Prospects from 1996, Revisited - Part 4
Thu, Jun 30, 2005
by Geoff Young
4. Best Prospects, Best Big Leaguers (or, Fun with Tables)
One question I found myself asking was which guys of the 515 in John Sickels’ 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook were considered the best prospects, and how have they fared as big leaguers. The flip side of this is which players have become the best big leaguers, regardless of their prospect status. But first, let’s put a face on some of these win shares totals we’ve been looking at so we can associate numbers with names.
(Confused? The series so far: 1 2 3)
| Win Shares through 2004 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Grd | Max | Min | Avg |
| A | 218 (Derek Jeter) | 13 (Javier Valentin) | 111 (Billy Wagner, 107) |
| A- | 195 (Vlad Guerrero) | 0 (Steve Gibralter, Jose Malave) | 76 (Jeff Suppan, 72) |
| B+ | 150 (Edgar Renteria) | 0 (6 tied) | 46 (Jay Powell, 42) |
| B | 198 (Brian Giles) | 0 (19 tied) | 25 (Jay Witasick, 25) |
| B- | 126 (Rich Aurilia) | 0 (30 tied) | 20 (Jimmy Anderson, 17) |
| C+ | 148 (Mike Cameron) | 0 (49 tied) | 14 (Raul Casanova, 17; Jason Dickson, 17) |
| C | 153 (Jorge Posada) | 0 (72 tied) | 13 (Pep Harris, 13) |
| C- | 117 (Joe Randa) | 0 (64 tied) | 10 (Joe Roa, 9) |
Just to clarify, the left column represents the highest win share total among players assigned a particular grade, the middle column represents the lowest, and the right column represents the average (the player coming closest to that average is also listed, along with their total win shares; so we can say, e.g., that the average Grade A rookie from the 1996 book was Billy Wagner, while the average Grade C- rookie from that class was Joe Roa).
For grins, here’s how this looked a few years ago:
| Win Shares through 2001 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Grd | Max | Min | Avg |
| A | 150 (Derek Jeter) | 7 (Javier Valentin) | 66 (Billy Wagner, 64) |
| A- | 119 (N. Garciaparra, Vlad Guerrero) | 0 (Steve Gibralter, Jose Malave) | 46 (Todd Walker, 48) |
| B+ | 90 (Matt Lawton) | 0 (6 tied) | 30 (Wilton Guerrero, 28) |
| B | 116 (Brian Giles) | 0 (19 tied) | 16 (Enrique Wilson, 15) |
| B- | 94 (Rich Aurilia) | 0 (33 tied) | 13 (Travis Miller, 17; Bobby Smith, 17) |
| C+ | 90 (Mike Cameron) | 0 (49 tied) | 10 (Randall Simon, 10) |
| C | 85 (Phil Nevin) | 0 (74 tied) | 9 (Jolbert Cabrera,  |
| C- | 80 (Joe Randa) | 0 (65 tied) | 7 (Terrell Lowery, 7) |
So, if we had to assemble an all-star team today based on how these guys have done as big leaguers, who would we include? Here are the best by position from the 1996 book (using the position at which they were then listed):
| Best Big Leaguers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Grd | WS |
| C | Jason Kendall | A- | 164 | Jorge Posada | C | 153 |
| 1B | Derrek Lee | B+ | 114 | Tony Clark | C+ | 101 | Richie Sexson | B | 101 |
| 2B | Jose Vidro | C+ | 119 | Luis Castillo | C | 117 |
| 3B | Scott Rolen | A | 214 | Phil Nevin | C | 129 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | A | 218 | N. Garciaparra | A- | 183 |
| LF | Dmitri Young | B- | 91 | J. Encarnacion | C | 74 |
| CF | Vlad Guerrero | A- | 195 | Andruw Jones | A | 192 |
| RF | Bobby Abreu | A | 201 | Brian Giles | B | 198 |
| SP | Bartolo Colon | B+ | 112 | Jason Schmidt | A | 95 |
| RP | Billy Wagner | A | 107 | Keith Foulke | C | 104 |
FWIW, the best left-handed starter to emerge from this group was Shawn Estes (Grade C, 59 win shares).
By way of comparison, here’s what our All-Star team would have looked like based on grade (with ties being broken by win shares):
| Best Prospects | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Grd | WS |
| C | Javier Valentin | A | 13 | Jason Kendall | A- | 164 |
| 1B | Derrek Lee | B+ | 114 | Steve Cox | B+ | 21 |
| 2B | Todd Walker | A- | 98 | Arquimidez Pozo | B+ | 0 |
| 3B | Scott Rolen | A | 214 | George Arias | A- | 5 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | A | 218 | N. Garciaparra | A- | 183 | Gabe Alvarez | A- | 3 |
| LF | Jose Malave | A- | 0 | Billy McMillon | B+ | 14 | Derrick Gibson | B+ | 2 |
| CF | Andruw Jones | A | 192 | Johnny Damon | A | 163 |
| RF | Bobby Abreu | A | 201 | Karim Garcia | A | 27 |
| SP | Jason Schmidt | A | 95 | Jimmy Haynes | A | 36 | Paul Wilson | A | 31 |
| RP | Billy Wagner | A | 107 | Ugueth Urbina | B+ | 93 |
All but two positions (2B, LF) have at least some overlap between the lists. My suspicion with those two positions is that if a guy can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere. Generally speaking, second basemen lack the arm for shortstop or center field, nor do they have enough bat to play a corner position. Similar reasoning applies to left fielders. Often they are limited defensively (e.g., Ryan Klesko), which means they need to keep hitting to justify being run out there every day. If they don’t hit, the only other places to go are to the bench or out of baseball.
Finally, I present over- and underachievers by position. First, the overachievers - players who were considered fringe prospects but who have become successful big leaguers:
| Overachievers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Grd | WS |
| C | Jason Varitek | C- | 79 | Jorge Posada | C | 153 | Mike Lieberthal | C | 102 |
| 1B | Tony Clark | C+ | 101 | Kevin Millar | C+ | 89 |
| 2B | Luis Castillo | C | 117 | Jose Vidro | C+ | 119 |
| 3B | Joe Randa | C- | 117 | Phil Nevin | C | 129 |
| SS | Craig Counsell | C- | 73 | Rey Ordonez | C | 61 |
| LF | J. Encarnacion | C | 74 | Marvin Benard | C | 69 |
| CF | Doug Glanville | C- | 80 | Mike Cameron | C+ | 148 | Torii Hunter | C+ | 83 |
| RF | Preston Wilson | C- | 77 | Bubba Trammell | C | 51 |
| SP | Rick Helling | C- | 72 | Elmer Dessens | C- | 50 |
| RP | Keith Foulke | C | 104 | Terry Adams | C+ | 59 |
And guys who were highly touted but who never quite made it, at least not to the degree expected of them:
| Underachievers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Grd | WS |
| C | Javier Valentin | A | 13 | Todd Greene | B+ | 15 |
| 1B | James Bonnici | B+ | 0 | Ryan McGuire | B+ | 8 |
| 2B | Arquimidez Pozo | B+ | 0 | Ralph Milliard | B | 0 |
| 3B | George Arias | A- | 5 |
| SS | Gabe Alvarez | A- | 3 | Chris Snopek | B+ | 6 |
| LF | Jose Malave | A- | 0 | Derrick Gibson | B+ | 2 |
| CF | Steve Gibralter | A- | 0 |
| RF | Karim Garcia | A | 27 |
| P | Paul Wilson | A | 31 | Jimmy Haynes | A | 36 | Rocky Coppinger | A- | 11 | Alan Benes | A- | 20 |
If nothing else, it becomes a little more evident why some folks insist that there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. Bartolo Colon, Jason Schmidt, and Billy Wagner are fine pitchers, but guys like Scott Rolen, Derek Jeter, Brian Giles, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Bobby Abreu are among the best position players of their generation.
Next week: Win Shares by Letter Grade…
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July 1, 2005 at 12:05 am
Geoff, I will confess I have not read this prospect article. But I thought I would post a link to this Washington Post article about Alderson and Towers. It kind of gets at the issue we are all thinking about: What is Alderson going to do and how will that impact Towers and Bochy, but I don’t think it answered anything:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....02970.html
July 1, 2005 at 5:56 am
I read it. Not sure what to get out of it, but a fascinating read anyway. I think I remember reading your old one in ‘01 too.