I normally don’t like to report on stuff that hasn’t quite happened yet, but there isn’t much else going on right now, and these two items are potentially important pieces to the puzzle for 2008 and beyond.
Randy Wolf Signing
First up, the Padres are about to sign left-hander Randy Wolf, who pitched for the Dodgers in 2007 when he wasn’t on the disabled list. Wolf has missed huge chunks of time over each of the past four seasons and is coming off August shoulder surgery, so it’s hard to get a good feel for what he’s capable of these days. That said, he strikes me as a reasonable gamble.
Wolf is only 31 years old and provided decent (97 ERA+) production for the Dodgers over 18 starts in ’07. Yeah, that last part is kind of a problem, and the Padres will need to have a solid #6 starter at the ready (to say nothing of a #5 starter, but that’s a different issue), but with guys like Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse at the top of this winter’s free-agent market, I can live with a base salary of $4 million for 1 year. Incentives could kick it up to $9 million, but presumably if Wolf reaches those incentives, then he’ll have earned his keep (MB at Friar Forecast agrees and provides excellent analysis of the deal).
I was critical of the Dodgers for signing Wolf last year, but my objection was to their giving a guy with his track record $8 million guaranteed. An incentive-based contract makes a lot more sense to me.
It’s the Moneyball philosophy at work. Find soft spots in the market and exploit the bejeezus out of them. From Corey Brock’s article at Padres.com:
San Diego general manager Kevin Towers has said that he prefers some of the pitchers who are coming off surgery — such as Wolf, Matt Clement and Bartolo Colon — to the healthy ones on the free-agent market.
I’m inclined to agree with this assessment. There are so few healthy starting pitchers on the current market that many are likely to command more than they are worth. Let teams that can afford to waste money do so.
My expectations of Wolf are modest. If he can make 20-25 slightly below-league-average starts, I’ll be happy. This is the #4 guy in the rotation, not the staff ace. When available, Wolf has been reasonably effective. Health is the unknown part of the equation, which is why he’s available at such a discount.
Don’t get me wrong, I want to see the Padres bring in the best players possible, but when the market values J.C. Romero at $12 million for 3 years, you’ve got to be a little careful with how you spend. Find bargains to fill little holes, and save your big money for impact players. Say, that reminds me…
Jake Peavy Extension
The second item that hasn’t happened yet but that appears to be near completion is a contract extension for Jake Peavy. According to the U-T’s Tom Krasovic, it’s expected to be a 3-year deal worth $50-54 million guaranteed, plus TBD incentives and no-trade provisions.
I really, really hope this deal gets done. Despite some pipe dreams about Peavy being traded for a bunch of young studs and putting the Padres in position for 2009 (uh, hello, how ’bout 2008?), paying near-top dollar — he’s worth more in the current market — for a homegrown ace who is in his prime seems like a no-brainer to me, especially since it’s only three years.
Yeah, there’s risk, but dude will be 30 years old at the end of the contract. Look, I’m as averse to spending big money as anyone, but if there’s a player worth the risk, I think it’d have to Peavy. How many dominant pitchers in their mid-20s are there, anyway? Not a lot.
On a more general note, when is the last time the Padres had three very good, relatively young players locked up to long-term deals? With Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young already signed, and assuming the Peavy deal is finalized, that’s a nice little nucleus. Sure, maybe you’d like to see some of that spread to positions a little further to the right on the defensive spectrum, but still, it’s a start.
Winter Leagues
I’m way behind in winter-league coverage. We’ll get back to the usual game-by-game stuff on Tuesday, but for now, here are the to-date stats for Padres playing off hither and thither:
Player | Tm | Lg | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics are courtesy of MiLB.com and are through games of December 2, 2007. | ||||||||
Matt Antonelli | PeS | AFL | 56 | .214 | .333 | .268 | 10 | 9 |
Luke Carlin | Est | DWL | 21 | .238 | .333 | .238 | 3 | 4 |
Luis Cruz | Nav | Mex | 163 | .245 | .296 | .399 | 12 | 20 |
Nick Hundley | PeS | AFL | 41 | .244 | .327 | .366 | 6 | 10 |
Jose Lobaton | Car | VWL | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 |
Drew Macias | Car | VWL | 13 | .385 | .500 | .769 | 3 | 3 |
Marshall McDougall | Her | Mex | 166 | .307 | .389 | .530 | 23 | 40 |
Brian Myrow | Maz | Mex | 109 | .312 | .490 | .440 | 35 | 25 |
Oscar Robles | Nav | Mex | 152 | .322 | .418 | .434 | 22 | 13 |
Vince Sinisi | Esc | DWL | 120 | .300 | .390 | .517 | 19 | 18 |
Will Venable | PeS | AFL | 92 | .228 | .268 | .391 | 3 | 21 |
Player | Tm | Lg | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics are courtesy of MiLB.com and are through games of December 2, 2007. | |||||||
Paul Abraham | Car | VWL | 17.1 | 2.60 | 1.33 | 6 | 13 |
Brian Bass | Ara | VWL | 42.2 | 3.38 | 1.01 | 5 | 29 |
Jonathan Ellis | PeS | AFL | 11.1 | 5.56 | 1.50 | 8 | 11 |
John Hudgins | PeS | AFL | 12.1 | 8.76 | 2.03 | 8 | 8 |
Neil Jamison | PeS | AFL | 5.1 | 10.13 | 2.06 | 2 | 5 |
Wil Ledezma | Mar | VWL | 8.2 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 4 | 6 |
Will Startup | PeS | AFL | 12.2 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 2 | 9 |
Steve Watkins | Mxc | Mex | 8.0 | 7.88 | 1.88 | 7 | 9 |
Jared Wells | Mxc | Mex | 15.0 | 6.00 | 1.80 | 7 | 11 |
McDougall signed with the Padres just before Thanksgiving. The soon-to-be 29-year-old infielder is probably best known for once hitting six home runs in a college game.
Bass, a right-hander who turns 26 in January, signed around the same time as McDougall. He also has a nifty 3.17 GB/FB ratio working in Venezuela. [Update, Dec 4, 2007: I don't know my head from my Bass. This guy is in the Minnesota system. The pitcher the Padres signed is Adam Bass. Thanks to Masticore317 for pointing out the error, and sorry for any confusion.]
Abraham may have signed with Seattle, but I can’t find confirmation anywhere.
That’s all for now. Happy Monday…
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