Padres Pitching Projections for 2007, Part 2
Mon, Jan 22, 2007
by Geoff Young
We covered the Padres hitting projections on Friday and Saturday, and started the pitching projections on Sunday. Now we’ll finishing up the pitchers.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.75 |
| Chone | 3.23 |
| Marcel | 4.88 |
| ZiPS | 4.08 |
| Average | 3.99 |
Bell has had some nice peripherals in the minors, which I suspect has something to do with the low ERA projected by Chone. There’s a huge spread from top to bottom, so we’re looking at a bunch of wild guesses. Considering that Bell’s career ERA in the big leagues is 4.92 over 108 innings, I’d take any of these.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.28 |
| Chone | 4.03 |
| Marcel | 3.71 |
| ZiPS | 4.14 |
| Average | 3.79 |
James has Hensley finishing second in the NL in ERA. I’d love for that to happen, but I wouldn’t count on it. The other three all seem reasonable to me and would make me happy.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | |
| Chone | 4.10 |
| Marcel | 4.35 |
| ZiPS | 4.25 |
| Average | 4.23 |
Brown is “the other guy” in the Josh Barfield/Kevin Kouzmanoff deal. None of these projections is spectacular, but everyone seems to think he’s at least a useful guy to have in the ‘pen.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 4.09 |
| Chone | 4.52 |
| Marcel | 4.68 |
| ZiPS | 4.65 |
| Average | 4.49 |
These are not bad projections. James seems a tad optimistic, but basically we’re looking at a decent option for #5 starter. Thompson will serve as good insurance at Triple-A and possibly be a useful trade chip.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | |
| Chone | 4.51 |
| Marcel | 4.50 |
| ZiPS | 4.74 |
| Average | 4.58 |
Stauffer’s numbers look almost identical to those of Thompson.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.98 |
| Chone | 4.54 |
| Marcel | 4.69 |
| ZiPS | 4.76 |
| Average | 4.49 |
This is a little disappointing. None of the systems is able to differentiate between Thompson, Stauffer, and Wells. I guess the value added is in Wells’ track record and reliability. Assuming, of course, he doesn’t get hurt.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 4.86 |
| Chone | |
| Marcel | 5.16 |
| ZiPS | 4.81 |
| Average | 4.94 |
Yuck.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| ERA | |
| Bill James | |
| Chone | 4.98 |
| Marcel | 4.74 |
| ZiPS | 4.98 |
| Average | 4.90 |
It will be interesting to see whether Bud Black shares Bruce Bochy’s obsession with having a left-hander in the bullpen.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | |
| Chone | 4.01 |
| Marcel | 4.22 |
| ZiPS | 5.09 |
| Average | 4.44 |
Your guess is as good as theirs.
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January 22, 2007 at 7:48 am
Does any one know if the padres have posted the Friar Fest player appearance schedule yet?
January 22, 2007 at 8:17 am
There was an ad in the UT yesterday that said Brian Giles, Greg Maddux, and Chris Young were scheduled to be there. It didn’t specify which day however.
January 22, 2007 at 12:18 pm
PECOTA has Wells with a 4.12 ERA (weighted mean).
January 22, 2007 at 12:56 pm
GasLamp guys have this info posted about a Padres event tonight in Temecula … http://images.gaslampball.com/....._greet.jpg … anyone here going?
January 22, 2007 at 1:11 pm
LM: I plan on attending. I’ll pass along any relevant details after the event. There’s another one Thursday night at Granite Hills High School (home of NAG and NOG).
January 22, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Hey Geoff - did you see my comment in Saturday’s blog? Either way, thanks for helping me look good.
January 22, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Any thoughts on Carrillo? Is he close to healthy?
January 22, 2007 at 2:37 pm
Marsh: The Hoffman story? Yes, very cool — I mean to comment earlier but got sidetracked.
Clyde: Sounds like the Padres are optimistic that they’ll be able to avoid surgery for Carrillo:
http://padres.scout.com/2/600649.html
I’ll continue to keep my eyes and ears open…
January 22, 2007 at 3:44 pm
I’m hoping someone out there can answer a question for me. I keep hearing how the DBacks and the Dodgers have the best minor league talent. Did the DBacks get their talent through the draft (i.e. Drew) or did the talent come from earlier trades (i.e. Schillings and Johnson)?
Same thing for the Dodgers? Did they stockpile the young talent strictly on the basis of the draft or did they pick up somebody else’s talent via trade?
I guess what I’m asking is whether the stockpiling of talent by these organizations is dependent upon their own scouting and development or whether it’s from their raiding other’s scouting and development work via trades?
January 22, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Just about all of the top prospects of both those teams have been acquired through the draft. The one notable exception is Arizona’s center fielder of the future, Chris Young, who they got from the White Sox for Javier Vasquez. Other than that, it’s all about the draft.
January 22, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Dodgers & D’Backs have both had some spectacular drafts and D’Backs also had one heck of a trade where they picked up Chris Young (OF). Both teams focus on high-upside high school players. But before you start bashing the Padres non-high school approach they’ve employed, does anyone remember Edwin Jackson? Or how about Gregg Miller? Both were high-upside high school hurlers who have fallen roughly down the prospect lists. Each were top 30 guys (in all of baseball) now Miller is #18 for the Dodgers (after several injuries) and Jackson is AAAA guy for Tampa.
The D’Backs system looks MUCH stronger (and morely to attain it’s glory) than the Dodgers’ system right now.
January 22, 2007 at 8:19 pm
#10 and #11: Thanks, that helps a lot. It struck me that if those two farm systems were built from acquiring minor league players via trade, it made it that much harder for us to build a better farm system, since we don’t have that much with which to barter.
One thing that’s impressed me about our front office is how, over the course of the last two years, the team got significantly younger with Gonzalez, Sledge, Kouzmanoff, Bard and Barfield/NOG replacing Klesko, Doc, Vinny/Bellhorn, Piazza and Loretta. It gives us a chance to develop the players we drafted last year and will draft this year.
If the young guys come through offensively, along the lines of Geoff’s referenced projections, we could be in the thick of it for years to come.
January 22, 2007 at 9:08 pm
This is brilliant! Enjoy!
http://cardboardgods.blogspot......-wynn.html