Padres’ 2007 Opening Day Roster: Our Best Guesses

We had 21 entrants in our little contest. Here is the consensus:

SP: Clay Hensley (21), Greg Maddux (21), Jake Peavy (21), David Wells (21), Chris Young (21)

RP: Heath Bell (11), Doug Brocail (13), Trevor Hoffman (21), Scott Linebrink (20), Cla Meredith (21), Royce Ring (19), Scott Strickland (13)

C: Josh Bard (21), Rob Bowen (17)

INF: Geoff Blum (21), Russell Branyan (21), Marcus Giles (21), Adrian Gonzalez (21), Khalil Greene (21), Kevin Kouzmanoff (21), Todd Walker (19)

OF: Mike Cameron (21), Jose Cruz Jr. (19), Brian Giles (21), Terrmel Sledge (20)

Numbers in parentheses represent how many entrants had player on their opening day roster. Most of the questions are in the bullpen, which should come as no surprise. We also expect Marcus Giles to score the Padres’ first run of the season.

Good luck, everyone!

4 Responses »

  1. I haven’t checked out Sickles’ web site in a while … found a Kevin Kouzmanoff Community Projection there …

    … result =

    130 games, 453 at-bats, 127 hits, .280, 27 doubles, 1 triples, 15 homers, 63 RBI, 39 walks, 82 strikeouts, 2 steals.

    … tasty!

  2. Interesting comparison of Schilling and Smoltz. Frankly, I don’t know the answer to the question yet. I really think you could flip a coin and not make a bad decision. I’d also like to see Kevin Brown thrown up against them in the same comparison.

    Ah, what the heck.

    Pitcher W L SV ERA ERA+ IP BB K WHIP
    Schilling 207 138 22 3.44 127 3110.0 688 3015 1.13
    Smoltz 193 137 154 3.27 126 3161.1 937 2778 1.17
    Brown 211 144 0 3.28 127 3256.3 907 2397 1.22

    Hardware: 6 AS, 1998 TSN Pitcher of the Year, 1 WS Ring.

    Black Ink: 19, Gray Ink: 166, HOF Standards: 41, HOF Monitor: 93.

    Post Season Line:
    5-5, 4.19 ERA in 81.7 IP, 8.37 H/9, 3.41 BB/9, 7.82 K/9, 2.29 K/BB

    Stellar in 3 LDS, very poor in 3 LCS and 2 WS, although the LCS numbers are somewhat distorted by his 2004 LCS where I believe he was pitching injured.

    Judging by this I think it’s easy to say Brown is a tick behind the other two; however, I think when you look at more sabre inclined numbers he pulls quite a bit closer. For example, he is far ahead on ERA+ (the below is seasons of 200 or more IP and at least 100 ERA+).

    Brown: 214, 169, 167, 160, 150, 148, 116, 114.
    Schilling:154, 150, 150, 143, 136, 134, 124, 116, 100.
    Smoltz: 149, 144, 139, 128, 126, 124, 112, 104, 103.

    They each had about 3 or 4 seasons where they pitched well in terms of ERA+ and had around 170 to 190 IP. Smoltz also had one exceptional ERA+ season as a closer but in only 64.3 IP.

    Brown has 241 Career WS per Hardball Times, Schilling 244, and Smoltz 269.

    WARP loves Brown who has the highest season of the three, an 11.1 in 1996 (the year he lost the CY to Smoltz). His second best is a 10.5, which is higher than Schilling’s best of 10.2 and nearly as good as Smoltz’s best of 10.9. He also blows Smoltz away in other peak seasons with 8.6, 8.5, 8.5, 8.3, 8.0 to 8.6, 8.5, 7.7, 7.4, 7.3. Schilling does better with 9.8, 9.7, 9.6, 9.4, 7.8, but don’t forget Brown has two other seasons which are higher than Schilling’s best year.

    PRAA shows the differnece between Brown and the other two though with Brown only coming up to 258 while the other two both have exactly 311. They have been a bit more durable, which is important.

    Still, Brown is not all that far behind, and by JAWS he is just a tick ahead of Schilling and just a tick behind Smoltz. Even if it were just the three of them in the conversation though, (no Rocket, Mad Dog, Pedro, Big Unit, and Glavine) with Brown’s infamous personality and very public breakdown in 2004, plus his injury plauged decline phase, he would miss out on the HOF voting, imo, and perhaps justifialby as he may be a borderline candidate for small Hall guys. But with all those other names in the hunt, he won’t stand a chance.

  3. Sorry I did not play along on the line up game, but I think the winner will come down to who wins the back end of the bench and the back end of the bullpen, neither are areas where I feel especially passionate or knowledgeable about.

    I know it is longer time burning, but how about a forecasting game? There is a lot to choose from, but could have VORP by players, Wins, ERA, OPS, HR’s, NL West record, etc.

    For any player level projections, PECOTA is the baseline I would use. I have it if others want to play along but don’t have the data.

  4. jay – what are you proposing … something where we’d pick which players we think would perform over PECOTA and which below PECOTA? … and by how much? That sounds interesting … I’ll bet most folks will be over-optimisitic :-) ie. they will think PECOTA is too pessimisitic … a game like (I think) you are proposing would help us follow that … I’m in!