Me, Elsewhere: More Spring Sappiness

by Geoff Young on Mar 31, 2010 (5) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times talks about why I love baseball. As I mentioned the other day, I can’t help myself; this time of the year always gets to me.

I used to fight it, but no more. Like ear hair and the curious compulsion to wear bright shorts with dark socks, Opening Day sappiness is simply a part of the aging process that I’ve learned to accept.

From the article:

In 1978 (May 9 or July 28, don’t remember which; I just know that Gene Tenace homered twice), I witnessed my first baseball game and it was good. The usual father-and-son cliches apply, although I don’t know that it “brought us together” so much as put us physically in the same space at the same time. Still, there is something to be said for that, especially when you are 9 years old and prone to worshiping people you don’t really know.

What struck me about that first game is that it was literally timeless. My father had taken me to football games before, so I knew how those worked, and at some point I asked him what quarter it was. What I meant was, “When is this thing going to end?” (I had the attention span of a 9-year-old, which was more appropriate then than it is now).

Tenace has always been one of my favorite players. There are three reasons for this:

  • He’s associated with my first baseball memory.
  • His given name is Fiore Gino Tennaci, which just rocks.
  • He’s a prototypical stathead beast that produced despite a perpetually low batting average.

To that last point, here are the 10 highest OPS+ in big-league history for guys who hit .250 or lower (min. 5000 PA). These are some good players:

                 OPS+  BA    PA
Gene Tenace      136 .241  5525
Adam Dunn        132 .249  5417
Jim Wynn         128 .250  8010
Mickey Tettleton 121 .241  5745
Darrell Evans    119 .248 10737
Howard Johnson   117 .249  5715
Dwayne Murphy    115 .246  5242
Dave Kingman     115 .236  7429
Gorman Thomas    114 .225  5486
Darrell Porter   113 .247  6570

You know who reminds me of Tenace on this year’s Padres? Nobody.

Don’t worry, be sappy. Read the article.

So Close, No Matter How Far

by Geoff Young on Mar 30, 2010 (2) Comments

The tricky thing about spring training is figuring out what means anything. I guess that’s no different from the rest of life, but when someone tells me that Chase Headley has a boatload of RBI in the Cactus League, what am I supposed to do? “How nice for him,” I could say as I smile, pretending that I give a rat’s… that I care.

Then there’s the whole emphasis on speed and baserunning meme that has infected camp this spring. It’s fun, and it gives us something to watch, but I doubt we’ll be calling Adrian Gonzalez “Go-Go” anytime soon, unless we develop a Daltreyesque speech impediment.

Still, what else are you going to do in spring? And there are compelling stories — the impression Matt Antonelli and Logan Forsythe have made, the fact that Tim Stauffer apparently has made the staff. Antonelli and Stauffer are easy guys to root for, former first-round picks who fell on hard times and who are trying to resuscitate their careers. Who doesn’t love a good redemption tale?

As for Forsythe, he may play second base, he may play third. That will work itself out in due time. Meanwhile, Padres Assistant General Manager Jason McLeod had some complimentary words for the young man from Arkansas, calling Forsythe “a special defender at third” and noting that when McLeod worked in Boston’s front office, the Red Sox “thought highly of him and almost took him in the first round” of the 2008 draft.

I’ve watched a few games this spring, mostly in fragments as I try to navigate through a life that has become too busy for my taste. The trip to Peoria never materialized on account of Stuff To Do (TM); oh well, there’s always next year. I’ve caught enough of a glimpse to know that this will be a fun team to watch. Kyle Blanks (whom Peter Gammons calls an “office building”) crushed a ball on Monday against the Diamondbacks, and Will Venable’s stroke looks good.

I put no stock into spring training numbers, but I do pay attention to the actions that produce them. I like what I’m seeing from Blanks and Venable. I like what I’ve seen from Mat Latos and Matt Stairs, the latter of whom keeps smoking line drives right at people with gloves attached to their hands.

I liked watching minor-league right-hander Alexis Lara strike out five batters in 1 2/3 innings to close out Monday night’s victory. I liked watching Heath Bell goof around in the dugout and explain to Channel 4′s Jenny Cavnar that he keeps everyone loose until it’s time to get serious. Then he gets serious.

I liked hearing Cavnar ask Opening Day starter Jon Garland about his choice of music on days he pitches. Garland said it varies: Sometimes it’s reggae, sometimes Metallica. (Hey, why not both?) Mostly, though, he plays what pumps up his teammates. I don’t know what something like that means to the bottom line, but it was nice to hear.

You know what else I like? Solid endings. I don’t have one for this piece, but that’s okay because it’s March and we’ve got a long way to go. Enjoy the ride.

Once Upon My Mind: Gwynn, Molitor, Ichiro, and the Optimism of Spring

by Geoff Young on Mar 29, 2010 (6) Comments

I get all nostalgic and sappy this time of year. It’s a stupid thing to do, but I can’t help myself.

Live in the present, right? Okay, most of the time. Today, we’ll indulge a little and revisit the past:

  • Age and Treachery Will Overcome Youth and Skill (March 21, 1998). “While I am willing to concede that some of the increased success of both [Tony] Gwynn and [Paul] Molitor is due to the factors mentioned above, I believe that in both cases they did in fact become much better at an advanced age.” Both men really enjoyed their thirties: Gwynn hit .344/.388/.476 (133 OPS+), while Molitor hit .320/.389/.477 (133 OPS+).
  • Random Musings before Heading to Vegas (March 23, 2002). “I respect the heck out of the work Baseball America does but they missed the boat on the Padres. They’ve picked San Diego to finish fifth in the NL West. How they expect the Rockies to stay out of the cellar, I have no idea.” Let the record show that the Padres finished 66-96, a full seven games behind fourth place Colorado. BA 1, Ducksnorts 0.
  • “Stars of the Future” Game (March 25, 2003). “Khalil Greene looked sluggish at the plate and in the field. He kept trying to pull [Jason] Jacome’s outside slop, with little success. Defensively, Greene made a weak effort on one less-than-stellar throw from the outfield, which allowed a runner to take an extra base. He also failed to go after a foul popup down the left-field line. In fairness, it ended up not being playable, but that didn’t stop Ben Risinger or Vince Faison from trying to chase it down. All in all, it was a pretty down day for Greene. I’ve seen him play much better than that, so I don’t place a lot of stock in what he did Sunday.”
  • Mailbag (March 31, 2004). “No offense to [Ichiro] Suzuki, who really is a great player (as Prospectus points out), but his best season so far in North America would match Gwynn’s 11th best season. There really is no shame in that. But to insinuate that Suzuki is a better player than (or even as good a player as) Gwynn was in his prime is silly.” Suzuki now has nine full big-league seasons under his belt. In 2004, he recorded his highest OPS+ (130). Gwynn beat that total nine times. In fact, his career OPS+ (132) is higher than Ichiro’s best.
  • Projecting Greene (March 27, 2005). “John Sickels has posted his community projections for Khalil Greene. They peg him at .279/.352/.458. Sickels himself expects a slight decrease in power this year due to his home park and looks to 2006 for a breakout. My personal expectation is that Greene is going to shock some folks with numbers around .274/.345/.490.” Let the record show that Greene hit .273/.349/.446. Sickels 1, Ducksnorts 0.
  • Barfield Takes Second (March 28, 2006). “Josh Barfield officially has won the starting second base job for the Padres thanks to a monster spring. Reminiscent of what Khalil Greene did in 2004, Barfield came out and took charge immediately, never letting up until there was no choice but to name him the starter.” Barfield, Greene, Adrian Gonzalez… what an exciting young infield the Padres were going to have. At least they still have Gonzalez; it’s not like he’s headed anywhere.
  • Weekend in Peoria: Everything but the Games (March 29, 2007). “One of the pitchers shagging flies was ex-Padre Chris Oxspring. I have very fond memories of Oxspring from his time with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in ’02. When my wife and I visit the Diamond in Elsinore, we tend to sit directly behind home plate, with the scouts and, often, pitchers who are charting the game. We ran into Oxspring one time there and didn’t really talk to him (he had a job to do), but a couple of young kids did and we were impressed with the way Oxspring handled himself. He charted his pitches, and he also made sure to give his time — cheerfully — to these kids. This is one reason I’ve always wanted to see Oxspring succeed at the big-league level.” Oxspring last pitched in North America for Nashville in 2007. I believe he spent last season in Korea and pitched reasonably well (I don’t read the language, so I’m not sure about that last part).
  • Sportswrappin’ (March 28, 2008). My second TV appearance… “I cited the continued development of Chase Headley as the most exciting item of the spring and said that we’d see him at some point during the season, but that the left field job probably was Scott Hairston’s for now (we taped this on March 15). I also noted that the Padres wouldn’t bring Headley up as a stopgap solution — an everyday job would need to open up for him, and given the age and injury concerns of Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles, this could happen sooner rather than later.” Let the record show that Headley did take over as starting left fielder in June 2008. Yes, I finally got one right!

There you go. Don’t we all feel old now…

Friday Links (26 Mar 10)

by Geoff Young on Mar 26, 2010 (2) Comments

Links, links, links, links, links, links, baked beans, links, links, links, and links…

  • Talking with Bill James: Part 1 (Cincinnati Sports News) C. Trent Rosecrans chats with James about the relative merits of Barry Larkin and Tony Gwynn, among many other things. James responds to the question of whether we understand baseball any more now than we did in 1905: “Absolutely not. Our knowledge is much larger and our ignorance is much larger.” Part 2 includes this money quote from James on the tired scouts/analysts dichotomy: “It is a stupid debate to have. Exactly. I sit beside scouts at games all the time and we’re trying to do the same thing by different routes.” [h/t Hardball Times]
  • Categorizing Starting Pitchers By K, BB, and GB Rates: 2007-2009 (Baseball Analysts) Rich Lederer takes his annual look at pitchers.
  • Fifth Starters Don’t Exist (FanGraphs). Speaking of pitchers, Marc Hulet makes an interesting claim and then follows it up with a modest proposal.
  • San Diego Padres 2010 Projections: Infield (Friar Forecast) Daniel offers up some guesses. Outfielders are here.
  • Gammons: Gonzalez staying focused (MLB.com). Adrian Gonzalez loves being asked about trade rumors: “I realize everyone has his job to do and wants to get in his own question, but sometimes when I’ve answered the same thing three, four and five times, I wonder why they can’t all ask it together. I give the same answer.”
  • Ten things I didn’t know about starting rotations (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe informs us, among other things, that the ’77 Padres had horrendous starting pitching.
  • Cabrera tapping into potential (Padres.com). Hitting coach Randy Ready on Everth Cabrera: “He’s got a lot of tools. We’re trying to simplify all facets of the game where he’s comfortable.” Bonus points to Corey for referencing Fangraphs in his article.
  • Year makes big difference in arms race (U-T). Bud Black on Wade LeBlanc, who is having a terrific spring but who probably will start the year at Triple-A Portland: “He’s pitching aggressively. We preach fastball command. And Wade’s realizing the importance of that … it’s imperative to his success.”
  • Moorad: No money worries for group (U-T). Jeff Moorad’s group now owns 50% of the Padres. Looking for the new boss to change Petco Park? Not going to happen, according to Moorad: “Our ballpark is a beautiful and unique facility that offers strategic advantages. In the past, the Padres have failed to take advantage of that. We’re building a team that features speed, defense and starting pitching to take advantage of Petco Park. The last thing we’re going to do is change that.” He also expects that “the payroll will eventually grow to more than $70 million,” with the key word there being “eventually.”
  • Adams kills hitters with arm, teammates with wit (NC Times). Fun fluff piece on reliever Mike Adams.
  • Community Forecast (The Book). Quoth Tango: “As I did last year, I am using the Wisdom of Crowds approach to determine how often each player on your team is expected to play. Unlike my past surveys, this one is available in real-time! Select your team, then choose how you think each player will be used.” You can view the Padres here and submit your guesses here. Wackiness will ensue.

That’s all for now. Happy Friday!

Me, Elsewhere: Padres Preview at THT

by Geoff Young on Mar 24, 2010 (11) Comments

It’s that time of year again. My annual Five Questions article is up at Hardball Times. One of my questions focuses on the new ownership group and what it is doing to regain fan trust:

Jeff Moorad and President and COO Tom Garfinkel have come in and expressed a commitment to the organization, the fans, and the city. They have made themselves available to the people and demonstrated a willingness to listen and improve where possible.

The previous regime had trouble with that aspect of the job. Sandy Alderson, as brilliant a baseball mind as you’ll find, showed little patience for details that didn’t affect the bottom line. He and his group succeeded in many areas, but never really connected with a fan base that sought a kinder, gentler leader. San Diegans wanted to be addressed as equals in a partnership, not as subjects of an oligarchy. That was not the style of Moores and Alderson, and one got the sense toward the end that ownership and fans regarded each other as necessary inconveniences.

The new ownership group has made strides in restoring hope among disillusioned fans. Moorad and Garfinkel have talked a good game, but talk must be backed up by action. They have taken some small steps in that direction: lowering the price of beer, changing the start time of weekday afternoon games, and other cosmetic changes that may not make a difference to the bottom line but that tell San Diegans, “Hey, we’re listening and we’re trying to improve your experience.”

I also offer thoughts on Chase Headley, Mat Latos, Randy Ready, and which of the Padres young players will emerge in 2010. Enjoy the article…

IVIE 2010: Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Mar 23, 2010 (5) Comments

We covered Padres hitters yesterday. As promised, here are the 2010 IVIE projections for pitchers:

Starters

                 N    IP  ERA
Jon Garland     22 206.1 4.00
Kevin Correia   22 191.1 4.15
Clayton Richard 21 165.1 4.31
Chris Young     23 149.2 3.91
Mat Latos       22 134.1 3.78
Wade LeBlanc    20  88.2 4.51
Tim Stauffer    19  88.1 4.44
Cesar Carrillo  11  47.0 4.43
Cesar Ramos     11  36.2 4.67
Ernesto Frieri	 9  25.2 4.56

Comments:

  • Our respondents gave Garland a very tight range of IP (175 to 246) and ERA (3.65 to 4.44)
  • Correia’s projection seems a shade optimistic to me, especially the innings
  • Richard is the anti-Garland (we have him at 42 to 210 IP, 3.14 to 6.12 ERA)
  • One respondent thought Young would pitch 267 IP; remove that, and his projected total slips to 144.1 IP
  • I’d add half a run to Latos’ ERA
  • LeBlanc’s line looks about right to me, although he might be a nice sleeper
  • One respondent, presumably thinking of something else at the time, put Carrillo at 110 IP, 3.81 ERA
  • If given the opportunity, Ramos is capable of much worse

If the Padres front five can put up those kinds of numbers, they might sniff .500 this year. I just don’t see more than one, maybe two, doing what we’ve projected them to do. Wouldn’t it be nice to be wrong about that?

Relievers

                 N   IP   ERA
Edward Mujica   19  76.1 3.93
Luke Gregerson  20  73.1 3.29
Heath Bell      20  70.0 2.77
Mike Adams      20  65.0 2.54
Joe Thatcher    19  53.1 3.47
Luis Perdomo    15  49.1 4.50
Adam Russell    17  44.4 4.16
Ryan Webb       17  40.2 4.24
Aaron Poreda    16  40.1 3.92
Radhames Liz    10  24.1 4.83

Comments:

  • A repeat performance might be asking a bit much from Gregerson
  • Three respondents gave Adams a sub-2.00 ERA; can he stay healthy?
  • Perdomo’s projection surprises me; I don’t see a big-league pitcher here
  • Apparently I’m not the only one who has trouble telling the difference between Russell and Webb (although the Padres seem to like Russell)
  • Poreda’s projection is proudly sponsored by crack, helping people make bad decisions for a quarter of a century; extra credit to the person that put him at 78.2 IP, 2.30 ERA
  • Liz was voted most likely to follow Eulogio de la Cruz to Japan

Incidentally, I forgot to poll for Sean Gallagher. I had him written in my notebook (80 IP, 4.72 ERA) but somehow missed his name when setting up the surveys. If you’d like to make a guess for Gallagher, feel free to leave it in the comments.

IVIE 2010: Hitters

by Geoff Young on Mar 22, 2010 (10) Comments

The people have spoken. Ladies and gentlemen, I present the 2010 IVIE projections for hitters:

Catchers and Infielders

                  N  PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Adrian Gonzalez  25 614 .289 .401 .545
Chase Headley    25 601 .277 .355 .444
Everth Cabrera   24 591 .271 .353 .376
David Eckstein   21 430 .259 .328 .341
Nick Hundley     24 382 .252 .316 .413
Jerry Hairston   18 282 .264 .330 .377
Yorvit Torrealba 21 213 .251 .310 .385
Oscar Salazar    16 178 .269 .327 .429
Matt Antonelli   10 170 .250 .316 .370
Dusty Ryan       14  57 .249 .300 .348

Comments:

  • Three respondents gave Gonzalez fewer than 400 PA; one put his line at .288/.307/.465, which is basically Joe Carter
  • We are counting on Cabrera to succeed; nobody guessed fewer than 475 PA
  • One respondent gave Eckstein a line of .275/.355/.445; I guess some guys don’t find their power stroke until age 35
  • A downside to anonymity is the occasional .325/.335/.565 projection for Hundley; without that, his line is .249/.315/.406
  • Salazar should beat his projection

Outfielders

                  N  PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Kyle Blanks      24 517 .273 .357 .500
Will Venable     21 487 .271 .342 .437
Scott Hairston   19 442 .274 .339 .476
Tony Gwynn       21 373 .264 .335 .353
Aaron Cunningham 13 139 .251 .322 .385
Matt Stairs      12 111 .231 .346 .420
Chad Huffman      8  95 .260 .299 .373
Mike Baxter       5  42 .240 .323 .369

Comments:

  • Only three respondents had Blanks reaching 600 PA; also, for as much as I think his power will play just fine at Petco Park, that SLG is about 40-50 points too high for my taste
  • One respondent gave Venable a .423 OBP; take that away, and his projected OBP drops to .338
  • Hairston’s BA and OBP are too high
  • Gwynn’s projection represents his upper limit

We are an optimistic bunch, aren’t we? It’s spring; I would expect no less. We’ll run the pitchers tomorrow.

Friday Links (19 Mar 10)

by Geoff Young on Mar 19, 2010 (1) Comments

We’re a little behind, so some of these might be stale. Just pop ‘em in the oven, they’ll be crispy again in no time…

The Present

  • Team looks to Ready to end high turnover at batting coach (NC Times). Good luck with that when folks want a scapegoat for the fact that Petco Park is an extreme pitchers park. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Venable back in the swing (U-T). Bill Center notes the the role Will Venable’s mother played in getting him back into baseball. It’s amazing to think that Venable didn’t play at all in his senior year in high school or freshman year in college.
  • 2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League West (Baseball-Reference) Neil Paine has the Padres at 76-86, which seems just about right to me.
  • Blanks owes much to Padres scout (Padres.com). Corey Brock profiles everyone’s favorite 42nd-round pick. Quoth Kyle Blanks: “I don’t think that I would have done very well had I signed out of high school … and I don’t think I would have been where I’m at now.”
  • Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – San Diego (Fangraphs). Interesting assessment from Jack Moore. He underestimates Venable (that happens a lot, I used to do it myself) and completely misreads Jon Garland, saying that Garland might “give nothing of value this season,” which is unlikely given the right-hander’s track record of durability and reliability. Moore correctly identifies the bullpen as a strength.
  • Organizational Rankings: #27 – San Diego (Fangraphs). Dave Cameron confirms what we already knew: “Patience will be the key for Padre fans.”

The Future

  • Previewing the 2010 Portland Beavers: Batting (Friar Forecast). Ben gives us the lowdown. I am interested to see what happens with attempts to turn Logan Forsythe into a second baseman and Mitch Canham into Robert Fick. Ben also looks at Portland’s starters and relievers.
  • Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – San Diego (Fangraphs). Marc Hulet offers his thoughts. I agree with much of this, although he misses the boat a little here: “The club’s best young offensive player is Kyle Blanks but he’s not really well-suited to the park.” In fact, there is no park that can contain Blanks. His power will play absolutely anywhere.
  • Pumped about Pads’ young blood (U-T). Bud Black on pitching prospect Simon Castro: “I really like what I’ve seen of him. He not only has stuff, he knows how to use it and he wants to learn.”
  • Toy-toting prospect not playing around (U-T). Fun article about Aaron Cunningham, who talks, among other things, about playing winter ball in Venezuela: “Games down there are like a big party. The fans are cool, unbelievable. You score a run and they throw their beers in the air. The music’s nonstop…. It was my first time down there, and it was a serious trip, crazy. But I learned to respect the game more. I saw how they live down there, how blessed we are up here, and I learned not to take anything for granted.”
  • It’s clicking for Antonelli (U-T). Tim Sullivan profiles Matt Antonelli. Interesting quote from Tony Muser, who worked one-on-one with Antonelli in 2009, when the former first-round pick was struggling: “I was expecting some locker rooms torn up. We talked about that. It’s OK to have a temper tantrum. But with his personality, he kept it all in. Everybody complimented him on he’s handling it so good. I didn’t like it. I wanted an emotional reaction. It’s OK to get upset with yourself. It’s OK to want it.” Hey, what’s the worst that could happen? It’s not like you’ll break your hand and have the boss try to stop paying you because of it.
  • Youth is served with Padres’ Decker (Padres.com). Corey highlights young outfielder Jaff Decker. I cannot wait to see Decker at Lake Elsinore this year.

The Past

The Geeky

  • State of sabermetrics: Insights from the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (Hardball Times). Sal Baxamusa recaps the event and slings in some choice nuggets: “Lots of teams have lots of good sabermetricians working for them. A decent number of teams have analytically minded general managers. But in talking with and hearing from various front office personnel, one recurring theme kept coming back: integrating serious, rigorous sabermetric thinking into a formalized decision-making framework is hard.”
  • Odds Are, It’s Wrong (Science News). Speaking of which, Tom Siegfried offers this sobering thought: “Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot.” [h/t Slashdot]
  • Franchise Strengh Index History for All 30 Teams (Baseball Analysts). Sky Andrecheck presents some interesting attendance data.
  • Lidge vs. Pujols: I was in the wrong spot (Morgan Ensberg’s Baseball IQ). Former Padres infielder Morgan Ensberg has a blog. This entry deals with the 2005 playoffs and involves current Padres infielder David Eckstein. Pretty cool to hear the player’s perspective on some of this stuff. [h/t Hardball Times]
  • Spring Training Records Matter, A Little (TSI on Sports). Longtime reader Jay Stokes observes that “it is never a bad thing to have a good record. At worst it says nothing about your regular season, but other years it says you will probably have a decent season”
  • Padres 2010 Potential Milestones (Gaslamp Ball). Who knew Kevin Kouzmanoff was the franchise leader in HBP?

That should keep you suitably unproductive for much of the day. It’s been a long week, you deserve it. I’ll sign a note for you if your boss asks.

Mailbag: Is Oscar Salazar Any Good?

by Geoff Young on Mar 18, 2010 (3) Comments

Reader LynchMob sends us the following:

I’m not an Oscar Salazar fan… can you help me understand how/why he’s going to make the Opening Day roster?

He seems perhaps a good study on the concept of “Replacement Level” players… he seems like he’s got to be below-replacement-level… but if that were true, then the Padres could (and would) replace him, right?

I guess my bottom line is that I’m hoping a player who is at (or above?) “Replacement Level” will come available at the end of ST and Oscar will be replaced by that guy… or that I’m wrong about Oscar.

I’m always making comparisons. It’s how I try to understand the world. If I don’t know what something is, I try to figure out what it might be like. I define things in relation to other things.

Did you ever see that Star Trek: The Next Generation episode where Captain Picard attempts to communicate with a member of another race whose language consists entirely of metaphors? It’s like that, only without space travel and Ashley Judd. (There I go making comparisons again.)

Anyway, once upon a time there was a young right-handed hitter without a real defensive position. His initials were O.S. and he got a brief cup of coffee in his mid-20s before being sent back to the minors for several years, where he put up numbers, forcing an eventual return to the Show. In time, O.S. became a productive member of a big-league bench and enjoyed a nice little career as a role player.

I’m talking about Olmedo Saenz, but the same description may well apply to another player in a few years. Oscar Salazar played eight games with the Detroit Tigers in 2002, then disappeared until 2008, when he resurfaced with the Orioles, for whom he hit .284/.372/.506 in 94 PA.

Salazar got off to a hot start for Baltimore the following year and was traded to the Padres for submarining right-hander Cla Meredith in July. In San Diego, Salazar hit .269/.339/.463 in 121 PA while seeing action at both corner outfield spots, as well as first and second base.

In 271 PA, Salazar owns a career line of .286/.356/.490. Several projection systems like his chances in 2010:

  • Bill James: .293/.341/.476
  • CHONE: .284/.336/.465
  • Marcel: .278/.347/.463

I haven’t compiled IVIE yet, but my personal guess for Salazar is .278/.338/.457, which is more conservative than what many experts predict. Bearing in mind that projections are not the same as reality, and we don’t know how a given player will respond to irregular playing time after having been a starter in the minors, this is a nice skill set.

Salazar can hit. Assuming he adjusts to a bench role, he should be a better version of Edgar Gonzalez. Without knowing off the top of my head what current replacement level values are, I’m pretty confident they’re below what Salazar has accomplished so far at the big-league level and what he is projected to do in the future.

In short, Salazar offers a potent right-handed bat and the ability to play multiple positions, albeit none well enough to merit a full-time job (to say nothing of the fact that it would make no sense for a rebuilding team to let a 31-year-old with minimal big-league experience block younger guys with equally little experience but potentially brighter futures). If the Padres can’t use someone who fits that description, I’ll bet another team could.

Comping Cabrera: Eeyore’s Rebuttal

by Geoff Young on Mar 17, 2010 (9) Comments

I don’t know why I’m so fascinated by Everth Cabrera. He doesn’t figure to be as critical a piece of the eventual puzzle as guys like Kyle Blanks and Mat Latos, but Cabrera’s skill set intrigues me.

Also, there’s the fact that he successfully made the jump from A-ball to the big leagues. We’ve noted that Rafael Furcal followed a similar path. We’ve identified several other players with comparable skill sets, including Pete Rose, Steve Sax, and Chuck Knoblauch. Reader Pat suggested Delino Deshields.

All of these comps make sense on a certain level. However, they also have something in common that potentially distorts the picture: These players were all really good and enjoyed successful careers.

We need a counterexample to show what can go wrong. We need Mike Caruso.

Caruso, part of 1997′s infamous White Flag Trade, became the starting shortstop for the Chicago White Sox in 1998. Like Cabrera, he skipped the high minors and made it look easy:

                A-ball                   MLB
        Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG  Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Caruso   20 617 .311 .365 .416   21 555 .306 .331 .390
Cabrera  21 550 .284 .361 .399   22 438 .255 .342 .361

Caruso’s sophomore campaign didn’t go so well. He hit .250/.280/.297 in 564 PA, then returned to the minors before making a 12-game cameo with the Royals (arguably still the minors) in 2002. Last year, at the ripe old age of 32, Caruso played five games for Newark of the independent Atlantic League.

Although this is only one data point, it’s worth acknowledging. I don’t mean to kill anyone’s buzz about an exciting young player that I happen to like a great deal, but it’s useful to know that there is precedent for someone jumping from A-ball, succeeding initially, and then falling to pieces.

Do I think Cabrera will regress to the extent Caruso did and find himself out of a job by age 25? No. Do I think it could happen? Sure.

Ryan from Padres, Chargers, Illini Blog got me thinking about this topic a while back when he posed the following question:

Is there any indication from Cabrera’s rookie numbers that he won’t end up like [Josh] Barfield? Does the fact he gets on base more often and plays a more marquee position really make him that much more valuable than Josh was after the ’06 season?

I can’t point to any studies, but my suspicion is that Cabrera’s superior on-base skills will help. Barfield succeeded initially despite his inability to discern balls from strikes. He never solved that particular problem and it caught up with him.

Some guys (Vladimir Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano) can hack their way to nice careers. Most people, however, don’t possess their hand-eye coordination or plate coverage. Anecdotally speaking, even the guys who start reasonably strong with such an unrefined approach tend to stagnate (Jose Guillen, Corey Patterson) or fade early (Carlos Baerga, Juan Samuel, Cory Snyder).

But maybe I’m telling myself this because I want Cabrera to be better than Barfield turned out to be. If history has taught us anything, it’s that learning from history is harder than it looks.

That said, Ryan has identified two points (superior on-base skills, greater defensive utility) that should work in Cabrera’s favor going forward. Cabrera was also a year younger than Barfield during their respective rookie seasons. As Bill James demonstrated many years ago (and others have since confirmed), that makes a huge difference.