2. Similar Prospects Who Diverged
In Part 1, I outlined the motivation for this study. I also mentioned some of the types of questions we’d be trying to answer. Now it’s time to get our hands dirty.
In his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook, John Sickels assigns each prospect a grade from A to C-. It’s pretty self-explanatory: guys who are expected to make more of an impact are given higher grades than those who are not.
One question we might ask is, What if you have two players who are ranked similarly as prospects and who have similar minor-league numbers but who turn out to be very different big league ballplayers? Aside from being a stimulating intellectual exercise, this has a very real practical application; i.e., the next time we come across such a set of prospects, maybe we can find a better way to identify who will pan out and who will not.
As always, it’s possible that there is no answer, or at least no readily identifiable answer. But if we’re not at least asking the question, then what’s the point?
I looked for pairs of players who:
- had the same letter grade
- were the same age
- played the same position
For each pair, I found one who achieved big league success and another who did not. And I looked to see if there was anything in their statistical records to indicate what might have happened. One final note: we’re examining only position players for now.
Grade A
No.: 8
Minors: .294/.369/.470
Majors: .284/.359/.470
Avg. WS: 133.00
Sim. WS: Mark Loretta (132)
Key: No., number of hitters assigned this grade; Minors, aggregate minor league BA/OBP/SLG through 1995 of hitters assigned this grade; Majors, aggregate major league BA/OBP/SLG through 2004 of hitters assigned this grade; Avg. WS, average number of win shares through 2004; Sim. WS, player from our pool with a similar number of win shares to the Avg. WS.
Conveniently enough, there were a couple of 22-year-old outfielders in this group, and even more conveniently, one of them succeeded and the other did not. Here are their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Bobby Abreu 1952 .295 .371 .456 .109 .605 .161 .325 Ruben Rivera 1357 .280 .381 .525 .124 .460 .245 .434
Abreu hit for better average and struck out less often, while Rivera drew more walks and displayed more power. Abreu also had more pro experience under his belt, including more at-bats in the high minors (815 at Double- or Triple-A over two seasons for Abreu, vs 430 split between those two levels in one season for Rivera). In retrospect, Abreu did show a more refined approach at a higher level, which may have been an indicator of things to come.
Here are their big league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Bobby Abreu 4140 .307 .408 .522 .155 .838 .215 .399 201 19.90 Ruben Rivera 1586 .216 .307 .393 .104 .363 .177 .414 36 10.16
I’ve thrown in win shares per 500 plate appearances (at-bats + walks) to give a rate stat. This allows us to examine Abreu and Rivera on roughly equal terms. Yeah, it’s kind of a bogus stat because win shares includes defensive value, too, but it’s quick and easy, and it makes the general point well enough.
Abreu improved every aspect of his game on reaching the Show and became one of the best players of his generation. On the flip side, Rivera saw all of his numbers go into the tank and has been no more successful as a big leaguer than the likes of Frank Menechino (Grade C- in Sickels’ book) and Randall Simon (Grade C+).
To give you some idea of how far Rivera has fallen, when I first ran the numbers in 2002, Rivera compared well with Juan Encarnacion and Torii Hunter. At the time, I’d said that “The fact that Rivera’s big-league comps are a couple of guys who were considered vastly inferior prospects at the time is a rather damning indictment of his lack of development as a ballplayer. It’s hard to remember now, but Rivera once was considered on par with Andruw Jones as a prospect.” Fact is, now even Encarnacion and Hunter have completely blown past him.
Maybe Rivera was pushed too aggressively because of his ability to crush balls when he did make contact and he never really learned how to recognize pitches. The poor BB/SO ratio could have been a yellow flag; on the other hand, a similar ratio (.450) didn’t keep the older and less highly regarded Mike Cameron (.243/.330/.361 in 1566 AB through 1995) from going on to achieve big league success.
Maybe there were other issues that don’t show up in any numbers. That can happen, you know. As Sickels noted in his writeup on Rivera, “Some people also hint that Rivera has a nasty temper, as well as a touch of unpleasant arrogance. I don’t know if that is true or not, and even if it true, it may just mean that he has some growing up to do.”
Grade A-
No.: 11
Minors: .288/.357/.454
Majors: .304/.362/.482
Avg. WS: 87.36
Sim. WS: Paul Konerko (88)
Two 22-year-old shortstops with this grade show up in the book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Gabe Alvarez 221 .353 .438 .534 .120 .968 .181 .333 Nomar Garciaparra 618 .272 .341 .390 .088 1.250 .118 .274
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Gabe Alvarez 266 .222 .289 .357 .083 .316 .135 .373 3 5.17 Nomar Garciaparra 4133 .322 .370 .549 .067 .702 .227 .395 183 20.66
Nomar had done his damage at a higher level, but I think the overriding factor here is lack of sample size. We simply didn’t have enough information to go on at this point in their respective careers.
Grade B+
No.: 20
Minors: .290/.363/.439
Majors: .260/.331/.433
Avg. WS: 49.80
Sim. WS: Ron Coomer, Alex Ochoa (49); Damian Jackson (50)
Two 20-year-old shortstops with a grade of B+ show up in Sickels’ book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Edgar Renteria 1494 .256 .307 .315 .069 .417 .059 .164 Donnie Sadler 644 .280 .382 .421 .137 .911 .141 .317
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Edgar Renteria 4922 .289 .346 .400 .081 .643 .111 .256 150 14.00 Donnie Sadler 767 .202 .262 .284 .067 .337 .082 .277 10 6.08
Some similarities here with the Alvarez/Garciaparra case. Renteria’s numbers were inferior to Sadler’s, but as 19-year-olds, the former had held his own in the Double-A Eastern League while the latter had spent the season in the Class-A Midwest League. Renteria was two levels above Sadler (between the Midwest League and the Eastern League there is also “advanced” Class-A). So although Renteria hit just .289/.329/.388 at Portland, as opposed to Sadler’s .283/.397/.438 at Michigan, the former was facing much better competition. A young player performing well is a good thing. A young player performing not quite as well but against tougher opponents possibly is a better thing.
There is also the sample size issue. Renteria had four years of pro ball under his belt and had amassed more than twice as many minor-league at-bats as Sadler, who had just finished his second season. By the end of 1996, Renteria was starting for the Marlins; Sadler was practically duplicating what Renteria had done in the Eastern League the previous season, but as a 20-year-old. Not bad work, but maybe not as impressive as it had been coming from a kid still in his teens.
This is already getting pretty long-winded, so I’ll just present the numbers of some other matched pairs and let you do the rest:
Grade B
No.: 38
Minors: .281/.355/.429
Majors: .266/.332/.416
Avg. WS: 30.53
Sim. WS: Bobby Estalella (30); Chris Widger (31)
Two 21-year-old first basemen with a grade of B show up in Sickels’ book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Alejandro Freire 500 .304 .377 .458 .099 .550 .154 .289 Richie Sexson 1079 .280 .350 .444 .083 .439 .164 .334
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Alejandro Freire --------------------------------------------------- Richie Sexson 3065 .271 .349 .528 .100 .423 .257 .445 101 14.83
Grade B-
No.: 38
Minors: .277/.346/.415
Majors: .267/.335/.421
Avg. WS: 30.45
Sim. WS: Bobby Estalella (30); Chris Widger (31)
Two 20-year-old catchers with a grade of B- show up in Sickels’ book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Ramon Castro 467 .270 .336 .409 .091 .758 .139 .325 Paul Konerko 705 .281 .368 .447 .119 .679 .166 .323
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Ramon Castro 466 .212 .296 .365 .107 .483 .153 .354 10 9.58 Paul Konerko 3420 .278 .345 .481 .085 .638 .203 .364 88 11.77
Grade C+
No.: 46
Minors: .276/.351/.422
Majors: .262/.328/.429
Avg. WS: 19.41
Sim. WS: Sal Fasano, Andy Sheets, Mark Smith (19); Kevin Jordan (20)
Two 21-year-old second basemen with a grade of C+ show up in Sickels’ book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Edwin Diaz 1017 .279 .336 .429 .068 .333 .150 .333 Jose Vidro 1361 .276 .339 .389 .083 .618 .113 .295
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Edwin Diaz 12 .167 .333 .333 .200 1.000 .166 1.000 1 33.33 Jose Vidro 3485 .304 .367 .470 .085 .844 .166 .346 119 15.62
Grade C
No.: 70
Minors: .273/.348/.406
Majors: .266/.331/.429
Avg. WS: 15.16
Sim. WS: Todd Greene, Calvin Murray (15)
Two 20-year-old left fielders with a grade of C show up in Sickels’ book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Juan Encarnacion 743 .264 .323 .425 .064 .248 .161 .352 Anton French 753 .259 .323 .392 .081 .377 .133 .303
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Juan Encarnacion 3339 .265 .311 .439 .056 .321 .174 .364 74 10.46 Anton French ---------------------------------------------------
Grade C-
No.: 55
Minors: .271/.340/.390
Majors: .261/.325/.394
Avg. WS: 12.40
Sim. WS: Jeff Abbott, Brooks Kieschnick (12); Bobby Smith, Javier Valentin (13)
Three 25-year-old center fielders with a grade of C- show up in Sickels’ book. Their minor league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH Doug Glanville 2073 .270 .316 .362 .059 .468 .103 .234 Marquis Riley 1574 .265 .354 .311 .120 .778 .046 .132 Mike Wolff 1493 .279 .375 .461 .131 .666 .182 .368
And major league numbers through 2004:
AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA BB/SO ISO XBH WS WS/500 Doug Glanville 3964 .277 .315 .380 .050 .414 .103 .234 80 9.59 Marquis Riley --------------------------------------------------- Mike Wolff ---------------------------------------------------
So What?
It’s hard to draw any firm conclusions from this, but here are some factors to consider when evaluating otherwise similar prospects:
- sample size: who has more experience?
- context: is he older or younger than the competition?
- intangibles: what is known beyond what the numbers reveal?
That last one drives some people absolutely nuts. But just because you cannot figure out a way to measure something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. After all, the laws of gravity were in effect well before Sir Issac Newton was.
I think it’s probably a mistake to group all of their minor league numbers together. There is a significant difference between the levels of minor league play.
Richard: Yes, this is true about differences between levels. Unfortunately, for the group as a whole, it wasn’t practical to break the numbers down further. For individual players, level and age are two of the first things I look at.
good read, nice work, Geoff
If you ever want to really hack me off, mention the worst trade Kevin Towers never made — Ruben Rivera for Randy Johnson at the ’98 trade deadline. Can you imagine having Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson as your 1-2, even if they were both short-timers? Think they might have had a chance against the Yankees with those two guys getting four or five starts?
At least with you showing me Rivera’s minor league numbers, I can sort of see why they wouldn’t deal him. Wait. No I can’t. The HORROR!
What? The Padres never had Randy Johnson, so how could they trade him?!
I’m sorry, you said the trade he didn’t make. I never knew that was on the table.
Considering the Yankees won 4/4 in that World Series, RJ wouldn’t have made a difference, even if he won 3 starts.
Look at the Yankees now…they have Johnson and Brown as their 4-5…heh