In-Game Discussion: Padres vs White Sox (11 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 11, 2005 (322) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Stauffer (1-2, 4.55 ERA) vs Mark Buehrle (7-1, 3.15 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

Same old story Friday night: Padres had chances but couldn’t take advantage of them. When you’re playing a good team like the White Sox, that’s not a recipe for success. On the bright side, we did come home with some sweet Aki T-shirts. They look great, but don’t change the fact that the Dodgers and Diamondbacks both have crept back to within 2 1/2 games of first place in the NL West.

Again, with the interleague contest, it’s tough to break down the matchups so I won’t. Instead, with the draft still on my mind, and with former Padre first-rounder Dustin Hermanson getting the save Friday against his old uniform, I thought I’d take a quick look back at the 1995 draft.

In the latest issue of Baseball America, they re-examine some drafts from the past and try to figure out how things would have played out if we knew then what we know now. You may recall that in 1995, the Friars tabbed Pennsylvania high school catcher Ben Davis with their first pick (second overall). Unfortunately, aside from a few brief stretches here and there, Davis hasn’t had much big-league success and has managed to work his way back down the minor leagues.

Baseball America suggests that if they had it do over again, the Padres would take Kerry Wood (who went #4 to the Cubs) with that pick but I’m not so sure. BA has the Angels taking Todd Helton first overall. This would have left San Diego to choose from – in addition to Wood – the likes of Roy Halladay, Matt Morris, and Sean Casey. But there was another player out there I’m pretty sure I would have taken (with the benefit of knowledge nobody had at the time, of course), the guy Kansas City ended up grabbing in the second round, Carlos Beltran.

No disrespect to Wood, who when healthy has been a pretty good (and occassionally brilliant) pitcher, but I’m not convinced he would even be the second pitcher taken in that draft, let alone the second player. Still, he would have been a fair shake better than Davis. And of course, Beltran has been better than both. Ah, the wisdom of hindsight.

Speaking of the draft, the U-T is reporting that the Padres have agreed to terms with LHP Cesar Ramos. The 35th pick overall, taken as compensation for the Red Sox signing David Wells (thank you!) will receive a bonus of $950k. Word is, Ramos may end up at Elsinore later this summer.

Speaking of Cesars, Peter has posted an interview with this year’s first-round pick, RHP Cesar Carrillo. Check it out.

And in other Padre blog news, regular Ducksnorts reader and commenter Lance (DONG!!! DONG!!! DONG!!! DONG!!! DONG!!!) has joined up with Richard over at Friar Faithful. Go over and say hey when you have a chance.

Finally, to those of you who may have discovered Ducksnorts via Channel 4′s Outta Left Field, welcome aboard! Good to see you joining us during the games (as well as before and after!). Despite the recent struggles, this remains a very good Padre team. And if you look around MLB at what some other ballclubs are putting out on the field, I think you’ll agree that we can be pretty proud of the guys who call Petco home. They’re not perfect, but they’re pretty darned good, and they will turn things around again. And when they do, we can welcome even more folks who suddenly become interested in talking about the Padres. :-)

I have no problem with people jumping on the bandwagon, dig? I just want to make sure that once they’re on, they stick around awhile. A win tonight against the White Sox couldn’t hurt. Let’s do it.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs White Sox (10 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 10, 2005 (81) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (2-3, 4.46 ERA) vs Jon Garland (9-2, 3.40 ERA)

The Padres salvaged the finale of a three-game series against the Indians behind seven shutout innings from Adam Eaton, who also drove in a run at the plate. The emergence of Eaton this year has been one of the keys to San Diego’s success thus far.

Next up, the White Sox. There’s really not much to go on with the head-to-head matchups, and to be honest, I’m kinda fried from the week. Go read the chat Vince and I had about the series, if you haven’t already; it’s all pretty much there.

If you’re stuck for ideas, why not continue yesterday’s discussion of Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles as potential future HOFers? FWIW, I like Abreu’s chances better because of his age. Off the top of my head, I’d think that Giles would have to play at a high level into his 40s to have a shot. Doesn’t strike me as likely, but you never know.

Anyway, enough of the HOF; let’s see if the Pads can get a win tonight.

Errata, Corrigenda, and Other Latin Words

In Wednesday’s In-Game Discussion I said, while talking about the Padres 1996 draft, “I believe Jason Middlebrook (ninth round) is the only guy who ever sniffed the big leagues.”

Jonathan of PDX Beavers fame wrote in to set the record straight, and for this I am grateful:

You missed only one guy – the Pads 15th round pick that year, Steve Watkins, one of my favorite Beavers pitchers of the last few years.

Watkins had a cup of coffee with the Pads last year (11 games), but is now ironically with the Indians system. He’s in AAA currently, and pitching OK. He had a very good spring with Cleveland and I expect he’ll get another look in the bigs at some point this year.

Also, catcher Brian Loyd was their 5th round pick that year – maybe the most brutal Beavers hitter of the last 5 years. Oh man, he was overmatched at AAA, never got beyond that point.

Of course, how could I have forgotten Watkins? And Loyd, for that matter; he’s the guy the Padres sent to Toronto in exchange for a washed-up Randy Myers. The one other interesting name from the 1996 draft was Vernon Maxwell. I say “interesting” because not only does he share the same name as a pretty good basketball player, but also he was part of the deal that sent Hideki Irabu to the Yankees.

Thanks again for the heads-up, Jonathan. And if any of you haven’t visited PDX Beavers, be sure to do so. That’s your source for info on the Padres Triple-A affiliate in Portland.

Upcoming Series: Pads ‘n’ ChiSox

by Geoff Young on Jun 09, 2005 (1) Comments

Vince Galloro, of the excellently named and written “Exile in Wrigleyville,” and I had a chat Thursday night about this weekend’s Padres/White Sox series. It could have used more animosity, more fire, more cowbell, but overall I think we did a pretty solid job.

Check it out at Vince’s digs. Let him know if you like the format; let me know, for that matter. Maybe we’ll get some more of these going in the future.

Then the door was open and the wind appeared. The candles blew then disappeared. The curtains flew then he appeared (saying don’t be afraid)…

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Indians (9 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 09, 2005 (87) Comments

first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Adam Eaton (8-1, 3.48 ERA) vs Jake Westbrook (2-8, 5.30 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | SI | Padres.com

The Padres, who are now 1-6 in May June, try to avoid being swept by the Indians this afternoon. It’s hardly panic time, but with the Dodgers surging, the Friars need to get back to their winning ways. Jake Peavy turned in his second straight subpar performance Wednesday night, serving up three homers in a game for the first time since August 14, 2003, at Atlanta. Peavy has allowed three homers or more in just 5 of his 88 big league starts, and he’s generally come back very strong the following game (courtesy David Pinto’s Day By Day Database):

                    IP H R ER HR BB SO
23 Aug 2002 v Fla  7.0 7 2  2  0  0  8
27 May 2003 v Mil  8.1 5 2  2  0  2  5
21 Jul 2003 v StL  6.1 5 4  3  0  6  3
20 Aug 2003 v NYN  7.0 6 0  0  0  1  7

We can only hope that trend continues with his next start. Meantime, this afternoon’s contest sees two first-round picks from the 1996 draft square off against each other. Eaton was taken 11th overall by the Phillies, out of Snohomish HS in Washington; Westbrook was nabbed with the 21st pick by Colorado, out of Madison County HS in Georgia.

Shortstop Matt Halloran was the Padres first pick (#15 overall) in 1996. Another Padre, Brian Falkenborg, was the Orioles first pick (second round, #51 overall). Like Eaton, he hailed from the state of Washington. I wonder if those two ever faced each other in high school? Geez, what a horrible draft for the Padres that year. I believe Jason Middlebrook (ninth round) is the only guy who ever sniffed the big leagues.

How did we get on this tangent anyway? Let’s move on to the head-to-heads:

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Eaton vs current Indians     80 .225 .311 .388
Westbrook vs current Padres  27 .185 .207 .259

Jose Hernandez (.385/.429/.846 in 13 AB) has handled Eaton well over the years. Alex Cora (.194/.310/.278 in 36 AB) not so much, though no doubt he’s fouled off a ton of pitches. On the other side, Robert Fick (.333/.364/.444 in 9 AB) is the only Padre who’s seen Westbrook much.

Friars need some good Eaton today. With the best team in baseball on its way into town, now would be a good time to start winning.

Outta My Living Room

by Geoff Young on Jun 09, 2005 (13) Comments

First off, thanks to everyone for your support and words of encouragement as I made my television debut Wednesday night. My primary goal was to not suck, and I think I managed to accomplish that.

Second, thanks a bunch to Troy Johnson, Ed Barnes, Michael Saks, Katy Temple, and all the fine folks at Channel 4 for having me on Outta Left Field. Having experienced firsthand what they do, I’m pretty blown away by their ability to make it happen. Also, everyone made me feel totally comfortable on the set.

So, a few quick thoughts on the show and answers to some questions.

  • I got to meet Mark Grant, who was the first guest on the show. That was very cool. I know folks are pretty polarized on Grant as a broadcaster; personally I like the fact that he seems to have a genuine love for the game and that he never talks down to the audience. Nothing puts me off quicker than a broadcaster who knows it all and isn’t afraid to tell you so. Anyway, meeting Grant was cool.
  • No makeup. It was probably sweat. Very manly, you know.
  • Things you never think about in ordinary conversation but probably should before you go on live television: where to fix your gaze, where to place your hands, how to keep from fidgeting. The upside is I’ve discovered I do a pretty good Katherine Hepburn.
  • I love Syntax of Things.
  • Sorry I didn’t have a chance to take phone calls. Maybe next time.

We talked about blogs and blogging; how to get Xavier Nady into the lineup; and the good, cheap bullpen the Padres have assembled. It was fun. Send more cookies.

As for the game, if you can’t score after a leadoff triple off a guy with career ERA over 5.00, I can’t really be bothered to give much of an analysis. What the Pads are going through right now reminds me a lot of that stretch they had mid-June last year, when they dropped six of seven at Petco against Tampa Bay and Toronto.

It’s irritating, because you know the Padres are better than this and should be putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the NL West. On the other hand, what can you do? These are the same players that were winning 22 games in May. It’s a long season; they’ll get back on track. I just hope it’s soon, because the Dodgers are starting to make some noise.

Thursday’s game is at 12:35 p.m. PT. No television. I’ll post the In-Game Discussion tomorrow morning.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Indians (8 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 08, 2005 (81) Comments

[Update: Some folks may have missed this, so I'm putting it right at the top of the entry:

Ducksnorts on "Outta Left Field" on Channel 4 before Wednesday night's game (i.e., tonight)
Time: 5:30 - 6:30 p.m.
Loc: Hall of Fame Bar & Grill, Fifth Floor of Western Metal Supply Co. Bldg.]

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (5-0, 2.37 ERA) vs Scott Elarton (2-2, 5.53 ERA)

Pads lost a heartbreaker in Tuesday night’s opener. Brian Lawrence tossed eight shutout innings, but the Friars couldn’t muster up any offense against Cliff Lee. The Indians finally broke through with two in the top of the 11th off Trevor Hoffman following a Khalil Greene error. Greene rushed his throw on a ball hit by Ben Broussard – not the fastest guy in the big leagues – and Phil Nevin couldn’t dig it out of the dirt. Tough loss.

Wednesday night’s matchup features two former phenoms whose careers have taken decidedly different paths.

                            AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Indians    46 .196 .283 .348
Elarton vs current Padres  106 .255 .314 .500

Once upon a time, Elarton was a rising young star for the Houston Astros. Now he is a veteran just hanging on. Elarton, a right-hander, has been tougher against lefties (.269/.339/.413, with 25 SO in 104 AB) than righties (.327/.363/.522, just 9 SO in 113 AB) this year. Starting Xavier Nady somewhere might not be a bad idea. Then again, starting Nady seldom is a bad idea. Phil Nevin (.462/.467/1.077 in 13 AB) and Brian Giles (.333/.333/.600 in 15 AB) have had the most success over the years against Elarton. In an extremely small sample, Dave Roberts has never been retired by Elarton: he has three walks, two singles, and a double in six trips to the plate.

Peavy, meantime, is racking up a ton of no-decisions. Not that he’s focusing on such things, but the lack of wins will hurt his case when it comes time to vote for the Cy Young Award. I didn’t say it should hurt his case (it shouldn’t), I said it will hurt his case. Then again, judging from last year, the voters may not even know who Peavy is. Not much to go on in the head-to-heads. Alex Cora (.167/.273/.167 in 18 AB) is the only guy who has faced Peavy more than eight times. Broussard and Jody Gerut have homered off Peavy.

The matchup looks to favor the home team on paper. But as we’re fond of saying, the game isn’t played on paper. Because, you know, that’d be a really big piece of paper.

Bruce got it right in yesterday’s comments: The Padres need to win these next two to build some momentum going into the series against the White Sox. Fortunately for the Friars, their chief division rivals aren’t playing real well and haven’t been able to close the gap; the flip side, of course, is that the Pads haven’t put much distance between Arizona and LA. I’m pretty convinced the Padres are the best team in the NL West; now they need to start playing like it.

Finally, because I haven’t said it often enough, I’ll say it one last time. Ducksnorts is live on “Outta Left Field” tonight. Show starts at 5:30 p.m. Stop by the Hall of Fame Bar & Grill and say hi if you’re at the game. I’m told you can also call in if you’re watching on Channel 4. I don’t know how that works exactly; something to do with a telephone, I’d expect.

Oh, and if you’re just discovering Ducksnorts because of “Outta Left Field,” welcome aboard! Hang out and watch the game with some knowledgable and passionate Padres fans. C’mon, it’ll be fun. :-)

Draft Stuff

by Geoff Young on Jun 07, 2005 (2) Comments

It’s going to take a while for me to absorb all this information, so for now I’ll just link to a bunch of resources that I’m using to follow the Padres’ draft. Feel free to add your own, or talk about the Friars’ selections, etc.

Bios

Unless stated otherwise, these are from the player’s school.

  1. Cesar Carrillo. Also, Carrillo chosen in first round of draft (Padres.com).
  2. Cesar Ramos
  3. Chase Headley
  4. Nick Hundley
  5. Josh Geer
  6. Mike Baxter
  7. Seth Johnston. More here and here.
  8. Neil Jamison
  9. Max Venable. Also plays hoops; dad Max played in the big leagues.
  10. John Madden
  11. Casey Smith
  12. Josh Alley
  13. Josh Tomlin
  14. Aaron Breit
  15. Arnold Hughey
  16. Billy Richardson
  17. Josh Romanski
  18. Brent Carter
  19. Chad Decker
  20. Mike Sansoe

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Indians (7 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 07, 2005 (61) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (3-6, 5.35 ERA) vs Cliff Lee (6-3, 3.62 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS| SI | Padres.com

After starting the season 16-4 at Petco Park, the Padres have dropped four more in just seven games on the current homestand. They’ve followed a 22-6 May by losing four of their first five in June. The Indians come to San Diego with a 26-29 record; although they aren’t winning a great deal, the Padres shouldn’t make the mistake of looking past them to the White Sox, owners of MLB’s best record, who come to town next.

The Cleveland lineup features several good young hitters, including Travis Hafner, Coco Crisp, and Ben Broussard, as well as some others who aren’t doing as well this year but who have talent (Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez). The pitching matchups look to favor the Padres, though, and if they can execute properly and stay healthy, they should put themselves in position to take the series.

Also, as a reminder, I’ll be on “Outta Left Field” Wednesday night. Show starts at 5:30 p.m. Be sure to swing by the Hall of Fame Bar & Grill if you’re at the game or call in if you’re watching on Channel 4.

Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Jun 07, 2005 (18) Comments

I was thinking about Moneyball the other day, specifically about the finding that so much depends on the 1-1 pitch, and I got to wondering how the Padres are doing on various counts this year. Through June 6:

Count       Padres               Opponents
        AB   BA  OBP  SLG    AB   BA  OBP   SLG
 0-0   238 .298 .298 .462   250 .316 .318  .524
 0-1   208 .346 .344 .495   191 .325 .330  .419
 0-2   158 .146 .161 .190   182 .154 .154  .242
 1-0   178 .371 .367 .590   142 .331 .331  .577
 1-1   178 .337 .339 .579   213 .296 .303  .460
 1-2   293 .150 .162 .246   306 .167 .182  .232
 2-0    57 .421 .431 .667    50 .280 .280  .440
 2-1   145 .290 .284 .393   132 .409 .410  .705
 2-2   269 .212 .218 .323   288 .181 .182  .288
 3-0     6 .333 .931 .833     2 .500 .978 2.000
 3-1    53 .302 .721 .415    51 .373 .695  .627
 3-2   198 .258 .500 .399   195 .256 .465  .462

A few observations:

  • The Pads are putting the second pitch of an at-bat into play a lot more than are their opponents, and with greater success.
  • I probably should stop throwing a fit when a Padre batter swings 2-0. As a group, the hitters lose nearly 150 points of OBP and over 250 points of SLG on going from 2-0 to 2-1.
  • The Friars aren’t crippling as many pitches on three-ball counts as are their opponents. On counts of 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2, the Pads have 69 hits this year; 27.5% are for extra bases. The opposition has 70 hits, exactly half of which are for extra bases.

I’d be interested to see what league-wide splits by count are. Why do Padre hitters do so much better at 2-0 than 2-1, while the pitchers are the exact opposite?

Links

  • Scouts poring over draft data (MLB.com). Jonathan Mayo’s mock draft has the Padres taking LHP Cesar Ramos at #18. I don’t follow this stuff as closely as some others; for the best info on the Pads’ draft, check out San Diego Spotlight. Peter has been keeping tabs on everything, and I’m sure he’ll have some good reads for us over the next few days.
  • Conversation with Mobile’s Tim Hagerty (PDX Beavers). LynchMob mentioned this one in the comments to another post. The BayBears’ play-by-play announcer talks about his craft, as well as Padre prospects RHP Travis Chick, LHP Rusty Tucker, LHP Sean Thompson, 1B/OF Paul McAnulty, and more.
  • David at Baseball Savant sent me a link to his analysis of Tim Stauffer‘s June 2 start against the Cubs at Petco. I didn’t see this game personally, and I’m not sure where the radar readings are coming from, but Stauffer’s fastball has had a little more life on it when I’ve watched him. An interesting read, though.

The Cleveland Indians are in town for three games starting tonight. I’ll have Tuesday’s In-Game Discussion posted around 6:30 or so. Come join us as we talk about the game and whatever else is on our minds.

Music: Twelve Albums

by Geoff Young on Jun 06, 2005 (8) Comments

I hesitate to write about music, because it’s hard to do so without sounding like a pompous ass who is trying to impress people with their “ecclectic” and “sophisticated” tastes. But I’m not in the mood to talk baseball today, so I’ll give it a shot.

With that disclaimer, here are 12 albums (in alphabetical order by artist) that changed the way I think about music. Most of them I like, some not so much. All of them have made me think. Maybe they’ll do something for you, too. Or maybe there are other albums that move you?

  • Jeff Buckley, Grace. The late Buckley’s vocal range and command are his primary legacy, and they are definitely impressive. What hits me most about his material, though, are the unusual chord voicings he employs. A schooled musician, Buckley juxtaposes open strings and fretted notes to great effect, making his songs sound “larger” than they actually are. He was a brilliant singer, but also a great composer and arranger. Grace is a terrific listen.
  • Cocteau Twins, Heaven or Las Vegas. This now-defunct band from the UK created moods like no other. From Liz Fraser’s elusive and often incomprehensible vocal stylings, to Robin Guthrie’s overprocessed guitar sounds, to the tasteful use of sequencers and drum machines, these guys could weave some of the most hauntingly beautiful songs imaginable. Their earlier albums tended to be more aggressive and raw, but as their career progressed, melodies and sheer ambience came to the forefront. With its glasslike 12-string guitars dripping in chorus, insane feedback shrieks set against somber piano riffs, and passionate vocals, Heaven or Las Vegas is a sonic feast that continues to reward the listener even years later.
  • Kurt Elling, Close Your Eyes. Chicago jazz crooner incorporates beat poetry, vocalese, and heavy doses of improvisation into his work. His voice is distinctive and forceful, and his phrasing seldom predictable. It may take a while to get used to his style, but once you do, it’s a thing of beauty.
  • Grant Green, Green Street. This guitarist’s phrasing and tone are in a totally different league. Green Street was recorded in 1961 but still sounds fresh today. And although Green’s playing sounds free and easy, he is doing some pretty sophisticated stuff. The mark of a master: make what’s very difficult sound very easy.
  • Heavy Vegetable, Frisbie. Droning guitars, wandering vocal harmonies, elements of math rock, goofy lyrics, and a general sense of chaotic fun. Quirky songs that are really well assembled and delivered. Rob Crowe has since gone onto greater success with Pinback, whose songs are tighter and more polished than those of Heavy Vegetable. But for my money, the intensity of Crowe’s earlier work is pretty tough to rival.
  • Charles Mingus, Ah-Um. Recorded in 1959, this album from the great American composer and bassist is about as good as it gets. Once you’ve heard these tunes, they never leave you. It would be remarkable enough for any record to have the likes of “Better Git it In Your Soul” or “Goodbye Pork Pie Hat” on it; but Mingus somehow managed to create two absolute masterpieces and fit them on the same record. I don’t believe in “required listening” but Ah-Um makes me at least consider it.
  • Radiohead, OK Computer. This album is relentless. The guitar riffs sound familiar (Pink Floyd?) but the tone is perfect and all art is stolen anyway, so who cares. There is so much energy in the songs, and the album is so meticulously produced. The only clunker is the overindulgent “Fitter Happier” (think “Revolution No. 9″ from The Beatles’ White Album and you’re on the right track), but it’s not enough to mar an otherwise flawless record.
  • Rush, Hemispheres. Quick, name a band that has had the same lineup for 30 years. Yep, it’s Rush. This isn’t their best effort (I waver on that question), but it’s the one that made me see the possiblity of incorporating “movements” into rock music. Yes and King Crimson, to name but two others, did much the same but for whatever reason, they never demanded my attention in the way that Rush did (and still does). Hemispheres features many innovative ideas and great musicianship. Geddy Lee’s vocals are what they are; I know they’re a deal breaker for many, but I’m not going to debate that. Alex Lifeson’s guitar playing is, as always, fantastic.
  • Elliott Smith, Roman Candle. What stands out for me about this album is how strong the songs are. Roman Candle was recorded on a 4-track in Smith’s basement. There are literally no frills, but the vocal and guitar melodies are so beautiful and captivating that none are needed. This may or may not be Smith’s finest work, but it is among the most engaging and compelling.
  • They Might Be Giants, Pink Album. Many people first think of the odd lyrics, but I’m drawn to TMBG’s ability to create solid pop compositions with intricate arrangements despite the complete lack of a budget. Sure, the songs on the Pink Album are a little left of center, but thanks to fantastic craftsmanship, clever use of tape loops and drum machines, they absolutely work. Quirky. Inventive. Resourceful.
  • Andy Summers, Green Chimneys: The Music of Thelonious Monk. Summers is best known for his work with the Police, but his interpretations of Monk on guitar are rich and moving. If you only know Summers through his minimalist stylings in Sting’s old band, you’re missing a lot of what this guitarist has to offer. Beautiful album.
  • John Zorn, Cobra. I can’t actually listen to this one, but the concept behind it is fascinating. Plus I discovered Bill Frisell through Zorn’s work, and anything that introduces me to a musician of Frisell’s caliber can’t be all bad.

There it is. Padres are off today and begin a three-game set with the Cleveland Indians Tuesday night.

And remember, I’ll be on “Outta Left Field” Wednesday night. Show starts at 5:30 p.m. Be sure to swing by the Hall of Fame bar if you’re at the game or call in if you’re watching on Channel 4.