In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Rockies (3 May 2005)
Tue, May 3, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Redding (0-4, 7.94 ERA) vs Jamey Wright (1-2, 6.85 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine
Damian Jackson, recalled to replace last night’s hero Adam Hyzdu, who has been DFA’d, gets the start at shortstop. Call it the Ducksnorts curse. I’ll try not to put Jake Peavy’s name in a headline anytime soon.
Speaking of curses, I can deny it no more. And so I appeal to the man himself:
A Humble Request to the Grand Wizard Valdezmort to Remove His Wicked Curse
Izzy, Izzy - oh how we long for thee;
Izzy, Izzy - oh what mystery lies beneath your curse?
Who foresaw that all who followed you would be worse?
Izzy, is he - Valdes or Valdez?
Who knew the loss of mediocrity
Would lead to such great travesty?
We have suffered through Sterling, Justin, Tank, and now Redding;
Where in Hades is our fifth starter heading?
Come what May, you’ve made us pay
In ways we’re all regretting.
Izzy, Izzy - who would have guessed
That among all others you were the best,
Blessed as you were with run support
And a curious reluctance to pitch inside?
From this truth we cannot hide:
Despite an ERA well over five,
The Padres’ bats did come alive
When each fifth day you toed the slab
And saved us from our drab existence,
Rewarding us with your persistence
At winning games despite our insistence
That it was all just smoke and mirrors.
Izzy, Izzy - with you we tripped the light craptastic,
But since you left, we’ve gone quite spastic;
So now we implore thee, in truly awful verse,
Please remove your wicked curse
That has our fifth starter in reverse.
We beg of thee, please set us free
And we shall speak no further ill of you
Than if you’d pitched like Vida Blue.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 3, 2005 at 7:01 pm
Damnit, Geoff.
May 3, 2005 at 7:10 pm
Redding is falling behind everyone.
May 3, 2005 at 7:12 pm
Okay, so we’re only four batters into the game.
Richard: I hope that was a good damnit.
May 3, 2005 at 7:12 pm
It’s 3-0 if we’re at Coors. Hawpe got all of that one.
May 3, 2005 at 7:16 pm
Keeping track of “expected runs before/after each AB.” I’ll post after each inning.
May 3, 2005 at 7:17 pm
Sweet. I look forward to it.
May 3, 2005 at 7:19 pm
Roberts steals second. Looked to me like he might’ve been picked off just before that pitch.
May 3, 2005 at 7:20 pm
For the Rockies:
Batter - Before - After
1 - 0.49 - 0.88
2 - 0.88 - 0.69
3 - 0.69 - 0.92
4 - 0.92 - 0.44
5 - 0.44 - 0.00
May 3, 2005 at 7:22 pm
What a play. Very nice.
May 3, 2005 at 7:24 pm
Klesko is battling…
May 3, 2005 at 7:25 pm
Klesko struck out twice. Once swinging, then looking.
May 3, 2005 at 7:26 pm
Batter - Before - After
Roberts - 0.49 - 1.13
Loretta - 1.13 - 0.69
Giles - 0.69 - 0.33
Nevin - 0.33 - 0.61
Klesko - 0.61 - 0.00
May 3, 2005 at 7:28 pm
DFA?
May 3, 2005 at 7:29 pm
Klesko clearly went around on that 2-2 pitch.
Richard: How are you calculating expected runs?
May 3, 2005 at 7:30 pm
Oops, sorry: DFA = designated for assignment.
Homer Greene. Blech.
May 3, 2005 at 7:30 pm
Nichols’s Expectedd Runs Table.
May 3, 2005 at 7:31 pm
Why didn’t Roberts score on the Nevin hit?
May 3, 2005 at 7:32 pm
Nevin hit a grounder up the middle. Second baseman Gonzalez made a diving stop and fired to the plate.
May 3, 2005 at 7:33 pm
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users.....druns.html
May 3, 2005 at 7:33 pm
It was a damn fine play, too.
May 3, 2005 at 7:35 pm
Batter - Before - After
Holliday - 0.49 - 0.26
Greene - 0.26 - 1.26
Gonzalez - 1.26 - 1.10
Wright - 1.10 - 1.23
Sullivan - 1.23 - 0.00
1 Run Scored.
May 3, 2005 at 7:36 pm
Correction:
Sullivan - 1.23 - 1.00
May 3, 2005 at 7:36 pm
Cory Sullivan is an interesting story … “old” guy makes team based on good season in minors and impressive performance in ST … how’s he look?
May 3, 2005 at 7:38 pm
Dodger’s down 1-0 to ‘Nats
May 3, 2005 at 7:39 pm
Sorry for the apostrophe in Dodger’s
May 3, 2005 at 7:39 pm
Batter - Before - After
Hernandez - 0.49 - 0.26
Burroughs - 0.26 - 0.52
Jackson - 0.52 - 0.00
That was just a nice play.
May 3, 2005 at 7:41 pm
After two innings, the Padres have “squandered” 1.65 runs.
May 3, 2005 at 7:41 pm
Sullivan looks like he can play a little. He was one of the guys who ruined Opening Day for the Pads, wasn’t he?
May 3, 2005 at 7:43 pm
I find it interesting that sacrifice bunts reduce your expected runs scored.
May 3, 2005 at 7:44 pm
Someone should remind DJ that you shouldn’t try to snag a ball with the heel of the glove.
May 3, 2005 at 7:44 pm
Error Damian Jackson. Pads lead the league with 20 errors.
May 3, 2005 at 7:45 pm
Redding really can’t afford his defense doubling the offense’s odds of scoring.
May 3, 2005 at 7:45 pm
Brian Sweeney. That’s who I forgot.
May 3, 2005 at 7:46 pm
Batter - Before - After
Barmes - 0.49 - 0.26
Helton - 0.26 - 0.52
Hawpe - 0.52 - 0.92
Atkins - 0.92 - 0.00
Very nice DP.
May 3, 2005 at 7:47 pm
Loretta made a nice turn on that DP. Burroughs’ feed was a little off and handcuffed him a bit. Good recovery.
May 3, 2005 at 7:49 pm
If you have 1st & 3rd, 0 outs … and the guy on 1st steals 2nd … the odds of scoring go down (from 87% to 86%) … hmmm … but if you do score, you’re likely to score more (1.98 vs 1.75) … I suppose with the 1st/3rd, 0-out scenario, many times the team takes the DP and lets the runner score?
May 3, 2005 at 7:49 pm
Nice curveball.
May 3, 2005 at 7:49 pm
Padres #5 starters since Opening Day 2005:
33 GS, 174.2 IP, 6.44 ERA, 11.49 H/9, 2.89 BB/9, 3.71 K/9
May 3, 2005 at 7:50 pm
The Chicken is in the booth.
May 3, 2005 at 7:50 pm
What about Brian Sweeney?
May 3, 2005 at 7:51 pm
1st & 3rd, 0 outs : 1.75
2nd & 3rd, 0 outs : 1.98
May 3, 2005 at 7:51 pm
Looks like you mean “since Opening Day 2004″ …
May 3, 2005 at 7:53 pm
Batter - Before - After
Redding - 0.49 - 0.26
Roberts - 0.26 - 0.10
Loretta - 0.10 - 0.33
Giles - 0.33 - 0.00
Damn that shift.
May 3, 2005 at 7:53 pm
‘Nats go up 2-0 on Dodgers … Gi’nts up 1-0 on D-backs …
May 3, 2005 at 7:53 pm
Yep, you are correct. Since Opening Day 2004.
Sullivan makes a great diving effort on Loretta’s ball. Ack, Giles hit that up the middle. Why was the shorstop there?
May 3, 2005 at 7:54 pm
LM, what were you looking at when you came up with those numbers?
May 3, 2005 at 7:55 pm
Nevermind…
May 3, 2005 at 7:55 pm
“If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the Chicken?” Ugh, that’s terrible.
LynchMob: I wrote a really wretched poem asking Ismael Valdez to remove his curse on our fifth starter. I tried to inlude all who have tried to fill his shoes, and I forgot to mention Sweeney.
May 3, 2005 at 7:56 pm
The damned Giles shift, Geoff.
May 3, 2005 at 7:56 pm
The AFLAC trivia question from the Rockies broadcast: Who is the only Padre to lead the league in home runs?
May 3, 2005 at 7:57 pm
Mud reveals that he once donned the Bernie the Brewer mascot suit.
May 3, 2005 at 7:58 pm
Is it me, or is Redding all of a sudden looking good? That last fastball was 93 mph and unhittable.
May 3, 2005 at 7:58 pm
Batter - Before - After
Holliday - 0.49 - 0.26
Greene - 0.26 -0.10
Gonzalez - 0.10 - 0.00
He made Gonzalez look bad. Or maybe Gonzalez is bad. meh
May 3, 2005 at 7:58 pm
In the table that I posted the URL previously … it says that if situation = 1st+3rd,0-outs, then the “Prob > 0″ (= “the probability that a team will score at least one run in that inning”) is 0.870 … but for 2nd+3rd,0-outs, it’s 0.860.
May 3, 2005 at 8:00 pm
Nick: My first guess (Cammy) was wrong, but my second guess was right.
May 3, 2005 at 8:00 pm
Nick, McGriff.
May 3, 2005 at 8:00 pm
When did Sweeney try to fill Valdez’ shoes???
May 3, 2005 at 8:00 pm
Khalil got HBP in his first AB tonight with Elsinore. Thankfully, I assume not on the hand because he’s still in the game.
May 3, 2005 at 8:01 pm
I was thinking McGriff too. Didn’t Sheff come close that year as well? To bb-ref I go…
May 3, 2005 at 8:01 pm
Redding through 4 innings: 57 pitches, 41 strikes; 8 GB, 2 FB. Not bad.
May 3, 2005 at 8:02 pm
McGriff is right … see http://www.baseball-reference......gues.shtml for details
May 3, 2005 at 8:03 pm
LM: Sweeney started Oct. 2 last year at Arizona: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.
May 3, 2005 at 8:03 pm
Brian Fuentes was the rat at Chuck E. Cheese. That’s good stuff.
May 3, 2005 at 8:05 pm
Batter - Before - After
Nevin - 0.49 - 0.26
Klesko - 0.26 - 0.10
Hernandez - 0.10 - 0.23
Burroughs - 0.23 - 0.00
I’d rather not see players smiling when they’re losing.
May 3, 2005 at 8:07 pm
That Aflac commercial just ain’t right.
May 3, 2005 at 8:08 pm
Oh, that Sweeney … I was getting my Sweeney’s confused …
May 3, 2005 at 8:08 pm
Khalil strikes out in AB #2.
May 3, 2005 at 8:11 pm
Batter - Before - After
Wright - 0.49 - 0.26
Sullivan - 0.26 - 0.10
Barmes - 0.10 - 0.00
Redding is looking really good.
May 3, 2005 at 8:12 pm
Tony’s SDSU squad is in a close one with Fullerton on ESPN2. 3-3 in the bottom of the 10th, CSUF with 2 runners on.
May 3, 2005 at 8:12 pm
Redding’s ERA for the year has fallen to sub-7.00 levels. heh
May 3, 2005 at 8:14 pm
Damian Jackson’s numbers at AAA Portland = ..353/.477/.647 in 64 PAs … en fuego!
May 3, 2005 at 8:14 pm
Is that like the 10th time a Pads pitcher has screwed up a sac bunt this year? Seems like it…
May 3, 2005 at 8:15 pm
That was ugly.
May 3, 2005 at 8:16 pm
Perhaps Bochy should consider PH’ing earlier for the #5 guy …
May 3, 2005 at 8:17 pm
Redding hasn’t thrown 70 pitches, LM.
May 3, 2005 at 8:17 pm
AZ puts a 2-spot on the board vs Gi’nts … now up 2-1 …
May 3, 2005 at 8:18 pm
I wish they’d show a camera angle from centerfield instead of all this other crap.
May 3, 2005 at 8:18 pm
So? What are the chances that he gets pulled in the next 1/2 inning? And what was the “opportunity cost” of not PH’ing in that situation?
May 3, 2005 at 8:20 pm
Have DJ run here? … try some small ball?
May 3, 2005 at 8:21 pm
Back from a bowl of pasta. So, is this the most unlikely pitchers’ duel or what?
May 3, 2005 at 8:22 pm
Loretta gets hit on the front pantleg.
May 3, 2005 at 8:22 pm
Well, so much for the curse of Valdez…let’s see if this can end the curse of Giles’s bat
May 3, 2005 at 8:23 pm
Giles vs Wright: .450/.656/.650 in 20 AB coming into tonight’s game.
May 3, 2005 at 8:25 pm
Giles grounds a 3-1 pitch to first, inning over. Ugh.
May 3, 2005 at 8:25 pm
Batter - Before - After
Jackson - 0.49 - 0.88
Redding - 0.88 - 0.52
Running: Jackson 0.69
Roberts - 0.69 - 0.33
Loretta - 0.33 - 0.44
Giles - 0.44 - 0.00
Damn. You don’t pull a pitcher who has only thrown 68 pitches and given up only one hard hit ball, just so you can have a guy who isn’t good enough to start in the field hit with a man on first.
May 3, 2005 at 8:28 pm
Redding is reminiscent of Eaton.
May 3, 2005 at 8:30 pm
Redding’s got a nice breaking ball tonight.
May 3, 2005 at 8:32 pm
Batter - Before - After
Helton - 0.49 - 0.26
Hawpe - 0.26 - 0.10
Atkins - 0.10 - 0.00
Redding is looking down right un-hittable. He has good, good movement on his fastball.
May 3, 2005 at 8:32 pm
OMG, that was a beautiful sequence to Atkins.
May 3, 2005 at 8:32 pm
Wow, where has this been all year?
May 3, 2005 at 8:33 pm
Humberto who? (not that I cared in the first place, but damn)
May 3, 2005 at 8:33 pm
Redding has given up A LOT more than just 1 hard hit ball … just not tonight
… yet!
May 3, 2005 at 8:34 pm
Redding through 6: 85 pitches, 60 strikes; 9 GB, 5 FB.
May 3, 2005 at 8:34 pm
Khalil pops out in AB 3.
May 3, 2005 at 8:35 pm
OT … have you guys noticed what David Dellucci’s doing for the Rangers? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5823 … 24 walks in ~73 PAs going into tonight … 1 more tonight … Lasix?
May 3, 2005 at 8:35 pm
16% probability of scoring, now…
May 3, 2005 at 8:36 pm
C’mon … we ALL wanted to tar & feather the guy and run him out of town after his last start … let’s not lose sight of the big picture … this guy is NOT GOOD! … is he?
May 3, 2005 at 8:36 pm
WOW! He destroyed that baseball.
May 3, 2005 at 8:36 pm
Boom goes the dynamite. Klesko is back.
May 3, 2005 at 8:37 pm
Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!
Tie ballgame.
May 3, 2005 at 8:37 pm
We knew when we got Redding that he had the ability. He just wasn’t performing.
May 3, 2005 at 8:38 pm
Welcome, Lance.
May 3, 2005 at 8:38 pm
16% based on what? The ERT says 27% per inning … right?
May 3, 2005 at 8:38 pm
That woke up the crowd.
May 3, 2005 at 8:39 pm
LM: Redding was a very highly regarded prospect in the Houston system coming up alongside Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, and he’s still only 27. There is some upside here. At the very least, I think he’s earned himself another start.
May 3, 2005 at 8:39 pm
16% with one out and none on, unless I mis-read the chart.