Music Theory

Well, not really. Quick ruminations on some of what I like in music.

• Strong melody, backed by something that works against it. Bjork, Radiohead, and some late-model Beatles (I’m thinking specifically of songs like "Tomorrow Never Knows" and "Yer Blues") are artists in the pop world that do this well. Charles Mingus and Henryk Gorecki (his Symphony No. 3 is one of the more powerful pieces I’ve ever heard) employ this tactic in other styles. For me, the tension created makes the melody that much sweeter.
• Instability caused by repetition of notes or phrases. As a guitarist with limited technical abilities, I love hearing a player ride a note until it sounds wrong. Neil Young and Bill Frisell are a couple of my favorites.
• Controlled chaos. I’m not really into avant-garde. Nothing atonal. I occassionally catch some of that stuff on our local jazz station, and I just don’t get it. But I do like hearing an artist push boundaries within a structure. Since I’m most familiar with guitars and guitarists, I’ll give a few examples: Vernon Reid, "Cult of Personality"; Andy Summers, "Driven to Tears"; a lot of what Adrian Belew does.

Odds and Ends

• Hoffman, others healing well (Padres.com)
• Count Cubs to be among surprise teams in 2003 (forget the Cubs, check out Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton; ESPN [with thanks to the Fanstop folks for pointing this out to me])
• Prospect Report: Hype Squad (Xavier Nady makes David Cameron’s list of overrated prospects [personally I think if anything he's a bit underrated]; Strike Three)
• California Quarter Design Concept Finalist Poll (if you’re a Californian, why not vote?)

Sickels 1996 and Win Shares

First, a quick correction to one of the previous data tables: the big-league H/9 for Grade B pitchers was listed as 1.03; it should be 10.03. The table has been corrected in the archives.

With that out of the way, let’s wrap this thing up with a look at how some current prospects compare with those listed in Sickels’ 1996 book. This list includes those players given a Grade A or A- in his 2002 book; prospects are grouped by position. Once more, only rate stats are listed; a complete listing is also available.

Analogs for Current Prospects

Player       BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA K/PA  BB/K  ISO XB/H
  now
H.Blalock  .298 .349 .524  .110 .106 1.034 .226 .327
S.Burrough .327 .416 .454  .122 .114 1.068 .127 .285
M.Cuddyer  .284 .378 .469  .120 .178  .673 .185 .382
  then
S.Rolen    .294 .376 .460  .107 .162  .661 .166 .333
G.Arias    .267 .348 .483  .106 .205  .515 .216 .401

  now
C.Pena     .284 .396 .515  .143 .216  .662 .231 .456
N.Johnson  .297 .448 .487  .184 .197  .938 .190 .355
A.Gonzalez .308 .389 .450  .115 .149  .774 .142 .304
  then
J.Bonnici  .291 .399 .439  .137 .178  .770 .148 .302
J.Ibarra   .292 .393 .554  .138 .219  .633 .262 .456

  now
W.Betemit  .294 .352 .433  .084 .201  .420 .139 .305
A.Berroa   .288 .356 .457  .061 .163  .371 .169 .370
K.Johnson  .283 .387 .485  .135 .222  .609 .202 .378
  then
D.Jeter    .306 .383 .413  .104 .135  .769 .107 .233
Garciparr  .272 .341 .390  .088 .071 1.250 .118 .274
T.Batista  .270 .333 .426  .082 .199  .415 .156 .333

  now
A.Kearns   .282 .383 .487  .133 .199  .670 .205 .431
  then
K.Garcia   .276 .330 .501  .075 .216  .347 .225 .427
B.Abreu    .295 .371 .456  .109 .181  .605 .161 .325

Note. PA is AB + BB.

Player        ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9   K/9 K/BB
  now
J.Beckett    1.72 5.73 0.54 2.21 11.92 5.39
D.Tankersley 2.52 6.43 0.57 3.16 11.22 3.55
J.Cruz       4.37 8.69 0.70 4.34  9.34 2.15
J.Peavy      2.51 6.63 0.49 3.12 11.64 3.73
  then
P.Wilson     2.86 7.17 0.42 2.48  9.31 3.75
J.Schmidt    3.57 8.58 0.52 3.98  8.41 2.11
J.Haynes     2.91 7.99 0.61 2.80  8.76 3.13
B.Colon      2.36 6.33 0.51 3.84  1.91 2.84
K.Foulke     3.25 8.37 0.73 1.60  8.69 5.43

Wrap-Up: What Did We Learn and Where Do We Go from Here?

Things we learned from this particular sample:

• In general, prospects who are more highly regarded have more successful big-league careers
• Pitching prospects are less predictable than hitting prospects
• Hitters walk less upon reaching the big leagues
• Pitchers give up a lot more homers in the Show than in the minors
• For hitters, performing well at a young age, playing a premium position, controlling the strike zone, and displaying good isolated power were primary attributes of those who became big-league stars
• For pitchers, health and opportunity were the primary attributes among those who succeeded in the big leagues.
• For hitters, minor-league shortstops and center fielders turned into the most productive big-leaguers, followed by third basemen and right fielders; those who played first base, second base, or left field tended not to become stars, while catchers often needed to move to a less demanding position to make full use of their offensive capabilities

Where we might go from here:

• The impact of draft position on a prospect’s chances
• The respective chances of high school, junior college, and 4-year college players
• Geographic considerations (climate, economics, cultural influences, etc.)
• Anything to figure out what do with pitchers

Dataset

Finally, I’ve made the dataset available for download. It’s over at www.ducksnorts.com/datasets if you’re interested. Of course, any comments, suggestions, and criticisms are most welcome. I hope you found this series as informative and entertaining as I did.