Hey, the Chargers are 2-0. It’s early and they haven’t faced real stiff competition yet but that defense sure is looking good so far.
This will be my last post until probably next weekend, so I’ll try to pack it full of information. Meantime, while I’m gone, feel free to read through the archives, visit some of the terrific sites over there on the right, or do whatever else you want to (who the heck am I to tell you what to do, anyway, LOL).
So, without further ado…
Storm Watch
Stockton beat the Storm twice at Elsinore to take the Cal League championship. Still, it was a heckuva season for the Storm. Having lost two of their top hitters to promotion and another to injury, they managed to parlay a 10-game
winning streak to finish the season into a playoff berth and a chance to defend their title. But alas, it wasn’t to be.
Justin Germano took the loss in the finale; for the first time all season he failed to go five innings. Of longer-term concern is the fact that he made 30 starts and worked 190.2 innings as a 19-year-old. Not good. Here’s hoping the heavy workload doesn’t create problems for Germano down the road.
USD Alumni
Now that the season is done, I thought I’d take a look at how some former Toreros are doing as pros:
IP H HR BB SO ERA
Ricky Barrett 63.2 49 2 25 79 1.27
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO
Joe Lima 258 .256 .304 .419 15 67
Mike McCoy 154 .312 .465 .461 42 23
Kevin Reese 514 .290 .385 .383 77 87
Greg Sain 387 .245 .323 .421 35 77
If you know of others, please let me know.
Sickels and Win Shares
I’m still collecting data on John Sickels and win shares. I’m through the R’s now, so the data set isn’t quite complete yet. Meantime, I’ve thought of something else to do with the numbers: look at peer groups. Basically there are a couple ways to do this. One is to examine players who were assigned similar grades at the same age. Another is to look at players who have similar Win Share totals over the course of their career.
Sickels assigned five outfielders a straight A grade in his 1996 book: Bob Abreu, Johnny Damon, Karim Garcia, Andruw Jones, and Ruben Rivera. Of these, Damon, Abreu, and Rivera were all 22 years old at the time of evaluation.
Here are their respective minor-league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO
Abreu 1952 .295 .371 .456 240 397
Damon 1599 .318 .402 .480 211 194
Rivera 1357 .280 .381 .525 192 417
Now let’s look at their big-league stats through 2001. I’ve thrown in win shares per 500 plate appearances (at-bats + walks) at the end just for the sake of giving a rate stat. This is so we can see, e.g., the true difference between Abreu and Damon in terms of value (yeah, it’s kind of a bogus stat because win shares includes defensive value, too, but it’s quick and easy, and it makes the general point well enough):
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO WS WS/500
Abreu 2417 .307 .408 .522 422 550 107 18.84
Damon 3701 .286 .346 .425 336 420 98 12.14
Rivera 1378 .218 .310 .405 163 451 32 10.38
The obvious conclusion is that not all players develop the same way. We have three players who were more or less evenly regarded as prospects back in 1996. One of them has improved his game across the board at the big-league level, one hasn’t developed to the extent anticipated but has still been a productive player, and one has seen every aspect of his game deteriorate to the point where he’s barely hanging onto a roster spot. The question, then, is what happened? The answer, unsatisfying though it may be, is that I don’t know.
Now let’s look at players who have similar win shares totals for each of these players. Analogs for Abreu include Brian Giles, Vlad Guerrero, and Andruw Jones.
Here are their minor-league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO Age Grade
Abreu 1952 .295 .371 .456 240 397 22 A
Giles 2255 .306 .396 .429 333 287 25 B
Guerrero 558 .328 .379 .548 41 63 20 A-
Jones 775 .281 .371 .481 95 166 18 A
Big-league stats through 2001:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO WS WS/500
Abreu 2417 .307 .408 .522 422 550 107 18.84
Giles 2513 .303 .409 .560 454 355 116 19.55
Guerrero 2755 .319 .378 .587 234 361 119 19.91
Jones 2960 .268 .337 .487 294 610 122 18.75
All of these guys were rock-solid prospects, although it took Giles a while to get himself noticed. Three of these players have developed beyond what their minor-league numbers would suggest, while the fourth isn’t too far off and also, being the youngest of the group, might yet improve.
Analogs for Damon include Mike Cameron and Matt Lawton:
Minor-league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO Age Grade
Cameron 1566 .243 .330 .361 179 398 23 C+
Damon 1599 .318 .402 .480 211 194 22 A
Lawton 1371 .282 .393 .425 228 204 24 B+
Big-league stats through 2001:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO WS WS/500
Cameron 2449 .252 .344 .433 323 657 90 16.23
Damon 3701 .286 .346 .425 336 420 98 12.14
Lawton 2855 .275 .378 .424 430 369 90 13.70
Neither Cameron nor Lawton was as highly regarded as Damon as a prospect. I’d venture to say that if you’d told just about anyone back in 1996 that Cameron would be having a more productive career at this point than Damon, they’d have thought you were out of your mind. Cameron has developed well beyond reasonable expectations, while Lawton has pretty much matched what he did in the minors.
Analogs for Rivera are Juan Encarnacion and Torii Hunter:
Minor-league numbers through 1995:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO Age Grade
Encarnacion 743 .264 .323 .425 51 206 20 C
Hunter 826 .258 .335 .369 67 180 20 C+
Rivera 1357 .280 .381 .525 192 417 22 A
Big-league stats through 2001:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO WS WS/500
Encarnacion 1670 .269 .310 .444 78 339 32 9.15
Hunter 1301 .264 .310 .429 75 271 32 11.63
Rivera 1378 .218 .310 .405 163 451 32 10.38
The fact that Rivera’s big-league comps are a couple of guys who were considered vastly inferior prospects at the time is a rather damning indictment of his lack of development as a ballplayer. It’s hard to remember now, but Rivera once was considered on par with Andruw Jones as a prospect.
Torii Hunter appears to be one of those late bloomers (although even he’s not exactly old), and even Encarnacion has managed to make it as a big-league regular. Both of these guys are going to blow right past Rivera in career totals before too long. And I don’t think that’s something anyone could have imagined just a few years ago.
Anyway, I’m not quite sure where I’m going with all this. I think the real points are that (a) players with similar statistical profiles and pedigrees don’t necessarily develop the same way and (b) win shares is a really cool way to demonstrate this. Someone more clever than me might be able to do some interesting work with this. If anyone’s interested in seeing the data set, let me know and I’ll be happy to pass it along when it’s complete.
Final Thought
ESPN has an interview with Dr. Frank Jobe in which the inventor of Tommy John surgery talks about the procedure. It’s a good read.
Okay, I’m out of here. Be good to each other, and I’ll talk to you in a bit…
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