Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Shameless plug time. Ducksnorts has been nominated for Best MLB Blog of 2005 over at Red Reporter. The polls are now open. You know what to do.

As always, thanks for your support.

The Padres have dealt Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and Billy Killian to the Rangers for Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge. [Update: Tip o' the cap to Nick G. for breaking this one in the comments to Tuesday morning's post.]

Understand that Aki is one of my all-time favorite Padres. And I still think Eaton could blossom into a frontline starter.

But I’m positively giddy about this trade. Why?

Well, Aki slipped quite a bit in his second run through the North American big leagues. His ERA more than doubled in slightly fewer innings, and most of his peripheral numbers deteriorated as well. Aki turns 34 next month, so it’s not like he was part of the core. Seriously, I love the guy but from an on-field perspective, he was expendable.

Eaton apparently wasn’t thrilled with the way the Padres were dealing with him this winter. Quoth Eaton: “I saw how they treated (Brian) Giles and (Trevor) Hoffman in negotiations, and it was disgusting. It doesn’t speak very well of them.” As opposed to dissing your employer in the media, I suppose.

There’s no doubting that Eaton has talent; what isn’t known is whether he’ll ever be able to stay healthy for an extended period of time and finally get that ERA under 4.00. His track record on both counts suggests no, but he’s still young. That said, I don’t like his chances in Texas.

What about Killian? On the one hand, he was ranked #14 by Baseball America coming into 2005. On the other, he’s an A-ball catcher in an organization that features bright prospect George Kottaras as well as lesser lights Nick Hundley and Colt Morton. Hey, Killian might turn out to be a good player someday, but it’s going to be at a position where the Padres are relatively deep and it’s not going to be real soon. No great loss there.

On the other side, Young is a former third-round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He eventually made his way to the Rangers via a stop in the Montreal organization (the Bucs dealt him to Les Expos for former Padre Matt Herges ― a trait Young shares in common with fellow rotation candidate Clay Hensley) and put together a very respectable 4.26 ERA as a rookie last season in one of the toughest pitching environments in baseball. Young’s hit prevention was just okay, but his K/BB ratio was a tick over 3-to-1, which is outstanding.

(BTW, if you’re thinking that Young will benefit hugely by moving out of Arlington, be aware that his home/road splits were almost non-existent. The upside, of course, is that anyone who can post an ERA near 4.00 in Texas must be doing something right.)

Another point working in Young’s favor is that he is very inexpensive. According to Hardball Dollars, Young is slated to make $500k next year and $600k the year after that. Given that his performance hasn’t been any worse than that of a guy who acts offended at the prospect of earning many times that amount, this is a no-brainer.

Honestly, I’d be okay if there weren’t any more to the deal than these first four players. But it gets better.

Gonzalez is a former first pick overall (Florida Marlins, 2000) who just rakes. He hails from Chula Vista, which fits in with the m.o. of acquiring hometown players. In the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2005, Gonzalez is compared favorably to Doug Mientkiewicz, who actually has had a better career than you might realize. Also this came before Gonzalez busted out with a .223 ISO at Triple-A last season, finally showing some power at the ripe old age of 23.

As for the third player coming to San Diego, aside from having one of the coolest baseball names ever, Sledge is a solid fourth outfielder type who could provide some left-handed pop off the bench. It’s like that commercial: He doesn’t make the deal; he makes the deal better. A 29-year-old outfielder with a career 5.37 RC/27? Yes, please.

Reaction around the blogosphere? Nobody seems to understand why the Rangers would make this deal. You can count me among them. I don’t get it, but I’m glad they did it.

I have to eat dinner. I’ll update the comings-and-goings table when I return.

[Update Dec 21, 2005 at 9:00 AM: Reaction from MSM: Baseball America, U-T, NCT]

So, I’ve been playing around with this Frappr! tool. Feel free to add yourself to the map so we can see how far the Ducksnorts empire stretches.

Other Stuff

• As mentioned the other day, I am working on Ducksnorts: Best of 2005. I’m compiling information now, then I’ll go back and add post facto commentary. So far I’ve gotten through September’s entries and we’re at 163 pages. Fun to relive the season.
• Nothing to do with baseball, but this is my new favorite podcast: Ricky Gervais Show. Gervais is the genius behind BBC’s hit show The Office. I have to warn you that there is some salty language in here; also be sure not to drink anything while listening, as it likely will come out your nose.

Okay, there you go. Add yourself to the Frappr! Ducksnorts map if you’re so inclined. Read 2005 in Review – Starting Pitchers, Part 1 if you haven’t already. Part 2, featuring Woody Williams and Adam Eaton, runs tomorrow.

Okay, here’s the plan. This week we’ll be looking at starting pitchers.

Mon: Brian Lawrence and Jake Peavy

Wed: Woody Williams and Adam Eaton
Fri: Tim Stauffer and Pedro Astacio

Next week we’ll wrap up the 2005 in Review series with the relievers.

Other stuff on the horizon:

• I’m working on a Ducksnorts: Best of 2005 that should be available for download by mid- to late-January. It will contain essays I’ve written throughout the year, as well as commentary on players. I did one of these in 2003 and folks seemed to like it. Since I missed last year, I think I’ll also include the 2004 Cal League road trip that Jeff and I took. The download will be free, with donations optional. The marketing types tell me this is a stupid idea but that’s how I’m doing it.
• Over at JD Arney’s Red Reporter, Ducksnorts has been nominated for the 2005 Sports Blog Awards. Voting starts this Tuesday (December 20) and runs through January 1. According to the site, “We’ll have some sort of graphic that winners and runners up will be able to display on their blogs.” You guys rocked in 2004 when Ducksnorts finished second in the World Series of Blogs. Maybe this time we can win it all. Any help you can provide in getting Ducksnorts a little more virtual bling is much appreciated.

And some links:

• Padres’ Prospect journal: Sean Thompson (Scout.com). The always entertaining left-hander checks in with the latest in the life of a prospect.
• Padres Donate $15,000 To Fisher House (Navy Compass). Nice feel-good piece about the Pads involvement in the community. Jake Peavy and Geoff Blum visited with injured Marines and Sailors.

To recap: Starting pitchers this week, relievers next week. Vote for Ducksnorts at Red Reporter starting Tuesday through Jan. 1. Ducksnorts: Best of 2005 available for free/donation mid- to late-Jan.

Now back to your regularly scheduled weekend…

Won’t they stop already? Just catching up on the latest flurry. New and improved chart at the end.

Chris Oxspring to Japan for Cash

The Padres have sold the contract of RHP Chris Oxspring to the Hanshin Tigers of the Japanese Central League for a reported $550k. On the one hand, I’m real sorry to see Oxspring leave without getting a chance to show the Padres what he can do. On the other, he’ll be 29 years old in May and probably will make a much better living over in Japan than he would have on this side of the Pacific. Oxspring was one of my favorites during his time at Elsinore, and I’m happy for his opportunity.

Pete LaForest from Tampa Bay off Waivers

LaForest has played parts of two seasons with the “big-league” Devil Rays, hitting .170/.223/.241 in 112 at-bats. He was Tampa Bay’s #11 prospect according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2004 after having been listed at #16 in the previous year’s edition.

From the 2003 book:

Signed as a third baseman, LaForest has made significant strides during his conversion to catching but remains far from a polished product behind the plate… LaForest’s greatest improvement has come with the bat. He makes solid contact and is able to drive the ball.

And from 2004:

He has good power from the left side and draws a good amount of walks… LaForest has a big swing and strikes out a lot, the main reason he never has hit better than .275 at any of his stops in the minors… He might be better suited to be a DH/first baseman/backup catcher than a regular backstop.

Executive summary: Upside is maybe a poor man’s Matt LeCroy? Don’t expect much.

Dave Roberts Re-signs

According to the U-T, it’s a 1-year deal for $2.25M. With the acquisition of Mike Cameron, Roberts moves to left field, where he is a pretty good defender. His lack of arm strength won’t be as much of a liability in left as it was in center, and with less ground to cover, maybe he can stay away from those nagging leg injuries and become a good base stealer again.

The Padres needed someone to bat leadoff, and Roberts did a capable job in that role last year. If he can duplicate that effort ― admittedly a big “if” given his age and how completely out of line his 2005 numbers were with anything he’d done since 2000 at Triple-A Buffalo ― Roberts will continue to be a valuable contributor.

The potential for decline, possibly precipitous, is undeniable. But I’ve doubted Roberts before and he proved me wrong in a big way this past season. I am hopeful that the move to a less demanding position will help him assuage my doubts once more.

The big downside is that we may not get to see what Ben Johnson can do this season. Then again, with Xavier Nady gone, we have to clamor for the Padres to free someone, right?

Ricky Steik to Detroit for Kenny Baugh

The Padres drafted Steik in the 7th round of the 2004 draft out of Golden West College. Beyond that, I don’t know a lot about Steik, but he didn’t show up on any of the Padres prospects lists I’ve seen. That happens with 21-year-old middle relievers in Low-A ball.

Baugh was selected 11th overall by the Detroit Tigers in the 2001 draft. Unfortunately he was ridden extremely hard at Rice and missed the entire 2002 season due to labrum surgery.

Prior to the injury, Baugh had been the Tigers’ #4 prospect in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2002. In the accompanying writeup, Baseball America said of Baugh, “He’s the frontrunner to be the first player from the 2001 draft to reach the majors.” Of course, he had the setback and still is waiting for the call.

In 2003, Baseball America ranked Baugh the Tiger’s #17 prospect, and the following year, he climbed to #10. In the 2005 book, he dropped all the way to #24. From that edition:

Baugh’s velocity got back to 88-91 mph last year, enough to get by because he commands an average curveball and changeup. The key for him is to stay on top of his pitches, because his fastball and curve flatten out when he drops down.

I dunno, can he be any worse than Ismael Valdez was a couple years ago? Baugh essentially takes over Oxspring’s role as a guy who the Padres can bring up from Portland to make the occasional spot start if needed. And of course, he didn’t cost much. So the net is that the Friars gave up a Low-A reliever to free up half a million bucks. From a baseball standpoint, this series of moves is the equivalent of treading water. From the business side, though, it’s pretty slick.

For grins, here’s how Baugh and Oxspring fared at Triple-A last year:

          Age    IP  ERA  H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9
Baugh      26 165.1 3.38 8.66 3.27 5.82 0.71
Oxspring   28 160.2 4.03 8.29 2.35 7.00 0.84

Reaction from the Tigers blogosphere is lukewarm: Detroit Tigers Weblog, Tiger Tales, TigerBlog.

Robert Fick to Washington as Free Agent

According to MLB.com, the deal is worth $850k for 1 year. I hate to see Fick leave because he’s such a gritty player. On the downside, his ISO had dropped every year since 2001. Last season’s .100 wasn’t nearly enough for a corner infielder/outfielder (Neifi Perez even managed an ISO of .108). So I’m sorry I won’t get to watch Fick play next year, but I understand that he can be replaced.

Ramon Hernandez to Baltimore as Free Agent

The deal is reported to be 4 years for $27.5M. That’s not quite the 4 years for $34M I predicted in March but it’s still wacko money for a 30-year-old catcher who has missed 114 games the past two seasons.

As with Fick, I’m sorry to see Hernandez leave. But I’d hate to be the Orioles right now or, say, in 2008. You think Phil Nevin was tough to move. Heh.

Doug Brocail Signs as Free Agent

Okay, technically this one hasn’t happened yet, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to dedicate an entire entry to Doug Brocail when it does. Reports are that the deal will be 1 year for $1M.

Brocail, you may recall (or not), was the Padres first-round pick in the January regular phase of the 1986 draft. Yep, he was around when there was a January phase of the draft. He played for the Padres before Trevor Hoffman ever came to San Diego. He was part of the December 1994 deal that brought Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley to the Friars. Two of the players in that trade have passed on. Dude has been around a while.

Brocail also isn’t a bad pitcher. At least he wasn’t before last season. Brocail did a decent job for the Rangers in 2004, but his best years came in Detroit, from 1997 to 1999.

Brocail will be 39 this season and he’s coming off a down year. At his age, it’s hard to know whether that was a blip or the beginning of the end. For $1M, the Padres are about to find out. Have I mentioned lately that this was a good winter to be a free agent reliever?

Thanks to Richard B. Wade for the heads-up in Monday’s comments that Baseball America‘s Padres Top 10 prospects list is now available. I’m preparing a lengthy post for Wednesday morning that has nothing to do with this, so I can’t comment much other than to say these names look a lot better than what we’ve seen in a while.

Here’s the list:

1. Cesar Carrillo, rhp
2. George Kottaras, c
3. Josh Barfield, 2b
4. Ben Johnson, of
5. Chase Headley, 3b
6. Clay Hensley, rhp
7. Jared Wells, rhp
8. Paul McAnulty, 1b/of
9. Nick Hundley, c
10. Freddy Guzman, of

Interesting that Rule V draftee Steve Andrade has the best slider. Anyway, head on over and check out BA’s coverage. Kevin Goldstein will be doing a live chat at 11 a.m. PT Wednesday. I may not be able to participate, so go represent.

I’ve been profiled over at Bill Ferris’ BaseBlogging. Check it out if you’re so inclined.