first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Redding (0-4, 7.94 ERA) vs Jamey Wright (1-2, 6.85 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine
Damian Jackson, recalled to replace last night’s hero Adam Hyzdu, who has been DFA’d, gets the start at shortstop. Call it the Ducksnorts curse. I’ll try not to put Jake Peavy’s name in a headline anytime soon.
Speaking of curses, I can deny it no more. And so I appeal to the man himself:
A Humble Request to the Grand Wizard Valdezmort to Remove His Wicked Curse
Izzy, Izzy – oh how we long for thee;
Izzy, Izzy – oh what mystery lies beneath your curse?
Who foresaw that all who followed you would be worse?
Izzy, is he – Valdes or Valdez?
Who knew the loss of mediocrity
Would lead to such great travesty?
We have suffered through Sterling, Justin, Tank, and now Redding;
Where in Hades is our fifth starter heading?
Come what May, you’ve made us pay
In ways we’re all regretting.
Izzy, Izzy – who would have guessed
That among all others you were the best,
Blessed as you were with run support
And a curious reluctance to pitch inside?
From this truth we cannot hide:
Despite an ERA well over five,
The Padres’ bats did come alive
When each fifth day you toed the slab
And saved us from our drab existence,
Rewarding us with your persistence
At winning games despite our insistence
That it was all just smoke and mirrors.
Izzy, Izzy – with you we tripped the light craptastic,
But since you left, we’ve gone quite spastic;
So now we implore thee, in truly awful verse,
Please remove your wicked curse
That has our fifth starter in reverse.
We beg of thee, please set us free
And we shall speak no further ill of you
Than if you’d pitched like Vida Blue.
193 Comments
Damnit, Geoff.
Redding is falling behind everyone.
Okay, so we’re only four batters into the game.
Richard: I hope that was a good damnit.
It’s 3-0 if we’re at Coors. Hawpe got all of that one.
Keeping track of “expected runs before/after each AB.” I’ll post after each inning.
Sweet. I look forward to it.
Roberts steals second. Looked to me like he might’ve been picked off just before that pitch.
For the Rockies:
Batter – Before – After
1 – 0.49 – 0.88
2 – 0.88 – 0.69
3 – 0.69 – 0.92
4 – 0.92 – 0.44
5 – 0.44 – 0.00
What a play. Very nice.
Klesko is battling…
Klesko struck out twice. Once swinging, then looking.
Batter – Before – After
Roberts – 0.49 – 1.13
Loretta – 1.13 – 0.69
Giles – 0.69 – 0.33
Nevin – 0.33 – 0.61
Klesko – 0.61 – 0.00
DFA?
Klesko clearly went around on that 2-2 pitch.
Richard: How are you calculating expected runs?
Oops, sorry: DFA = designated for assignment.
Homer Greene. Blech.
Nichols’s Expectedd Runs Table.
Why didn’t Roberts score on the Nevin hit?
Nevin hit a grounder up the middle. Second baseman Gonzalez made a diving stop and fired to the plate.
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/datasets/expectedruns.html
It was a damn fine play, too.
Batter – Before – After
Holliday – 0.49 – 0.26
Greene – 0.26 – 1.26
Gonzalez – 1.26 – 1.10
Wright – 1.10 – 1.23
Sullivan – 1.23 – 0.00
1 Run Scored.
Correction:
Sullivan – 1.23 – 1.00
Cory Sullivan is an interesting story … “old” guy makes team based on good season in minors and impressive performance in ST … how’s he look?
Dodger’s down 1-0 to ‘Nats
Sorry for the apostrophe in Dodger’s
Batter – Before – After
Hernandez – 0.49 – 0.26
Burroughs – 0.26 – 0.52
Jackson – 0.52 – 0.00
That was just a nice play.
After two innings, the Padres have “squandered” 1.65 runs.
Sullivan looks like he can play a little. He was one of the guys who ruined Opening Day for the Pads, wasn’t he?
I find it interesting that sacrifice bunts reduce your expected runs scored.
Someone should remind DJ that you shouldn’t try to snag a ball with the heel of the glove.
Error Damian Jackson. Pads lead the league with 20 errors.
Redding really can’t afford his defense doubling the offense’s odds of scoring.
Brian Sweeney. That’s who I forgot.
Batter – Before – After
Barmes – 0.49 – 0.26
Helton – 0.26 – 0.52
Hawpe – 0.52 – 0.92
Atkins – 0.92 – 0.00
Very nice DP.
Loretta made a nice turn on that DP. Burroughs’ feed was a little off and handcuffed him a bit. Good recovery.
If you have 1st & 3rd, 0 outs … and the guy on 1st steals 2nd … the odds of scoring go down (from 87% to 86%) … hmmm … but if you do score, you’re likely to score more (1.98 vs 1.75) … I suppose with the 1st/3rd, 0-out scenario, many times the team takes the DP and lets the runner score?
Nice curveball.
Padres #5 starters since Opening Day 2005:
33 GS, 174.2 IP, 6.44 ERA, 11.49 H/9, 2.89 BB/9, 3.71 K/9
The Chicken is in the booth.
What about Brian Sweeney?
1st & 3rd, 0 outs : 1.75
2nd & 3rd, 0 outs : 1.98
Looks like you mean “since Opening Day 2004″ …
Batter – Before – After
Redding – 0.49 – 0.26
Roberts – 0.26 – 0.10
Loretta – 0.10 – 0.33
Giles – 0.33 – 0.00
Damn that shift.
‘Nats go up 2-0 on Dodgers … Gi’nts up 1-0 on D-backs …
Yep, you are correct. Since Opening Day 2004.
Sullivan makes a great diving effort on Loretta’s ball. Ack, Giles hit that up the middle. Why was the shorstop there?
LM, what were you looking at when you came up with those numbers?
Nevermind…
“If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the Chicken?” Ugh, that’s terrible.
LynchMob: I wrote a really wretched poem asking Ismael Valdez to remove his curse on our fifth starter. I tried to inlude all who have tried to fill his shoes, and I forgot to mention Sweeney.
The damned Giles shift, Geoff.
The AFLAC trivia question from the Rockies broadcast: Who is the only Padre to lead the league in home runs?
Mud reveals that he once donned the Bernie the Brewer mascot suit.
Is it me, or is Redding all of a sudden looking good? That last fastball was 93 mph and unhittable.
Batter – Before – After
Holliday – 0.49 – 0.26
Greene – 0.26 -0.10
Gonzalez – 0.10 – 0.00
He made Gonzalez look bad. Or maybe Gonzalez is bad. meh
In the table that I posted the URL previously … it says that if situation = 1st+3rd,0-outs, then the “Prob > 0″ (= “the probability that a team will score at least one run in that inning”) is 0.870 … but for 2nd+3rd,0-outs, it’s 0.860.
Nick: My first guess (Cammy) was wrong, but my second guess was right.
Nick, McGriff.
When did Sweeney try to fill Valdez’ shoes???
Khalil got HBP in his first AB tonight with Elsinore. Thankfully, I assume not on the hand because he’s still in the game.
I was thinking McGriff too. Didn’t Sheff come close that year as well? To bb-ref I go…
Redding through 4 innings: 57 pitches, 41 strikes; 8 GB, 2 FB. Not bad.
McGriff is right … see http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/HR_leagues.shtml for details
LM: Sweeney started Oct. 2 last year at Arizona: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.
Brian Fuentes was the rat at Chuck E. Cheese. That’s good stuff.
Batter – Before – After
Nevin – 0.49 – 0.26
Klesko – 0.26 – 0.10
Hernandez – 0.10 – 0.23
Burroughs – 0.23 – 0.00
I’d rather not see players smiling when they’re losing.
That Aflac commercial just ain’t right.
Oh, that Sweeney … I was getting my Sweeney’s confused …
Khalil strikes out in AB #2.
Batter – Before – After
Wright – 0.49 – 0.26
Sullivan – 0.26 – 0.10
Barmes – 0.10 – 0.00
Redding is looking really good.
Tony’s SDSU squad is in a close one with Fullerton on ESPN2. 3-3 in the bottom of the 10th, CSUF with 2 runners on.
Redding’s ERA for the year has fallen to sub-7.00 levels. heh
Damian Jackson’s numbers at AAA Portland = ..353/.477/.647 in 64 PAs … en fuego!
Is that like the 10th time a Pads pitcher has screwed up a sac bunt this year? Seems like it…
That was ugly.
Perhaps Bochy should consider PH’ing earlier for the #5 guy …
Redding hasn’t thrown 70 pitches, LM.
AZ puts a 2-spot on the board vs Gi’nts … now up 2-1 …
I wish they’d show a camera angle from centerfield instead of all this other crap.
So? What are the chances that he gets pulled in the next 1/2 inning? And what was the “opportunity cost” of not PH’ing in that situation?
Have DJ run here? … try some small ball?
Back from a bowl of pasta. So, is this the most unlikely pitchers’ duel or what?
Loretta gets hit on the front pantleg.
Well, so much for the curse of Valdez…let’s see if this can end the curse of Giles’s bat
Giles vs Wright: .450/.656/.650 in 20 AB coming into tonight’s game.
Giles grounds a 3-1 pitch to first, inning over. Ugh.
Batter – Before – After
Jackson – 0.49 – 0.88
Redding – 0.88 – 0.52
Running: Jackson 0.69
Roberts – 0.69 – 0.33
Loretta – 0.33 – 0.44
Giles – 0.44 – 0.00
Damn. You don’t pull a pitcher who has only thrown 68 pitches and given up only one hard hit ball, just so you can have a guy who isn’t good enough to start in the field hit with a man on first.
Redding is reminiscent of Eaton.
Redding’s got a nice breaking ball tonight.
Batter – Before – After
Helton – 0.49 – 0.26
Hawpe – 0.26 – 0.10
Atkins – 0.10 – 0.00
Redding is looking down right un-hittable. He has good, good movement on his fastball.
OMG, that was a beautiful sequence to Atkins.
Wow, where has this been all year?
Humberto who? (not that I cared in the first place, but damn)
Redding has given up A LOT more than just 1 hard hit ball … just not tonight
… yet!
Redding through 6: 85 pitches, 60 strikes; 9 GB, 5 FB.
Khalil pops out in AB 3.
OT … have you guys noticed what David Dellucci’s doing for the Rangers? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5823 … 24 walks in ~73 PAs going into tonight … 1 more tonight … Lasix?
16% probability of scoring, now…
C’mon … we ALL wanted to tar & feather the guy and run him out of town after his last start … let’s not lose sight of the big picture … this guy is NOT GOOD! … is he?
WOW! He destroyed that baseball.
Boom goes the dynamite. Klesko is back.
Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!
Tie ballgame.
We knew when we got Redding that he had the ability. He just wasn’t performing.
Welcome, Lance.
16% based on what? The ERT says 27% per inning … right?
That woke up the crowd.
LM: Redding was a very highly regarded prospect in the Houston system coming up alongside Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, and he’s still only 27. There is some upside here. At the very least, I think he’s earned himself another start.
16% with one out and none on, unless I mis-read the chart.
At 27, Geoff, these are his peak years.
Hey Lance, nice home run call!
Redding had a 3.68 ERA for the Astros over 32 starts in 2003. That’s his upside. I don’t mean he’ll be an ace but he could be a solid guy at the back end.
Oh, I thought you were implying 16% for the rest of the game … my mistake …
Agree with Geoff … nice home run call, Lance … can you do it again soon?
Didn’t Nevin steal a base earlier?
I wasn’t disagreeing. I was just saying that he’s entering his prime years.
But what about the tar & feathers? Is that “all in the past now”??? His incoming ERA was 7.94 … I can’t forget about that … this is Todd & the Todd’lers we’re talking about at the plate, don’t forget!
Batter – Before – After
Nevin – 0.49 – 0.26
Klesko – 0.26 – 1.26
Hernandez – 1.26 – 1.10
Burroughs – 1.10 – 1.23
Jackson – 1.23 – 1.00
That was one long AB to Jackson…
Yahoo says “S. Burroughs singled to left” … is that redundant? Man, sorry about being so negative tonight … Redding has had that effect on me for a while now
What’s wrong with singling to left?
Wright’s now at 89 pitches … due up 4th … if Redding doesn’t mow ‘em down 1-2-3, I’ll bet we see a PH …
… and I’m hoping we see a PH for Padres to lead off the bottom of the 7th … I’ll take 7 IP to the bank …
Gotcha Richard, on the upside.
Mr. Snappy, oh my!
Todd and the Toddlers have been hitting pretty well this year. Two years ago, Redding had a 3.68 ERA over an entire season.
Nothing wrong with singling to left … but isn’t that all he can do now? Well, he did HR the other day … how about a double into the RCF gap once in a while?
Okay, that ball was well hit. Wrong part of the park.
Yes, Nevin did steal a base. Uncontested.
Getting on-base 40% of the time is good enough for me, LM.
I think Redding’s gotta come out, now. His pitch-count is up and there’s no reason to potentially ruin what was a very solid night.
Burroughs is currently hitting .338. If he keeps that up (a *monumental* if), it’s Ichiro at 3B.
Did you see that guy catch the ball while holding a child in his other arm? Nice.
Batter – Before – After
Holliday – 0.49 – 0.26
Greene – 0.26 – 0.10
Gonzalez – 0.10 – 0.00
Wow, did you see that catch by the fan? Kid cradled under his right arm, snags the ball with his left hand.
I’m not impressed with 6 walks in 83 PAs … dude has 1 double in 83 PAs … .377 SLG … yikes!
Don’t get me wrong, I’m rootin’ for him BIG TIME! The Padres NEED him to HIT … more than a few “single to left”s …
I’ll do my part, guys, if one of our Pads will cooperate.
Good to be back, BTW. Been in New Orleans for Jazzfest. Then again, it’s our ninth New Orleans trip in the last sixteen months, so maybe we don’t need Jazzfest as an excuse!
I don’t buy into the 27-28 peak, at least for pitchers. They’re much more random than hitters.
Redding is done. His line: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. 95 pitches, 67 strikes. That works.
Wright’s breaking ball is giving Roberts fits tonight.
Too bad Wright wasn’t forced to come up to bat last half inning.
Ichiro??? Ichiro! has 5 doubles + 2 triples + 2 HRs … no, SB != Ichiro! @ 3B … I/we wish …
Leave Sweeney to pitch?
Geez, they’re abusing Todd Greene tonight
If Burroughs hits .338, he’ll stay in the line-up. He still won’t have Ichiro!’s speed or throwing arm (which is astounding! Little bastard thinks he’s the Japanese Billy Wagner.).
The doubles have to come, followed by the dingers.
I think they will. Remember, he’s still younger than most rookies.
And Mark Sweeney makes yet another stride toward Rickey’s SB record!
I hear ya, LM. Just remember:
Burroughs: 0.65 BB/PA, .083 ISO
Ichiro: 0.65 BB/PA, .105 ISO
The difference is batting average. If Burroughs can seriously keep his average even in the .315-.320 range, he’ll be a factor.
Why is Brian still batting third? I just realized he’s still there.
136 comments.
Granted, they’re all from just a few guys, but it’s a start.
One of these days we’ll all watch a game in the same room.
Nevin and Sweeney stealing a base in the same game? That’s not something you want on your resume if you’re the opposing catcher.
Chuck E. Cheese is pitching. 2-0 to Giles.
I don’t want to see Giles swing…
Damnit.
Ug, Dog’s put up another 2-spot … now up 4-2 on ‘Nats …
Those are not good 3-1 hacks.
He hit that ball pretty hard, Geoff.
Stupid Washington.
Nevin singled in his only at-bat against Witasick. Nevin vs Fuentes would have been fun: .800/.889/1.600 in 9 PA.
Yeah, I guess that last one wasn’t so bad.
Batter – Before – After
Sweeney – 0.49 – 0.88
Roberts – 0.88 – 0.52
Running: Sweeney 0.69
Loretta – 0.69 – 0.92
Giles – 0.92 – 0.44
Nevin – 0.44 – 0.00
That was crap.
And Nevin continues to be MIA with RISP.
I still think Bochy should flip Giles and Klesko in the lineup.
SD St’s Tony Clark gets GWRBI for D-backs over Giants tonight … now hitting .342 for the season …
I like the Giles/Klesko flip idea … maybe even move Giles below Hernandez until he earns a trip back up the order …
Batter – Before – After
Miles – 0.49 – 0.26
Sullivan – 0.26 – 0.52
Barmes – 0.52 – 0.00
That happened in a heartbeat.
Geez, that was fast. I want to see the replay.
Ah, home field advantage.
9 pitches … nice work Aki!
2.1% less likely to score, now.
Witasick almost threw that away.
Kevin Brown: 24 IP, 0-4, 8.25 ERA, $15.7M
Tim Redding: 24 IP, 0-4, 6.00 ERA, $750k
I like our guy better.
That’s great, Geoff.
WTF? Are we *trying* to lose?
Khalil didn’t finish his game @ Lake Elsinore???
Just ran themselves out of the inning. 20.1% less likely to score.
That was incredibly stupid. Incredibly.
DJ is the man! Maybe it wasn’t Hyzdu, but it’s the guy who occupies that roster spot.
Yankees: 11-16, $205.9M
Padres: 12-14, $62.9M
And, Tony Womack isn’t starting in LF for us.
DJ! D. Jackson doubled to deep left, S. Burroughs scored
Seems like a good place to get Fick an AB! Tell me what you see!
Batter – Before – After
Klesko – 0.49 – 0.88
Hernandez – 0.88 – 0.69
Burroughs – 0.69 – 0.92
Jackson – 0.33 – 1.33
Fick – 1.33 – 1.00
What was Bochy thinking?
After 8 innings, Padres have “squandered” 5.02 runs and the Rockies 4.58 runs.
Garcia is in at short…
That was a heck of an AB by Helton.
I could hear the bells all the way up here in Oregon
Damn, Helton can hit. Not news, but damn.
Gets Hawpe with the icky.
‘Nats get one back … now down just 4-3 to Dog’s …
Atkins has never faced Hoffman. Trevor’s ahead 0-2.
Sacrifice would have actually been the right call with the man on 2nd…
Gets Atkins with the icky.
Holliday 0 for 1 career against Hoffman.
Richard … how are you calc’ing “squandared”? Sum of net for each batter?
From afar … looks like Todd can handle the icky … but the Todd’lers can’t
Trevor gets save #399. Curse of Valdezmort removed. Pads go for the sweep tomorrow afternoon.
Woo-hoo!
Batter – Before – After
Helton – 0.49 – 1.13
Hawpe – 1.13 – 0.69
Atkins – 0.69 – 0.33
Holliday – 0.33 – 0.00
After Helton, it wasn’t even fair.
Rather than removal of curse, I fear something like the groundhog seeing his shadow … it portends 6 more weeks of “winter”
Ack, sorry, again, for the negative … nice W tonight … good conversation!!!
Oh, one last try … how’d Fick look in his AB? I know, I know … the ultimate “small sample size” … just curious …
Lynchy, I’m taking the highest Expected Runs from any point in the inning and subtracting runs scored from it, then adding up the innings. For instance, the Rockies squandered 1.13 runs in the 9th.
I thought Fick looked better than I remember him looking last year. I was far from impressed last year, though.
Thanks … and the ER info was interesting!
LM: No need to apologize; we all want to see the Padres kick ass – your contributions are always welcome!
Richard: Thanks for the running ER. That was some fascinating stuff. Are you going to post tonight’s final numbers over at FF?
Anyway, thanks again to all for the chat this evening. Pads win! Pads win!
I think I’ll actually link over to this thread for now. Hopefully tomorrow, I’ll get the numbers up on http://sdpf.blogspot.com/