IGD: Padres @ Giants (4 Apr 07)

first pitch: 7:15 p.m. PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (11-5, 3.46 ERA) vs Matt Cain (13-12, 4.15 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com

Not to bring anyone down after that excellent Opening Day shutout, but it was only one game. We’ve got a long way to go, and I, for one, will be loving every minute of it.

The Padres and Giants hook up again tonight in San Francisco. This promises to be one gem of a pitching matchup. Chris Young enjoyed some serious success in his first National League season, finishing sixth in the league in ERA. His 2.41 ERA on the road was best in the NL last year. Young also destroyed left-handed batters to the tune of .176/.259/.309, which is fascinating for a guy who doesn’t change speeds much.

As for Matt Cain, he’s young and he’s real good. His overall numbers as a rookie last year were pretty solid, but he pitched especially well after the All-Star break:

Matt Cain, 2006 Second Half
GS IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 BA OBP SLG
15 99.1 3.26 6.98 0.72 3.62 8.97 .214 .296 .357

That’s sick. Honestly, if there’s one pitcher in the NL West that I think could be another Jake Peavy, Cain is the guy. There aren’t many chinks in his armor. About the only thing I could find is his performance with a runner on first base. In that situation, opponents hit .262/.358/.551 last season. It’s only 130 plate appearances, so who can say if this is legit. Still…

Should be a good one. Go Padres!

Peavy, Padres Roll in Opener

Nice way to start the season, eh? First Opening Day shutout in club history (recap | box score). Sure, that works.

San Diego Padres pitcher Jake PeavyJake Peavy had a strong outing, spinning six scoreless innings against the Giants at PhoneCo. One of the things we’ve harped on here in the past is the need for Peavy to pitch with greater efficiency. Last season, only four NL moundsmen used more pitches per plate appearance than Peavy’s 3.97. Anecdotally, it seemed that he had trouble putting batters away once he got ahead in the count.

Tuesday night’s outing was a mixed bag in terms of efficiency. The negative is that Peavy needed 98 pitches to get through 6 innings — not horrible, but not great. He faced 23 batters in the game, which works out to 4.26 P/PA.

With a few notable exceptions, though, Peavy did a fairly good job of finishing off hitters once he got ahead. He threw 27 two-strike pitches on Tuesday, and they break down as follows:

  • ball: 9
  • foul ball: 5
  • ground ball: 5
  • called strike: 3
  • swinging strike: 3
  • fly out: 2

Of the five ground balls, two resulted in singles. In the first inning, Peavy induced Barry Bonds to take a very awkward swing on a 3-2 slider; thanks to an exaggerated defensive shift, the ball trickled through the left side of the infield for a base hit. Then in the third, Dave Roberts nubbed a 2-2 slider up the first base line that Peavy kicked; it was a tough play and correctly ruled a hit.

The troublesome at-bats came against Bonds in the first (three balls after getting ahead, 0-2), Pedro Feliz in the second (two balls and two fouls after getting ahead, 1-2), and Rich Aurilia in the sixth (three balls and a foul after getting ahead, 0-2). I understand working carefully to Bonds, but with the kind of stuff Peavy has, you’d like to see him be a little more aggressive with Feliz and Aurilia. The two balls to Feliz just missed outside, but still, there’s never a reason to throw that guy eight pitches.

Anyway, we’re nitpicking. Peavy looked real good. The Giants mounted only two semi-serious threats all night. In the first inning, after Bonds singled to left, he caught the Padres napping and stole second. Then Ray Durham hit a routine grounder to Khalil Greene that should have ended the inning. Greene threw low and miracle worker Adrian Gonzalez couldn’t come up with the ball. Bonds, perhaps feeling a little extra adrenaline surge from the stolen base, tried to score standing up but was thrown out with ease.

The one other chance for San Francisco came in the seventh. Cla Meredith allowed a leadoff single to Bengie Molina. The next batter, Feliz, worked the count full before flailing at a pitch that was at least a foot outside. Randy Winn followed with a single before Ryan Klesko rapped into a first-pitch 4-6-3 double play to end the threat. If Feliz takes the 3-2 pitch, this inning gets real interesting.

San Diego Padres catcher Josh BardOn the offensive side, Brian Giles, Gonzalez, Josh Bard, Greene, and Jose Cruz Jr. all looked good. Giles and Gonzalez both stayed in nicely against tough left-handers, and both were robbed of base hits by Ray Durham, who made two terrific diving stops to his left.

Bard was a monster, collecting four hits in his final four at-bats. He got in some good swings from both sides of the plate and even had a nice six-pitch at-bat the one time he didn’t get a hit.

Greene drove in the Padres’ fifth run with a sharp single to left in the eighth. Before that, in the second, he took Roberts to the center field wall on a 1-1 curve from Zito.

Cruz did a great job at the plate and in the field. He drew a bases-loaded walk in the fourth that helped push Zito toward the end of his line. Later, batting left-handed, Cruz crushed an 0-2 offering from reliever Kevin Correia that hit the base of the wall in deepest center field. I’m pretty sure that one is a homer at Petco Park.

Speaking of Zito, the $126 million man cruised through the first three innings, using just 32 pitches. Then his command and defense deserted him, and he needed 37 pitches to get through the fourth. That inning, after Cameron walked and Bard singled, Greene reached on an error by Feliz, and Kevin Kouzmanoff “singled” to left on a soft liner that dropped in front of Bonds. Before long, the Padres had extended their lead to 3-0.

I almost feel for Bruce Bochy. Almost. It was his choice to move north, and now there he is. Still, the guy has a third baseman that can’t hit or field, possibly the worst defensive outfield in baseball, and a suspect bullpen. It’s only one game, but I can’t stop wondering how long it is before Giants fans grow accustomed to seeing Bochy remove his cap and run his fingers through his hair.

Like I said, almost. They are the enemy, yo.

Great start to the season. Awesome to see Bud Black get that first victory out of the way. If his team can swing about 90 more of those over the next six months, we’ll be in good shape.

Here’s hoping…

IGD: Padres @ Giants (3 Apr 07)

first pitch: 1:35 p.m. PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (11-14, 4.09 ERA) vs Barry Zito (16-10, 3.83 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com

Padres lineup:

  1. Marcus Giles, 2B
  2. Brian Giles, RF
  3. Mike Cameron, CF
  4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
  5. Josh Bard, C
  6. Khalil Greene, SS
  7. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B
  8. Jose Cruz Jr., LF
  9. Jake Peavy, P

Giants lineup:

  1. Dave Roberts, CF
  2. Omar Vizquel, SS
  3. Barry Bonds, LF
  4. Ray Durham, 2B
  5. Rich Aurilia, 1B
  6. Pedro Feliz, 3B
  7. Benji Molina, C
  8. Randy Winn, RF
  9. Barry Zito, P

Opening Day is finally here. Sorry, I’m too busy savoring the moment to offer actual analysis. Talk it up, y’all; these games count. Play ball!

It’s Opening Day, Baby!

I really wanted to prepare a cool little preview of the opening series, but I’m too excited to think straight. The Padres kick off their NL West title defense this afternoon in San Francisco against former manager Bruce Bochy (who still got front-page billing in the U-T on a day when the big news item was Adrian Gonzalez‘ contract extension) and the Giants. The game starts at 1:35 p.m., PT; we’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before then.

Meanwhile, congratulations to reader Jay Mars, who has won our Guess the Padres’ 2007 Opening Day Roster contest. Jay correctly picked 23 of the 25 guys on the Opening Day roster (full results available as spreadsheet) and for his efforts gets a Ducksnorts T-shirt of his choosing. Jay, let me know what you want and where it’s going, and I’ll send that out to you right away. Thanks to everyone for participating; we’ll try to get more contests going this season — any suggestions are welcome.

Finally, thanks to Dex at Gaslamp Ball for tipping us off to Ballhype. From the site: “Ballhype tracks more than 1,600 sports blogs to find great content so you don’t have to. Hype up the best stories, submit new links, or write your own posts, and let the fans decide.” C’mon over, join the Padres Nation group, make me your friend, hype Ducksnorts. Give some love to all the excellent local blogs. It’ll be great.

Okay, that’s all for now. IGD at 12:30 p.m. PT. Be here…

Padres Ink Gonzalez to Long-Term Deal

San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian GonzalezAs noted in the comments yesterday, the Padres have locked up first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to a 4-year deal worth $9.5 million with an option for 2011 that could kick the total value up to $15 million. Among other things, this means we can quit wringing our hands over a perceived lack of respect by the Pads when they renewed Gonzalez’ contract, as teams will do with players under club control.

I find this quote from Gonzalez’ agent, John Boggs, fascinating:

It was after the renewal that Kevin Towers asked if we were interested in a multiyear deal. If we could get something done for fair market value, we were interested.

Neither side got exactly what it wanted, but it’s a good deal for both sides.

First, it sound like Towers came to the player, which is great. Second, I like the acknowledgment that both sides had to give a little to get something mutually beneficial done.

Anyway, this is fantastic news for Gonzalez, the Padres, and fans. Gonzalez blossomed in his first full big-league season and is a guy around whom the Padres can build.

Last April we compared Gonzalez to Arizona’s Chad Tracy. This year, with a little more data to work with, Gonzalez’ list of 10 most similar players at Baseball-Reference contains some intriguing names.

The most obvious of these is Wally Joyner because he was a slick-fielding first baseman. But Joyner didn’t have quite as many at-bats through age 24; he also had more power and better plate discipline.

The guy I like on this list is Milwaukee’s Geoff Jenkins. Here’s how Gonzalez and Jenkins stack up at the same age:

Adrian Gonzalez vs Geoff Jenkins, through Age 24
  PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ BB/SO ISO XB/H AB/HR
Gonzalez 836 .285 .340 .475 112 .410 .190 .373 24.58
Jenkins 775 .282 .341 .498 114 .372 .216 .445 23.63
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Baseball Musings Day by Day Database.

With the seemingly obvious disclaimer that no two players are the same, Gonzalez and Jenkins look like a pretty decent match. Jenkins had a little more power, Gonzalez controls the strike zone a little better.

Jenkins, FWIW, enjoyed a pretty nice run throughout his age 25-29 seasons, batting .282/.352/.524 over that stretch. He maintained his batting average while improving his OBP and SLG. If Gonzalez progresses in a similar manner, I imagine most of us will be happy.

Welcome, and Some Reminders

The regular season returns tonight. Cardinals and Mets, 5 p.m. PT, for those interested.

Meanwhile, Ducksnorts has been getting some great MSM exposure lately — we’re mentioned on page 137 of the March 26, 2007, issue of Sports Illustrated and we’re also reviewed by Marc Figueroa in this morning’s North County Times. With Opening Day upon us, now seems as good a time as any to say welcome to new readers (and welcome back to everyone else). If you’re new to Ducksnorts, or even if you’re not, here are a few things you should know:

  • I write the articles, but one voice gets boring real quick. What really makes us tick is the discussion. I’m constantly blown away by the quality of comments from readers. It’s what keeps me coming back for more. So if you’d like to participate, check out our Comments Policy and then join us. Or if you’d prefer, feel free to shoot me an email. Any and all comments are welcome provided they demonstrate at least some level of thought. If the best you can throw down is, “Brian Giles is teh suck,” please take that somewhere else. (“Brian Giles is teh suck because he no longer hits for as much power as he once did,” OTOH, is acceptable. Just back up what you’re saying.)
  • I’ve recently self-published a book called the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual. Buy it; I promise it’s not teh suck.
  • We have a boatload of caps, T-shirts, etc at the Ducksnorts Online Store. I’m told that these come in handy at games when searching for fellow Ducksnorters. If you don’t see what you want, drop me a line; I used to play in cover bands, so I’m pretty good with requests.
  • Finally, this is what I do for a living. There’s never an obligation to pay for anything here. I’ve thought about a subscription-based model, but every time I do that, I reach the same conclusion: I really don’t want to go there. That said, if you’d like to help support Ducksnorts, please feel free using the little PayPal button over on the right. If you’re not hooked up with PayPal and would like to contribute, drop me a line. Same goes if you’d like to make a non-financial donation (reader Eric contributed the excellent header you now see). And to everyone who has helped keep Ducksnorts running, I offer my sincere and humble thanks. You guys rock.

Hang out, read stuff, chat with friends. That’s pretty much what we do around here. Play ball!

Friday Links (30 Mar 07)

Are we there yet? Almost…

  • Clubhouse chemistry winning formula? (San Diego Union-Tribune). More Brian Giles wackiness. I never get tired of grown men telling stupid kids jokes.
  • 2007 San Diego Padres Season Preview (Baseball Savant). He likes what he sees and predicts 89 wins and another NL West title for the Friars.
  • ‘Healthy’ Peavy eager for Opening Day start (San Diego Union-Tribune). Quoth Jake Peavy: “I feel as healthy as I ever have entering a season.” A city keeps its collective fingers crossed.
  • Aging Maddux still a pretty pitcher (Dallas Morning News, via Nick G. in the comments). Writer Kevin Sherrington asks some interesting rhetorical questions:

    How many pitchers watch other teams take batting practice, looking for weaknesses?

    How many guys shout an expletive when the count goes 2-1 in a meaningless spring training game?

    I also like the fact that Greg Maddux sticks up for his former teammate, Kevin Millwood. That doesn’t mean a thing in any box score, but it’s a classy move.

  • Thompson, McAnulty, Kevin Cameron appear set (San Diego Union-Tribune). You cannot stop P-Mac; you can only hope to contain him. Seriously, this is great news for Paul McAnulty if it happens.
  • Padres building strong foundation (Minor League Baseball). Grady Fuson on right-hander Cesar Carrillo:

    We have a rotation in the big leagues that’s a solid five. So from a health standpoint, let’s hope we don’t need him [Carrillo] in ’07. It will do him good to break camp and get six or seven starts in Triple-A…to make sure he rebounds well, that his sides are crisp and there are no lingering effects. We want to take away the rush and move slowly. If we err, we want it to be on the side of caution, and hopefully we can have this guy back in the mix by midseason.

  • Savvy, big hitters to surround Bush at Elsinore (San Diego Union-Tribune). The Padres aren’t giving up on Matt Bush just yet. Also, it looks like last year’s first-round pick, Matt Antonelli, is shifting from third to second base sooner rather than later. Let’s hope it works out better than Jake Gautreau’s move did a few years ago.
  • Velocity helps, but location is important, too (ESPN, via Didi in the comments). Jerry Crasnick’s article is about New York Mets closer Billy Wagner, who pays Trevor Hoffman a fine compliment:

    …the guy I follow as a role model is Trevor Hoffman, because he’s a true pitcher. He goes out there and gets a lot of swings and misses on his changeup. He gets a lot of quick outs and he’s quick with his job.

  • 2007 THT Staff Predictions (Hardball Times). I must be mellowing in my old age. The only places where I’m contrarian are in my picks for AL Central title (Tigers), AL (Joe Mauer) and NL (Miguel Cabrera) MVP awards, and World Series champ (Angels). Yes, I picked the Padres to finish second in the NL West. The division is going to be unbelievably tight this year. In my Baseball Think Factory piece, which should be appearing shortly, I’ve pegged the Padres at 85 wins. What do I know? I’m just making a quasi-educated guess.

More links throughout the day, week, etc. at del.icio.us. Hang tight, folks; this is our final weekend without real baseball games for a very long time. :-)

Weekend in Peoria: Everything but the Games

Inspired by a question from reader LynchMob, I thought we’d try something a little different today. It occurs to me that not everyone has been to spring training, nor do they necessarily know why they should go. If you think it’s just about driving to the desert to watch baseball games, then you’re missing something important.

Aside from the very cool aspect of hanging out with friends old and new (I’ve actually gotten reports of fellow Ducksnorters hooking up because someone was wearing a Ducksnorts T-shirt), you also can visit the minor-league facilities and interact with players in a way that simply isn’t possible in any other environment. In that vein, here’s a little of what reader Didi and I did/saw before the games this weekend.

Saturday: Padres @ Brewers, Maryvale

We arrived at Maryvale Baseball Park around 10:30 a.m. for a 1 p.m. start. The stadium itself hadn’t opened yet, but several practice fields were accessible. The first we visited featured minor leaguers taking batting practice. Maybe a dozen or so kids had stationed themselves beyond the outfield fence, waiting to catch or chase down home run balls for souvenirs.

Any time a drive looked like it would clear the fence, one of the pitchers shagging flies in the outfield yelled “heads-up” (particularly helpful for those of us snapping photos and not paying attention to flying objects). The kids then scrambled to retrieve their gift from the sky.

One of the pitchers shagging flies was ex-Padre Chris Oxspring. I have very fond memories of Oxspring from his time with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in ’02. When my wife and I visit the Diamond in Elsinore, we tend to sit directly behind home plate, with the scouts and, often, pitchers who are charting the game. We ran into Oxspring one time there and didn’t really talk to him (he had a job to do), but a couple of young kids did and we were impressed with the way Oxspring handled himself. He charted his pitches, and he also made sure to give his time — cheerfully — to these kids. This is one reason I’ve always wanted to see Oxspring succeed at the big-league level.

Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chris Oxspring

Anyway, if you don’t know about Oxspring, he’s from Australia and he made a handful of appearances with the Padres in 2005 before heading to Japan. Now he’s back and in the Brewers’ camp. We spotted him shagging flies, and Didi said hello and that we remembered him from his days with the Storm. Oxspring seemed pleased that we knew who he was. He asked how long we were in town, how long the drive was from San Diego, if we were enjoying ourselves — small-talk, really, but nothing he’d been required to say. We wished him good luck with the Brewers and went on our way.

From there, we wandered over to one of the other practice fields with more minor leaguers. This group was mostly standing around the diamond. Some were tossing a football, pretending to catch the ball on the sidelines, using the cut of the infield grass as the boundary. Others were talking about their NCAA brackets. Then the real fun began: dizzy bat races.

The idea is the same as the races you’ll see at a minor-league game: you stand a baseball bat upright on the ground, place your forehead on the bat, circle it 10 times, and then start running. Usually you’ll see two guys competing against each other, but these were timed individual races from home plate to first base. We watched a dozen or more guys “run” (the best part is when the spectators scatter); after much stumbling and laughing, a champion was crowned and everyone packed up to prepare for the impending game.

By this time, the stadium gates had opened so we headed to the main entrance. On our way, we stopped by a couple of batting cages. One player stood in each, whacking baseballs off a tee. They looked a little uncomfortable taking hacks off a tee out in the open like that, and I can’t say that I blame them. I’ve talked about this before, but it’s one thing to give a performance and another entirely to have people watch you get ready to perform.

But what are you going to do.

Sunday: Padres vs Giants, Peoria

Our first trip to the Peoria Sports Complex resulted in a lot of walking. If you’ve never been there before, understand that the Padres share the facility with the “rival” Seattle Mariners. Understand also that in addition to the actual stadium, there are 12 practice fields and that the Pads and M’s operate on opposite sides of the complex. So if you park on the Seattle side, as we did, you’re in for a bit of a haul.

After we parked the car, a shuttle (actually a golf cart) picked us up and took us over to the practice fields. The driver pointed out a few things to us and then let us loose to explore for ourselves. We had no interest in watching Mariners minor leaguers, but this is where we were and baseball is baseball, so we found a practice field and hung out for a bit.

We watched pitchers we’d never heard of field bunts and throw to first base. There were maybe a dozen or so guys out by the mound. The guy in front would simulate a pitch, and a coach standing at home plate would toss a ball roughly in his direction. The pitcher would pounce on the ball and throw to first — inside the baseline or outside depending on the first baseman’s call (we never heard a call of “outside” and frankly, I’m not sure why a pitcher in fair territory would ever throw to the outside).

The difference in skill levels for this drill was amazing. One or two guys consistently jumped off the mound, grabbed the ball cleanly, and made a good throw to first. One or two more could make the play but then maybe put a little too much mustard on the throw. And one poor kid could be counted on to kick the ball or just plain miss it no matter what. He looked like a good enough athlete (I’m one to talk!), but for whatever reason, he couldn’t make the play.

After about 10 minutes of this, we decided to try and find the Padres players. We took several wrong turns but eventually headed in the right direction. By the time we arrived at the San Diego side of the complex, it was maybe a little after 11 a.m. Guys were just finishing up batting practice. We saw Cla Meredith shag some flies and that’s about it.

While the big leaguers were wrapping up batting practice, the minor leaguers in the outermost fields started packing their gear and heading toward the locker room. To get to the locker room, they literally had to walk through hundreds of fans. Among many other less recognizable players, we saw Matt Bush, Jose Oyervidez, and Will Venable make several stops to sign autographs and chat with fans. This was probably the single most mind-blowing scene for me over the weekend: dozens of players in full uniform, having just completed their morning workout, mingling with fans.

San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable

After most of the players had gone, we ambled over toward the stadium, which had now opened. On our way, we passed the players’ parking lot. We saw the expected BMWs and Mercedes, some with recognizable personalized plates, but there were plenty of “everyday people” cars in there as well — a potent reminder that most of the guys in camp aren’t drawing a big-league paycheck.

We ran into a couple more Ducksnorts readers and stopped by the store to look at merchandise before entering the stadium to watch the game. And, well, you know what happens at a game so we’ll end it here.

So. That’s why you go to spring training.

Oh So Quiet

Welcome to the calm before the storm. Not much going on right now, but the Opening Day roster is starting to take shape.

Right-hander Scott Strickland will be waived today, leaving righties Kevin Cameron and Mike Thompson as the leading candidates for the final two bullpen spots. Kevin Towers and Bud Black both think highly of Cameron and like his ability to get lefties out. Cameron got smacked around when I saw him, but my sample of one game is essentially meaningless. I’ll defer to the experts here.

Meanwhile, nobody is saying who will take the last bench spot now that Todd Walker is gone. I know we all want to see Paul McAnulty get a shot, but with Russell Branyan on the roster, that seems redundant. Oscar Robles, who can legitimately play anywhere on the infield, probably is a better fit — at least to start the season.

A quick check of our Opening Day Roster contest grid reveals that nobody picked both Cameron and Thompson to make the club. Robles? He wasn’t even in the organization. As for the consensus, it looks like we nailed 22 of the 25 spots. Hey, 88% ain’t too shabby.

In other news, I’m very flattered by Billfer’s review of the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual and Q&A with me over at BaseBlogging. I continue to be amazed by the support this book is getting from the community. As always, thank you for spreading the word.

That’s all for now. Time to crank out my annual preview for Baseball Think Factory. Wish me luck…

Padres Set to Release Walker

Veteran second baseman Todd Walker will be released today by the Padres. Walker won an arbitration hearing in February that set his 2007 salary at $3.95 million. By releasing him now, the Padres owe him just $987,000. GM Kevin Towers, however, claims that Walker’s salary “didn’t factor into the decision.”

Should we take Towers at his word? Setting aside money for a moment, let’s take a look at the baseball side of this equation. Walker essentially could have filled one of three roles for the Padres this season:

  • Starting second baseman
  • Utility player
  • Left-handed pinch-hitter

We’ll examine each of these possibilities:

Starting Second Baseman

Walker was penciled in as San Diego’s starting second baseman until Marcus Giles fell into the Padres’ lap last December. This is similar to when Mike Piazza joined the ballclub late in spring 2006 and pushed Doug Mirabelli into a backup role. Obviously Walker is a much better player than Mirabelli, but the point is, there’s that same dynamic of a guy coming in unexpectedly and gumming up the works.

On offense, Giles is projected to hit somewhere in the 742-787 OPS range, while Walker is pegged at 704-787. Even if we call this a wash (Walker’s floor is lower, and he’s more likely to be in the midst of his decline years, but let’s give him the benefit of the doubt here), Giles’ glove should give him the edge.

Acknowledging that range factor is not the perfect defensive metric, here’s how the two stack up in recent years:

Giles vs Walker, Range Factor 2004 – 2006
  2004 2005 2006
Giles 5.42 5.18 4.91
Walker 4.36 4.59 4.35

Yes, that’s a nasty downward trend for Giles (although injuries may have played a role — part of the risk in signing Giles in the first place), but he still reaches a lot more balls than Walker.

So basically Giles is 5 years younger than Walker, a superior defender, and at least as good on offense. He also, for those who take stock in such things, is having a much better spring. In other words, Giles is better qualified for the job in every way.

Utility Player

A utility player should be able to perform a wide variety of tasks reasonably well. He doesn’t have to be as good as the regulars he occasionally is called on to replace, but he shouldn’t put his team at a huge disadvantage when forced to take the field.

In a perfect world, your utility guy can play seven positions. If his bat is especially potent, four might suffice. How does Walker measure up here? Let’s look at his career innings by position:

2B: 8272
3B: 606.2
1B: 376.2
SS: 4
LF: 2

Almost all of Walker’s experience (89% of innings) is at second base. Runner up is third base, but that accounts for just 6.6% of Walker’s career innings, and he demonstrated convincingly last year that he cannot play the position.

First base? Most of his time there came last year with the Cubs while Derrek Lee was on the shelf, but he seemed to do okay. Maybe Walker could spell Adrian Gonzalez against tough lefties:

Gonzalez and Walker vs LHP 2004 – 2006
  BA OBP SLG
Gonzalez .312 .345 .489
Walker .271 .367 .417

Or maybe not.

In Walker, we have a “utility player” who can play two positions. I’m not sure how useful that is. Much as I hate to say anything overly positive about Geoff Blum, he is a better option. So is Oscar Robles.

Left-Handed Pinch-Hitter

This probably was Walker’s best fit on the current Padres. The main problem there is that he hasn’t fared well as a pinch-hitter (.241/.283/.315 in 54 AB) over the past three seasons. It’s not much of a sample, and I imagine Walker probably could transform himself into a Mark Sweeney type.

Is there anyone else on the roster that could fill the role of left-handed bat off the bench? Off the top of my head, I count Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, and Paul McAnulty. None of these guys is accomplished in that role, but all three have more offensive upside than Walker.

In other words, Walker is a decent option, but probably not the best available to the Padres.

Back to the Money

Here’s where things get interesting. The Padres potentially save $3 million by releasing Walker. The players’ union is expected to file a grievance claiming that this move was financially driven rather than performance driven. It’s a union’s job to protect its people, so I’ve got no real problem with that.

What I find fascinating is the fact that the Padres are willing to take the risk that they’ll end up having to pay Walker big bucks to take his services elsewhere. Yes, the Pads could save money on the deal, but we know the MLBPA is one of the strongest labor unions in the world, so there’s also a pretty decent chance that the cost will be the same either way.

I don’t know enough about how the arbitration process works to say whether the union’s grievance has teeth. That said, I can’t imagine the union making a stink if it thought there was no chance of victory.

From where I sit, the Padres essentially are saying that, for reasons outlined above, they can’t use Walker. Given that fact, they’re releasing him now rather than later to avoid paying him for services they’ve already determined they don’t need.

At the same time, I’m sure the Padres recognize that they may be forced to pay Walker anyway. It’s a lousy situation for both sides (and I know I’ve only presented management’s side — Walker is a decent second baseman in a market where there just isn’t much demand for his skill set), but would anyone rather the Padres keep a guy around just because they’re paying him? We’ve seen that before, and it’s not much fun.

If the union files a grievance and wins, I expect some folks will have a good laugh at the Padres’ expense, claiming that they got slapped down for trying to be cheap. I won’t be one of them. To me, this is a team making the best baseball decision regardless of potential consequences.

The situation stinks for Walker, who is no longer the best man for the job he was signed to perform. It stinks for the Padres, who have reminded us why they typically don’t go to arbitration with their players.

In the end, the club has to defend its NL West title and field the best possible 25-man roster, which doesn’t include Walker. If the union can get money for their guy in the process, so be it. If the Padres can avoid paying that money, so be it. Either way, let’s hope for a quick resolution so this doesn’t take focus away from trying to win games once the bell rings.