padres defense (San Diego Union-Tribune). Quoth Paul DePodesta: “The fact that we led the majors in defensive efficiency certainly had something to do with us winning the division.” Quoth me: The fact that DePodesta throws around terms like “defensive efficiency” certainly has something to do with Baseball Prospectus being referenced in the U-T.
  • Ring helps form deceptive duo (Padres.com). This I didn’t know. Apparently Ring is throwing with a sidearm motion these days. He was straight over the top when I saw him at SDSU. Here’s another shocker (to me): “Ring does not throw nearly as hard as Meredith, who reaches 90 mph with his sinking fastball.” Back in the day (all of 5 years ago), Ring threw serious gas; the guy he always drew comparisons to was Randy Myers. Now he’s working in the 80s? Two thoughts:
    1. We’ve got a guy at the end of the bullpen who can tell you a thing or two about working effectively in the 80s.
    2. Who in a Padres uniform would want to draw comparisons to Myers? The guy was a disaster here.

Finally, we’ve got a new poll up over there on the right. Actually, it’s been up a couple days but I forgot to tell you. Yeah, I’m lame — get over it; I have. ;-)

That’s all for now. Game on tonight, 6 p.m. PT, Channel 4. Be there or be elsewhere.