Me Elsewhere: Petco Park Still Isn’t Kind to Hitters

by Geoff Young on Feb 17, 2010 (3) Comments

File my latest at Hardball Times under “D” for “duh”: Three years ago I studied Petco Park’s effect on offense. The results — that it kills offense — matched what my eyes told me, which is always nice. Now, with three more years of data, I’ve revisited the earlier study and found that most of the findings still hold true.

Two items of particular interest are Petco Park’s effect on triples and walks. Triples have become a less frequent occurrence at Petco Park every year since its inception (Petco Park is the only venue to see consistent movement in one direction throughout the 2004-2009 period). Walks are all over the map: In 2007, Petco Park was the 28th toughest place to draw a walk; in 2009, it was the easiest. Go figure.

Anyway, go read the entire article. You’ll be glad you did.

Padres Prospects Worth Watching in 2010: Hitters

by Geoff Young on Feb 15, 2010 (7) Comments

In lieu of a top prospects list, I thought this year I’d highlight a few kids I’ll be keeping an eye on for various reasons. We’ll cover 15 hitters today and 15 pitchers next week. To the list:

  • Mitch Canham, C, 25 – I rated Canham the Padres #16 prospect coming into 2009. He hasn’t advanced as a hitter and there are still questions about whether he can stay behind the plate. It’d be nice to have a legitimate catcher in the system just in case Nick Hundley isn’t as good as I think he is. Maybe Canham will be a late bloomer, a la Will Venable, but right now, I’m not seeing it in his .275/.361/.399 career line (1090 PA).
  • Sawyer Carroll, RF, 24 – Last year’s #17 prospect is a little old and hasn’t shown much home-run power yet, but the rest of his offensive game is solid, as evidenced by the career .304/.400/.483 line in 850 PA.
  • Drew Cumberland, SS, 21 – Middle infielders with top-of-the order skills (career line of .292/.377/.392 in 692 PA, 41-for-49 SB) don’t grow on trees, but can he stay healthy? Last year’s #11 prospect has never played as many as 80 games in a season.
  • James Darnell, 3B, 23 – His .899 fielding percentage in 2009 doesn’t look good, but that bat makes up for a lot. Darnell, ranked #14 last year and identified as a sleeper, owns a .319/.428/.542 career line in 630 PA. Although it’s unclear what position he’ll end up playing (guess here is corner outfield), he could move quickly.
  • Jaff Decker, LF, 20 – Last year’s #4 prospect is a hitting machine who has posted ridiculous numbers (683 PA, .313/.466/.516) in his first two pro seasons. The main concerns with Decker are that he doesn’t look like Adonis and that he possesses old player’s skills (see Grieve, Ben).
  • Allan Dykstra, 1B, 23 – Speaking of old player’s skills, last year’s #8 prospect presents an intriguing case. The Padres reworked Dykstra’s stroke last year and he struggled. For his career, he’s hitting .230/.401/.379 in 569 PA. The OBP gives hope, but he needs to step up the rest of his game in a big way.
  • Logan Forsythe, 3B, 23 – Last year’s #18 prospect is five days older than Darnell but played a level higher in 2009. Although Forsythe’s performance dropped significantly after a mid-season promotion to San Antonio, his overall numbers as a pro (641 PA, .297/.430/.429) are strong. He isn’t as strong an offensive force as Darnell but is more likely to remain at the hot corner.
  • Jonathan Galvez, SS, 19 – His first exposure to baseball on the North American continent went well. I don’t put much stock in Arizona League numbers, but an 18-year-old middle infielder who hits .295/.399/.503 at any level gets my attention. I’d ranked him #10 last year.
  • Kellen Kulbacki, RF, 24 – I love his bat (.284/.370/.472 in 841 PA for the career), but 2009 was a lost season (he played just 36 games due to shoulder problems). Kulbacki is old and doesn’t play a premium position. If healthy, he could be a force, but the clock is ticking for last year’s #2 prospect.
  • Rymer Liriano, CF, 19 – I’m slowly warming to Liriano. In his pro debut, he struck out in 40% of his plate appearances; last year, while moving to a more advanced Rookie League, he cut that number to 24%. He is raw and has a long way to go, but there is upside. For his career, he has hit .268/.342/.445 in 483 PA. I didn’t rank Liriano last year, but if I were doing a top 10 for 2010, he’d probably be in it.
  • Yair Lopez, LF, 18 – I noticed this kid last summer, when he hit .293/.419/.420 in 222 PA (those are his career numbers, too) as one of the younger players in the DSL. Lopez isn’t as heralded as Luis Domoromo but is worth tracking.
  • Jorge Minyeti, 2B/3B/SS, 19 – Minyeti’s jump to the North American continent didn’t go quite as smoothly as that of Galvez. I had Minyeti ranked as the Padres #27 prospect coming into 2009 and identified him as one of my sleepers. He led the DSL in walks as a 17-year-old before slipping last year. Still, a career line of .267/.423/.345 is enough to keep him on my radar.
  • Edinson Rincon, 3B, 19 – Like Lopez and Minyeti, Rincon (#30 last year) is a guy whose DSL numbers jumped out at me. When healthy (not often), he has produced (.289/.400/.413 in 604 PA), although the career .784 fielding percentage portends a move to a less demanding position. His bat should play anywhere.
  • Donavan Tate, CF, 19 – Due to a variety of injuries, Tate has yet to make his pro debut. Often compared to ex-Padre Mike Cameron, Tate will get a chance to show whether the organization’s movement away from “safer” college picks in the first round was justified.
  • Everett Williams, CF, 19 – The Padres tabbed another toolsy high school outfielder with their second pick in 2009. Williams got into 10 games last summer, hitting .279/.354/.488 in 48 PA at Peoria and Eugene.

Those are some hitters I’ll be watching in 2010. Next week, we’ll check in on the pitchers.

Gaslamp Ball Turns Five, Ducksnorts Feels Old

by Geoff Young on Feb 14, 2010 (0) Comments

Congrats to Dex, jbox, and the gang as Gaslamp Ball celebrates five years of blogging the Padres. Way to go, guys.

You know what was happening when Ducksnorts celebrated its fifth anniversary? Adam Eaton was getting beat like a drum at Coors Field; Phil Nevin started at third base and Bubba Trammell knocked a meaningless homer in the ninth. Of the 17 players who got into the game for the Padres that day, four saw big-league action in 2009.

I feel old. Pass the creamed spinach, please.

Chat, Anyone?

by Geoff Young on Feb 13, 2010 (4) Comments

The guys at Friar Forecast recently conducted a live chat and it looked like fun. Since I’m a big fan of stealing from the best, I thought we might try something similar here at Ducksnorts this year… assuming there is interest.

So. Is there interest?

Friday Links (12 Feb 10)

by Geoff Young on Feb 12, 2010 (4) Comments

One suggested rhyme for Yorvit came via Twitter: Corvette. Hey, if you can rhyme CIA and Mafia, why not…

  • Blog Update: Joining the Yardbarker Network (Friar Forecast). Congrats to Daniel and company!
  • Maybe it’s time to worry about the Padres (It’s About The Money, Stupid). Jason raises a valid question: “Or, is the ownership and market of San Diego not viable for the long term? If the total payroll for this organization is unable to materially increase over the next few years, what’s to become of the Padres? Do they sink into the ‘professional farm system’ category for other teams, similar to what Pittsburgh (#30 last year), Florida (#29), etc. have been over recent years?”
  • Thoughts on a New Box Score (Baseball Analysts). Dave Allen offers an intriguing alternative to the traditional box score. I can’t say I love it, but I do love the thinking behind it, and I love that someone is actually taking on the task. Innovation often works in unexpected and unintended ways. Maybe we end up with a better box score, maybe we don’t; either way, I’ll bet something good comes out of this effort. [h/t Rob Neyer]
  • RJ’s Fro Exclusive Interview with Padres Closer Heath Bell (RJ’s Fro). I’m glad they talked about Bell’s appearance on Sam the Cooking Guy. I met Bell once, and we talked about that as well. Cool dude. [h/t Friar John]
  • Fastball Gains (FanGraphs). Matthew Carruth examines “the biggest gains and losses in both fastball speed and fastball frequency.” Kevin Correia shows up among the leaders (#5) in increases in fastball speed from 2008 to 2009, while Chris Young ranks among the biggest drops (#12); former Padres Tim Redding and Oliver Perez also appear on the latter list.
  • Hitters by Zones (Baseball Analysts). Jeremy Greenhouse shows, among other things, that you don’t want to pitch Adrian Gonzalez middle away.
  • Lucky Streaks (Baseball-Reference). Raphy highlights some fun hitting streaks. Several Padres are represented, including Tony Gwynn (duh), Bobby Brown, and Jeff Gardner. Hmmm, which of these names is not like the other?
  • Name to know No. 9: Padres’ Kyle Blanks the next big thing (USA Today). Jorge L. Ortiz gives Gigantor some love. That sounds a little kinky, but you know what I mean. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • SABR: Emerald Guide to Baseball 2010 (SABR). “To get your free PDF of The Emerald Guide to Baseball 2010, as well as the guides for 2007–2009, please fill out the form below and hit ‘Submit.’ You’ll get an email with a download link, and one or two more from SABR, but that’s it. We won’t sell or give your information to anyone else.” Sweet. [h/t Baseball-Reference]
  • Top 10 prospects for 2010: Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres (Hardball Times). Matt Hagen gives us his list. I like where he’s got Edinson Rincon and Wynn Pelzer. Overall, this is pretty solid, although I’m not sold on Aaron Poreda. We’ll be talking more about prospects around here over the next couple weeks.
  • Youth can serve Padres well in 2010 (Padres.com). I’m not picking on Corey here, but I’ve heard many people suggest that the Padres’ 37-25 record over their final 62 games of 2009 may portend greater things in 2010. I’d like to know whether there’s any evidence of a meaningful relationship between the way a team finishes one season and its performance in the next. My guess is there isn’t, or if there is, it isn’t very strong.
  • How to fix baseball’s economics as Spring Training approaches (SDNN). Lee Hamilton doesn’t like the status quo and wants to do something about it: “Now comes the challenge of how to fix a game that has a 100-win Yankees team competing with a 103-loss Washington Nationals team. Or the challenge of how not to penalize the brilliant leadership of the Red Sox, but how to force the Marlins owners to put a better product on the field.” Since 1918, the Red Sox and Marlins each have won two World Series. I’m just sayin’. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Fans, Media and Racism Without Racists (TYU). Fascinating article by Moshe Mandel. Excellent discussion ensues. [h/t Hardball Times]
  • Giants Dynamic Pricing (MLB.com). Reader LynchMob sends this: “Have you seen/heard what the Giants are doing with ticket prices… makes sense, if you ask me… and I’m guessing the Giants think it makes cents also :-) ” You know another thing about the Giants? It’s awesome when they lose.
  • Offseason workouts encouraging to Padres (NC Times). Courtesy of reader Nick G: “This story is very encouraging. Sounds like a few guys have been working out in SD all winter. Led by Tony the Gwynn Jr, of course. Love it.”

Seriously, why can’t we be friends?

Mailbag: Spring Training Questions

by Geoff Young on Feb 11, 2010 (3) Comments

Ryan from The Padres, Chargers, Illini Blog writes:

Geoff,

As it stands now, it seems like the roster is more or less set to start the season, or at least more set at this stage of the offseason than in years past. Given that (apparent) certainty, what are a few things you’ll be looking for in Spring Training?

All this stability is weird, isn’t it? First, let’s take a quick inventory of the roster as I see it:

Definite

SP: Kevin Correia, Jon Garland, Clayton Richard, Chris Young
RP: Mike Adams, Heath Bell, Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, Joe Thatcher
C: Nick Hundley, Yorvit Torrealba
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: David Eckstein
3B: Chase Headley
SS: Everth Cabrera
UT: Jerry Hairston Jr.
OF: Kyle Blanks, Tony Gwynn Jr., Scott Hairston, Will Venable

Assuming no further moves, this leaves five from the following groups:

Probable

SP: Mat Latos
SP/RP: Sean Gallagher
UT: Oscar Salazar
OF: Matt Stairs

Possible

SP: Wade LeBlanc, Cesar Ramos, Tim Stauffer
RP: Adam Russell, Ryan Webb

Doubtful

SP: Cesar Carrillo, Ernesto Frieri, Aaron Poreda
RP: Radhames Liz, Luis Perdomo
C: Dusty Ryan
OF: Aaron Cunningham

Here’s what I’ll be watching:

  • The left side of the infield — Cabrera is entering his sophomore campaign after no previous experience above Low-A ball. What kinds of adjustments will he make at the plate and in the field to ensure continued success? Headley returns to his natural position after two years of exile in left field. Can he still handle the hot corner? Will he develop into the hitter many people expected him to become? Also, what effect will their inexperience have on the pitching staff? This might not be the best year to be a groundball pitcher on the Padres.
  • Four outfielders — I’m assuming Blanks will be the everyday left fielder, which leaves Gwynn, Scott Hairston, and Venable for the other two spots. On merit, Hairston and Venable should garner most of the playing time, but there are political considerations. Can those two do enough to remove any doubt that they belong in the lineup more often than not? Alternatively, can Gwynn step up his game enough to justify the amount of action he’s likely to see?
  • Three pitchers — In the rotation, the front four of Correia, Garland, Richard, and Young appear to be set. Latos would seem to be the early favorite for #5, although he could start in the minors if the Padres want to take a longer look at Gallagher and/or Stauffer, both of whom are out of options. In the bullpen, with five spots spoken for, and given Bud Black’s preference for a 12-man staff, there are two openings. Russell and Webb both pitched reasonably well after coming over in trades last summer, while Gallagher’s versatility and status could help push him into a a swingman role. There are some intriguing arms in the mix this year; it should be fun to watch them battle it out for those final vacancies.

Thanks for the question, Ryan. Now we just have to wait and see how it all unfolds…

What Rhymes with Yorvit?

by Geoff Young on Feb 10, 2010 (8) Comments

The Padres have signed veteran catcher Yorvit Torrealba to a 1-year, $1.25 million deal, with a $3.5 million mutual option for 2011. The deal was agreed upon last Friday and made official on Tuesday.

Things to know about Torrealba:

  • He hit .258/.316/.394 over the past four seasons despite getting to play half his games at Coors Field
  • In 84 PA at Petco Park, he has hit .156/.198/.234 with a homer; the homer came on September 5, 2006, against Chris Young, who now can ask his new batterymate how to avoid giving up jacks to weak-hitting catchers
  • His name is way cooler than yours

He isn’t great, but he’s probably no worse than his predecessor, Henry Blanco. As Nick Hundley’s backup, Torrealba should be Servaisable. Meanwhile, Dusty Ryan assumes the “ready at Triple-A if needed” role held by Luke Carlin in 2008 and by Eliezer Alfonzo in 2009.

Me, Elsewhere: BP Kings Update

by Geoff Young on Feb 09, 2010 (2) Comments

I meant to mention this earlier, but got sidetracked. My keeper list in BP Kings and the thought process behind it are up at Baseball Prospectus. No Padres, I’m afraid…

I’m Too Speedy for This Shirt

by Geoff Young on Feb 09, 2010 (1) Comments

While we’re all anxiously awaiting the official signing of Yorvit Torrealba, here’s something that caught my eye: Gaslamp Ball informs us that Tony Gwynn’s daughter recently got married to former Padres farmhand Kennard Jones. That got me to wondering what I’d said about Jones back in the day.

The Padres selected Jones out of the University of Indiana in the third round of the 2002 draft. That’s the year they ended up with Khalil Greene, Paul McAnulty, George Kottaras, and a whole lotta nothing (wouldn’t it have been nice to sign 21st round pick Andy LaRoche?).

In December 2003, Baseball America ranked Jones as the #8 prospect in the Padres system. My comment at the time:

Jones is [Freddy] Guzman without the base-stealing technique or infield experience. His upside is Juan Pierre. How many guys with Pierre’s skill set have regular gigs in the bigs nowadays?

Well, I can think of at least one guy who doesn’t (although a GLB commenter has a suggested remedy: “I’m surprised Kennard didn’t change his last name to Gwynn. Automatic spot on a 40 man roster.”). Anyway, enough about Jones; a few items from a Jim Callis chat mentioned at the end of that post are worth rehashing:

  • In discussing the 2004 draft and what the Padres might do with the first pick overall, Callis mentioned Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, Jered Weaver, and Jeremy Sowers as possibilities, noting also that “Local high school product Matt Bush, a SS/RHP, might be pretty tempting as well.” Not that this absolves anyone of anything, but it’s good to remember that Bush was well regarded before he turned into a steaming pile of crap.
  • Callis also envisioned Josh Barfield hitting for a .300-plus average, with 40 doubles, 25 homers, and 110 RBIs in his prime, comparing him favorably to Nomar Garciaparra. Hey, I adored Barfield. I thought he’d be another Orlando Hudson. So much for that.
  • And Callis on Greene: “I’m not sure he’ll hit much this year, maybe around .250 with 8-10 homers, but can see him becoming a .275 hitter with 12-15 homers and 30-plus doubles in time.” For the record, Greene hit .273 with 15 homers and 31 doubles in 2004.

Whatever. I’m ready to talk about actual baseball. When do the games start?

Here’s to You, Mr. Winningham

by Geoff Young on Feb 08, 2010 (5) Comments

Once upon a time in the ’80s, when baseball men believed Vince Coleman had the skills necessary to compete at the highest level and considered Donell Nixon a prospect, my friend Dan and I stumbled across a newspaper crossword puzzle that had as one of its clues, “____ Winningham” (four letters). The correct answer was Mare, an American actress perhaps best known for her role as Wendy Beamish in St. Elmo’s Fire, but we both immediately flashed on Herm, a fleet-footed outfielder perhaps best known for being part of the trade that sent Gary Carter from Montreal to the Big Apple.

Thinking of Winningham gets me thinking of other Mets prospects that fizzled. Billy Beane later gained fame as general manager of the Oakland A’s and author of Moneyball (I kid, I kid!), while Shawn Abner and Stan Jefferson came to San Diego (along with Kevin Mitchell) in the Kevin McReynolds deal, where they continued to… what is the opposite of develop?

From Abner and Jefferson, it’s a short step to other failed Padres prospects: Randall Byers, Ray McDavid, Marc Newfield, Gabe Alvarez, and so on up to Sean Burroughs, whom I’d expected would be the new Chipper Jones by now, or at least some kind of Jeff Cirillo/Bill Mueller hybrid. Spilt milk. Water under the bridge. Still, it leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

So, here’s to you, Mr. Winningham, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you. And by “a nation,” I mean me, because nobody else knows what the heck I’m talking about.