We continue our look back at the 2005 season today with one of the most problematic positions for the Padres, first base. Nobody started more than 70 games there for the Friars, none of them fielded the position particularly well, and none of them hit well enough to justify the poor defense. Basically, the black hole that existed for many years at catcher and/or shortstop has moved to first base.
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | SEC | RC/27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10. |
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| Padres first basemen | .262 | .324 | .407 | .081 | .145 | .238 | 4.72 |
| MLB rank | 22 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
Veteran Phil Nevin saw most of the playing time but was traded to Texas in August. After that, the position was split among Mark Sweeney, Xavier Nady, and Robert Fick.
Phil Nevin
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
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| 2004 | .289 | .368 | .492 | .106 | .203 | .367 | 6.45 | 128 |
| 2005 | .237 | .287 | .379 | .065 | .142 | .322 | 3.74 | 79 |
The 2005 numbers include Nevin’s time with the Rangers. Remarkably, after moving to a much better hitting environment, his game deteriorated even further. With the Pads, Nevin hit .256/.301/.399.
Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:
Defensively, Nevin is less likely to get injured at first base than he was at third. He has decent range and quick reflexes, but his footwork around the bag can get sloppy and he doesn’t always help his infielders on tough throws. Nevin was one of the more outspoken critics of the spacious dimensions of Petco Park, but he actually managed to put up decent numbers there (.265/.364/.465). If he can concentrate on driving the ball to the power alleys and not worry so much about home runs, he’ll continue to produce for the Padres.
Positives
- Was willing to do anything to try and help the team, including getting back behind the dish when needed.
- Despite uncertain role with the club, kept relatively quiet and left San Diego with class.
Negatives
- Every aspect of game regressed in a big way.
- Bat slowed, no longer able to drive ball with authority to all fields.
- Kept Xavier Nady from getting a legitimate opportunity to play and develop.
Outlook
Unless something remarkable happens, Nevin’s days as a regular are behind him. He’ll be 35 next year, he doesn’t have a defensive position, and he doesn’t hit enough to DH full-time. The best hope is that he returns to form against LHP (against whom he hit .332/.418/.614 from 2002 to 2004, but just .205/.292/.362 last season) and can be a platoon DH for the Rangers. Seems like a waste of money when there are guys like Olmedo Saenz out there who can do a better job for a fraction of the cost.
Mark Sweeney
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
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| 2004 | .266 | .377 | .508 | .149 | .242 | .489 | 6.75 | 110 |
| 2005 | .294 | .395 | .466 | .150 | .172 | .323 | 6.59 | 136 |
Sweeney established career highs in plate appearances, hits, walks, batting average, and on-base percentage, and tied career marks in doubles and RBI. In a season where the Padres never could figure out what to do at first base, Sweeney was asked to do too much. But despite wearing down toward the end of the year and the usual struggles against LHP, Sweeney did a stellar job, especially in light of moving from the best hitting environment in baseball to one of the worst.
Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory: “Sweeney essentially replaces Terrence Long as the left-handed bat off the bench.”
Positives
- Professional hitter with a great batting eye and ability to drive mistakes.
- Great guy to have on the bench, keeps the team loose.
Negatives
- Overexposed as a regular, hitting just .269/.365/.359 after Nevin’s departure.
- Non-factor against LHP, hitting .200/.320/.200 in just 20 at-bats.
- Made crucial baserunning blunders down the stretch and struggled defensively at first, especially on throws to second or home.
Outlook
Still a terrific left-handed bat off the bench, Sweeney generally swings at strikes and can drive the ball to right and right-center. Limit his duties to pinch hitting and he can be a great asset to a ball club. If the Padres can re-sign him at or near the 1 year/$550k he received in 2005, by all means they should bring him back. And they should make sure to have a solution in place at first base so that Sweeney can return to the role in which he excels, that of pinch-hitter extraordinaire.
Xavier Nady
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
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| 2004 | .247 | .301 | .416 | .059 | .169 | .368 | 3.85 | 90 |
| 2005 | .261 | .321 | .439 | .062 | .172 | .353 | 4.79 | 106 |
Bear in mind when looking at these numbers that Nady had only 77 at-bats in 2004. The Padres appear reluctant to commit one way or another to Nady, which doesn’t help him or the club. This attitude seems a little strange for a team that could use a right-handed power bat in the lineup. It also doesn’t give Nady a chance to improve on his areas of weakness. He’s probably not a true impact player, but there’s no reason to think that he couldn’t put together a Nevin-type career if given the opportunity. Eventually Nady will get a chance. When and where are the questions.
Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory: “Nady will see time at all three [outfield] spots, as well as the infield corners. He is out of options, and the Padres intend to get him 300-400 at-bats this year.”
Positives
- Terrific power to all fields.
- Played well when given the chance, which wasn’t very often. Nady’s season high in consecutive games started was 9 (April 4 – 17, in center field when Dave Roberts started the season on the DL) and he started 8 or more games in a row just three times. What he did in those games and the way he did it are revealing:
Xavier Nady: Eight or More Consecutive Starts AB BA OBP SLG BB/PA ISO XBH/H Stats courtesy of David Pinto’s Day by Day Database. Starting 8+ consecutive games 100 .300 .314 .590 .010 .290 .500 Other 226 .243 .324 .372 .083 .129 .273 Nady hacked at everything and hit most of it hard when given the chance. Check out the high ISO and low BB/PA when Nady plays. They seem to say, “Look what I can do; please don’t take me out of the lineup.” Obviously there’s a lot that Nady needs to work on, but the foundation is there.
- Never complained despite Padres apparent confusion over how best to utilize him.
Negatives
- Adequate at several defensive positions, but not real good at any one of them (probably best at corner outfield spot; also was an above-average first baseman in the minors before moving to the outfield).
- Susceptible to fastballs up, breaking balls down and away; gets overanxious at the plate (like Nevin).
- Doesn’t appear to be viewed as an everyday player by some within organization.
Outlook
Nady is at a crossroads. He’s at a point in his career where he should be improving, and possibly by a lot. He has many of the same strengths and weaknesses that Nevin had at a similar stage of development. Nady won’t be a star — his most similar players through age 26 are mostly “tweeners” — but the Padres would do themselves and Nady a great service by at least trying to see what he’s capable of doing on a regular basis.
Nady could blossom into a pretty capable regular if given the opportunity. Whether that happens in San Diego remains to be seen. If the Padres don’t envision Nady as a part of their future, they would do well to move him to another team and get something in return that they can use. Having Nady sit around on the bench isn’t helping anyone.
Robert Fick
Summary
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB/PA | ISO | XBH/H | RC/27 | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
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| 2004 | .199 | .277 | .319 | .087 | .120 | .289 | 2.92 | 58 |
| 2005 | .265 | .340 | .365 | .100 | .100 | .246 | 4.40 | 94 |
Fick bounced back from a miserable 2004 to put together a mediocre season off the bench for the Padres. He doesn’t really have much power anymore, and most of his value comes from the fact that he is a “gritty veteran” and he can still get behind the plate in an emergency. Fick wore down as the season progressed, hitting just .227/.318/.295 after the All-Star break. Oddly, he also hit lefties better than righties last year.
Expectations
None.
Positives
- Good line drive bat, especially off the bench.
- Adequate defender who can do a tolerable job at many positions.
- Like Sweeney, a great guy on the bench who keeps teammates loose; a real battler.
Negatives
- Substandard power for a regular first baseman (ISO has declined each year since 2001: .204, .163, .149, .120, .100).
- Like many Padres reserves in 2005, overexposed as a regular due to injuries.
Outlook
Fick is a younger, more versatile, less potent version of Sweeney. He will find a spot on someone’s bench due to versatility and leadership qualities, but he’s well past his peak and probably shouldn’t be counted on for much in terms of actual production at this point.
Did Nady really play well when given a chance?
Decent April playing most of the time. Good May with only 29 at-bats. Great June, again playing half the time, but it was a Supersize Deivi Cruz kind of great. Hack at everything (304 OBP), hit a lot of balls hard. Rewarded with more playing time in July, fell back. Rewarded with more playing time in August, hit so poorly that he lost his starting job. Played about half-time in September and had his worst month.
Can’t say if Magadan could have helped more, either teaching him to be more patient or convincing Bochy to keep playing him so he wouldn’t feel like he had to hit one out every game. Maybe Nady just picked a bad couple of months to have a slump. But you can’t really say he didn’t get consistent playing time.
Tom, the biggest complaint I have with Nady’s PT is that he never got more than nine starts in a row at any point during the season. It was difficult for him to get into any kind of rhythm. Every time he was given the chance to start more than a handful of games, he responded quite well.
Tom Waits is a Padre fan and reads Ducksnorts?? I met his aunt in Lou’s Records in Leucadia once. Nice lady.
Very interesting Geoff. I’m glad you did this. I felt this lack of consistent playing time was an issue, and while your numbers may not prove it, they do provide some food for thought. I also feel like the demands of playing so many different defensive positions has a detrimental effect on a player’s offensive development. That is to say it takes a lot of mental energy to play the field when it is not second nature (and moving from one spot to another does not allow for it to become second nature; you are always thinking about what to do with the ball, where to position yourself, how to react, etc.).
I would really love to see what Nady would do if given a starting position at LF or 1B and told to “relax, because you’re going to be there all year. The only thing you need to work on is cutting down the front leg kick and swinging at pitches in the zone, other than that you’re our everyday starter at position Y.”
Agree with Pat about X’s position.
He did seem to do better with regular playing time.
I’m wondering if all the minuscule PT towards the end was because he was tiring or he was pressing with every AB.
I’m concerned with his BB/PA with regular playing time. Maybe if he’s given the reassurance of getting a position with time off occasionally he won’t pressured himself much into having to produced HR with every swing.
Good job, Geoff.
I’m looking at the game log and I don’t see that at all.
April: Starts 16 games, hits pretty well.
May: Starts only 5, hits better than in April.
June: Starts 14, has his best month yet.
July: Starts 15 and is mediocre at best
August: Starts 16 and tanks. He had a great chance to get into a rhythm here, starting 13 of the last 16 (15 of 18 if we extend it into Sep), including 8 in a row and 10 of 11 between Aug. 14 and Aug. 30. His OPS dropped 30 points during that stretch, and if we grab those 2 starts in September, it dropped 40.
Bouncing around didn’t hurt him in July (919 OPS). I don’t see how not starting more than 9 games in a row can be blamed for his second-half failings when he started with the same or lesser frequency in other months and hit well. Sometimes continuous starts helped him, sometimes they didn’t.
Thanks, Pat. To be perfectly clear to everyone (not that you’re saying this, just want to put it out there), the numbers I ran absolutely do not prove that Nady will be a stud if he plays everyday. The only demonstrate that this year, when he was able to string together more than a few starts in a row, he hit much better than when he sat more.
Nady still is a work-in-progress (his K:BB ratio in those 100 AB was a remarkable 23:1; there’s no way he can sustain that and be an effective big-league hitter). The main point I’m trying to make with him is that he’s at least shown the ability to be a solid contributor when given the chance.
I think your final parapgraph nails it. This is something I would like to see the organization do with more of its young hitters. And I understand the argument that it’s harder for a team in a pennant race to take chances, especially on less proven players, but I don’t believe that makes it right.
Need an example? Willy Taveras, although overrated by many (ROY? get real), is a guy the Astros had that could fill a need. He has a lot of holes in his game, but instead of focusing on what he *couldn’t* do, Phil Garner and co. found some things in his game that they could use to their advantage and did it.
Tom: The Aug 19-27 stretch you mention was his worst output during the 8+ consecutive start runs, and he still hit a respectable .265/.286/.471:
http://tinyurl.com/dx4gx
I know it’s a small sample, but when the Padres did hand Nady a starting position (1b) and gave him a nearly continuous run at it, he basically forced Bochy to go back to Sweeney against RHP. It’s easier to question it now since St. Louis swept us, but we were fighting for our lives in August. Sweeney had a 200 point advantage in OPS over Nady that month.
I’d like to see them give Nady the keys to one position, too. Preferably 3b. What else are we going to do with him? He’s 27 with a spotty major league track record. He’s out of options. Not going to bring you what he once would have in a trade and neither the trade nor the FA market is a good place to find a 3b.
It’s hard for me to see a 286 OBP as respectable. The power’s nice.
The main problem is that when the team traded Nevin and gave Nady the first base job, something that you might think would have helped him relax, he continued to do the same thing. He went up there hacking. 13 K’s, 1 walk. Now, maybe that was just a slump. Lord knows it was only a hatful of ABs. Still, I don’t see how people get that what he needed was to not be looking over his shoulder. He hit better when he was looking over his shoulder. Maybe looking back was helping him keep his shoulder closed.
First, that databsae is the coolest thing ever. Or at least the coolest thing I’ve seen today.
Second, damn, Nady, take a walk.
4-08 to 4-17, 9 starts, 0 walks, 7 k.
6-24 to 7-02, 8 starts, 1 walk, 7 k.
8-19 to 8-27, 8 starts, 0 walks, 9 k, 1 HBP.
I just don’t see the signs that he was “pressing” when he was starting infrequently. When Bochy did start him he pretty much pressed, if we measure pressing in terms of swinging at everything trying to stay in the lineup.
Yeah, Tom, that is a great database. Maybe I worded it badly, but it’s not so much that Nady was pressing when he *wasn’t* starting as often, as that he really started hacking when he got in there. Sort of a variation on the old “can’t walk off the island” theme. Don’t think I can swing the bat? Here, I’ll show you.
I think any attempt to distinguish between Nady’s prowess with consistent vs. spotty playing time is pretty futile. Where do you draw the line? How can 8 consecutive starts be considered “consistent ab’s” while 7, 6, or 5 etc. is not? How can a 100-AB sample of anything from one season be worth anything? Either one of you (Geoff or Tom) could be very right, but I’ll be damned if either of you prove it.
Eric: You’re right, this doesn’t *prove* anything. It’s just an interesting observation that *suggests* a possibility.
You’re right, Eric. We should probably restrict ourselves to sniping from the sidelines. Shame on us for trying to shine our flashlights around so maybe we’d stumble on the path to the truth.
Aah, the off season discussions. I love it.
The only thing that’s still true is that X didn’t talk enough walks whether or not he got enough continuous ABs. I don’t know if he got exploited by ML pitchers or not. I think there were a thread during the season that showed X to be a better hitter against lower-tiered ML pitchers. This, of course, is true for every hitters in the MLB.
Having said that, I still would like to see X in regular lineup situation and hoping he’ll be another Nevin. Of course, as Tom pointed out and Geoff in many occasions, the Padres has yet to try X at 3B. So, maybe this off-season he’ll learn that position again. I still like Burroughs’ glovework at the corner and hopefully, he’ll hit more XBHs.
Does this mean that Klesko is definitely going to 1B? I have no idea.
What about Bochy’s argument (I heard him say this on 1090) that Nady performed as well as he did because Bochy was picking his spots, starting him against the pitchers he thought Nady could handle? I don’t think there’s any way of knowing if that’s true but as much as I’d like to be mad at Bochy for not playing Nady more I think it’s a reasonable defense of Bochy’s actions.
In any case they really need to just throw him out there for a full season and see what he can do. The leg kick doesn’t bother me at all, it’s nice to see some individuality but the lack of patience at the plate is obviously a major problem.
Didi: Yes, The Fathers posted a very helpful list showing who Nady hit his home runs against. I’ll see if I can dig that up again. As he and others have pointed out, Nady still has trouble laying off (and hitting) good fastballs up and breaking balls down and away.
Anthony: This is a situation where it’s impossible for any of us to know. I find Bochy’s statement compelling in many ways. After all, who better than the manager to know his players strengths and weaknesses?
From a fan perspective, what is frustrating to me is not having a better idea at the end of the year what kind of player we have on our hands in Nady than at the beginning of the year. One way or the other, it’d be nice to know.
Incidentally, we’re not the only ones thinking about Nady:
http://tinyurl.com/84ejk
I was non-committal about Nady last spring, but hopeful based on his 2004 AAA production. Nady was a legitimate prospect.
After watching Nady this season, I’m very pessimistic. Sure a quick bat with power is attractive, but good MLB hitters learn and adjust. Nady never seems to get there. Some folks have blamed Mags for all the Padres hitters problems, either because they take too many pitches, are impatient at the plate, because he turns sluggers into slappers, etc.. I don’t know if it’s appropriate to lay these problems on the hitting coach, but at this point, the Padres should be looking at making a change there, because the Padres hitters just aren’t “developing”.
When the Padres were doing well last May, the one thing I noticed was INTELLIGENT hitting. They took pitches when it made sense, and they tried to pull the ball in the right situation, in the right count.
Nady seems like one of those guys who just can’t figure it out. With 1 out, guys on 1st and 2nd, perhaps the first guy got on base on 4 straight pitches and the next guy now on 1st by a HBP on the second pitch, Nady goes up and hacks at the first pitch. Not only does he swing at the first pitch, but he swings at a ball either way out and away, or up near the shoulders. In a situation where he should be taking, even if the pitcher throws meat down the middle the first two pitches, instead, Nady is hacking. He’ll go out on three pitches, giving the pitcher a chance to regain his confidence and get back into the ball game, rather than letting the pitcher hang himself.
Similarly, in situations where the opposing pitcher has thrown perhaps a 70/30% strike to ball ratio, and a Padre runner is on 3rd with two outs in a close game, Nady will start taking close pitches for strikes, and then swing widely at the third pitch in the dirt.
It’s as if Nady doesn’t have a plan when he walks to the plate, doesn’t have confidence he can hit successfully on two strikes, doesn’t adjust to changes in circumstances while at the plate, and either is unwilling or unable to learn. He’s got the bat, he’s got the eye, he’s a nice guy, but he just doesn’t seem to have the “head” to be a successful MLB hitter. It’s sad, because I’d like to see every young guy succeed, and the Pads could sure use a successful hitting prodigy.
Okay, I’m starting to wonder if “Tom Waits” is THE Tom Waits.
He does have San Diego connections, you know.
And regarding 1B, one thing I wouldn’t do to address it for 06 is throw big money at Konerko.
Not that anyone here might suggest such a thing. I was just trying to be proactive.
Towers’ love of slow, white, thirty-something (he’ll be 30 before next season starts) players from the left end of the defensive spectrum always makes me nervous.
Scott: You may be onto something about Nady and confidence. He does get overanxious. I do wonder if that’s something that might be alleviated with more reps, though. Maybe, maybe not.
Lance: I’d be surprised if they threw money at Konerko. Wasn’t the Nevin deal motivated at least in part by the fact that this team is loaded at 1B/LF/RF? Seriously, give Jon Knott a chance before signing a guy like Konerko (whom I actualy like).
As for Tom Waits, I have no idea if that’s him but if it is, I’d like to thank him for, among many other things, “The Heart of Saturday Night.”
No, I’m not the real Tom Waits. I’m nowhere near musically sophisticated enough to use his name as a nom de plume. Lightning should strike me for even trying. But now I’ve backed myself into a corner, and Tom Waits I shall remain.
I’m not sure that Nady doesn’t have a plan. I suspect his plan is what has always worked for him. Try to hit the ball hard. Scott may be right in suggesting that his big problem is not adapting his plan now that pitchers seem to have found his holes.
Padres.com ran a piece claiming that the Padres don’t see Nady as a third baseman. If that doesn’t pop his value like a balloon, it sure doesn’t give him any more air. They don’t want Ben Johnson to play CF, they want to resign Giles, those are your two corner OF. Will Nady hit enough at 1b, and will he turn into a better defender there?
TW: Good questions about Nady. I’m not sure Nady will hit enough at 1B but I suspect he might. I do think he’ll turn into a better defender there once he gets more experience. He was a very good defensive first baseman in the minors, and I don’t imagine he’s lost those skills.
Very interesting analysis on Nady. One problem with doing this for Nady is that he seems to resemble Kahlil Greene most as a hitter, very streaky. Even in the big season he put up in Portland, he was still a streaky hitter (his batting average ranged from .278 to .381 at Portland).
The point is Nady is likely to go 7-12 in one series, with four extra base hits. Then go 1-12 in the very next one. In the end the numbers will be there, but like Greene he has a lot of moving parts in his swing, and in order for him to perform the Padres should either commit to playing him everyday, or having him move on. In my opinion, he is never going to be effective as a spot player.
The Padres keep Greene in the lineup everyday, and should do the same for Nady in 2006. One way or the other, the team should find out what it does or doesn’t have.
John, that’s a great point about the moving parts in his swing and similarity to Khalil. I hadn’t made the connection but you’re absolutely right.
Khalil’s 2005 isn’t a ringing endorsement. Pushed up in the order and away from those free 8 hole passes, he turned into a 261 EQA hitter with a miserable 297 OBP. Maybe just a soph slump. More likely that his walks dropped by 50% because he wasn’t hitting 8th as much. Even when he did hit 8th this year his walks dropped badly compared to 2004. Was it a change in approach or exploitation by pitchers? Only the Shadow knows.
If Nady’s not traded this winter, by all means, play him 90% of the time. But it’s possible that all we’ll find out is that he’s a semi-platoon player who should get 300 carefully apportioned at-bats against lefties and finesse righties. His trade value isn’t that high, so we don’t have much to lose in the exploration.
Best case, Nady gets his BA against righties to 280 or so. That’d float his overall production high enough to earn a starting job. It’s what turned Nevin’s career around.
No, Khalil’s 2005 isn’t a ringing endorsement, but I think that he and Nady do share many characteristics as hitters. It’s possible (and likely) that Nady’s weaknesses will be exposed with increased playing time. The real question is whether he can make the necessary adjustments and if so, to what degree.
Your best case seems about right to me as well. Nady probably isn’t going to be a total stud, but he could be a piece of the puzzle as a #5 or #6 type hitter for the next few years. I think the Nevin comp suits him well.
I suppose I’m still reacting to the claim that all Nady needs is consistent playing time. Consistent playing time doesn’t necessarily solve things.
Nady and Greene may still be evolving, and past performance isn’t a straitjacket. But it’s also possible that both players need to be carefully managed, not just run out there in the middle of the lineup against everybody.
In other words, maybe Bochy does know what he has in Nady.
Some valid points Tom, I guess the only counter I can think off is I would just like to know,one way or another, what Nady can or can’t do. In my opinion, just about everyone on the Padres is up and down at the plate, Nady just seems to be the only that is punished for it.
Right now, I would much rather see X with 500 ABs than Klesko.
It’s easier to think about Nady playing everyday in 2006, or at least at the start of 2006. When he supposedly “lost” playing time in 2005, Bochy was trying to flog the team into the playoffs. Unfortunately, none of his 1b players made it easy on him.
The same thing could happen next season if we find ourselves competing. Klesko still hits righties, still gets on base. If we give Nady 90% of the starts until the All-Star break and he’s at 260/310/430, with the team 2 games out, are we going to fault Bochy for cutting back his time?
No, I think if Nady is playing everyday *and* not being productive, then Bochy has every right to (and darned well better) look for other alternatives. But we need to see what Nady can do if he gets 90% of the starts for more than a 2-week stretch here and there. All I’m personally asking for is to give the guy a chance. If he can’t do it, he can’t do it. But we won’t know until it happens.
He does turn 27 next year, generally a good age to play a guy a lot. Maybe he’ll be a Richie Sexson type without the unholy leverage. Spotty as a part-timer, comes into his own in his late 20s. Might as well find out, he’s getting closer to his expensive years every minute and he’s not likely to fetch a lot in trade.
Tom’s comments about Nady perhaps being a late bloomer are spot on. I think Burroughs, Nady, and Green for that matter came up with a heavy burden on their shoulders: Justifying 5-6 years of low productivity from the Padres farm system.
Yes, we have stars (Peavy, probably Eaton) and probable stars (Green), but as most will admit, for all the top draft picks the Pads have had since 1998, they’ve got very little to show for it, particularly with position players. It’s both comical and sad that folks lean so hard on Burroughs, and he just turned 25 years old last September. Every new rookie that comes up is the great next hope. Its nice to have the opportunity to get to the “Bigs”, but I almost feel sorry for Ben Johnson, for example. Padres fans have been in such a drought for talent, unless Johnson puts up Pujols or Bonds types of numbers, some will still be disappointed. The pressure on these guys is huge.
Then look at Mark Loretta’s career. By his own admission, he didn’t “get it”, i.e. turn the corner on hitting, and in particular hitting knowledge until he was 30. So, no way have I given up on Nady or Burroughs.
Hmmm.. this is still supposed to be a thread about first base. Well, what the heck, I’ll toss this in anyway.
It’d be better if the Pads just declared 2006 a rebuilding year – period. Disadvantage: $$ problems at the gate (dishearted fans may not show up), but that could be managed. Advantage: Nady, Burroughs, Green, Johnson, Barfield, Oliva, Hensley and others get playing time, in a low-pressure environment. The Padres shed a huge amount of salary in 2007 (maybe sooner, if Klesko, Park, maybe Hoffy decide to finish their remaining professional careers with contenders in 2006). The Pads can find out who came to play during 2006, and will have money in 2007 to fill in the talent-gaps revealed by the end of the season. They won’t find out of they play Klesko/Roberts/Giles in the OF, Mark Sweeny or Fick at 1st, Loretta at 2nd, Randa (or equivalent) at 3rd, Hernandez at the plate, or Hoffy to close, for that matter. Rebuild in 2006, but ACTUALLY rebuild, and spent some serious cash in 2007 on FA’s as needed.
Geoff, great discussion on 1B. One thing I didn’t see mentioned was Fick’s defense; he was well above average in his limited opportunities, and I think he got an honorable mention in that Gold Glove article you posted.
As you probably know, I am not sold on Nady defensively, or offensively against even decent right handed pitching. However, if they can get rid of Klesko and even if they can’t, I would be all for Nady being the full time starter at LF first or 1B second, at least for the first two months of the 2006 season. Hopefully, this plus his past history would dispel whatever doubts (or meet whatever expectations) the team and its fans have about or for Nady. I am pretty sure he is a free agent after this year, so they need to make a big decision soon, but I could be wrong on this.
I don’t believe Nady’s a free agent after 2006. He got a major league contract when he was drafted, which meant he had to be on the 40 man roster, but free agency is earned after 6 years of major league service time, which is based on years spent in the majors. At most he’s eligible for arbitration.
Here’s a handy reference for FA and roster rules that I found today:
http://groups.msn.com/baseballforum/mlbgeneraltransactionrules.msnw
TW: Thanks for the info. If I understand it correctly, Nady has played enough in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 seasons to be credited with 3 full years of service time; he also has a fraction for his 2000 appearance. That would mean he is eligible for arbitration from 2006-2008. Did I get this right, or is it more complicated than that?
I believe Nady has just over 2+ years. He wouldn’t receive a full year of service time for 2004.
He may be in the Super Two arbitration category now, but that’s hard to figure out. His salary is different even without arbitration because of the draft deal.
TW: Okay, thanks again for the info. Maybe now I have it right. All of the info I looked at says that Nady now has 2.059 service years. If he doesn’t qualify as a Super Two, then I guess they can renew his contract this year (but I don’t know the rules on how much they have to pay him since he made more than the minimum in 2005), and have him arbitration eligible from 2007-2009. If he does qualify as a Super Two, then I was right on the 2006-2008 time frame.