Sickels 1996 and Win Shares, Part 3

by Geoff Young on Jan 06, 2003

Preseason All-America Team

A few names of note for San Diegans in this year’s crop:

  • Anthony Gwynn, OF, SDSU (1st team)
  • Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Wake Forest (1st team); projected by some to be the Pads’ first round pick in 2003
  • Michael Johnson, 1B, Clemson (2nd team); Padre second round pick in 2002
  • Jeremy Slayden, OF, Georgia Tech (2nd team); Padre 20th round pick in 2000
  • Chad Cordero, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (2nd team); Padre 26th round pick in 2000
  • Chad Corona, DH, SDSU (3rd team)

Other Items of Note

Ran across these while doing research on the Padres top 20 prospects:

Sickels 1996 and Win Shares

And now for the next installment in our exciting series. Mmmm, tastes like chicken…

Major-League Stats

Here are the average big-league stat lines (through 2001 season) for each of the groups. Once again, only rate stats are given (full lines are also available)

hitters

Grd   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA K/PA BB/K  ISO XB/H
 A  .284 .357 .466  .102 .179 .573 .182 .354
 A- .303 .359 .485  .081 .118 .685 .182 .343
 B+ .266 .329 .418  .085 .163 .524 .152 .329
 B  .266 .329 .413  .087 .154 .561 .147 .324
 B- .269 .336 .419  .092 .171 .538 .150 .327
 C+ .263 .329 .430  .089 .190 .466 .167 .352
 C  .263 .328 .400  .089 .169 .524 .137 .306
 C- .261 .324 .391  .085 .178 .479 .130 .304
tot .270 .335 .424  .089 .166 .533 .154 .329

Note. PA is AB + BB.

Once again, players in the Grade A group hit a disproportionate number of triples. Johnny Damon (51 triples, 3701 at-bats), Bob Abreu (33, 2417), and Derek Jeter (38, 3744) are largely to blame.

Players in the A- group have the highest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Four members of the A- group have batting averages above .300 (minimum 1000 at-bats: Nomar Garciaparra, .332; Vlad Guerrero, .319; Jason Kendall, .304; Mike Sweeney, .302), whereas only two members of the A group do (Jeter, .320; Abreu, .307).

The on-base percentages of the A and A- groups are almost identical. Each group has three representatives among the top 10 (Grade A: Abreu, #2, .408; Jeter, #5, .392; Scott Rolen, #10, .375; Grade A-: Kendall, #6, .389; Garciaparra, #7, .381; Guerrero, #9, .378).

The two highest slugging percentages belong to members of the A- group (Guerrero, .587; Garciaparra, .570), while the only two Grade A players to make it into the top 10 are Abreu (#5, .522) and Rolen (#7, .508).

Every group on the whole became less patient at the plate upon reaching the Show. All but the A- and B groups struck out more as big-leaguers. Members of the A- group made sigificantly better contact at the highest level (.118 K/PA) than in the minors (.146 K/PA). The A- group also is the only one to improve its BB/K (.661 in minors, .685 in bigs).

The C+ group improved its raw power numbers the most (.146 ISO, .318 XB/H in minors; .167, .352 in bigs). The B group saw its power improve the least (.147 ISO, .308 XB/H in minors; .147, .324 in bigs).

pitchers

Grd  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9 K/BB
 A  4.66  9.14 0.97 4.06 7.36 1.81
 A- 4.89  9.50 1.30 3.65 6.14 1.68
 B+ 4.12  8.59 1.04 3.85 7.37 1.92
 B  5.14 10.03 1.34 3.54 5.97 1.69
 B- 4.99  9.74 1.10 3.88 5.88 1.52
 C+ 4.76  9.71 1.09 3.58 6.21 1.74
 C  4.69  9.27 1.10 4.09 6.55 1.60
 C- 5.13  9.88 1.22 3.89 6.04 1.55
tot 4.78  9.49 1.14 3.82 6.40 1.68

The B+ group was toughest to hit, the B group the easiest. The B group also had the highest home run rate. The A and C groups walked the most batters (they also had the best ERAs), while the A and B+ groups fanned the most.

Unlike the hitters, only one group showed improvement in any statistical category on reaching the big leagues (the C+ group dropped its walk rate from 3.73 to 3.58 per 9 IP). The B+ group showed the least amount of degredation from minors to majors in terms of ERA (3.22 vs 4.12) and strikeout rate (8.10 vs 7.37 per 9 IP), the C group in terms of H/9 (8.47 vs 9.27), and the A group in terms of HR/9 (0.56 vs 0.97).

Overall, the pitching prospects had much worse numbers at the big-league level than in the minors:

        ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9 K/BB
Minors 3.55 8.27 0.58 3.48 7.51 2.16
Majors 4.78 9.49 1.14 3.82 6.40 1.68

Tomorrow: A closer look at the 10 most successful big-league hitters among the prospects.

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