by Geoff Young on Mar 04, 2010
THT Forecasts have arrived. The marketing points:
- Oliver projections for the next six years for over 7,000 major and minor league players. These projections include hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics (the latter based on Brian Cartwright’s own play-by-play system), wins above replacement (WAR) projections, and coming soon, base running as well. You can read more about Oliver here.
- Raw statistics for the past three years, including all the statistical categories listed above.
- Major league equivalencies (MLEs) for the past three seasons, so you can see not just a player’s raw past statistics, but also how his numbers look adjusted for context.
- Depth chart projections to tell you just how much of an impact a player will make at the major league level this season.
- Over 1,300 player comments (and counting) from the best team bloggers on the internet, to give you a more subjective look at just about every player that matters.
- And all of the above, updated each and every week, from now until October.
- Plus, many more features, such as projected standings and personal player watch lists, with more to come very soon.
I wrote the Padres comments. I don’t know if that qualifies as a marketing point, but there it is.
Cost to you for all this? $14.95. That’s a lot less than a Toyota, and safer, too!
by Geoff Young on Mar 02, 2010
I’m reading a lot about Adrian Gonzalez these days. Why not? He’s a great player who deserves the coverage.
The two basic “stories” right now are:
To summarize, other teams want Gonzalez, who probably won’t remain in San Diego much longer. How novel. Why weren’t we advised of this earlier? The people have a right to know when nothing has happened.
by Geoff Young on Mar 01, 2010
As threatened in our look at Padres hitting prospects worth watching in 2010, we turn now to pitchers. Here, again in alphabetical order, are 15 pitchers I’ll be keeping my eye on this year:
Continue reading ›
by Geoff Young on Feb 28, 2010
Does anyone even remember Aldo Nova these days? Anyway, my latest look at the BP Kings draft is up at Baseball Prospectus. My first pick? Kyle Blanks, believe.
by Geoff Young on Feb 27, 2010
It’s time once again to assemble our Ducksnorts community IVIE projections. For the curious, IVIE stands for Insipid Value Indication Estimator and, in the grand tradition of assigning cutesy acronyms to projection systems, is named in honor of former Padres first-round pick Mike Ivie.
In the past, we’ve solicited guesses in the comments, but this year we’re using SurveyMonkey to collect data. You don’t need to sign up for anything, just head on over and give it your best guess:
We’ll leave this open for a couple of weeks. Then I’ll compile all the numbers and present the final 2010 IVIE projections. A splendid time is guaranteed for all.
by Geoff Young on Feb 26, 2010
Oy, what happened to the week? I want a do-over. Anyway, here are your links:
- Stairs happy to fill niche for Padres (U-T). From Bill Center’s article: “With his phone not ringing with offers, Stairs signed on with NutriSystem and started trimming 32 pounds. He began playing hockey, became an assistant hockey coach at John Bast Memorial High in Bangor, Maine, coached his daughter’s softball team and accepted an offer to be the hitting coach for the University of Maine baseball team.” So now basketball (Will Venable and Chris Young) and hockey are represented. How about football? Badminton? Lawn darts?
- Percentage of Team Payroll Lost to Time on DL (Beyond the Boxscore). Jeff Zimmerman does some interesting work using Josh Hermsmeyer’s injury database. If Hermsmeyer’s database is accurate (I don’t know), this doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the Padres. [h/t reader Didi]
- Minor league run environments (Hardball Times). Justin Inaz reminds us that context is everything. This is why I include those “League in a Box” tables in the Annuals.
- The Complete Top 100 Prospects List (Baseball America). Four Padres make the list, which is more than usual: Donavan Tate (#53), Simon Castro (#57), Jaff Decker (#82), and James Darnell (#90). Also, there’s a fun discussion at Hardball Times that reminds me why I don’t take these lists too seriously; with all due respect to BA, which does fantastic work, I’m with Studes, who says in the thread: “I don’t see lists like this as a science, just a survey of how people are feeling about each prospect at a certain point in time.”
- Latos adjusts in quest for rotation spot (Padres.com). Pitching coach Darren Balsley on his young right-hander: “When you ask Mat to do something, he will do it. The most impressive thing to me was yesterday when we were in the bullpen, the two things I asked him to do in the offseason, he did it. He came in with a definite purpose this year and that’s to make the Major League staff instead of just showing up for the experience. He already went through that once. Now he’s trying to make the club.” And this, my friends, is why nobody is handing Latos a job. Talent is good. Talent + hunger is better.
- Parity (or lack there of) and the best and worst of the last 1.5 decade (PAAPFLY). From the article: “If money meant everything and every team who spent the most always had the most wins, you would expect that every single team would fall in line with their average payroll and average number of wins. Of course, we know that’s simply not true.” According to the methods employed here, the usual suspects look good (A’s, Indians, Twins) and bad (Orioles, Mariners). The Padres show up on the positive side as well, which isn’t surprising to those who have followed the club over the past several years. [h/t BBTF]
- San Diego Padres: Top 10 Prospects (Fangraphs). Marc Hulet gives his list. I like Darnell better than Forsythe, and I like Decker better than both. I’m not excited by Hulet’s 7-8-9 of Luebke, Poreda, Zawadzki. More intriguing prospects in the system didn’t make the cut. Have I mentioned lately that I hate prospect lists?
- Remember the former Padres Mascot “Bluepper”? (Gaslamp Ball). I certainly do. He came and went just as I was beginning my conversion from Dodger Blue to Padre, well, I guess Blue.
- The Good Shapers (Fangraphs). Dave Cameron lists some players who reportedly have reported to camp in the “best shape of their life.” Stairs and Kyle Blanks show up here, as does ex-Padre Oliver Perez.
- Matt Antonelli moving up, at least in one sense (Sacrifice Bunt). Melvin likes the way Antonelli is interacting with fans, doing the blog thing and what-not.
- Top prospect Antonelli seeks fresh start (Padres.com). Speaking of Antonelli, he’s well aware of his situation: “Last year, I played in 50 games and was hurt. The year before that, I didn’t play well. You cannot play the way I have played forever or you won’t be playing baseball. I know that.”
- Rangers release shortstop Greene (TexasRangers.com). What a shame. Here’s hoping Khalil can beat his personal demons.
- Hundley studies up on how to calm down (U-T). Padres bench coach Ted Simmons on Nick Hundley: “When I was a rookie, I hit .243 and had no clue what I was really doing behind the plate… Honestly, I think all these things are going to iron themselves out reasonably well with Nick. There’s no question in my mind he can do it. He’s able to do it if people aren’t impatient with him. What’s he got right now, less than a 150 games in the major leagues? (130 to be exact) You need three times that many with a catcher. What he needs to do is catch and learn hitters in the league.”
- Bell has eye on preserving union (U-T). Quoth Bell: “I think the owners are going to try to break up the union.” Of course. If I were an owner, I’d be trying to do the same thing. That there is a mighty powerful union, in case you hadn’t noticed.
Got links? Leave ‘em in the comments, email me (geoff@ducksnorts.com), or hit me up on Facebook or Twitter.
Need links? Check out Ducksnorts @ Delicious, updated daily.
by Geoff Young on Feb 23, 2010
We snuck in two innings of baseball on Sunday before the rains came. Arrived at Cunningham Stadium just after the first. Mostly Indiana fans who didn’t appreciate the plate umpire’s wide strike zone (winning presumably lessened the sting).
The rain fell slow but steady. Umbrellas opened, and those without scampered up the hillside in search of dry ground. We found some in the form of our car and, not wanting to wait what turned out to be 20 minutes for play to resume, drove to Mitsuwa for ramen. Good broth and chashu pork, but the noodles were a bit overcooked for my taste — gave too much, lacked firmness.
From there we walked to Book-Off, where I scored five paperbacks for five bucks:
- Andrew Blauner (ed.), Coach: 25 Writers Reflect on People Who Made a Difference — Includes contributions from Pat Conroy, John Irving, and George Plimpton, among others
- Richard Ben Cramer (ed.)., Best American Sports Writing 2004 — Includes Joe Posnanski’s article on Tony Pena
- Anne Lamott, Traveling Mercies: Some Thoughts on Faith — Don’t know why; I’ve long been meaning to read her, but not necessarily this book, although for a dollar it can stink and I won’t care
- David Marniss (ed.), The Best American Sports Writing 2007 — Includes Derek Zumsteg’s epic piece on Bugs Bunny
- Frank Zappa with Peter Occhiogrosso, The Real Frank Zappa Book — Because, you know, it’s Zappa
The rest of the afternoon and evening flashed by in a blur. An hour at the gym to keep working parts from breaking and broken parts from getting worse, then back home to sip freshly ground Sumatra coffee and scribble notes about nothing in particular (you’re soaking in them), then band rehearsal to wrestle with the guitar parts for “Mekong”, then home again to devour a bowl of fresh-from-the-pot chili and keep myself from thinking about Monday for as long as possible.
Two innings. It wasn’t much, but it was more than I’d had in far too long. Soon the game will consume me again and all will be right in the world. For now, two innings is enough to get me through the week.
by Geoff Young on Feb 19, 2010
Links? Sure, go nuts:
- Padres’ Blanks leaner, keener (U-T). Tim Sullivan talks about Kyle Blanks, who has dropped a lot of weight since the end of last season: “He remembers the early days of that diet as ‘miserable’, but the results were swift and gratifying.” As someone who has lost 20 pounds since October thanks to The Hacker’s Diet, I can attest that those first few days suck, but your body quickly adjusts. Good for Blanks, not just from a baseball standpoint but from a general health standpoint.
- I’ll tell you my two favorite activities at Friar Fan Fest (Gaslamp Ball). Bonus points for referencing George Lazenby and Huey Lewis.
- Most and fewest players getting a hit in a game in 2009 (Baseball-Reference). No team had more players get a hit in a game in 2009 than the Padres on July 31 against Milwaukee. Seriously?
- San Diego Padres: Draft Review (Fangraphs). Marc Hulet looks back at Padres drafts for 2006-2009.
- Padres Bloggers Want no Part of Jermaine Dye in San Diego (HotStove.com). Steve from Friarhood, Daniel from Friar Forecast, and I weigh in with our two cents… or I guess that’s six cents total.
- Moorad: ‘I’m pleased with the progress to date’ (U-T). Quoth Padres owner Jeff Moorad: “The organization continues to evolve, but I’m pleased with the progress to date. Most importantly, indications suggest that our fans are hearing us when we talk about our commitment to building a team that can win consistently, prioritizing the fan experience and affordability, and our commitment to the San Diego community. We have work to do, but I feel confident about the future.” [h/t reader LynchMob]
- The San Diego Padres should consider marketing themselves to Catholics (Gaslamp Ball). First off, no. Second, the Cardinals might have a better claim on the title “Team of Catholicism.” Third, and finally, no. [h/t Mike at Avenging Jack Murphy]
- The Verducci Effect (Baseball Analysts). Jeremy Greenhouse finds that “the Verducci Effect, like most everything else I tested, is not significant in predicting future injuries. Injuries are hard enough to predict as is, and there’s certainly no straightforward rule of thumb.” In other words, take Tom Verducci’s list with appropriate buckets of salt.
- Rabbit Maranville Is Not a Nazi (Baseball Researcher). Fascinating… just fascinating. [h/t Hardball Times]
- The compilation: MLB team-by-team top-10 prospects (Hardball Times). Matt Hagen rates the Padres as the #12 farm system in MLB.
- Bullpen Gospels: Betrayed By The Meal Ticket (Baseball America). Reader LynchMob passes along the latest from Friend of Ducksnorts Dirk Hayhurst: “Now it’s not only my arm that hurts; it’s my house payment, car payment, wife and family. It’s the gas tank and the heating bill, the appliances and groceries. It’s all the things I took for granted when I was strong and feeling invincible, demanding uninterrupted prosperity from my right limb. There’s enough resistance in this profession, the last place you expect to find it is in your own body.” Here’s to a quick and full recovery.
Meanwhile, back at the bat cave…
Not Your Father’s Sabermetrics
John Sickels made some comments the other day that got folks’ attention. I started writing an article about it, but then everyone beat me to the punch and I lost my motivation.
I’ll just say that I generally agree with Sickels, although I also recognize that there is an audience for the stuff he finds esoteric. The current flood of information and constantly emerging tools may further alienate some people from a more analytical approach to baseball; at the same time, it may inspire others to conduct research that could one day prove useful. To the interwebs:
- Get Off My Lawn (Minor League Ball). Sickels kicks it off: “I’m finding that as I read the most advanced sabermetric stuff regarding major league players, my eyes glaze over and I start to get the grad school feeling again: why am I reading this? I’m not enjoying it. I want to watch a baseball game.” Amen, brother.
- On staying off John’s Lawn (Hardball Times): John Barten adds his thoughts: “I don’t begrudge people who want to improve on existing metrics and factor in new knowledge to produce more precision… That being said, I ask for two things from those who build new metrics. One, have patience with those who share your sensibilities, but not necessarily your skill set. And two, when you introduce a new metric or write a piece of analysis based thereon, make it a point to go out of your way to write for both the math majors and laypersons alike.”
- Be Stupid(er) (Baseball Prospectus). Will Carroll weighs in as well: “Keith Woolner wrote about the Hilbert questions, things baseball would address over the next decade, in one of the early BP annuals. Here in 2010, I think that instead of answering more and more esoteric questions in the next ten years, baseball analysis as a whole would be better off pausing and trying to explain some of it to the guy in Aisle 4, Row 8, Seat 113.”
Yeah, a lot of what’s going on in sabermetrics makes my head spin and I don’t understand the need for it. But eventually, some of this stuff may come in handy. I look forward to that day and to hearing the condensed version…
by Geoff Young on Feb 18, 2010
Websoulsurfer offers some interesting thoughts on the Padres current payroll situation and long-term prognosis. A few points deserve further attention:
I have found that no team since the advent of Free Agency has won a World Series with one player making more than 16% of total payroll and no team has made it to the World Series (or even the NLCS) with one player making more than 20% of the total payroll.
This seems to match what we would expect. Many investment strategies emphasize diversification as a way to minimize risk, the idea being that any single failure is less likely to cause a catastrophic collapse. You know, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
No small market team today can afford to keep players of Adrian Gonzalez’s caliber, players that will earn $20+ million in free agency, and continue to compete with one player taking up such a large of a percentage of their total payroll.
I’m in total agreement here as well. My opinion diverges from Websoulsurfer’s, however, when it comes to the implications of these realities. He asserts that “The system in baseball as a whole needs to be changed in order for these small market teams to consistently compete.”
Many people believe this to be true, but I am not one of them. Organizations have demonstrated that smarts can overcome money. The Oakland A’s, thanks to Moneyball, are the most famous example, but the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins also have found ways to thrive over the years despite relatively limited resources. There is no reason other teams cannot duplicate these successes… as long as they know what they’re doing.
Continue reading ›
David Eckstein: Not Very Good, Not a Problem
by Geoff Young on Mar 02, 2010 (5) Comments
Daniel at Friar Forecast wishes the Padres had signed free agent second baseman Felipe Lopez to replace incumbent David Eckstein. Of Eckstein, Daniel says, “He is a terrible player. His fielding and batting are both below average.”
I can’t argue the point, but I can approach it from a different angle. Maybe my expectations for 2010 are unreasonably low (certainly lower than Heath Bell’s expectations), but I don’t see Lopez making an appreciable difference in where the Padres end up in the standings this year. I also don’t see him as the long-term solution to anything.
Furthermore, although it is true that Eckstein offers precious little value on the field, I like all the things about him that he gets grief for (scrappiness and what-not), especially on a team filled with young up-and-comers that are learning how to conduct themselves at the big-league level. I want to see guys play hard (not reckless; that’s a different thing), regardless of their talent level.
Eckstein plays hard, and I’m glad kids like Kyle Blanks and Everth Cabrera (who seems to grasp the concept) will watch him do that every day. Again, if I thought the Padres had a chance to contend this year, I might feel otherwise, but from where I sit, this season is all about getting the youngsters acclimated to their environment so they can contribute down the line, when those extra few wins or losses might mean something.
Besides, it’s not as though Eckstein is blocking anyone. Matt Antonelli hasn’t developed as expected; if that suddenly changes, I imagine he’ll find himself in San Diego before too long. Josh Barfield? That would be a fun story, but I’m not holding my breath.
The Padres have committed themselves to playing the kids, which is great. What’s also great is having a few veterans around to help them make the transition into big-leaguers. Eckstein fills that role. As for the “problem” of sticking him in the lineup every day to make outs, that will resolve itself by the time it matters. Like you, I look forward to such a time. Until then: Don’t worry, be scrappy.