In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Dodgers (29 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 29, 2005 (90) Comments

first pitch: 12:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Darrell May (1-2, 5.40 ERA) vs Jeff Weaver (6-7, 4.75)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

I love it when Hee Seop Choi comes to the plate at Dodger Stadium and the crowd starts chanting “Beat LA.”

Very odd game Tuesday night. Pads won, 8-3, but it was a lot more interesting than it needed to be. Brian Lawrence threw another gem, taking a shutout into the eighth. Some spectacular defense up the middle from Khalil Greene and Damian Jackson. And a play in the bottom of the eighth in which two Dodgers scored on a wild pitch by Rudy Seanez.

Leading the Charge

Numbers. Analysis. Because if I don’t do it every once in a while, I could lose my geek cred.

Elevated from last night’s comments. Stats are through Tuesday’s game. With the usual caveats about team-dependent stats, check out who’s leading the charge.

Name AB/R Name AB/RBI Name AB/HR
Brian Giles 5.57 Xavier Nady 5.21 Xavier Nady 16.22
D. Jackson 5.75 Phil Nevin 5.47 Ryan Klesko 19.31
Xavier Nady 5.88 Robert Fick 5.50 Mark Sweeney 23.75
Robert Fick 6.08 Brian Giles 6.65 Phil Nevin 28.56
Ryan Klesko 6.67 Ryan Klesko 6.97 Brian Giles 29.56
Mark Loretta 6.70 R. Hernandez 7.15 D. Jackson 30.00
Dave Roberts 6.73 Mark Sweeney 7.31 Dave Roberts 33.67
Mark Sweeney 8.04 Dave Roberts 7.77 R. Hernandez 33.71
Khalil Greene 8.18 Khalil Greene 7.85 Robert Fick 38.50
Geoff Blum 8.27 D. Jackson 9.23 Geoff Blum 45.25
Phil Nevin 8.57 Geoff Blum 10.06 Khalil Greene 51.00
R. Hernandez 9.08 Miguel Ojeda 11.00 S. Burroughs 224.00
Miguel Ojeda 11.00 Mark Loretta 12.31 Miguel Ojeda inf
S. Burroughs 12.22 S. Burroughs 16.00 Mark Loretta inf

(Courtesy ESPN.)

Third Base? I Don’t Know

Xavier Nady is making the third base question a bit problematic. With Sean Burroughs being third from the bottom in ISO among 169 big-league qualifiers, the Padres aren’t getting any production out of the hot corner position.

Nady, of course, played third base in college. The trouble, as I understand it, is that Bruce Bochy has concerns about Nady’s defense. I can respect that, really, because he hasn’t seen regular action at third in several years. But Burroughs is dragging the offense down and in Tuesday night’s contest against the Dodgers, he botched a couple routine throws. If he isn’t adding value on defense, then why is he in there?

I like Burroughs, and I’m not suggesting that Nady is the answer. But right now Burroughs is struggling big time. Why not at least give Nady a shot at third when Dave Roberts and Phil Nevin return? What possible harm could come of it? If it doesn’t work out, then try something else.

Free Agent Checkup

Over at Dodger Thoughts they’re looking at the early returns on this past winter’s free agent crop (methodology – see comment #180). No Padres were represented over there, so I took the liberty of throwing a little something together (stats are through Monday’s game):

Hitters

Name $M OPS G WARP WARP Cost
Geoff Blum 0.575 672 54 1.3 0.37
Robert Fick 0.400 868 32 0.9 0.53
Damian Jackson 0.320 732 48 1.3 0.37
Mark Sweeney 0.580 867 62 1.1 0.43

Pitchers

Name $M ERA IP WARP WARP Cost
Chris Hammond 0.750 1.64 38.3 2.4 0.20
Dennys Reyes 0.550 4.08 35.3 0.6 0.79
Rudy Seanez 0.550 2.34 34.7 1.8 0.26
Woody Williams 3.000 4.24 68.0 1.8 0.26

(Stats courtesy Baseball Prospectus; salary info courtesy Hardball Dollars.)

As Richard pointed out, the Devil Rays paid the fewest marginal dollars per marginal win last year, so take the above with the appropriate buckets of salt. Still, gotta love that bench and bullpen. I know I do. :-)

Okay, enough of the numbers. Let’s play some ball. Time to take advantage of the general indifference that is the NL West. A series win at Dodger Stadium would help. Go Pads!

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Dodgers (28 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 28, 2005 (195) Comments

first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (4-6, 4.42 ERA) vs Elmer Dessens (0-0, 3.32 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

You are trying to establish yourself as a credible playoff contender. Which of the following do you do?

  1. Lose twice in the same month to a Rule V draftee.
  2. Go 2-4 while establishing leads of 2-0 or greater in six straight games.
  3. Start a third baseman whose ISO is lower than those of Cesar Izturis, David Eckstein, Luis Castillo, and 164 other big-league hitters with the requisite number of plate appearances.
  4. Bat said third baseman ahead of your best power source to date again despite homers in four consecutive games from the latter.
  5. All of the above.

Smitty says, 'Beat LA!'

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Dodgers (27 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 27, 2005 (103) Comments

first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Stauffer (1-3, 4.44 ERA) vs D.J. Houlton (3-1, 5.72 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

The much anticipated Stauffer/Houlton rematch takes place tonight in the hills of Los Angeles. Thanks to a lack of timely hitting and a surprisingly poor performance by the bullpen, the Padres dropped round one of what is bound to become one of the great pitching matchups of our time. Or not.

These two pitchers haven’t even worked a total of 100 combined big-league innings, so individual matchups are pretty pointless. Let’s see; what else can we talk about. How about the Pads’ late-inning dominance: is it still there?

Here’s where we were through May 15:

       G  R R/G   BA  OBP  SLG
Pads  38 80 2.1 .281 .379 .437
Opp   38 37 1.0 .198 .278 .310

And now, through June 26:

       G   R R/G   BA  OBP  SLG
Pads  76 134 1.8 .270 .361 .415
Opp   76  92 1.2 .241 .303 .373

Yeah, you couldn’t really expect to mantain that. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Other Stuff

  • Top 5 Pet Peeves About Sports Today (featuring, among others, Channel 4 broadcaster Matt Vasgersian; thanks to Eric Mirlis for the heads-up)
  • Stats vs. Scouts: Do We Need to Choose Just One? (Baseball Digest Daily). This one spawned an interesting discussion at BTF. And even the U-T has an article on the need to balance the objective and the subjective. Synergy. It’s not just a word I don’t really understand.
  • Padres play it safe, place Nevin on the disabled list (NC Times). Quoth Ben Johnson: “It took me a long time to get here, but I’m not surprised by that. I really didn’t know the game, and I wasn’t very good or consistent. I had to mature and trust my ability.” Also, Eric Young has started a rehab assignment at Portland.
  • Nady views himself as everyday ballplayer (U-T). We’re with you on that one, X. Quoth Robert Fick, no slouch himself: “There are not many players in the major leagues whose position is first base/third base/center field and not be out of position in any of the three.”
  • Reese having one heck of a weekend (MLB.com). Yankees have recalled USD alum Kevin Reese. He started in left field Sunday night against the Mets and went 0-for-1 with a walk. Reese joins Milwaukee’s Brady Clark as the only current big leaguers from USD. We’re mostly about the Padres around here, but gotta give some love to the alma mater. Toreros represent!
  • Boone or Moyer could be Padre-bound (U.S.S. Mariner). It’s that time of year: we’ve got rumors. Make of them what you will.
  • M’s blog Lookout Landing’s take on the finale between the bitter I-5 rivals. I can so get behind Jeff’s sentiments on Lee Ann Rimes. Or that other guy, Lee Greenwood. Really old patriotic songs aren’t subject to interpretation, dig? While I’m at it, I don’t ever need to hear another R&B version of “The Star Spangled Banner.” I’ll be honest: from a purely musical standpoint, our national anthem ain’t that great; but let’s not make it worse, m’kay? Just deliver the song and get on with life. Anyway, Jeff also likes Damian Jackson. ;-)

And there you have it. Go Pads!

So Ends the Rivalry, So Begin the Important Games

by Geoff Young on Jun 26, 2005 (5) Comments

Padres beat the M’s 5-4 Sunday afternoon to take the weekend series against their natural rival and, more importantly, put interleague play behind us for another year. Woody Williams pitched very well for six innings and then gave up an improbable three-run home run to rookie catcher Rene Rivera in the seventh to tie the game.

Unfortunately the Friars had been denied a big inning in the bottom of the fifth thanks to a spectacular double play started by Bret Boone off the bat of Mark Sweeney. The home team had runners at first and second with nobody out and a 3-1 count on Sweeney, who ripped a sharp grounder that looked to be headed into center field. Boone, however, made a diving stop and flipped the ball over his shoulder to shortstop Mike Morse, who completed the deuce.

But the bullpen held serve, with Rudy Seanez getting out of a runner on third with one out jam in the eighth. Seanez wasn’t his usual dominant self, failing to record a strikeout for the first time since May 29 at San Francisco (a span of 11 appearances), but got the job done. Then Damian Jackson, who had led off the bottom of the first with a homer to left, drilled his second solo shot to start the home half of the eighth. Jackson finished the afternoon 4-for-4 with two bombs and three RBI.

Xavier Nady, getting another start in center field, hit his third home run in as many days. This one landed in the third deck of the Western Metal Supply Building beyond left field. Nady joins Khalil Greene (twice) and Miguel Cabrera as the only hitters to reach that spot.

Trevor Hoffman came on to seal the deal. After a leadoff single by Raul Ibanez, Boone grounded into a double play. Ichiro Suzuki, given the day off, came up to bat for Morse and represented the Mariners’ last hope. But Happy Feet hit a soft line drive to center that landed harmlessly in Nady’s glove to end the game.

Outfielder Ben Johnson, just up from Portland (where he was hitting .299/.387/.551 in 274 AB), made his big-league debut, taking over for Klesko in left for defensive purposes. More on Johnson.

Seattle is having a rough go of it this season, but that is a pretty good ballclub. They battle. And Jeremy Reed joins Geoff Jenkins among the ranks of outfielders I’d just as soon not see play the Padres again.

Next up, three against the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. The matchups:

Mon. (7:10 p.m.): Tim Stauffer vs D.J. Houlton

Tue. (7:10 p.m.): Brian Lawrence vs Elmer Dessens
Wed. (12:10 p.m.): Darrell May vs Jeff Weaver

All games televised on Channel 4.

Ben Johnson

by Geoff Young on Jun 26, 2005 (2) Comments

I’m not sure this warrants its own entry, but I’ve been tracking Ben Johnson for a long time so here you go. He made his big-league debut Sunday afternoon, as a LIDR for Ryan Klesko in left field. Johnson, recalled from Portland to replace the disabled Phil Nevin, was drafted in the 4th round by the Cardinals back in 1999. He was acquired from St. Louis, along with Heathcliff Slocumb, for Carlos Hernandez and Nate Tebbs in July 2000. The story goes that the Padres asked for Albert Pujols, but had to settle for Johnson instead.

Johnson at one point was a fine prospect in his own right. When I saw him play at Elsinore in 2001, he was primarily a right fielder. Here are some notes from then (I’ve included links because some of you might be interested to read what I had to say about guys like Xavier Nady, Jake Peavy, and Oliver Perez back in the day):

A tremendous athlete, Johnson reminds me a little of Andruw Jones at the plate. He hangs over the plate and tends to swing at bad pitches early in the count. He already draws a fair amount of walks, and he’s very young; if he ever learns to be a bit more selective, Johnson could be a serious offensive threat. (9 Jul 2001)

Ben Johnson made a terrific throw from right field to keep a runner from scoring. This is not the first time I’ve been impressed by his arm. He’s also got a very quick bat but he needs to work the count better to take advantage of it. He swings a lot early in the count and then ends up either striking out or hitting a pitcher’s pitch. Johnson’s numbers are nice in and of themselves; taking into consideration his youth and relatively crude approach, they’re even more impressive. If he learns how to wait for his pitch, he could be a scary, scary hitter. (23 Jul 2001)

Johnson is an excellent athlete who has a good mix of power and speed. He will take a walk but hits from behind in the count too often; also, his swing sometimes gets a shade long. In the field, the former high school football star features a strong arm and decent range, although he is sometimes erratic, which is not unusual for such a young player. If he gains better control of the strike zone and settles down in the field, Johnson could be a fixture in right field and the #5 hole for the Padres by late 2003. His upside is roughly a cross between Andruw Jones and Brian Jordan. (18 Jan 2002)

Highly touted coming into last season by many observers (myself included), Johnson slipped a bit in 2002. More accurately, he didn’t show any development. The tools that made Johnson a prospect are still there: He draws walks, he’s strong, and he runs well. The bad news is that he isn’t hitting for average, his strength isn’t translating into much power, and his speed isn’t translating into stolen bases. The good news is that his plate discipline is improving. His walk rate went up and his strikeout rate fell even as he moved up a level (PA is AB + BB in this case):

       PA  ISO BB/PA SO/PA
2001  557 .165  .097  .253
2002  521 .134  .125  .244

The other good news is that Johnson is only 22 years old, so he’s got time to learn how to put his tools to use. The Padres left him off the 40-man roster this winter but he went unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. Johnson probably would benefit by at least starting the season at Double-A but the Pads have been fairly aggressive in promoting their toolsy prospects of late (see their handling of Vince Faison, for example), so it’s more likely that he’ll spend the year at Portland. If he can learn to use his strength, Johnson still could turn into another Brian Jordan. But I don’t like his chances now as much as I did at this time last year. (8 Jan 2003)

I have no idea what to make of Johnson anymore. He’s got a boatload of talent but it’s taking him forever to learn how to use it. (2 Nov 2004)

I still don’t know what to make of Johnson. But I’ll be pulling for him.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Mariners (26 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 26, 2005 (60) Comments

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (3-5, 4.13 ERA) vs Joel Pineiro (2-4, 5.57 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

I was running around town yesterday so I only got to listen to Saturday’s 8-5 victory over the Rainiers on the car radio. Now that I’ve seen highlights on TV, I have three thoughts (which is three more than I usually have):

  1. Those throwback unis the Pads wore are sweet. I wouldn’t mind seeing the guys bust those out again sometime.
  2. How in the heck did Xavier Nady hit that pitch out to left field? How did he hit it out, period?
  3. After so many no-decisions earlier in the season, it was good to see Jake Peavy get a little help from his offense. Peavy didn’t have his best stuff yesterday but thanks to homers from Nady, Khalil Greene, and Mark Sweeney, and a two-run double (to right no less) off the bat of Sean Burroughs, the Padres ace was able to pick up the W.

Also, I got to wondering if Peavy’s struggles might have been related in some way to the high pitch count of his previous start, but the available evidence doesn’t really support that theory. Here are all the starts in which Peavy has thrown 120+ pitches (white), followed by his subsequent start (grey):

Date Opp IP H R ER HR BB SO Pit
5/11/03 @NYN 6.1 7 2 2 1 5 6 128
5/16/03 Atl 6 7 4 4 2 2 5 110
9/7/04 StL 5.1 8 4 3 0 3 8 124
9/12/04 @Col 8 7 2 1 1 1 8 98
9/17/04 @SF 7 8 4 4 1 3 7 121
9/22/04 LA 8 3 2 2 0 1 11 114
6/20/05 LA 8 2 0 0 0 1 13 124
6/25/05 Sea 5 7 5 5 1 2 3 102

I still would prefer not to see a whole lot of those starts. OTOH, when you consider that only 4 of his 91 career starts falls into that category, it’s not so bad.

Sunday afternoon marks the finale of interleague play (remind me again why they do this now?). Two veteran right-handers go at it:

                               AB   BA  OBP  SLG

Williams vs current Mariners  150 .253 .341 .427
Pineiro vs current Padres      58 .224 .250 .328

I will be out at today’s affair. Enjoy the game, and let’s take the series!

X Marks the Spot

by Geoff Young on Jun 25, 2005 (6) Comments

I was going to rant about how much more effective Xavier Nady has been when he’s in the lineup than when not, but thanks to David Pinto’s Day by Day Database I’ve found this not to be true:

             G  AB   BA  OBP  SLG
off bench   21  21 .333 .400 .619
as starter  32 113 .257 .328 .478

Do me a favor, and don’t tell Bruce Bochy.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Mariners (25 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 25, 2005 (60) Comments

first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (6-2, 2.56 ERA) vs Aaron Sele (6-5, 3.73 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

So much for the Padres snapping out of their June gloom. Not only did they drop the opener against “natural rival” Seattle, but leadoff hitter Dave Roberts hurt his left knee and is scheduled for an MRI today.

It all looked so promising after the first two games of the Dodgers series, and then again Friday night, after a three-run second inning highlighted by a Xavier Nady RBI triple to right-center. But the pitching imploded and now we’re looking at a three-game losing streak. So who do you turn to when you need to end a losing streak? That’s right: your ace, Jake Peavy.

Peavy takes the hill in Saturday afternoon’s contest, against the stunningly resurgent Aaron Sele. The veteran right-hander, who had sported a sub-4.00 ERA just once since 1996 (3.60 in 2001), has been very effective for the M’s this year. Pads fans will remember him as the guy who shut them out at Safeco back in May.

                            AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Mariners   73 .192 .234 .247

Sele vs current Padres     136 .265 .311 .346

Of the healthy guys, Damian Jackson (.429/.500/.786 in 14 AB) and Ryan Klesko (.364/.462/.818 in 11 AB) have had the most success against Sele. Brian Giles (.125/.125/.125 in 16 AB) and Robert Fick (.235/.316/.235 in 17 AB), not so much. On the other side, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson are a combined 7-for-36 against Peavy, with one extra base hit (homer by Beltre) and 12 punchouts.

Here’s an interesting split for Sele:

           AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
RISP/Tot   68 13  3  0  3  5 10 .191 .247 .368
RISP/2Out  36  9  2  0  3  3  5 .250 .325 .556

If I’m reading this right, and my math is correct, here’s what he’s doing with runners in scoring position and less than two out:

AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
32 4  1  0  0  2  5 .125 .176 .156

Small sample be damned, that’s impressive. Of course, it’d be more impressive if he didn’t give it up after two outs but that’s another story.

Go get ‘em, boys.

Bad Game, Good Times

by Geoff Young on Jun 25, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

The Padres got smoked Friday night, 14-5, by the Seattle Mariners. It was ugly any way you look at it.

On the bright side, Xavier Nady made his first big-league start at first base, filling in for the injured Phil Nevin. Nady tripled and homered in four at-bats. The home run landed in the Padres bullpen, some 420 feet from home plate.

Also, Paul McAnulty notched his first career hit, singling to left off lefty Ron Villone with one out in the ninth. The few folks who remained in the stands went nuts. Welcome to San Diego, kid.

The other good news, if you want to call it that, is that the Friars managed to burn only three arms despite giving up 14 runs. And there is no chance that Darrell May, Tim Redding, or Dennys Reyes will appear in Saturday afternoon’s contest.

But it was just a game. The real highlight came much earlier, when a few dozen rabid baseball fans got together to mingle and to hear Kevin Towers speak. Towers confirmed what I’d heard, which is that he is very gracious and very candid. I’m still pretty blown away that he took time out of his busy schedule to come talk to us before a big-league game. This is what we call outstanding customer service. Big thanks to KT.

Also thanks to David Pease, Paul Swydan, and the folks at Baseball Prospectus who set up the event. Great job, guys!

Finally, it was awesome to meet so many Ducksnorts readers and fellow bloggers: Rich and Peter from San Diego Spotlight, Richard and Lance from Friar Faithful, David from davidlizerblog, LynchMob, Funkinstein, Joseph, and others (if you fall into this last category and I’ve neglected to mention you by name, I apologize; it was kind of a whirlwind).

So. Highlights from the event:

  • Towers indicated that the Padres were becoming more comfortable at home in their second season at Petco Park, learning how to use it to their advantage.
  • He also praised Bruce Bochy and the coaching staff for their handling of the bullpen to ensure that arms stay fresh throughout the season.
  • We complain a lot around here about Xavier Nady’s lack of playing time. Rest assured that we’re not the only ones in town who like Nady. :-)
  • Despite the early returns, the Padres still are happy with last year’s #1 overall pick, Matt Bush.

Anyway, thanks again to all my readers, fellow bloggers, Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Towers, and the San Diego Padres organization. This is one of the coolest experiences I’ve had in over 25 years of following baseball. Outstanding stuff.

Somebody get me a tissue; I promised myself I wouldn’t cry…

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Mariners (24 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 24, 2005 (7) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Darrell May (1-1, 4.76 ERA) vs Gil Meche (7-4, 4.64 ERA)

Padres end up with a disappointing split of a four-game series with the Dodgers. The Friars are pretty clearly the best team in the NL West. They’re also pretty clearly going to get smoked in the playoffs if they can’t put away the likes of D.J. Houlton and Elmer Dessens. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

This weekend sees the storied Padres/Mariners rivalry renewed. I don’t know why, but I always get so amped for this rivalry. Maybe it’s the double espressos. Yep, I’m pretty sure it’s the double espressos.

                         AB   BA  OBP  SLG

May vs current Mariners  80 .400 .430 .750
Meche vs current Padres  52 .250 .350 .308

Yuck. We need a miracle.

Pizza Feed

Final reminder:

  1. The Field
  2. The Feed
  3. The Game
  4. Imperial House

See many of you there. (Others will be with us in spirit.) Go Padres!