IGD: Padres @ Astros (5 Jul 2005)
Tue, Jul 5, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Dennys Reyes (3-1, 3.93 ERA) vs Brandon Backe (6-6, 5.29 ERA)
previews: CBS | Padres.com
I hope you all had an excellent Fourth. If you missed Monday morning’s game, it was basically a pitchers’ duel between Brian Lawrence and Roy Oswalt. Unfortunately Lawrence hung one to Craig Biggio with two out in the seventh for a three-run jack. I’m not sure I’d ever seen Oswalt pitch before yesterday. I don’t think I want to see it again. He works quickly, throws hard, and has good command. Reminds me a lot of Jake Peavy.
With Darrell May now part of the Columbus Clippers pitching staff, Reyes makes his first start of the year. Over the course of his career, Reyes has been more effective out of the bullpen than as a starter. The splits (2002-05):
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Starter 87.1 5.87 11.34 1.44 4.02 6.18
Reliever 152.2 4.60 9.55 0.65 5.25 8.14
Have you noticed Reyes’ GB/FB ratio this year? It’s 3.84. That is vintage Derek Lowe territory. Anyway, Reyes’ overall numbers this year aren’t real great. The ERA (3.93) is okay, but opponents are hitting .304/.401/.405 against him. Oh, and if he hits Biggio with a pitch, the latter will have been plunked by all but one of the guys named Reyes ever to pitch in the big leagues.
Against Backe, the strategy is to get guys in scoring position early in the game. The tighter the situation, the more he gives up:
AB BA OBP SLG
None On 206 .262 .361 .388
Runners On 177 .288 .328 .514
RISP 93 .312 .353 .581
And Backe gets tougher in the late innings:
AB BA OBP SLG
Inn 1-3 197 .305 .388 .523
Inn 4-6 150 .240 .287 .387
Inn 7-9 29 .276 .323 .310
Other Stuff
- Kazmar willing to be second fiddle (Ft. Wayne Journal Gazzette). Pads fourth-round pick in 2004 has moved from shortstop to second base this year to accommodate former No. 1 pick overall, Matt Bush. Incidentally, I listened to a little of the Ft. Wayne/Cedar Rapids game Monday afternoon. Bush doubled in three trips to the plate. He also flied out to center and grounded to short. The double was laced just inside the third base line on a 2-1 pitch.
- I also listened to parts of the Mobile/Jacksonville and Lake Elsinore/Rancho Cucamonga broadcasts. Memo to self: Do this more often; it’s free, and you get to hear what’s going on in the system as it’s happening. Anyway, for those interested, Cesar Carrillo will make his pro debut Thursday night against Lancaster. I’m toying with the idea of making the trek up to the Diamond. I may feel differently come Thursday; we’ll see.
- A little something on recently acquired reliever, Paul Quantrill.
- A Chat with Baseball America’s Kevin Goldstein (Scout.com). Goldstein cites pitchers Clayton Hamilton and Mike Ekstrom, and outfielder Ben Johnson, as pleasant surprises this year. Pitchers Travis Chick and Justin Germano, as well as Bush, are mentioned as disappointments.
- Pythagorean Standings thru Games of July 3, 2005 (Baseball Savant). I’m not the only one who can’t find much good to say about the NL West. I also think the A’s giving Juan Cruz a shot as a starting pitcher makes a lot of sense. Thanks, David, for the shout out.
- Hardball Times runs full year leaderboards to see who has been at the top from midway through last season to midway through this one. Of note: Mark Loretta checks in at #4 in average (.333) and #9 in OBP (.405); Jake Peavy is #3 in ERA (2.66) and #4 in SO/9 (9.8).
Okay, enough of that. Let’s go get a win tonight.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 5, 2005 at 9:43 am
Farm Report: Hundley’s on the board with his 1st HR last night for Eugene … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_spoasx_1 … pitching for the Emeralds was Geer and Jamison … see also http://www.go-ems.com …
July 5, 2005 at 11:08 am
Geoff, I don’t know if you can do it with the data set you have, but I have always been a bit suspicious of the “gets tougher as the game goes on” numbers.
Let’s say Backe has two types of games:
Good games, where he goes 7+ innings
Bad games, where he goes 5 innings or less
Let’s say his performance was very consistent in each of his starts by inning. Let’s say he had 50% good and 50% bad, we might see something like your data.
The early innings would look really bad because the early innings have all of his bad starts and all of his good starts.
The later innings would only have his good starts, so will look much better.
So, it would interesting to see if in games where he went 7+, did his numbers by inning vary?
But anyway, I hope we beat him and somehow Dennis gives us a game we have a chance to win. At least we did not use much of the ‘pen yesterday.
July 5, 2005 at 11:38 am
Good point, Jay. The sample is a bit self-selecting. OTOH, you do have some guys who get lit up like a Christmas tree late in games. Hopefully we can jump on Backe early and not have to find out whether he really is tougher late.
July 5, 2005 at 2:53 pm
Hey Geoff (and others),
What do you believe the thinking is behind designating a player for assignment? I mean, by doing that, you lose the last threads of leverage you might have in a deal. Are you just waiving a giant red flag to call attention to the guy, with the hope of getting ANYTHING you can? If not, why not waive/release him outright?
July 5, 2005 at 3:18 pm
2 possible reasons I can think of. 1) If the player is at all desirable, teams may make some sort of deal knowing that if released he is on the open market, but if they swing a deal they can have exclusive rights. 2) If they designate for assignment and no one bites, they can sign to a minor league deal, right?
July 5, 2005 at 5:01 pm
Hmmm, interesting lineup:
1. Roberts, cf
2. Young, 2b
3. Klesko, lf
4. Giles, rf
5. Blum, 3b
6. Nady, 1b
7. Jackson, ss
8. Ojeda, c
9. Reyes, p
July 5, 2005 at 5:03 pm
Jonathan: Regarding your point #2, I believe that is exactly what the Reds did with D’Angelo Jimenez, who is now playing at Chattanooga.
July 5, 2005 at 5:09 pm
Blum as an offensive upgrade over Burroughs: 0.049 r/g (by VORPr). I’m not impressed. How about 1B/3B of Sweeney/Nady. Offensive upgrade over Nevin/Burroughs: .641 r/g. Now, that’s huge, and certainly enough to at least see if Nady can handle 3B.
July 5, 2005 at 5:18 pm
And how the hell does Blum bat in front of Nady?
July 5, 2005 at 5:29 pm
Jonathan-
I don’t believe scenario #2 wouldn’t apply here (Bret Boone) because Boone is a 5+ year vet and I think he can veto that move.
It seems that the biggest benefit might be that a DFA opens up a spot on the 40-man roster while the DFA’d guy dangles in the wind for 10 days. Though that still doesn’t explain why you wouldn’t just waive/release a guy…
July 5, 2005 at 5:38 pm
Reyes actually has pretty good command today…so far
July 5, 2005 at 6:49 pm
“I don’t believe scenario #2 wouldn’t apply here (Bret Boone) because Boone is a 5+ year vet and I think he can veto that move.”
If a player vetoes the move, he’s basically voiding his contract to become a FA. I think the Mariners would be thrilled if Bret Boone did that.
I think if a team has decided that it is ready to release a player, they might as well DFA him to try to work out a trade. Worse case, they just release him ten days later.
July 5, 2005 at 6:59 pm
Hey, Vinay, why don’t I see any of your stuff at Hardball Times?
July 5, 2005 at 7:26 pm
The first base umpire has money on the Astros or something… (at least 4 separate missed calls favoring the ‘Stros by the first base ump)
July 5, 2005 at 7:31 pm
In the end, it isn’t the umpiring that’s doing us in. It’s the Astros’ use of Earl Weaver-ball: pitching and three-run homers.
July 5, 2005 at 7:34 pm
Its not the ump> You dont win a lot of games with one freaking run!!!
July 5, 2005 at 7:35 pm
well I’ll be danged….another run!!!
Imagine that!!
July 5, 2005 at 7:40 pm
“Hey, Vinay, why don’t I see any of your stuff at Hardball Times?”
Because I’m lazy.
Honestly, writing is hard work. I had forgotten how hard until I started doing some for THT. It’s much easier for me to dash off quick posts on message boards than to think through and write a column regularly.
Just shows how much respect guys like Geoff deserve — it’s tough to do what he does.
I’m still plenty involved with THT, doing technical work and other stuff.
July 5, 2005 at 7:43 pm
so much for that rally
our injury bug is starting to show through big time.
July 5, 2005 at 7:48 pm
I couldn’t agree more, Vinay. I’ve been writing occasional (and very brief) posts at “Friar Faithful” since Richard invited me aboard awhile back.
Makes me wonder how the hell I cranked out all those papers in college. I don’t know how the Gleeman’s of the world manage it.
July 5, 2005 at 7:50 pm
Vinay-
Exactly! If the player turns down the minor league assignment at the end of the 10 days, then he becomes a FA. I can see that from the player’s perspective.
What I don’t get is why a team does a DFA on a vet who’s obviously going to turn it down (except that they get to open up a roster spot 10 days earlier than they could if they waived him). What benefit comes to the team besides telling the world that Player X is on the block (which I would assume other teams would already know)?
July 5, 2005 at 8:26 pm
waiver claim is a funny deal. players put on waivers must be recalled, traded or become a free agent in ten days. if the player is claimed off of waivers the claiming team is only responsible for the waiver fee(30k comes to mind). Generally the hope is that more than one team claims the player so that a trade can be worked out and the waiving team can offload the responsibility for some of that players contract and recieve at least something for compensation.
(shooting from the hip here with some real stale memory cells so dont take this as gospel)
July 5, 2005 at 8:44 pm
Brian, I think the roster spot is the reason for the team. Not that a roster spot is a big deal, but it’s something.
July 5, 2005 at 8:45 pm
From ESPN.com:
You’ll sometimes read that a player has been “designated for assignment.”
What does this mean? Essentially, it allows a club to open up a roster spot while it figures out what it’s going to do with a player. As we’ll see below, there are certain situations in which a team needs a player’s permission to either trade him or send him to the minors. So rather than force the player to make a quick decision, the team can simply designate him for assignment while he decides.
More commonly, a player is designated for assignment so the club can open up his roster spot while they’re waiting for him to clear waivers, which can take four or five days. Occasionally, a club will designate a player for assignment while they’re trying to trade him.
July 5, 2005 at 9:16 pm
Thanks for the kind words, folks. I’d trade ‘em for a win, but they’re appreciated nonetheless.
Listening to the Eugene Emeralds right now. They just lost, 10-5. Chase Headley and Nicholas Hundley both homered.
July 5, 2005 at 9:24 pm
Switched to the Elsinore game. Storm down 6-4 in the bottom of the 9th, Kottaras drives a two-run double to tie the game. Michael Johnson coming up. First game back since May 24.
It’s “Nothing Night” at The Diamond:
http://tinyurl.com/8pm3z
No ticket takers, no PA announcer, no mascot. Just two teams, umpires, and fans. Wacky.
July 5, 2005 at 9:33 pm
Stephen Drew has hit two homers for Lancaster tonight.
July 5, 2005 at 9:40 pm
Fernando Valenzuela Jr. also has a bomb.
July 6, 2005 at 12:18 am
I havent been as active on the minor league radio circuit as I was in years past. Must be getting stale or disgusted with the way the Padres are handling their prospects. Either way, your posts have jarred memories of some wonderful insight gain from listening to the local announcers in the minor league games. I think I will start getting in a few broadcasts again. tks..
July 6, 2005 at 2:16 am
Ugly game. 1B ump was driving me crazy, but only cost us a run. I question bringing in Falkenburg in the situation if you are going to use Quantrill again. While we may only get 2-3 runs a game, Houston’s park is not a place to be putting guys on hoping for a DP. Maybe it was for the match up, but I cannot imagine anyone vs. Falkenburg is a great match up.