Prospects from 1996, Revisited – Part 5

by Geoff Young on Jul 07, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

5. Win Shares by Letter Grade

[This is a continuing series that will run each Thursday throughout the 2005 season. Start here for full details.]

One question we might like to answer is how many win shares were earned by players in each grade level during years 1996-2004. John Sickels assigned a grade to each prospect on a scale from A to C-. The charts that follow give the number of players for each grade, the total number of win shares garnered by players for each grade, the average number of win shares per player for each grade, and the number of players in various groupings of win shares for each grade. We’ll look first at all players, then at hitters only, and finally at pitchers only.

All Players
No Grd WS WS/player WS range
0 1-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201+
12 A 1333 111.08 0 5 1 1 2 3
14 A- 1064 76.00 2 4 3 2 3 0
32 B+ 1485 46.41 6 12 9 5 0 0
59 B 1482 25.12 19 30 7 2 1 0
76 B- 1530 20.13 30 36 7 3 0 0
95 C+ 1353 14.24 49 36 7 3 0 0
129 C 1670 12.95 72 46 6 4 1 0
98 C- 932 9.51 64 28 5 1 0 0
515 tot 10849 21.07 242 197 45 21 7 3
Key: No, number of players assigned a particular letter grade; Grd, letter grade assigned by John Sickels in his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook; WS, total number of win shares for all players within a certain grade specification; WS/player, average number of win shares earned through 2004 per player; WS range, total number of players within a specified range of win shares.

And here is a graphical representation of the number of players per WS range by grade. The number of players is given as a percentage (e.g., 65% of players assigned a grade of C- have not earned a single win share).

Grade vs Win Shares (All Players)

No real surprises here. Pretty much a linear progression; the most highly regarded prospects earned the most win shares, and so on down the line. Also, the higher the grade, the better the chances of making it big (101+ win shares, an admittedly arbitrary mark). Of the 26 players graded at A or A-, 11 (42.3%) have amassed 101 or more win shares. That’s the exact same number that have accumulated 101 or more win shares among 167 players graded at B+, B, or B- (just 6.6%). And the 322 players graded at C+, C, or C-? Only 9 (2.8%) of them have 101+ win shares.

Hitters
No Grd WS WS/player WS range
0 1-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201+
8 A 1064 133.00 0 3 0 0 2 3
11 A- 961 87.36 2 2 2 2 3 0
20 B+ 996 49.80 2 9 5 4 0 0
38 B 1160 30.53 11 18 6 2 1 0
38 B- 1157 30.45 11 18 6 3 0 0
46 C+ 893 19.41 21 19 3 3 0 0
70 C 1061 15.16 40 22 4 3 1 0
55 C- 682 12.40 36 14 4 1 0 0
286 tot 7974 27.88 123 105 30 18 7 3
Key: No, number of players assigned a particular letter grade; Grd, letter grade assigned by John Sickels in his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook; WS, total number of win shares for all players within a certain grade specification; WS/player, average number of win shares earned through 2004 per player; WS range, total number of players within a specified range of win shares.

And the pretty picture:

Grade vs Win Shares (Hitters)

When we looked at this after the 2001 season, the Grade B- hitters had done slightly better than the Grade B hitters, with exactly the same number of players. Now there is basically no difference between Grade B and Grade B- hitters. Even the distributions are nearly identical.

Pitchers

Note that the ranges for pitchers are a little different. This is due to the fact that pitchers can’t accumulate nearly as many win shares as hitters.

No Grd WS WS/player WS range
0 1-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101+
4 A 269 67.25 0 0 2 0 1 1
3 A- 103 34.33 0 2 0 1 0 0
12 B+ 489 40.75 4 2 1 1 3 1
21 B 322 15.33 8 6 6 1 0 0
38 B- 373 9.82 19 12 6 1 0 0
49 C+ 460 9.39 28 12 5 4 0 0
59 C 609 10.32 32 19 5 2 0 1
43 C- 250 5.81 28 12 2 1 0 0
229 tot 2875 12.55 119 65 27 11 4 3
Key: No, number of players assigned a particular letter grade; Grd, letter grade assigned by John Sickels in his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook; WS, total number of win shares for all players within a certain grade specification; WS/player, average number of win shares earned through 2004 per player; WS range, total number of players within a specified range of win shares.

And again, with the picture:

Grade vs Win Shares (Pitchers)

The B+ pitchers did much better than the A- pitchers. The A- pitchers (Alan Benes, Rocky Coppinger, Jeff Suppan) turned out to be pretty weak, whereas the B+ pitchers comprised five (Bartolo Colon, #1; Ugueth Urbina, #5; Chan Ho Park, #6; Danny Graves, #7; Dustin Hermanson, #10) of the top ten pitchers in terms of win shares.

There were small fluctuations among the B-, C+, and C groups but nothing too startling.

Summary

There’s actually a lot you can get from this stuff. Here are what I find to be some of the more interesting items:

  • For the most part, the more highly regarded prospects turned into the more successful players and vice versa.
  • Pitchers, as a group, were less predictable than hitters in terms of development.
  • The flameout rate (zero win shares) was higher for pitchers (52.0%) than for hitters (43.0%); perhaps surprisingly, the gap narrowed with lower grades (B- or below): 56.6% for pitchers, 51.7% for hitters.

As I said in the original study, this isn’t earth-shattering, but it does confirm some suspicions. Two and a half years later, I stand by that assessment.

Next week, we’ll look at yet another aspect of the wackiness that is prognosticating prospects. I would tell you what that aspect is, but frankly, I’ve forgotten. Memo to self: work on teasers…

Prospects from 1996, Revisited – Start Here

by Geoff Young on Jul 06, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Just gathering all these in one place.

New Study

  1. Introduction: Background & Motivation (23 May 2005)
  2. Similar Prospects Who Diverged (26 May 2005)
  3. A Tale of Two Prospects (3 Jun 2005)
  4. Best Prospects, Best Big Leaguers (30 Jun 2005)
  5. Win Shares by Letter Grade (7 Jul 2005)
  6. Minor League and Major League Stats (29 Aug 2005)

Original Study

(Note: I have retroactively imposed titles on these for easier digestion.)

  1. Introduction (16 Sep 2002)
  2. A Tale of Two Prospects (26 Nov 2002)
  3. Win Shares by Grade (2 Jan 2003)
  4. Minor League Stat Lines (3 Jan 2003)
  5. Major League Stat Lines (6 Jan 2003)
  6. Hitters Who Became Stars (7 Jan 2003)
  7. Pitchers Who Became Stars (9 Jan 2003)
  8. Catchers and Infielders (9 Jan 2003)
  9. Outfielders (13 Jan 2003)
  10. Analogs, and Wrap-Up (14 Jan 2003)

Datasets

IGD: Padres @ Astros (6 Jul 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jul 06, 2005 (23) Comments

first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (7-2, 2.89 ERA) vs Andy Pettitte (5-7, 3.15 ERA)
previews: CBS | Padres.com

Fugly game Tuesday. Shut down by Brandon Backe? Lit up by a team with the worst slugging percentage in all of baseball? Like I said, fugly. I changed the channel after Brian Falkenborg served up a three-run homer to Jason Lane in the fifth. That pitch was fatter than the chocolate cakes I ended up watching Alton Brown make.

Thank you, I’ll be here all my life.

Peavy is scheduled to start tonight but may be a no-go due to “symptoms of strep throat.” If Peavy can’t make the start, the Padres will bring up Justin Germano to pitch tonight. (The linked article also notes that Dennys Reyes or Pedro Astacio will get the final start before the All-Star break. Germano? Reyes? Astacio? I don’t think this was the plan.)

Anyway, we’ll be optimistic and assume that Peavy will make his start:

                            AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Astros     85 .212 .327 .318
Pettitte vs current Padres  77 .273 .325 .390

For the Astros, it’s been Jose Vizcaino (.500/.500/1.000 in 12 AB) and Craig Biggio (.400/.471/.400 in 15 AB) doing the damage. Peavy has completely shut down Brad Ausmus (.100/.250/.100 in 10 AB) and Lance Berkman (.077/.294/.077 in 13 AB, with 7 SO).

On the other side, Robert Fick (.286/.375/.571 in 14 AB) is the only Padre who has had any success against Pettitte. Of course, Pettitte is a lefty so there’s a decent chance we’ll see Miguel Ojeda behind the dish. Pettitte also has been extremely tough at home this year, limiting the opposition to a paltry .224/.251/.341.

Amazingly, the Padres still lead the division by 4 1/2 games. I was really hoping the Friars would have pulled away and given folks in other parts of the country a new team to talk about. Instead, they’re all talking about how lousy the NL West is. And can you blame them?

IGD: Padres @ Astros (5 Jul 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jul 05, 2005 (30) Comments

first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Dennys Reyes (3-1, 3.93 ERA) vs Brandon Backe (6-6, 5.29 ERA)
previews: CBS | Padres.com

I hope you all had an excellent Fourth. If you missed Monday morning’s game, it was basically a pitchers’ duel between Brian Lawrence and Roy Oswalt. Unfortunately Lawrence hung one to Craig Biggio with two out in the seventh for a three-run jack. I’m not sure I’d ever seen Oswalt pitch before yesterday. I don’t think I want to see it again. He works quickly, throws hard, and has good command. Reminds me a lot of Jake Peavy.

With Darrell May now part of the Columbus Clippers pitching staff, Reyes makes his first start of the year. Over the course of his career, Reyes has been more effective out of the bullpen than as a starter. The splits (2002-05):

             IP  ERA  H/9  HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Starter    87.1 5.87 11.34 1.44 4.02 6.18
Reliever  152.2 4.60  9.55 0.65 5.25 8.14

Have you noticed Reyes’ GB/FB ratio this year? It’s 3.84. That is vintage Derek Lowe territory. Anyway, Reyes’ overall numbers this year aren’t real great. The ERA (3.93) is okay, but opponents are hitting .304/.401/.405 against him. Oh, and if he hits Biggio with a pitch, the latter will have been plunked by all but one of the guys named Reyes ever to pitch in the big leagues.

Against Backe, the strategy is to get guys in scoring position early in the game. The tighter the situation, the more he gives up:

             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
None On     206 .262 .361 .388
Runners On  177 .288 .328 .514
RISP         93 .312 .353 .581

And Backe gets tougher in the late innings:

          AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Inn 1-3  197 .305 .388 .523
Inn 4-6  150 .240 .287 .387
Inn 7-9   29 .276 .323 .310

Other Stuff

  • Kazmar willing to be second fiddle (Ft. Wayne Journal Gazzette). Pads fourth-round pick in 2004 has moved from shortstop to second base this year to accommodate former No. 1 pick overall, Matt Bush. Incidentally, I listened to a little of the Ft. Wayne/Cedar Rapids game Monday afternoon. Bush doubled in three trips to the plate. He also flied out to center and grounded to short. The double was laced just inside the third base line on a 2-1 pitch.
  • I also listened to parts of the Mobile/Jacksonville and Lake Elsinore/Rancho Cucamonga broadcasts. Memo to self: Do this more often; it’s free, and you get to hear what’s going on in the system as it’s happening. Anyway, for those interested, Cesar Carrillo will make his pro debut Thursday night against Lancaster. I’m toying with the idea of making the trek up to the Diamond. I may feel differently come Thursday; we’ll see.
  • A little something on recently acquired reliever, Paul Quantrill.
  • A Chat with Baseball America’s Kevin Goldstein (Scout.com). Goldstein cites pitchers Clayton Hamilton and Mike Ekstrom, and outfielder Ben Johnson, as pleasant surprises this year. Pitchers Travis Chick and Justin Germano, as well as Bush, are mentioned as disappointments.
  • Pythagorean Standings thru Games of July 3, 2005 (Baseball Savant). I’m not the only one who can’t find much good to say about the NL West. I also think the A’s giving Juan Cruz a shot as a starting pitcher makes a lot of sense. Thanks, David, for the shout out.
  • Hardball Times runs full year leaderboards to see who has been at the top from midway through last season to midway through this one. Of note: Mark Loretta checks in at #4 in average (.333) and #9 in OBP (.405); Jake Peavy is #3 in ERA (2.66) and #4 in SO/9 (9.8).

Okay, enough of that. Let’s go get a win tonight.

IGD: Padres @ Astros (4 Jul 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jul 04, 2005 (7) Comments

first pitch: 11:05 a.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (5-6, 4.28 ERA) vs Roy Oswalt (10-7, 2.54 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Happy Independence Day to all! Analysis? Sorry, not today. Enjoy the fireworks.

Other Stuff

  • The Fog is Lifting (Dan Agonistes). The study of baseball using statistics is a constantly evolving process.
  • Bill James Returns (Baseball Digest Daily). Part three of BDD’s interview with James. Disappointing to see him completely sidestep the questions about managers and GMs, but not totally surprising given that he now is part of the machine, so to speak. And FWIW, I know exactly who Dave Collins and Oscar Gamble are.
  • Toreros everywhere. Interviews with Greg Sain (Scout.com) and Brady Clark (BDD). I graduated from USD back in the day. There aren’t a lot of guys from my alma mater in pro baseball, and I get a little excited when one of ‘em gets some face time.
  • All-Star rosters have been announced. Congrats to Jake Peavy for being the lone Padre selected to the team. I know the lack of recognition outrages some folks, and I’m sorry that our guys aren’t getting more props. That said, I’m no great fan of the All-Star game. I don’t like the idea of playing an exhibition in the middle of a season, and I don’t watch it. My great hope, from the POV of a Padres fan, is that Peavy doesn’t get hurt and is able to get back to winning games that matter. I hate to be a buzzkill, but I don’t see the need for this thing. I guess it would be kind of amusing to see the AL “win” home field advantage in the World Series on a hit by Mike Sweeney off Brian Fuentes.

What, still reading? Go eat something already. There’s plenty on the grill…

Taking Back Petco

by Geoff Young on Jul 03, 2005 (8) Comments

Right field at Petco Park, with San Diego skyline in background

The Padres beat the Giants Sunday, 9-6, to take the final home series before the All-Star break. A few observations from the game…

Second Inning

First pitch Khalil Greene sees from Jason Schmidt is a filthy slider. Greene takes a horrible hack, and I figure he’ll see a steady diet of breaking balls all day. Instead, he gets mostly fastballs (including one that ends up in left-center for an RBI triple to start the Padres scoring) and finishes with two hits and four ribbies. I don’t know what Schmidt and company were thinking, but I thank them for it.

Runners at the corners, one out. Game is tied 1-1. Miguel Ojeda is on first, Tim Stauffer at the plate. The count is 0-1 to Stauffer. The Padres try a hit and run. Stauffer swings and misses, Ojeda is out at second by a mile. Stauffer ends up striking out, with Dave Roberts left on deck. Roberts, it should be noted, is hitting .394/.477/.636 with RISP this year. The Padres are putting on a clinic on how not to score runs against a really good pitcher.

Incidentally, you can add this to my growing list of things I don’t ever want to see again:

  • Brian Giles trying to steal third with a lefty at the plate.
  • Dennys Reyes working the ninth inning in a tie game.
  • Sean Burroughs trying to lay down a sacrifice bunt.
  • Hit and run play with runners on the corners, less than two out, a slow runner at first, and a pitcher at bat.

Third Inning

Dave Roberts takes a hack

The Padres get to Schmidt, scoring five runs. Key plays:

  • Giants right fielder Todd Linden gets a horrendous jump on a fly ball off the bat of Roberts, recovers, but then has the ball clank off his glove.
  • Giles comes back from down 0-2 to dump a single into center, scoring Damian Jackson from second. Ryan Klesko, who was on first, beats the throw to third. Giles reads the play perfectly and takes second without a throw.
  • Two-run single to left off the bat of Greene. Another fastball.

Fifth Inning

Early exit for Schmidt. Former Padre Brett Tomko replaces him to start the frame. His fastball is running 95-97 mph according to the scoreboard. When did he start throwing that hard? Mark Sweeney, getting the nod at first base, slices a triple past Moises Alou in left. The highlight is his head-first dive into third. Sweeney is to sliding head first what Akinori Otsuka is to swinging a baseball bat. (I am informed in the In-Game Discussion comments that several Padres sported a bandage on their chins in honor of Sweeney’s effort.)

Greene drives Sweeney home with a fly ball to medium right. Another fastball. Linden puts himself in poor position to make a throw after the catch and can’t nail Sweeney at the plate.

Western Metal Supply Co. building and left field scoreboard at Petco Park, with Marriott Hotel in background

Sixth Inning

Stauffer breezes through the sixth, or should have breezed through the sixth. Two easy outs to start the inning, followed by a grounder to first that Sweeney kicks. The Giants take advantage. Rudy Seanez eventually comes in and stops the bleeding, but the gap has been narrowed. Game is now 7-5.

Bottom half, Sweeney is due up against southpaw Jason Christiansen. Now would be a good time for Xavier Nady. Have him hit and then stay in the game to play first base. Nady, despite his inexperience at the big-league level, is the Padres’ best defensive first baseman. Sweeney strikes out on three pitches. Still, the Padres do score an insurance run.

Seventh Inning

Nady enters the games as a LIDR for Klesko in left field. Good thing he didn’t get an at-bat against the southpaw in the previous inning. The wave erupts. News flash: the wave sucks. Alou can’t touch Seanez’ slider, one down. Durham drops a single in front of Giles in right to pull the Giants back to within two. Linden can’t touch Seanez’ slider either, inning over.

We’ve seen 14 runs through 7 innings. Petco plays totally differently during the day than at night. Anyone know where to find those splits?

Eighth Inning

Scott Linebrink makes quick work of the visitors. Pinch-hitter Deivi Cruz pops weakly to short on the first pitch to end the inning. Man, I miss him.

Nady finally comes to the plate in the bottom of the eighth. Strikes out on three pitches with runners at first and second. He looks a little overanxious up there. I can’t imagine why.

Ninth Inning

Trevor Hoffman comes in to seal the deal. The place totally rocks when he enters the game. It’s our house. There are plenty of Giants fans at the game, as usual, but they have been very quiet all day. Now there are only bells. Hoffman starts off with six straight fastballs, then mixes in the other stuff. He strikes out Omar Vizquel to lead off the inning. Three pitches. The bat never leaves Vizquel’s shoulder. J.T. Snow lines softly to Giles for the second out. Then Alou comes up and chases a low changeup to end the game. The sellout crowd erupts.

Everyone goes home happy. Except for the Giants fans, who remain silent. But their day will come. And when it does, we can only hope they are playing the Dodgers or Diamondbacks. :-)

IGD: Padres vs Giants (3 Jul 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jul 03, 2005 (72) Comments

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Stauffer (1-4, 4.78 ERA) vs Jason Schmidt (6-3, 4.81 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

Great Rickey Henderson moment at Saturday night’s Surf Dawgs game. You need to remember that Henderson is the all-time Major League leader in runs scored and stolen bases, has 3000+ hits, and is a sure-fire first-ballot HOFer. But here he is, playing in front of a few hundred folks at Tony Gwynn Stadium, getting on base and causing his usual havoc on the bases (and starting in center field – at age 46!).

So he’s on third when a teammate, the right fielder, strikes out to end the inning. And this guy is pretty fired up (he wasn’t sure about one of the earlier pitches in the at-bat that was called a strike). Dude throws his stuff to the ground and slowly walks back out to his position.

Henderson, meantime, has gone back into the dugout to get his glove and cap, and then starts trotting out to center field. But, noticing his teammate standing out in right without his stuff, Henderson heads back to the dugout, grabs the dude’s gear and trots out to right field to hand it to him. Henderson proceeds to spend the entire “warm-up” time huddled with the right fielder, just talking to him. When it’s time to start the inning, Henderson flings the ball (which has been sitting in his glove this whole time) back to the bench and takes his position in center field.

Anyone who might question Henderson’s motives for playing indy ball this late in his career hasn’t seen the guy out on the field at a game. He is truly a pleasure to watch, both in the way he plays the game and in the way he carries himself.

So, Back to the Padres

Good to see the Padres win last night. Midway through the season, they are 44-37 (same as last year). I managed to catch most of the game on replay. Woody Williams looked shaky early but battled back to get the win (interesting but useless: David Wells, the pitcher Williams replaced, notched the Pads’ 44th victory in 2004). And how about Eric Young and Ben Johnson! Nice to see Young back out on the field again. He’s one of those guys loaded with intangibles – you know, that stuff we can’t figure out how to fit into a neat little equation. ;-)

Promotional T-shirt featuring 2001 Lake Elsinore Storm roster

As for Johnson, he joins Xavier Nady and Jake Peavy as members of the 2001 Lake Elsinore Storm currently with the big club. That 2001 Storm team dominated the Cal League and finished with the best record in all of the minors (they were declared Cal League co-champions when the championship series was cancelled due to 9/11, but make no mistake – they would have beaten the San Jose Giants pretty handily). Johnson played right field on that team, while Nady was at first base. Just like last night. And last night, Johnson came through with a two-run double for his first big-league hit. Congratulations, and thank you! This team needed a little pick-me-up.

More on Quantrill

Who is Paul Quantrill? His recent stint in the Big Apple notwithstanding, the recently acquired right-hander actually has had a great deal of success as a big-league reliever. Here’s how he’s done since moving to the bullpen full time in 1997:

  G    IP  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
631 664.2 3.28 10.06 0.56 2.17 5.32

Around the plate, keeps the ball in the yard. Also, very resilient. He’s led the league in appearances in each of the past four seasons (which may help explain his recent ineffectiveness). Here’s Quantrill’s record from 1997 to 2003 (i.e., before he went to the Yankees):

  G    IP  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
523 537.1 2.81 9.56 0.52 2.23 5.78

He is 36 years old, so it’s entirely possible that his best days are behind him. But considering that the Padres were able to move two ineffective pitchers off their roster and save $190k, I think they did okay.

I’ll be out at this afternoon’s game. If Kevin Correia can beat Jake Peavy, then Stauffer can beat Schmidt. Right?

Go get ‘em, boys.

IGD: Padres vs Giants (2 Jul 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jul 02, 2005 (60) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (3-5, 4.24 ERA) vs Jeff Fassero (1-5, 4.02 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

The games are becoming increasingly difficult to watch. Brian Giles thrown out trying to steal third with nobody out and a lefty at the plate? Sean Burroughs again being asked to lay down a sacrifice and still not being able to do so? Various infielders flinging the ball wide of the mark? If the Padres are trying to win the division, they’re doing a fine job of disguising that fact.

No disrespect to Kevin Correia, but let’s be serious. As Eric noted in the comments last night, “I wonder if the baseball gods are making up for Darrell May vs. Johan Santana.” I think Eric may be onto something.

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Williams vs current Giants  242 .269 .337 .405
Fassero vs current Padres   152 .283 .337 .414

For the Giants, Omar Vizquel (.450/.542/.600 in 20 AB) and Ray Durham (.421/.450/.579 in 19 AB) are the chief culprits. On the other side, it’s all about Giles (.389/.476/.611 in 18 AB) and Eric Young (.414/.433/.483 in 29 AB). Young is coming off the DL today (more below); it’ll be good to see him back in there against lefties.

Roster Shuffle

Speaking of May, he and Tim Redding have been traded to the Yankees along with “an unspecified amount of cash” in exchange for Paul Quantrill. The Pads are also activating Eric Young and recalling Brian Falkenborg from Portland. Also, Dave Roberts could be headed to the DL and Adam Eaton isn’t quite ready to come off, which could mean a start for recently signed Pedro “More Right Handed Than Darrell May and Less a Marlin Than Ismael Valdez” Astacio (note to self: need to work on a better monicker for Astacio).

So to summarize:

In Out
Paul Quantrill Darrell May
Brian Falkenborg Tim Redding
Eric Young Dave Roberts (?)

Different? Certainly. Better? We’ll see.

Also, U-T writer Tim Sullivan notes that the Padres may not be done dealing. As usual, there’s just a lot of talk and speculation at this point. Whether anything actually gets done remains to be seen.

Draft Update

First-round pick Cesar Carrillo has signed and will report to Lake Elsinore this Monday. Second-rounders Chase Headley and Nicholas Hundley, third-rounder Joshua Greer, and 10th-rounder Joshua Alley also have inked deals, which means the Friars have signed 10 of their top 12 picks from the June draft.

Enjoy the game. I’ll be out watching the Surf Dawgs tonight. I haven’t lost my faith; I just need to take a little break from the NL West giveaway.

IGD: Padres vs Giants (1 Jul 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jul 01, 2005 (114) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (7-2, 2.88 ERA) vs Kevin Correia (0-0, –)
previews: CBS | Padres.com

We’re hip, we’re happening, we’re using three-letter acronyms. Welcome to July. Let’s hope it’s better than June. I try to defend the NL West, but here’s how the division looked last month:

      W  L  RS  RA
Col  12 15 129 149
LA   11 16  95 121
SD   10 17  91 123
SF    9 17 128 159
Ari   9 19 132 179

How do you defend that? Right, you don’t. You also don’t complain too much. I mean, 10-17 is brutal, but the Padres actually finished the month in better position than they started it. Crazy.

                          AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Giants  198 .253 .335 .429
Correia vs everybody     224 .295 .374 .478

Yorvit Torrealba (.556/.556/1.000 in 9 AB) and J.T. Snow (.375/.444/.750 in 24 AB) have done the damage. Also, Barry Bonds (duh), but the Pads don’t have to worry about him right now.

On the other side, former Padre Brett Tomko, originally scheduled to start tonight’s game, has been bumped to the bullpen. This is Correia’s first big-league appearance in 2005. He has 58.1 career innings under his belt and has been cuffed around pretty good. Correia has a 6.07 ERA in 46 innings at Triple-A Fresno (home of former Padre relievers Jeremy Fikac, Brandon Puffer, and Brandon Villafuerte), working mostly out of the bullpen this year.

Mailbag

Longtime reader Bill Robens points out a disturbing fact about the Padres at Petco this year:

During my regular lunchtime ritual of going over how much better Xavier Nady is than Sean Burroughs and Phil Nevin, I found this little stat that no one (that I’ve heard) is talking about. Our opponents are KILLING us with doubles at home.

We’re outscoring our opponents by 9 runs this year, and by only 11 runs at home, where we’re 25-15. Why is this? We’re outwalking them by 32, we’re out striking-them-out by 69. The home runs are even, and we have 1 more triple. However, we’ve been out-doubled by 30! That’s 3 additional opponent doubles every 4 games. The end result is we’re beating them in batting average by 19, by OBP by 36(!) – and yet our slugging average is lower by 8. That’s just nuts.

Padre pitchers are 2nd in the league in strikeouts, but are 12th in the league in GO/AO ratio and 4th in the league in Air Outs overall. Since Petco is a tough home run park with a HUGE outfield, it looks like the ballpark is suppressing the home runs we’re giving up (just 31), and the huge outfield and generally crappy outfield defense are creating a TON of doubles. Basically, it just means everything people have been predicting has come true: the dimensions are helping our pitchers, while our crummy outfield is hurting our pitchers.

The discrepancy in doubles is pretty alarming. I don’t really have much to add to Bill’s thoughts. Although I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Dave Roberts‘ offensive production this year, I haven’t been real impressed with his play in center field. I think Jay Payton did a better job out there last year, and I’m really sorry we never got to see what Mark Kotsay could do at Petco. Of course, the Pads desperately needed a catcher and I don’t regret for a minute the decision to acquire Ramon Hernandez: I’d rather see Hernandez and guys like Payton or Roberts than Kotsay and guys like Gary Bennett or Wiki Gonzalez. But I would like to see what a real good center fielder could do in this park.

And it’s not just center field. I hate to harp on it, because there isn’t much anyone can do to change things right now, but having to play both Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin in the field is a killer. I’m ecstatic that Klesko is healthy again and driving the ball, and that both guys have stopped publicly complaining about their digs, but I can’t think of too many players who would be less well suited for Petco Park. Unfortunately, Klesko and Nevin also happen to be two of the Padres’ most expensive players, so, like I said, not a lot can be done. And to their credit, they’re both busting ass out there; it’s just that they’re real limited in what they can do defensively in such a big park.

Point? This isn’t a transition that is going to take place overnight. You don’t just decide to make your team more athletic and have it happen. Baby steps. Maybe you draft guys who are better equipped to succeed in the existing work environment. Develop some kids who can step in and chase balls down that the current outfielders cannot. It’s good to remember that the Padres are only midway through their second season at Petco and they’re still learning how it plays. (And doing a lot better there this year than last.) Eventually they will shape the ballclub to fit the park. Getting out from under a few behemoth contracts will help. So will the presence of CEO Sandy Alderson, who is a very strong advocate of responsible spending.

There’s a weird parallel here between what the Padres need on the field and how they need to structure their roster, but I’m not sure I can explain it as well as I’d like. The general idea is less bulk, greater flexibility. If you watch closely, you can see them moving in the right direction. It’s bypassing the likes of Steve Kline, Troy Percival, and Jon Lieber in favor of Chris Hammond, Rudy Seanez, and Woody Williams. It’s sticking Robert Fick behind the plate because he’s a good hitter and he used to be a catcher. (It’s also finding ways to get Nady in the lineup more often, but like I said: baby steps.)

And I guess that, when you get down to it, is the real point. Baby steps. Oh yeah, and beat the Giants.

Other Stuff

You know the routine…

Go Pads!

Prospects from 1996, Revisited – Part 4

by Geoff Young on Jun 30, 2005 (2) Comments

4. Best Prospects, Best Big Leaguers (or, Fun with Tables)

One question I found myself asking was which guys of the 515 in John Sickels’ 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook were considered the best prospects, and how have they fared as big leaguers. The flip side of this is which players have become the best big leaguers, regardless of their prospect status. But first, let’s put a face on some of these win shares totals we’ve been looking at so we can associate numbers with names.

(Confused? The series so far: 1 2 3)

Win Shares through 2004
Grd Max Min Avg
A 218 (Derek Jeter) 13 (Javier Valentin) 111 (Billy Wagner, 107)
A- 195 (Vlad Guerrero) 0 (Steve Gibralter, Jose Malave) 76 (Jeff Suppan, 72)
B+ 150 (Edgar Renteria) 0 (6 tied) 46 (Jay Powell, 42)
B 198 (Brian Giles) 0 (19 tied) 25 (Jay Witasick, 25)
B- 126 (Rich Aurilia) 0 (30 tied) 20 (Jimmy Anderson, 17)
C+ 148 (Mike Cameron) 0 (49 tied) 14 (Raul Casanova, 17; Jason Dickson, 17)
C 153 (Jorge Posada) 0 (72 tied) 13 (Pep Harris, 13)
C- 117 (Joe Randa) 0 (64 tied) 10 (Joe Roa, 9)

Just to clarify, the left column represents the highest win share total among players assigned a particular grade, the middle column represents the lowest, and the right column represents the average (the player coming closest to that average is also listed, along with their total win shares; so we can say, e.g., that the average Grade A rookie from the 1996 book was Billy Wagner, while the average Grade C- rookie from that class was Joe Roa).

For grins, here’s how this looked a few years ago:

Win Shares through 2001
Grd Max Min Avg
A 150 (Derek Jeter) 7 (Javier Valentin) 66 (Billy Wagner, 64)
A- 119 (N. Garciaparra, Vlad Guerrero) 0 (Steve Gibralter, Jose Malave) 46 (Todd Walker, 48)
B+ 90 (Matt Lawton) 0 (6 tied) 30 (Wilton Guerrero, 28)
B 116 (Brian Giles) 0 (19 tied) 16 (Enrique Wilson, 15)
B- 94 (Rich Aurilia) 0 (33 tied) 13 (Travis Miller, 17; Bobby Smith, 17)
C+ 90 (Mike Cameron) 0 (49 tied) 10 (Randall Simon, 10)
C 85 (Phil Nevin) 0 (74 tied) 9 (Jolbert Cabrera, 8)
C- 80 (Joe Randa) 0 (65 tied) 7 (Terrell Lowery, 7)

So, if we had to assemble an all-star team today based on how these guys have done as big leaguers, who would we include? Here are the best by position from the 1996 book (using the position at which they were then listed):

Best Big Leaguers
Pos Player Grd WS
C Jason Kendall A- 164
Jorge Posada C 153
1B Derrek Lee B+ 114
Tony Clark C+ 101
Richie Sexson B 101
2B Jose Vidro C+ 119
Luis Castillo C 117
3B Scott Rolen A 214
Phil Nevin C 129
SS Derek Jeter A 218
N. Garciaparra A- 183
LF Dmitri Young B- 91
J. Encarnacion C 74
CF Vlad Guerrero A- 195
Andruw Jones A 192
RF Bobby Abreu A 201
Brian Giles B 198
SP Bartolo Colon B+ 112
Jason Schmidt A 95
RP Billy Wagner A 107
Keith Foulke C 104

FWIW, the best left-handed starter to emerge from this group was Shawn Estes (Grade C, 59 win shares).

By way of comparison, here’s what our All-Star team would have looked like based on grade (with ties being broken by win shares):

Best Prospects
Pos Player Grd WS
C Javier Valentin A 13
Jason Kendall A- 164
1B Derrek Lee B+ 114
Steve Cox B+ 21
2B Todd Walker A- 98
Arquimidez Pozo B+ 0
3B Scott Rolen A 214
George Arias A- 5
SS Derek Jeter A 218
N. Garciaparra A- 183
Gabe Alvarez A- 3
LF Jose Malave A- 0
Billy McMillon B+ 14
Derrick Gibson B+ 2
CF Andruw Jones A 192
Johnny Damon A 163
RF Bobby Abreu A 201
Karim Garcia A 27
SP Jason Schmidt A 95
Jimmy Haynes A 36
Paul Wilson A 31
RP Billy Wagner A 107
Ugueth Urbina B+ 93

All but two positions (2B, LF) have at least some overlap between the lists. My suspicion with those two positions is that if a guy can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere. Generally speaking, second basemen lack the arm for shortstop or center field, nor do they have enough bat to play a corner position. Similar reasoning applies to left fielders. Often they are limited defensively (e.g., Ryan Klesko), which means they need to keep hitting to justify being run out there every day. If they don’t hit, the only other places to go are to the bench or out of baseball.

Finally, I present over- and underachievers by position. First, the overachievers – players who were considered fringe prospects but who have become successful big leaguers:

Overachievers
Pos Player Grd WS
C Jason Varitek C- 79
Jorge Posada C 153
Mike Lieberthal C 102
1B Tony Clark C+ 101
Kevin Millar C+ 89
2B Luis Castillo C 117
Jose Vidro C+ 119
3B Joe Randa C- 117
Phil Nevin C 129
SS Craig Counsell C- 73
Rey Ordonez C 61
LF J. Encarnacion C 74
Marvin Benard C 69
CF Doug Glanville C- 80
Mike Cameron C+ 148
Torii Hunter C+ 83
RF Preston Wilson C- 77
Bubba Trammell C 51
SP Rick Helling C- 72
Elmer Dessens C- 50
RP Keith Foulke C 104
Terry Adams C+ 59

And guys who were highly touted but who never quite made it, at least not to the degree expected of them:

Underachievers
Pos Player Grd WS
C Javier Valentin A 13
Todd Greene B+ 15
1B James Bonnici B+ 0
Ryan McGuire B+ 8
2B Arquimidez Pozo B+ 0
Ralph Milliard B 0
3B George Arias A- 5
SS Gabe Alvarez A- 3
Chris Snopek B+ 6
LF Jose Malave A- 0
Derrick Gibson B+ 2
CF Steve Gibralter A- 0
RF Karim Garcia A 27
P Paul Wilson A 31
Jimmy Haynes A 36
Rocky Coppinger A- 11
Alan Benes A- 20

If nothing else, it becomes a little more evident why some folks insist that there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. Bartolo Colon, Jason Schmidt, and Billy Wagner are fine pitchers, but guys like Scott Rolen, Derek Jeter, Brian Giles, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Bobby Abreu are among the best position players of their generation.

Next week: Win Shares by Letter Grade…