Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Jun 06, 2005 (4) Comments

Off-day today, and I don’t really have much to say about the debacle against the Cubs this weekend so it’s just links.

  • Peter at San Diego Spotlight talks a little about the results from John Sickels’ mock draft. Seems like everybody and their mother has the Pads taking Tulane left-hander Brian Bogusevic at #18. An interesting exercise. I look forward to Peter’s coverage of the real thing this Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Speaking of the draft, Padres’ scouting director Bill “Chief” Gayton gives a little insight into the thought process behind running the draft. Gayton acknowledges that “we’ve been using sabermetrics the last three years to some degree.” It is good to see a guy in a position like his even use the term “sabermetrics”; that’s not a backhanded compliment, it really is good to see. While we cannot know the organization’s exact methodology, it’s comforting to hear that they are taking a systematic approach of some sort. Not that I doubted that, but it’s good to hear nonetheless.
  • And the NC Times offers more draft thoughts. Writer John Maffei, who also is a correspondent for Baseball America, mentions Bogusevic, as well as Long Beach State’s Pedro Ramos, who is more polished but who has less upside.
  • Richard at Friar Faithful breaks down the improvement of Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy this year. I doubt there are any Padre fans who don’t echo Richard’s sentiment about getting Peavy locked up before the season to a long-term deal. That was a great move by Kevin Towers.
  • High-scoring teams take cue from their hitters atop order (ESPN, via Baseball Musings). Fascinating article by Peter Gammons. Quoth Tigers third baseman and leadoff hitter Brandon Inge: “There is no question that if one works at it enough, one can learn and improve plate discipline.”

That’s all for now. And remember, I’ll be on “Outta Left Field” Wednesday night. Show starts at 5:30 p.m. Be sure to swing by the Hall of Fame bar if you’re at the game or call in if you’re watching on Channel 4.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Cubs (5 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 05, 2005 (26) Comments

first pitch: 1:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (2-2, 4.84 ERA) vs Carlos Zambrano (3-3, 3.62 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS| SI | Padres.com

Several Padres are sick right now, including today’s original starter, Jake Peavy, who has lost nine pounds since contracting an upper respiratory infection earlier in the week. Others who are ill include Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko, which makes Xavier Nady‘s absence from Saturday’s starting lineup all the more baffling.

Nady eventually made it into the game, after things had gotten pretty well out of hand, and doubled and homered in three at-bats. I continue to be impressed by his ability to produce despite being completely buried at the end of the bench. Someday maybe he’ll get a chance to show what he can do in a more significant role. I hope it’s with the Padres, but who knows.

Williams was supposed to be making a rehab start at Elsinore this weekend, but due to Peavy’s illness, he gets the start this afternoon at Petco. Williams will be limited to 80 or so pitches today. It’s not the matchup that many of us had hoped for, but Woody is a pro. If he can just keep it close and hand it over to the bullpen, the Pads should be okay. Regardless of the outcome, today is the last time the Cubs and their fans will be in town this year.

The other good news is that, despite Saturday’s loss, the Padres actually gained a half game on Arizona, who dropped a doubleheader against the Phillies. The Friars now lead the NL West by 4 games and still have the NL’s second best record.

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Williams vs current Cubs    271 .303 .356 .502
Zambrano vs current Padres   89 .247 .316 .360

The key culprits against Williams have been Michael Barrett (.600/.667/1.000 in 10 AB), Todd Hollandsworth (.474/.500/1.158 in 19 AB), and Derrek Lee (.375/.444/.500 in 24 AB). Williams has handled Jeromy Burnitz (.143/.226/.393 in 28 AB) and Aramis Ramirez (.265/.286/.382 in 34 AB) pretty well.

Zambrano is holding opponents to a .193/.285/.319 line. I guess the best news is that he can be inefficient, so maybe the Pads can work some counts and get into the bullpen. Or maybe Zambrano’s e-mail elbow will flare up again. Klesko (.500/.545/.800 in 10 AB) is about the only Padre who has done anything against the big right-hander.

If you’re headed to the game today, as am I, remember that the Rock ‘N’ Roll Marathon is happening and the southbound 163 is closed until noon. The marathon site also recommends avoiding I-5, so your best bet if you’re coming from the north is probably I-805, then west on the 94 (which turns into F Street).

Here’s hoping the Pads can salvage the split today.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Cubs (4 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 04, 2005 (26) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Darrell May (0-0, 4.96 ERA) vs Greg Maddux (3-3, 4.08 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS| SI | Padres.com

Huge game from Adam Eaton Friday night. After a sluggish start, he completely shut down the Cubbies, most notably Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Eaton also singled, tripled, and scored two runs in the 6-2 victory. Akinori Otsuka also returned to form, getting the final four outs for his first save of the year.

On offense, the Pads were efficient and took advantage of opportunities. Eaton’s triple probably was the hardest hit ball of the night, but guys were able to find the hole, and when Neifi Perez threw wide of first on what should have been an inning-ending double play in the fifth, the Friars made San Diego native Sergio Mitre pay to the tune of four runs. It was also nice to see some good baserunning. Guys were getting good jumps and making nice slides. The Padres didn’t do anything that would make you stand up and take notice, but they executed well and they kept the Cubs on their heels all night. Good, fundamental baseball.

Saturday night features a matchup between two pitchers who have combined for 333 big-league victories. Of course, Maddux has 308 of those.

                           AB   BA  OBP  SLG
May vs current Cubs        35 .257 .297 .314
Maddux vs current Padres  211 .284 .311 .341

Brian Giles (.348/.444/.565 in 23 AB) and Ryan Klesko (.353/.389/.529 in 17 AB) have had success against The Professor. They have the only homers, and Giles somehow has drawn four free passes, which is amazing against a guy who has averaged 1.87 walks per nine innings in over 4000 innings.

Only Jerry Hairston (.222/.364/.222 in 9 AB) has faced May more than 10 times. Nomar Garciaparra has the best numbers, and he’s on the DL. A couple more interesting splits so far for May:

         AB   BA  OBP  SLG
vs LHB   32 .219 .278 .281
vs RHB  103 .330 .386 .544

      AB   BA  OBP  SLG
home  48 .188 .273 .271
road  87 .368 .411 .598

I won’t be able to join the festivities tonight (band rehearsal), so carry on without me. You stay classy, San Diego.

Ducksnorts on Television

by Geoff Young on Jun 04, 2005 (3) Comments

As those of you who read the comments already know, I will be appearing on Channel 4′s Outta Left Field this week. Here’s the dirt:

Date: Wed., Jun 8
Time: 5:30 – 6:30 p.m.
Loc: Hall of Fame Bar & Grill, Fifth Floor of Western Metal Supply Co. Bldg.

If you’re going to the game, swing by and join us. They will also be fielding phone calls, so if you’re not at the park, you can call in and chat.

Big thanks to the folks at Channel 4 for having me on the show. At the risk of sounding like a total suckup, it’s an honor to be asked and I’m really looking forward to this.

Five Reasons to Love Aki

by Geoff Young on Jun 04, 2005 (5) Comments

  1. his delivery
  2. his approach at the plate
  3. his theme song
  4. suraida
  5. yossha!

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Cubs (3 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 03, 2005 (47) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (7-1, 3.58 ERA) vs Sergio Mitre (0-0, 5.84 ERA)

It’d be nice to see the Pads jump out to an early lead so we don’t have to hear the so-called home crowd chant “Klesko sucks” again. Don’t get me wrong, I love Cubs fans, I just prefer the ones who are still in Chicago.

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Eaton vs current Cubs       146 .301 .356 .555
Mitre vs everyone (career)  306 .327 .386 .510

Pretty much everyone has had success against Eaton, so I won’t bother going into specifics. Where will Miguel Ojeda play tonight, and what will be the excuse for starting him over Xavier Nady? Only the shadow knows.

My attitude stinks. Is it the weekend yet?

Prospects from 1996, Revisited – Part 3

by Geoff Young on Jun 03, 2005 (2) Comments

3. A Tale of Two Prospects

In the first installment, we set out the motivation for this series and why it was worth exhuming, three years after the initial study. In Part 2 we looked at pairs of players who had been ranked similarly as minor leaguers and who had turned out to be very different big leaguers, and tried to determine what factors may have contributed to their paths diverging.

This time around, we put the microscope on two individual prospects whose careers didn’t necessarily turn out the way we might’ve expected given their minor league numbers and their pedigrees. And in so doing, we are reminded once again that although statistical evaluation is an extremely valuable tool in searching for answers, it is not infallible…

I like looking at stats to try and evaluate young players. I also like poking holes in the theory that numbers are all that matter. They do matter, no question; but they’re not, in and of themselves, the answer to anything meaningful. Here’s an example of the dangers of relying solely on statistical output to predict future greatness in prospects. The following two players spent the 1995 season in Double-A:

    Age Pos   AB   BA  OBP  SLG XBH BB  SO
JC   21  2B .440 .293 .379 .464  44 58  98
MC   22  CF .350 .249 .355 .429  36 54 104

John Sickels gave JC a grade of B, and MC a grade of C+. For kicks, here is what they did the previous season, at High-A ball:

     AB   BA  OBP  SLG XBH BB  SO
JC  464 .252 .324 .392  33 46  98
MC  468 .248 .343 .391  38 60 101

Okay, so here they look to be a little closer in terms of performance. But JC is still a year younger at the same level. Also, it may be helpful to note that JC was taken in the fourth round of the 1993 draft, out of college, while MC was taken in the 18th round in 1990, out of high school.

Who is the better prospect: The 22-year-old center fielder who has hit .243/.330/.361 in 1566 minor-league at-bats, or the 21-year-old second baseman who has hit .270/.349/.428 over 1084 at-bats? The numbers would suggest that it’s the latter.

If you’ve been here before, it probably won’t come as a shock to you that MC overwhelmingly has been the better big-leaguer. Here are their career stats through 2004*:

      AB   BA  OBP  SLG XBH  BB   SO
JC   596 .250 .304 .369  48  44  119
MC  4021 .248 .340 .440 413 529 1113

What happened? Simple: One kid developed, the other didn’t.

Why did it happen? Not so simple. My guess, and a cop out of sorts (or a way of saying I have no freakin’ idea), is that this is where non-quantifiable factors such as work ethic, attitude, opportunity, and the like come into play. Analytical types hate these things because we can’t measure them according to any obvious statistical output.

But intangibles do make a difference. It’s irritating that we can’t (or don’t know how to) plug them into a formula like we can other variables. Baseball would be so much easier if we could. Come to think of it, so would life.

But I’m not sure it would be as much fun…

*For the record, JC is Jay Canizaro and MC is Mike Cameron. Of the 515 prospects Sickels gave letter grades to in his 1996 book, only 11 players had more win shares through 2004 than Cameron: Derek Jeter, Scott Rolen, Bobby Abreu, Brian Giles, Vladimir Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Kendall, Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, and Edgar Renteria. All but Giles (B) and Posada (C) were given grades of B+ or better.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Cubs (2 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 02, 2005 (41) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Stauffer (1-1, 4.01 ERA) vs Glendon Rusch (4-1, 2.35 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com

The Padres couldn’t quite mount another late-inning comeback Wednesday night, as Geoff Blum‘s bid for a walk-off grand slam fell just shy. Still, there’s something to be said for the fact that this team never thinks it’s out of a game. They battle, and win or lose, that’s a good thing to see.

Tonight the Friars kick off a four-game series against the resurgent Cubs. Stauffer makes his fifth big-league start, while Chicago sends out a guy I thought the Pads might make a play for this winter. Rusch instead returned to the Cubs and is having a terrific year.

                              AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Rusch vs current Padres      133 .211 .279 .338

Stauffer has never faced any of the current Brewers (duh). Unexpectedly, the guys doing the damage for the Pads are Brian Giles (.250/.325/.500 in 36 AB) and, in a much smaller sample, Ryan Klesko (.571/.700/.571 in 7 AB). Ramon Hernandez has a homer in four at-bats. Geoff Blum (.136/.136/.136 in 22 AB) has struggled against Rusch but there aren’t a lot of options on the infield right now, so he’ll probably get the start.

We’ve talked about Stauffer’s lefty/righty splits (.286/.400/.524 vs LHB; .235/.286/.353 vs RHB), and the gap does appear to be narrowing. Thanks to Jonathan of the excellent PDX Beavers, we now can look at his splits at Portland over the past couple years:

             vs LHB                vs RHB
       AB  H HR BB SO   BA AB/HR   AB  H HR BB SO   BA AB/HR
2004  174 48 11 14 48 .276  15.8  144 35  4 12 18 .243  36.0
2005   84 20  1  4 17 .238  84.0   59 14  0  4 14 .237   inf
tot.  258 68 12 18 65 .264  21.5  203 49  4 16 32 .241  50.8

Small differences in batting average, but much more susceptible to the home run (at least in 2004; not so much this year). I guess this falls into the “still bears watching” department.

On an unrelated note, maybe those of us who are going to the Baseball Prospectus Pizza Feed on June 24 want to think about getting together ahead of time? I don’t have any specific ideas, it’s just a thought right now. I’m open to suggestions, etc.

Places to Go, Things to Read

by Geoff Young on Jun 02, 2005 (7) Comments

Unfortunately, the long weekend kind of threw my schedule so our next installment in the “Prospects from 1996, Revisited” series will have to wait. In the interim, here are some items of potential interest. Enjoy!

Cubs are in town. Tim Stauffer and Glendon Rusch hook up tonight at 7:05 p.m., PT. I’ll get the In-Game Discussion up sometime before then.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Brewers (1 Jun 2005)

by Geoff Young on Jun 01, 2005 (30) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (3-5, 5.11 ERA) vs Doug Davis (6-5, 3.89 ERA)

The Padres finish the month of May with a 22-6 record and are 33-19 overall. Everyone is contributing. Somebody gets hurt? Not a problem. Somebody goes into a slump? Not a problem. This is a deep, talented, and now confident ball club. Amazingly, they’re still flying below most folks’ radar, and you know what? That also is not a problem. Stay focused on the Yankees or whatever, just let the Pads play ball. Recognition is nice, but overrated; winning is better.

How good are things going for the Friars right now? Khalil Greene strikes out but ends up on second base thanks to a wild pitch and a throwing error by the catcher. Phil Nevin knocks his 1000th career hit, and it’s a triple. He now has six triples in over 3600 at-bats spanning parts of 11 seasons; by comparison, the Mets’ Jose Reyes has seven triples in 215 at-bats this year alone.

Lawrence is coming off a complete game victory at San Francisco. He returns to Petco, where his numbers are much better than on the road. In four starts at home this year, Lawrence is averaging over 7 innings per start. His ERA is 2.51, and he’s held the opposition to a tidy .213/.248/.269 line.

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Lawrence vs current Brewers  73 .205 .301 .301
Davis vs current Padres      71 .282 .333 .352

Small sample for both guys, so I won’t comment further. I’ll be out at the park tonight; talk amongst yourselves, and let’s keep the ball rolling. Did I mention that winning is fun?

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